OT: more from the resident alarmist

Ok, in another post you said you posted links from the mainstream media to support your conclusions. Here is my reply to that claim.


On Monday, February 10, 2020 at 12:10:19 PM UTC-5, edward...@gmail.com wrote:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/annashedletsky/2020/02/07/coronavirus-hits-electronics-manufacturing-hard-companies-are-scrambling/#75d2b797369c

(Electronic) Factories have been shut down as part of the unprecedented extended Lunar New Year,
which was supposed to end on January 30, and has now been extended until February 9
(not a chance) at the earliest.
(local government requires 14 days quarantine after reporting to factory)

Yes, we could have told you a year ago that the factories would be shut down. We don't need a news flash for that. They also announced weeks ago that they would be extending the shutdowns and canceling many activities that bring people together. Exactly what you would expect during an outbreak of nearly any disease you want to stop. So what idea of yours is this supporting exactly?

It seems that it is actually common for some portion of the workers to not return after the holiday.

"In a normal year, factories typically expect that only 80-85% of their workforce will return after Lunar New Year, as many workers are actually from distant regions of the country."

So this really seems like a non-news event when talking about the severity of the disease rather than the impact.


https://www.wsj.com/articles/coronavirus-cases-on-cruise-ship-climb-to-136-11581322993

Coronavirus Cases on Cruise Ship Climb to 135
(they need more flesh air)
(should sent the ship to warmer climate, Australia?)

We have been hearing about Coronaviruses on cruise ships for weeks now. Most are precautionary measures being taken to prevent the spread of the disease. Many stories are about how crappy it is to be stuck on a floating hospital while sequestered to your room. Again, where's the news?


https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/08/health/coronavirus-hospital-infections-frieden/index.html

A study published Friday in the medical journal JAMA found that 41% of the first 138 patients
diagnosed at one hospital in Wuhan, China, were presumed to be infected in that hospital.
(3000 patients in newly built medical concentration camps will probably all die)

I've read this article several times on my phone. Nothing exciting there. Hospitals often are places to catch disease rather than being cured. Ever hear of MRSA? Many hospitals routinely swap incoming and outgoing patients for this so they can track nosocomial infections.

Notice your use of the word "first" patients. That's because they have improved their procedures.

Your final statement about 3000 patients of a newly build hospital all dying is unfounded.


https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/health/2020/02/06/coronavirus-wuhan-china-recurring-winter-illness-flu/4665482002/

Last week, researchers from the University of Hong Kong estimated 75,815 had been infected
in Wuhan as of Jan. 25 and projected the epidemic would double every 6.4 days.

Yes, a lot of the "infected" statistic is estimated because for some people the disease is pretty much like a cold and is not reported to hospitals and not counted. The exact number is not important when trying to prevent a pandemic. Consistently measured numbers is important for comparison. So don't compare the university numbers with the government numbers.


https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20200210-coronavirus-finding-a-cure-to-fight-the-symptoms

Donnelly and her colleagues have estimated the new coronavirus to have a
reproduction number of about 2.6

Not really important if you isolate people. Are you aware that the flu kills 10's of thousands of people in the US each year? The reproduction number for flu viruses are between 1 and 4.


--- conservative estimates ---

W0 W1 W2 W3 W4 W5 W6
R0 12/30 1/6 1/13 1/20 1/27 2/3 2/10
WH 2.0 41 192 905 2766 13004 26008 52017
LS 1.8 180 324 583 1049
RS 1.8 197 354 638 1148
RW 1.8 137 246 443 798
G2 1.8 1120 2016 3628 6531
SH 1.5 98 147 220 330
BJ 1.5 113 169 254 381
HK 1.8 17 30
JP 1.5 100 150
US 1.5 11 16

Assumptions:
Ro for W0 to W3 was 4.7
35% spreaded from G0 (Ground 0) to G1 and G2
G0 is saturated, so actual infection rate is capped
G0 daily cremation of 1500, 40% from hospital, 60% from home
G1 (RS, RW, LS) are almost saturated
G2 is rest of China
MP Miltary police and army are not included

What is the significance of this data? Why are you so obsessed with this disease and not other diseases which are much more likely to kill you?

--

Rick C.

+ Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
+ Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209
 
On Wednesday, 12 February 2020 19:51:16 UTC, Rick C wrote:
On Wednesday, February 12, 2020 at 6:20:15 AM UTC-5, tabby wrote:

lol, arguing with him is a waste of time. He's spent most of his life coming up with manipulative bs responses.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qve6Ug-qzPY

Interesting video. I dated a lady once who had an anxiety disorder. I tried to deal with it for some time as I really liked her when the anxiety wasn't in force. But eventually she hit a rough patch and I kept trying to help her through it by reasoning with her. While in small doses anxiety can be reasoned away, in larger does reason has no effect. The anxiety disorder is just that, a disorder that is not rational. In the end it became too much for me to handle obliquely and I tried flat out telling her this was her anxiety disorder and she needed to take more of her medicine. I think at that point I fit the video definition of a toxic person. In the end I had to leave. If it was toxic to her, it was even more toxic to me.

One could say that everyone on earth is lost in their bs, in that failure to understand something is what keeps everyone from being more/better/etc than they are, what limits us.


> The fact that someone criticizes you does not automatically mean the problem is them.

obviously :)

> Using a label like "toxic" is not automatically insightful.

Sometimes it's just people not wanting to get real about their own stuff. There aren't nearly as many reliable generalisations as people generally like to think :)


NT
 
On Wednesday, 12 February 2020 19:46:41 UTC, whit3rd wrote:
On Wednesday, February 12, 2020 at 3:20:15 AM UTC-8, tabby wrote:

lol, arguing with him is a waste of time. He's spent most of his life coming up with....

Actually, a valid argument isn't 'with him' at all, it can stand as a useful guide to all who
read here. Your problem (contention) wouldn't exist if your arguments were valid.

They are valid. Sloman loves his bs comebacks. It's just time wasting. I expect most see it for what it is but I've seen folk take them seriously at times.
 
On Thursday, February 13, 2020 at 8:08:15 AM UTC+11, tabb...@gmail.com wrote:
On Wednesday, 12 February 2020 19:46:41 UTC, whit3rd wrote:
On Wednesday, February 12, 2020 at 3:20:15 AM UTC-8, tabby wrote:

lol, arguing with him is a waste of time. He's spent most of his life coming up with....

Actually, a valid argument isn't 'with him' at all, it can stand as a useful guide to all who read here. Your problem (contention) wouldn't exist if your arguments were valid.

They are valid.

In NT's less-than-impartial opinion. He doesn't like being told that his arguments are invalid, which comes with not having enough sense to realise that they were invalid when he posted them.

> Sloman loves his bs comebacks. It's just time wasting.

NT comes here to pose as a well-informed advice giver. That really is a waste of his time - but he hasn't got enough sense to realise that he is actually a pretentious clown, and feels hurt when he gets jeered at.

> I expect most see it for what it is but I've seen folk take them seriously at times.

He hopes that other deluded twits will share his pain at being shown up.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney
 
> What is the significance of this data?

They agree with my numbers now. The official number went up 30% overnight to 60,000.

W0 W1 W2 W3 W4 W5 W6
R0 12/30 1/6 1/13 1/20 1/27 2/3 2/10
G0 2.0 41 192 905 2766 13004 26008 52017
LS 1.8 180 324 583 1049
RS 1.8 197 354 638 1148
RW 1.8 137 246 443 798
G2 1.8 1120 2016 3628 6531
SH 1.5 98 147 220 330
BJ 1.5 113 169 254 381
CT 1.8 500 900 1620 2916
HK 2.5 17 42
JP 1.5 21 31
SG 1.9 24 45
US 1.5 11 16
DP 1.5 80 120

Assumptions:
+--- China --\ Ro for W0 to W3 was 4.7
| BJ | 35% spreaded from G0 (Ground 0) to G1 and G2
| RS SH | JP G0 is saturated, so actual infection rate is capped
|WW G0 RW / G0 daily cremation of 1500, 40% hospital, 60% home
| LS / G1 (RS, RW, LS) are almost saturated
| / TW G2 is rest of China
| CT / DP is Diamond Princess (not in JP)
\-------/ MP Miltary police and army are not included
HK SG TL

Average daily increase %
+-- 24 hrs --\ +-- 7 days --\
| 2 | 9 | 1 | 9
| 5 3 | | 5 1 |
| 8 9 4 / | 5 9 6 /
| 9 / | 9 /
| 1 / 0 | 4 / 2
| 3 / | 9 /
\--------/ \--------/
2 0 0 9 9 4
 
On Thursday, February 13, 2020 at 8:13:03 AM UTC+11, tabb...@gmail.com wrote:
On Wednesday, 12 February 2020 19:51:16 UTC, Rick C wrote:
On Wednesday, February 12, 2020 at 6:20:15 AM UTC-5, tabby wrote:

lol, arguing with him is a waste of time. He's spent most of his life coming up with manipulative bs responses.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qve6Ug-qzPY

Interesting video. I dated a lady once who had an anxiety disorder. I tried to deal with it for some time as I really liked her when the anxiety wasn't in force. But eventually she hit a rough patch and I kept trying to help her through it by reasoning with her. While in small doses anxiety can be reasoned away, in larger does reason has no effect. The anxiety disorder is just that, a disorder that is not rational. In the end it became too much for me to handle obliquely and I tried flat out telling her this was her anxiety disorder and she needed to take more of her medicine. I think at that point I fit the video definition of a toxic person. In the end I had to leave. If it was toxic to her, it was even more toxic to me.

One could say that everyone on earth is lost in their bs, in that failure to understand something is what keeps everyone from being more/better/etc than they are, what limits us.

Some people spend a lot more time propagating fatuous delusions than others..
They tend to be less good at less recognising valid criticism too. Anybody who hasn't admitted that they once got something wrong is likely to be a member of that group.

The fact that someone criticizes you does not automatically mean the problem is them.

obviously :)

Using a label like "toxic" is not automatically insightful.

Sometimes it's just people not wanting to get real about their own stuff. There aren't nearly as many reliable generalisations as people generally like to think :)

The proposition that NT frequently doesn't know what he is talking about is pretty reliable.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney
 
On Thursday, February 13, 2020 at 11:54:30 AM UTC+11, edward...@gmail.com wrote:
What is the significance of this data?

They agree with my numbers now. The official number went up 30% overnight to 60,000.

<snip>

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

"Surge in number of cases and deaths due in most part to the adoption of a new diagnosis classification.

In conformity with other provinces, starting today, Hubei Province will include the number of clinically diagnosed cases into the number of confirmed cases.
Of the 14,840 cases added, 13,332 are due to the new classification while 1,508 are new cases."

1508 is actually a relatively low number of new case, down from 2071 the previous day and 2566 the day before that.

This wipes out the usefulness of the graph of reported cases against time which is the unique selling point of the Worldometer web-page.

Essentially, the graph is now reporting different numbers, and they should have started a new graph. Within a few days the new numbers will most likely be visibly reporting that there aren't a many new infections every day as there were on the previous day, because the lock-down that is working in Hubei should work just as well in adjacent provinces.

You can change R0 by changing people's behaviour, and the story from Hubei Province is that the Chinese regime has changed it enough there to get a consistent decline in the number of new infections every day there. Sadly, we can't rely on every province being as effective.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney
 
On Wednesday, 12 February 2020 20:54:03 UTC-5, Bill Sloman wrote:
On Thursday, February 13, 2020 at 11:54:30 AM UTC+11, edward...@gmail.com wrote:
What is the significance of this data?

They agree with my numbers now. The official number went up 30% overnight to 60,000.

snip

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

"Surge in number of cases and deaths due in most part to the adoption of a new diagnosis classification.

In conformity with other provinces, starting today, Hubei Province will include the number of clinically diagnosed cases into the number of confirmed cases.
Of the 14,840 cases added, 13,332 are due to the new classification while 1,508 are new cases."

1508 is actually a relatively low number of new case, down from 2071 the previous day and 2566 the day before that.

This wipes out the usefulness of the graph of reported cases against time which is the unique selling point of the Worldometer web-page.

Essentially, the graph is now reporting different numbers, and they should have started a new graph. Within a few days the new numbers will most likely be visibly reporting that there aren't a many new infections every day as there were on the previous day, because the lock-down that is working in Hubei should work just as well in adjacent provinces.

You can change R0 by changing people's behaviour, and the story from Hubei Province is that the Chinese regime has changed it enough there to get a consistent decline in the number of new infections every day there. Sadly, we can't rely on every province being as effective.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

Hi, Bill:-

I have been following this with some interest. My concern level has been dropping for a couple weeks now.

The rate of increase peaked about a week ago at more than 8,500 new >confirmed
PLUS suspected< cases per day, and it's been decreasing since then, it's down to
about 5,200 per day. The total will peak soon, maybe as soon as a week from now, barring multiple major reversals. The classification of 'confirmed' in Hubei was relaxed to not require an actual nucleic acid test, only contact+symptoms+CT so a whole bunch of cases in Hubei province got transferred from 'suspected' to 'confirmed', but the overall trend remains downward (2nd derivative is negative).

That's not to say that things are all fine in Hubei- it's a public health
emergency and is being dealt with as such. The hospitals are overwhelmed
and the number of deaths indicates that they have not, to date, been keeping up.
By official count, there are 30,000+ pneumonia cases in Wuhan alone, which is a lot for any city. But the fairly draconian Chinese travel restrictions have worked in that they've slowed the spread enough to be able to handle patients outside Hubei.

Outside of China AND in the 96% of China that is not Hubei the
number of deaths is small, and the rate of increase is not large (appears to be dropping in net cases in many places), so I think it's going to work out okay. Like a bad flu year - eg. the 2009-2010 American swine flu epidemic dwarfs it- more than 250,000 deaths worldwide as a result (would sealing off cities have prevented some of those?). Right now 20% of the confirmed cases are outside Hubei but only 5% of the deaths. The worst-hit city outside has fewer than 500 cases and the next worse fewer than 400. Not good, but not terrible.

The economic effect will probably be short-term, but that remains to be seen.
Manufacturing is not an easy enterprise and even a single small part being
delayed is a problem. They normally restart the whole machine in fits and starts as workers return from all over the country after the LNY break, this time is going to be a bit more challenging for them, especially a supplier had a lot of employees visiting home in the wrong province. Some are back now, a lot more due on Monday.

Best Regards,
Spehro Pefhany
 
On Thursday, February 13, 2020 at 6:16:16 PM UTC+11, speff wrote:
On Wednesday, 12 February 2020 20:54:03 UTC-5, Bill Sloman wrote:
On Thursday, February 13, 2020 at 11:54:30 AM UTC+11, edward...@gmail.com wrote:
What is the significance of this data?

They agree with my numbers now. The official number went up 30% overnight to 60,000.

snip

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

"Surge in number of cases and deaths due in most part to the adoption of a new diagnosis classification.

In conformity with other provinces, starting today, Hubei Province will include the number of clinically diagnosed cases into the number of confirmed cases.
Of the 14,840 cases added, 13,332 are due to the new classification while 1,508 are new cases."

1508 is actually a relatively low number of new case, down from 2071 the previous day and 2566 the day before that.

This wipes out the usefulness of the graph of reported cases against time which is the unique selling point of the Worldometer web-page.

Essentially, the graph is now reporting different numbers, and they should have started a new graph. Within a few days the new numbers will most likely be visibly reporting that there aren't a many new infections every day as there were on the previous day, because the lock-down that is working in Hubei should work just as well in adjacent provinces.

You can change R0 by changing people's behaviour, and the story from Hubei Province is that the Chinese regime has changed it enough there to get a consistent decline in the number of new infections every day there. Sadly, we can't rely on every province being as effective.

Hi, Bill:-

I have been following this with some interest. My concern level has been dropping for a couple weeks now.

I've been relying on the

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

graphs to get a feel for what's been going on, and that shifted from an exponential curve to a logistic curve about a week ago, which was decidedly comforting.

You have much better contacts in China than most westerners, and I'm glad to hear that you got the message even earlier.

> The rate of increase peaked about a week ago at more than 8,500 new confirmed PLUS suspected< cases per day, and it's been decreasing since then - it's down to about 5,200 per day. The total will peak soon, maybe as soon as a week from now, barring multiple major reversals.

At the moment the numbers are dominated by Hubei province, and it still could be taking off somewhere else, though it sounds as if the whole of China is taking it seriously.

The classification of 'confirmed' in Hubei was relaxed to not require an actual nucleic acid test, only contact+symptoms+CT so a whole bunch of cases in Hubei province got transferred from 'suspected' to 'confirmed', but the overall trend remains downward (2nd derivative is negative).

That's not to say that things are all fine in Hubei- it's a public health emergency and is being dealt with as such. The hospitals are overwhelmed and the number of deaths indicates that they have not, to date, been keeping up.

The Spanish flu created the same kinds of problems around the world when it hit. So far it looks as if we are doing better.

By official count, there are 30,000+ pneumonia cases in Wuhan alone, which is a lot for any city. But the fairly draconian Chinese travel restrictions have worked in that they've slowed the spread enough to be able to handle patients outside Hubei.

Outside of China AND in the 96% of China that is not Hubei the
number of deaths is small, and the rate of increase is not large (appears to be dropping in net cases in many places), so I think it's going to work out okay. Like a bad flu year - eg. the 2009-2010 American swine flu epidemic dwarfs it- more than 250,000 deaths worldwide as a result (would sealing off cities have prevented some of those?). Right now 20% of the confirmed cases are outside Hubei but only 5% of the deaths. The worst-hit city outside has fewer than 500 cases and the next worse fewer than 400. Not good, but not terrible.

Deaths are a lagging indicator. The WorldoMeters graph of deaths doesn't look exponential any more, but the rate of increase has yet to actually slow down.

The economic effect will probably be short-term, but that remains to be seen.
Manufacturing is not an easy enterprise and even a single small part being
delayed is a problem. They normally restart the whole machine in fits and starts as workers return from all over the country after the LNY break. This time is going to be a bit more challenging for them, especially if a supplier had a lot of employees visiting home in the wrong province. Some are back now, a lot more due on Monday.

It's clearly throwing a spanner in the works. It could have been a lot worse, and perhaps it still could be, but it now looks more like a stumble than a face-plant.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney
 
On Wednesday, February 12, 2020 at 8:54:03 PM UTC-5, Bill Sloman wrote:
On Thursday, February 13, 2020 at 11:54:30 AM UTC+11, edward...@gmail.com wrote:
What is the significance of this data?

They agree with my numbers now. The official number went up 30% overnight to 60,000.

snip

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

"Surge in number of cases and deaths due in most part to the adoption of a new diagnosis classification.

In conformity with other provinces, starting today, Hubei Province will include the number of clinically diagnosed cases into the number of confirmed cases.
Of the 14,840 cases added, 13,332 are due to the new classification while 1,508 are new cases."

That explains the jump in reported cases, but what about the reported deaths? That also has jumped. Were they not counting some deaths because they were not certain they were due to this new virus? So the death rate all along was higher than the numbers we've been seeing?

--

Rick C.

-- Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
-- Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209
 
On Thursday, February 13, 2020 at 7:19:07 AM UTC-8, Rick C wrote:
On Wednesday, February 12, 2020 at 8:54:03 PM UTC-5, Bill Sloman wrote:
On Thursday, February 13, 2020 at 11:54:30 AM UTC+11, edward...@gmail.com wrote:
What is the significance of this data?

They agree with my numbers now. The official number went up 30% overnight to 60,000.

snip

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

"Surge in number of cases and deaths due in most part to the adoption of a new diagnosis classification.

In conformity with other provinces, starting today, Hubei Province will include the number of clinically diagnosed cases into the number of confirmed cases.
Of the 14,840 cases added, 13,332 are due to the new classification while 1,508 are new cases."

That explains the jump in reported cases, but what about the reported deaths? That also has jumped. Were they not counting some deaths because they were not certain they were due to this new virus? So the death rate all along was higher than the numbers we've been seeing?

One of the reason is that Xi ordered people back to work. Don't know how that's going to work with public transits also shutdown at the same time. So, with more movements, infected and death rates are both going up.

Xi reasoning is that it's better to have some people dying from the virus, than most people suffering from economic set backs. Of course, he and his elites are the most affected by the economic down-turn.
 
On Thursday, February 13, 2020 at 11:13:56 AM UTC-5, edward...@gmail.com wrote:
On Thursday, February 13, 2020 at 7:19:07 AM UTC-8, Rick C wrote:
On Wednesday, February 12, 2020 at 8:54:03 PM UTC-5, Bill Sloman wrote:
On Thursday, February 13, 2020 at 11:54:30 AM UTC+11, edward...@gmail..com wrote:
What is the significance of this data?

They agree with my numbers now. The official number went up 30% overnight to 60,000.

snip

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

"Surge in number of cases and deaths due in most part to the adoption of a new diagnosis classification.

In conformity with other provinces, starting today, Hubei Province will include the number of clinically diagnosed cases into the number of confirmed cases.
Of the 14,840 cases added, 13,332 are due to the new classification while 1,508 are new cases."

That explains the jump in reported cases, but what about the reported deaths? That also has jumped. Were they not counting some deaths because they were not certain they were due to this new virus? So the death rate all along was higher than the numbers we've been seeing?

One of the reason is that Xi ordered people back to work. Don't know how that's going to work with public transits also shutdown at the same time. So, with more movements, infected and death rates are both going up.

Xi reasoning is that it's better to have some people dying from the virus, than most people suffering from economic set backs. Of course, he and his elites are the most affected by the economic down-turn.

They also just declared war time powers and food rationing. IDK how
that fits in to it all.
 
On Tuesday, February 11, 2020 at 4:29:05 PM UTC-5, bitrex wrote:
On 2/11/20 1:07 AM, whit3rd wrote:
On Monday, February 10, 2020 at 9:10:19 AM UTC-8, edward...@gmail.com wrote:

Last week, researchers from the University of Hong Kong estimated 75,815 had been infected
in Wuhan as of Jan. 25 and projected the epidemic would double every 6.4 days.

That's the big reveal; the exponential growth time constant means that, unchecked,
the last uninfected region succumbs...in this calendar year. Too soon for a vaccine solution.

Cities are especially swift in transmission, and it started in a city, but this could easily
outpace the flu pandemic of 1918-1920 because there's more population in cities nowadays.


There's good evidence influenza can be spread by aerosol droplets
(airborne) but none so far that the coronavirus is spread other
than through close personal contact/large droplets.

What about the cruise ship docked in Japan? Over a couple weeks we've
watched the number of cases go from 16 to 200+. Were all those people
infected before they were quarantined to their rooms? Or is it
spreading somehow via the air system or somehow else.

One guy from HK flew to Japan, traveled to Yokohama, got on that ship
went with it back to HK and that's how 200+ would up getting it.

Another guy from UK, was in Singapore, he traveled to the French Alps,
then back to UK. He infected a dozen people in 3 countries.
Healthcare workers in China, using reasonable measures are being
infected. Sounds pretty easy to transmit to me.
 
On Thursday, February 13, 2020 at 11:16:22 AM UTC-8, Whoey Louie wrote:
On Tuesday, February 11, 2020 at 4:29:05 PM UTC-5, bitrex wrote:
On 2/11/20 1:07 AM, whit3rd wrote:
On Monday, February 10, 2020 at 9:10:19 AM UTC-8, edward...@gmail.com wrote:

Last week, researchers from the University of Hong Kong estimated 75,815 had been infected
in Wuhan as of Jan. 25 and projected the epidemic would double every 6.4 days.

That's the big reveal; the exponential growth time constant means that, unchecked,
the last uninfected region succumbs...in this calendar year. Too soon for a vaccine solution.

Cities are especially swift in transmission, and it started in a city, but this could easily
outpace the flu pandemic of 1918-1920 because there's more population in cities nowadays.


There's good evidence influenza can be spread by aerosol droplets
(airborne) but none so far that the coronavirus is spread other
than through close personal contact/large droplets.


What about the cruise ship docked in Japan? Over a couple weeks we've
watched the number of cases go from 16 to 200+. Were all those people
infected before they were quarantined to their rooms? Or is it
spreading somehow via the air system or somehow else.

One guy from HK flew to Japan, traveled to Yokohama, got on that ship
went with it back to HK and that's how 200+ would up getting it.

Another guy from UK, was in Singapore, he traveled to the French Alps,
then back to UK. He infected a dozen people in 3 countries.
Healthcare workers in China, using reasonable measures are being
infected. Sounds pretty easy to transmit to me.

That's why this virus is very dangerous. It's likely air-borne, can survive on external surfaces for many days, or hiding in carriers without synonyms. In another words, the virus can grow and multiply without triggering the immune system, but it can stiff infect others.

We need to learn as much as possible from China; so we know how to deal with it locally.
 
On Thursday, February 13, 2020 at 3:05:20 PM UTC-5, edward...@gmail.com wrote:
On Thursday, February 13, 2020 at 11:16:22 AM UTC-8, Whoey Louie wrote:
On Tuesday, February 11, 2020 at 4:29:05 PM UTC-5, bitrex wrote:
On 2/11/20 1:07 AM, whit3rd wrote:
On Monday, February 10, 2020 at 9:10:19 AM UTC-8, edward...@gmail.com wrote:

Last week, researchers from the University of Hong Kong estimated 75,815 had been infected
in Wuhan as of Jan. 25 and projected the epidemic would double every 6.4 days.

That's the big reveal; the exponential growth time constant means that, unchecked,
the last uninfected region succumbs...in this calendar year. Too soon for a vaccine solution.

Cities are especially swift in transmission, and it started in a city, but this could easily
outpace the flu pandemic of 1918-1920 because there's more population in cities nowadays.


There's good evidence influenza can be spread by aerosol droplets
(airborne) but none so far that the coronavirus is spread other
than through close personal contact/large droplets.


What about the cruise ship docked in Japan? Over a couple weeks we've
watched the number of cases go from 16 to 200+. Were all those people
infected before they were quarantined to their rooms? Or is it
spreading somehow via the air system or somehow else.

One guy from HK flew to Japan, traveled to Yokohama, got on that ship
went with it back to HK and that's how 200+ would up getting it.

Another guy from UK, was in Singapore, he traveled to the French Alps,
then back to UK. He infected a dozen people in 3 countries.
Healthcare workers in China, using reasonable measures are being
infected. Sounds pretty easy to transmit to me.

That's why this virus is very dangerous. It's likely air-borne, can survive on external surfaces for many days,

No, not many days. Once again you state "facts" without support. I believe I read the virus can remain alive for around 24 hours in an infectious state.


or hiding in carriers without synonyms. In another words, the virus can grow and multiply without triggering the immune system, but it can stiff infect others.

We need to learn as much as possible from China; so we know how to deal with it locally.

"Hiding"??? The issue of being infectious before displaying symptoms is not unusual with colds and flus.

I do agree that this is a serious illness that may well sweep the globe. I agree that we need to learn as much about it as possible. I wish you would stop making up fake facts about the disease and discuss it rationally. But after the discussion you had on EVs and charging I realize that is just not going to happen.

--

Rick C.

-+ Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
-+ Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209
 
On Thursday, 13 February 2020 01:29:46 UTC, Bill Sloman wrote:
On Thursday, February 13, 2020 at 8:13:03 AM UTC+11, tabby wrote:
On Wednesday, 12 February 2020 19:51:16 UTC, Rick C wrote:
On Wednesday, February 12, 2020 at 6:20:15 AM UTC-5, tabby wrote:

lol, arguing with him is a waste of time. He's spent most of his life coming up with manipulative bs responses.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qve6Ug-qzPY

Interesting video. I dated a lady once who had an anxiety disorder. I tried to deal with it for some time as I really liked her when the anxiety wasn't in force. But eventually she hit a rough patch and I kept trying to help her through it by reasoning with her. While in small doses anxiety can be reasoned away, in larger does reason has no effect. The anxiety disorder is just that, a disorder that is not rational. In the end it became too much for me to handle obliquely and I tried flat out telling her this was her anxiety disorder and she needed to take more of her medicine. I think at that point I fit the video definition of a toxic person. In the end I had to leave. If it was toxic to her, it was even more toxic to me.

One could say that everyone on earth is lost in their bs, in that failure to understand something is what keeps everyone from being more/better/etc than they are, what limits us.

Some people spend a lot more time propagating fatuous delusions than others.
They tend to be less good at less recognising valid criticism too. Anybody who hasn't admitted that they once got something wrong is likely to be a member of that group.

The fact that someone criticizes you does not automatically mean the problem is them.

obviously :)

Using a label like "toxic" is not automatically insightful.

Sometimes it's just people not wanting to get real about their own stuff. There aren't nearly as many reliable generalisations as people generally like to think :)

The proposition that NT frequently doesn't know what he is talking about is pretty reliable.

Flying monkeys explained, in narcissism:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XOXhri6c4AA
I don't love some aspects of it but it explains the FM thing well.
 
On Thursday, February 13, 2020 at 3:43:27 PM UTC-5, Rick C wrote:
On Thursday, February 13, 2020 at 3:05:20 PM UTC-5, edward...@gmail.com wrote:
On Thursday, February 13, 2020 at 11:16:22 AM UTC-8, Whoey Louie wrote:
On Tuesday, February 11, 2020 at 4:29:05 PM UTC-5, bitrex wrote:
On 2/11/20 1:07 AM, whit3rd wrote:
On Monday, February 10, 2020 at 9:10:19 AM UTC-8, edward...@gmail..com wrote:

Last week, researchers from the University of Hong Kong estimated 75,815 had been infected
in Wuhan as of Jan. 25 and projected the epidemic would double every 6.4 days.

That's the big reveal; the exponential growth time constant means that, unchecked,
the last uninfected region succumbs...in this calendar year. Too soon for a vaccine solution.

Cities are especially swift in transmission, and it started in a city, but this could easily
outpace the flu pandemic of 1918-1920 because there's more population in cities nowadays.


There's good evidence influenza can be spread by aerosol droplets
(airborne) but none so far that the coronavirus is spread other
than through close personal contact/large droplets.


What about the cruise ship docked in Japan? Over a couple weeks we've
watched the number of cases go from 16 to 200+. Were all those people
infected before they were quarantined to their rooms? Or is it
spreading somehow via the air system or somehow else.

One guy from HK flew to Japan, traveled to Yokohama, got on that ship
went with it back to HK and that's how 200+ would up getting it.

Another guy from UK, was in Singapore, he traveled to the French Alps,
then back to UK. He infected a dozen people in 3 countries.
Healthcare workers in China, using reasonable measures are being
infected. Sounds pretty easy to transmit to me.

That's why this virus is very dangerous. It's likely air-borne, can survive on external surfaces for many days,

No, not many days. Once again you state "facts" without support. I believe I read the virus can remain alive for around 24 hours in an infectious state.

https://www.sciencealert.com/study-shows-just-how-long-coronaviruses-can-stick-around-on-a-surface

New Study Indicates How Long Coronaviruses Can Survive on a Surface
CARLY CASSELLA13 FEB 2020
If the new coronavirus 2019-nCoV (now officially named COVID-19) is anything like its family members, a new study suggests it could survive on inanimate objects for well over a week. "


Now you'll say, but that isn't this paricular corona virus. The answer is,
no one knows for this virus, including the CDC, so looks like the above
is about the best we have at this point.




or hiding in carriers without synonyms. In another words, the virus can grow and multiply without triggering the immune system, but it can stiff infect others.

We need to learn as much as possible from China; so we know how to deal with it locally.

"Hiding"??? The issue of being infectious before displaying symptoms is not unusual with colds and flus.

Yes, but with the flu, from the time of infection to symptoms is a couple
of days. With Covid it's much longer, apparently up to 2 weeks. So,
if people are walking around, no symptoms, but spreading it, that's
a very big difference and reason for concern.

Are you following the quarantined cruise ship? They've been quarantined
for about ten days now and the number of cases is still rising rapidly.
One guy from HK was on that ship, now there are 200+ victims. Which
leads me to wonder if it's not spreading via the air system or similar.



I do agree that this is a serious illness that may well sweep the globe. I agree that we need to learn as much about it as possible. I wish you would stop making up fake facts about the disease and discuss it rationally. But after the discussion you had on EVs and charging I realize that is just not going to happen.

Seems to me he was discussing it rationally and not making it up.
 
On Thursday, February 13, 2020 at 4:14:26 PM UTC-5, Whoey Louie wrote:
On Thursday, February 13, 2020 at 3:43:27 PM UTC-5, Rick C wrote:
On Thursday, February 13, 2020 at 3:05:20 PM UTC-5, edward...@gmail.com wrote:
On Thursday, February 13, 2020 at 11:16:22 AM UTC-8, Whoey Louie wrote:
On Tuesday, February 11, 2020 at 4:29:05 PM UTC-5, bitrex wrote:
On 2/11/20 1:07 AM, whit3rd wrote:
On Monday, February 10, 2020 at 9:10:19 AM UTC-8, edward...@gmail.com wrote:

Last week, researchers from the University of Hong Kong estimated 75,815 had been infected
in Wuhan as of Jan. 25 and projected the epidemic would double every 6.4 days.

That's the big reveal; the exponential growth time constant means that, unchecked,
the last uninfected region succumbs...in this calendar year. Too soon for a vaccine solution.

Cities are especially swift in transmission, and it started in a city, but this could easily
outpace the flu pandemic of 1918-1920 because there's more population in cities nowadays.


There's good evidence influenza can be spread by aerosol droplets
(airborne) but none so far that the coronavirus is spread other
than through close personal contact/large droplets.


What about the cruise ship docked in Japan? Over a couple weeks we've
watched the number of cases go from 16 to 200+. Were all those people
infected before they were quarantined to their rooms? Or is it
spreading somehow via the air system or somehow else.

One guy from HK flew to Japan, traveled to Yokohama, got on that ship
went with it back to HK and that's how 200+ would up getting it.

Another guy from UK, was in Singapore, he traveled to the French Alps,
then back to UK. He infected a dozen people in 3 countries.
Healthcare workers in China, using reasonable measures are being
infected. Sounds pretty easy to transmit to me.

That's why this virus is very dangerous. It's likely air-borne, can survive on external surfaces for many days,

No, not many days. Once again you state "facts" without support. I believe I read the virus can remain alive for around 24 hours in an infectious state.


https://www.sciencealert.com/study-shows-just-how-long-coronaviruses-can-stick-around-on-a-surface

New Study Indicates How Long Coronaviruses Can Survive on a Surface
CARLY CASSELLA13 FEB 2020
If the new coronavirus 2019-nCoV (now officially named COVID-19) is anything like its family members, a new study suggests it could survive on inanimate objects for well over a week. "


Now you'll say, but that isn't this paricular corona virus. The answer is,
no one knows for this virus, including the CDC, so looks like the above
is about the best we have at this point.

Ok, I'll buy that. I had read something that indicated the lifetime on surfaces was on the order of a day. Obviously reported numbers vary widely because there is not much known.


or hiding in carriers without synonyms. In another words, the virus can grow and multiply without triggering the immune system, but it can stiff infect others.

We need to learn as much as possible from China; so we know how to deal with it locally.

"Hiding"??? The issue of being infectious before displaying symptoms is not unusual with colds and flus.

Yes, but with the flu, from the time of infection to symptoms is a couple
of days. With Covid it's much longer, apparently up to 2 weeks. So,
if people are walking around, no symptoms, but spreading it, that's
a very big difference and reason for concern.

Are you following the quarantined cruise ship? They've been quarantined
for about ten days now and the number of cases is still rising rapidly.
One guy from HK was on that ship, now there are 200+ victims. Which
leads me to wonder if it's not spreading via the air system or similar.




I do agree that this is a serious illness that may well sweep the globe.. I agree that we need to learn as much about it as possible. I wish you would stop making up fake facts about the disease and discuss it rationally.. But after the discussion you had on EVs and charging I realize that is just not going to happen.



Seems to me he was discussing it rationally and not making it up.

No, he may or may not have read the report you found (if he had, why not cite it?). The issue is he talks a lot of trash with nothing to back it up. Did you read any of his references at the beginning of this thread? Most of them don't say what he said. The others say what was claimed, but he then goes beyond that with wild speculation.

The guy is a crank!

--

Rick C.

+- Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
+- Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209
 
On Friday, February 14, 2020 at 2:19:07 AM UTC+11, Rick C wrote:
On Wednesday, February 12, 2020 at 8:54:03 PM UTC-5, Bill Sloman wrote:
On Thursday, February 13, 2020 at 11:54:30 AM UTC+11, edward...@gmail.com wrote:
What is the significance of this data?

They agree with my numbers now. The official number went up 30% overnight to 60,000.

snip

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

"Surge in number of cases and deaths due in most part to the adoption of a new diagnosis classification.

In conformity with other provinces, starting today, Hubei Province will include the number of clinically diagnosed cases into the number of confirmed cases.
Of the 14,840 cases added, 13,332 are due to the new classification while 1,508 are new cases."

That explains the jump in reported cases, but what about the reported deaths? That also has jumped. Were they not counting some deaths because they were not certain they were due to this new virus? So the death rate all along was higher than the numbers we've been seeing?

If the people that died hadn't tested positive for the new corona virus, they wouldn't have been reported as dying from it. Now that all it takes is cororna-virsus-like sysmptoms and contact with a person infected with corona virus, some people who have already died are being reclassifed as victims of the corona virus.

It's book-keeping, rather any increase in actual numbers of dead people.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney
 
On Thursday, February 13, 2020 at 4:34:23 PM UTC-5, tabb...@gmail.com wrote:
Flying monkeys explained, in narcissism:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XOXhri6c4AA
I don't love some aspects of it but it explains the FM thing well.

Dude, Sloman isn't turning people against you. People already see and know who you are and have their own opinions. You are really reaching for this crap. I guess Bill got to you, eh? Kind of like JL. He can't stand being criticized so he kill files people. It's actually pretty funny if you think about it. Kill filing is pretty pathetic, but announcing that you've kill filed someone is downright juvenile.

Just ignore him if you don't like what he writes. You seem like Trump and the media. They are wonderful when they say what he likes and when they don't they are the devil incarnate.

--

Rick C.

++ Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
++ Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209
 

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