OT: more from the resident alarmist

[Rick C]

On Thursday, February 27, 2020 at 9:51:16 AM UTC-5, Whoey Louie wrote:

On Wednesday, February 26, 2020 at 3:54:47 PM UTC-5, Rick C wrote:
On Wednesday, February 26, 2020 at 1:52:56 PM UTC-5, Whoey Louie wrote:

Seems a govt that according to Rick is just taking people to quarantine
locations where they get no treatment is exactly the kind of govt that
would lie about the extent of that happening.

I don't see a connection. Let's say you are in charge of the situation in China. You have ultimate control over everything in the country. How would you treat all these people?


How about treating them?

Ok, so you are just going to play dumb and pretend there's no problem. Got it. The Trump approach.

What's better for
China's image? Concentration camps with just 500 a day going in and
ten a day dying? Or 5000 a day going in and 500 a day dying with
no treatment? China, like all commie govts, lies. So, what's the
upside for them in telling the truth? They can lie, make it look
better and who's going to rat them out? If they do, they will disappear
like all those people who made posts or took pictures. Or wind up
dead like the doctor that blew the whistle. And even if something
comes out showing some of the truth, China can just deny it all
anyway. Truth is no one knows the truth.

No, once you assume that everyone lies all the time it is hard to know what to believe. I try to weigh my sources and figure out which ones lie when and who/when I can trust.

No one is assuming everyone lies and judging the veracity of facts by
the source is exactly why we're suspicious of China.

Nothing wrong with being suspicious. Your rant above goes beyond "suspicious" talking about people being dragged away in the night.

I'm sure the numbers in China are distorted, but that's only because it is hard to know who has the disease and who doesn't.

And you know this how? China has a history of lying about disease spread
as well as a long, long list of other things. Have you not seen the people
who have been detained, disappeared, gone missing after they posted pictures
or blogged about what is happening?

Please provide links of these heinous acts?

I don't believe the Chinese government is intentionally lying.

You can choose to believe whatever you want to believe. It's typical that
libs love to believe commie govts.

Ok, so now it has become a political issue for you. That explains a lot.

I don't see any upside for them to lie. At this point they know they will be found out, just as a doctor who reported the new disease early on was forced tot recant...

He's dead now and some suspect he may have been put down. You don't see
any upside for lying?

I'm not going to continue to feed your delusions, but if they made him recant his early statement that the disease was in the wild, why didn't they bury the report of his death? That's when he made the national news, doctor dying of disease he blew the whistle on!

Then why did China do exactly that with previous
similar situations? What will be utlimately found out? This isn't a court
room. China controls their press, they can just stick to the official
lies and deny, deny, deny. Eventually it all blows over.

This is going to be a lot worse than SARS. This will shut down international trade for some time to come. The good news is that we will likely find ways to provide more safety in international travel.


> and this was found out. Now if they are found to be significantly lying about the contagion, many businesses would have a hard time coming back.

Again, you munged the attribution marks.

Businesses will be affected the same whether they lie or not. Lying
could help, would you be more likely to fly to a country on business
if they say the place is under control, it's dwindling or if you say
it's all over the place and spreading?

I would not fly to either and the airlines aren't going to take me there so it doesn't really matter.

And yesterday we had the first community spread case in the USA identified.
Very possible there are many more across the country, because we're
only looking for them in 5 major cities.

Yes, like many other countries we aren't looking so hard because we have no reason to suspect it is spread widely. I could very possibly be getting over COVID-19 myself. I seem to have the symptoms. While severe for a typical cold, they are short of what would put me in the hospital. So I may never know for sure. The coughing is bad enough that my rib cage is sore and throat is raw. I'm drinking overnight cold medicine like it's soda pop. Like China, I'm reporting I am on the mend however.

--

Rick C.

+-- Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
+-- Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

 

[whit3rd]

On Wednesday, February 26, 2020 at 5:53:16 PM UTC-8, Rick C wrote:

On Wednesday, February 26, 2020 at 8:35:17 PM UTC-5, whit3rd wrote:

Offer a stipend for recovered patients, to put on a nursing uniform and tend a ward
(under supervision via videoconferencing technology). At the end of tour-of-duty,
a decontaminant shower and permission to exit the hospital is granted.


So you are going to remove caregivers from the hospitals? Or are you going to use untrained people?

Yes, untrained (practical nurses) people can be effective. As for 'caregivers from the hospitals',
few can be supported if full hazard suits are required.

> I also don't see your showers working. Rather a full containment suit would be required.

I thought it was obvious, that someone who has recovered from the disease, is NOT a host,
but is extinguishing the virus by immune response. So, a shower is appropriate
and another quarantine afterward is not.

 

[Tom Gardner]

On 27/02/20 14:55, Whoey Louie wrote:

On Thursday, February 27, 2020 at 6:46:44 AM UTC-5, Tom Gardner wrote:
On 26/02/20 15:33, Whoey Louie wrote:
Google broken down under, stupid?

You clearly don't understand google:

1) google shows crap as well as gold
2) google gives different people different results for the same query

You make claims, you provide the references

If you think the morbidity from Covid is 20%, not around 2%, then you
shouldn't even be commenting, because like Bill, you're just clueless.
And no, I'm not going to show you references for what has been all over
the news and is very easy to find. Screw off.

That's zero relevance to how google works. You need to improve
your comprehension skills.

Please point to where I have made any statement about the
mortality.

We've noticed your strawman arguments.

 

[Rick C]

On Thursday, February 27, 2020 at 2:32:27 PM UTC-5, whit3rd wrote:

On Wednesday, February 26, 2020 at 5:53:16 PM UTC-8, Rick C wrote:
On Wednesday, February 26, 2020 at 8:35:17 PM UTC-5, whit3rd wrote:

Offer a stipend for recovered patients, to put on a nursing uniform and tend a ward
(under supervision via videoconferencing technology). At the end of tour-of-duty,
a decontaminant shower and permission to exit the hospital is granted..


So you are going to remove caregivers from the hospitals? Or are you going to use untrained people?

Yes, untrained (practical nurses) people can be effective. As for 'caregivers from the hospitals',
few can be supported if full hazard suits are required.

Ok, snap your fingers and find 5,000 more nurses than they have now. What will they do for the patients? There is no cure, there is only symptomatic relief.

I also don't see your showers working. Rather a full containment suit would be required.

I thought it was obvious, that someone who has recovered from the disease, is NOT a host,
but is extinguishing the virus by immune response. So, a shower is appropriate
and another quarantine afterward is not.

So you are going to find 5,000 practical nurses in the group of 30,000 who recovered? That still does not preclude the use of the full body suits. Unlike on TV, there is no decontamination shower that will remove all pathogens from a person. That's why they have the suits.

--

Rick C.

++- Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
++- Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

 

[Whoey Louie]

On Thursday, February 27, 2020 at 12:55:19 PM UTC-5, Rick C wrote:

On Thursday, February 27, 2020 at 9:51:16 AM UTC-5, Whoey Louie wrote:
On Wednesday, February 26, 2020 at 3:54:47 PM UTC-5, Rick C wrote:
On Wednesday, February 26, 2020 at 1:52:56 PM UTC-5, Whoey Louie wrote:

Seems a govt that according to Rick is just taking people to quarantine
locations where they get no treatment is exactly the kind of govt that
would lie about the extent of that happening.

I don't see a connection. Let's say you are in charge of the situation in China. You have ultimate control over everything in the country. How would you treat all these people?


How about treating them?

Ok, so you are just going to play dumb and pretend there's no problem. Got it. The Trump approach.

WTF? First you claim I'm "alarmist". Now you say what would I do if I
was China, instead of putting people into concentration camps and not
treating them, and I say, well treat them and you claim I'm pretending
there is no problem?

What's better for
China's image? Concentration camps with just 500 a day going in and
ten a day dying? Or 5000 a day going in and 500 a day dying with
no treatment? China, like all commie govts, lies. So, what's the
upside for them in telling the truth? They can lie, make it look
better and who's going to rat them out? If they do, they will disappear
like all those people who made posts or took pictures. Or wind up
dead like the doctor that blew the whistle. And even if something
comes out showing some of the truth, China can just deny it all
anyway. Truth is no one knows the truth.

No, once you assume that everyone lies all the time it is hard to know what to believe. I try to weigh my sources and figure out which ones lie when and who/when I can trust.

No one is assuming everyone lies and judging the veracity of facts by
the source is exactly why we're suspicious of China.

Nothing wrong with being suspicious. Your rant above goes beyond "suspicious" talking about people being dragged away in the night.

That's because they are. But like most libs, you deny the facts when
it comes to the commie regimes or you're too lazy to go look.

I'm sure the numbers in China are distorted, but that's only because it is hard to know who has the disease and who doesn't.

And you know this how? China has a history of lying about disease spread
as well as a long, long list of other things. Have you not seen the people
who have been detained, disappeared, gone missing after they posted pictures
or blogged about what is happening?

Please provide links of these heinous acts?

I'm not here to educate you on the history of China.

I don't believe the Chinese government is intentionally lying.

You can choose to believe whatever you want to believe. It's typical that
libs love to believe commie govts.

Ok, so now it has become a political issue for you. That explains a lot..

It does. Because the typical libs are what the commies call useful idiots.
Bernie is a good example.

I don't see any upside for them to lie. At this point they know they will be found out, just as a doctor who reported the new disease early on was forced tot recant...

He's dead now and some suspect he may have been put down. You don't see
any upside for lying?

I'm not going to continue to feed your delusions, but if they made him recant his early statement that the disease was in the wild, why didn't they bury the report of his death?

Maybe they tried and failed. Or they figured they have the perfect cover,
so use it. Who's going to object? Who wants to be the next one to
disappear? Since you're an expert on the commies, where is that student
who stood in front of the tanks at Tianamen Square?



> That's when he made the national news, doctor dying of disease he blew the whistle on!

BS, he was in the news together with others that had blogged, taken
pictures, reporters, all taken into custody and some never seen again.

Then why did China do exactly that with previous
similar situations? What will be utlimately found out? This isn't a court
room. China controls their press, they can just stick to the official
lies and deny, deny, deny. Eventually it all blows over.

This is going to be a lot worse than SARS. This will shut down international trade for some time to come. The good news is that we will likely find ways to provide more safety in international travel.

Sure, I see that coming.

and this was found out. Now if they are found to be significantly lying about the contagion, many businesses would have a hard time coming back.

Again, you munged the attribution marks.


Businesses will be affected the same whether they lie or not. Lying
could help, would you be more likely to fly to a country on business
if they say the place is under control, it's dwindling or if you say
it's all over the place and spreading?

I would not fly to either and the airlines aren't going to take me there so it doesn't really matter.


And yesterday we had the first community spread case in the USA identified.
Very possible there are many more across the country, because we're
only looking for them in 5 major cities.

Yes, like many other countries we aren't looking so hard because we have no reason to suspect it is spread widely.

If you only start looking when it's spread widely, then it's obviously too late.


I could very possibly be getting over COVID-19 myself. I seem to have the symptoms. While severe for a typical cold, they are short of what would put me in the hospital. So I may never know for sure. The coughing is bad enough that my rib cage is sore and throat is raw. I'm drinking overnight cold medicine like it's soda pop. Like China, I'm reporting I am on the mend however.
>

And about ten days ago, the CDC announced they were going to start testing
people with Covid symptoms, who test negative for flu, for Covid.
That was just going to be done in 5 major cities. But it's still not
happening because the test kits are no good. And meanwhile, the Sacramento
case, the guy is so bad he's intubated and the CDC refused to run the test.
Only after the hospital insisting, did they finally do the test, 4 days
later. So, how many other people could be out there undetected.
You can't find it when you aren't looking.

--

Rick C.

+-- Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
+-- Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

 

[Whoey Louie]

On Thursday, February 27, 2020 at 12:34:00 PM UTC-5, Rick C wrote:

On Thursday, February 27, 2020 at 9:41:05 AM UTC-5, Whoey Louie wrote:
On Wednesday, February 26, 2020 at 3:44:05 PM UTC-5, Rick C wrote:
On Wednesday, February 26, 2020 at 1:01:42 PM UTC-5, Whoey Louie wrote:

It's spreading at an exponential rate outside China, while China's rate
has declined. The result is it's been about flat ~700 new cases per
day over the last week. But cases outside China are now half that and
growing. You don't see health authorities anywhere saying what you
are saying, that the rate of spread is decreasing, do you?

Your math is poor. Here are the latest global numbers for new infections by day since the last measurement change.

976
996
979
554
883
740



Nothing wrong with my math.

Of course there is...

It's spreading at an exponential rate outside China, while China's rate
has declined. The result is it's been about flat ~700 new cases per
day over the last week.

The overall result is not a flat 700 per day. That's your first mistake.

BS. The total cases worldwide has been flat, averaging ~700 per day.

Exactly what I posted is true, it's growing
exponentially outside China, while China's numbers have declined. You
won't see that in the numbers you keep using, because that's the combined
numbers. Today the new case number is higher than ANY of your numbers
above, 1000, with 570 of those being from outside China. So now the
daily new cases outside China exceeds the new cases in China. Which
again is reason to be suspicious of the China numbers.

Why does that make China's numbers suspicious?

Because China is chock full of it, they have changed how they count cases
several times now, and China is known for LYING about outbreaks and
plenty else. Got it now?



China has taken drastic measures to prevent the spread of this disease. Other countries are still coming to grips with this.

The week before the numbers were above 2000 (prior to the a measurement change which was undone by the second change). So the numbers over the last 6 days are not stable around 700, they have declined to 700.

And today it's 1000. But heh, I'm alarmist.

Mostly from one country, S. Korea. Iran seems to be jumping up rapidly as well. I don't know if we will hear much of what Iran is doing to fight this disease.

One day there is a big jump in Italy, another it's Iran, another
it;s South Korea. Two months ago it wasn't in any of those countries.
And meanwhile almost nothing from Africa, which doesn't have the means,
resources, to even find it.

I can't explain the dip three days ago. These numbers are large enough that I would not expect to see such an anomaly. Still, I see no indication of trouble in these numbers

That's because you're not looking at the numbers OUTSIDE China, in the
other 40+ countries. Those have been growing exponentially for over
a month. Now they have surpassed China's, that is if the China numbers
are true, which i doubt.

Ok, so China's numbers are lies in which case all is lost. Ok, thanks for sharing.

Again, it's not China's numbers that are alarming, it's that it's growing
exponentially OUTSIDE China.

and while it is still early, it does seem to indicate China has addressed their problem. It does show the draconian measures require to limit the disease.

I thought China was lying???

Again, you're confused. I didn't post the above, follow the thread.

While the numbers outside of China seem to have problems, It is largely due to three countries.

It was one country, then two, then three, now it's 40+. Can you spell
pandemic?

I don't consider Switerland going from 1 case to 5 to be proof of exponential growth and certainly isn't a pandemic.

ROFL

Look at Iran, Italy, South Korea, Singapore. Or just look at the freaking
exponential curve that;s been going on for over a month. Geez.

We will see if they manage to contain the virus. I'll try tracking the top few countries to see if they get the spread under control.

The CDC said yesterday that the spread within the US is inevitable.

Can you provide a quote? I didn't see that anywhere.

Google broken for you too?

You reporting that China has locked down cities. When I said the
streets of Milan are empty, it looks like China, you called that alarmist.

Reporting facts is not alarmist. Offering that fact as proof of a raging disease that is out of control is not. They are taking measures to prevent this disease from spreading in their country.

But as I have said, it is still early days and we will see what happens outside of China as we monitor what is happening inside China.


We know what's happening outside China, it's rapidly spreading, exponentially
and has been for a month. We now have the first community spread case
in the US, someone near Sacremento has it and there is no known contact
that can explain how they were infected. One person on an airplane
can probably infect a dozen people.

So it is very good news then that yesterday there were zero new cases in the US of COVID-19.

That's wrong, I just pointed out the new case that appears to be community
based spread.

Oh and while Trump is saying everything is under control, let's look at
that one case, outside Sacramento. The patient was initially hospitalized
then transfered to a second hospital on Wed. By that time the patient
was intubated. That hospital immediately requested that the CDC run
a test for Covid. CDC refused because the patient didn't meet the criteria.
So, you have a patient so bad that they have been in two hospitals, have
all the symptoms, are so bad they are intubated, and the CDC won't even test
because the patient had no known contact, had not been out of the country, etc
Finally on Sunday the CDC did the test and found out the patient is infected.
And there is no known contact to explain it. So, when we're not testing,
how the hell are we going to find it and how many more cases like this are
there already?

--

Rick C.

-++ Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
-++ Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

 

[Michael Terrell]

On Thursday, February 27, 2020 at 9:56:03 AM UTC-5, Whoey Louie wrote:

On Thursday, February 27, 2020 at 6:46:44 AM UTC-5, Tom Gardner wrote:
On 26/02/20 15:33, Whoey Louie wrote:
Google broken down under, stupid?

You clearly don't understand google:

1) google shows crap as well as gold
2) google gives different people different results for the same query

You make claims, you provide the references

If you think the morbidity from Covid is 20%, not around 2%, then you
shouldn't even be commenting, because like Bill, you're just clueless.
And no, I'm not going to show you references for what has been all over
the news and is very easy to find. Screw off.

He's as spaced out as Joe Biden and his claim that 150,000,000 Americans have died from gunshots since 2007. Can't the Democrats find even one candidate that isn't brain dead or a liar?

 

[Bill Sloman]

On Friday, February 28, 2020 at 1:51:16 AM UTC+11, Whoey Louie wrote:

On Wednesday, February 26, 2020 at 3:54:47 PM UTC-5, Rick C wrote:
On Wednesday, February 26, 2020 at 1:52:56 PM UTC-5, Whoey Louie wrote:
On Wednesday, February 26, 2020 at 1:38:21 PM UTC-5, edward...@gmail.com wrote:
On Wednesday, February 26, 2020 at 9:46:02 AM UTC-8, Rick C wrote:
On Tuesday, February 25, 2020 at 9:42:42 PM UTC-5, Bill Sloman wrote:
On Wednesday, February 26, 2020 at 12:15:43 PM UTC+11, edward....@gmail.com wrote:
On Tuesday, February 25, 2020 at 3:33:00 PM UTC-8, Rick C wrote:
On Tuesday, February 25, 2020 at 4:03:23 PM UTC-5, edward....@gmail.com wrote:
On Tuesday, February 25, 2020 at 12:06:49 PM UTC-8, Whoey Louie wrote:
On Tuesday, February 25, 2020 at 10:09:39 AM UTC-5, Rick C wrote:
On Thursday, February 20, 2020 at 11:24:33 AM UTC-5, Rick C wrote:
On Tuesday, February 18, 2020 at 9:36:21 PM UTC-5, Rick C wrote:
On Sunday, February 16, 2020 at 9:24:03 AM UTC-5, Rick C wrote:

<snip>

Seems a govt that according to Rick is just taking people to quarantine
locations where they get no treatment is exactly the kind of govt that
would lie about the extent of that happening.

I don't see a connection. Let's say you are in charge of the situation in China. You have ultimate control over everything in the country. How would you treat all these people?

How about treating them?

There's - as yet - nothing you can do to help a patient who has the virus in getting rid of it.

If they've got it bad enough to have viral pneumonia, you can do stuff to help them stay alive until their immune system can on top of the virus - pure oxygen can help.

There's no point in treating mild cases, beyond stopping them infecting other people, and keeping an eye on them in case they get worse.

<snip>

No one is assuming everyone lies and judging the veracity of facts by
the source is exactly why we're suspicious of China.

But your judgement is obviously defective.

I'm sure the numbers in China are distorted, but that's only because it is hard to know who has the disease and who doesn't.

And you know this how? China has a history of lying about disease spread
as well as a long, long list of other things. Have you not seen the people
who have been detained, disappeared, gone missing after they posted pictures
or blogged about what is happening?

Alarmist bloggers "see" a lot more of this than more rational observers.

I don't believe the Chinese government is intentionally lying.

You can choose to believe whatever you want to believe. It's typical that
libs love to believe commie govts.

Only when looked at through the blinkers imposed by right-wing delusions.

I don't see any upside for them to lie. At this point they know they will be found out, just as a doctor who reported the new disease early on was forced tot recant...

He's dead now and some suspect he may have been put down.

With absolutely no evidence to support that bizarre proposition.

You don't see any upside for lying? Then why did China do exactly that with
previous similar situations?

Name one.

What will be utlimately found out? This isn't a court
room. China controls their press, they can just stick to the official
lies and deny, deny, deny. Eventually it all blows over.

Except that they currently manufacture most of the consumer goods sold in the rest of the world. The supply chain from China has stopped delivering, and the Chinese need the kind of explanation that will excuse this - and make it look as if it can start up again fast enough to discourage other countries from investing heavily to fill the gap.

and this was found out. Now if they are found to be significantly lying about the contagion, many businesses would have a hard time coming back.

Businesses will be affected the same whether they lie or not. Lying
could help, would you be more likely to fly to a country on business
if they say the place is under control, it's dwindling or if you say
it's all over the place and spreading?

If you suspect that the factories aren't going to be able to deliver for months, you aren't going to bother contacting them at all.

And yesterday we had the first community spread case in the USA identified.
Very possible there are many more across the country, because we're
only looking for them in 5 major cities.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

 

[Bill Sloman]

On Friday, February 28, 2020 at 1:41:05 AM UTC+11, Whoey Louie wrote:

On Wednesday, February 26, 2020 at 3:44:05 PM UTC-5, Rick C wrote:
On Wednesday, February 26, 2020 at 1:01:42 PM UTC-5, Whoey Louie wrote:
On Wednesday, February 26, 2020 at 12:35:48 PM UTC-5, Rick C wrote:
On Tuesday, February 25, 2020 at 8:50:47 PM UTC-5, Whoey Louie wrote:
On Tuesday, February 25, 2020 at 6:33:00 PM UTC-5, Rick C wrote:
On Tuesday, February 25, 2020 at 4:03:23 PM UTC-5, edward...@gmail.com wrote:
On Tuesday, February 25, 2020 at 12:06:49 PM UTC-8, Whoey Louie wrote:
On Tuesday, February 25, 2020 at 10:09:39 AM UTC-5, Rick C wrote:
On Thursday, February 20, 2020 at 11:24:33 AM UTC-5, Rick C wrote:
On Tuesday, February 18, 2020 at 9:36:21 PM UTC-5, Rick C wrote:
On Sunday, February 16, 2020 at 9:24:03 AM UTC-5, Rick C wrote:

Nothing wrong with my math. Exactly what I posted is true, it's growing
exponentially outside China, while China's numbers have declined. You
won't see that in the numbers you keep using, because that's the combined
numbers.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

One has to wonder where Whoey Louie gets his numbers (granting that he never posts links to his sources.

Today the new case number is higher than ANY of your numbers
above, 1000, with 570 of those being from outside China. So now the
daily new cases outside China exceeds the new cases in China. Which
again is reason to be suspicious of the China numbers.

South Korea - on its own - has reported 761 new cases. Whoey Louie doesn't seem to have access to up-to-date information. China reported 337 new cases, which is perfectly consistent with their recent trend.

Whoey Louie is a half-wit, and can't seeany reason why there should be a difference between a country which has kept the infected areas in lock-down for a couple of weeks now, and a country which has just got around to imposing lock-downs.

The week before the numbers were above 2000 (prior to the a measurement change which was undone by the second change). So the numbers over the last 6 days are not stable around 700, they have declined to 700.

And today it's 1000. But heh, I'm alarmist.

Actually a bit over 1500. But not so much an alarmist as an idiot.

I can't explain the dip three days ago. These numbers are large enough that I would not expect to see such an anomaly. Still, I see no indication of trouble in these numbers

That's because you're not looking at the numbers OUTSIDE China, in the
other 40+ countries. Those have been growing exponentially for over
a month. Now they have surpassed China's, that is if the China numbers
are true, which I doubt.

Whoey Louie is dubious about quite the wrong numbers.

The US hasn't reported any new infections. So far it has only tested 426 people and only three of the 100 public health laboratories have working testing kits.

Someone in California has tested positive without having contact with anybody who is known to be infected, so it may be that Trump's defunding of the US pandemic defenses are going to cost him - and the country dearly.

He's in the age group that is most likely to end dead in consequence, but so too is Bernie Sanders.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/02/26/trump-faces-chernobyl-moment-slashing-pandemic-defences-bone/

and while it is still early, it does seem to indicate China has addressed their problem. It does show the draconian measures require to limit the disease.

While the numbers outside of China seem to have problems, It is largely due to three countries.

It was one country, then two, then three, now it's 40+. Can you spell
pandemic?

Too early to say. It certainly isn't looking good.

We will see if they manage to contain the virus. I'll try tracking the top few countries to see if they get the spread under control.

The CDC said yesterday that the spread within the US is inevitable.

When only 3 of the 100 public health laboratories have working Covid-19 testing kits, the country does look vulnerable.

This is not a disease that will go way by getting it heading in the right direction and then giving up.

Why are you giving up then?

I didn't post that. I didn't see anyone saying to give up either.

It was in your post, but without proper attribution. So it looked like you said it.

https://groups.google.com/d/msg/sci.electronics.design/NmFIcGLkNkM/EjkVYPONAwAJ

Doesn't point to anything useful.

<snip>

We know what's happening outside China, it's rapidly spreading, exponentially
and has been for a month.

South Korea now has almost 2000 active cases, 24 recovered cases and 13 deaths.

If R0 is three - as it seems to be until you lock down the affected area - that is three generations of infections or about three weeks worth of propagation, not a month. Since South Korea had a problem with a religious sect that didn't isolate infected cases, R0 may well have been higher, and the propagation time correspondingly shorter.

We now have the first community spread case
in the US, someone near Sacremento has it and there is no known contact
that can explain how they were infected. One person on an airplane
can probably infect a dozen people.

For "probably" read "perhaps". It does only takes one, and a bit of bad luck.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

 

[Bill Sloman]

On Friday, February 28, 2020 at 7:47:01 AM UTC+11, Whoey Louie wrote:

On Thursday, February 27, 2020 at 12:34:00 PM UTC-5, Rick C wrote:
On Thursday, February 27, 2020 at 9:41:05 AM UTC-5, Whoey Louie wrote:
On Wednesday, February 26, 2020 at 3:44:05 PM UTC-5, Rick C wrote:
On Wednesday, February 26, 2020 at 1:01:42 PM UTC-5, Whoey Louie wrote:

It's spreading at an exponential rate outside China, while China's rate
has declined. The result is it's been about flat ~700 new cases per
day over the last week. But cases outside China are now half that and
growing. You don't see health authorities anywhere saying what you
are saying, that the rate of spread is decreasing, do you?

Your math is poor. Here are the latest global numbers for new infections by day since the last measurement change.

976
996
979
554
883
740



Nothing wrong with my math.

Of course there is...

It's spreading at an exponential rate outside China, while China's rate
has declined. The result is it's been about flat ~700 new cases per
day over the last week.

The overall result is not a flat 700 per day. That's your first mistake.

BS. The total cases worldwide has been flat, averaging ~700 per day.

It wasn't today.

Exactly what I posted is true, it's growing
exponentially outside China, while China's numbers have declined. You
won't see that in the numbers you keep using, because that's the combined
numbers. Today the new case number is higher than ANY of your numbers
above, 1000, with 570 of those being from outside China. So now the
daily new cases outside China exceeds the new cases in China. Which
again is reason to be suspicious of the China numbers.

Why does that make China's numbers suspicious?

Because China is chock full of it, they have changed how they count cases
several times now, and China is known for LYING about outbreaks and
plenty else. Got it now?

They've changed their numbers once - to include people in Hubei Province who hadn't actually tested positive for the virus but who had had contact with somebody who had and who met the clinical criteria. That brought Hubei Province into line with the rest of the country.

They may have lied in the past, but stakes were lower and probability of getting caught out correspondingly less.

Nobody is claiming that their data is perfect, but it's a lot more reliable than the imaginary numbers that half-wits like you chose to believe.

China has taken drastic measures to prevent the spread of this disease. Other countries are still coming to grips with this.


The week before the numbers were above 2000 (prior to the a measurement change which was undone by the second change). So the numbers over the last 6 days are not stable around 700, they have declined to 700.

And today it's 1000. But heh, I'm alarmist.

Mostly from one country, S. Korea. Iran seems to be jumping up rapidly as well. I don't know if we will hear much of what Iran is doing to fight this disease.

One day there is a big jump in Italy, another it's Iran, another
it's South Korea. Two months ago it wasn't in any of those countries.
And meanwhile almost nothing from Africa, which doesn't have the means,
resources, to even find it.

As I seem to have pointed out before, it isn't technically demanding to notice when people start dying of a new and unfamiliar form of pneumonia.

That's what prompted Iran to realise that they had Corvid-19 infections.

I can't explain the dip three days ago. These numbers are large enough that I would not expect to see such an anomaly. Still, I see no indication of trouble in these numbers

That's because you're not looking at the numbers OUTSIDE China, in the
other 40+ countries. Those have been growing exponentially for over
a month. Now they have surpassed China's, that is if the China numbers
are true, which i doubt.

Ok, so China's numbers are lies in which case all is lost. Ok, thanks for sharing.

Again, it's not China's numbers that are alarming, it's that it's growing
exponentially OUTSIDE China.

In three places outside China. The numbers are going to grow exponentially only as long as the disease isn't recognised. As soon as it is, the affected areas are going to be locked down. For very small numbers of infections, contact tracing works and you only have to quarantine the people who might have got infected.

and while it is still early, it does seem to indicate China has addressed their problem. It does show the draconian measures require to limit the disease.

I thought China was lying???

Again, you're confused. I didn't post the above, follow the thread.

While the numbers outside of China seem to have problems, It is largely due to three countries.

It was one country, then two, then three, now it's 40+. Can you spell
pandemic?

I don't consider Switzerland going from 1 case to 5 to be proof of exponential growth and certainly isn't a pandemic.

ROFL

Look at Iran, Italy, South Korea, Singapore. Or just look at the freaking
exponential curve that's been going on for over a month. Geez.

It stopped looking exponential when the Chinese lock-downs started working.

It's now going up again as other countries realise that they should have taken their initial samll numbers more seriously.

Treating whole world numbers as if they represent a single process is mathematically incompetent, but that's our Whoey Louie.

We will see if they manage to contain the virus. I'll try tracking the top few countries to see if they get the spread under control.

The CDC said yesterday that the spread within the US is inevitable.

Can you provide a quote? I didn't see that anywhere.

Google broken for you too?

https://nypost.com/2020/02/27/cdc-director-downplays-claim-that-coronavirus-spread-is-inevitable/

You reporting that China has locked down cities. When I said the
streets of Milan are empty, it looks like China, you called that alarmist.

Reporting facts is not alarmist. Offering that fact as proof of a raging disease that is out of control is not. They are taking measures to prevent this disease from spreading in their country.

But as I have said, it is still early days and we will see what happens outside of China as we monitor what is happening inside China.


We know what's happening outside China, it's rapidly spreading, exponentially and has been for a month. We now have the first community spread case in the US, someone near Sacremento has it and there is no known contact
that can explain how they were infected. One person on an airplane can probably infect a dozen people.

So it is very good news then that yesterday there were zero new cases in the US of COVID-19.

That's wrong, I just pointed out the new case that appears to be community
based spread.

Oh and while Trump is saying everything is under control, let's look at
that one case, outside Sacramento. The patient was initially hospitalized
then transfered to a second hospital on Wed. By that time the patient
was intubated. That hospital immediately requested that the CDC run
a test for Covid. CDC refused because the patient didn't meet the criteria.
So, you have a patient so bad that they have been in two hospitals, have
all the symptoms, are so bad they are intubated, and the CDC won't even test
because the patient had no known contact, had not been out of the country, etc
Finally on Sunday the CDC did the test and found out the patient is infected.
And there is no known contact to explain it. So, when we're not testing,
how the hell are we going to find it and how many more cases like this are
there already?

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/02/26/trump-faces-chernobyl-moment-slashing-pandemic-defences-bone/

When only three of the 100 US public health labs have working test kits, you aren't going to find many new cases until they get them.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

 

[Bill Sloman]

On Friday, February 28, 2020 at 1:53:34 AM UTC+11, Whoey Louie wrote:

On Wednesday, February 26, 2020 at 8:26:28 PM UTC-5, Bill Sloman wrote:
On Thursday, February 27, 2020 at 2:33:31 AM UTC+11, Whoey Louie wrote:
On Tuesday, February 25, 2020 at 10:01:54 PM UTC-5, Bill Sloman wrote:
On Wednesday, February 26, 2020 at 12:44:10 PM UTC+11, Whoey Louie wrote:
On Tuesday, February 25, 2020 at 6:30:18 PM UTC-5, Rick C wrote:
On Tuesday, February 25, 2020 at 3:06:49 PM UTC-5, Whoey Louie wrote:
On Tuesday, February 25, 2020 at 10:09:39 AM UTC-5, Rick C wrote:
On Thursday, February 20, 2020 at 11:24:33 AM UTC-5, Rick C wrote:
On Tuesday, February 18, 2020 at 9:36:21 PM UTC-5, Rick C wrote:
On Sunday, February 16, 2020 at 9:24:03 AM UTC-5, Rick C wrote:

<snip>

That would be you. You've claimed here many times that the death rate
is 20%.

I said that exactly once - the context was your claim that the virus could spread undetected, and the aim was to remind you that it killed enough people to make it quite noticeable - which is what is happening in Iran at the moment.

When you pushed me on it, I documented my reasoning and sources - which you've never done (probably because you are too dim to understand how, even with a worked example in front of you).

Since then I've referred people to

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/

Which is pure BS and shows that you don't even have the most
very basic of facts.

That's a lie. It wasn't a good estimate when I posted it, but it was based on defensible logic, and based on the facts that had been published at the time, which I immediately spelled out. You never reacted to that, and don't seem to have any grasp of the issues involved.

The actual death rate is around 2% and that has
been all over the freaking media for a month.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/

begs to differ. You are too stupid to realise that a bunch of under-informed commentators can be expected to make the same kind of stupid error. The better-informed bits of the media use longer words than you are comfortable with.

When over a month into this, you just keep pontificating BS, claim that the
morbidity is 20%,

As I pointed out above, that's a lie.

> when it's 2%, no point in discussing it further.

None that appeals to you. You like your lie and think that sticking to it earns you brownie points, when in fact it merely confirms that you are half-wit.

Even more annoying, when the 2% number is all over the freaking news, has been
for weeks, you keep insisting that I should show it to you.

It represents a popular mistake, as is spelled out on

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/

The fact that quite a few commentators fall into it doesn't make it right.

> Have the kangaroos broken Google down there again? Village idiot.

The idiocy is all yours.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

 

[Rick C]

On Thursday, February 27, 2020 at 10:17:58 PM UTC-5, Bill Sloman wrote:

On Friday, February 28, 2020 at 7:47:01 AM UTC+11, Whoey Louie wrote:
On Thursday, February 27, 2020 at 12:34:00 PM UTC-5, Rick C wrote:

The overall result is not a flat 700 per day. That's your first mistake.

BS. The total cases worldwide has been flat, averaging ~700 per day.

It wasn't today.

Why does that make China's numbers suspicious?

Because China is chock full of it, they have changed how they count cases
several times now, and China is known for LYING about outbreaks and
plenty else. Got it now?

They've changed their numbers once - to include people in Hubei Province who hadn't actually tested positive for the virus but who had had contact with somebody who had and who met the clinical criteria. That brought Hubei Province into line with the rest of the country.

My understanding is they changed reporting in the Hubei province as you indicate, to be *different* from the rest of the country on Feb 12. Then on Feb 19 changed it back to match the rest of the country. It explains the anomalous counts on those days.

Feb 17 73332 2003
Feb 18 75198 1866
Feb 19 75700 502

They may have lied in the past, but stakes were lower and probability of getting caught out correspondingly less.

Nobody is claiming that their data is perfect, but it's a lot more reliable than the imaginary numbers that half-wits like you chose to believe.



China has taken drastic measures to prevent the spread of this disease. Other countries are still coming to grips with this.

Mostly from one country, S. Korea. Iran seems to be jumping up rapidly as well. I don't know if we will hear much of what Iran is doing to fight this disease.

One day there is a big jump in Italy, another it's Iran, another
it's South Korea. Two months ago it wasn't in any of those countries.
And meanwhile almost nothing from Africa, which doesn't have the means,
resources, to even find it.

As I seem to have pointed out before, it isn't technically demanding to notice when people start dying of a new and unfamiliar form of pneumonia.

That's what prompted Iran to realise that they had Corvid-19 infections.

Ok, so China's numbers are lies in which case all is lost. Ok, thanks for sharing.

Again, it's not China's numbers that are alarming, it's that it's growing
exponentially OUTSIDE China.

In three places outside China. The numbers are going to grow exponentially only as long as the disease isn't recognised. As soon as it is, the affected areas are going to be locked down. For very small numbers of infections, contact tracing works and you only have to quarantine the people who might have got infected.

I don't consider Switzerland going from 1 case to 5 to be proof of exponential growth and certainly isn't a pandemic.

ROFL

Look at Iran, Italy, South Korea, Singapore. Or just look at the freaking
exponential curve that's been going on for over a month. Geez.

It stopped looking exponential when the Chinese lock-downs started working.

It's now going up again as other countries realise that they should have taken their initial samll numbers more seriously.

Treating whole world numbers as if they represent a single process is mathematically incompetent, but that's our Whoey Louie.

Can you provide a quote? I didn't see that anywhere.

Google broken for you too?

https://nypost.com/2020/02/27/cdc-director-downplays-claim-that-coronavirus-spread-is-inevitable/

So it is very good news then that yesterday there were zero new cases in the US of COVID-19.

That's wrong, I just pointed out the new case that appears to be community
based spread.

No, you are wrong. Go read about your "new case" again. That person was already counted.

Oh and while Trump is saying everything is under control, let's look at
that one case, outside Sacramento. The patient was initially hospitalized
then transfered to a second hospital on Wed. By that time the patient
was intubated. That hospital immediately requested that the CDC run
a test for Covid. CDC refused because the patient didn't meet the criteria.
So, you have a patient so bad that they have been in two hospitals, have
all the symptoms, are so bad they are intubated, and the CDC won't even test
because the patient had no known contact, had not been out of the country, etc
Finally on Sunday the CDC did the test and found out the patient is infected.
And there is no known contact to explain it. So, when we're not testing,
how the hell are we going to find it and how many more cases like this are
there already?

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/02/26/trump-faces-chernobyl-moment-slashing-pandemic-defences-bone/

When only three of the 100 US public health labs have working test kits, you aren't going to find many new cases until they get them.

Makes you wonder if we are actually trying to stop this disease.

--

Rick C.

+++ Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
+++ Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

 

[Bill Sloman]

On Friday, February 28, 2020 at 3:07:14 PM UTC+11, Rick C wrote:

On Thursday, February 27, 2020 at 10:17:58 PM UTC-5, Bill Sloman wrote:
On Friday, February 28, 2020 at 7:47:01 AM UTC+11, Whoey Louie wrote:
On Thursday, February 27, 2020 at 12:34:00 PM UTC-5, Rick C wrote:

<snip>

It stopped looking exponential when the Chinese lock-downs started working.

It's now going up again as other countries realise that they should have taken their initial small numbers more seriously.

Treating whole world numbers as if they represent a single process is mathematically incompetent, but that's our Whoey Louie.

Can you provide a quote? I didn't see that anywhere.

Google broken for you too?

https://nypost.com/2020/02/27/cdc-director-downplays-claim-that-coronavirus-spread-is-inevitable/

So it is very good news then that yesterday there were zero new cases in the US of COVID-19.

That's wrong, I just pointed out the new case that appears to be community
based spread.

No, you are wrong. Go read about your "new case" again. That person was already counted.

Oh and while Trump is saying everything is under control, let's look at that one case, outside Sacramento. The patient was initially hospitalized

then transfered to a second hospital on Wed. By that time the patient
was intubated. That hospital immediately requested that the CDC run
a test for Covid. CDC refused because the patient didn't meet the criteria.

So, you have a patient so bad that they have been in two hospitals, have all the symptoms, are so bad they are intubated, and the CDC won't even test because the patient had no known contact, had not been out of the country, etc
Finally on Sunday the CDC did the test and found out the patient is infected. And there is no known contact to explain it. So, when we're not testing, how the hell are we going to find it and how many more cases like this are there already?

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/02/26/trump-faces-chernobyl-moment-slashing-pandemic-defences-bone/

When only three of the 100 US public health labs have working test kits, you aren't going to find many new cases until they get them.

Makes you wonder if we are actually trying to stop this disease.

The main thrust of the Telegraph article was that Trump had earlier defunded the organisations set up to detect incipient pandemics and organise a response.

If you've dismantled most of the organisation designed to do the job, your efforts to get going on it are going to be slower than they might have been, and should have been.

With any luck, that will make Trump even more unelectable than he already is.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

 

[Bill Sloman]

On Friday, February 28, 2020 at 3:07:14 PM UTC+11, Rick C wrote:

On Thursday, February 27, 2020 at 10:17:58 PM UTC-5, Bill Sloman wrote:
On Friday, February 28, 2020 at 7:47:01 AM UTC+11, Whoey Louie wrote:
On Thursday, February 27, 2020 at 12:34:00 PM UTC-5, Rick C wrote:

The overall result is not a flat 700 per day. That's your first mistake.

BS. The total cases worldwide has been flat, averaging ~700 per day.

It wasn't today.

Why does that make China's numbers suspicious?

Because China is chock full of it, they have changed how they count cases
several times now, and China is known for LYING about outbreaks and
plenty else. Got it now?

They've changed their numbers once - to include people in Hubei Province who hadn't actually tested positive for the virus but who had had contact with somebody who had and who met the clinical criteria. That brought Hubei Province into line with the rest of the country.

My understanding is they changed reporting in the Hubei province as you indicate, to be *different* from the rest of the country on Feb 12. Then on Feb 19 changed it back to match the rest of the country. It explains the anomalous counts on those days.

Feb 17 73332 2003
Feb 18 75198 1866
Feb 19 75700 502


They may have lied in the past, but stakes were lower and probability of getting caught out correspondingly less.

Nobody is claiming that their data is perfect, but it's a lot more reliable than the imaginary numbers that half-wits like you chose to believe.



China has taken drastic measures to prevent the spread of this disease. Other countries are still coming to grips with this.

Mostly from one country, S. Korea. Iran seems to be jumping up rapidly as well. I don't know if we will hear much of what Iran is doing to fight this disease.

One day there is a big jump in Italy, another it's Iran, another
it's South Korea. Two months ago it wasn't in any of those countries..
And meanwhile almost nothing from Africa, which doesn't have the means,
resources, to even find it.

As I seem to have pointed out before, it isn't technically demanding to notice when people start dying of a new and unfamiliar form of pneumonia.

That's what prompted Iran to realise that they had Corvid-19 infections..

Ok, so China's numbers are lies in which case all is lost. Ok, thanks for sharing.

Again, it's not China's numbers that are alarming, it's that it's growing
exponentially OUTSIDE China.

In three places outside China. The numbers are going to grow exponentially only as long as the disease isn't recognised. As soon as it is, the affected areas are going to be locked down. For very small numbers of infections, contact tracing works and you only have to quarantine the people who might have got infected.

I don't consider Switzerland going from 1 case to 5 to be proof of exponential growth and certainly isn't a pandemic.

ROFL

Look at Iran, Italy, South Korea, Singapore. Or just look at the freaking
exponential curve that's been going on for over a month. Geez.

It stopped looking exponential when the Chinese lock-downs started working.

It's now going up again as other countries realise that they should have taken their initial samll numbers more seriously.

Treating whole world numbers as if they represent a single process is mathematically incompetent, but that's our Whoey Louie.

Can you provide a quote? I didn't see that anywhere.

Google broken for you too?

https://nypost.com/2020/02/27/cdc-director-downplays-claim-that-coronavirus-spread-is-inevitable/

So it is very good news then that yesterday there were zero new cases in the US of COVID-19.

That's wrong, I just pointed out the new case that appears to be community
based spread.

No, you are wrong. Go read about your "new case" again. That person was already counted.

Oh and while Trump is saying everything is under control, let's look at that one case, outside Sacramento. The patient was initially hospitalized

then transfered to a second hospital on Wed. By that time the patient
was intubated. That hospital immediately requested that the CDC run
a test for Covid. CDC refused because the patient didn't meet the criteria..

So, you have a patient so bad that they have been in two hospitals, have all the symptoms, are so bad they are intubated, and the CDC won't even test because the patient had no known contact, had not been out of the country, etc
Finally on Sunday the CDC did the test and found out the patient is infected. And there is no known contact to explain it. So, when we're not testing, how the hell are we going to find it and how many more cases like this are there already?

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/02/26/trump-faces-chernobyl-moment-slashing-pandemic-defences-bone/

When only three of the 100 US public health labs have working test kits, you aren't going to find many new cases until they get them.

Makes you wonder if we are actually trying to stop this disease.

The main thrust of the Telegraph article was that Trump had earlier defunded the organisations set up to detect incipient pandemics and organise a response.

If you've dismantled most of the organisation designed to do the job, your efforts to get going on it are going to be slower than they might have been, and should have been.

With any luck, that will make Trump even more unelectable than he already is.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

--
Bill Sloman. Sydney

 

[Bill Sloman]

On Friday, February 28, 2020 at 8:02:06 AM UTC+11, Whoey Louie wrote:

On Thursday, February 27, 2020 at 12:55:19 PM UTC-5, Rick C wrote:
On Thursday, February 27, 2020 at 9:51:16 AM UTC-5, Whoey Louie wrote:
On Wednesday, February 26, 2020 at 3:54:47 PM UTC-5, Rick C wrote:
On Wednesday, February 26, 2020 at 1:52:56 PM UTC-5, Whoey Louie wrote:

Seems a govt that according to Rick is just taking people to quarantine locations where they get no treatment is exactly the kind of govt that would lie about the extent of that happening.

I don't see a connection. Let's say you are in charge of the situation in China. You have ultimate control over everything in the country. How would you treat all these people?

How about treating them?

Ok, so you are just going to play dumb and pretend there's no problem. Got it. The Trump approach.

WTF? First you claim I'm "alarmist".

Not exactly. The claim is that you are a pig-ignorant twit who broadcasts alarmist claims because you don't pay any attention to where they come from and have no way of working out how plausible they are.

Now you say what would I do if I
was China, instead of putting people into concentration camps and not
treating them, and I say, well treat them and you claim I'm pretending
there is no problem?

The distinction between a concentration camp and an isolation ward is academic.

If you've got a mild case of Covid-19 there's no need to "treat" you. You need to be checked to make sure that you are still there, and haven't developed a serious case, but that isn't any kind of "treatment".

<snipped the usual idiocy>

No, once you assume that everyone lies all the time it is hard to know what to believe. I try to weigh my sources and figure out which ones lie when and who/when I can trust.

No one is assuming everyone lies and judging the veracity of facts by
the source is exactly why we're suspicious of China.

No. You assuming that anybody who tells a story that doesn't suite your ideas is lying. Veracity doesn't come into it.

Nothing wrong with being suspicious. Your rant above goes beyond "suspicious" talking about people being dragged away in the night.

That's because they are. But like most libs, you deny the facts when
it comes to the commie regimes or you're too lazy to go look.

People who don't want to go into quarantine are being dragged away. That's going to happen everywhere that tries to keep the epidemic contained.

Communist regimes use the approach to deal with other problems as well, but stopping infected people infecting anybody else happens to be a good idea, and leaving them at liberty to spread the epidemic isn't, even if it would make for fewer embarrasing images.

I'm sure the numbers in China are distorted, but that's only because it is hard to know who has the disease and who doesn't.

And you know this how? China has a history of lying about disease spread
as well as a long, long list of other things. Have you not seen the people who have been detained, disappeared, gone missing after they posted pictures or blogged about what is happening?

Please provide links of these heinous acts?

I'm not here to educate you on the history of China.

Just as well. Your total incapacity to separate fact from the kind of fiction you find appealing makes you a de-educator. The problem is that you keep on trying to persuade us that your silly ideas have some merit, so you are attempting to be an educator - your only saving grace is that you are so transparently and obviously ill-informed that you aren't persuasive.

I don't believe the Chinese government is intentionally lying.

You can choose to believe whatever you want to believe. It's typical that
libs love to believe commie govts.

Ok, so now it has become a political issue for you. That explains a lot.

It does. Because the typical libs are what the commies call useful idiots.
Bernie is a good example.

Bernie Sanders is a democratic socialist, not a communist. This has been a real distinction since 1871 when Karl Marx and the proto-communists got thrown out of the international socialist movement for being undemocratic.

Right-wingers ignore this inconvenient fact - some, like you because they are too stupid to know about it, and others because it lets them concoct snappy - if misleading - sound-bites.

I don't see any upside for them to lie. At this point they know they will be found out, just as a doctor who reported the new disease early on was forced to recant...

He's dead now and some suspect he may have been put down.

Nobody sane thinks he might have been put down.

You don't see
any upside for lying?

I'm not going to continue to feed your delusions, but if they made him recant his early statement that the disease was in the wild, why didn't they bury the report of his death?

Maybe they tried and failed. Or they figured they have the perfect cover,
so use it. Who's going to object? Who wants to be the next one to
disappear? Since you're an expert on the commies, where is that student
who stood in front of the tanks at Tianamen Square?

Silly question.

That's when he made the national news, doctor dying of disease he blew the whistle on!

BS, he was in the news together with others that had blogged, taken
pictures, reporters, all taken into custody and some never seen again.

He was in the news - in a minor way - before he died. His death of the disease had an ironic content that made it the kind of thing that newspapers like to publish

> > > Then why did China do exactly that with previous similar situations? What will be utlimately found out? This isn't a court room. China controls their press, they can just stick to the official lies and deny, deny, deny. Eventually it all blows over.

You can't actually list any of the previous similar situations, and couldn't understand what was actually going on if you could come up with your imaginary list.

<snip>

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

 

[Jasen Betts]

On 2020-02-27, Michael Terrell <terrell.michael.a@gmail.com> wrote:

On Thursday, February 27, 2020 at 9:56:03 AM UTC-5, Whoey Louie wrote:
On Thursday, February 27, 2020 at 6:46:44 AM UTC-5, Tom Gardner wrote:
On 26/02/20 15:33, Whoey Louie wrote:
Google broken down under, stupid?

You clearly don't understand google:

1) google shows crap as well as gold
2) google gives different people different results for the same query

You make claims, you provide the references

If you think the morbidity from Covid is 20%, not around 2%, then you
shouldn't even be commenting, because like Bill, you're just clueless.
And no, I'm not going to show you references for what has been all over
the news and is very easy to find. Screw off.


He's as spaced out as Joe Biden and his claim that 150,000,000 Americans have died from gunshots since 2007

Not actually what he said.

--
Jasen.

 

[Tom Gardner]

On 28/02/20 04:07, Rick C wrote:

On Thursday, February 27, 2020 at 10:17:58 PM UTC-5, Bill Sloman wrote:
On Friday, February 28, 2020 at 7:47:01 AM UTC+11, Whoey Louie wrote:
On Thursday, February 27, 2020 at 12:34:00 PM UTC-5, Rick C wrote:

The overall result is not a flat 700 per day. That's your first mistake.

BS. The total cases worldwide has been flat, averaging ~700 per day.

It wasn't today.

Why does that make China's numbers suspicious?

Because China is chock full of it, they have changed how they count cases
several times now, and China is known for LYING about outbreaks and
plenty else. Got it now?

They've changed their numbers once - to include people in Hubei Province who hadn't actually tested positive for the virus but who had had contact with somebody who had and who met the clinical criteria. That brought Hubei Province into line with the rest of the country.

My understanding is they changed reporting in the Hubei province as you indicate, to be *different* from the rest of the country on Feb 12. Then on Feb 19 changed it back to match the rest of the country. It explains the anomalous counts on those days.

Feb 17 73332 2003
Feb 18 75198 1866
Feb 19 75700 502


They may have lied in the past, but stakes were lower and probability of getting caught out correspondingly less.

Nobody is claiming that their data is perfect, but it's a lot more reliable than the imaginary numbers that half-wits like you chose to believe.



China has taken drastic measures to prevent the spread of this disease. Other countries are still coming to grips with this.

Mostly from one country, S. Korea. Iran seems to be jumping up rapidly as well. I don't know if we will hear much of what Iran is doing to fight this disease.

One day there is a big jump in Italy, another it's Iran, another
it's South Korea. Two months ago it wasn't in any of those countries.
And meanwhile almost nothing from Africa, which doesn't have the means,
resources, to even find it.

As I seem to have pointed out before, it isn't technically demanding to notice when people start dying of a new and unfamiliar form of pneumonia.

That's what prompted Iran to realise that they had Corvid-19 infections.

Ok, so China's numbers are lies in which case all is lost. Ok, thanks for sharing.

Again, it's not China's numbers that are alarming, it's that it's growing
exponentially OUTSIDE China.

In three places outside China. The numbers are going to grow exponentially only as long as the disease isn't recognised. As soon as it is, the affected areas are going to be locked down. For very small numbers of infections, contact tracing works and you only have to quarantine the people who might have got infected.

I don't consider Switzerland going from 1 case to 5 to be proof of exponential growth and certainly isn't a pandemic.

ROFL

Look at Iran, Italy, South Korea, Singapore. Or just look at the freaking
exponential curve that's been going on for over a month. Geez.

It stopped looking exponential when the Chinese lock-downs started working.

It's now going up again as other countries realise that they should have taken their initial samll numbers more seriously.

Treating whole world numbers as if they represent a single process is mathematically incompetent, but that's our Whoey Louie.

Can you provide a quote? I didn't see that anywhere.

Google broken for you too?

https://nypost.com/2020/02/27/cdc-director-downplays-claim-that-coronavirus-spread-is-inevitable/

So it is very good news then that yesterday there were zero new cases in the US of COVID-19.

That's wrong, I just pointed out the new case that appears to be community
based spread.

No, you are wrong. Go read about your "new case" again. That person was already counted.


Oh and while Trump is saying everything is under control, let's look at
that one case, outside Sacramento. The patient was initially hospitalized
then transfered to a second hospital on Wed. By that time the patient
was intubated. That hospital immediately requested that the CDC run
a test for Covid. CDC refused because the patient didn't meet the criteria.
So, you have a patient so bad that they have been in two hospitals, have
all the symptoms, are so bad they are intubated, and the CDC won't even test
because the patient had no known contact, had not been out of the country, etc
Finally on Sunday the CDC did the test and found out the patient is infected.
And there is no known contact to explain it. So, when we're not testing,
how the hell are we going to find it and how many more cases like this are
there already?

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/02/26/trump-faces-chernobyl-moment-slashing-pandemic-defences-bone/

When only three of the 100 US public health labs have working test kits, you aren't going to find many new cases until they get them.

Makes you wonder if we are actually trying to stop this disease.

Regrettably that is a reasonable question...

Trump put Pence in charge of the response. Pence is anti-science
to the extent that in 2001 he denied that smoking causes cancer
and kills.

Apparently Pence also enabled an HIV outbreak in Indiana.

 

[Tom Gardner]

On 28/02/20 06:12, Bill Sloman wrote:

On Friday, February 28, 2020 at 8:02:06 AM UTC+11, Whoey Louie wrote:
That's because they are. But like most libs, you deny the facts when it
comes to the commie regimes or you're too lazy to go look.

People who don't want to go into quarantine are being dragged away. That's
going to happen everywhere that tries to keep the epidemic contained.

For example, that *will* happen in the UK, under The Health
Protection (Coronavirus) Regulations 2020
https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2020/129/regulation/4/made

Communist regimes use the approach to deal with other problems as well, but
stopping infected people infecting anybody else happens to be a good idea,
and leaving them at liberty to spread the epidemic isn't, even if it would
make for fewer embarrasing images.

Now the current government is just as destructive as any idiot
communist regime, but nobody would mistake them for being communist.

 

[Whoey Louie]

On Thursday, February 27, 2020 at 10:17:58 PM UTC-5, Bill Sloman wrote:

On Friday, February 28, 2020 at 7:47:01 AM UTC+11, Whoey Louie wrote:
On Thursday, February 27, 2020 at 12:34:00 PM UTC-5, Rick C wrote:
On Thursday, February 27, 2020 at 9:41:05 AM UTC-5, Whoey Louie wrote:
On Wednesday, February 26, 2020 at 3:44:05 PM UTC-5, Rick C wrote:
On Wednesday, February 26, 2020 at 1:01:42 PM UTC-5, Whoey Louie wrote:

It's spreading at an exponential rate outside China, while China's rate
has declined. The result is it's been about flat ~700 new cases per
day over the last week. But cases outside China are now half that and
growing. You don't see health authorities anywhere saying what you
are saying, that the rate of spread is decreasing, do you?

Your math is poor. Here are the latest global numbers for new infections by day since the last measurement change.

976
996
979
554
883
740



Nothing wrong with my math.

Of course there is...

It's spreading at an exponential rate outside China, while China's rate
has declined. The result is it's been about flat ~700 new cases per
day over the last week.

The overall result is not a flat 700 per day. That's your first mistake.

BS. The total cases worldwide has been flat, averaging ~700 per day.

It wasn't today.

Exactly what I posted is true, it's growing
exponentially outside China, while China's numbers have declined. You
won't see that in the numbers you keep using, because that's the combined
numbers. Today the new case number is higher than ANY of your numbers
above, 1000, with 570 of those being from outside China. So now the
daily new cases outside China exceeds the new cases in China. Which
again is reason to be suspicious of the China numbers.

Why does that make China's numbers suspicious?

Because China is chock full of it, they have changed how they count cases
several times now, and China is known for LYING about outbreaks and
plenty else. Got it now?

They've changed their numbers once - to include people in Hubei Province who hadn't actually tested positive for the virus but who had had contact with somebody who had and who met the clinical criteria. That brought Hubei Province into line with the rest of the country.

They may have lied in the past, but stakes were lower and probability of getting caught out correspondingly less.

Nobody is claiming that their data is perfect, but it's a lot more reliable than the imaginary numbers that half-wits like you chose to believe.



China has taken drastic measures to prevent the spread of this disease. Other countries are still coming to grips with this.


The week before the numbers were above 2000 (prior to the a measurement change which was undone by the second change). So the numbers over the last 6 days are not stable around 700, they have declined to 700.

And today it's 1000. But heh, I'm alarmist.

Mostly from one country, S. Korea. Iran seems to be jumping up rapidly as well. I don't know if we will hear much of what Iran is doing to fight this disease.

One day there is a big jump in Italy, another it's Iran, another
it's South Korea. Two months ago it wasn't in any of those countries.
And meanwhile almost nothing from Africa, which doesn't have the means,
resources, to even find it.

As I seem to have pointed out before, it isn't technically demanding to notice when people start dying of a new and unfamiliar form of pneumonia.

That's what prompted Iran to realise that they had Corvid-19 infections.

I can't explain the dip three days ago. These numbers are large enough that I would not expect to see such an anomaly. Still, I see no indication of trouble in these numbers

That's because you're not looking at the numbers OUTSIDE China, in the
other 40+ countries. Those have been growing exponentially for over
a month. Now they have surpassed China's, that is if the China numbers
are true, which i doubt.

Ok, so China's numbers are lies in which case all is lost. Ok, thanks for sharing.

Again, it's not China's numbers that are alarming, it's that it's growing
exponentially OUTSIDE China.

In three places outside China. The numbers are going to grow exponentially only as long as the disease isn't recognised. As soon as it is, the affected areas are going to be locked down. For very small numbers of infections, contact tracing works and you only have to quarantine the people who might have got infected.

and while it is still early, it does seem to indicate China has addressed their problem. It does show the draconian measures require to limit the disease.

I thought China was lying???

Again, you're confused. I didn't post the above, follow the thread.

While the numbers outside of China seem to have problems, It is largely due to three countries.

It was one country, then two, then three, now it's 40+. Can you spell
pandemic?

I don't consider Switzerland going from 1 case to 5 to be proof of exponential growth and certainly isn't a pandemic.

ROFL

Look at Iran, Italy, South Korea, Singapore. Or just look at the freaking
exponential curve that's been going on for over a month. Geez.

It stopped looking exponential when the Chinese lock-downs started working.

It's now going up again as other countries realise that they should have taken their initial samll numbers more seriously.

Treating whole world numbers as if they represent a single process is mathematically incompetent, but that's our Whoey Louie.

We will see if they manage to contain the virus. I'll try tracking the top few countries to see if they get the spread under control.

The CDC said yesterday that the spread within the US is inevitable.

Can you provide a quote? I didn't see that anywhere.

Google broken for you too?

https://nypost.com/2020/02/27/cdc-director-downplays-claim-that-coronavirus-spread-is-inevitable/

You reporting that China has locked down cities. When I said the
streets of Milan are empty, it looks like China, you called that alarmist.

Reporting facts is not alarmist. Offering that fact as proof of a raging disease that is out of control is not. They are taking measures to prevent this disease from spreading in their country.

But as I have said, it is still early days and we will see what happens outside of China as we monitor what is happening inside China.


We know what's happening outside China, it's rapidly spreading, exponentially and has been for a month. We now have the first community spread case in the US, someone near Sacremento has it and there is no known contact
that can explain how they were infected. One person on an airplane can probably infect a dozen people.

So it is very good news then that yesterday there were zero new cases in the US of COVID-19.

That's wrong, I just pointed out the new case that appears to be community
based spread.

Oh and while Trump is saying everything is under control, let's look at
that one case, outside Sacramento. The patient was initially hospitalized
then transfered to a second hospital on Wed. By that time the patient
was intubated. That hospital immediately requested that the CDC run
a test for Covid. CDC refused because the patient didn't meet the criteria.
So, you have a patient so bad that they have been in two hospitals, have
all the symptoms, are so bad they are intubated, and the CDC won't even test
because the patient had no known contact, had not been out of the country, etc
Finally on Sunday the CDC did the test and found out the patient is infected.
And there is no known contact to explain it. So, when we're not testing,
how the hell are we going to find it and how many more cases like this are
there already?

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/02/26/trump-faces-chernobyl-moment-slashing-pandemic-defences-bone/

When only three of the 100 US public health labs have working test kits, you aren't going to find many new cases until they get them.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

All this from the village idiot who claims that the death rate is 20%,
while all the media has been reporting for over a month that it's ~2%.
Even worse, instead of admitting you're wrong, you instead demand that
I provide links? Google broken again? And then you accept the Chinese
numbers, see no reason why they would lie. You know why? Libs love and
always defend the commies and here you're lying just like the commies lie.

 

[Whoey Louie]

On Thursday, February 27, 2020 at 9:23:57 PM UTC-5, Bill Sloman wrote:

On Friday, February 28, 2020 at 1:51:16 AM UTC+11, Whoey Louie wrote:
On Wednesday, February 26, 2020 at 3:54:47 PM UTC-5, Rick C wrote:
On Wednesday, February 26, 2020 at 1:52:56 PM UTC-5, Whoey Louie wrote:
On Wednesday, February 26, 2020 at 1:38:21 PM UTC-5, edward...@gmail.com wrote:
On Wednesday, February 26, 2020 at 9:46:02 AM UTC-8, Rick C wrote:
On Tuesday, February 25, 2020 at 9:42:42 PM UTC-5, Bill Sloman wrote:
On Wednesday, February 26, 2020 at 12:15:43 PM UTC+11, edward...@gmail.com wrote:
On Tuesday, February 25, 2020 at 3:33:00 PM UTC-8, Rick C wrote:
On Tuesday, February 25, 2020 at 4:03:23 PM UTC-5, edward...@gmail.com wrote:
On Tuesday, February 25, 2020 at 12:06:49 PM UTC-8, Whoey Louie wrote:
On Tuesday, February 25, 2020 at 10:09:39 AM UTC-5, Rick C wrote:
On Thursday, February 20, 2020 at 11:24:33 AM UTC-5, Rick C wrote:
On Tuesday, February 18, 2020 at 9:36:21 PM UTC-5, Rick C wrote:
On Sunday, February 16, 2020 at 9:24:03 AM UTC-5, Rick C wrote:

snip

Seems a govt that according to Rick is just taking people to quarantine
locations where they get no treatment is exactly the kind of govt that
would lie about the extent of that happening.

I don't see a connection. Let's say you are in charge of the situation in China. You have ultimate control over everything in the country. How would you treat all these people?

How about treating them?

There's - as yet - nothing you can do to help a patient who has the virus in getting rid of it.

As usual, the dishonest lib twist and distorts. It was posted here that
China is carting people off that are infected to holding places and
providing no treatment. Rick asked, what would you do? I said, how
about treating them. That doesn't mean or imply that you need a drug
or treatment to "get rid of it". But you can provide supportive treatment
to give them a better chance of surviving, stupid.

If they've got it bad enough to have viral pneumonia, you can do stuff to help them stay alive until their immune system can on top of the virus - pure oxygen can help.

No shit Sherlock. We call that "treatment". And all this baloney from
the guy who claims the death rate is 20% and when told it's 2%, acts like
that's a number pulled from space, when it's been widely reported just
about every day for a month. Show me proof! Show me proof?
Google broken down there again? I mean to be discussing this at all
pontificating and to not know the ~2% number makes you the village idiot.
Now go feed the kangaroos. Make sure they aren't on fire first.