OT: more from the resident alarmist

[Michael Terrell]

On Tuesday, February 25, 2020 at 4:03:23 PM UTC-5, edward...@gmail.com wrote:

On Tuesday, February 25, 2020 at 12:06:49 PM UTC-8, Whoey Louie wrote:
On Tuesday, February 25, 2020 at 10:09:39 AM UTC-5, Rick C wrote:
On Thursday, February 20, 2020 at 11:24:33 AM UTC-5, Rick C wrote:
On Tuesday, February 18, 2020 at 9:36:21 PM UTC-5, Rick C wrote:
On Sunday, February 16, 2020 at 9:24:03 AM UTC-5, Rick C wrote:
Another day of data makes the pattern more clear...

Feb 04 24553
Feb 05 28276 3723
Feb 06 31439 3163
Feb 07 34876 3437
Feb 08 37552 2676
Feb 09 40553 3001
Feb 10 43099 2546
Feb 11 45170 2071
Feb 12 59283 14113
Feb 13 64437 5154
Feb 14 67100 2663
Feb 15 69197 2097

This was the second smallest number of new infections other than the day before the criteria change. Of course this does not indicate the reason for the change. It could be the lack of facilities to process all the sick in the center of the contagion. Or it could be that the measures to prevent the spread of infection are starting to work.

In a similar manner, it appears the death rate is also leveling off, but the numbers are not as clear. Another day or two may provide more clear evidence.

Feb 04 492
Feb 05 565 73
Feb 06 638 73
Feb 07 724 86
Feb 08 813 89
Feb 09 910 97
Feb 10 1018 108
Feb 11 1115 97
Feb 12 1261 146
Feb 13 1383 122
Feb 14 1526 143
Feb 15 1669 143

Here is the more recent data...

Infections Deaths
Total New Total New
Feb 14 67100 2663 Feb 14 1526 143
Feb 15 69197 2097 Feb 15 1669 143
Feb 16 71329 2132 Feb 16 1775 106
Feb 17 73332 2003 Feb 17 1873 98
Feb 18 75198 1866 Feb 18 2009 136

The new infection rate seems to be dropping rather than increasing. The number of deaths had been dropping, but spiked on the last day.

All in all, this seems to show the measures taken to reduce the tide are starting to work.

The reported numbers from yesterday show a much lower rate of new cases, 502 vs. 1866 the previous day. The number of new deaths is stabilizing as well with yesterday's number at 117. It should start to drop significantly in a week or two as this number will lag the infections.

I am a bit concerned that it seems China has reverted to the previous method of counting infected patients. This may be the cause of the very low newly infected number from yesterday. It is less likely to impact the death count as these patients would have almost certainly have been tested and counted under both systems.

It appears the number of active cases has be dropping for nearly a week now. That's a clear indication that the Chinese have things under control and we are likely seeing the beginning of the end of this disease, at least in China.

The South Koreans seem to have some issues trying to contain the contagion and maybe Italy and Japan as well. We will see how this proceeds.

--

Rick C.

+--- Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
+--- Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

Are you even looking at the news? Italy now has the largest number of
cases outside Asia. The Lombardy (milan) region looks like China,
streets empty, restaurants empty, Veneto region is also hard hit.
Iran suddenly has cases. The deputy health minister was at the head
of a news conference yesterday, trying to minimize the situation.
People noticed he was sweating profusely, mopping his face. Today they announced hehas it. Nice job in how to contain it, go around in public
with obvious symptoms. The rate of cases outside China is growing
exponentially.
And with many of these cases now, health investigators have no idea
how it got transmitted into the new cases. In the past, they usually
could quickly identify the likely source. When it's spreading and
you don't know how, it's a prescription for a pandemic.

He is only interested in forwarding CCP propaganda. Without such faithful supporters, propaganda would not work. CCP is very good at manufacturing data and suppressing information. The numbers look too good to be truth. Look at what they do, not what they say. China remains shutdown. 400,000 (15K to 20k more every day) containers of stuffs are not being made. The world is living on the first half of the supply pipe. There is nothing at the second half. Problems/shortages will hit the world soon. Meanwhile, the ruling CCP party is too afraid to even have a meeting in the capital.

Two video conferences were livestreamed at the same time, today.

The Democrats were rambling about the virus, that there were no supplies to deal it. Gun control, women's rights and that there was absolutely no current plans to deal with anything, but it would be all taken care of by the end of the year.

The other was the CDC giving details of their preparations, and that the people who had been on the cruise ship had been cleared their quarantine.

According to talk radio, the current survival rate is 98%.

 

[Bill Sloman]

On Wednesday, February 26, 2020 at 10:09:09 AM UTC+11, Michael Terrell wrote:

On Tuesday, February 25, 2020 at 4:03:23 PM UTC-5, edward...@gmail.com wrote:
On Tuesday, February 25, 2020 at 12:06:49 PM UTC-8, Whoey Louie wrote:
On Tuesday, February 25, 2020 at 10:09:39 AM UTC-5, Rick C wrote:
On Thursday, February 20, 2020 at 11:24:33 AM UTC-5, Rick C wrote:
On Tuesday, February 18, 2020 at 9:36:21 PM UTC-5, Rick C wrote:
On Sunday, February 16, 2020 at 9:24:03 AM UTC-5, Rick C wrote:
Another day of data makes the pattern more clear...

Feb 04 24553
Feb 05 28276 3723
Feb 06 31439 3163
Feb 07 34876 3437
Feb 08 37552 2676
Feb 09 40553 3001
Feb 10 43099 2546
Feb 11 45170 2071
Feb 12 59283 14113
Feb 13 64437 5154
Feb 14 67100 2663
Feb 15 69197 2097

This was the second smallest number of new infections other than the day before the criteria change. Of course this does not indicate the reason for the change. It could be the lack of facilities to process all the sick in the center of the contagion. Or it could be that the measures to prevent the spread of infection are starting to work.

In a similar manner, it appears the death rate is also leveling off, but the numbers are not as clear. Another day or two may provide more clear evidence.

Feb 04 492
Feb 05 565 73
Feb 06 638 73
Feb 07 724 86
Feb 08 813 89
Feb 09 910 97
Feb 10 1018 108
Feb 11 1115 97
Feb 12 1261 146
Feb 13 1383 122
Feb 14 1526 143
Feb 15 1669 143

Here is the more recent data...

Infections Deaths
Total New Total New
Feb 14 67100 2663 Feb 14 1526 143
Feb 15 69197 2097 Feb 15 1669 143
Feb 16 71329 2132 Feb 16 1775 106
Feb 17 73332 2003 Feb 17 1873 98
Feb 18 75198 1866 Feb 18 2009 136

The new infection rate seems to be dropping rather than increasing. The number of deaths had been dropping, but spiked on the last day.

All in all, this seems to show the measures taken to reduce the tide are starting to work.

The reported numbers from yesterday show a much lower rate of new cases, 502 vs. 1866 the previous day. The number of new deaths is stabilizing as well with yesterday's number at 117. It should start to drop significantly in a week or two as this number will lag the infections.

I am a bit concerned that it seems China has reverted to the previous method of counting infected patients. This may be the cause of the very low newly infected number from yesterday. It is less likely to impact the death count as these patients would have almost certainly have been tested and counted under both systems.

It appears the number of active cases has be dropping for nearly a week now. That's a clear indication that the Chinese have things under control and we are likely seeing the beginning of the end of this disease, at least in China.

The South Koreans seem to have some issues trying to contain the contagion and maybe Italy and Japan as well. We will see how this proceeds.

--

Rick C.

+--- Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
+--- Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

Are you even looking at the news? Italy now has the largest number of
cases outside Asia. The Lombardy (milan) region looks like China,
streets empty, restaurants empty, Veneto region is also hard hit.
Iran suddenly has cases. The deputy health minister was at the head
of a news conference yesterday, trying to minimize the situation.
People noticed he was sweating profusely, mopping his face. Today they announced hehas it. Nice job in how to contain it, go around in public
with obvious symptoms. The rate of cases outside China is growing
exponentially.
And with many of these cases now, health investigators have no idea
how it got transmitted into the new cases. In the past, they usually
could quickly identify the likely source. When it's spreading and
you don't know how, it's a prescription for a pandemic.

He is only interested in forwarding CCP propaganda. Without such faithful supporters, propaganda would not work. CCP is very good at manufacturing data and suppressing information. The numbers look too good to be truth.. Look at what they do, not what they say. China remains shutdown. 400,000 (15K to 20k more every day) containers of stuffs are not being made. The world is living on the first half of the supply pipe. There is nothing at the second half. Problems/shortages will hit the world soon. Meanwhile, the ruling CCP party is too afraid to even have a meeting in the capital.


Two video conferences were livestreamed at the same time, today.

The Democrats were rambling about the virus, that there were no supplies to deal it. Gun control, women's rights and that there was absolutely no current plans to deal with anything, but it would be all taken care of by the end of the year.

The other was the CDC giving details of their preparations, and that the people who had been on the cruise ship had been cleared their quarantine..

According to talk radio, the current survival rate is 98%.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

has a long page on why it is too early to make claims about the survival rate.

The 98% figure just takes the number known to be infected so far - some 80,000 - and the number who have died so far - 2712 - and ignores the 9,212 who are still seriously or critically ill, perhaps half of whom may end up dead.

That's actually 96.7% survival rate, so there is some wishfull thinking built into it.

It looks very much as if the China figures underestimate the number infected - you had to get visibly ill to get tested - so the number infected so far is probably low, but we've got no idea how low. Lock-down works even when you don't know exactly who is infected, but contact tracing doesn't work all that well if you can't identify some of the people who passed on the infection.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

 

[Whoey Louie]

On Tuesday, February 25, 2020 at 6:30:18 PM UTC-5, Rick C wrote:

On Tuesday, February 25, 2020 at 3:06:49 PM UTC-5, Whoey Louie wrote:
On Tuesday, February 25, 2020 at 10:09:39 AM UTC-5, Rick C wrote:
On Thursday, February 20, 2020 at 11:24:33 AM UTC-5, Rick C wrote:
On Tuesday, February 18, 2020 at 9:36:21 PM UTC-5, Rick C wrote:
On Sunday, February 16, 2020 at 9:24:03 AM UTC-5, Rick C wrote:
Another day of data makes the pattern more clear...

Feb 04 24553
Feb 05 28276 3723
Feb 06 31439 3163
Feb 07 34876 3437
Feb 08 37552 2676
Feb 09 40553 3001
Feb 10 43099 2546
Feb 11 45170 2071
Feb 12 59283 14113
Feb 13 64437 5154
Feb 14 67100 2663
Feb 15 69197 2097

This was the second smallest number of new infections other than the day before the criteria change. Of course this does not indicate the reason for the change. It could be the lack of facilities to process all the sick in the center of the contagion. Or it could be that the measures to prevent the spread of infection are starting to work.

In a similar manner, it appears the death rate is also leveling off, but the numbers are not as clear. Another day or two may provide more clear evidence.

Feb 04 492
Feb 05 565 73
Feb 06 638 73
Feb 07 724 86
Feb 08 813 89
Feb 09 910 97
Feb 10 1018 108
Feb 11 1115 97
Feb 12 1261 146
Feb 13 1383 122
Feb 14 1526 143
Feb 15 1669 143

Here is the more recent data...

Infections Deaths
Total New Total New
Feb 14 67100 2663 Feb 14 1526 143
Feb 15 69197 2097 Feb 15 1669 143
Feb 16 71329 2132 Feb 16 1775 106
Feb 17 73332 2003 Feb 17 1873 98
Feb 18 75198 1866 Feb 18 2009 136

The new infection rate seems to be dropping rather than increasing. The number of deaths had been dropping, but spiked on the last day.

All in all, this seems to show the measures taken to reduce the tide are starting to work.

The reported numbers from yesterday show a much lower rate of new cases, 502 vs. 1866 the previous day. The number of new deaths is stabilizing as well with yesterday's number at 117. It should start to drop significantly in a week or two as this number will lag the infections.

I am a bit concerned that it seems China has reverted to the previous method of counting infected patients. This may be the cause of the very low newly infected number from yesterday. It is less likely to impact the death count as these patients would have almost certainly have been tested and counted under both systems.

It appears the number of active cases has be dropping for nearly a week now. That's a clear indication that the Chinese have things under control and we are likely seeing the beginning of the end of this disease, at least in China.

The South Koreans seem to have some issues trying to contain the contagion and maybe Italy and Japan as well. We will see how this proceeds.

--

Rick C.

+--- Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
+--- Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

Are you even looking at the news? Italy now has the largest number of
cases outside Asia. The Lombardy (milan) region looks like China,
streets empty, restaurants empty, Veneto region is also hard hit.
Iran suddenly has cases. The deputy health minister was at the head
of a news conference yesterday, trying to minimize the situation.
People noticed he was sweating profusely, mopping his face. Today they announced hehas it. Nice job in how to contain it, go around in public
with obvious symptoms. The rate of cases outside China is growing
exponentially.
And with many of these cases now, health investigators have no idea
how it got transmitted into the new cases. In the past, they usually
could quickly identify the likely source. When it's spreading and
you don't know how, it's a prescription for a pandemic.

A message I was typing got blown away, or it will show up briefly.

This is the sort of BS I am talking about. It doesn't matter how empty the streets are. That's because of measures to stop the spread.

The numbers for Italy I've seen put it behind S. Korea and the diamond princess cruise ship. Way behind S. Korea which has nearly 1,000 infected with Italy a third of that.

The issue is if the methods of stopping the spread that China is using will work elsewhere. We will find out.

--

The issue is the measures are not working, that's why it's in 41 countries and growing exponentially outside China. And the China numbers are suspect. And no cases in Africa? Soon we'll probably find out there are actually thousands there and not identified and reported for obvious reasons.

 

On Tuesday, February 25, 2020 at 3:33:00 PM UTC-8, Rick C wrote:

On Tuesday, February 25, 2020 at 4:03:23 PM UTC-5, edward...@gmail.com wrote:
On Tuesday, February 25, 2020 at 12:06:49 PM UTC-8, Whoey Louie wrote:
On Tuesday, February 25, 2020 at 10:09:39 AM UTC-5, Rick C wrote:
On Thursday, February 20, 2020 at 11:24:33 AM UTC-5, Rick C wrote:
On Tuesday, February 18, 2020 at 9:36:21 PM UTC-5, Rick C wrote:
On Sunday, February 16, 2020 at 9:24:03 AM UTC-5, Rick C wrote:
Another day of data makes the pattern more clear...

Feb 04 24553
Feb 05 28276 3723
Feb 06 31439 3163
Feb 07 34876 3437
Feb 08 37552 2676
Feb 09 40553 3001
Feb 10 43099 2546
Feb 11 45170 2071
Feb 12 59283 14113
Feb 13 64437 5154
Feb 14 67100 2663
Feb 15 69197 2097

This was the second smallest number of new infections other than the day before the criteria change. Of course this does not indicate the reason for the change. It could be the lack of facilities to process all the sick in the center of the contagion. Or it could be that the measures to prevent the spread of infection are starting to work.

In a similar manner, it appears the death rate is also leveling off, but the numbers are not as clear. Another day or two may provide more clear evidence.

Feb 04 492
Feb 05 565 73
Feb 06 638 73
Feb 07 724 86
Feb 08 813 89
Feb 09 910 97
Feb 10 1018 108
Feb 11 1115 97
Feb 12 1261 146
Feb 13 1383 122
Feb 14 1526 143
Feb 15 1669 143

Here is the more recent data...

Infections Deaths
Total New Total New
Feb 14 67100 2663 Feb 14 1526 143
Feb 15 69197 2097 Feb 15 1669 143
Feb 16 71329 2132 Feb 16 1775 106
Feb 17 73332 2003 Feb 17 1873 98
Feb 18 75198 1866 Feb 18 2009 136

The new infection rate seems to be dropping rather than increasing. The number of deaths had been dropping, but spiked on the last day.

All in all, this seems to show the measures taken to reduce the tide are starting to work.

The reported numbers from yesterday show a much lower rate of new cases, 502 vs. 1866 the previous day. The number of new deaths is stabilizing as well with yesterday's number at 117. It should start to drop significantly in a week or two as this number will lag the infections.

I am a bit concerned that it seems China has reverted to the previous method of counting infected patients. This may be the cause of the very low newly infected number from yesterday. It is less likely to impact the death count as these patients would have almost certainly have been tested and counted under both systems.

It appears the number of active cases has be dropping for nearly a week now. That's a clear indication that the Chinese have things under control and we are likely seeing the beginning of the end of this disease, at least in China.

The South Koreans seem to have some issues trying to contain the contagion and maybe Italy and Japan as well. We will see how this proceeds.

--

Rick C.

+--- Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
+--- Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

Are you even looking at the news? Italy now has the largest number of
cases outside Asia. The Lombardy (milan) region looks like China,
streets empty, restaurants empty, Veneto region is also hard hit.
Iran suddenly has cases. The deputy health minister was at the head
of a news conference yesterday, trying to minimize the situation.
People noticed he was sweating profusely, mopping his face. Today they announced hehas it. Nice job in how to contain it, go around in public
with obvious symptoms. The rate of cases outside China is growing
exponentially.
And with many of these cases now, health investigators have no idea
how it got transmitted into the new cases. In the past, they usually
could quickly identify the likely source. When it's spreading and
you don't know how, it's a prescription for a pandemic.

He is only interested in forwarding CCP propaganda. Without such faithful supporters, propaganda would not work. CCP is very good at manufacturing data and suppressing information. The numbers look too good to be truth.. Look at what they do, not what they say. China remains shutdown. 400,000 (15K to 20k more every day) containers of stuffs are not being made. The world is living on the first half of the supply pipe. There is nothing at the second half. Problems/shortages will hit the world soon. Meanwhile, the ruling CCP party is too afraid to even have a meeting in the capital.

Of course China is shut down. That is how they are containing the virus. This is not a disease that will go way by getting it heading in the right direction and then giving up.

Can you explain why China continuing to lock down cities is not reducing the spread of the disease? I mean a real explanation. Oh, wait, you won't give one of those. You aren't capable.

They aren't capable of going to the hospital and becoming the statistic. Each locked up area is a tiny Diamond Princess. It will be released eventually.

By the way, they are planning 30000 more beds or so in WuHan. The infected number will always match the number of beds.

 

[Whoey Louie]

On Tuesday, February 25, 2020 at 6:32:35 PM UTC-5, Bill Sloman wrote:

On Wednesday, February 26, 2020 at 8:41:43 AM UTC+11, Whoey Louie wrote:
On Tuesday, February 25, 2020 at 4:03:23 PM UTC-5, edward...@gmail.com wrote:
On Tuesday, February 25, 2020 at 12:06:49 PM UTC-8, Whoey Louie wrote:
On Tuesday, February 25, 2020 at 10:09:39 AM UTC-5, Rick C wrote:
On Thursday, February 20, 2020 at 11:24:33 AM UTC-5, Rick C wrote:
On Tuesday, February 18, 2020 at 9:36:21 PM UTC-5, Rick C wrote:
On Sunday, February 16, 2020 at 9:24:03 AM UTC-5, Rick C wrote:
Another day of data makes the pattern more clear...

Feb 04 24553
Feb 05 28276 3723
Feb 06 31439 3163
Feb 07 34876 3437
Feb 08 37552 2676
Feb 09 40553 3001
Feb 10 43099 2546
Feb 11 45170 2071
Feb 12 59283 14113
Feb 13 64437 5154
Feb 14 67100 2663
Feb 15 69197 2097

This was the second smallest number of new infections other than the day before the criteria change. Of course this does not indicate the reason for the change. It could be the lack of facilities to process all the sick in the center of the contagion. Or it could be that the measures to prevent the spread of infection are starting to work.

In a similar manner, it appears the death rate is also leveling off, but the numbers are not as clear. Another day or two may provide more clear evidence.

Feb 04 492
Feb 05 565 73
Feb 06 638 73
Feb 07 724 86
Feb 08 813 89
Feb 09 910 97
Feb 10 1018 108
Feb 11 1115 97
Feb 12 1261 146
Feb 13 1383 122
Feb 14 1526 143
Feb 15 1669 143

Here is the more recent data...

Infections Deaths
Total New Total New
Feb 14 67100 2663 Feb 14 1526 143
Feb 15 69197 2097 Feb 15 1669 143
Feb 16 71329 2132 Feb 16 1775 106
Feb 17 73332 2003 Feb 17 1873 98
Feb 18 75198 1866 Feb 18 2009 136

The new infection rate seems to be dropping rather than increasing. The number of deaths had been dropping, but spiked on the last day.

All in all, this seems to show the measures taken to reduce the tide are starting to work.

The reported numbers from yesterday show a much lower rate of new cases, 502 vs. 1866 the previous day. The number of new deaths is stabilizing as well with yesterday's number at 117. It should start to drop significantly in a week or two as this number will lag the infections.

I am a bit concerned that it seems China has reverted to the previous method of counting infected patients. This may be the cause of the very low newly infected number from yesterday. It is less likely to impact the death count as these patients would have almost certainly have been tested and counted under both systems.

It appears the number of active cases has be dropping for nearly a week now. That's a clear indication that the Chinese have things under control and we are likely seeing the beginning of the end of this disease, at least in China.

The South Koreans seem to have some issues trying to contain the contagion and maybe Italy and Japan as well. We will see how this proceeds..

Are you even looking at the news? Italy now has the largest number of
cases outside Asia. The Lombardy (milan) region looks like China,
streets empty, restaurants empty, Veneto region is also hard hit.
Iran suddenly has cases. The deputy health minister was at the head
of a news conference yesterday, trying to minimize the situation.
People noticed he was sweating profusely, mopping his face. Today they
announced hehas it. Nice job in how to contain it, go around in public
with obvious symptoms. The rate of cases outside China is growing
exponentially.

In some places. Anywhere where they can quarantine travellers from infected areas and keep them isolated for a fortnight hasn't got exponential growth.

And with many of these cases now, health investigators have no idea
how it got transmitted into the new cases.

They've got a pretty exact idea of how it got transmitted, but they haven't yet identified the person who spread the infection. That takes contact tracing, which is labour intensive. Putting an area into lock-down saves you the contact tracing, but it messes up a lot more peoples life (and the local economy).

In the past, they usually
could quickly identify the likely source. When it's spreading and
you don't know how, it's a prescription for a pandemic.

It's one of the necessary pre-conditions for a pandemic. Lock-down has prevented a pandemic in China - though it wasn't put in palce as early as it could have been and the certainly got an epidemoc in Hubei Province.

He is only interested in forwarding CCP propaganda. Without such faithful supporters, propaganda would not work. CCP is very good at manufacturing data and suppressing information. The numbers look too good to be truth. Look at what they do, not what they say. China remains shutdown.

And may need to stay there for perhaps another week.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

reports just seven new cases for China, which probably come from the medical staff looking after the 38,000 active cases.

400,000 (15K to 20k more every day) containers of stuffs are not being made. The world is living on the first half of the supply pipe. There is nothing at the second half. Problems/shortages will hit the world soon. Meanwhile, the ruling CCP party is too afraid to even have a meeting in the capital.

So they do have some grasp of reality. The Italian Deputy Health Minister clearly didn't, so he got infected.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

The Chinese number of new cases that went down recently while cases are growing exponentially outside China make the China numbers look suspect.

Only to an idiot like Whoey Louie.

China put large chunks of the country in lock-down, which reduces the number of people who get infected by people who have the disease without showing symptoms.

Without lockdown, each new case infects perhaps three more people before it becomes visible. With lock down, it there is quite a good chance that anybody who develops the disease won't infect anybody else before they develop visible symptoms and get whisked into quarantine.

The above is from the village idiot who claims the death rate is 20%. Nuff said about that.

 

[Whoey Louie]

On Tuesday, February 25, 2020 at 6:33:00 PM UTC-5, Rick C wrote:

On Tuesday, February 25, 2020 at 4:03:23 PM UTC-5, edward...@gmail.com wrote:
On Tuesday, February 25, 2020 at 12:06:49 PM UTC-8, Whoey Louie wrote:
On Tuesday, February 25, 2020 at 10:09:39 AM UTC-5, Rick C wrote:
On Thursday, February 20, 2020 at 11:24:33 AM UTC-5, Rick C wrote:
On Tuesday, February 18, 2020 at 9:36:21 PM UTC-5, Rick C wrote:
On Sunday, February 16, 2020 at 9:24:03 AM UTC-5, Rick C wrote:
Another day of data makes the pattern more clear...

Feb 04 24553
Feb 05 28276 3723
Feb 06 31439 3163
Feb 07 34876 3437
Feb 08 37552 2676
Feb 09 40553 3001
Feb 10 43099 2546
Feb 11 45170 2071
Feb 12 59283 14113
Feb 13 64437 5154
Feb 14 67100 2663
Feb 15 69197 2097

This was the second smallest number of new infections other than the day before the criteria change. Of course this does not indicate the reason for the change. It could be the lack of facilities to process all the sick in the center of the contagion. Or it could be that the measures to prevent the spread of infection are starting to work.

In a similar manner, it appears the death rate is also leveling off, but the numbers are not as clear. Another day or two may provide more clear evidence.

Feb 04 492
Feb 05 565 73
Feb 06 638 73
Feb 07 724 86
Feb 08 813 89
Feb 09 910 97
Feb 10 1018 108
Feb 11 1115 97
Feb 12 1261 146
Feb 13 1383 122
Feb 14 1526 143
Feb 15 1669 143

Here is the more recent data...

Infections Deaths
Total New Total New
Feb 14 67100 2663 Feb 14 1526 143
Feb 15 69197 2097 Feb 15 1669 143
Feb 16 71329 2132 Feb 16 1775 106
Feb 17 73332 2003 Feb 17 1873 98
Feb 18 75198 1866 Feb 18 2009 136

The new infection rate seems to be dropping rather than increasing. The number of deaths had been dropping, but spiked on the last day.

All in all, this seems to show the measures taken to reduce the tide are starting to work.

The reported numbers from yesterday show a much lower rate of new cases, 502 vs. 1866 the previous day. The number of new deaths is stabilizing as well with yesterday's number at 117. It should start to drop significantly in a week or two as this number will lag the infections.

I am a bit concerned that it seems China has reverted to the previous method of counting infected patients. This may be the cause of the very low newly infected number from yesterday. It is less likely to impact the death count as these patients would have almost certainly have been tested and counted under both systems.

It appears the number of active cases has be dropping for nearly a week now. That's a clear indication that the Chinese have things under control and we are likely seeing the beginning of the end of this disease, at least in China.

The South Koreans seem to have some issues trying to contain the contagion and maybe Italy and Japan as well. We will see how this proceeds.

--

Rick C.

+--- Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
+--- Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

Are you even looking at the news? Italy now has the largest number of
cases outside Asia. The Lombardy (milan) region looks like China,
streets empty, restaurants empty, Veneto region is also hard hit.
Iran suddenly has cases. The deputy health minister was at the head
of a news conference yesterday, trying to minimize the situation.
People noticed he was sweating profusely, mopping his face. Today they announced hehas it. Nice job in how to contain it, go around in public
with obvious symptoms. The rate of cases outside China is growing
exponentially.
And with many of these cases now, health investigators have no idea
how it got transmitted into the new cases. In the past, they usually
could quickly identify the likely source. When it's spreading and
you don't know how, it's a prescription for a pandemic.

He is only interested in forwarding CCP propaganda. Without such faithful supporters, propaganda would not work. CCP is very good at manufacturing data and suppressing information. The numbers look too good to be truth.. Look at what they do, not what they say. China remains shutdown. 400,000 (15K to 20k more every day) containers of stuffs are not being made. The world is living on the first half of the supply pipe. There is nothing at the second half. Problems/shortages will hit the world soon. Meanwhile, the ruling CCP party is too afraid to even have a meeting in the capital.

Of course China is shut down.

OH my, that's alarmist!



That is how they are containing the virus.

Even if you believe the numbers, it's still steadily spreading.

This is not a disease that will go way by getting it heading in the right direction and then giving up.

Can you explain why China continuing to lock down cities is not reducing the spread of the disease? I mean a real explanation. Oh, wait, you won't give one of those. You aren't capable.

That's alarmist!


--

Rick C.

-+ Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
-+ Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

 

[Bill Sloman]

On Wednesday, February 26, 2020 at 12:15:43 PM UTC+11, edward...@gmail.com wrote:

On Tuesday, February 25, 2020 at 3:33:00 PM UTC-8, Rick C wrote:
On Tuesday, February 25, 2020 at 4:03:23 PM UTC-5, edward...@gmail.com wrote:
On Tuesday, February 25, 2020 at 12:06:49 PM UTC-8, Whoey Louie wrote:
On Tuesday, February 25, 2020 at 10:09:39 AM UTC-5, Rick C wrote:
On Thursday, February 20, 2020 at 11:24:33 AM UTC-5, Rick C wrote:
On Tuesday, February 18, 2020 at 9:36:21 PM UTC-5, Rick C wrote:
On Sunday, February 16, 2020 at 9:24:03 AM UTC-5, Rick C wrote:

<snip>

> > Can you explain why China continuing to lock down cities is not reducing the spread of the disease?

Today's new cases for China totalled 406. A week or so ago that was around 1500. They haven't eliminated new infections, but they have certainly slowed down the rate at which the disease is spreading.

> I mean a real explanation. Oh, wait, you won't give one of those. You aren't capable.

Nobody is capable of telling Edward anything that he has decided that he doesn't want to understand. The problem is with Edward rather than the explanations.

> They aren't capable of going to the hospital and becoming the statistic.

They get dragged out of their apartments and taken to hospital as soon as anybody notices that they look sick. The police scan everybody they run into for fever symptoms. Going to hospital isn't always a voluntary choice.

> Each locked up area is a tiny Diamond Princess. It will be released eventually.

The Diamond Princess was a rather poor example of lock-down. The people weren't isolated well enough to prevent cross-infection, probably because the ships crew hadn't been instructed what they had to do to prevent cross-infectionin enough detail - though there might not have been enough of them to manage the extra labour involved in doing it right. The ship wasn't designed to serve as an isolation ward.

> By the way, they are planning 30000 more beds or so in WuHan. The infected number will always match the number of beds.

Don't be silly.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

 

[Bill Sloman]

On Wednesday, February 26, 2020 at 12:47:00 PM UTC+11, Whoey Louie wrote:

On Tuesday, February 25, 2020 at 6:32:35 PM UTC-5, Bill Sloman wrote:
On Wednesday, February 26, 2020 at 8:41:43 AM UTC+11, Whoey Louie wrote:
On Tuesday, February 25, 2020 at 4:03:23 PM UTC-5, edward...@gmail.com wrote:
On Tuesday, February 25, 2020 at 12:06:49 PM UTC-8, Whoey Louie wrote:
On Tuesday, February 25, 2020 at 10:09:39 AM UTC-5, Rick C wrote:
On Thursday, February 20, 2020 at 11:24:33 AM UTC-5, Rick C wrote:
On Tuesday, February 18, 2020 at 9:36:21 PM UTC-5, Rick C wrote:
On Sunday, February 16, 2020 at 9:24:03 AM UTC-5, Rick C wrote:

<snip>

Without lockdown, each new case infects perhaps three more people before it becomes visible. With lock down, it there is quite a good chance that anybody who develops the disease won't infect anybody else before they develop visible symptoms and get whisked into quarantine.

The above is from the village idiot who claims the death rate is 20%. Nuff said about that.

This is from the village idiot who counter-claimed that it was 2%, and failed to explain - then or later - where he got his figure from.

I at least explained how I'd come up with my figure, and did point out that why it had it's own uncertainties.

It's fairly obvious where Whoie Louie got his estimate from - total deaths divided by total cases - and even somebody as stupid as he is should have been able to see that it was worthless (since most of his total cases were still sick and about 20% of them were seriously ill or critical and at substantial risk of ending up dead.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

 

[Bill Sloman]

On Wednesday, February 26, 2020 at 12:47:00 PM UTC+11, Whoey Louie wrote:

On Tuesday, February 25, 2020 at 6:32:35 PM UTC-5, Bill Sloman wrote:
On Wednesday, February 26, 2020 at 8:41:43 AM UTC+11, Whoey Louie wrote:
On Tuesday, February 25, 2020 at 4:03:23 PM UTC-5, edward...@gmail.com wrote:
On Tuesday, February 25, 2020 at 12:06:49 PM UTC-8, Whoey Louie wrote:
On Tuesday, February 25, 2020 at 10:09:39 AM UTC-5, Rick C wrote:
On Thursday, February 20, 2020 at 11:24:33 AM UTC-5, Rick C wrote:
On Tuesday, February 18, 2020 at 9:36:21 PM UTC-5, Rick C wrote:
On Sunday, February 16, 2020 at 9:24:03 AM UTC-5, Rick C wrote:
Another day of data makes the pattern more clear...

Feb 04 24553
Feb 05 28276 3723
Feb 06 31439 3163
Feb 07 34876 3437
Feb 08 37552 2676
Feb 09 40553 3001
Feb 10 43099 2546
Feb 11 45170 2071
Feb 12 59283 14113
Feb 13 64437 5154
Feb 14 67100 2663
Feb 15 69197 2097

This was the second smallest number of new infections other than the day before the criteria change. Of course this does not indicate the reason for the change. It could be the lack of facilities to process all the sick in the center of the contagion. Or it could be that the measures to prevent the spread of infection are starting to work.

In a similar manner, it appears the death rate is also leveling off, but the numbers are not as clear. Another day or two may provide more clear evidence.

Feb 04 492
Feb 05 565 73
Feb 06 638 73
Feb 07 724 86
Feb 08 813 89
Feb 09 910 97
Feb 10 1018 108
Feb 11 1115 97
Feb 12 1261 146
Feb 13 1383 122
Feb 14 1526 143
Feb 15 1669 143

Here is the more recent data...

Infections Deaths
Total New Total New
Feb 14 67100 2663 Feb 14 1526 143
Feb 15 69197 2097 Feb 15 1669 143
Feb 16 71329 2132 Feb 16 1775 106
Feb 17 73332 2003 Feb 17 1873 98
Feb 18 75198 1866 Feb 18 2009 136

The new infection rate seems to be dropping rather than increasing. The number of deaths had been dropping, but spiked on the last day.

All in all, this seems to show the measures taken to reduce the tide are starting to work.

The reported numbers from yesterday show a much lower rate of new cases, 502 vs. 1866 the previous day. The number of new deaths is stabilizing as well with yesterday's number at 117. It should start to drop significantly in a week or two as this number will lag the infections.

I am a bit concerned that it seems China has reverted to the previous method of counting infected patients. This may be the cause of the very low newly infected number from yesterday. It is less likely to impact the death count as these patients would have almost certainly have been tested and counted under both systems.

It appears the number of active cases has be dropping for nearly a week now. That's a clear indication that the Chinese have things under control and we are likely seeing the beginning of the end of this disease, at least in China.

The South Koreans seem to have some issues trying to contain the contagion and maybe Italy and Japan as well. We will see how this proceeds.

Are you even looking at the news? Italy now has the largest number of
cases outside Asia. The Lombardy (milan) region looks like China,
streets empty, restaurants empty, Veneto region is also hard hit.
Iran suddenly has cases. The deputy health minister was at the head
of a news conference yesterday, trying to minimize the situation.
People noticed he was sweating profusely, mopping his face. Today they
announced hehas it. Nice job in how to contain it, go around in public
with obvious symptoms. The rate of cases outside China is growing
exponentially.

In some places. Anywhere where they can quarantine travellers from infected areas and keep them isolated for a fortnight hasn't got exponential growth.

And with many of these cases now, health investigators have no idea
how it got transmitted into the new cases.

They've got a pretty exact idea of how it got transmitted, but they haven't yet identified the person who spread the infection. That takes contact tracing, which is labour intensive. Putting an area into lock-down saves you the contact tracing, but it messes up a lot more peoples life (and the local economy).

In the past, they usually
could quickly identify the likely source. When it's spreading and
you don't know how, it's a prescription for a pandemic.

It's one of the necessary pre-conditions for a pandemic. Lock-down has prevented a pandemic in China - though it wasn't put in palce as early as it could have been and the certainly got an epidemoc in Hubei Province.

He is only interested in forwarding CCP propaganda. Without such faithful supporters, propaganda would not work. CCP is very good at manufacturing data and suppressing information. The numbers look too good to be truth. Look at what they do, not what they say. China remains shutdown.

And may need to stay there for perhaps another week.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

reports just seven new cases for China, which probably come from the medical staff looking after the 38,000 active cases.

400,000 (15K to 20k more every day) containers of stuffs are not being made. The world is living on the first half of the supply pipe. There is nothing at the second half. Problems/shortages will hit the world soon. Meanwhile, the ruling CCP party is too afraid to even have a meeting in the capital.

So they do have some grasp of reality. The Italian Deputy Health Minister clearly didn't, so he got infected.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

The Chinese number of new cases that went down recently while cases are growing exponentially outside China make the China numbers look suspect.

Only to an idiot like Whoey Louie.

China put large chunks of the country in lock-down, which reduces the number of people who get infected by people who have the disease without showing symptoms.

Without lockdown, each new case infects perhaps three more people before it becomes visible. With lock down, it there is quite a good chance that anybody who develops the disease won't infect anybody else before they develop visible symptoms and get whisked into quarantine.

The above is from the village idiot who claims the death rate is 20%. Nuff said about that.

This from the village idiot who claimed that it was 2%. I had a rational basis for my estimate, and spelled out exactly why I had come up with that number (and what was potentially wrong with it) when you called me on it.

You still haven't recognised that your 2% estimate was rather sillier, or told us where you got it.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

 

[Bill Sloman]

On Wednesday, February 26, 2020 at 12:44:10 PM UTC+11, Whoey Louie wrote:

On Tuesday, February 25, 2020 at 6:30:18 PM UTC-5, Rick C wrote:
On Tuesday, February 25, 2020 at 3:06:49 PM UTC-5, Whoey Louie wrote:
On Tuesday, February 25, 2020 at 10:09:39 AM UTC-5, Rick C wrote:
On Thursday, February 20, 2020 at 11:24:33 AM UTC-5, Rick C wrote:
On Tuesday, February 18, 2020 at 9:36:21 PM UTC-5, Rick C wrote:
On Sunday, February 16, 2020 at 9:24:03 AM UTC-5, Rick C wrote:

<snip>

And with many of these cases now, health investigators have no idea
how it got transmitted into the new cases.

They've got a pretty exact idea of how. They don't know who from.

In the past, they usually
could quickly identify the likely source.

When you have very few cases, contact tracing works.

When it's spreading and
you don't know how, it's a prescription for a pandemic.

It's necessary condition for a pandemic, but not a sufficient one.

Lock-down can demonstrably stop and local epidemic developing into a pandemic, as it has in China.

This is the sort of BS I am talking about. It doesn't matter how empty the streets are. That's because of measures to stop the spread.

The numbers for Italy I've seen put it behind S. Korea and the diamond princess cruise ship. Way behind S. Korea which has nearly 1,000 infected with Italy a third of that.

The issue is if the methods of stopping the spread that China is using will work elsewhere. We will find out.

The issue is the measures are not working, that's why it's in 41 countries and growing exponentially outside China.

China didn't get onto the infection fast enough to stop people taking it elsewhere. Most places got potentially infected people into some kind of isolation for a fortnight, so that if they did have the disease they didn't spread it. Italy and Iran and South Korea didn't do that effectively enough.

> And the China numbers are suspect.

They aren't going to be 100% accurate, but they are more reliable than numbers dreamed up by some anxious idiot.

> And no cases in Africa? Soon we'll probably find out there are actually thousands there and not identified and reported for obvious reasons.

It's possible, but they don't have - or get - as many tourists as richer areas.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

 

[Whoey Louie]

On Tuesday, February 25, 2020 at 10:06:18 PM UTC-5, Bill Sloman wrote:

On Wednesday, February 26, 2020 at 12:47:00 PM UTC+11, Whoey Louie wrote:
On Tuesday, February 25, 2020 at 6:32:35 PM UTC-5, Bill Sloman wrote:
On Wednesday, February 26, 2020 at 8:41:43 AM UTC+11, Whoey Louie wrote:
On Tuesday, February 25, 2020 at 4:03:23 PM UTC-5, edward...@gmail.com wrote:
On Tuesday, February 25, 2020 at 12:06:49 PM UTC-8, Whoey Louie wrote:
On Tuesday, February 25, 2020 at 10:09:39 AM UTC-5, Rick C wrote:
On Thursday, February 20, 2020 at 11:24:33 AM UTC-5, Rick C wrote:
On Tuesday, February 18, 2020 at 9:36:21 PM UTC-5, Rick C wrote:
On Sunday, February 16, 2020 at 9:24:03 AM UTC-5, Rick C wrote:
Another day of data makes the pattern more clear...

Feb 04 24553
Feb 05 28276 3723
Feb 06 31439 3163
Feb 07 34876 3437
Feb 08 37552 2676
Feb 09 40553 3001
Feb 10 43099 2546
Feb 11 45170 2071
Feb 12 59283 14113
Feb 13 64437 5154
Feb 14 67100 2663
Feb 15 69197 2097

This was the second smallest number of new infections other than the day before the criteria change. Of course this does not indicate the reason for the change. It could be the lack of facilities to process all the sick in the center of the contagion. Or it could be that the measures to prevent the spread of infection are starting to work.

In a similar manner, it appears the death rate is also leveling off, but the numbers are not as clear. Another day or two may provide more clear evidence.

Feb 04 492
Feb 05 565 73
Feb 06 638 73
Feb 07 724 86
Feb 08 813 89
Feb 09 910 97
Feb 10 1018 108
Feb 11 1115 97
Feb 12 1261 146
Feb 13 1383 122
Feb 14 1526 143
Feb 15 1669 143

Here is the more recent data...

Infections Deaths
Total New Total New
Feb 14 67100 2663 Feb 14 1526 143
Feb 15 69197 2097 Feb 15 1669 143
Feb 16 71329 2132 Feb 16 1775 106
Feb 17 73332 2003 Feb 17 1873 98
Feb 18 75198 1866 Feb 18 2009 136

The new infection rate seems to be dropping rather than increasing. The number of deaths had been dropping, but spiked on the last day.

All in all, this seems to show the measures taken to reduce the tide are starting to work.

The reported numbers from yesterday show a much lower rate of new cases, 502 vs. 1866 the previous day. The number of new deaths is stabilizing as well with yesterday's number at 117. It should start to drop significantly in a week or two as this number will lag the infections.

I am a bit concerned that it seems China has reverted to the previous method of counting infected patients. This may be the cause of the very low newly infected number from yesterday. It is less likely to impact the death count as these patients would have almost certainly have been tested and counted under both systems.

It appears the number of active cases has be dropping for nearly a week now. That's a clear indication that the Chinese have things under control and we are likely seeing the beginning of the end of this disease, at least in China.

The South Koreans seem to have some issues trying to contain the contagion and maybe Italy and Japan as well. We will see how this proceeds.

Are you even looking at the news? Italy now has the largest number of
cases outside Asia. The Lombardy (milan) region looks like China,
streets empty, restaurants empty, Veneto region is also hard hit.
Iran suddenly has cases. The deputy health minister was at the head
of a news conference yesterday, trying to minimize the situation.
People noticed he was sweating profusely, mopping his face. Today they
announced hehas it. Nice job in how to contain it, go around in public
with obvious symptoms. The rate of cases outside China is growing
exponentially.

In some places. Anywhere where they can quarantine travellers from infected areas and keep them isolated for a fortnight hasn't got exponential growth.

And with many of these cases now, health investigators have no idea
how it got transmitted into the new cases.

They've got a pretty exact idea of how it got transmitted, but they haven't yet identified the person who spread the infection. That takes contact tracing, which is labour intensive. Putting an area into lock-down saves you the contact tracing, but it messes up a lot more peoples life (and the local economy).

In the past, they usually
could quickly identify the likely source. When it's spreading and
you don't know how, it's a prescription for a pandemic.

It's one of the necessary pre-conditions for a pandemic. Lock-down has prevented a pandemic in China - though it wasn't put in palce as early as it could have been and the certainly got an epidemoc in Hubei Province.

He is only interested in forwarding CCP propaganda. Without such faithful supporters, propaganda would not work. CCP is very good at manufacturing data and suppressing information. The numbers look too good to be truth. Look at what they do, not what they say. China remains shutdown.

And may need to stay there for perhaps another week.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

reports just seven new cases for China, which probably come from the medical staff looking after the 38,000 active cases.

400,000 (15K to 20k more every day) containers of stuffs are not being made. The world is living on the first half of the supply pipe. There is nothing at the second half. Problems/shortages will hit the world soon.. Meanwhile, the ruling CCP party is too afraid to even have a meeting in the capital.

So they do have some grasp of reality. The Italian Deputy Health Minister clearly didn't, so he got infected.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

The Chinese number of new cases that went down recently while cases are growing exponentially outside China make the China numbers look suspect.

Only to an idiot like Whoey Louie.

China put large chunks of the country in lock-down, which reduces the number of people who get infected by people who have the disease without showing symptoms.

Without lockdown, each new case infects perhaps three more people before it becomes visible. With lock down, it there is quite a good chance that anybody who develops the disease won't infect anybody else before they develop visible symptoms and get whisked into quarantine.

The above is from the village idiot who claims the death rate is 20%. Nuff said about that.

This from the village idiot who claimed that it was 2%. I had a rational basis for my estimate, and spelled out exactly why I had come up with that number (and what was potentially wrong with it) when you called me on it.

You still haven't recognised that your 2% estimate was rather sillier, or told us where you got it.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

Google broken down under, stupid?

 

[Whoey Louie]

On Tuesday, February 25, 2020 at 10:01:54 PM UTC-5, Bill Sloman wrote:

On Wednesday, February 26, 2020 at 12:44:10 PM UTC+11, Whoey Louie wrote:
On Tuesday, February 25, 2020 at 6:30:18 PM UTC-5, Rick C wrote:
On Tuesday, February 25, 2020 at 3:06:49 PM UTC-5, Whoey Louie wrote:
On Tuesday, February 25, 2020 at 10:09:39 AM UTC-5, Rick C wrote:
On Thursday, February 20, 2020 at 11:24:33 AM UTC-5, Rick C wrote:
On Tuesday, February 18, 2020 at 9:36:21 PM UTC-5, Rick C wrote:
On Sunday, February 16, 2020 at 9:24:03 AM UTC-5, Rick C wrote:

snip

And with many of these cases now, health investigators have no idea
how it got transmitted into the new cases.

They've got a pretty exact idea of how.

That's obviously BS, when you don't know who the source even was.


>They don't know who from.

Bingo, you don't know from who, so you also don't know how, obviously.

In the past, they usually
could quickly identify the likely source.

When you have very few cases, contact tracing works.

Italy and most other countries still have relatively low numbers.
But regardless, once you can't track it to confine it, then it's
well on it's way to a pandemic.

When it's spreading and
you don't know how, it's a prescription for a pandemic.

It's necessary condition for a pandemic, but not a sufficient one.

Lock-down can demonstrably stop and local epidemic developing into a pandemic, as it has in China.

This is the sort of BS I am talking about. It doesn't matter how empty the streets are. That's because of measures to stop the spread.

The numbers for Italy I've seen put it behind S. Korea and the diamond princess cruise ship. Way behind S. Korea which has nearly 1,000 infected with Italy a third of that.

The issue is if the methods of stopping the spread that China is using will work elsewhere. We will find out.

The issue is the measures are not working, that's why it's in 41 countries and growing exponentially outside China.

China didn't get onto the infection fast enough to stop people taking it elsewhere. Most places got potentially infected people into some kind of isolation for a fortnight, so that if they did have the disease they didn't spread it. Italy and Iran and South Korea didn't do that effectively enough.

And the China numbers are suspect.

They aren't going to be 100% accurate, but they are more reliable than numbers dreamed up by some anxious idiot.

That would be you. You've claimed here many times that the death rate
is 20%. Which is pure BS and shows that you don't even have the most
very basic of facts. The actual death rate is around 2% and that has
been all over the freaking media for a month.

 

[Whoey Louie]

On Wednesday, February 26, 2020 at 12:12:08 PM UTC-5, Rick C wrote:

On Tuesday, February 25, 2020 at 8:44:10 PM UTC-5, Whoey Louie wrote:
On Tuesday, February 25, 2020 at 6:30:18 PM UTC-5, Rick C wrote:
On Tuesday, February 25, 2020 at 3:06:49 PM UTC-5, Whoey Louie wrote:
On Tuesday, February 25, 2020 at 10:09:39 AM UTC-5, Rick C wrote:
On Thursday, February 20, 2020 at 11:24:33 AM UTC-5, Rick C wrote:
On Tuesday, February 18, 2020 at 9:36:21 PM UTC-5, Rick C wrote:
On Sunday, February 16, 2020 at 9:24:03 AM UTC-5, Rick C wrote:
Another day of data makes the pattern more clear...

Feb 04 24553
Feb 05 28276 3723
Feb 06 31439 3163
Feb 07 34876 3437
Feb 08 37552 2676
Feb 09 40553 3001
Feb 10 43099 2546
Feb 11 45170 2071
Feb 12 59283 14113
Feb 13 64437 5154
Feb 14 67100 2663
Feb 15 69197 2097

This was the second smallest number of new infections other than the day before the criteria change. Of course this does not indicate the reason for the change. It could be the lack of facilities to process all the sick in the center of the contagion. Or it could be that the measures to prevent the spread of infection are starting to work.

In a similar manner, it appears the death rate is also leveling off, but the numbers are not as clear. Another day or two may provide more clear evidence.

Feb 04 492
Feb 05 565 73
Feb 06 638 73
Feb 07 724 86
Feb 08 813 89
Feb 09 910 97
Feb 10 1018 108
Feb 11 1115 97
Feb 12 1261 146
Feb 13 1383 122
Feb 14 1526 143
Feb 15 1669 143

Here is the more recent data...

Infections Deaths
Total New Total New
Feb 14 67100 2663 Feb 14 1526 143
Feb 15 69197 2097 Feb 15 1669 143
Feb 16 71329 2132 Feb 16 1775 106
Feb 17 73332 2003 Feb 17 1873 98
Feb 18 75198 1866 Feb 18 2009 136

The new infection rate seems to be dropping rather than increasing. The number of deaths had been dropping, but spiked on the last day.

All in all, this seems to show the measures taken to reduce the tide are starting to work.

The reported numbers from yesterday show a much lower rate of new cases, 502 vs. 1866 the previous day. The number of new deaths is stabilizing as well with yesterday's number at 117. It should start to drop significantly in a week or two as this number will lag the infections.

I am a bit concerned that it seems China has reverted to the previous method of counting infected patients. This may be the cause of the very low newly infected number from yesterday. It is less likely to impact the death count as these patients would have almost certainly have been tested and counted under both systems.

It appears the number of active cases has be dropping for nearly a week now. That's a clear indication that the Chinese have things under control and we are likely seeing the beginning of the end of this disease, at least in China.

The South Koreans seem to have some issues trying to contain the contagion and maybe Italy and Japan as well. We will see how this proceeds..

--

Rick C.

+--- Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
+--- Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

Are you even looking at the news? Italy now has the largest number of
cases outside Asia. The Lombardy (milan) region looks like China,
streets empty, restaurants empty, Veneto region is also hard hit.
Iran suddenly has cases. The deputy health minister was at the head
of a news conference yesterday, trying to minimize the situation.
People noticed he was sweating profusely, mopping his face. Today they announced hehas it. Nice job in how to contain it, go around in public
with obvious symptoms. The rate of cases outside China is growing
exponentially.
And with many of these cases now, health investigators have no idea
how it got transmitted into the new cases. In the past, they usually
could quickly identify the likely source. When it's spreading and
you don't know how, it's a prescription for a pandemic.

A message I was typing got blown away, or it will show up briefly.

This is the sort of BS I am talking about. It doesn't matter how empty the streets are. That's because of measures to stop the spread.

The numbers for Italy I've seen put it behind S. Korea and the diamond princess cruise ship. Way behind S. Korea which has nearly 1,000 infected with Italy a third of that.

The issue is if the methods of stopping the spread that China is using will work elsewhere. We will find out.

--


The issue is the measures are not working, that's why it's in 41 countries and growing exponentially outside China. And the China numbers are suspect. And no cases in Africa? Soon we'll probably find out there are actually thousands there and not identified and reported for obvious reasons.

Why are the Chinese numbers suspect?

Because China has a history of lying, hiding, minimizing. Because
they won't allow experts from other countries in? And because
the numbers of new infections there have supposedly decreased
substantially, while in all other countries it's growing exponentially.
It could be that China is more successful or it could be they are lying.

 

[Whoey Louie]

On Wednesday, February 26, 2020 at 12:11:18 PM UTC-5, Rick C wrote:

On Tuesday, February 25, 2020 at 8:15:43 PM UTC-5, edward...@gmail.com wrote:
On Tuesday, February 25, 2020 at 3:33:00 PM UTC-8, Rick C wrote:

Of course China is shut down. That is how they are containing the virus. This is not a disease that will go way by getting it heading in the right direction and then giving up.

Can you explain why China continuing to lock down cities is not reducing the spread of the disease? I mean a real explanation. Oh, wait, you won't give one of those. You aren't capable.

They aren't capable of going to the hospital and becoming the statistic. Each locked up area is a tiny Diamond Princess. It will be released eventually.

Every illness and death on the Diamond Princess is tested and reported. Why do you think the city can't report their deaths accurately?

Because Japan had just one main hot spot, not thousands? Because
Japan's hospitals and facilities are not overwhelmed?
Because Japan is Japan and not China? Because China has a history
of lying, hiding, minimizing? What do you suppose is going on in North
Korea right now? They have zero cases, right? They are probably chock full
of Covid. And they have slave labor workers going all over Russia,
Africa, Mideast. There's a nice vector to spread it. And Africa
and similar, they wouldn't even know there is infection until it's
well on it's way.

Go ahead, call me alarmist.

By the way, they are planning 30000 more beds or so in WuHan. The infected number will always match the number of beds.

Not sure what you are trying to say with that. They are very short on hospital beds in Wuhan. The currently active cases is dropping daily. So clearly the number of cases is not controlled by the number of beds.

--

Rick C.

+- Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
+- Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

 

[Rick C]

On Tuesday, February 25, 2020 at 8:50:47 PM UTC-5, Whoey Louie wrote:

On Tuesday, February 25, 2020 at 6:33:00 PM UTC-5, Rick C wrote:
On Tuesday, February 25, 2020 at 4:03:23 PM UTC-5, edward...@gmail.com wrote:
On Tuesday, February 25, 2020 at 12:06:49 PM UTC-8, Whoey Louie wrote:
On Tuesday, February 25, 2020 at 10:09:39 AM UTC-5, Rick C wrote:
On Thursday, February 20, 2020 at 11:24:33 AM UTC-5, Rick C wrote:
On Tuesday, February 18, 2020 at 9:36:21 PM UTC-5, Rick C wrote:
On Sunday, February 16, 2020 at 9:24:03 AM UTC-5, Rick C wrote:
Another day of data makes the pattern more clear...

Feb 04 24553
Feb 05 28276 3723
Feb 06 31439 3163
Feb 07 34876 3437
Feb 08 37552 2676
Feb 09 40553 3001
Feb 10 43099 2546
Feb 11 45170 2071
Feb 12 59283 14113
Feb 13 64437 5154
Feb 14 67100 2663
Feb 15 69197 2097

This was the second smallest number of new infections other than the day before the criteria change. Of course this does not indicate the reason for the change. It could be the lack of facilities to process all the sick in the center of the contagion. Or it could be that the measures to prevent the spread of infection are starting to work.

In a similar manner, it appears the death rate is also leveling off, but the numbers are not as clear. Another day or two may provide more clear evidence.

Feb 04 492
Feb 05 565 73
Feb 06 638 73
Feb 07 724 86
Feb 08 813 89
Feb 09 910 97
Feb 10 1018 108
Feb 11 1115 97
Feb 12 1261 146
Feb 13 1383 122
Feb 14 1526 143
Feb 15 1669 143

Here is the more recent data...

Infections Deaths
Total New Total New
Feb 14 67100 2663 Feb 14 1526 143
Feb 15 69197 2097 Feb 15 1669 143
Feb 16 71329 2132 Feb 16 1775 106
Feb 17 73332 2003 Feb 17 1873 98
Feb 18 75198 1866 Feb 18 2009 136

The new infection rate seems to be dropping rather than increasing. The number of deaths had been dropping, but spiked on the last day.

All in all, this seems to show the measures taken to reduce the tide are starting to work.

The reported numbers from yesterday show a much lower rate of new cases, 502 vs. 1866 the previous day. The number of new deaths is stabilizing as well with yesterday's number at 117. It should start to drop significantly in a week or two as this number will lag the infections.

I am a bit concerned that it seems China has reverted to the previous method of counting infected patients. This may be the cause of the very low newly infected number from yesterday. It is less likely to impact the death count as these patients would have almost certainly have been tested and counted under both systems.

It appears the number of active cases has be dropping for nearly a week now. That's a clear indication that the Chinese have things under control and we are likely seeing the beginning of the end of this disease, at least in China.

The South Koreans seem to have some issues trying to contain the contagion and maybe Italy and Japan as well. We will see how this proceeds..

--

Rick C.

+--- Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
+--- Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

Are you even looking at the news? Italy now has the largest number of
cases outside Asia. The Lombardy (milan) region looks like China,
streets empty, restaurants empty, Veneto region is also hard hit.
Iran suddenly has cases. The deputy health minister was at the head
of a news conference yesterday, trying to minimize the situation.
People noticed he was sweating profusely, mopping his face. Today they announced hehas it. Nice job in how to contain it, go around in public
with obvious symptoms. The rate of cases outside China is growing
exponentially.
And with many of these cases now, health investigators have no idea
how it got transmitted into the new cases. In the past, they usually
could quickly identify the likely source. When it's spreading and
you don't know how, it's a prescription for a pandemic.

He is only interested in forwarding CCP propaganda. Without such faithful supporters, propaganda would not work. CCP is very good at manufacturing data and suppressing information. The numbers look too good to be truth. Look at what they do, not what they say. China remains shutdown. 400,000 (15K to 20k more every day) containers of stuffs are not being made. The world is living on the first half of the supply pipe. There is nothing at the second half. Problems/shortages will hit the world soon. Meanwhile, the ruling CCP party is too afraid to even have a meeting in the capital..

Of course China is shut down.

OH my, that's alarmist!



That is how they are containing the virus.

Even if you believe the numbers, it's still steadily spreading.

Not "steadily spreading", spreading at an ever decreasing rate. Even the new deaths are dropping on a daily basis.


> This is not a disease that will go way by getting it heading in the right direction and then giving up.

Why are you giving up then?

Can you explain why China continuing to lock down cities is not reducing the spread of the disease? I mean a real explanation. Oh, wait, you won't give one of those. You aren't capable.


That's alarmist!

What's alarmist? Noting that Edward is clearly biased and makes conclusions that are not supported by the facts?

--

Rick C.

--- Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
--- Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

 

[Rick C]

On Tuesday, February 25, 2020 at 8:44:10 PM UTC-5, Whoey Louie wrote:

On Tuesday, February 25, 2020 at 6:30:18 PM UTC-5, Rick C wrote:
On Tuesday, February 25, 2020 at 3:06:49 PM UTC-5, Whoey Louie wrote:
On Tuesday, February 25, 2020 at 10:09:39 AM UTC-5, Rick C wrote:
On Thursday, February 20, 2020 at 11:24:33 AM UTC-5, Rick C wrote:
On Tuesday, February 18, 2020 at 9:36:21 PM UTC-5, Rick C wrote:
On Sunday, February 16, 2020 at 9:24:03 AM UTC-5, Rick C wrote:
Another day of data makes the pattern more clear...

Feb 04 24553
Feb 05 28276 3723
Feb 06 31439 3163
Feb 07 34876 3437
Feb 08 37552 2676
Feb 09 40553 3001
Feb 10 43099 2546
Feb 11 45170 2071
Feb 12 59283 14113
Feb 13 64437 5154
Feb 14 67100 2663
Feb 15 69197 2097

This was the second smallest number of new infections other than the day before the criteria change. Of course this does not indicate the reason for the change. It could be the lack of facilities to process all the sick in the center of the contagion. Or it could be that the measures to prevent the spread of infection are starting to work.

In a similar manner, it appears the death rate is also leveling off, but the numbers are not as clear. Another day or two may provide more clear evidence.

Feb 04 492
Feb 05 565 73
Feb 06 638 73
Feb 07 724 86
Feb 08 813 89
Feb 09 910 97
Feb 10 1018 108
Feb 11 1115 97
Feb 12 1261 146
Feb 13 1383 122
Feb 14 1526 143
Feb 15 1669 143

Here is the more recent data...

Infections Deaths
Total New Total New
Feb 14 67100 2663 Feb 14 1526 143
Feb 15 69197 2097 Feb 15 1669 143
Feb 16 71329 2132 Feb 16 1775 106
Feb 17 73332 2003 Feb 17 1873 98
Feb 18 75198 1866 Feb 18 2009 136

The new infection rate seems to be dropping rather than increasing. The number of deaths had been dropping, but spiked on the last day.

All in all, this seems to show the measures taken to reduce the tide are starting to work.

The reported numbers from yesterday show a much lower rate of new cases, 502 vs. 1866 the previous day. The number of new deaths is stabilizing as well with yesterday's number at 117. It should start to drop significantly in a week or two as this number will lag the infections.

I am a bit concerned that it seems China has reverted to the previous method of counting infected patients. This may be the cause of the very low newly infected number from yesterday. It is less likely to impact the death count as these patients would have almost certainly have been tested and counted under both systems.

It appears the number of active cases has be dropping for nearly a week now. That's a clear indication that the Chinese have things under control and we are likely seeing the beginning of the end of this disease, at least in China.

The South Koreans seem to have some issues trying to contain the contagion and maybe Italy and Japan as well. We will see how this proceeds.

--

Rick C.

+--- Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
+--- Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

Are you even looking at the news? Italy now has the largest number of
cases outside Asia. The Lombardy (milan) region looks like China,
streets empty, restaurants empty, Veneto region is also hard hit.
Iran suddenly has cases. The deputy health minister was at the head
of a news conference yesterday, trying to minimize the situation.
People noticed he was sweating profusely, mopping his face. Today they announced hehas it. Nice job in how to contain it, go around in public
with obvious symptoms. The rate of cases outside China is growing
exponentially.
And with many of these cases now, health investigators have no idea
how it got transmitted into the new cases. In the past, they usually
could quickly identify the likely source. When it's spreading and
you don't know how, it's a prescription for a pandemic.

A message I was typing got blown away, or it will show up briefly.

This is the sort of BS I am talking about. It doesn't matter how empty the streets are. That's because of measures to stop the spread.

The numbers for Italy I've seen put it behind S. Korea and the diamond princess cruise ship. Way behind S. Korea which has nearly 1,000 infected with Italy a third of that.

The issue is if the methods of stopping the spread that China is using will work elsewhere. We will find out.

--


The issue is the measures are not working, that's why it's in 41 countries and growing exponentially outside China. And the China numbers are suspect. And no cases in Africa? Soon we'll probably find out there are actually thousands there and not identified and reported for obvious reasons.

Why are the Chinese numbers suspect?

--

Rick C.

++ Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
++ Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

 

[Rick C]

On Tuesday, February 25, 2020 at 8:15:43 PM UTC-5, edward...@gmail.com wrote:

On Tuesday, February 25, 2020 at 3:33:00 PM UTC-8, Rick C wrote:

Of course China is shut down. That is how they are containing the virus. This is not a disease that will go way by getting it heading in the right direction and then giving up.

Can you explain why China continuing to lock down cities is not reducing the spread of the disease? I mean a real explanation. Oh, wait, you won't give one of those. You aren't capable.

They aren't capable of going to the hospital and becoming the statistic. Each locked up area is a tiny Diamond Princess. It will be released eventually.

Every illness and death on the Diamond Princess is tested and reported. Why do you think the city can't report their deaths accurately?


> By the way, they are planning 30000 more beds or so in WuHan. The infected number will always match the number of beds.

Not sure what you are trying to say with that. They are very short on hospital beds in Wuhan. The currently active cases is dropping daily. So clearly the number of cases is not controlled by the number of beds.

--

Rick C.

+- Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
+- Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

 

[Rick C]

On Tuesday, February 25, 2020 at 9:42:42 PM UTC-5, Bill Sloman wrote:

On Wednesday, February 26, 2020 at 12:15:43 PM UTC+11, edward...@gmail.com wrote:
On Tuesday, February 25, 2020 at 3:33:00 PM UTC-8, Rick C wrote:
On Tuesday, February 25, 2020 at 4:03:23 PM UTC-5, edward...@gmail.com wrote:
On Tuesday, February 25, 2020 at 12:06:49 PM UTC-8, Whoey Louie wrote:
On Tuesday, February 25, 2020 at 10:09:39 AM UTC-5, Rick C wrote:
On Thursday, February 20, 2020 at 11:24:33 AM UTC-5, Rick C wrote:
On Tuesday, February 18, 2020 at 9:36:21 PM UTC-5, Rick C wrote:
On Sunday, February 16, 2020 at 9:24:03 AM UTC-5, Rick C wrote:

snip

Can you explain why China continuing to lock down cities is not reducing the spread of the disease?

Today's new cases for China totalled 406. A week or so ago that was around 1500. They haven't eliminated new infections, but they have certainly slowed down the rate at which the disease is spreading.

I mean a real explanation. Oh, wait, you won't give one of those. You aren't capable.

Nobody is capable of telling Edward anything that he has decided that he doesn't want to understand. The problem is with Edward rather than the explanations.

They aren't capable of going to the hospital and becoming the statistic..

They get dragged out of their apartments and taken to hospital as soon as anybody notices that they look sick. The police scan everybody they run into for fever symptoms. Going to hospital isn't always a voluntary choice.

No, not taken to the hospital. Taken to a quarantine center where they receive no care. The hospitals were over loaded some time ago. It's not clear that they even use these centers as a triage, selecting the critical patients and sending them to the hospitals.

The Chinese efforts at quarantine appear to be rather draconian and remind me of a British TV show I watched once where no one died. They could get sick and comatose, but never actually died. At some point they start burning bodies in mass crematoriums.

--

Rick C.

++ Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
++ Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

 

[Whoey Louie]

On Wednesday, February 26, 2020 at 12:35:48 PM UTC-5, Rick C wrote:

On Tuesday, February 25, 2020 at 8:50:47 PM UTC-5, Whoey Louie wrote:
On Tuesday, February 25, 2020 at 6:33:00 PM UTC-5, Rick C wrote:
On Tuesday, February 25, 2020 at 4:03:23 PM UTC-5, edward...@gmail.com wrote:
On Tuesday, February 25, 2020 at 12:06:49 PM UTC-8, Whoey Louie wrote:
On Tuesday, February 25, 2020 at 10:09:39 AM UTC-5, Rick C wrote:
On Thursday, February 20, 2020 at 11:24:33 AM UTC-5, Rick C wrote:
On Tuesday, February 18, 2020 at 9:36:21 PM UTC-5, Rick C wrote:
On Sunday, February 16, 2020 at 9:24:03 AM UTC-5, Rick C wrote:
Another day of data makes the pattern more clear...

Feb 04 24553
Feb 05 28276 3723
Feb 06 31439 3163
Feb 07 34876 3437
Feb 08 37552 2676
Feb 09 40553 3001
Feb 10 43099 2546
Feb 11 45170 2071
Feb 12 59283 14113
Feb 13 64437 5154
Feb 14 67100 2663
Feb 15 69197 2097

This was the second smallest number of new infections other than the day before the criteria change. Of course this does not indicate the reason for the change. It could be the lack of facilities to process all the sick in the center of the contagion. Or it could be that the measures to prevent the spread of infection are starting to work.

In a similar manner, it appears the death rate is also leveling off, but the numbers are not as clear. Another day or two may provide more clear evidence.

Feb 04 492
Feb 05 565 73
Feb 06 638 73
Feb 07 724 86
Feb 08 813 89
Feb 09 910 97
Feb 10 1018 108
Feb 11 1115 97
Feb 12 1261 146
Feb 13 1383 122
Feb 14 1526 143
Feb 15 1669 143

Here is the more recent data...

Infections Deaths
Total New Total New
Feb 14 67100 2663 Feb 14 1526 143
Feb 15 69197 2097 Feb 15 1669 143
Feb 16 71329 2132 Feb 16 1775 106
Feb 17 73332 2003 Feb 17 1873 98
Feb 18 75198 1866 Feb 18 2009 136

The new infection rate seems to be dropping rather than increasing. The number of deaths had been dropping, but spiked on the last day.

All in all, this seems to show the measures taken to reduce the tide are starting to work.

The reported numbers from yesterday show a much lower rate of new cases, 502 vs. 1866 the previous day. The number of new deaths is stabilizing as well with yesterday's number at 117. It should start to drop significantly in a week or two as this number will lag the infections.

I am a bit concerned that it seems China has reverted to the previous method of counting infected patients. This may be the cause of the very low newly infected number from yesterday. It is less likely to impact the death count as these patients would have almost certainly have been tested and counted under both systems.

It appears the number of active cases has be dropping for nearly a week now. That's a clear indication that the Chinese have things under control and we are likely seeing the beginning of the end of this disease, at least in China.

The South Koreans seem to have some issues trying to contain the contagion and maybe Italy and Japan as well. We will see how this proceeds.

--

Rick C.

+--- Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
+--- Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

Are you even looking at the news? Italy now has the largest number of
cases outside Asia. The Lombardy (milan) region looks like China,
streets empty, restaurants empty, Veneto region is also hard hit.
Iran suddenly has cases. The deputy health minister was at the head
of a news conference yesterday, trying to minimize the situation.
People noticed he was sweating profusely, mopping his face. Today they announced hehas it. Nice job in how to contain it, go around in public
with obvious symptoms. The rate of cases outside China is growing
exponentially.
And with many of these cases now, health investigators have no idea
how it got transmitted into the new cases. In the past, they usually
could quickly identify the likely source. When it's spreading and
you don't know how, it's a prescription for a pandemic.

He is only interested in forwarding CCP propaganda. Without such faithful supporters, propaganda would not work. CCP is very good at manufacturing data and suppressing information. The numbers look too good to be truth. Look at what they do, not what they say. China remains shutdown. 400,000 (15K to 20k more every day) containers of stuffs are not being made. The world is living on the first half of the supply pipe. There is nothing at the second half. Problems/shortages will hit the world soon. Meanwhile, the ruling CCP party is too afraid to even have a meeting in the capital.

Of course China is shut down.

OH my, that's alarmist!



That is how they are containing the virus.

Even if you believe the numbers, it's still steadily spreading.

Not "steadily spreading", spreading at an ever decreasing rate. Even the new deaths are dropping on a daily basis.

It's spreading at an exponential rate outside China, while China's rate
has declined. The result is it's been about flat ~700 new cases per
day over the last week. But cases outside China are now half that and
growing. You don't see health authorities anywhere saying what you
are saying, that the rate of spread is decreasing, do you?

This is not a disease that will go way by getting it heading in the right direction and then giving up.

Why are you giving up then?

I didn't post that. I didn't see anyone saying to give up either.
But even here the CDC is now saying that Americans
should prepare for the spread of the virus. Rather odd, if it's
dwindling, going down, for them to be issuing that warning now, isn't it?
Maybe Trump will be right and it will go away with spring, we'll see.

Can you explain why China continuing to lock down cities is not reducing the spread of the disease? I mean a real explanation. Oh, wait, you won't give one of those. You aren't capable.


That's alarmist!

What's alarmist?

You reporting that China has locked down cities. When I said the
streets of Milan are empty, it looks like China, you called that alarmist.

 

On Wednesday, February 26, 2020 at 9:46:02 AM UTC-8, Rick C wrote:

On Tuesday, February 25, 2020 at 9:42:42 PM UTC-5, Bill Sloman wrote:
On Wednesday, February 26, 2020 at 12:15:43 PM UTC+11, edward...@gmail.com wrote:
On Tuesday, February 25, 2020 at 3:33:00 PM UTC-8, Rick C wrote:
On Tuesday, February 25, 2020 at 4:03:23 PM UTC-5, edward...@gmail.com wrote:
On Tuesday, February 25, 2020 at 12:06:49 PM UTC-8, Whoey Louie wrote:
On Tuesday, February 25, 2020 at 10:09:39 AM UTC-5, Rick C wrote:
On Thursday, February 20, 2020 at 11:24:33 AM UTC-5, Rick C wrote:
On Tuesday, February 18, 2020 at 9:36:21 PM UTC-5, Rick C wrote:
On Sunday, February 16, 2020 at 9:24:03 AM UTC-5, Rick C wrote:

snip

Can you explain why China continuing to lock down cities is not reducing the spread of the disease?

Today's new cases for China totalled 406. A week or so ago that was around 1500. They haven't eliminated new infections, but they have certainly slowed down the rate at which the disease is spreading.

I mean a real explanation. Oh, wait, you won't give one of those. You aren't capable.

Nobody is capable of telling Edward anything that he has decided that he doesn't want to understand. The problem is with Edward rather than the explanations.

They aren't capable of going to the hospital and becoming the statistic.

They get dragged out of their apartments and taken to hospital as soon as anybody notices that they look sick. The police scan everybody they run into for fever symptoms. Going to hospital isn't always a voluntary choice.

No, not taken to the hospital. Taken to a quarantine center where they receive no care. The hospitals were over loaded some time ago. It's not clear that they even use these centers as a triage, selecting the critical patients and sending them to the hospitals.

The Chinese efforts at quarantine appear to be rather draconian and remind me of a British TV show I watched once where no one died. They could get sick and comatose, but never actually died. At some point they start burning bodies in mass crematoriums.

You understand what's going on in China, then why are you taking their propaganda number as fact?