OT: more from the resident alarmist

[Whoey Louie]

On Wednesday, February 26, 2020 at 12:46:02 PM UTC-5, Rick C wrote:

On Tuesday, February 25, 2020 at 9:42:42 PM UTC-5, Bill Sloman wrote:
On Wednesday, February 26, 2020 at 12:15:43 PM UTC+11, edward...@gmail.com wrote:
On Tuesday, February 25, 2020 at 3:33:00 PM UTC-8, Rick C wrote:
On Tuesday, February 25, 2020 at 4:03:23 PM UTC-5, edward...@gmail.com wrote:
On Tuesday, February 25, 2020 at 12:06:49 PM UTC-8, Whoey Louie wrote:
On Tuesday, February 25, 2020 at 10:09:39 AM UTC-5, Rick C wrote:
On Thursday, February 20, 2020 at 11:24:33 AM UTC-5, Rick C wrote:
On Tuesday, February 18, 2020 at 9:36:21 PM UTC-5, Rick C wrote:
On Sunday, February 16, 2020 at 9:24:03 AM UTC-5, Rick C wrote:

snip

Can you explain why China continuing to lock down cities is not reducing the spread of the disease?

Today's new cases for China totalled 406. A week or so ago that was around 1500. They haven't eliminated new infections, but they have certainly slowed down the rate at which the disease is spreading.

I mean a real explanation. Oh, wait, you won't give one of those. You aren't capable.

Nobody is capable of telling Edward anything that he has decided that he doesn't want to understand. The problem is with Edward rather than the explanations.

They aren't capable of going to the hospital and becoming the statistic.

They get dragged out of their apartments and taken to hospital as soon as anybody notices that they look sick. The police scan everybody they run into for fever symptoms. Going to hospital isn't always a voluntary choice.

No, not taken to the hospital. Taken to a quarantine center where they receive no care. The hospitals were over loaded some time ago.
It's not clear that they even use these centers as a triage, selecting the critical patients and sending them to the hospitals.

The Chinese efforts at quarantine appear to be rather draconian and remind me of a British TV show I watched once where no one died. They could get sick and comatose, but never actually died. At some point they start burning bodies in mass crematoriums.

--

This from the guy who sees no reason to doubt the veracity of China's
reported numbers.

 

[Whoey Louie]

On Wednesday, February 26, 2020 at 1:38:21 PM UTC-5, edward...@gmail.com wrote:

On Wednesday, February 26, 2020 at 9:46:02 AM UTC-8, Rick C wrote:
On Tuesday, February 25, 2020 at 9:42:42 PM UTC-5, Bill Sloman wrote:
On Wednesday, February 26, 2020 at 12:15:43 PM UTC+11, edward...@gmail.com wrote:
On Tuesday, February 25, 2020 at 3:33:00 PM UTC-8, Rick C wrote:
On Tuesday, February 25, 2020 at 4:03:23 PM UTC-5, edward...@gmail.com wrote:
On Tuesday, February 25, 2020 at 12:06:49 PM UTC-8, Whoey Louie wrote:
On Tuesday, February 25, 2020 at 10:09:39 AM UTC-5, Rick C wrote:
On Thursday, February 20, 2020 at 11:24:33 AM UTC-5, Rick C wrote:
On Tuesday, February 18, 2020 at 9:36:21 PM UTC-5, Rick C wrote:
On Sunday, February 16, 2020 at 9:24:03 AM UTC-5, Rick C wrote:

snip

Can you explain why China continuing to lock down cities is not reducing the spread of the disease?

Today's new cases for China totalled 406. A week or so ago that was around 1500. They haven't eliminated new infections, but they have certainly slowed down the rate at which the disease is spreading.

I mean a real explanation. Oh, wait, you won't give one of those. You aren't capable.

Nobody is capable of telling Edward anything that he has decided that he doesn't want to understand. The problem is with Edward rather than the explanations.

They aren't capable of going to the hospital and becoming the statistic.

They get dragged out of their apartments and taken to hospital as soon as anybody notices that they look sick. The police scan everybody they run into for fever symptoms. Going to hospital isn't always a voluntary choice.

No, not taken to the hospital. Taken to a quarantine center where they receive no care. The hospitals were over loaded some time ago. It's not clear that they even use these centers as a triage, selecting the critical patients and sending them to the hospitals.

The Chinese efforts at quarantine appear to be rather draconian and remind me of a British TV show I watched once where no one died. They could get sick and comatose, but never actually died. At some point they start burning bodies in mass crematoriums.

You understand what's going on in China, then why are you taking their propaganda number as fact?

+1

Seems a govt that according to Rick is just taking people to quarantine
locations where they get no treatment is exactly the kind of govt that
would lie about the extent of that happening. What's better for
China's image? Concentration camps with just 500 a day going in and
ten a day dying? Or 5000 a day going in and 500 a day dying with
no treatment? China, like all commie govts, lies. So, what's the
upside for them in telling the truth? They can lie, make it look
better and who's going to rat them out? If they do, they will disappear
like all those people who made posts or took pictures. Or wind up
dead like the doctor that blew the whistle. And even if something
comes out showing some of the truth, China can just deny it all
anyway. Truth is no one knows the truth.

 

[Tom Gardner]

On 26/02/20 17:45, Rick C wrote:

... and remind me
of a British TV show I watched once where no one died. They could get sick
and comatose, but never actually died. At some point they start burning
bodies in mass crematoriums.

"Torchwood Miracle Day"
Within the limitations of a mass-entertainment Doctor Who spinoff,
it did a respectable job of confronting the issues.
https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0485301/episodes?season=4&ref_=tt_eps_sn_4

In that sense it reminded me of "Threads", which confronted the
issues of what happens after a full scale nuclear war. The last
episode was set 13 years after the attack, and ended with an
anguished scream of despair.
https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0090163/

The contemporary US equivalent, "The Day After", was pathetic in
comparison.
https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0085404/

 

[Rick C]

On Wednesday, February 26, 2020 at 1:01:42 PM UTC-5, Whoey Louie wrote:

On Wednesday, February 26, 2020 at 12:35:48 PM UTC-5, Rick C wrote:
On Tuesday, February 25, 2020 at 8:50:47 PM UTC-5, Whoey Louie wrote:
On Tuesday, February 25, 2020 at 6:33:00 PM UTC-5, Rick C wrote:
On Tuesday, February 25, 2020 at 4:03:23 PM UTC-5, edward...@gmail.com wrote:
On Tuesday, February 25, 2020 at 12:06:49 PM UTC-8, Whoey Louie wrote:
On Tuesday, February 25, 2020 at 10:09:39 AM UTC-5, Rick C wrote:
On Thursday, February 20, 2020 at 11:24:33 AM UTC-5, Rick C wrote:
On Tuesday, February 18, 2020 at 9:36:21 PM UTC-5, Rick C wrote:
On Sunday, February 16, 2020 at 9:24:03 AM UTC-5, Rick C wrote:
Another day of data makes the pattern more clear...

Feb 04 24553
Feb 05 28276 3723
Feb 06 31439 3163
Feb 07 34876 3437
Feb 08 37552 2676
Feb 09 40553 3001
Feb 10 43099 2546
Feb 11 45170 2071
Feb 12 59283 14113
Feb 13 64437 5154
Feb 14 67100 2663
Feb 15 69197 2097

This was the second smallest number of new infections other than the day before the criteria change. Of course this does not indicate the reason for the change. It could be the lack of facilities to process all the sick in the center of the contagion. Or it could be that the measures to prevent the spread of infection are starting to work.

In a similar manner, it appears the death rate is also leveling off, but the numbers are not as clear. Another day or two may provide more clear evidence.

Feb 04 492
Feb 05 565 73
Feb 06 638 73
Feb 07 724 86
Feb 08 813 89
Feb 09 910 97
Feb 10 1018 108
Feb 11 1115 97
Feb 12 1261 146
Feb 13 1383 122
Feb 14 1526 143
Feb 15 1669 143

Here is the more recent data...

Infections Deaths
Total New Total New
Feb 14 67100 2663 Feb 14 1526 143
Feb 15 69197 2097 Feb 15 1669 143
Feb 16 71329 2132 Feb 16 1775 106
Feb 17 73332 2003 Feb 17 1873 98
Feb 18 75198 1866 Feb 18 2009 136

The new infection rate seems to be dropping rather than increasing. The number of deaths had been dropping, but spiked on the last day.

All in all, this seems to show the measures taken to reduce the tide are starting to work.

The reported numbers from yesterday show a much lower rate of new cases, 502 vs. 1866 the previous day. The number of new deaths is stabilizing as well with yesterday's number at 117. It should start to drop significantly in a week or two as this number will lag the infections.

I am a bit concerned that it seems China has reverted to the previous method of counting infected patients. This may be the cause of the very low newly infected number from yesterday. It is less likely to impact the death count as these patients would have almost certainly have been tested and counted under both systems.

It appears the number of active cases has be dropping for nearly a week now. That's a clear indication that the Chinese have things under control and we are likely seeing the beginning of the end of this disease, at least in China.

The South Koreans seem to have some issues trying to contain the contagion and maybe Italy and Japan as well. We will see how this proceeds.

--

Rick C.

+--- Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
+--- Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

Are you even looking at the news? Italy now has the largest number of
cases outside Asia. The Lombardy (milan) region looks like China,
streets empty, restaurants empty, Veneto region is also hard hit.
Iran suddenly has cases. The deputy health minister was at the head
of a news conference yesterday, trying to minimize the situation.
People noticed he was sweating profusely, mopping his face. Today they announced hehas it. Nice job in how to contain it, go around in public
with obvious symptoms. The rate of cases outside China is growing
exponentially.
And with many of these cases now, health investigators have no idea
how it got transmitted into the new cases. In the past, they usually
could quickly identify the likely source. When it's spreading and
you don't know how, it's a prescription for a pandemic.

He is only interested in forwarding CCP propaganda. Without such faithful supporters, propaganda would not work. CCP is very good at manufacturing data and suppressing information. The numbers look too good to be truth. Look at what they do, not what they say. China remains shutdown. 400,000 (15K to 20k more every day) containers of stuffs are not being made. The world is living on the first half of the supply pipe. There is nothing at the second half. Problems/shortages will hit the world soon. Meanwhile, the ruling CCP party is too afraid to even have a meeting in the capital.

Of course China is shut down.

OH my, that's alarmist!



That is how they are containing the virus.

Even if you believe the numbers, it's still steadily spreading.

Not "steadily spreading", spreading at an ever decreasing rate. Even the new deaths are dropping on a daily basis.


It's spreading at an exponential rate outside China, while China's rate
has declined. The result is it's been about flat ~700 new cases per
day over the last week. But cases outside China are now half that and
growing. You don't see health authorities anywhere saying what you
are saying, that the rate of spread is decreasing, do you?

Your math is poor. Here are the latest global numbers for new infections by day since the last measurement change.

976
996
979
554
883
740

The week before the numbers were above 2000 (prior to the a measurement change which was undone by the second change). So the numbers over the last 6 days are not stable around 700, they have declined to 700.

I can't explain the dip three days ago. These numbers are large enough that I would not expect to see such an anomaly. Still, I see no indication of trouble in these numbers and while it is still early, it does seem to indicate China has addressed their problem. It does show the draconian measures require to limit the disease.

While the numbers outside of China seem to have problems, It is largely due to three countries. We will see if they manage to contain the virus. I'll try tracking the top few countries to see if they get the spread under control.

This is not a disease that will go way by getting it heading in the right direction and then giving up.

Why are you giving up then?

I didn't post that. I didn't see anyone saying to give up either.

It was in your post, but without proper attribution. So it looked like you said it.

https://groups.google.com/d/msg/sci.electronics.design/NmFIcGLkNkM/EjkVYPONAwAJ

But even here the CDC is now saying that Americans
should prepare for the spread of the virus. Rather odd, if it's
dwindling, going down, for them to be issuing that warning now, isn't it?

Not at all. If someone points a gun at you, when they lower the weapon, do you relax and assume everything is fine?

> Maybe Trump will be right and it will go away with spring, we'll see.

I don't believe that is how it worked with the Spanish flu of 1918. It lasted through 1920 and likely started in 1917.

Can you explain why China continuing to lock down cities is not reducing the spread of the disease? I mean a real explanation. Oh, wait, you won't give one of those. You aren't capable.


That's alarmist!

What's alarmist?

You reporting that China has locked down cities. When I said the
streets of Milan are empty, it looks like China, you called that alarmist..

Reporting facts is not alarmist. Offering that fact as proof of a raging disease that is out of control is not. They are taking measures to prevent this disease from spreading in their country.

But as I have said, it is still early days and we will see what happens outside of China as we monitor what is happening inside China.

--

Rick C.

--- Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
--- Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

 

[Rick C]

On Wednesday, February 26, 2020 at 1:52:56 PM UTC-5, Whoey Louie wrote:

On Wednesday, February 26, 2020 at 1:38:21 PM UTC-5, edward...@gmail.com wrote:
On Wednesday, February 26, 2020 at 9:46:02 AM UTC-8, Rick C wrote:
On Tuesday, February 25, 2020 at 9:42:42 PM UTC-5, Bill Sloman wrote:
On Wednesday, February 26, 2020 at 12:15:43 PM UTC+11, edward...@gmail.com wrote:
On Tuesday, February 25, 2020 at 3:33:00 PM UTC-8, Rick C wrote:
On Tuesday, February 25, 2020 at 4:03:23 PM UTC-5, edward...@gmail.com wrote:
On Tuesday, February 25, 2020 at 12:06:49 PM UTC-8, Whoey Louie wrote:
On Tuesday, February 25, 2020 at 10:09:39 AM UTC-5, Rick C wrote:
On Thursday, February 20, 2020 at 11:24:33 AM UTC-5, Rick C wrote:
On Tuesday, February 18, 2020 at 9:36:21 PM UTC-5, Rick C wrote:
On Sunday, February 16, 2020 at 9:24:03 AM UTC-5, Rick C wrote:

snip

Can you explain why China continuing to lock down cities is not reducing the spread of the disease?

Today's new cases for China totalled 406. A week or so ago that was around 1500. They haven't eliminated new infections, but they have certainly slowed down the rate at which the disease is spreading.

I mean a real explanation. Oh, wait, you won't give one of those.. You aren't capable.

Nobody is capable of telling Edward anything that he has decided that he doesn't want to understand. The problem is with Edward rather than the explanations.

They aren't capable of going to the hospital and becoming the statistic.

They get dragged out of their apartments and taken to hospital as soon as anybody notices that they look sick. The police scan everybody they run into for fever symptoms. Going to hospital isn't always a voluntary choice.

No, not taken to the hospital. Taken to a quarantine center where they receive no care. The hospitals were over loaded some time ago. It's not clear that they even use these centers as a triage, selecting the critical patients and sending them to the hospitals.

The Chinese efforts at quarantine appear to be rather draconian and remind me of a British TV show I watched once where no one died. They could get sick and comatose, but never actually died. At some point they start burning bodies in mass crematoriums.

You understand what's going on in China, then why are you taking their propaganda number as fact?

+1

Seems a govt that according to Rick is just taking people to quarantine
locations where they get no treatment is exactly the kind of govt that
would lie about the extent of that happening.

I don't see a connection. Let's say you are in charge of the situation in China. You have ultimate control over everything in the country. How would you treat all these people?

What's better for
China's image? Concentration camps with just 500 a day going in and
ten a day dying? Or 5000 a day going in and 500 a day dying with
no treatment? China, like all commie govts, lies. So, what's the
upside for them in telling the truth? They can lie, make it look
better and who's going to rat them out? If they do, they will disappear
like all those people who made posts or took pictures. Or wind up
dead like the doctor that blew the whistle. And even if something
comes out showing some of the truth, China can just deny it all
anyway. Truth is no one knows the truth.

No, once you assume that everyone lies all the time it is hard to know what to believe. I try to weigh my sources and figure out which ones lie when and who/when I can trust.

I'm sure the numbers in China are distorted, but that's only because it is hard to know who has the disease and who doesn't. I don't believe the Chinese government is intentionally lying. I don't see any upside for them to lie. At this point they know they will be found out, just as a doctor who reported the new disease early on was forced tot recant... and this was found out. Now if they are found to be significantly lying about the contagion, many businesses would have a hard time coming back.

--

Rick C.

--+ Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
--+ Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

 

[whit3rd]

On Wednesday, February 26, 2020 at 12:54:47 PM UTC-8, Rick C wrote:

On Wednesday, February 26, 2020 at 1:52:56 PM UTC-5, Whoey Louie wrote:

Seems a govt that according to Rick is just taking people to quarantine
locations where they get no treatment...

I don't see a connection. Let's say you are in charge of the situation in China. You have ultimate control over everything in the country. How would you treat all these people?

Offer a stipend for recovered patients, to put on a nursing uniform and tend a ward
(under supervision via videoconferencing technology). At the end of tour-of-duty,
a decontaminant shower and permission to exit the hospital is granted.

 

[Bill Sloman]

On Thursday, February 27, 2020 at 2:33:31 AM UTC+11, Whoey Louie wrote:

On Tuesday, February 25, 2020 at 10:01:54 PM UTC-5, Bill Sloman wrote:
On Wednesday, February 26, 2020 at 12:44:10 PM UTC+11, Whoey Louie wrote:
On Tuesday, February 25, 2020 at 6:30:18 PM UTC-5, Rick C wrote:
On Tuesday, February 25, 2020 at 3:06:49 PM UTC-5, Whoey Louie wrote:
On Tuesday, February 25, 2020 at 10:09:39 AM UTC-5, Rick C wrote:
On Thursday, February 20, 2020 at 11:24:33 AM UTC-5, Rick C wrote:
On Tuesday, February 18, 2020 at 9:36:21 PM UTC-5, Rick C wrote:
On Sunday, February 16, 2020 at 9:24:03 AM UTC-5, Rick C wrote:

snip

And with many of these cases now, health investigators have no idea
how it got transmitted into the new cases.

They've got a pretty exact idea of how.

That's obviously BS, when you don't know who the source even was.


They don't know who from.

Bingo, you don't know from who, so you also don't know how, obviously.



In the past, they usually
could quickly identify the likely source.

When you have very few cases, contact tracing works.

Italy and most other countries still have relatively low numbers.
But regardless, once you can't track it to confine it, then it's
well on it's way to a pandemic.



When it's spreading and
you don't know how, it's a prescription for a pandemic.

It's necessary condition for a pandemic, but not a sufficient one.

Lock-down can demonstrably stop and local epidemic developing into a pandemic, as it has in China.

This is the sort of BS I am talking about. It doesn't matter how empty the streets are. That's because of measures to stop the spread.

The numbers for Italy I've seen put it behind S. Korea and the diamond princess cruise ship. Way behind S. Korea which has nearly 1,000 infected with Italy a third of that.

The issue is if the methods of stopping the spread that China is using will work elsewhere. We will find out.

The issue is the measures are not working, that's why it's in 41 countries and growing exponentially outside China.

China didn't get onto the infection fast enough to stop people taking it elsewhere. Most places got potentially infected people into some kind of isolation for a fortnight, so that if they did have the disease they didn't spread it. Italy and Iran and South Korea didn't do that effectively enough.

And the China numbers are suspect.

They aren't going to be 100% accurate, but they are more reliable than numbers dreamed up by some anxious idiot.

That would be you. You've claimed here many times that the death rate
is 20%.

I said that exactly once - the context was your claim that the virus could spread undetected, and the aim was to remind you that it killed enough people to make it quite noticeable - which is what is happening in Iran at the moment.

When you pushed me on it, I documented my reasoning and sources - which you've never done (probably because you are too dim to understand how, even with a worked example in front of you).

Since then I've referred people to

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/

Which is pure BS and shows that you don't even have the most
very basic of facts.

That's a lie. It wasn't a good estimate when I posted it, but it was based on defensible logic, and based on the facts that had been published at the time, which I immediately spelled out. You never reacted to that, and don't seem to have any grasp of the issues involved.

The actual death rate is around 2% and that has
been all over the freaking media for a month.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/

begs to differ. You are too stupid to realise that a bunch of under-informed commentators can be expected to make the same kind of stupid error. The better-informed bits of the media use longer words than you are comfortable with.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

 

[Bill Sloman]

On Thursday, February 27, 2020 at 5:38:21 AM UTC+11, edward...@gmail.com wrote:

On Wednesday, February 26, 2020 at 9:46:02 AM UTC-8, Rick C wrote:
On Tuesday, February 25, 2020 at 9:42:42 PM UTC-5, Bill Sloman wrote:
On Wednesday, February 26, 2020 at 12:15:43 PM UTC+11, edward...@gmail.com wrote:
On Tuesday, February 25, 2020 at 3:33:00 PM UTC-8, Rick C wrote:
On Tuesday, February 25, 2020 at 4:03:23 PM UTC-5, edward...@gmail.com wrote:
On Tuesday, February 25, 2020 at 12:06:49 PM UTC-8, Whoey Louie wrote:
On Tuesday, February 25, 2020 at 10:09:39 AM UTC-5, Rick C wrote:
On Thursday, February 20, 2020 at 11:24:33 AM UTC-5, Rick C wrote:
On Tuesday, February 18, 2020 at 9:36:21 PM UTC-5, Rick C wrote:
On Sunday, February 16, 2020 at 9:24:03 AM UTC-5, Rick C wrote:

<snip>

The Chinese efforts at quarantine appear to be rather draconian and remind me of a British TV show I watched once where no one died. They could get sick and comatose, but never actually died. At some point they start burning bodies in mass crematoriums.

You understand what's going on in China, then why are you taking their propaganda number as fact?

It isn't actually clear that they are propaganda. They may be inadequate and incomplete, but they do seem to be as close to factual as anything else available. In any event better than anything you have been able to provide a link to.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

 

[Bill Sloman]

On Thursday, February 27, 2020 at 2:34:00 AM UTC+11, Whoey Louie wrote:

On Tuesday, February 25, 2020 at 10:06:18 PM UTC-5, Bill Sloman wrote:
On Wednesday, February 26, 2020 at 12:47:00 PM UTC+11, Whoey Louie wrote:
On Tuesday, February 25, 2020 at 6:32:35 PM UTC-5, Bill Sloman wrote:
On Wednesday, February 26, 2020 at 8:41:43 AM UTC+11, Whoey Louie wrote:
On Tuesday, February 25, 2020 at 4:03:23 PM UTC-5, edward...@gmail.com wrote:
On Tuesday, February 25, 2020 at 12:06:49 PM UTC-8, Whoey Louie wrote:
On Tuesday, February 25, 2020 at 10:09:39 AM UTC-5, Rick C wrote:
On Thursday, February 20, 2020 at 11:24:33 AM UTC-5, Rick C wrote:
On Tuesday, February 18, 2020 at 9:36:21 PM UTC-5, Rick C wrote:
On Sunday, February 16, 2020 at 9:24:03 AM UTC-5, Rick C wrote:

<snip>

The above is from the village idiot who claims the death rate is 20%. Nuff said about that.

This from the village idiot who claimed that it was 2%. I had a rational basis for my estimate, and spelled out exactly why I had come up with that number (and what was potentially wrong with it) when you called me on it.

You still haven't recognised that your 2% estimate was rather sillier, or told us where you got it.

Google broken down under, stupid?

The web is full of misinformation. It doesn't matter much which other gibbering idiot provided the bad information that you passed on, but the fact that you couldn't identify where you got the information tells us all we need to know about you.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

 

[Bill Sloman]

On Thursday, February 27, 2020 at 4:43:08 AM UTC+11, Whoey Louie wrote:

On Wednesday, February 26, 2020 at 12:12:08 PM UTC-5, Rick C wrote:
On Tuesday, February 25, 2020 at 8:44:10 PM UTC-5, Whoey Louie wrote:
On Tuesday, February 25, 2020 at 6:30:18 PM UTC-5, Rick C wrote:
On Tuesday, February 25, 2020 at 3:06:49 PM UTC-5, Whoey Louie wrote:
On Tuesday, February 25, 2020 at 10:09:39 AM UTC-5, Rick C wrote:
On Thursday, February 20, 2020 at 11:24:33 AM UTC-5, Rick C wrote:
On Tuesday, February 18, 2020 at 9:36:21 PM UTC-5, Rick C wrote:
On Sunday, February 16, 2020 at 9:24:03 AM UTC-5, Rick C wrote:
Another day of data makes the pattern more clear...

Feb 04 24553
Feb 05 28276 3723
Feb 06 31439 3163
Feb 07 34876 3437
Feb 08 37552 2676
Feb 09 40553 3001
Feb 10 43099 2546
Feb 11 45170 2071
Feb 12 59283 14113
Feb 13 64437 5154
Feb 14 67100 2663
Feb 15 69197 2097

This was the second smallest number of new infections other than the day before the criteria change. Of course this does not indicate the reason for the change. It could be the lack of facilities to process all the sick in the center of the contagion. Or it could be that the measures to prevent the spread of infection are starting to work.

In a similar manner, it appears the death rate is also leveling off, but the numbers are not as clear. Another day or two may provide more clear evidence.

Feb 04 492
Feb 05 565 73
Feb 06 638 73
Feb 07 724 86
Feb 08 813 89
Feb 09 910 97
Feb 10 1018 108
Feb 11 1115 97
Feb 12 1261 146
Feb 13 1383 122
Feb 14 1526 143
Feb 15 1669 143

Here is the more recent data...

Infections Deaths
Total New Total New
Feb 14 67100 2663 Feb 14 1526 143
Feb 15 69197 2097 Feb 15 1669 143
Feb 16 71329 2132 Feb 16 1775 106
Feb 17 73332 2003 Feb 17 1873 98
Feb 18 75198 1866 Feb 18 2009 136

The new infection rate seems to be dropping rather than increasing. The number of deaths had been dropping, but spiked on the last day.

All in all, this seems to show the measures taken to reduce the tide are starting to work.

The reported numbers from yesterday show a much lower rate of new cases, 502 vs. 1866 the previous day. The number of new deaths is stabilizing as well with yesterday's number at 117. It should start to drop significantly in a week or two as this number will lag the infections.

I am a bit concerned that it seems China has reverted to the previous method of counting infected patients. This may be the cause of the very low newly infected number from yesterday. It is less likely to impact the death count as these patients would have almost certainly have been tested and counted under both systems.

It appears the number of active cases has be dropping for nearly a week now. That's a clear indication that the Chinese have things under control and we are likely seeing the beginning of the end of this disease, at least in China.

The South Koreans seem to have some issues trying to contain the contagion and maybe Italy and Japan as well. We will see how this proceeds.

--

Rick C.

+--- Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
+--- Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

Are you even looking at the news? Italy now has the largest number of
cases outside Asia. The Lombardy (milan) region looks like China,
streets empty, restaurants empty, Veneto region is also hard hit.
Iran suddenly has cases. The deputy health minister was at the head
of a news conference yesterday, trying to minimize the situation.
People noticed he was sweating profusely, mopping his face. Today they announced hehas it. Nice job in how to contain it, go around in public
with obvious symptoms. The rate of cases outside China is growing
exponentially.
And with many of these cases now, health investigators have no idea
how it got transmitted into the new cases. In the past, they usually
could quickly identify the likely source. When it's spreading and
you don't know how, it's a prescription for a pandemic.

A message I was typing got blown away, or it will show up briefly.

This is the sort of BS I am talking about. It doesn't matter how empty the streets are. That's because of measures to stop the spread.

The numbers for Italy I've seen put it behind S. Korea and the diamond princess cruise ship. Way behind S. Korea which has nearly 1,000 infected with Italy a third of that.

The issue is if the methods of stopping the spread that China is using will work elsewhere. We will find out.

--


The issue is the measures are not working, that's why it's in 41 countries and growing exponentially outside China. And the China numbers are suspect. And no cases in Africa? Soon we'll probably find out there are actually thousands there and not identified and reported for obvious reasons.

Why are the Chinese numbers suspect?

Because China has a history of lying, hiding, minimizing. Because
they won't allow experts from other countries in? And because
the numbers of new infections there have supposedly decreased
substantially, while in all other countries it's growing exponentially.
It could be that China is more successful or it could be they are lying.

It's more likely that they are successful. Lying about a non-existent success would get in the way of doing the kind of drastic stuff that would be required to cope with an actual pandemic.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

 

[Bill Sloman]

On Thursday, February 27, 2020 at 5:52:56 AM UTC+11, Whoey Louie wrote:

On Wednesday, February 26, 2020 at 1:38:21 PM UTC-5, edward...@gmail.com wrote:
On Wednesday, February 26, 2020 at 9:46:02 AM UTC-8, Rick C wrote:
On Tuesday, February 25, 2020 at 9:42:42 PM UTC-5, Bill Sloman wrote:
On Wednesday, February 26, 2020 at 12:15:43 PM UTC+11, edward...@gmail.com wrote:
On Tuesday, February 25, 2020 at 3:33:00 PM UTC-8, Rick C wrote:
On Tuesday, February 25, 2020 at 4:03:23 PM UTC-5, edward...@gmail.com wrote:
On Tuesday, February 25, 2020 at 12:06:49 PM UTC-8, Whoey Louie wrote:
On Tuesday, February 25, 2020 at 10:09:39 AM UTC-5, Rick C wrote:
On Thursday, February 20, 2020 at 11:24:33 AM UTC-5, Rick C wrote:
On Tuesday, February 18, 2020 at 9:36:21 PM UTC-5, Rick C wrote:
On Sunday, February 16, 2020 at 9:24:03 AM UTC-5, Rick C wrote:

snip

Can you explain why China continuing to lock down cities is not reducing the spread of the disease?

Today's new cases for China totalled 406. A week or so ago that was around 1500. They haven't eliminated new infections, but they have certainly slowed down the rate at which the disease is spreading.

I mean a real explanation. Oh, wait, you won't give one of those.. You aren't capable.

Nobody is capable of telling Edward anything that he has decided that he doesn't want to understand. The problem is with Edward rather than the explanations.

They aren't capable of going to the hospital and becoming the statistic.

They get dragged out of their apartments and taken to hospital as soon as anybody notices that they look sick. The police scan everybody they run into for fever symptoms. Going to hospital isn't always a voluntary choice.

No, not taken to the hospital. Taken to a quarantine center where they receive no care. The hospitals were over loaded some time ago. It's not clear that they even use these centers as a triage, selecting the critical patients and sending them to the hospitals.

The Chinese efforts at quarantine appear to be rather draconian and remind me of a British TV show I watched once where no one died. They could get sick and comatose, but never actually died. At some point they start burning bodies in mass crematoriums.

You understand what's going on in China, then why are you taking their propaganda number as fact?

That's not much evidence that they are propaganda. China doesn't seem to have been able to test enough people at the start of the epidemic to generate accurate estimates of the number infected back then. Since then they have raised their game.

Seems a govt that according to Rick is just taking people to quarantine
locations where they get no treatment is exactly the kind of govt that
would lie about the extent of that happening.

80% of the infections reported from China seem to be mild, and don't need treatment. You don't want them infecting other people, so you do need to isolate them.

What's better for China's image? Concentration camps with just 500 a day going in and ten a day dying? Or 5000 a day going in and 500 a day dying with
no treatment? China, like all commie govts, lies.

Governments all lie, when it wins them an advantage. Sadly, you can't claim that everything they claim is a lie, and they rarely lie when it's likely that they will be caught out.

> So, what's the upside for them in telling the truth? They can lie, make it look better and who's going to rat them out?

The factories that have to shut down because all the people who used to work there are dead. The corona virus epidemic is doing real damage to the Chinese economy, and they need to report that in enough detail to let them explain missed deliveries.

> If they do, they will disappear like all those people who made posts or took pictures.

Example?

> Or wind up dead like the doctor that blew the whistle.

He seems to have died from infection by the new corona virus.

> And even if something comes out showing some of the truth, China can just deny it all anyway. Truth is no one knows the truth.

You certainly don't, and don't seem have the kinds of skills required to sort truth from lies.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

 

[Bill Sloman]

On Thursday, February 27, 2020 at 4:39:49 AM UTC+11, Whoey Louie wrote:

On Wednesday, February 26, 2020 at 12:11:18 PM UTC-5, Rick C wrote:
On Tuesday, February 25, 2020 at 8:15:43 PM UTC-5, edward...@gmail.com wrote:
On Tuesday, February 25, 2020 at 3:33:00 PM UTC-8, Rick C wrote:

Of course China is shut down. That is how they are containing the virus. This is not a disease that will go way by getting it heading in the right direction and then giving up.

Can you explain why China continuing to lock down cities is not reducing the spread of the disease? I mean a real explanation. Oh, wait, you won't give one of those. You aren't capable.

They aren't capable of going to the hospital and becoming the statistic. Each locked up area is a tiny Diamond Princess. It will be released eventually.

Every illness and death on the Diamond Princess is tested and reported. Why do you think the city can't report their deaths accurately?

Because Japan had just one main hot spot, not thousands? Because
Japan's hospitals and facilities are not overwhelmed?
Because Japan is Japan and not China? Because China has a history
of lying, hiding, minimizing? What do you suppose is going on in North
Korea right now? They have zero cases, right?

Probably not.

> They are probably chock full of Covid.

Probably not.

And they have slave labor workers going all over Russia,
Africa, Mideast. There's a nice vector to spread it.

But they only move when they get sent out, or sent back. They don't go home to see their family every year. And they are remarkably easy to keep isolated.

> And Africa and similar, they wouldn't even know there is infection until it's well on it's way.

People dying is noticeable, as Iran is currently illustrating.

You don't need many to generate a lot of attention.

> Go ahead, call me alarmist.

No need. You are too obviously stupid for your demented delusions to alarm anybody.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

 

[Rick C]

On Wednesday, February 26, 2020 at 8:35:17 PM UTC-5, whit3rd wrote:

On Wednesday, February 26, 2020 at 12:54:47 PM UTC-8, Rick C wrote:
On Wednesday, February 26, 2020 at 1:52:56 PM UTC-5, Whoey Louie wrote:

Seems a govt that according to Rick is just taking people to quarantine
locations where they get no treatment...

I don't see a connection. Let's say you are in charge of the situation in China. You have ultimate control over everything in the country. How would you treat all these people?


Offer a stipend for recovered patients, to put on a nursing uniform and tend a ward
(under supervision via videoconferencing technology). At the end of tour-of-duty,
a decontaminant shower and permission to exit the hospital is granted.

So you are going to remove caregivers from the hospitals? Or are you going to use untrained people?

With an 80%+ recovery rate I can't see the stipend being much of a motivator to giving quality care. I guess any care is better than none.

I also don't see your showers working. Rather a full containment suit would be required.

I seem to recall there being some controversy about the caregiver protections in the US during the Ebola outbreak. The nurses were accused of being sloppy with putting the gear on and the nurses said it was very difficult to take off without being contaminated.

I think China is taking emergency measures as best they can. Not so much different from our response to Katrina. Until we see the final results I'm not going to criticism their efforts. It is exactly their totalitarian measures that are being lauded for their apparent success so far. The fear is that countries with more freedoms won't be able to contain the virus in the same aggressive way.

If the virus does turn into a pandemic, there won't be anywhere to hide for sure.

--

Rick C.

-+- Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
-+- Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

 

[Tom Gardner]

On 26/02/20 15:33, Whoey Louie wrote:
> Google broken down under, stupid?

You clearly don't understand google:

1) google shows crap as well as gold
2) google gives different people different results for the same query

You make claims, you provide the references

 

[Whoey Louie]

On Wednesday, February 26, 2020 at 3:44:05 PM UTC-5, Rick C wrote:

On Wednesday, February 26, 2020 at 1:01:42 PM UTC-5, Whoey Louie wrote:
On Wednesday, February 26, 2020 at 12:35:48 PM UTC-5, Rick C wrote:
On Tuesday, February 25, 2020 at 8:50:47 PM UTC-5, Whoey Louie wrote:
On Tuesday, February 25, 2020 at 6:33:00 PM UTC-5, Rick C wrote:
On Tuesday, February 25, 2020 at 4:03:23 PM UTC-5, edward...@gmail.com wrote:
On Tuesday, February 25, 2020 at 12:06:49 PM UTC-8, Whoey Louie wrote:
On Tuesday, February 25, 2020 at 10:09:39 AM UTC-5, Rick C wrote:
On Thursday, February 20, 2020 at 11:24:33 AM UTC-5, Rick C wrote:
On Tuesday, February 18, 2020 at 9:36:21 PM UTC-5, Rick C wrote:
On Sunday, February 16, 2020 at 9:24:03 AM UTC-5, Rick C wrote:
Another day of data makes the pattern more clear...

Feb 04 24553
Feb 05 28276 3723
Feb 06 31439 3163
Feb 07 34876 3437
Feb 08 37552 2676
Feb 09 40553 3001
Feb 10 43099 2546
Feb 11 45170 2071
Feb 12 59283 14113
Feb 13 64437 5154
Feb 14 67100 2663
Feb 15 69197 2097

This was the second smallest number of new infections other than the day before the criteria change. Of course this does not indicate the reason for the change. It could be the lack of facilities to process all the sick in the center of the contagion. Or it could be that the measures to prevent the spread of infection are starting to work.

In a similar manner, it appears the death rate is also leveling off, but the numbers are not as clear. Another day or two may provide more clear evidence.

Feb 04 492
Feb 05 565 73
Feb 06 638 73
Feb 07 724 86
Feb 08 813 89
Feb 09 910 97
Feb 10 1018 108
Feb 11 1115 97
Feb 12 1261 146
Feb 13 1383 122
Feb 14 1526 143
Feb 15 1669 143

Here is the more recent data...

Infections Deaths
Total New Total New
Feb 14 67100 2663 Feb 14 1526 143
Feb 15 69197 2097 Feb 15 1669 143
Feb 16 71329 2132 Feb 16 1775 106
Feb 17 73332 2003 Feb 17 1873 98
Feb 18 75198 1866 Feb 18 2009 136

The new infection rate seems to be dropping rather than increasing. The number of deaths had been dropping, but spiked on the last day.

All in all, this seems to show the measures taken to reduce the tide are starting to work.

The reported numbers from yesterday show a much lower rate of new cases, 502 vs. 1866 the previous day. The number of new deaths is stabilizing as well with yesterday's number at 117. It should start to drop significantly in a week or two as this number will lag the infections.

I am a bit concerned that it seems China has reverted to the previous method of counting infected patients. This may be the cause of the very low newly infected number from yesterday. It is less likely to impact the death count as these patients would have almost certainly have been tested and counted under both systems.

It appears the number of active cases has be dropping for nearly a week now. That's a clear indication that the Chinese have things under control and we are likely seeing the beginning of the end of this disease, at least in China.

The South Koreans seem to have some issues trying to contain the contagion and maybe Italy and Japan as well. We will see how this proceeds.

--

Rick C.

+--- Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
+--- Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

Are you even looking at the news? Italy now has the largest number of
cases outside Asia. The Lombardy (milan) region looks like China,
streets empty, restaurants empty, Veneto region is also hard hit.
Iran suddenly has cases. The deputy health minister was at the head
of a news conference yesterday, trying to minimize the situation.
People noticed he was sweating profusely, mopping his face. Today they announced hehas it. Nice job in how to contain it, go around in public
with obvious symptoms. The rate of cases outside China is growing
exponentially.
And with many of these cases now, health investigators have no idea
how it got transmitted into the new cases. In the past, they usually
could quickly identify the likely source. When it's spreading and
you don't know how, it's a prescription for a pandemic.

He is only interested in forwarding CCP propaganda. Without such faithful supporters, propaganda would not work. CCP is very good at manufacturing data and suppressing information. The numbers look too good to be truth. Look at what they do, not what they say. China remains shutdown.. 400,000 (15K to 20k more every day) containers of stuffs are not being made. The world is living on the first half of the supply pipe. There is nothing at the second half. Problems/shortages will hit the world soon. Meanwhile, the ruling CCP party is too afraid to even have a meeting in the capital.

Of course China is shut down.

OH my, that's alarmist!



That is how they are containing the virus.

Even if you believe the numbers, it's still steadily spreading.

Not "steadily spreading", spreading at an ever decreasing rate. Even the new deaths are dropping on a daily basis.


It's spreading at an exponential rate outside China, while China's rate
has declined. The result is it's been about flat ~700 new cases per
day over the last week. But cases outside China are now half that and
growing. You don't see health authorities anywhere saying what you
are saying, that the rate of spread is decreasing, do you?

Your math is poor. Here are the latest global numbers for new infections by day since the last measurement change.

976
996
979
554
883
740

Nothing wrong with my math. Exactly what I posted is true, it's growing
exponentially outside China, while China's numbers have declined. You
won't see that in the numbers you keep using, because that's the combined
numbers. Today the new case number is higher than ANY of your numbers
above, 1000, with 570 of those being from outside China. So now the
daily new cases outside China exceeds the new cases in China. Which
again is reason to be suspicious of the China numbers.



> The week before the numbers were above 2000 (prior to the a measurement change which was undone by the second change). So the numbers over the last 6 days are not stable around 700, they have declined to 700.

And today it's 1000. But heh, I'm alarmist.

I can't explain the dip three days ago. These numbers are large enough that I would not expect to see such an anomaly. Still, I see no indication of trouble in these numbers

That's because you're not looking at the numbers OUTSIDE China, in the
other 40+ countries. Those have been growing exponentially for over
a month. Now they have surpassed China's, that is if the China numbers
are true, which i doubt.



and while it is still early, it does seem to indicate China has addressed their problem. It does show the draconian measures require to limit the disease.

While the numbers outside of China seem to have problems, It is largely due to three countries.

It was one country, then two, then three, now it's 40+. Can you spell
pandemic?


> We will see if they manage to contain the virus. I'll try tracking the top few countries to see if they get the spread under control.

The CDC said yesterday that the spread within the US is inevitable.

This is not a disease that will go way by getting it heading in the right direction and then giving up.

Why are you giving up then?

I didn't post that. I didn't see anyone saying to give up either.

It was in your post, but without proper attribution. So it looked like you said it.

https://groups.google.com/d/msg/sci.electronics.design/NmFIcGLkNkM/EjkVYPONAwAJ

But even here the CDC is now saying that Americans
should prepare for the spread of the virus. Rather odd, if it's
dwindling, going down, for them to be issuing that warning now, isn't it?

Not at all. If someone points a gun at you, when they lower the weapon, do you relax and assume everything is fine?

Maybe Trump will be right and it will go away with spring, we'll see.

I don't believe that is how it worked with the Spanish flu of 1918. It lasted through 1920 and likely started in 1917.


Can you explain why China continuing to lock down cities is not reducing the spread of the disease? I mean a real explanation. Oh, wait, you won't give one of those. You aren't capable.


That's alarmist!

What's alarmist?

You reporting that China has locked down cities. When I said the
streets of Milan are empty, it looks like China, you called that alarmist.

Reporting facts is not alarmist. Offering that fact as proof of a raging disease that is out of control is not. They are taking measures to prevent this disease from spreading in their country.

But as I have said, it is still early days and we will see what happens outside of China as we monitor what is happening inside China.

We know what's happening outside China, it's rapidly spreading, exponentially
and has been for a month. We now have the first community spread case
in the US, someone near Sacremento has it and there is no known contact
that can explain how they were infected. One person on an airplane
can probably infect a dozen people.

--

Rick C.

--- Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
--- Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

 

[Whoey Louie]

On Wednesday, February 26, 2020 at 3:54:47 PM UTC-5, Rick C wrote:

On Wednesday, February 26, 2020 at 1:52:56 PM UTC-5, Whoey Louie wrote:
On Wednesday, February 26, 2020 at 1:38:21 PM UTC-5, edward...@gmail.com wrote:
On Wednesday, February 26, 2020 at 9:46:02 AM UTC-8, Rick C wrote:
On Tuesday, February 25, 2020 at 9:42:42 PM UTC-5, Bill Sloman wrote:
On Wednesday, February 26, 2020 at 12:15:43 PM UTC+11, edward...@gmail.com wrote:
On Tuesday, February 25, 2020 at 3:33:00 PM UTC-8, Rick C wrote:
On Tuesday, February 25, 2020 at 4:03:23 PM UTC-5, edward...@gmail.com wrote:
On Tuesday, February 25, 2020 at 12:06:49 PM UTC-8, Whoey Louie wrote:
On Tuesday, February 25, 2020 at 10:09:39 AM UTC-5, Rick C wrote:
On Thursday, February 20, 2020 at 11:24:33 AM UTC-5, Rick C wrote:
On Tuesday, February 18, 2020 at 9:36:21 PM UTC-5, Rick C wrote:
On Sunday, February 16, 2020 at 9:24:03 AM UTC-5, Rick C wrote:

snip

Can you explain why China continuing to lock down cities is not reducing the spread of the disease?

Today's new cases for China totalled 406. A week or so ago that was around 1500. They haven't eliminated new infections, but they have certainly slowed down the rate at which the disease is spreading.

I mean a real explanation. Oh, wait, you won't give one of those. You aren't capable.

Nobody is capable of telling Edward anything that he has decided that he doesn't want to understand. The problem is with Edward rather than the explanations.

They aren't capable of going to the hospital and becoming the statistic.

They get dragged out of their apartments and taken to hospital as soon as anybody notices that they look sick. The police scan everybody they run into for fever symptoms. Going to hospital isn't always a voluntary choice.

No, not taken to the hospital. Taken to a quarantine center where they receive no care. The hospitals were over loaded some time ago. It's not clear that they even use these centers as a triage, selecting the critical patients and sending them to the hospitals.

The Chinese efforts at quarantine appear to be rather draconian and remind me of a British TV show I watched once where no one died. They could get sick and comatose, but never actually died. At some point they start burning bodies in mass crematoriums.

You understand what's going on in China, then why are you taking their propaganda number as fact?

+1

Seems a govt that according to Rick is just taking people to quarantine
locations where they get no treatment is exactly the kind of govt that
would lie about the extent of that happening.

I don't see a connection. Let's say you are in charge of the situation in China. You have ultimate control over everything in the country. How would you treat all these people?

How about treating them?

What's better for
China's image? Concentration camps with just 500 a day going in and
ten a day dying? Or 5000 a day going in and 500 a day dying with
no treatment? China, like all commie govts, lies. So, what's the
upside for them in telling the truth? They can lie, make it look
better and who's going to rat them out? If they do, they will disappear
like all those people who made posts or took pictures. Or wind up
dead like the doctor that blew the whistle. And even if something
comes out showing some of the truth, China can just deny it all
anyway. Truth is no one knows the truth.

No, once you assume that everyone lies all the time it is hard to know what to believe. I try to weigh my sources and figure out which ones lie when and who/when I can trust.

No one is assuming everyone lies and judging the veracity of facts by
the source is exactly why we're suspicious of China.

I'm sure the numbers in China are distorted, but that's only because it is hard to know who has the disease and who doesn't.

And you know this how? China has a history of lying about disease spread
as well as a long, long list of other things. Have you not seen the people
who have been detained, disappeared, gone missing after they posted pictures
or blogged about what is happening?




>I don't believe the Chinese government is intentionally lying.

You can choose to believe whatever you want to believe. It's typical that
libs love to believe commie govts.


> I don't see any upside for them to lie. At this point they know they will be found out, just as a doctor who reported the new disease early on was forced tot recant...

He's dead now and some suspect he may have been put down. You don't see
any upside for lying? Then why did China do exactly that with previous
similar situations? What will be utlimately found out? This isn't a court
room. China controls their press, they can just stick to the official
lies and deny, deny, deny. Eventually it all blows over.


and this was found out. Now if they are found to be significantly lying about the contagion, many businesses would have a hard time coming back.
>

Businesses will be affected the same whether they lie or not. Lying
could help, would you be more likely to fly to a country on business
if they say the place is under control, it's dwindling or if you say
it's all over the place and spreading?

And yesterday we had the first community spread case in the USA identified.
Very possible there are many more across the country, because we're
only looking for them in 5 major cities.

 

[Whoey Louie]

On Wednesday, February 26, 2020 at 8:26:28 PM UTC-5, Bill Sloman wrote:

On Thursday, February 27, 2020 at 2:33:31 AM UTC+11, Whoey Louie wrote:
On Tuesday, February 25, 2020 at 10:01:54 PM UTC-5, Bill Sloman wrote:
On Wednesday, February 26, 2020 at 12:44:10 PM UTC+11, Whoey Louie wrote:
On Tuesday, February 25, 2020 at 6:30:18 PM UTC-5, Rick C wrote:
On Tuesday, February 25, 2020 at 3:06:49 PM UTC-5, Whoey Louie wrote:
On Tuesday, February 25, 2020 at 10:09:39 AM UTC-5, Rick C wrote:
On Thursday, February 20, 2020 at 11:24:33 AM UTC-5, Rick C wrote:
On Tuesday, February 18, 2020 at 9:36:21 PM UTC-5, Rick C wrote:
On Sunday, February 16, 2020 at 9:24:03 AM UTC-5, Rick C wrote:

snip

And with many of these cases now, health investigators have no idea
how it got transmitted into the new cases.

They've got a pretty exact idea of how.

That's obviously BS, when you don't know who the source even was.


They don't know who from.

Bingo, you don't know from who, so you also don't know how, obviously.



In the past, they usually
could quickly identify the likely source.

When you have very few cases, contact tracing works.

Italy and most other countries still have relatively low numbers.
But regardless, once you can't track it to confine it, then it's
well on it's way to a pandemic.



When it's spreading and
you don't know how, it's a prescription for a pandemic.

It's necessary condition for a pandemic, but not a sufficient one.

Lock-down can demonstrably stop and local epidemic developing into a pandemic, as it has in China.

This is the sort of BS I am talking about. It doesn't matter how empty the streets are. That's because of measures to stop the spread.

The numbers for Italy I've seen put it behind S. Korea and the diamond princess cruise ship. Way behind S. Korea which has nearly 1,000 infected with Italy a third of that.

The issue is if the methods of stopping the spread that China is using will work elsewhere. We will find out.

The issue is the measures are not working, that's why it's in 41 countries and growing exponentially outside China.

China didn't get onto the infection fast enough to stop people taking it elsewhere. Most places got potentially infected people into some kind of isolation for a fortnight, so that if they did have the disease they didn't spread it. Italy and Iran and South Korea didn't do that effectively enough.

And the China numbers are suspect.

They aren't going to be 100% accurate, but they are more reliable than numbers dreamed up by some anxious idiot.

That would be you. You've claimed here many times that the death rate
is 20%.

I said that exactly once - the context was your claim that the virus could spread undetected, and the aim was to remind you that it killed enough people to make it quite noticeable - which is what is happening in Iran at the moment.

When you pushed me on it, I documented my reasoning and sources - which you've never done (probably because you are too dim to understand how, even with a worked example in front of you).

Since then I've referred people to

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/

Which is pure BS and shows that you don't even have the most
very basic of facts.

That's a lie. It wasn't a good estimate when I posted it, but it was based on defensible logic, and based on the facts that had been published at the time, which I immediately spelled out. You never reacted to that, and don't seem to have any grasp of the issues involved.

The actual death rate is around 2% and that has
been all over the freaking media for a month.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/

begs to differ. You are too stupid to realise that a bunch of under-informed commentators can be expected to make the same kind of stupid error. The better-informed bits of the media use longer words than you are comfortable with.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

When over a month into this, you just keep pontificating BS, claim that the
morbidity is 20%, when it's 2%, no point in discussing it further. Even
more annoying, when the 2% number is all over the freaking news, has been
for weeks, you keep insisting that I should show it to you. Have the
kangaroos broken Google down there again? Village idiot.

 

[Whoey Louie]

On Thursday, February 27, 2020 at 6:46:44 AM UTC-5, Tom Gardner wrote:

On 26/02/20 15:33, Whoey Louie wrote:
Google broken down under, stupid?

You clearly don't understand google:

1) google shows crap as well as gold
2) google gives different people different results for the same query

You make claims, you provide the references

If you think the morbidity from Covid is 20%, not around 2%, then you
shouldn't even be commenting, because like Bill, you're just clueless.
And no, I'm not going to show you references for what has been all over
the news and is very easy to find. Screw off.

 

[Rick C]

On Thursday, February 27, 2020 at 9:41:05 AM UTC-5, Whoey Louie wrote:

On Wednesday, February 26, 2020 at 3:44:05 PM UTC-5, Rick C wrote:
On Wednesday, February 26, 2020 at 1:01:42 PM UTC-5, Whoey Louie wrote:

It's spreading at an exponential rate outside China, while China's rate
has declined. The result is it's been about flat ~700 new cases per
day over the last week. But cases outside China are now half that and
growing. You don't see health authorities anywhere saying what you
are saying, that the rate of spread is decreasing, do you?

Your math is poor. Here are the latest global numbers for new infections by day since the last measurement change.

976
996
979
554
883
740



Nothing wrong with my math.

Of course there is...

It's spreading at an exponential rate outside China, while China's rate
has declined. The result is it's been about flat ~700 new cases per
day over the last week.

The overall result is not a flat 700 per day. That's your first mistake.

Exactly what I posted is true, it's growing
exponentially outside China, while China's numbers have declined. You
won't see that in the numbers you keep using, because that's the combined
numbers. Today the new case number is higher than ANY of your numbers
above, 1000, with 570 of those being from outside China. So now the
daily new cases outside China exceeds the new cases in China. Which
again is reason to be suspicious of the China numbers.

Why does that make China's numbers suspicious? China has taken drastic measures to prevent the spread of this disease. Other countries are still coming to grips with this.

The week before the numbers were above 2000 (prior to the a measurement change which was undone by the second change). So the numbers over the last 6 days are not stable around 700, they have declined to 700.

And today it's 1000. But heh, I'm alarmist.

Mostly from one country, S. Korea. Iran seems to be jumping up rapidly as well. I don't know if we will hear much of what Iran is doing to fight this disease.

I can't explain the dip three days ago. These numbers are large enough that I would not expect to see such an anomaly. Still, I see no indication of trouble in these numbers

That's because you're not looking at the numbers OUTSIDE China, in the
other 40+ countries. Those have been growing exponentially for over
a month. Now they have surpassed China's, that is if the China numbers
are true, which i doubt.

Ok, so China's numbers are lies in which case all is lost. Ok, thanks for sharing.


> and while it is still early, it does seem to indicate China has addressed their problem. It does show the draconian measures require to limit the disease.

I thought China was lying???

While the numbers outside of China seem to have problems, It is largely due to three countries.

It was one country, then two, then three, now it's 40+. Can you spell
pandemic?

I don't consider Switerland going from 1 case to 5 to be proof of exponential growth and certainly isn't a pandemic.

We will see if they manage to contain the virus. I'll try tracking the top few countries to see if they get the spread under control.

The CDC said yesterday that the spread within the US is inevitable.

Can you provide a quote? I didn't see that anywhere.

You reporting that China has locked down cities. When I said the
streets of Milan are empty, it looks like China, you called that alarmist.

Reporting facts is not alarmist. Offering that fact as proof of a raging disease that is out of control is not. They are taking measures to prevent this disease from spreading in their country.

But as I have said, it is still early days and we will see what happens outside of China as we monitor what is happening inside China.


We know what's happening outside China, it's rapidly spreading, exponentially
and has been for a month. We now have the first community spread case
in the US, someone near Sacremento has it and there is no known contact
that can explain how they were infected. One person on an airplane
can probably infect a dozen people.

So it is very good news then that yesterday there were zero new cases in the US of COVID-19.

--

Rick C.

-++ Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
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[Rick C]

On Thursday, February 27, 2020 at 9:56:03 AM UTC-5, Whoey Louie wrote:

On Thursday, February 27, 2020 at 6:46:44 AM UTC-5, Tom Gardner wrote:
On 26/02/20 15:33, Whoey Louie wrote:
Google broken down under, stupid?

You clearly don't understand google:

1) google shows crap as well as gold
2) google gives different people different results for the same query

You make claims, you provide the references

If you think the morbidity from Covid is 20%, not around 2%, then you
shouldn't even be commenting, because like Bill, you're just clueless.
And no, I'm not going to show you references for what has been all over
the news and is very easy to find. Screw off.

No one know the morbidity rate of this disease. We literally don't have the data. It's that simple.

--

Rick C.

+-+ Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
+-+ Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209