OT: more from the resident alarmist

[Rick C]

On Friday, February 14, 2020 at 3:14:03 PM UTC-5, Whoey Louie wrote:

On Thursday, February 13, 2020 at 9:56:44 PM UTC-5, Rick C wrote:
On Thursday, February 13, 2020 at 9:36:20 PM UTC-5, Whoey Louie wrote:
On Thursday, February 13, 2020 at 9:33:19 PM UTC-5, Bill Sloman wrote:
On Friday, February 14, 2020 at 8:14:26 AM UTC+11, Whoey Louie wrote:
On Thursday, February 13, 2020 at 3:43:27 PM UTC-5, > > > One guy from HK was on that ship, now there are 200+ victims. Which
leads me to wonder if it's not spreading via the air system or similar.

The incubation time for the new corona virus is typically seven to ten days.

The number of new cases per day isn't rising,

That ranks among the dumbest things you've posted here so far.
Nuff said. It has an exponential growth curve.

You haven't been looking at the data. Until they change the reporting standard, the daily number of new cases had pretty much leveled off.

That's a lie.

Coronavirus live updates: Cases rise to more than 65,000 ...
https://www.cnn.com › live-news › coronavirus-outbreak-02-14-20-intl-hnk
31 mins ago - Mainland China has recorded 5090 more cases of the novel coronavirus, under its new broader definition, bringing the global total to 64435.

That's today and there was no change today in how they report. That's
a growth of 8% in one day!

Please reread what I wrote. You don't seem to understand what is meant by "new cases".

You said the growth was exponential. It's not, it is now constant growth. The data from before the change in criteria was showing that. There is not enough data post-change to say for sure, but the two days seem to indicate that as well.

Date Total Daily change
Feb 04 24,553
Feb 05 28,276 3723
Feb 06 31,439 3163
Feb 07 34,876 3437
Feb 08 37,552 2676
Feb 09 40,553 3001
Feb 10 43,099 2546
Feb 11 45,170 2071

In fact, as you can see above, the new cases, shown in the far right column are decreasing nearly every day. With the new reporting we don't even have three samples to take a first measurement of the change in slope of the line. It is just after midnight GMT which is when the data is updated at

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-cases/

Then we will have a third day after the criteria change and will at least have two "new case" numbers to compare meaningfully.

Now that they are counting more cases from the new criteria it will be a few days before we can tell if the leveling is consistent. If so, it should not be long before the number of new cases starts dropping.


Oh, BS.

Yes, I can see that anything you can't understand is BS. So you must live in a huge pile of it.

I also know from your history you are loath to learn anything new. So be it. The mule from "Swinging on a star".

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9CDs067081E

--

Rick C.

-++ Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
-++ Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

 

[Bill Sloman]

On Saturday, February 15, 2020 at 7:11:18 AM UTC+11, Whoey Louie wrote:

On Thursday, February 13, 2020 at 9:33:19 PM UTC-5, Bill Sloman wrote:
On Friday, February 14, 2020 at 8:14:26 AM UTC+11, Whoey Louie wrote:
On Thursday, February 13, 2020 at 3:43:27 PM UTC-5, Rick C wrote:
On Thursday, February 13, 2020 at 3:05:20 PM UTC-5, edward...@gmail..com wrote:
On Thursday, February 13, 2020 at 11:16:22 AM UTC-8, Whoey Louie wrote:
On Tuesday, February 11, 2020 at 4:29:05 PM UTC-5, bitrex wrote:
On 2/11/20 1:07 AM, whit3rd wrote:
On Monday, February 10, 2020 at 9:10:19 AM UTC-8, edward...@gmail.com wrote:

Last week, researchers from the University of Hong Kong estimated 75,815 had been infected
in Wuhan as of Jan. 25 and projected the epidemic would double every 6.4 days.

That's the big reveal; the exponential growth time constant means that, unchecked,
the last uninfected region succumbs...in this calendar year.. Too soon for a vaccine solution.

Cities are especially swift in transmission, and it started in a city, but this could easily
outpace the flu pandemic of 1918-1920 because there's more population in cities nowadays.


There's good evidence influenza can be spread by aerosol droplets
(airborne) but none so far that the coronavirus is spread other
than through close personal contact/large droplets.


What about the cruise ship docked in Japan? Over a couple weeks we've
watched the number of cases go from 16 to 200+. Were all those people
infected before they were quarantined to their rooms? Or is it
spreading somehow via the air system or somehow else.

One guy from HK flew to Japan, traveled to Yokohama, got on that ship
went with it back to HK and that's how 200+ would up getting it..

Another guy from UK, was in Singapore, he traveled to the French Alps,
then back to UK. He infected a dozen people in 3 countries.
Healthcare workers in China, using reasonable measures are being
infected. Sounds pretty easy to transmit to me.

That's why this virus is very dangerous. It's likely air-borne, can survive on external surfaces for many days,

No, not many days. Once again you state "facts" without support. I believe I read the virus can remain alive for around 24 hours in an infectious state.


https://www.sciencealert.com/study-shows-just-how-long-coronaviruses-can-stick-around-on-a-surface

New Study Indicates How Long Coronaviruses Can Survive on a Surface
CARLY CASSELLA13 FEB 2020
If the new coronavirus 2019-nCoV (now officially named COVID-19) is anything like its family members, a new study suggests it could survive on inanimate objects for well over a week. "


Now you'll say, but that isn't this paricular corona virus. The answer is,
no one knows for this virus, including the CDC, so looks like the above
is about the best we have at this point.






or hiding in carriers without synonyms. In another words, the virus can grow and multiply without triggering the immune system, but it can stiff infect others.

We need to learn as much as possible from China; so we know how to deal with it locally.

"Hiding"??? The issue of being infectious before displaying symptoms is not unusual with colds and flus.

Yes, but with the flu, from the time of infection to symptoms is a couple
of days. With Covid it's much longer, apparently up to 2 weeks.

https://healthengine.com.au/info/influenza-flu

"Healthy adults began shedding the flu virus one half to one day after they were exposed, with a sharp increase to peak shedding on the second day, followed by a rapid decline.Average duration of shedding is 4.8 days, though it continues for 10 days in some individuals."

"The incubation period (during which a person is infected with the virus but doesn’t experience any symptoms) is 1 to 3 days. Symptoms then start suddenly."

The new corona virus seems to have a longer incubation period - typically 7 to 10 days, with 14 days as a maximum. This does make for more effective transmission, but since the virus is going to be shed in smaller numbers over that period, it may not infect any more people.

So, if people are walking around, no symptoms, but spreading it, that's
a very big difference and reason for concern.

That's exactly how influenza works. The Spanish flu killed enough people to remind us that certain strains of flu can be decidedly dangerous, but the new corona virus isn't uniquely dangerous.

Are you following the quarantined cruise ship? They've been quarantined
for about ten days now and the number of cases is still rising rapidly.
One guy from HK was on that ship, now there are 200+ victims. Which
leads me to wonder if it's not spreading via the air system or similar.

The incubation time for the new corona virus is typically seven to ten days.

The number of new cases per day isn't rising, and the hypothesis that nobody has got infected since the ship went into lock-down isn't untenable.

Wrong again.

"An additional 44 cases of the illness were identified on the Diamond Princess on Thursday, bringing the total number of infections to 218. That accounts for more than one third of all cases detected outside mainland China."

The testing is done in batches, so the number of new cases reported on a given day isn't a rate of infection per day number.

The error is all your's.

The ship wasn't designed as an isolation ward,

But the people are confined to their rooms, and with 41 new cases showing
up yesterday, it's beginning to look like it may be spreading anyway.
Which would mean it's more easily transmitted than thought. Also,
someone probably should ask Japan why they are not in more appropriate
locations.

There no reason to suspect that it "spreading anyway". When the typical interval between getting infected and showing symptoms is seven to ten days (with outliers), the number of cases that have been reported over the past couple of days aren't inconsistent with quite a lot of infection before the ship got locked down, and very little after that.

and the ship's staff aren't as meticulous about preventing cross-infections as medically trained people would be,

WTF? The freaking boat isn't floating in the middle of the ocean.
It's docked in Japan, that has the proper resources and medically trained
people.

But the medically trained people haven't replaced the ship's staff.

> Are you some kind of racist?

If the ship's staff had been replaced by medically trained Japanese (which they haven't), that might be a plausible inference. In fact it just means that you can't think straight - as we've known for quite a while.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

 

and the ship's staff aren't as meticulous about preventing cross-infections as medically trained people would be,

WTF? The freaking boat isn't floating in the middle of the ocean.
It's docked in Japan, that has the proper resources and medically trained
people. Are you some kind of racist?

The Japanese did not experience much damages from SARS. So they did not take this too seriously at first. The doctor seeing the passengers did not have protective clothings and was infected himself. It's very likely that he passed the virus around as well.

The other 30 cases are spreading all over Japan, including an infected taxi driver who drove another 700 people before getting detected.

Furthermore, they donated all their emergency resources (masks and supplies) to WuHan and they need donation themselves now.

 

[Bill Sloman]

On Saturday, February 15, 2020 at 7:14:03 AM UTC+11, Whoey Louie wrote:

On Thursday, February 13, 2020 at 9:56:44 PM UTC-5, Rick C wrote:
On Thursday, February 13, 2020 at 9:36:20 PM UTC-5, Whoey Louie wrote:
On Thursday, February 13, 2020 at 9:33:19 PM UTC-5, Bill Sloman wrote:
On Friday, February 14, 2020 at 8:14:26 AM UTC+11, Whoey Louie wrote:
On Thursday, February 13, 2020 at 3:43:27 PM UTC-5, > > > One guy from HK was on that ship, now there are 200+ victims. Which
leads me to wonder if it's not spreading via the air system or similar.

The incubation time for the new corona virus is typically seven to ten days.

The number of new cases per day isn't rising,

That ranks among the dumbest things you've posted here so far.
Nuff said. It has an exponential growth curve.

You haven't been looking at the data. Until they change the reporting standard, the daily number of new cases had pretty much leveled off.

That's a lie.

Coronavirus live updates: Cases rise to more than 65,000 ...
https://www.cnn.com › live-news › coronavirus-outbreak-02-14-20-intl-hnk
31 mins ago - Mainland China has recorded 5090 more cases of the novel coronavirus, under its new broader definition, bringing the global total to 64435.

That's today and there was no change today in how they report. That's
a growth of 8% in one day!

There is a change in how they report - Hubei province is now reporting cases of the new corona virus based on clinical presentation rather than waiting until the case has tested positive for the virus. That means that new case get added to the list earlier than they would have done in the past.

Since Hubei province is still reporting most of the cases, this does make a difference. 8% in one day isn't a useful statistic.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

shows that that the death rate has finally started rising more slowly, which is a positive sign.

Now that they are counting more cases from the new criteria it will be a few days before we can tell if the leveling is consistent. If so, it should not be long before the number of new cases starts dropping.

Oh, BS.

Which is to say Whoey Louie doesn't understand how statistical inference works, which doesn't come as a surprise.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

 

[Whoey Louie]

On Friday, February 14, 2020 at 8:49:50 PM UTC-5, edward...@gmail.com wrote:

and the ship's staff aren't as meticulous about preventing cross-infections as medically trained people would be,

WTF? The freaking boat isn't floating in the middle of the ocean.
It's docked in Japan, that has the proper resources and medically trained
people. Are you some kind of racist?

The Japanese did not experience much damages from SARS. So they did not take this too seriously at first. The doctor seeing the passengers did not have protective clothings and was infected himself. It's very likely that he passed the virus around as well.

The other 30 cases are spreading all over Japan, including an infected taxi driver who drove another 700 people before getting detected.

Furthermore, they donated all their emergency resources (masks and supplies) to WuHan and they need donation themselves now.

Well, Japan, that mighty economic power, must really be really like Somalia..
They sent all their masks and supplies to China, so they don't have enough
resources for just a few hundred patients? ROFL That's a good one.

 

Whoey Louie <trader4@optonline.net> wrote in
news:d1772020-7f15-4deb-b47a-a941e7f4afdd@googlegroups.com:

On Friday, February 14, 2020 at 8:49:50 PM UTC-5,
edward...@gmail.com wrote:
and the ship's staff aren't as meticulous about preventing
cross-infec
tions as medically trained people would be,

WTF? The freaking boat isn't floating in the middle of the
ocean. It's docked in Japan, that has the proper resources and
medically train
ed
people. Are you some kind of racist?

The Japanese did not experience much damages from SARS. So they
did not
take this too seriously at first. The doctor seeing the
passengers did not have protective clothings and was infected
himself. It's very likely that he passed the virus around as
well.

The other 30 cases are spreading all over Japan, including an
infected ta
xi driver who drove another 700 people before getting detected.

Furthermore, they donated all their emergency resources (masks
and suppli
es) to WuHan and they need donation themselves now.

Well, Japan, that mighty economic power, must really be really
like Somalia. They sent all their masks and supplies to China, so
they don't have enough resources for just a few hundred patients?
ROFL That's a good one.

The coronavirus is a 125nm spheroid.

I am pretty sure that a friggin' 7 micron mask is not gonna stop
it. I have ALWAYS laughed at the practice. The ONLY thing those
masks are good for is stopping *some* OUTGOING particulate flow from
the wearer. NOT inbound breaths. If it is in the air and you are
not on a contained, sealed system, you are screwed.

125 nm particles can easily float about in the air.

 

[Whoey Louie]

On Friday, February 14, 2020 at 7:21:54 PM UTC-5, Rick C wrote:

On Friday, February 14, 2020 at 3:14:03 PM UTC-5, Whoey Louie wrote:
On Thursday, February 13, 2020 at 9:56:44 PM UTC-5, Rick C wrote:
On Thursday, February 13, 2020 at 9:36:20 PM UTC-5, Whoey Louie wrote:
On Thursday, February 13, 2020 at 9:33:19 PM UTC-5, Bill Sloman wrote:
On Friday, February 14, 2020 at 8:14:26 AM UTC+11, Whoey Louie wrote:
On Thursday, February 13, 2020 at 3:43:27 PM UTC-5, > > > One guy from HK was on that ship, now there are 200+ victims. Which
leads me to wonder if it's not spreading via the air system or similar.

The incubation time for the new corona virus is typically seven to ten days.

The number of new cases per day isn't rising,

That ranks among the dumbest things you've posted here so far.
Nuff said. It has an exponential growth curve.

You haven't been looking at the data. Until they change the reporting standard, the daily number of new cases had pretty much leveled off.

That's a lie.

Coronavirus live updates: Cases rise to more than 65,000 ...
https://www.cnn.com › live-news › coronavirus-outbreak-02-14-20-intl-hnk
31 mins ago - Mainland China has recorded 5090 more cases of the novel coronavirus, under its new broader definition, bringing the global total to 64435.

That's today and there was no change today in how they report. That's
a growth of 8% in one day!

Please reread what I wrote. You don't seem to understand what is meant by "new cases".

You said the growth was exponential. It's not, it is now constant growth.. The data from before the change in criteria was showing that. There is not enough data post-change to say for sure, but the two days seem to indicate that as well.

Date Total Daily change
Feb 04 24,553
Feb 05 28,276 3723
Feb 06 31,439 3163
Feb 07 34,876 3437
Feb 08 37,552 2676
Feb 09 40,553 3001
Feb 10 43,099 2546
Feb 11 45,170 2071

Are you always behind the times? That's 4 days ago.

https://www.statista.com/chart/20634/confirmed-coronavirus-cases-timeline/

The spread of the coronavirus from the Chinese city of Wuhan continues at a fast pace, with almost 65 thousand confirmed cases globally as of 11:00am GMT on 14 February. The virus, now officially named COVID-19, has now been confirmed in over 25 countries/territories outside of mainland China, totaling 585 cases. So far, Johns Hopkins University has tracked 1,384 deaths caused by the pandemic.

The spike in cases seen on 13 February is due to a change in diagnosis methodology in China which led to thousands of new cases being added to the total count."



Look at the graph. And they don't say it's leveling off, they say it's
spreading rapidly. The US just started testing all patients in the
general population, in five major cities, that have no history of
possible exposure, who have
symptoms, but test negative for the flu. They wouldn't be starting
that, if they thought it was leveling out. The PM of Singapore has
said that it's now loose in the general population in their country
spreading from person to person there and they are just going to have
to deal with it spreading.

It could be spreading in Africa, undetected. Not a single case has
been reported there, but there are huge numbers of people moving
between Africa and China.

In fact, as you can see above, the new cases, shown in the far right column are decreasing nearly every day. With the new reporting we don't even have three samples to take a first measurement of the change in slope of the line. It is just after midnight GMT which is when the data is updated at

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-cases/

Then we will have a third day after the criteria change and will at least have two "new case" numbers to compare meaningfully.

It's 2/15! You're data ends on the 11th? You sound like Trump,
no worries, don't be "alarmist", it will be over in April when it
gets warm......

 

[Bill Sloman]

On Saturday, February 15, 2020 at 7:11:03 PM UTC+11, Whoey Louie wrote:

On Friday, February 14, 2020 at 7:21:54 PM UTC-5, Rick C wrote:
On Friday, February 14, 2020 at 3:14:03 PM UTC-5, Whoey Louie wrote:
On Thursday, February 13, 2020 at 9:56:44 PM UTC-5, Rick C wrote:
On Thursday, February 13, 2020 at 9:36:20 PM UTC-5, Whoey Louie wrote:
On Thursday, February 13, 2020 at 9:33:19 PM UTC-5, Bill Sloman wrote:
On Friday, February 14, 2020 at 8:14:26 AM UTC+11, Whoey Louie wrote:
On Thursday, February 13, 2020 at 3:43:27 PM UTC-5, > > > One guy from HK was on that ship, now there are 200+ victims. Which
leads me to wonder if it's not spreading via the air system or similar.

The incubation time for the new corona virus is typically seven to ten days.

The number of new cases per day isn't rising,

That ranks among the dumbest things you've posted here so far.
Nuff said. It has an exponential growth curve.

You haven't been looking at the data. Until they change the reporting standard, the daily number of new cases had pretty much leveled off.

That's a lie.

Coronavirus live updates: Cases rise to more than 65,000 ...
https://www.cnn.com › live-news › coronavirus-outbreak-02-14-20-intl-hnk
31 mins ago - Mainland China has recorded 5090 more cases of the novel coronavirus, under its new broader definition, bringing the global total to 64435.

That's today and there was no change today in how they report. That's
a growth of 8% in one day!

Please reread what I wrote. You don't seem to understand what is meant by "new cases".

You said the growth was exponential. It's not, it is now constant growth. The data from before the change in criteria was showing that. There is not enough data post-change to say for sure, but the two days seem to indicate that as well.

Date Total Daily change
Feb 04 24,553
Feb 05 28,276 3723
Feb 06 31,439 3163
Feb 07 34,876 3437
Feb 08 37,552 2676
Feb 09 40,553 3001
Feb 10 43,099 2546
Feb 11 45,170 2071

Are you always behind the times? That's 4 days ago.

https://www.statista.com/chart/20634/confirmed-coronavirus-cases-timeline/

The spread of the coronavirus from the Chinese city of Wuhan continues at a fast pace, with almost 65 thousand confirmed cases globally as of 11:00am GMT on 14 February. The virus, now officially named COVID-19, has now been confirmed in over 25 countries/territories outside of mainland China, totaling 585 cases. So far, Johns Hopkins University has tracked 1,384 deaths caused by the pandemic.

The spike in cases seen on 13 February is due to a change in diagnosis methodology in China which led to thousands of new cases being added to the total count."

This has been mentioned here already.

Look at the graph. And they don't say it's leveling off, they say it's
spreading rapidly. The US just started testing all patients in the
general population, in five major cities, that have no history of
possible exposure, who have symptoms, but test negative for the flu.

They wouldn't be starting that, if they thought it was leveling out.

It's "levelling out" in Hubei Province because the province has been in lock-down for about a fortnight. That changes how much people interact and reduces the chance that somebody would infect a new patients between they time they got the infection and the time they started showing visible signs of being infected.

In the US there have been fifteen confined cases, and if they are testing now it is in the hope of catching any outbreak early, and getting started on a Hubei -style lockdown before too many people have got infected.

It's going to be precautionary, not any kind of evidcence it is already taking off in the US.

The PM of Singapore has
said that it's now loose in the general population in their country
spreading from person to person there and they are just going to have
to deal with it spreading.

The Hubei style lock-down is a way of dealing with it spreading. It's horribly expensive and inconvenient, but you only have to keep it up for 14 days after the last new case shows up.

Vaccination would be better, but the vaccines are still in development.

> It could be spreading in Africa, undetected.

Until it starts killing people. That attracts attention, even in Africa.

> Not a single case has been reported there, but there are huge numbers of people moving between Africa and China.

Not so much since the new corona virsus hit the news.

In fact, as you can see above, the new cases, shown in the far right column are decreasing nearly every day. With the new reporting we don't even have three samples to take a first measurement of the change in slope of the line. It is just after midnight GMT which is when the data is updated at

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-cases/

Then we will have a third day after the criteria change and will at least have two "new case" numbers to compare meaningfully.

It's 2/15! You're data ends on the 11th? You sound like Trump,
no worries, don't be "alarmist", it will be over in April when it
gets warm......

Whoey Louie can't get anything right. Nobody sane is saying that warm weather is going to make the new corona virus any less infectious.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

 

[Bill Sloman]

On Saturday, February 15, 2020 at 7:37:32 PM UTC+11, DecadentLinux...@decadence.org wrote:

Whoey Louie <trader4@optonline.net> wrote in
news:d1772020-7f15-4deb-b47a-a941e7f4afdd@googlegroups.com:

On Friday, February 14, 2020 at 8:49:50 PM UTC-5,
edward...@gmail.com wrote:
and the ship's staff aren't as meticulous about preventing
cross-infec
tions as medically trained people would be,

WTF? The freaking boat isn't floating in the middle of the
ocean. It's docked in Japan, that has the proper resources and
medically train
ed
people. Are you some kind of racist?

The Japanese did not experience much damages from SARS. So they
did not
take this too seriously at first. The doctor seeing the
passengers did not have protective clothings and was infected
himself. It's very likely that he passed the virus around as
well.

The other 30 cases are spreading all over Japan, including an
infected ta
xi driver who drove another 700 people before getting detected.

Furthermore, they donated all their emergency resources (masks
and suppli
es) to WuHan and they need donation themselves now.

Well, Japan, that mighty economic power, must really be really
like Somalia. They sent all their masks and supplies to China, so
they don't have enough resources for just a few hundred patients?
ROFL That's a good one.



The coronavirus is a 125nm spheroid.

I am pretty sure that a friggin' 7 micron mask is not gonna stop
it. I have ALWAYS laughed at the practice. The ONLY thing those
masks are good for is stopping *some* OUTGOING particulate flow from
the wearer. NOT inbound breaths. If it is in the air and you are
not on a contained, sealed system, you are screwed.

125 nm particles can easily float about in the air.

But the corona virus doesn't get into the air as individual virus particles.

Infected patients cough or sneeze and eject droplets of mucus (which is 95% water). The virus is carried up in those droplets.

If the mask can trap the droplets, it also traps the virus particles.
They do work. Not perfectly, but they can make quite a big difference.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

 

[Phil Hobbs]

On 2020-02-15 03:37, DecadentLinuxUserNumeroUno@decadence.org wrote:

Whoey Louie <trader4@optonline.net> wrote in
news:d1772020-7f15-4deb-b47a-a941e7f4afdd@googlegroups.com:

On Friday, February 14, 2020 at 8:49:50 PM UTC-5,
edward...@gmail.com wrote:
and the ship's staff aren't as meticulous about preventing
cross-infec
tions as medically trained people would be,

WTF? The freaking boat isn't floating in the middle of the
ocean. It's docked in Japan, that has the proper resources and
medically train
ed
people. Are you some kind of racist?

The Japanese did not experience much damages from SARS. So they
did not
take this too seriously at first. The doctor seeing the
passengers did not have protective clothings and was infected
himself. It's very likely that he passed the virus around as
well.

The other 30 cases are spreading all over Japan, including an
infected ta
xi driver who drove another 700 people before getting detected.

Furthermore, they donated all their emergency resources (masks
and suppli
es) to WuHan and they need donation themselves now.

Well, Japan, that mighty economic power, must really be really
like Somalia. They sent all their masks and supplies to China, so
they don't have enough resources for just a few hundred patients?
ROFL That's a good one.



The coronavirus is a 125nm spheroid.

I am pretty sure that a friggin' 7 micron mask is not gonna stop
it. I have ALWAYS laughed at the practice. The ONLY thing those
masks are good for is stopping *some* OUTGOING particulate flow from
the wearer. NOT inbound breaths. If it is in the air and you are
not on a contained, sealed system, you are screwed.

125 nm particles can easily float about in the air.

The droplets start out as mucus or saliva, and they tend to be tens of
microns in size. Saliva is roughly 99.5% water, according to Wiki,
which sounds plausible.

A 30-um droplet of saliva will therefore dry down into something about
30*(0.005)**1/3 or 5 um in diameter.

Cheers

Phil Hobbs

(Who used to do aerosol particle detection for a living)

--
Dr Philip C D Hobbs
Principal Consultant
ElectroOptical Innovations LLC / Hobbs ElectroOptics
Optics, Electro-optics, Photonics, Analog Electronics
Briarcliff Manor NY 10510

http://electrooptical.net
http://hobbs-eo.com

 

[Whoey Louie]

On Saturday, February 15, 2020 at 5:03:27 AM UTC-5, Bill Sloman wrote:

On Saturday, February 15, 2020 at 7:37:32 PM UTC+11, DecadentLinux...@decadence.org wrote:
Whoey Louie <trader4@optonline.net> wrote in
news:d1772020-7f15-4deb-b47a-a941e7f4afdd@googlegroups.com:

On Friday, February 14, 2020 at 8:49:50 PM UTC-5,
edward...@gmail.com wrote:
and the ship's staff aren't as meticulous about preventing
cross-infec
tions as medically trained people would be,

WTF? The freaking boat isn't floating in the middle of the
ocean. It's docked in Japan, that has the proper resources and
medically train
ed
people. Are you some kind of racist?

The Japanese did not experience much damages from SARS. So they
did not
take this too seriously at first. The doctor seeing the
passengers did not have protective clothings and was infected
himself. It's very likely that he passed the virus around as
well.

The other 30 cases are spreading all over Japan, including an
infected ta
xi driver who drove another 700 people before getting detected.

Furthermore, they donated all their emergency resources (masks
and suppli
es) to WuHan and they need donation themselves now.

Well, Japan, that mighty economic power, must really be really
like Somalia. They sent all their masks and supplies to China, so
they don't have enough resources for just a few hundred patients?
ROFL That's a good one.



The coronavirus is a 125nm spheroid.

I am pretty sure that a friggin' 7 micron mask is not gonna stop
it. I have ALWAYS laughed at the practice. The ONLY thing those
masks are good for is stopping *some* OUTGOING particulate flow from
the wearer. NOT inbound breaths. If it is in the air and you are
not on a contained, sealed system, you are screwed.

125 nm particles can easily float about in the air.

But the corona virus doesn't get into the air as individual virus particles.

Infected patients cough or sneeze and eject droplets of mucus (which is 95% water). The virus is carried up in those droplets.

Don't confuse always wrong with the facts.

If the mask can trap the droplets, it also traps the virus particles.
They do work. Not perfectly, but they can make quite a big difference.

You would think so, but here the CDC seems to be pouring cold water on
that idea, saying they don't recommend it, etc., IDK why. I'd be wearing
one if I was in an area where the virus was known to exist. Which may
be here soon. I would not be at all surprised to see an outbreak here
that's gone undetected, where the person had no known contact with
someone who they can identify as having had it, etc. The PM of
Singapore has come out and said that the containment there has failed
and it's now moving into the general population.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

 

[Rick C]

On Saturday, February 15, 2020 at 3:11:03 AM UTC-5, Whoey Louie wrote:

On Friday, February 14, 2020 at 7:21:54 PM UTC-5, Rick C wrote:
On Friday, February 14, 2020 at 3:14:03 PM UTC-5, Whoey Louie wrote:
On Thursday, February 13, 2020 at 9:56:44 PM UTC-5, Rick C wrote:
On Thursday, February 13, 2020 at 9:36:20 PM UTC-5, Whoey Louie wrote:
On Thursday, February 13, 2020 at 9:33:19 PM UTC-5, Bill Sloman wrote:
On Friday, February 14, 2020 at 8:14:26 AM UTC+11, Whoey Louie wrote:
On Thursday, February 13, 2020 at 3:43:27 PM UTC-5, > > > One guy from HK was on that ship, now there are 200+ victims. Which
leads me to wonder if it's not spreading via the air system or similar.

The incubation time for the new corona virus is typically seven to ten days.

The number of new cases per day isn't rising,

That ranks among the dumbest things you've posted here so far.
Nuff said. It has an exponential growth curve.

You haven't been looking at the data. Until they change the reporting standard, the daily number of new cases had pretty much leveled off.

That's a lie.

Coronavirus live updates: Cases rise to more than 65,000 ...
https://www.cnn.com › live-news › coronavirus-outbreak-02-14-20-intl-hnk
31 mins ago - Mainland China has recorded 5090 more cases of the novel coronavirus, under its new broader definition, bringing the global total to 64435.

That's today and there was no change today in how they report. That's
a growth of 8% in one day!

Please reread what I wrote. You don't seem to understand what is meant by "new cases".

You said the growth was exponential. It's not, it is now constant growth. The data from before the change in criteria was showing that. There is not enough data post-change to say for sure, but the two days seem to indicate that as well.

Date Total Daily change
Feb 04 24,553
Feb 05 28,276 3723
Feb 06 31,439 3163
Feb 07 34,876 3437
Feb 08 37,552 2676
Feb 09 40,553 3001
Feb 10 43,099 2546
Feb 11 45,170 2071

Are you always behind the times? That's 4 days ago.

https://www.statista.com/chart/20634/confirmed-coronavirus-cases-timeline/

Yes, I explained why I stopped at that data point.


> The spread of the coronavirus from the Chinese city of Wuhan continues at a fast pace, with almost 65 thousand confirmed cases globally as of 11:00am GMT on 14 February.

And only 67,100 a day later. That is the third post-criteria change that shows the new cases reducing on a day by day level.


> The virus, now officially named COVID-19, has now been confirmed in over 25 countries/territories outside of mainland China, totaling 585 cases. So far, Johns Hopkins University has tracked 1,384 deaths caused by the pandemic.

The total today is 1,526. What is your point???

The spike in cases seen on 13 February is due to a change in diagnosis methodology in China which led to thousands of new cases being added to the total count."



Look at the graph. And they don't say it's leveling off, they say it's
spreading rapidly.

You misunderstand. The rate of increase is leveling off. So it is not growing exponentially. In fact the more recent number (clouded by the change in critera) shows the rate of new cases is reducing. Clearly, the efforts to contain the virus are having an effect.

The US just started testing all patients in the
general population, in five major cities, that have no history of
possible exposure, who have
symptoms, but test negative for the flu. They wouldn't be starting
that, if they thought it was leveling out.

Your analysis is faulty. The rate of infection is only leveling out because of the rather extreme measures taken by China. We need to stay on top of this disease to determine if we need to take similar measures.

The PM of Singapore has
said that it's now loose in the general population in their country
spreading from person to person there and they are just going to have
to deal with it spreading.

Ok, but with only 72 cases it's not like they can't figure out methods to reduce the spread.

It could be spreading in Africa, undetected. Not a single case has
been reported there, but there are huge numbers of people moving
between Africa and China.

"Undetected"??? There are no cases is other areas as well. What is your point?

In fact, as you can see above, the new cases, shown in the far right column are decreasing nearly every day. With the new reporting we don't even have three samples to take a first measurement of the change in slope of the line. It is just after midnight GMT which is when the data is updated at

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-cases/

Then we will have a third day after the criteria change and will at least have two "new case" numbers to compare meaningfully.

It's 2/15! You're data ends on the 11th? You sound like Trump,
no worries, don't be "alarmist", it will be over in April when it
gets warm......

I explained why the data stopped at 2/11. Can you not read?

Here is the current data. The peak on 2/12 is due to the inclusion of symptomatic patients and not just those confirmed with testing. They don't have enough tests in China to test everyone suspected.

Feb 04 24553
Feb 05 28276 3723
Feb 06 31439 3163
Feb 07 34876 3437
Feb 08 37552 2676
Feb 09 40553 3001
Feb 10 43099 2546
Feb 11 45170 2071
Feb 12 59283 14113
Feb 13 64437 5154
Feb 14 67100 2663

Notice the new cases on 2/14 is lower than even some of the number from before the change in criteria. So clearly the rate of infection is slowing, in spite of more and more people being infected.

--

Rick C.

+-- Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
+-- Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

 

[Bill Sloman]

On Sunday, February 16, 2020 at 2:11:54 AM UTC+11, Whoey Louie wrote:

On Saturday, February 15, 2020 at 5:03:27 AM UTC-5, Bill Sloman wrote:
On Saturday, February 15, 2020 at 7:37:32 PM UTC+11, DecadentLinux...@decadence.org wrote:
Whoey Louie <trader4@optonline.net> wrote in
news:d1772020-7f15-4deb-b47a-a941e7f4afdd@googlegroups.com:

On Friday, February 14, 2020 at 8:49:50 PM UTC-5,
edward...@gmail.com wrote:
and the ship's staff aren't as meticulous about preventing
cross-infec
tions as medically trained people would be,

WTF? The freaking boat isn't floating in the middle of the
ocean. It's docked in Japan, that has the proper resources and
medically train
ed
people. Are you some kind of racist?

The Japanese did not experience much damages from SARS. So they
did not
take this too seriously at first. The doctor seeing the
passengers did not have protective clothings and was infected
himself. It's very likely that he passed the virus around as
well.

The other 30 cases are spreading all over Japan, including an
infected ta
xi driver who drove another 700 people before getting detected.

Furthermore, they donated all their emergency resources (masks
and suppli
es) to WuHan and they need donation themselves now.

Well, Japan, that mighty economic power, must really be really
like Somalia. They sent all their masks and supplies to China, so
they don't have enough resources for just a few hundred patients?
ROFL That's a good one.



The coronavirus is a 125nm spheroid.

I am pretty sure that a friggin' 7 micron mask is not gonna stop
it. I have ALWAYS laughed at the practice. The ONLY thing those
masks are good for is stopping *some* OUTGOING particulate flow from
the wearer. NOT inbound breaths. If it is in the air and you are
not on a contained, sealed system, you are screwed.

125 nm particles can easily float about in the air.

But the corona virus doesn't get into the air as individual virus particles.

Infected patients cough or sneeze and eject droplets of mucus (which is 95% water). The virus is carried up in those droplets.

Don't confuse always wrong with the facts.

DLUNU isn't confused by facts. He just rejects the ones he doesn't like - just like you.

If the mask can trap the droplets, it also traps the virus particles.
They do work. Not perfectly, but they can make quite a big difference.

You would think so, but here the CDC seems to be pouring cold water on
that idea, saying they don't recommend it, etc., IDK why.

They probably haven't got enough on hand.

> I'd be wearing one if I was in an area where the virus was known to exist. Which may be here soon.

Perhaps.

I would not be at all surprised to see an outbreak here
that's gone undetected, where the person had no known contact with
someone who they can identify as having had it, etc.

It seems to kill about 20% of the people who catch it. That gets attention pretty quickly.

> The PM of Singapore has come out and said that the containment there has failed and it's now moving into the general population.

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/singapore/coronavirus-covid-19-singapore-cases-grace-assembly-of-god--12434646

67 cases so far and the number is rising steadily. Presumably it is time to put the population into lockdown. That should dramatically reduce the number of new cases, but the number of reported cases is going to keep on rising for another ten days or so, as the people infected by the 67 known cases start showing symptoms - perhaps 200 people.

It won't be good - particularly for the 200 new cases - but it isn't remotely into Spanish Flu territory.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

 

[Rick C]

Another day of data makes the pattern more clear...

Feb 04 24553
Feb 05 28276 3723
Feb 06 31439 3163
Feb 07 34876 3437
Feb 08 37552 2676
Feb 09 40553 3001
Feb 10 43099 2546
Feb 11 45170 2071
Feb 12 59283 14113
Feb 13 64437 5154
Feb 14 67100 2663
Feb 15 69197 2097

This was the second smallest number of new infections other than the day before the criteria change. Of course this does not indicate the reason for the change. It could be the lack of facilities to process all the sick in the center of the contagion. Or it could be that the measures to prevent the spread of infection are starting to work.

In a similar manner, it appears the death rate is also leveling off, but the numbers are not as clear. Another day or two may provide more clear evidence.

Feb 04 492
Feb 05 565 73
Feb 06 638 73
Feb 07 724 86
Feb 08 813 89
Feb 09 910 97
Feb 10 1018 108
Feb 11 1115 97
Feb 12 1261 146
Feb 13 1383 122
Feb 14 1526 143
Feb 15 1669 143

--

Rick C.

+-+ Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
+-+ Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

 

> This was the second smallest number of new infections other than the day before the criteria change. Of course this does not indicate the reason for the change. It could be the lack of facilities to process all the sick in the center of the contagion. Or it could be that the measures to prevent the spread of infection are starting to work.

Roughly 50,000 infected. 20,000 isolated (total beds). 10,000 healed. 1,000 death. 27,000 simply disappeared.

> In a similar manner, it appears the death rate is also leveling off, but the numbers are not as clear. Another day or two may provide more clear evidence.

WuHan has 7 to 8 funeral homes, cremating 150 to 200 each. Direct death may be low. Indirect death (starvations, complications, suicides and others) due to the virus are very high.

 

[Bill Sloman]

On Monday, February 17, 2020 at 3:20:28 AM UTC+11, edward...@gmail.com wrote:

This was the second smallest number of new infections other than the day before the criteria change. Of course this does not indicate the reason for the change. It could be the lack of facilities to process all the sick in the center of the contagion. Or it could be that the measures to prevent the spread of infection are starting to work.

Roughly 50,000 infected. 20,000 isolated (total beds). 10,000 healed. 1,000 death. 27,000 simply disappeared.

Most likely not sick enough to need hospitalisation, so isolated at home and looked after by close relatives (who run a high risk of getting infected)..

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

In a similar manner, it appears the death rate is also leveling off, but the numbers are not as clear. Another day or two may provide more clear evidence.

WuHan has 7 to 8 funeral homes, cremating 150 to 200 each. Direct death may be low. Indirect death (starvations, complications, suicides and others) due to the virus are very high.

Indirect deaths aren't documented. Claiming that people are starving is a stretch. One can see that people who aren't up to looking after themselves might not get enough to eat in a city that is in lock-down - it happens from time to time in places that aren't in lock-down - but here it's just more alarmist propaganda from our resident alarmist.

As we seem to have to keep reminding Edward, Wuhan has a population of 11 million, and China has an average life expectancy of 76.5 years. That's an average death rate of 394 people per day, and it's going to be higher than that in winter (and lower in summer).

Today's total new corona virus deaths in China was 105, most of which will be in Wuhan.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

 

[speff]

On Thursday, 13 February 2020 11:13:56 UTC-5, edward...@gmail.com wrote:

On Thursday, February 13, 2020 at 7:19:07 AM UTC-8, Rick C wrote:
On Wednesday, February 12, 2020 at 8:54:03 PM UTC-5, Bill Sloman wrote:
On Thursday, February 13, 2020 at 11:54:30 AM UTC+11, edward...@gmail..com wrote:
What is the significance of this data?

They agree with my numbers now. The official number went up 30% overnight to 60,000.

snip

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

"Surge in number of cases and deaths due in most part to the adoption of a new diagnosis classification.

In conformity with other provinces, starting today, Hubei Province will include the number of clinically diagnosed cases into the number of confirmed cases.
Of the 14,840 cases added, 13,332 are due to the new classification while 1,508 are new cases."

That explains the jump in reported cases, but what about the reported deaths? That also has jumped. Were they not counting some deaths because they were not certain they were due to this new virus? So the death rate all along was higher than the numbers we've been seeing?

If the case met the clinical diagnosis criteria prior to death they can retroactively reclassify it. If they never got the patient to a CT scanner, for example, then it can't be. That's my interpretation anyway.

One of the reason is that Xi ordered people back to work. Don't know how that's going to work with public transits also shutdown at the same time. So, with more movements, infected and death rates are both going up.

The local governments (presumably with direction from the provincial and central governments and their epidemiologists) have been *delaying* back to work permission until health and safety supplies and materials are in place. In some places, the governments have not been as strict and the employees are being pushed to return by their companies because the government-imposed delay is voluntary. As well, with schools implementing distance learning for the next weeks it's difficult for moms to get out.

Below notification some of my peeps got- it is only valid a week after all the paperwork is electronically submitted. The landlord is also imposing restrictions on entry to the building (have to be on a list of approved people with clean background of no (admitted) visits to the most affected area, temperature check and their own supplies of hand disinfectant and masks).

https://i.imgur.com/gO6mbaZ.png

This is from the municipal level government. They were asking another Dutch-owned company for some ridiculous requirements to re-open- they eventually backed off to something practical, but they're still not open AFAIK.

AFAIK public transit is only shut in one city (Wuhan) out of hundreds in China, but they're doing additional checking in the subways. For example, my Shenzhen transit card wouldn't be accepted (temporarily) now because I paid cash for it, and it's not linked to my ID. They have passenger lists from long distance trains going to and from Hubei so they can cross check ID ("RealID") and keep people who have been in the most affected area off the crowded subway at least. Particularly important for a major city like Shenzhen where most of the people are from elsewhere in the country.

> Xi reasoning is that it's better to have some people dying from the virus, than most people suffering from economic set backs. Of course, he and his elites are the most affected by the economic down-turn.

They can't delay indefinitely, the local company owners are going to start disobeying the law just from the financial pressures. Even though they know if there is an outbreak at their factory they'll be severely punished.

Best regards,
Spehro Pefhany

 

[Whoey Louie]

On Saturday, February 15, 2020 at 8:13:33 PM UTC-5, Bill Sloman wrote:

On Sunday, February 16, 2020 at 2:11:54 AM UTC+11, Whoey Louie wrote:
On Saturday, February 15, 2020 at 5:03:27 AM UTC-5, Bill Sloman wrote:
On Saturday, February 15, 2020 at 7:37:32 PM UTC+11, DecadentLinux...@decadence.org wrote:
Whoey Louie <trader4@optonline.net> wrote in
news:d1772020-7f15-4deb-b47a-a941e7f4afdd@googlegroups.com:

On Friday, February 14, 2020 at 8:49:50 PM UTC-5,
edward...@gmail.com wrote:
and the ship's staff aren't as meticulous about preventing
cross-infec
tions as medically trained people would be,

WTF? The freaking boat isn't floating in the middle of the
ocean. It's docked in Japan, that has the proper resources and
medically train
ed
people. Are you some kind of racist?

The Japanese did not experience much damages from SARS. So they
did not
take this too seriously at first. The doctor seeing the
passengers did not have protective clothings and was infected
himself. It's very likely that he passed the virus around as
well.

The other 30 cases are spreading all over Japan, including an
infected ta
xi driver who drove another 700 people before getting detected.

Furthermore, they donated all their emergency resources (masks
and suppli
es) to WuHan and they need donation themselves now.

Well, Japan, that mighty economic power, must really be really
like Somalia. They sent all their masks and supplies to China, so
they don't have enough resources for just a few hundred patients?
ROFL That's a good one.



The coronavirus is a 125nm spheroid.

I am pretty sure that a friggin' 7 micron mask is not gonna stop
it. I have ALWAYS laughed at the practice. The ONLY thing those
masks are good for is stopping *some* OUTGOING particulate flow from
the wearer. NOT inbound breaths. If it is in the air and you are
not on a contained, sealed system, you are screwed.

125 nm particles can easily float about in the air.

But the corona virus doesn't get into the air as individual virus particles.

Infected patients cough or sneeze and eject droplets of mucus (which is 95% water). The virus is carried up in those droplets.

Don't confuse always wrong with the facts.

DLUNU isn't confused by facts. He just rejects the ones he doesn't like - just like you.

If the mask can trap the droplets, it also traps the virus particles.
They do work. Not perfectly, but they can make quite a big difference.

You would think so, but here the CDC seems to be pouring cold water on
that idea, saying they don't recommend it, etc., IDK why.

They probably haven't got enough on hand.

I'd be wearing one if I was in an area where the virus was known to exist. Which may be here soon.

Perhaps.

I would not be at all surprised to see an outbreak here
that's gone undetected, where the person had no known contact with
someone who they can identify as having had it, etc.

It seems to kill about 20% of the people who catch it. That gets attention pretty quickly.

WTF? Another total failure at math. You're off by an order of
magnitude. Good grief.

 

[Bill Sloman]

On Tuesday, February 18, 2020 at 12:41:55 AM UTC+11, Whoey Louie wrote:

On Saturday, February 15, 2020 at 8:13:33 PM UTC-5, Bill Sloman wrote:
On Sunday, February 16, 2020 at 2:11:54 AM UTC+11, Whoey Louie wrote:
On Saturday, February 15, 2020 at 5:03:27 AM UTC-5, Bill Sloman wrote:
On Saturday, February 15, 2020 at 7:37:32 PM UTC+11, DecadentLinux...@decadence.org wrote:
Whoey Louie <trader4@optonline.net> wrote in
news:d1772020-7f15-4deb-b47a-a941e7f4afdd@googlegroups.com:

On Friday, February 14, 2020 at 8:49:50 PM UTC-5,
edward...@gmail.com wrote:

<snip>

It seems to kill about 20% of the people who catch it. That gets attention pretty quickly.


WTF? Another total failure at math. You're off by an order of
magnitude. Good grief.

Whoey Louie thinks my estimate is wrong. but doesn't bother to post a link to what he imagines is better evidence.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

says that 1,776 have died and 11,421 have recovered. That's closer to 14%.

Some 71,447 peope have got the disease so far, and only 1,776 have died, which is only 2.5% of the people who have caught the disease, but 58,250 still have the disease of whom 11,421 are in a serious or critical condition, which is to say, may die.

Whoey Louie is the total failure at math here, which doesn't come as any surprise at all.

Comparing deaths with recoveries has a similar sort of error built in (if a much smaller one) - as it can take longer to recover than it does to die, so the 14% may be a small over-estimate.

This is a well known problem when looking at the early stages of epidemic, and one Whoey Louie clearly hasn't got a clue about.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

 

On Mon, 17 Feb 2020 04:15:10 -0800 (PST), speff <spehro@gmail.com>
wrote:

On Thursday, 13 February 2020 11:13:56 UTC-5, edward...@gmail.com wrote:
On Thursday, February 13, 2020 at 7:19:07 AM UTC-8, Rick C wrote:
On Wednesday, February 12, 2020 at 8:54:03 PM UTC-5, Bill Sloman wrote:
On Thursday, February 13, 2020 at 11:54:30 AM UTC+11, edward...@gmail.com wrote:
What is the significance of this data?

They agree with my numbers now. The official number went up 30% overnight to 60,000.

snip

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

"Surge in number of cases and deaths due in most part to the adoption of a new diagnosis classification.

In conformity with other provinces, starting today, Hubei Province will include the number of clinically diagnosed cases into the number of confirmed cases.
Of the 14,840 cases added, 13,332 are due to the new classification while 1,508 are new cases."

That explains the jump in reported cases, but what about the reported deaths? That also has jumped. Were they not counting some deaths because they were not certain they were due to this new virus? So the death rate all along was higher than the numbers we've been seeing?

If the case met the clinical diagnosis criteria prior to death they can retroactively reclassify it. If they never got the patient to a CT scanner, for example, then it can't be. That's my interpretation anyway.


One of the reason is that Xi ordered people back to work. Don't know how that's going to work with public transits also shutdown at the same time. So, with more movements, infected and death rates are both going up.

The local governments (presumably with direction from the provincial and central governments and their epidemiologists) have been *delaying* back to work permission until health and safety supplies and materials are in place. In some places, the governments have not been as strict and the employees are being pushed to return by their companies because the government-imposed delay is voluntary. As well, with schools implementing distance learning for the next weeks it's difficult for moms to get out.

Below notification some of my peeps got- it is only valid a week after all the paperwork is electronically submitted. The landlord is also imposing restrictions on entry to the building (have to be on a list of approved people with clean background of no (admitted) visits to the most affected area, temperature check and their own supplies of hand disinfectant and masks).

https://i.imgur.com/gO6mbaZ.png

This is from the municipal level government. They were asking another Dutch-owned company for some ridiculous requirements to re-open- they eventually backed off to something practical, but they're still not open AFAIK.

AFAIK public transit is only shut in one city (Wuhan) out of hundreds in China, but they're doing additional checking in the subways. For example, my Shenzhen transit card wouldn't be accepted (temporarily) now because I paid cash for it, and it's not linked to my ID. They have passenger lists from long distance trains going to and from Hubei so they can cross check ID ("RealID") and keep people who have been in the most affected area off the crowded subway at least. Particularly important for a major city like Shenzhen where most of the people are from elsewhere in the country.

Xi reasoning is that it's better to have some people dying from the virus, than most people suffering from economic set backs. Of course, he and his elites are the most affected by the economic down-turn.

They can't delay indefinitely, the local company owners are going to start disobeying the law just from the financial pressures. Even though they know if there is an outbreak at their factory they'll be severely punished.

Best regards,
Spehro Pefhany

What ultimately ends an epidemic? Maybe most of the suceptable people
have had it and died or got immune. Seems to me like the sorts of
measures taken now just change the time scale of the infection curve.

There don't seem to be non-human vectors, like rats or mosquitoes,
that we can eradicate to eliminate the infection locally.

Absent a vaccine, it would take extreme, worldwide, sustained (ie
impossible) action to actually kill off the virus.



--

John Larkin Highland Technology, Inc

The cork popped merrily, and Lord Peter rose to his feet.
"Bunter", he said, "I give you a toast. The triumph of Instinct over Reason"