OT: more from the resident alarmist

[Rick C]

On Tuesday, February 18, 2020 at 10:17:39 PM UTC-5, edward...@gmail.com wrote:

On Tuesday, February 18, 2020 at 6:58:46 PM UTC-8, Bill Sloman wrote:
On Wednesday, February 19, 2020 at 1:03:45 PM UTC+11, Rick C wrote:
On Sunday, February 16, 2020 at 11:20:28 AM UTC-5, edward...@gmail.com wrote:

In a similar manner, it appears the death rate is also leveling off, but the numbers are not as clear. Another day or two may provide more clear evidence.

WuHan has 7 to 8 funeral homes, cremating 150 to 200 each. Direct death may be low. Indirect death (starvations, complications, suicides and others) due to the virus are very high.

And you know this how???

He gets anecdotal evidence by e-mail from other alarmists.

Yes, that too. Western medias are slow, but eventually confirm most data.. For example, shipping issues:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/chinas-shipping-nears-a-standstill-amid-coronavirus-disruption-11581699854

I know an ultra-conservative like this. She will spout a sound bite thinking she is discussing a topic. When asked a question about it she spouts another, unrelated sound bite. If pressed hard enough she will answer the question. Ask more questions and eventually she will concede that one point, but quickly launches onto another sound bite. Lather, rinse, repeat. She never figures out that her sound bites don't actually mean anything.

Edward is not capable of understanding what he is being asked. He can only think in terms of his fantasy of information from China. That there are stray facts in the fantasy reinforces all of it.

Oh well...

--

Rick C.

--++ Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
--++ Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

 

[Bill Sloman]

On Wednesday, February 19, 2020 at 2:17:39 PM UTC+11, edward...@gmail.com wrote:

On Tuesday, February 18, 2020 at 6:58:46 PM UTC-8, Bill Sloman wrote:
On Wednesday, February 19, 2020 at 1:03:45 PM UTC+11, Rick C wrote:
On Sunday, February 16, 2020 at 11:20:28 AM UTC-5, edward...@gmail.com wrote:

In a similar manner, it appears the death rate is also leveling off, but the numbers are not as clear. Another day or two may provide more clear evidence.

WuHan has 7 to 8 funeral homes, cremating 150 to 200 each. Direct death may be low. Indirect death (starvations, complications, suicides and others) due to the virus are very high.

And you know this how???

He gets anecdotal evidence by e-mail from other alarmists.

Yes, that too. Western medias are slow, but eventually confirm most data.. For example, shipping issues:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/chinas-shipping-nears-a-standstill-amid-coronavirus-disruption-11581699854

The kind of disruption that stops the coronavirus spreading is to be preferred to the kind of disruption you'd get if you allowed it to spread unrestricted.

People not working for a couple of weeks is a whole lot less of a problem than people dying in significant numbers. At the moment 21% of the people infected (as opposed to dead or recovered) are seriously or critically ill and at best they are going to take a while to get back to work. Some of them are going to die - perhaps half of them or more.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/

does suggest that it is much too early to make a reliable estimate. My clearly unreliable estimate is 14% of those infected, which is two thirds of those who get seriously ill.

Taking a short term hit on current exports is a better choice than taking long term hit on future exports.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

 

[Bill Sloman]

On Wednesday, February 19, 2020 at 3:19:02 PM UTC+11, edward...@gmail.com wrote:

On Tuesday, February 18, 2020 at 8:12:07 PM UTC-8, Rick C wrote:
On Tuesday, February 18, 2020 at 10:17:39 PM UTC-5, edward...@gmail.com wrote:
On Tuesday, February 18, 2020 at 6:58:46 PM UTC-8, Bill Sloman wrote:
On Wednesday, February 19, 2020 at 1:03:45 PM UTC+11, Rick C wrote:
On Sunday, February 16, 2020 at 11:20:28 AM UTC-5, edward...@gmail.com wrote:

In a similar manner, it appears the death rate is also leveling off, but the numbers are not as clear. Another day or two may provide more clear evidence.

WuHan has 7 to 8 funeral homes, cremating 150 to 200 each. Direct death may be low. Indirect death (starvations, complications, suicides and others) due to the virus are very high.

And you know this how???

He gets anecdotal evidence by e-mail from other alarmists.

Yes, that too. Western medias are slow, but eventually confirm most data. For example, shipping issues:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/chinas-shipping-nears-a-standstill-amid-coronavirus-disruption-11581699854

I know an ultra-conservative like this. She will spout a sound bite thinking she is discussing a topic. When asked a question about it she spouts another, unrelated sound bite. If pressed hard enough she will answer the question. Ask more questions and eventually she will concede that one point, but quickly launches onto another sound bite. Lather, rinse, repeat. She never figures out that her sound bites don't actually mean anything.

Edward is not capable of understanding what he is being asked. He can only think in terms of his fantasy of information from China. That there are stray facts in the fantasy reinforces all of it.

Oh well...

You are not capable of doing your research. You only know how to insult.

This is unfair to Rick C. He can do some research, but doesn't like it when your more thorough research disagrees with his conclusions.

In this particular case his insult looks to have been close enough to reality to have drawn blood.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

 

[Tom Gardner]

On 19/02/20 04:12, Rick C wrote:

I know an ultra-conservative like this. She will spout a sound bite thinking
she is discussing a topic. When asked a question about it she spouts
another, unrelated sound bite. If pressed hard enough she will answer the
question. Ask more questions and eventually she will concede that one point,
but quickly launches onto another sound bite. Lather, rinse, repeat. She
never figures out that her sound bites don't actually mean anything.

Yes, we've all seen that.

Over here it is Brexiteers standard mode of non-engagement.

 

Tom Gardner <spamjunk@blueyonder.co.uk> wrote in
news:2G63G.1171513$GFe.567204@fx12.am4:

On 19/02/20 04:12, Rick C wrote:
I know an ultra-conservative like this. She will spout a sound
bite thinking she is discussing a topic. When asked a question
about it she spouts another, unrelated sound bite. If pressed
hard enough she will answer the question. Ask more questions and
eventually she will concede that one point, but quickly launches
onto another sound bite. Lather, rinse, repeat. She never
figures out that her sound bites don't actually mean anything.

Yes, we've all seen that.

Over here it is Brexiteers standard mode of non-engagement.

You keep writing 'she'. The name is Trump. Replace 'she' with
'Trump" in every instance above. Fits perfectly.

Except that the buffoon is far from being any kind of conservative.

More like criminal and confidant to criminals.

 

[Rick C]

On Tuesday, February 18, 2020 at 11:19:02 PM UTC-5, edward...@gmail.com wrote:

You are not capable of doing your research. You only know how to insult.

Not insults, facts. You pull info from chat rooms and treat it like it is fact. You provide nothing substantive and try to claim facts that are not in evidence. Why not live in reality???

--

Rick C.

-+-- Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
-+-- Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

 

[Rick C]

On Tuesday, February 18, 2020 at 9:36:21 PM UTC-5, Rick C wrote:

On Sunday, February 16, 2020 at 9:24:03 AM UTC-5, Rick C wrote:
Another day of data makes the pattern more clear...

Feb 04 24553
Feb 05 28276 3723
Feb 06 31439 3163
Feb 07 34876 3437
Feb 08 37552 2676
Feb 09 40553 3001
Feb 10 43099 2546
Feb 11 45170 2071
Feb 12 59283 14113
Feb 13 64437 5154
Feb 14 67100 2663
Feb 15 69197 2097

This was the second smallest number of new infections other than the day before the criteria change. Of course this does not indicate the reason for the change. It could be the lack of facilities to process all the sick in the center of the contagion. Or it could be that the measures to prevent the spread of infection are starting to work.

In a similar manner, it appears the death rate is also leveling off, but the numbers are not as clear. Another day or two may provide more clear evidence.

Feb 04 492
Feb 05 565 73
Feb 06 638 73
Feb 07 724 86
Feb 08 813 89
Feb 09 910 97
Feb 10 1018 108
Feb 11 1115 97
Feb 12 1261 146
Feb 13 1383 122
Feb 14 1526 143
Feb 15 1669 143

Here is the more recent data...

Infections Deaths
Total New Total New
Feb 14 67100 2663 Feb 14 1526 143
Feb 15 69197 2097 Feb 15 1669 143
Feb 16 71329 2132 Feb 16 1775 106
Feb 17 73332 2003 Feb 17 1873 98
Feb 18 75198 1866 Feb 18 2009 136

The new infection rate seems to be dropping rather than increasing. The number of deaths had been dropping, but spiked on the last day.

All in all, this seems to show the measures taken to reduce the tide are starting to work.

The reported numbers from yesterday show a much lower rate of new cases, 502 vs. 1866 the previous day. The number of new deaths is stabilizing as well with yesterday's number at 117. It should start to drop significantly in a week or two as this number will lag the infections.

I am a bit concerned that it seems China has reverted to the previous method of counting infected patients. This may be the cause of the very low newly infected number from yesterday. It is less likely to impact the death count as these patients would have almost certainly have been tested and counted under both systems.

--

Rick C.

-+-+ Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
-+-+ Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

 

[Ingvald44]

LaOn Thu, 20 Feb 2020 08:24:28 -0800 (PST), Rick C
<gnuarm.deletethisbit@gmail.com> wrote:

On Tuesday, February 18, 2020 at 9:36:21 PM UTC-5, Rick C wrote:
On Sunday, February 16, 2020 at 9:24:03 AM UTC-5, Rick C wrote:
Another day of data makes the pattern more clear...

Feb 04 24553
Feb 05 28276 3723
Feb 06 31439 3163
Feb 07 34876 3437
Feb 08 37552 2676
Feb 09 40553 3001
Feb 10 43099 2546
Feb 11 45170 2071
Feb 12 59283 14113
Feb 13 64437 5154
Feb 14 67100 2663
Feb 15 69197 2097

This was the second smallest number of new infections other than the day before the criteria change. Of course this does not indicate the reason for the change. It could be the lack of facilities to process all the sick in the center of the contagion. Or it could be that the measures to prevent the spread of infection are starting to work.

In a similar manner, it appears the death rate is also leveling off, but the numbers are not as clear. Another day or two may provide more clear evidence.

Feb 04 492
Feb 05 565 73
Feb 06 638 73
Feb 07 724 86
Feb 08 813 89
Feb 09 910 97
Feb 10 1018 108
Feb 11 1115 97
Feb 12 1261 146
Feb 13 1383 122
Feb 14 1526 143
Feb 15 1669 143

Here is the more recent data...

Infections Deaths
Total New Total New
Feb 14 67100 2663 Feb 14 1526 143
Feb 15 69197 2097 Feb 15 1669 143
Feb 16 71329 2132 Feb 16 1775 106
Feb 17 73332 2003 Feb 17 1873 98
Feb 18 75198 1866 Feb 18 2009 136

The new infection rate seems to be dropping rather than increasing. The number of deaths had been dropping, but spiked on the last day.

All in all, this seems to show the measures taken to reduce the tide are starting to work.

The reported numbers from yesterday show a much lower rate of new cases, 502 vs. 1866 the previous day. The number of new deaths is stabilizing as well with yesterday's number at 117. It should start to drop significantly in a week or two as this number will lag the infections.

I am a bit concerned that it seems China has reverted to the previous method of counting infected patients. This may be the cause of the very low newly infected number from yesterday. It is less likely to impact the death count as these patients would have almost certainly have been tested and counted under both systems.

Latest news is that the virus is present in fecal matter. Wonder how
long it survives in that medium?

 

[Rick C]

On Thursday, February 20, 2020 at 1:13:04 PM UTC-5, Ingvald44 wrote:

LaOn Thu, 20 Feb 2020 08:24:28 -0800 (PST), Rick C
gnuarm.deletethisbit@gmail.com> wrote:

On Tuesday, February 18, 2020 at 9:36:21 PM UTC-5, Rick C wrote:
On Sunday, February 16, 2020 at 9:24:03 AM UTC-5, Rick C wrote:
Another day of data makes the pattern more clear...

Feb 04 24553
Feb 05 28276 3723
Feb 06 31439 3163
Feb 07 34876 3437
Feb 08 37552 2676
Feb 09 40553 3001
Feb 10 43099 2546
Feb 11 45170 2071
Feb 12 59283 14113
Feb 13 64437 5154
Feb 14 67100 2663
Feb 15 69197 2097

This was the second smallest number of new infections other than the day before the criteria change. Of course this does not indicate the reason for the change. It could be the lack of facilities to process all the sick in the center of the contagion. Or it could be that the measures to prevent the spread of infection are starting to work.

In a similar manner, it appears the death rate is also leveling off, but the numbers are not as clear. Another day or two may provide more clear evidence.

Feb 04 492
Feb 05 565 73
Feb 06 638 73
Feb 07 724 86
Feb 08 813 89
Feb 09 910 97
Feb 10 1018 108
Feb 11 1115 97
Feb 12 1261 146
Feb 13 1383 122
Feb 14 1526 143
Feb 15 1669 143

Here is the more recent data...

Infections Deaths
Total New Total New
Feb 14 67100 2663 Feb 14 1526 143
Feb 15 69197 2097 Feb 15 1669 143
Feb 16 71329 2132 Feb 16 1775 106
Feb 17 73332 2003 Feb 17 1873 98
Feb 18 75198 1866 Feb 18 2009 136

The new infection rate seems to be dropping rather than increasing. The number of deaths had been dropping, but spiked on the last day.

All in all, this seems to show the measures taken to reduce the tide are starting to work.

The reported numbers from yesterday show a much lower rate of new cases, 502 vs. 1866 the previous day. The number of new deaths is stabilizing as well with yesterday's number at 117. It should start to drop significantly in a week or two as this number will lag the infections.

I am a bit concerned that it seems China has reverted to the previous method of counting infected patients. This may be the cause of the very low newly infected number from yesterday. It is less likely to impact the death count as these patients would have almost certainly have been tested and counted under both systems.


Latest news is that the virus is present in fecal matter. Wonder how
long it survives in that medium?

There is likely viral particles in all human excretions and anything touched by infected humans. But how often will another be infected by fecal matter. In any healthcare setting human waste is treated as contaminated. At home people already treat feces as if they were radioactive.

--

Rick C.

-++- Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
-++- Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

 

[Ingvald44]

On Thu, 20 Feb 2020 10:34:52 -0800 (PST), Rick C
<gnuarm.deletethisbit@gmail.com> wrote:

On Thursday, February 20, 2020 at 1:13:04 PM UTC-5, Ingvald44 wrote:
LaOn Thu, 20 Feb 2020 08:24:28 -0800 (PST), Rick C
gnuarm.deletethisbit@gmail.com> wrote:

On Tuesday, February 18, 2020 at 9:36:21 PM UTC-5, Rick C wrote:
On Sunday, February 16, 2020 at 9:24:03 AM UTC-5, Rick C wrote:
Another day of data makes the pattern more clear...

Feb 04 24553
Feb 05 28276 3723
Feb 06 31439 3163
Feb 07 34876 3437
Feb 08 37552 2676
Feb 09 40553 3001
Feb 10 43099 2546
Feb 11 45170 2071
Feb 12 59283 14113
Feb 13 64437 5154
Feb 14 67100 2663
Feb 15 69197 2097

This was the second smallest number of new infections other than the day before the criteria change. Of course this does not indicate the reason for the change. It could be the lack of facilities to process all the sick in the center of the contagion. Or it could be that the measures to prevent the spread of infection are starting to work.

In a similar manner, it appears the death rate is also leveling off, but the numbers are not as clear. Another day or two may provide more clear evidence.

Feb 04 492
Feb 05 565 73
Feb 06 638 73
Feb 07 724 86
Feb 08 813 89
Feb 09 910 97
Feb 10 1018 108
Feb 11 1115 97
Feb 12 1261 146
Feb 13 1383 122
Feb 14 1526 143
Feb 15 1669 143

Here is the more recent data...

Infections Deaths
Total New Total New
Feb 14 67100 2663 Feb 14 1526 143
Feb 15 69197 2097 Feb 15 1669 143
Feb 16 71329 2132 Feb 16 1775 106
Feb 17 73332 2003 Feb 17 1873 98
Feb 18 75198 1866 Feb 18 2009 136

The new infection rate seems to be dropping rather than increasing. The number of deaths had been dropping, but spiked on the last day.

All in all, this seems to show the measures taken to reduce the tide are starting to work.

The reported numbers from yesterday show a much lower rate of new cases, 502 vs. 1866 the previous day. The number of new deaths is stabilizing as well with yesterday's number at 117. It should start to drop significantly in a week or two as this number will lag the infections.

I am a bit concerned that it seems China has reverted to the previous method of counting infected patients. This may be the cause of the very low newly infected number from yesterday. It is less likely to impact the death count as these patients would have almost certainly have been tested and counted under both systems.


Latest news is that the virus is present in fecal matter. Wonder how
long it survives in that medium?

There is likely viral particles in all human excretions and anything touched by infected humans. But how often will another be infected by fecal matter. In any healthcare setting human waste is treated as contaminated. At home people already treat feces as if they were radioactive.

I am wondereing though if we start getting cases in the homeless areas
of SF and San Fran where sanitation is back to the middle ages...

 

[Rick C]

On Thursday, February 20, 2020 at 3:15:40 PM UTC-5, Ingvald44 wrote:

On Thu, 20 Feb 2020 10:34:52 -0800 (PST), Rick C
gnuarm.deletethisbit@gmail.com> wrote:

On Thursday, February 20, 2020 at 1:13:04 PM UTC-5, Ingvald44 wrote:


Latest news is that the virus is present in fecal matter. Wonder how
long it survives in that medium?

There is likely viral particles in all human excretions and anything touched by infected humans. But how often will another be infected by fecal matter. In any healthcare setting human waste is treated as contaminated. At home people already treat feces as if they were radioactive.

I am wondereing though if we start getting cases in the homeless areas
of SF and San Fran where sanitation is back to the middle ages...

Even then, there has to be a source. People may come into contact with their on feces, but how would they come into contact with others'?

I expect the primary means of dissemination will always be airborne and direct contact with indirect contact being a secondary means (doorknobs, table surfaces, etc). I don't think it has to be spread through feces to be caught when using a public toilet. Just contact with the same seat, sink and doorknob is enough and much more likely I expect.

--

Rick C.

-+++ Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
-+++ Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

 

[Bill Sloman]

On Friday, February 21, 2020 at 7:15:40 AM UTC+11, Ingvald44 wrote:

On Thu, 20 Feb 2020 10:34:52 -0800 (PST), Rick C
gnuarm.deletethisbit@gmail.com> wrote:

On Thursday, February 20, 2020 at 1:13:04 PM UTC-5, Ingvald44 wrote:
LaOn Thu, 20 Feb 2020 08:24:28 -0800 (PST), Rick C
gnuarm.deletethisbit@gmail.com> wrote:

On Tuesday, February 18, 2020 at 9:36:21 PM UTC-5, Rick C wrote:
On Sunday, February 16, 2020 at 9:24:03 AM UTC-5, Rick C wrote:
Another day of data makes the pattern more clear...

Feb 04 24553
Feb 05 28276 3723
Feb 06 31439 3163
Feb 07 34876 3437
Feb 08 37552 2676
Feb 09 40553 3001
Feb 10 43099 2546
Feb 11 45170 2071
Feb 12 59283 14113
Feb 13 64437 5154
Feb 14 67100 2663
Feb 15 69197 2097

This was the second smallest number of new infections other than the day before the criteria change. Of course this does not indicate the reason for the change. It could be the lack of facilities to process all the sick in the center of the contagion. Or it could be that the measures to prevent the spread of infection are starting to work.

In a similar manner, it appears the death rate is also leveling off, but the numbers are not as clear. Another day or two may provide more clear evidence.

Feb 04 492
Feb 05 565 73
Feb 06 638 73
Feb 07 724 86
Feb 08 813 89
Feb 09 910 97
Feb 10 1018 108
Feb 11 1115 97
Feb 12 1261 146
Feb 13 1383 122
Feb 14 1526 143
Feb 15 1669 143

Here is the more recent data...

Infections Deaths
Total New Total New
Feb 14 67100 2663 Feb 14 1526 143
Feb 15 69197 2097 Feb 15 1669 143
Feb 16 71329 2132 Feb 16 1775 106
Feb 17 73332 2003 Feb 17 1873 98
Feb 18 75198 1866 Feb 18 2009 136

The new infection rate seems to be dropping rather than increasing. The number of deaths had been dropping, but spiked on the last day.

All in all, this seems to show the measures taken to reduce the tide are starting to work.

The reported numbers from yesterday show a much lower rate of new cases, 502 vs. 1866 the previous day. The number of new deaths is stabilizing as well with yesterday's number at 117. It should start to drop significantly in a week or two as this number will lag the infections.

I am a bit concerned that it seems China has reverted to the previous method of counting infected patients. This may be the cause of the very low newly infected number from yesterday. It is less likely to impact the death count as these patients would have almost certainly have been tested and counted under both systems.


Latest news is that the virus is present in fecal matter. Wonder how
long it survives in that medium?

There is likely viral particles in all human excretions and anything touched by infected humans. But how often will another be infected by fecal matter. In any healthcare setting human waste is treated as contaminated. At home people already treat feces as if they were radioactive.

I am wondering though if we start getting cases in the homeless areas
of SF and San Fran where sanitation is back to the middle ages...

One saving grace is that the homeless don't go off on tourist jaunts to China.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

 

[Rick C]

On Thursday, February 20, 2020 at 11:24:33 AM UTC-5, Rick C wrote:

On Tuesday, February 18, 2020 at 9:36:21 PM UTC-5, Rick C wrote:
On Sunday, February 16, 2020 at 9:24:03 AM UTC-5, Rick C wrote:
Another day of data makes the pattern more clear...

Feb 04 24553
Feb 05 28276 3723
Feb 06 31439 3163
Feb 07 34876 3437
Feb 08 37552 2676
Feb 09 40553 3001
Feb 10 43099 2546
Feb 11 45170 2071
Feb 12 59283 14113
Feb 13 64437 5154
Feb 14 67100 2663
Feb 15 69197 2097

This was the second smallest number of new infections other than the day before the criteria change. Of course this does not indicate the reason for the change. It could be the lack of facilities to process all the sick in the center of the contagion. Or it could be that the measures to prevent the spread of infection are starting to work.

In a similar manner, it appears the death rate is also leveling off, but the numbers are not as clear. Another day or two may provide more clear evidence.

Feb 04 492
Feb 05 565 73
Feb 06 638 73
Feb 07 724 86
Feb 08 813 89
Feb 09 910 97
Feb 10 1018 108
Feb 11 1115 97
Feb 12 1261 146
Feb 13 1383 122
Feb 14 1526 143
Feb 15 1669 143

Here is the more recent data...

Infections Deaths
Total New Total New
Feb 14 67100 2663 Feb 14 1526 143
Feb 15 69197 2097 Feb 15 1669 143
Feb 16 71329 2132 Feb 16 1775 106
Feb 17 73332 2003 Feb 17 1873 98
Feb 18 75198 1866 Feb 18 2009 136

The new infection rate seems to be dropping rather than increasing. The number of deaths had been dropping, but spiked on the last day.

All in all, this seems to show the measures taken to reduce the tide are starting to work.

The reported numbers from yesterday show a much lower rate of new cases, 502 vs. 1866 the previous day. The number of new deaths is stabilizing as well with yesterday's number at 117. It should start to drop significantly in a week or two as this number will lag the infections.

I am a bit concerned that it seems China has reverted to the previous method of counting infected patients. This may be the cause of the very low newly infected number from yesterday. It is less likely to impact the death count as these patients would have almost certainly have been tested and counted under both systems.

It appears the number of active cases has be dropping for nearly a week now.. That's a clear indication that the Chinese have things under control and we are likely seeing the beginning of the end of this disease, at least in China.

The South Koreans seem to have some issues trying to contain the contagion and maybe Italy and Japan as well. We will see how this proceeds.

--

Rick C.

+--- Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
+--- Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

 

[Whoey Louie]

On Tuesday, February 25, 2020 at 10:09:39 AM UTC-5, Rick C wrote:

On Thursday, February 20, 2020 at 11:24:33 AM UTC-5, Rick C wrote:
On Tuesday, February 18, 2020 at 9:36:21 PM UTC-5, Rick C wrote:
On Sunday, February 16, 2020 at 9:24:03 AM UTC-5, Rick C wrote:
Another day of data makes the pattern more clear...

Feb 04 24553
Feb 05 28276 3723
Feb 06 31439 3163
Feb 07 34876 3437
Feb 08 37552 2676
Feb 09 40553 3001
Feb 10 43099 2546
Feb 11 45170 2071
Feb 12 59283 14113
Feb 13 64437 5154
Feb 14 67100 2663
Feb 15 69197 2097

This was the second smallest number of new infections other than the day before the criteria change. Of course this does not indicate the reason for the change. It could be the lack of facilities to process all the sick in the center of the contagion. Or it could be that the measures to prevent the spread of infection are starting to work.

In a similar manner, it appears the death rate is also leveling off, but the numbers are not as clear. Another day or two may provide more clear evidence.

Feb 04 492
Feb 05 565 73
Feb 06 638 73
Feb 07 724 86
Feb 08 813 89
Feb 09 910 97
Feb 10 1018 108
Feb 11 1115 97
Feb 12 1261 146
Feb 13 1383 122
Feb 14 1526 143
Feb 15 1669 143

Here is the more recent data...

Infections Deaths
Total New Total New
Feb 14 67100 2663 Feb 14 1526 143
Feb 15 69197 2097 Feb 15 1669 143
Feb 16 71329 2132 Feb 16 1775 106
Feb 17 73332 2003 Feb 17 1873 98
Feb 18 75198 1866 Feb 18 2009 136

The new infection rate seems to be dropping rather than increasing. The number of deaths had been dropping, but spiked on the last day.

All in all, this seems to show the measures taken to reduce the tide are starting to work.

The reported numbers from yesterday show a much lower rate of new cases, 502 vs. 1866 the previous day. The number of new deaths is stabilizing as well with yesterday's number at 117. It should start to drop significantly in a week or two as this number will lag the infections.

I am a bit concerned that it seems China has reverted to the previous method of counting infected patients. This may be the cause of the very low newly infected number from yesterday. It is less likely to impact the death count as these patients would have almost certainly have been tested and counted under both systems.

It appears the number of active cases has be dropping for nearly a week now. That's a clear indication that the Chinese have things under control and we are likely seeing the beginning of the end of this disease, at least in China.

The South Koreans seem to have some issues trying to contain the contagion and maybe Italy and Japan as well. We will see how this proceeds.

--

Rick C.

+--- Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
+--- Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

Are you even looking at the news? Italy now has the largest number of
cases outside Asia. The Lombardy (milan) region looks like China,
streets empty, restaurants empty, Veneto region is also hard hit.
Iran suddenly has cases. The deputy health minister was at the head
of a news conference yesterday, trying to minimize the situation.
People noticed he was sweating profusely, mopping his face. Today they announced hehas it. Nice job in how to contain it, go around in public
with obvious symptoms. The rate of cases outside China is growing
exponentially.
And with many of these cases now, health investigators have no idea
how it got transmitted into the new cases. In the past, they usually
could quickly identify the likely source. When it's spreading and
you don't know how, it's a prescription for a pandemic.

 

On Tuesday, February 25, 2020 at 12:06:49 PM UTC-8, Whoey Louie wrote:

On Tuesday, February 25, 2020 at 10:09:39 AM UTC-5, Rick C wrote:
On Thursday, February 20, 2020 at 11:24:33 AM UTC-5, Rick C wrote:
On Tuesday, February 18, 2020 at 9:36:21 PM UTC-5, Rick C wrote:
On Sunday, February 16, 2020 at 9:24:03 AM UTC-5, Rick C wrote:
Another day of data makes the pattern more clear...

Feb 04 24553
Feb 05 28276 3723
Feb 06 31439 3163
Feb 07 34876 3437
Feb 08 37552 2676
Feb 09 40553 3001
Feb 10 43099 2546
Feb 11 45170 2071
Feb 12 59283 14113
Feb 13 64437 5154
Feb 14 67100 2663
Feb 15 69197 2097

This was the second smallest number of new infections other than the day before the criteria change. Of course this does not indicate the reason for the change. It could be the lack of facilities to process all the sick in the center of the contagion. Or it could be that the measures to prevent the spread of infection are starting to work.

In a similar manner, it appears the death rate is also leveling off, but the numbers are not as clear. Another day or two may provide more clear evidence.

Feb 04 492
Feb 05 565 73
Feb 06 638 73
Feb 07 724 86
Feb 08 813 89
Feb 09 910 97
Feb 10 1018 108
Feb 11 1115 97
Feb 12 1261 146
Feb 13 1383 122
Feb 14 1526 143
Feb 15 1669 143

Here is the more recent data...

Infections Deaths
Total New Total New
Feb 14 67100 2663 Feb 14 1526 143
Feb 15 69197 2097 Feb 15 1669 143
Feb 16 71329 2132 Feb 16 1775 106
Feb 17 73332 2003 Feb 17 1873 98
Feb 18 75198 1866 Feb 18 2009 136

The new infection rate seems to be dropping rather than increasing. The number of deaths had been dropping, but spiked on the last day.

All in all, this seems to show the measures taken to reduce the tide are starting to work.

The reported numbers from yesterday show a much lower rate of new cases, 502 vs. 1866 the previous day. The number of new deaths is stabilizing as well with yesterday's number at 117. It should start to drop significantly in a week or two as this number will lag the infections.

I am a bit concerned that it seems China has reverted to the previous method of counting infected patients. This may be the cause of the very low newly infected number from yesterday. It is less likely to impact the death count as these patients would have almost certainly have been tested and counted under both systems.

It appears the number of active cases has be dropping for nearly a week now. That's a clear indication that the Chinese have things under control and we are likely seeing the beginning of the end of this disease, at least in China.

The South Koreans seem to have some issues trying to contain the contagion and maybe Italy and Japan as well. We will see how this proceeds.

--

Rick C.

+--- Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
+--- Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

Are you even looking at the news? Italy now has the largest number of
cases outside Asia. The Lombardy (milan) region looks like China,
streets empty, restaurants empty, Veneto region is also hard hit.
Iran suddenly has cases. The deputy health minister was at the head
of a news conference yesterday, trying to minimize the situation.
People noticed he was sweating profusely, mopping his face. Today they announced hehas it. Nice job in how to contain it, go around in public
with obvious symptoms. The rate of cases outside China is growing
exponentially.
And with many of these cases now, health investigators have no idea
how it got transmitted into the new cases. In the past, they usually
could quickly identify the likely source. When it's spreading and
you don't know how, it's a prescription for a pandemic.

He is only interested in forwarding CCP propaganda. Without such faithful supporters, propaganda would not work. CCP is very good at manufacturing data and suppressing information. The numbers look too good to be truth. Look at what they do, not what they say. China remains shutdown. 400,000 (15K to 20k more every day) containers of stuffs are not being made. The world is living on the first half of the supply pipe. There is nothing at the second half. Problems/shortages will hit the world soon. Meanwhile, the ruling CCP party is too afraid to even have a meeting in the capital.

 

[Whoey Louie]

On Tuesday, February 25, 2020 at 4:03:23 PM UTC-5, edward...@gmail.com wrote:

On Tuesday, February 25, 2020 at 12:06:49 PM UTC-8, Whoey Louie wrote:
On Tuesday, February 25, 2020 at 10:09:39 AM UTC-5, Rick C wrote:
On Thursday, February 20, 2020 at 11:24:33 AM UTC-5, Rick C wrote:
On Tuesday, February 18, 2020 at 9:36:21 PM UTC-5, Rick C wrote:
On Sunday, February 16, 2020 at 9:24:03 AM UTC-5, Rick C wrote:
Another day of data makes the pattern more clear...

Feb 04 24553
Feb 05 28276 3723
Feb 06 31439 3163
Feb 07 34876 3437
Feb 08 37552 2676
Feb 09 40553 3001
Feb 10 43099 2546
Feb 11 45170 2071
Feb 12 59283 14113
Feb 13 64437 5154
Feb 14 67100 2663
Feb 15 69197 2097

This was the second smallest number of new infections other than the day before the criteria change. Of course this does not indicate the reason for the change. It could be the lack of facilities to process all the sick in the center of the contagion. Or it could be that the measures to prevent the spread of infection are starting to work.

In a similar manner, it appears the death rate is also leveling off, but the numbers are not as clear. Another day or two may provide more clear evidence.

Feb 04 492
Feb 05 565 73
Feb 06 638 73
Feb 07 724 86
Feb 08 813 89
Feb 09 910 97
Feb 10 1018 108
Feb 11 1115 97
Feb 12 1261 146
Feb 13 1383 122
Feb 14 1526 143
Feb 15 1669 143

Here is the more recent data...

Infections Deaths
Total New Total New
Feb 14 67100 2663 Feb 14 1526 143
Feb 15 69197 2097 Feb 15 1669 143
Feb 16 71329 2132 Feb 16 1775 106
Feb 17 73332 2003 Feb 17 1873 98
Feb 18 75198 1866 Feb 18 2009 136

The new infection rate seems to be dropping rather than increasing. The number of deaths had been dropping, but spiked on the last day.

All in all, this seems to show the measures taken to reduce the tide are starting to work.

The reported numbers from yesterday show a much lower rate of new cases, 502 vs. 1866 the previous day. The number of new deaths is stabilizing as well with yesterday's number at 117. It should start to drop significantly in a week or two as this number will lag the infections.

I am a bit concerned that it seems China has reverted to the previous method of counting infected patients. This may be the cause of the very low newly infected number from yesterday. It is less likely to impact the death count as these patients would have almost certainly have been tested and counted under both systems.

It appears the number of active cases has be dropping for nearly a week now. That's a clear indication that the Chinese have things under control and we are likely seeing the beginning of the end of this disease, at least in China.

The South Koreans seem to have some issues trying to contain the contagion and maybe Italy and Japan as well. We will see how this proceeds.

--

Rick C.

+--- Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
+--- Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

Are you even looking at the news? Italy now has the largest number of
cases outside Asia. The Lombardy (milan) region looks like China,
streets empty, restaurants empty, Veneto region is also hard hit.
Iran suddenly has cases. The deputy health minister was at the head
of a news conference yesterday, trying to minimize the situation.
People noticed he was sweating profusely, mopping his face. Today they announced hehas it. Nice job in how to contain it, go around in public
with obvious symptoms. The rate of cases outside China is growing
exponentially.
And with many of these cases now, health investigators have no idea
how it got transmitted into the new cases. In the past, they usually
could quickly identify the likely source. When it's spreading and
you don't know how, it's a prescription for a pandemic.

He is only interested in forwarding CCP propaganda. Without such faithful supporters, propaganda would not work. CCP is very good at manufacturing data and suppressing information. The numbers look too good to be truth. Look at what they do, not what they say. China remains shutdown. 400,000 (15K to 20k more every day) containers of stuffs are not being made. The world is living on the first half of the supply pipe. There is nothing at the second half. Problems/shortages will hit the world soon. Meanwhile, the ruling CCP party is too afraid to even have a meeting in the capital.

The Chinese number of new cases that went down recently while cases are growing exponentially outside China make the China numbers look suspect.

 

[Rick C]

On Tuesday, February 25, 2020 at 4:03:23 PM UTC-5, edward...@gmail.com wrote:

On Tuesday, February 25, 2020 at 12:06:49 PM UTC-8, Whoey Louie wrote:
On Tuesday, February 25, 2020 at 10:09:39 AM UTC-5, Rick C wrote:
On Thursday, February 20, 2020 at 11:24:33 AM UTC-5, Rick C wrote:
On Tuesday, February 18, 2020 at 9:36:21 PM UTC-5, Rick C wrote:
On Sunday, February 16, 2020 at 9:24:03 AM UTC-5, Rick C wrote:
Another day of data makes the pattern more clear...

Feb 04 24553
Feb 05 28276 3723
Feb 06 31439 3163
Feb 07 34876 3437
Feb 08 37552 2676
Feb 09 40553 3001
Feb 10 43099 2546
Feb 11 45170 2071
Feb 12 59283 14113
Feb 13 64437 5154
Feb 14 67100 2663
Feb 15 69197 2097

This was the second smallest number of new infections other than the day before the criteria change. Of course this does not indicate the reason for the change. It could be the lack of facilities to process all the sick in the center of the contagion. Or it could be that the measures to prevent the spread of infection are starting to work.

In a similar manner, it appears the death rate is also leveling off, but the numbers are not as clear. Another day or two may provide more clear evidence.

Feb 04 492
Feb 05 565 73
Feb 06 638 73
Feb 07 724 86
Feb 08 813 89
Feb 09 910 97
Feb 10 1018 108
Feb 11 1115 97
Feb 12 1261 146
Feb 13 1383 122
Feb 14 1526 143
Feb 15 1669 143

Here is the more recent data...

Infections Deaths
Total New Total New
Feb 14 67100 2663 Feb 14 1526 143
Feb 15 69197 2097 Feb 15 1669 143
Feb 16 71329 2132 Feb 16 1775 106
Feb 17 73332 2003 Feb 17 1873 98
Feb 18 75198 1866 Feb 18 2009 136

The new infection rate seems to be dropping rather than increasing. The number of deaths had been dropping, but spiked on the last day.

All in all, this seems to show the measures taken to reduce the tide are starting to work.

The reported numbers from yesterday show a much lower rate of new cases, 502 vs. 1866 the previous day. The number of new deaths is stabilizing as well with yesterday's number at 117. It should start to drop significantly in a week or two as this number will lag the infections.

I am a bit concerned that it seems China has reverted to the previous method of counting infected patients. This may be the cause of the very low newly infected number from yesterday. It is less likely to impact the death count as these patients would have almost certainly have been tested and counted under both systems.

It appears the number of active cases has be dropping for nearly a week now. That's a clear indication that the Chinese have things under control and we are likely seeing the beginning of the end of this disease, at least in China.

The South Koreans seem to have some issues trying to contain the contagion and maybe Italy and Japan as well. We will see how this proceeds.

--

Rick C.

+--- Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
+--- Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

Are you even looking at the news? Italy now has the largest number of
cases outside Asia. The Lombardy (milan) region looks like China,
streets empty, restaurants empty, Veneto region is also hard hit.
Iran suddenly has cases. The deputy health minister was at the head
of a news conference yesterday, trying to minimize the situation.
People noticed he was sweating profusely, mopping his face. Today they announced hehas it. Nice job in how to contain it, go around in public
with obvious symptoms. The rate of cases outside China is growing
exponentially.
And with many of these cases now, health investigators have no idea
how it got transmitted into the new cases. In the past, they usually
could quickly identify the likely source. When it's spreading and
you don't know how, it's a prescription for a pandemic.

He is only interested in forwarding CCP propaganda. Without such faithful supporters, propaganda would not work. CCP is very good at manufacturing data and suppressing information. The numbers look too good to be truth. Look at what they do, not what they say. China remains shutdown. 400,000 (15K to 20k more every day) containers of stuffs are not being made. The world is living on the first half of the supply pipe. There is nothing at the second half. Problems/shortages will hit the world soon. Meanwhile, the ruling CCP party is too afraid to even have a meeting in the capital.

Of course China is shut down. That is how they are containing the virus. This is not a disease that will go way by getting it heading in the right direction and then giving up.

Can you explain why China continuing to lock down cities is not reducing the spread of the disease? I mean a real explanation. Oh, wait, you won't give one of those. You aren't capable.

--

Rick C.

-+ Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
-+ Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

 

[Bill Sloman]

On Wednesday, February 26, 2020 at 8:41:43 AM UTC+11, Whoey Louie wrote:

On Tuesday, February 25, 2020 at 4:03:23 PM UTC-5, edward...@gmail.com wrote:
On Tuesday, February 25, 2020 at 12:06:49 PM UTC-8, Whoey Louie wrote:
On Tuesday, February 25, 2020 at 10:09:39 AM UTC-5, Rick C wrote:
On Thursday, February 20, 2020 at 11:24:33 AM UTC-5, Rick C wrote:
On Tuesday, February 18, 2020 at 9:36:21 PM UTC-5, Rick C wrote:
On Sunday, February 16, 2020 at 9:24:03 AM UTC-5, Rick C wrote:
Another day of data makes the pattern more clear...

Feb 04 24553
Feb 05 28276 3723
Feb 06 31439 3163
Feb 07 34876 3437
Feb 08 37552 2676
Feb 09 40553 3001
Feb 10 43099 2546
Feb 11 45170 2071
Feb 12 59283 14113
Feb 13 64437 5154
Feb 14 67100 2663
Feb 15 69197 2097

This was the second smallest number of new infections other than the day before the criteria change. Of course this does not indicate the reason for the change. It could be the lack of facilities to process all the sick in the center of the contagion. Or it could be that the measures to prevent the spread of infection are starting to work.

In a similar manner, it appears the death rate is also leveling off, but the numbers are not as clear. Another day or two may provide more clear evidence.

Feb 04 492
Feb 05 565 73
Feb 06 638 73
Feb 07 724 86
Feb 08 813 89
Feb 09 910 97
Feb 10 1018 108
Feb 11 1115 97
Feb 12 1261 146
Feb 13 1383 122
Feb 14 1526 143
Feb 15 1669 143

Here is the more recent data...

Infections Deaths
Total New Total New
Feb 14 67100 2663 Feb 14 1526 143
Feb 15 69197 2097 Feb 15 1669 143
Feb 16 71329 2132 Feb 16 1775 106
Feb 17 73332 2003 Feb 17 1873 98
Feb 18 75198 1866 Feb 18 2009 136

The new infection rate seems to be dropping rather than increasing. The number of deaths had been dropping, but spiked on the last day.

All in all, this seems to show the measures taken to reduce the tide are starting to work.

The reported numbers from yesterday show a much lower rate of new cases, 502 vs. 1866 the previous day. The number of new deaths is stabilizing as well with yesterday's number at 117. It should start to drop significantly in a week or two as this number will lag the infections.

I am a bit concerned that it seems China has reverted to the previous method of counting infected patients. This may be the cause of the very low newly infected number from yesterday. It is less likely to impact the death count as these patients would have almost certainly have been tested and counted under both systems.

It appears the number of active cases has be dropping for nearly a week now. That's a clear indication that the Chinese have things under control and we are likely seeing the beginning of the end of this disease, at least in China.

The South Koreans seem to have some issues trying to contain the contagion and maybe Italy and Japan as well. We will see how this proceeds.

Are you even looking at the news? Italy now has the largest number of
cases outside Asia. The Lombardy (milan) region looks like China,
streets empty, restaurants empty, Veneto region is also hard hit.
Iran suddenly has cases. The deputy health minister was at the head
of a news conference yesterday, trying to minimize the situation.
People noticed he was sweating profusely, mopping his face. Today they
announced hehas it. Nice job in how to contain it, go around in public
with obvious symptoms. The rate of cases outside China is growing
exponentially.

In some places. Anywhere where they can quarantine travellers from infected areas and keep them isolated for a fortnight hasn't got exponential growth..

And with many of these cases now, health investigators have no idea
how it got transmitted into the new cases.

They've got a pretty exact idea of how it got transmitted, but they haven't yet identified the person who spread the infection. That takes contact tracing, which is labour intensive. Putting an area into lock-down saves you the contact tracing, but it messes up a lot more peoples life (and the local economy).

In the past, they usually
could quickly identify the likely source. When it's spreading and
you don't know how, it's a prescription for a pandemic.

It's one of the necessary pre-conditions for a pandemic. Lock-down has prevented a pandemic in China - though it wasn't put in palce as early as it could have been and the certainly got an epidemoc in Hubei Province.

> > He is only interested in forwarding CCP propaganda. Without such faithful supporters, propaganda would not work. CCP is very good at manufacturing data and suppressing information. The numbers look too good to be truth.. Look at what they do, not what they say. China remains shutdown.

And may need to stay there for perhaps another week.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

reports just seven new cases for China, which probably come from the medical staff looking after the 38,000 active cases.

> 400,000 (15K to 20k more every day) containers of stuffs are not being made. The world is living on the first half of the supply pipe. There is nothing at the second half. Problems/shortages will hit the world soon. Meanwhile, the ruling CCP party is too afraid to even have a meeting in the capital.

So they do have some grasp of reality. The Italian Deputy Health Minister clearly didn't, so he got infected.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

> The Chinese number of new cases that went down recently while cases are growing exponentially outside China make the China numbers look suspect.

Only to an idiot like Whoey Louie.

China put large chunks of the country in lock-down, which reduces the number of people who get infected by people who have the disease without showing symptoms.

Without lockdown, each new case infects perhaps three more people before it becomes visible. With lock down, it there is quite a good chance that anybody who develops the disease won't infect anybody else before they develop visible symptoms and get whisked into quarantine.

 

[Rick C]

On Tuesday, February 25, 2020 at 3:06:49 PM UTC-5, Whoey Louie wrote:

On Tuesday, February 25, 2020 at 10:09:39 AM UTC-5, Rick C wrote:
On Thursday, February 20, 2020 at 11:24:33 AM UTC-5, Rick C wrote:
On Tuesday, February 18, 2020 at 9:36:21 PM UTC-5, Rick C wrote:
On Sunday, February 16, 2020 at 9:24:03 AM UTC-5, Rick C wrote:
Another day of data makes the pattern more clear...

Feb 04 24553
Feb 05 28276 3723
Feb 06 31439 3163
Feb 07 34876 3437
Feb 08 37552 2676
Feb 09 40553 3001
Feb 10 43099 2546
Feb 11 45170 2071
Feb 12 59283 14113
Feb 13 64437 5154
Feb 14 67100 2663
Feb 15 69197 2097

This was the second smallest number of new infections other than the day before the criteria change. Of course this does not indicate the reason for the change. It could be the lack of facilities to process all the sick in the center of the contagion. Or it could be that the measures to prevent the spread of infection are starting to work.

In a similar manner, it appears the death rate is also leveling off, but the numbers are not as clear. Another day or two may provide more clear evidence.

Feb 04 492
Feb 05 565 73
Feb 06 638 73
Feb 07 724 86
Feb 08 813 89
Feb 09 910 97
Feb 10 1018 108
Feb 11 1115 97
Feb 12 1261 146
Feb 13 1383 122
Feb 14 1526 143
Feb 15 1669 143

Here is the more recent data...

Infections Deaths
Total New Total New
Feb 14 67100 2663 Feb 14 1526 143
Feb 15 69197 2097 Feb 15 1669 143
Feb 16 71329 2132 Feb 16 1775 106
Feb 17 73332 2003 Feb 17 1873 98
Feb 18 75198 1866 Feb 18 2009 136

The new infection rate seems to be dropping rather than increasing. The number of deaths had been dropping, but spiked on the last day.

All in all, this seems to show the measures taken to reduce the tide are starting to work.

The reported numbers from yesterday show a much lower rate of new cases, 502 vs. 1866 the previous day. The number of new deaths is stabilizing as well with yesterday's number at 117. It should start to drop significantly in a week or two as this number will lag the infections.

I am a bit concerned that it seems China has reverted to the previous method of counting infected patients. This may be the cause of the very low newly infected number from yesterday. It is less likely to impact the death count as these patients would have almost certainly have been tested and counted under both systems.

It appears the number of active cases has be dropping for nearly a week now. That's a clear indication that the Chinese have things under control and we are likely seeing the beginning of the end of this disease, at least in China.

The South Koreans seem to have some issues trying to contain the contagion and maybe Italy and Japan as well. We will see how this proceeds.

--

Rick C.

+--- Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
+--- Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

Are you even looking at the news? Italy now has the largest number of
cases outside Asia. The Lombardy (milan) region looks like China,
streets empty, restaurants empty, Veneto region is also hard hit.
Iran suddenly has cases. The deputy health minister was at the head
of a news conference yesterday, trying to minimize the situation.
People noticed he was sweating profusely, mopping his face. Today they announced hehas it. Nice job in how to contain it, go around in public
with obvious symptoms. The rate of cases outside China is growing
exponentially.
And with many of these cases now, health investigators have no idea
how it got transmitted into the new cases. In the past, they usually
could quickly identify the likely source. When it's spreading and
you don't know how, it's a prescription for a pandemic.

A message I was typing got blown away, or it will show up briefly.

This is the sort of BS I am talking about. It doesn't matter how empty the streets are. That's because of measures to stop the spread.

The numbers for Italy I've seen put it behind S. Korea and the diamond princess cruise ship. Way behind S. Korea which has nearly 1,000 infected with Italy a third of that.

The issue is if the methods of stopping the spread that China is using will work elsewhere. We will find out.

--

Rick C.

-- Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
-- Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

 

[Rick C]

On Tuesday, February 25, 2020 at 3:06:49 PM UTC-5, Whoey Louie wrote:

On Tuesday, February 25, 2020 at 10:09:39 AM UTC-5, Rick C wrote:
On Thursday, February 20, 2020 at 11:24:33 AM UTC-5, Rick C wrote:
On Tuesday, February 18, 2020 at 9:36:21 PM UTC-5, Rick C wrote:
On Sunday, February 16, 2020 at 9:24:03 AM UTC-5, Rick C wrote:
Another day of data makes the pattern more clear...

Feb 04 24553
Feb 05 28276 3723
Feb 06 31439 3163
Feb 07 34876 3437
Feb 08 37552 2676
Feb 09 40553 3001
Feb 10 43099 2546
Feb 11 45170 2071
Feb 12 59283 14113
Feb 13 64437 5154
Feb 14 67100 2663
Feb 15 69197 2097

This was the second smallest number of new infections other than the day before the criteria change. Of course this does not indicate the reason for the change. It could be the lack of facilities to process all the sick in the center of the contagion. Or it could be that the measures to prevent the spread of infection are starting to work.

In a similar manner, it appears the death rate is also leveling off, but the numbers are not as clear. Another day or two may provide more clear evidence.

Feb 04 492
Feb 05 565 73
Feb 06 638 73
Feb 07 724 86
Feb 08 813 89
Feb 09 910 97
Feb 10 1018 108
Feb 11 1115 97
Feb 12 1261 146
Feb 13 1383 122
Feb 14 1526 143
Feb 15 1669 143

Here is the more recent data...

Infections Deaths
Total New Total New
Feb 14 67100 2663 Feb 14 1526 143
Feb 15 69197 2097 Feb 15 1669 143
Feb 16 71329 2132 Feb 16 1775 106
Feb 17 73332 2003 Feb 17 1873 98
Feb 18 75198 1866 Feb 18 2009 136

The new infection rate seems to be dropping rather than increasing. The number of deaths had been dropping, but spiked on the last day.

All in all, this seems to show the measures taken to reduce the tide are starting to work.

The reported numbers from yesterday show a much lower rate of new cases, 502 vs. 1866 the previous day. The number of new deaths is stabilizing as well with yesterday's number at 117. It should start to drop significantly in a week or two as this number will lag the infections.

I am a bit concerned that it seems China has reverted to the previous method of counting infected patients. This may be the cause of the very low newly infected number from yesterday. It is less likely to impact the death count as these patients would have almost certainly have been tested and counted under both systems.

It appears the number of active cases has be dropping for nearly a week now. That's a clear indication that the Chinese have things under control and we are likely seeing the beginning of the end of this disease, at least in China.

The South Koreans seem to have some issues trying to contain the contagion and maybe Italy and Japan as well. We will see how this proceeds.

--

Rick C.

+--- Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
+--- Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

Are you even looking at the news? Italy now has the largest number of
cases outside Asia. The Lombardy (milan) region looks like China,
streets empty, restaurants empty, Veneto region is also hard hit.
Iran suddenly has cases. The deputy health minister was at the head
of a news conference yesterday, trying to minimize the situation.
People noticed he was sweating profusely, mopping his face. Today they announced hehas it. Nice job in how to contain it, go around in public
with obvious symptoms. The rate of cases outside China is growing
exponentially.
And with many of these cases now, health investigators have no idea
how it got transmitted into the new cases. In the past, they usually
could quickly identify the likely source. When it's spreading and
you don't know how, it's a prescription for a pandemic.

This is the sort of alarmist BS I'm talking about. I don't care if the streets are empty. How many infected? The data I