OT: more from the resident alarmist

[Bill Sloman]

On Friday, February 14, 2020 at 6:16:22 AM UTC+11, Whoey Louie wrote:

On Tuesday, February 11, 2020 at 4:29:05 PM UTC-5, bitrex wrote:
On 2/11/20 1:07 AM, whit3rd wrote:
On Monday, February 10, 2020 at 9:10:19 AM UTC-8, edward...@gmail.com wrote:

Last week, researchers from the University of Hong Kong estimated 75,815 had been infected
in Wuhan as of Jan. 25 and projected the epidemic would double every 6.4 days.

That's the big reveal; the exponential growth time constant means that, unchecked,
the last uninfected region succumbs...in this calendar year. Too soon for a vaccine solution.

Cities are especially swift in transmission, and it started in a city, but this could easily
outpace the flu pandemic of 1918-1920 because there's more population in cities nowadays.


There's good evidence influenza can be spread by aerosol droplets
(airborne) but none so far that the coronavirus is spread other
than through close personal contact/large droplets.

What about the cruise ship docked in Japan? Over a couple weeks we've
watched the number of cases go from 16 to 200+.

https://time.com/5781629/japanese-cruise-ship-quarantine/

It's been stuck Yokohama harbor since Feb. 3, which is just over a week - not a couple of weeks.

> Were all those people infected before they were quarantined to their rooms?

It is possible. The incubation is typically 7 to 10 days, and quarantine is set at 14 days to cope with the outliers.

> Or is it spreading somehow via the air system or somehow else.

That can't be excluded, but it doesn't seem to be necessary to invoke it.

Families sharing cabins won't be isolated from one another.

One guy from HK flew to Japan, traveled to Yokohama, got on that ship
went with it back to HK and that's how 200+ would up getting it.

It's a hypothesis. There are probably others.

Another guy from UK, was in Singapore, he traveled to the French Alps,
then back to UK. He infected a dozen people in 3 countries.
Healthcare workers in China, using reasonable measures are being
infected. Sounds pretty easy to transmit to me.

Some people sneeze more frequently and energetically than others. This does make a difference. About a quarter of common cold cases are caused by a different corona virus. That's pretty easy to transmit too.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

 

[Whoey Louie]

On Thursday, February 13, 2020 at 9:33:19 PM UTC-5, Bill Sloman wrote:

On Friday, February 14, 2020 at 8:14:26 AM UTC+11, Whoey Louie wrote:
On Thursday, February 13, 2020 at 3:43:27 PM UTC-5, Rick C wrote:
On Thursday, February 13, 2020 at 3:05:20 PM UTC-5, edward...@gmail.com wrote:
On Thursday, February 13, 2020 at 11:16:22 AM UTC-8, Whoey Louie wrote:
On Tuesday, February 11, 2020 at 4:29:05 PM UTC-5, bitrex wrote:
On 2/11/20 1:07 AM, whit3rd wrote:
On Monday, February 10, 2020 at 9:10:19 AM UTC-8, edward...@gmail.com wrote:

Last week, researchers from the University of Hong Kong estimated 75,815 had been infected
in Wuhan as of Jan. 25 and projected the epidemic would double every 6.4 days.

That's the big reveal; the exponential growth time constant means that, unchecked,
the last uninfected region succumbs...in this calendar year. Too soon for a vaccine solution.

Cities are especially swift in transmission, and it started in a city, but this could easily
outpace the flu pandemic of 1918-1920 because there's more population in cities nowadays.


There's good evidence influenza can be spread by aerosol droplets
(airborne) but none so far that the coronavirus is spread other
than through close personal contact/large droplets.


What about the cruise ship docked in Japan? Over a couple weeks we've
watched the number of cases go from 16 to 200+. Were all those people
infected before they were quarantined to their rooms? Or is it
spreading somehow via the air system or somehow else.

One guy from HK flew to Japan, traveled to Yokohama, got on that ship
went with it back to HK and that's how 200+ would up getting it.

Another guy from UK, was in Singapore, he traveled to the French Alps,
then back to UK. He infected a dozen people in 3 countries.
Healthcare workers in China, using reasonable measures are being
infected. Sounds pretty easy to transmit to me.

That's why this virus is very dangerous. It's likely air-borne, can survive on external surfaces for many days,

No, not many days. Once again you state "facts" without support. I believe I read the virus can remain alive for around 24 hours in an infectious state.


https://www.sciencealert.com/study-shows-just-how-long-coronaviruses-can-stick-around-on-a-surface

New Study Indicates How Long Coronaviruses Can Survive on a Surface
CARLY CASSELLA13 FEB 2020
If the new coronavirus 2019-nCoV (now officially named COVID-19) is anything like its family members, a new study suggests it could survive on inanimate objects for well over a week. "


Now you'll say, but that isn't this paricular corona virus. The answer is,
no one knows for this virus, including the CDC, so looks like the above
is about the best we have at this point.






or hiding in carriers without synonyms. In another words, the virus can grow and multiply without triggering the immune system, but it can stiff infect others.

We need to learn as much as possible from China; so we know how to deal with it locally.

"Hiding"??? The issue of being infectious before displaying symptoms is not unusual with colds and flus.

Yes, but with the flu, from the time of infection to symptoms is a couple
of days. With Covid it's much longer, apparently up to 2 weeks.

https://healthengine.com.au/info/influenza-flu

"Healthy adults began shedding the flu virus one half to one day after they were exposed, with a sharp increase to peak shedding on the second day, followed by a rapid decline.Average duration of shedding is 4.8 days, though it continues for 10 days in some individuals."

"The incubation period (during which a person is infected with the virus but doesn’t experience any symptoms) is 1 to 3 days. Symptoms then start suddenly."

The new corona virus seems to have a longer incubation period - typically 7 to 10 days, with 14 days as a maximum. This does make for more effective transmission, but since the virus is going to be shed in smaller numbers over that period, it may not infect any more people.

So, if people are walking around, no symptoms, but spreading it, that's
a very big difference and reason for concern.

That's exactly how influenza works. The Spanish flu killed enough people to remind us that certain strains of flu can be decidedly dangerous, but the new corona virus isn't uniquely dangerous.

Are you following the quarantined cruise ship? They've been quarantined
for about ten days now and the number of cases is still rising rapidly.
One guy from HK was on that ship, now there are 200+ victims. Which
leads me to wonder if it's not spreading via the air system or similar.

The incubation time for the new corona virus is typically seven to ten days.

The number of new cases per day isn't rising,

That ranks among the dumbest things you've posted here so far.
Nuff said. It has an exponential growth curve.

 

[Bill Sloman]

On Friday, February 14, 2020 at 8:14:26 AM UTC+11, Whoey Louie wrote:

On Thursday, February 13, 2020 at 3:43:27 PM UTC-5, Rick C wrote:
On Thursday, February 13, 2020 at 3:05:20 PM UTC-5, edward...@gmail.com wrote:
On Thursday, February 13, 2020 at 11:16:22 AM UTC-8, Whoey Louie wrote:
On Tuesday, February 11, 2020 at 4:29:05 PM UTC-5, bitrex wrote:
On 2/11/20 1:07 AM, whit3rd wrote:
On Monday, February 10, 2020 at 9:10:19 AM UTC-8, edward...@gmail.com wrote:

Last week, researchers from the University of Hong Kong estimated 75,815 had been infected
in Wuhan as of Jan. 25 and projected the epidemic would double every 6.4 days.

That's the big reveal; the exponential growth time constant means that, unchecked,
the last uninfected region succumbs...in this calendar year. Too soon for a vaccine solution.

Cities are especially swift in transmission, and it started in a city, but this could easily
outpace the flu pandemic of 1918-1920 because there's more population in cities nowadays.


There's good evidence influenza can be spread by aerosol droplets
(airborne) but none so far that the coronavirus is spread other
than through close personal contact/large droplets.


What about the cruise ship docked in Japan? Over a couple weeks we've
watched the number of cases go from 16 to 200+. Were all those people
infected before they were quarantined to their rooms? Or is it
spreading somehow via the air system or somehow else.

One guy from HK flew to Japan, traveled to Yokohama, got on that ship
went with it back to HK and that's how 200+ would up getting it.

Another guy from UK, was in Singapore, he traveled to the French Alps,
then back to UK. He infected a dozen people in 3 countries.
Healthcare workers in China, using reasonable measures are being
infected. Sounds pretty easy to transmit to me.

That's why this virus is very dangerous. It's likely air-borne, can survive on external surfaces for many days,

No, not many days. Once again you state "facts" without support. I believe I read the virus can remain alive for around 24 hours in an infectious state.


https://www.sciencealert.com/study-shows-just-how-long-coronaviruses-can-stick-around-on-a-surface

New Study Indicates How Long Coronaviruses Can Survive on a Surface
CARLY CASSELLA13 FEB 2020
If the new coronavirus 2019-nCoV (now officially named COVID-19) is anything like its family members, a new study suggests it could survive on inanimate objects for well over a week. "


Now you'll say, but that isn't this paricular corona virus. The answer is,
no one knows for this virus, including the CDC, so looks like the above
is about the best we have at this point.






or hiding in carriers without synonyms. In another words, the virus can grow and multiply without triggering the immune system, but it can stiff infect others.

We need to learn as much as possible from China; so we know how to deal with it locally.

"Hiding"??? The issue of being infectious before displaying symptoms is not unusual with colds and flus.

Yes, but with the flu, from the time of infection to symptoms is a couple
of days. With Covid it's much longer, apparently up to 2 weeks.

https://healthengine.com.au/info/influenza-flu

"Healthy adults began shedding the flu virus one half to one day after they were exposed, with a sharp increase to peak shedding on the second day, followed by a rapid decline.Average duration of shedding is 4.8 days, though it continues for 10 days in some individuals."

"The incubation period (during which a person is infected with the virus but doesn’t experience any symptoms) is 1 to 3 days. Symptoms then start suddenly."

The new corona virus seems to have a longer incubation period - typically 7 to 10 days, with 14 days as a maximum. This does make for more effective transmission, but since the virus is going to be shed in smaller numbers over that period, it may not infect any more people.

So, if people are walking around, no symptoms, but spreading it, that's
a very big difference and reason for concern.

That's exactly how influenza works. The Spanish flu killed enough people to remind us that certain strains of flu can be decidedly dangerous, but the new corona virus isn't uniquely dangerous.

Are you following the quarantined cruise ship? They've been quarantined
for about ten days now and the number of cases is still rising rapidly.
One guy from HK was on that ship, now there are 200+ victims. Which
leads me to wonder if it's not spreading via the air system or similar.

The incubation time for the new corona virus is typically seven to ten days..

The number of new cases per day isn't rising, and the hypothesis that nobody has got infected since the ship went into lock-down isn't untenable.

The ship wasn't designed as an isolation ward, and the ship's staff aren't as meticulous about preventing cross-infections as medically trained people would be, so a few of the new cases could well reflect imperfect isolation..

I do agree that this is a serious illness that may well sweep the globe.. I agree that we need to learn as much about it as possible. I wish you would stop making up fake facts about the disease and discuss it rationally.. But after the discussion you had on EVs and charging I realize that is just not going to happen.

Seems to me he was discussing it rationally and not making it up.

He's a little too prone to quote alarmist hypotheses, and not say where they came from.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

 

[Bill Sloman]

On Friday, February 14, 2020 at 7:05:20 AM UTC+11, edward...@gmail.com wrote:

On Thursday, February 13, 2020 at 11:16:22 AM UTC-8, Whoey Louie wrote:
On Tuesday, February 11, 2020 at 4:29:05 PM UTC-5, bitrex wrote:
On 2/11/20 1:07 AM, whit3rd wrote:
On Monday, February 10, 2020 at 9:10:19 AM UTC-8, edward...@gmail.com wrote:

Last week, researchers from the University of Hong Kong estimated 75,815 had been infected
in Wuhan as of Jan. 25 and projected the epidemic would double every 6.4 days.

That's the big reveal; the exponential growth time constant means that, unchecked,
the last uninfected region succumbs...in this calendar year. Too soon for a vaccine solution.

Cities are especially swift in transmission, and it started in a city, but this could easily
outpace the flu pandemic of 1918-1920 because there's more population in cities nowadays.


There's good evidence influenza can be spread by aerosol droplets
(airborne) but none so far that the coronavirus is spread other
than through close personal contact/large droplets.


What about the cruise ship docked in Japan? Over a couple weeks we've
watched the number of cases go from 16 to 200+. Were all those people
infected before they were quarantined to their rooms? Or is it
spreading somehow via the air system or somehow else.

One guy from HK flew to Japan, traveled to Yokohama, got on that ship
went with it back to HK and that's how 200+ would up getting it.

Another guy from UK, was in Singapore, he traveled to the French Alps,
then back to UK. He infected a dozen people in 3 countries.
Healthcare workers in China, using reasonable measures are being
infected. Sounds pretty easy to transmit to me.

That's why this virus is very dangerous. It's likely air-borne, can survive on external surfaces for many days, or hiding in carriers without synonyms. In another words, the virus can grow and multiply without triggering the immune system, but it can still infect others.

It can't grow and multiply without triggering the immune system, but in the early stages the immune response isn't dramatic - so the patient doesn't feel sick, but does spread some virus.

The virus is too dumb to hide in carriers without causing any symptoms - it can't multiply without killing the cells it infects - but in the early stages of infection it isn't killing many cells or producing much in the way of symptoms or immune response.

The virus particles produced by the first cells infected are more likely to infect adjacent cells (which are handy) than to get exhaled and infect other people. If the virus has invented some kind of trick that stops it infecting new cells as soon as it is produced, it would be more effective at jumping to new hosts, and would be slower at making the original host visibly sick, but nobody has talked about that kind of innovation.

> We need to learn as much as possible from China; so we know how to deal with it locally.

Obviously. Virus labs in Australia have cultured the virus and sent samples off to other labs, The same sort of thing is going to be going on all over..

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

 

[Whoey Louie]

On Thursday, February 13, 2020 at 9:10:02 PM UTC-5, Bill Sloman wrote:

On Friday, February 14, 2020 at 7:05:20 AM UTC+11, edward...@gmail.com wrote:
On Thursday, February 13, 2020 at 11:16:22 AM UTC-8, Whoey Louie wrote:
On Tuesday, February 11, 2020 at 4:29:05 PM UTC-5, bitrex wrote:
On 2/11/20 1:07 AM, whit3rd wrote:
On Monday, February 10, 2020 at 9:10:19 AM UTC-8, edward...@gmail..com wrote:

Last week, researchers from the University of Hong Kong estimated 75,815 had been infected
in Wuhan as of Jan. 25 and projected the epidemic would double every 6.4 days.

That's the big reveal; the exponential growth time constant means that, unchecked,
the last uninfected region succumbs...in this calendar year. Too soon for a vaccine solution.

Cities are especially swift in transmission, and it started in a city, but this could easily
outpace the flu pandemic of 1918-1920 because there's more population in cities nowadays.


There's good evidence influenza can be spread by aerosol droplets
(airborne) but none so far that the coronavirus is spread other
than through close personal contact/large droplets.


What about the cruise ship docked in Japan? Over a couple weeks we've
watched the number of cases go from 16 to 200+. Were all those people
infected before they were quarantined to their rooms? Or is it
spreading somehow via the air system or somehow else.

One guy from HK flew to Japan, traveled to Yokohama, got on that ship
went with it back to HK and that's how 200+ would up getting it.

Another guy from UK, was in Singapore, he traveled to the French Alps,
then back to UK. He infected a dozen people in 3 countries.
Healthcare workers in China, using reasonable measures are being
infected. Sounds pretty easy to transmit to me.

That's why this virus is very dangerous. It's likely air-borne, can survive on external surfaces for many days, or hiding in carriers without synonyms. In another words, the virus can grow and multiply without triggering the immune system, but it can still infect others.

It can't grow and multiply without triggering the immune system, but in the early stages the immune response isn't dramatic - so the patient doesn't feel sick, but does spread some virus.

The virus is too dumb to hide in carriers without causing any symptoms - it can't multiply without killing the cells it infects - but in the early stages of infection it isn't killing many cells or producing much in the way of symptoms or immune response.

BS. Now you're a COVID expert too? It's only shown up in humans for
two months and you, unlike the world experts, have the answers?
There are viruses that produce no symptoms, or very mild symptoms.
Symptoms that could be anything.

The virus particles produced by the first cells infected are more likely to infect adjacent cells (which are handy) than to get exhaled and infect other people. If the virus has invented some kind of trick that stops it infecting new cells as soon as it is produced, it would be more effective at jumping to new hosts, and would be slower at making the original host visibly sick, but nobody has talked about that kind of innovation.

We need to learn as much as possible from China; so we know how to deal with it locally.

Obviously. Virus labs in Australia have cultured the virus and sent samples off to other labs, The same sort of thing is going to be going on all over.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

Has it killed any kangaroos yet?

 

[Rick C]

On Thursday, February 13, 2020 at 8:44:32 PM UTC-5, Bill Sloman wrote:

On Friday, February 14, 2020 at 2:19:07 AM UTC+11, Rick C wrote:
On Wednesday, February 12, 2020 at 8:54:03 PM UTC-5, Bill Sloman wrote:
On Thursday, February 13, 2020 at 11:54:30 AM UTC+11, edward...@gmail..com wrote:
What is the significance of this data?

They agree with my numbers now. The official number went up 30% overnight to 60,000.

snip

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

"Surge in number of cases and deaths due in most part to the adoption of a new diagnosis classification.

In conformity with other provinces, starting today, Hubei Province will include the number of clinically diagnosed cases into the number of confirmed cases.
Of the 14,840 cases added, 13,332 are due to the new classification while 1,508 are new cases."

That explains the jump in reported cases, but what about the reported deaths? That also has jumped. Were they not counting some deaths because they were not certain they were due to this new virus? So the death rate all along was higher than the numbers we've been seeing?

If the people that died hadn't tested positive for the new corona virus, they wouldn't have been reported as dying from it. Now that all it takes is cororna-virsus-like sysmptoms and contact with a person infected with corona virus, some people who have already died are being reclassifed as victims of the corona virus.

It's book-keeping, rather any increase in actual numbers of dead people.

Yes, the crematoriums are running day and night.

To be pedantic, I believe to be counted they require a CT scan. I'm pretty sure I read that. I guess that shows the fluid in the lungs which seems to be a major part of the illness.

"patients who showed symptoms of the disease and were diagnosed through CT scans of the lungs, for instance, but have not yet had laboratory testing"

Another page I saw said nothing about CT scans.

They may now be over reporting non-COVID-19 infections as COVID-19. But that might not be very large in comparison and so not much of an impact.

--

Rick C.

--- Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
--- Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

 

[Rick C]

On Thursday, February 13, 2020 at 9:36:20 PM UTC-5, Whoey Louie wrote:

On Thursday, February 13, 2020 at 9:33:19 PM UTC-5, Bill Sloman wrote:
On Friday, February 14, 2020 at 8:14:26 AM UTC+11, Whoey Louie wrote:
On Thursday, February 13, 2020 at 3:43:27 PM UTC-5, > > > One guy from HK was on that ship, now there are 200+ victims. Which
leads me to wonder if it's not spreading via the air system or similar.

The incubation time for the new corona virus is typically seven to ten days.

The number of new cases per day isn't rising,

That ranks among the dumbest things you've posted here so far.
Nuff said. It has an exponential growth curve.

You haven't been looking at the data. Until they change the reporting standard, the daily number of new cases had pretty much leveled off. Now that they are counting more cases from the new criteria it will be a few days before we can tell if the leveling is consistent. If so, it should not be long before the number of new cases starts dropping.

--

Rick C.

--+ Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
--+ Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

 

[Bill Sloman]

On Friday, February 14, 2020 at 1:36:20 PM UTC+11, Whoey Louie wrote:

On Thursday, February 13, 2020 at 9:33:19 PM UTC-5, Bill Sloman wrote:
On Friday, February 14, 2020 at 8:14:26 AM UTC+11, Whoey Louie wrote:
On Thursday, February 13, 2020 at 3:43:27 PM UTC-5, Rick C wrote:
On Thursday, February 13, 2020 at 3:05:20 PM UTC-5, edward...@gmail..com wrote:
On Thursday, February 13, 2020 at 11:16:22 AM UTC-8, Whoey Louie wrote:
On Tuesday, February 11, 2020 at 4:29:05 PM UTC-5, bitrex wrote:
On 2/11/20 1:07 AM, whit3rd wrote:
On Monday, February 10, 2020 at 9:10:19 AM UTC-8, edward...@gmail.com wrote:

<snip>

The number of new cases per day isn't rising,

That ranks among the dumbest things you've posted here so far.
Nuff said. It has an exponential growth curve.

Actually it doesn't. The number of new cases per day has to rise to qualify as an exponential growth curve.

A more technical response is that you can fit an exponential curve to anything you like. Real data is noisy and when you only have 218 cases in total, you can put pretty much any curve you like onto time series data and get some kind of fit.

The process of doing it right is called non-linear multi-parameter curve fitting, and - properly done - gives you confidence limits for each of the parameters you extract.

Doing it for the Diamond Princess would be particularly difficult, because what they report is data from the tests carried out in batches at the local hospital.

The data I can find lists ten case on 4th February, 41 on the 6th, 66 on the 9th and 39 on the 11th, which is 156 cases, while the highest total I can find is 219.

Claiming that the rise is "exponential" displays a lack of appreciation of what the word means.

Clearly, quite a few people got infected before the ship got locked down, probably over a couple of days, and what we are now seeing is them moving into the state where their symptoms are visible, and where they are sick enough warrant taking samples to be sent off to the hospital on shore.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

 

[Bill Sloman]

On Friday, February 14, 2020 at 1:34:11 PM UTC+11, Whoey Louie wrote:

On Thursday, February 13, 2020 at 9:10:02 PM UTC-5, Bill Sloman wrote:
On Friday, February 14, 2020 at 7:05:20 AM UTC+11, edward...@gmail.com wrote:
On Thursday, February 13, 2020 at 11:16:22 AM UTC-8, Whoey Louie wrote:
On Tuesday, February 11, 2020 at 4:29:05 PM UTC-5, bitrex wrote:
On 2/11/20 1:07 AM, whit3rd wrote:
On Monday, February 10, 2020 at 9:10:19 AM UTC-8, edward...@gmail.com wrote:

Last week, researchers from the University of Hong Kong estimated 75,815 had been infected
in Wuhan as of Jan. 25 and projected the epidemic would double every 6.4 days.

That's the big reveal; the exponential growth time constant means that, unchecked,
the last uninfected region succumbs...in this calendar year. Too soon for a vaccine solution.

Cities are especially swift in transmission, and it started in a city, but this could easily
outpace the flu pandemic of 1918-1920 because there's more population in cities nowadays.


There's good evidence influenza can be spread by aerosol droplets
(airborne) but none so far that the coronavirus is spread other
than through close personal contact/large droplets.


What about the cruise ship docked in Japan? Over a couple weeks we've
watched the number of cases go from 16 to 200+. Were all those people
infected before they were quarantined to their rooms? Or is it
spreading somehow via the air system or somehow else.

One guy from HK flew to Japan, traveled to Yokohama, got on that ship
went with it back to HK and that's how 200+ would up getting it.

Another guy from UK, was in Singapore, he traveled to the French Alps,
then back to UK. He infected a dozen people in 3 countries.
Healthcare workers in China, using reasonable measures are being
infected. Sounds pretty easy to transmit to me.

That's why this virus is very dangerous. It's likely air-borne, can survive on external surfaces for many days, or hiding in carriers without synonyms. In another words, the virus can grow and multiply without triggering the immune system, but it can still infect others.

It can't grow and multiply without triggering the immune system, but in the early stages the immune response isn't dramatic - so the patient doesn't feel sick, but does spread some virus.

The virus is too dumb to hide in carriers without causing any symptoms - it can't multiply without killing the cells it infects - but in the early stages of infection it isn't killing many cells or producing much in the way of symptoms or immune response.

BS. Now you're a COVID expert too?

It doesn't take any kind of expert to know that you don't know what you are talking about.

> It's only shown up in humans for two months and you, unlike the world experts, have the answers?

It's a new corona virus, not wilding different from the other corona viruses that have been making people sick sinc elong before what we knew what as virus was.

There are viruses that produce no symptoms, or very mild symptoms.
Symptoms that could be anything.

If they don't produce any symptoms, how do you find out that you are infected?
Virus testing isn't all that expensive, but nobody does it at random.

The virus particles produced by the first cells infected are more likely to infect adjacent cells (which are handy) than to get exhaled and infect other people. If the virus has invented some kind of trick that stops it infecting new cells as soon as it is produced, it would be more effective at jumping to new hosts, and would be slower at making the original host visibly sick, but nobody has talked about that kind of innovation.

We need to learn as much as possible from China; so we know how to deal with it locally.

Obviously. Virus labs in Australia have cultured the virus and sent samples off to other labs, The same sort of thing is going to be going on all over.

Has it killed any kangaroos yet?

Trust Whoey Louie to come up with a particularly moronic question. The corona virsuses are native to bats, which are quite a long way from us on the evolutionary tree, but even farther away from kangaroos. Very few coronona viruses make the jump from bats to other species, and the chance that they would make the jump to a particularly remote branch of the evolutionary tree is correspondingly small.

Of course, if they had, who would have bothered to look for evidence that it had happened? Apart form an idiot like Whoey Louie, of course, desperate to find some form of nation-based abuse.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

 

[Rick C]

On Friday, February 14, 2020 at 12:12:29 AM UTC-5, Bill Sloman wrote:

On Friday, February 14, 2020 at 1:34:11 PM UTC+11, Whoey Louie wrote:

There are viruses that produce no symptoms, or very mild symptoms.
Symptoms that could be anything.

If they don't produce any symptoms, how do you find out that you are infected?
Virus testing isn't all that expensive, but nobody does it at random.

There are some viruses that produce few symptoms in people with normal immune systems. The Red Cross likes my platelets because I'm cytomegalovirus free and these platlets are often given to people with suppressed immune systems and the disease for them can be much more dangerous.

Few people ever know they are infected with CMV because it has no symptoms normally. I only know I don't have it because the Red Cross checked for it and told me.

--

Rick C.

-+- Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
-+- Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

 

There are viruses that produce no symptoms, or very mild symptoms.
Symptoms that could be anything.

If they don't produce any symptoms, how do you find out that you are infected?
Virus testing isn't all that expensive, but nobody does it at random.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/01/31/health/coronavirus-asymptomatic-spread-study/index.html

 

On Friday, 14 February 2020 01:18:23 UTC, Rick C wrote:

On Thursday, February 13, 2020 at 4:34:23 PM UTC-5, tabby wrote:

Flying monkeys explained, in narcissism:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XOXhri6c4AA
I don't love some aspects of it but it explains the FM thing well.

Dude, Sloman isn't turning people against you.

I know. But he thinks he convinces folk with his bs.

> People already see and know who you are and have their own opinions. You are really reaching for this crap. I guess Bill got to you, eh? Kind of like JL. He can't stand being criticized so he kill files people. It's actually pretty funny if you think about it. Kill filing is pretty pathetic, but announcing that you've kill filed someone is downright juvenile.

no, it's quite practical, and not much to do with it

> Just ignore him if you don't like what he writes.

I generally do

> You seem like Trump and the media. They are wonderful when they say what he likes and when they don't they are the devil incarnate.

yawn

 

[whit3rd]

On Thursday, February 13, 2020 at 8:58:33 PM UTC-8, Bill Sloman wrote:

On Friday, February 14, 2020 at 1:36:20 PM UTC+11, Whoey Louie wrote:

... It has an exponential growth curve.

Actually it doesn't. The number of new cases per day has to rise to qualify as an exponential growth curve.

In the early days of the disease (when it wasn't recognized and no quarantines or closures
were in force) it DID have a period of exponential growth.

Intelligent folk implemented a variety of control and precautionary measures. The Donald
recommended cutting NIH funding.

 

[Tom Gardner]

On 14/02/20 02:36, Whoey Louie wrote:
> Nuff said. It has an exponential growth curve.

No, it doesn't.

If it did then the logarithmic graph would be a
straight line.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#coronavirus-cases-log

Since the gradient of that line is reducing over time,
it indicates that the growth is less than exponential.
That is comforting.

The significant increase in cases over the past couple
of days is due to a change in reporting technique.
The effect of the changed technique remains to be seen,
but the early result (singular) is encouraging.

 

[Tom Gardner]

On 14/02/20 02:34, Whoey Louie wrote:
> Has it killed any kangaroos yet?

A revealing question.

 

[Tom Gardner]

On 14/02/20 06:31, edward.ming.lee@gmail.com wrote:

There are viruses that produce no symptoms, or very mild symptoms.
Symptoms that could be anything.

If they don't produce any symptoms, how do you find out that you are infected?
Virus testing isn't all that expensive, but nobody does it at random.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/01/31/health/coronavirus-asymptomatic-spread-study/index.html

No news there. The same happens with all viruses.

 

[Bill Sloman]

On Friday, February 14, 2020 at 6:32:21 PM UTC+11, tabb...@gmail.com wrote:

On Friday, 14 February 2020 01:18:23 UTC, Rick C wrote:
On Thursday, February 13, 2020 at 4:34:23 PM UTC-5, tabby wrote:

Flying monkeys explained, in narcissism:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XOXhri6c4AA
I don't love some aspects of it but it explains the FM thing well.

Dude, Sloman isn't turning people against you.

I know. But he thinks he convinces folk with his bs.

I haven't seen much sign of it.

I wonder how many converts NT thinks he has got.

People already see and know who you are and have their own opinions. You are really reaching for this crap. I guess Bill got to you, eh? Kind of like JL. He can't stand being criticized so he kill files people. It's actually pretty funny if you think about it. Kill filing is pretty pathetic, but announcing that you've kill filed someone is downright juvenile.

no, it's quite practical, and not much to do with it.

Kill filing is perfectly practical, but sane people don't need to bother.

Just ignore him if you don't like what he writes.

I generally do

You seem like Trump and the media. They are wonderful when they say what he likes and when they don't they are the devil incarnate.

yawn.

NT likes to pretend he is above criticism, in the same way he likes to pretend that he knows what he is talking about. It's a waste of time in both cases, but he takes the trouble to maintain the pretense.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

 

[Whoey Louie]

On Thursday, February 13, 2020 at 9:33:19 PM UTC-5, Bill Sloman wrote:

On Friday, February 14, 2020 at 8:14:26 AM UTC+11, Whoey Louie wrote:
On Thursday, February 13, 2020 at 3:43:27 PM UTC-5, Rick C wrote:
On Thursday, February 13, 2020 at 3:05:20 PM UTC-5, edward...@gmail.com wrote:
On Thursday, February 13, 2020 at 11:16:22 AM UTC-8, Whoey Louie wrote:
On Tuesday, February 11, 2020 at 4:29:05 PM UTC-5, bitrex wrote:
On 2/11/20 1:07 AM, whit3rd wrote:
On Monday, February 10, 2020 at 9:10:19 AM UTC-8, edward...@gmail.com wrote:

Last week, researchers from the University of Hong Kong estimated 75,815 had been infected
in Wuhan as of Jan. 25 and projected the epidemic would double every 6.4 days.

That's the big reveal; the exponential growth time constant means that, unchecked,
the last uninfected region succumbs...in this calendar year. Too soon for a vaccine solution.

Cities are especially swift in transmission, and it started in a city, but this could easily
outpace the flu pandemic of 1918-1920 because there's more population in cities nowadays.


There's good evidence influenza can be spread by aerosol droplets
(airborne) but none so far that the coronavirus is spread other
than through close personal contact/large droplets.


What about the cruise ship docked in Japan? Over a couple weeks we've
watched the number of cases go from 16 to 200+. Were all those people
infected before they were quarantined to their rooms? Or is it
spreading somehow via the air system or somehow else.

One guy from HK flew to Japan, traveled to Yokohama, got on that ship
went with it back to HK and that's how 200+ would up getting it.

Another guy from UK, was in Singapore, he traveled to the French Alps,
then back to UK. He infected a dozen people in 3 countries.
Healthcare workers in China, using reasonable measures are being
infected. Sounds pretty easy to transmit to me.

That's why this virus is very dangerous. It's likely air-borne, can survive on external surfaces for many days,

No, not many days. Once again you state "facts" without support. I believe I read the virus can remain alive for around 24 hours in an infectious state.


https://www.sciencealert.com/study-shows-just-how-long-coronaviruses-can-stick-around-on-a-surface

New Study Indicates How Long Coronaviruses Can Survive on a Surface
CARLY CASSELLA13 FEB 2020
If the new coronavirus 2019-nCoV (now officially named COVID-19) is anything like its family members, a new study suggests it could survive on inanimate objects for well over a week. "


Now you'll say, but that isn't this paricular corona virus. The answer is,
no one knows for this virus, including the CDC, so looks like the above
is about the best we have at this point.






or hiding in carriers without synonyms. In another words, the virus can grow and multiply without triggering the immune system, but it can stiff infect others.

We need to learn as much as possible from China; so we know how to deal with it locally.

"Hiding"??? The issue of being infectious before displaying symptoms is not unusual with colds and flus.

Yes, but with the flu, from the time of infection to symptoms is a couple
of days. With Covid it's much longer, apparently up to 2 weeks.

https://healthengine.com.au/info/influenza-flu

"Healthy adults began shedding the flu virus one half to one day after they were exposed, with a sharp increase to peak shedding on the second day, followed by a rapid decline.Average duration of shedding is 4.8 days, though it continues for 10 days in some individuals."

"The incubation period (during which a person is infected with the virus but doesn’t experience any symptoms) is 1 to 3 days. Symptoms then start suddenly."

The new corona virus seems to have a longer incubation period - typically 7 to 10 days, with 14 days as a maximum. This does make for more effective transmission, but since the virus is going to be shed in smaller numbers over that period, it may not infect any more people.

So, if people are walking around, no symptoms, but spreading it, that's
a very big difference and reason for concern.

That's exactly how influenza works. The Spanish flu killed enough people to remind us that certain strains of flu can be decidedly dangerous, but the new corona virus isn't uniquely dangerous.

Are you following the quarantined cruise ship? They've been quarantined
for about ten days now and the number of cases is still rising rapidly.
One guy from HK was on that ship, now there are 200+ victims. Which
leads me to wonder if it's not spreading via the air system or similar.

The incubation time for the new corona virus is typically seven to ten days.

The number of new cases per day isn't rising, and the hypothesis that nobody has got infected since the ship went into lock-down isn't untenable.

Wrong again.

"An additional 44 cases of the illness were identified on the Diamond Princess on Thursday, bringing the total number of infections to 218. That accounts for more than one third of all cases detected outside mainland China."

The ship wasn't designed as an isolation ward,

But the people are confined to their rooms, and with 41 new cases showing
up yesterday, it's beginning to look like it may be spreading anyway.
Which would mean it's more easily transmitted than thought. Also,
someone probably should ask Japan why they are not in more appropriate
locations.



and the ship's staff aren't as meticulous about preventing cross-infections as medically trained people would be,

WTF? The freaking boat isn't floating in the middle of the ocean.
It's docked in Japan, that has the proper resources and medically trained
people. Are you some kind of racist?

 

[Whoey Louie]

On Thursday, February 13, 2020 at 9:56:44 PM UTC-5, Rick C wrote:

On Thursday, February 13, 2020 at 9:36:20 PM UTC-5, Whoey Louie wrote:
On Thursday, February 13, 2020 at 9:33:19 PM UTC-5, Bill Sloman wrote:
On Friday, February 14, 2020 at 8:14:26 AM UTC+11, Whoey Louie wrote:
On Thursday, February 13, 2020 at 3:43:27 PM UTC-5, > > > One guy from HK was on that ship, now there are 200+ victims. Which
leads me to wonder if it's not spreading via the air system or similar.

The incubation time for the new corona virus is typically seven to ten days.

The number of new cases per day isn't rising,

That ranks among the dumbest things you've posted here so far.
Nuff said. It has an exponential growth curve.

You haven't been looking at the data. Until they change the reporting standard, the daily number of new cases had pretty much leveled off.

That's a lie.

Coronavirus live updates: Cases rise to more than 65,000 ...
https://www.cnn.com › live-news › coronavirus-outbreak-02-14-20-intl-hnk
31 mins ago - Mainland China has recorded 5090 more cases of the novel coronavirus, under its new broader definition, bringing the global total to 64435.

That's today and there was no change today in how they report. That's
a growth of 8% in one day!




Now that they are counting more cases from the new criteria it will be a few days before we can tell if the leveling is consistent. If so, it should not be long before the number of new cases starts dropping.
>

Oh, BS.

 

[Jasen Betts]

On 2020-02-14, Whoey Louie <trader4@optonline.net> wrote:

On Thursday, February 13, 2020 at 9:33:19 PM UTC-5, Bill Sloman wrote:

The incubation time for the new corona virus is typically seven to ten days.

The number of new cases per day isn't rising, and the hypothesis that nobody has got infected since the ship went into lock-down isn't untenable.

Wrong again.

"An additional 44 cases of the illness were identified on the Diamond Princess on Thursday, bringing the total number of infections to 218. That accounts for more than one third of all cases detected outside mainland China."



The ship wasn't designed as an isolation ward,

But the people are confined to their rooms, and with 41 new cases showing
up yesterday, it's beginning to look like it may be spreading anyway.
Which would mean it's more easily transmitted than thought. Also,
someone probably should ask Japan why they are not in more appropriate
locations.

The centre of a harbour under anchor and flying a yellow jack is the
normal location for a quarrantined ship. They are not at this more
apropriate location becuase Japan can spare the resources to have them
dockside.



--
Jasen.