R
Rick C
Guest
Ok, in another post you said you posted links from the mainstream media to support your conclusions. Here is my reply to that claim.
On Monday, February 10, 2020 at 12:10:19 PM UTC-5, edward...@gmail.com wrote:
Yes, we could have told you a year ago that the factories would be shut down. We don't need a news flash for that. They also announced weeks ago that they would be extending the shutdowns and canceling many activities that bring people together. Exactly what you would expect during an outbreak of nearly any disease you want to stop. So what idea of yours is this supporting exactly?
It seems that it is actually common for some portion of the workers to not return after the holiday.
"In a normal year, factories typically expect that only 80-85% of their workforce will return after Lunar New Year, as many workers are actually from distant regions of the country."
So this really seems like a non-news event when talking about the severity of the disease rather than the impact.
We have been hearing about Coronaviruses on cruise ships for weeks now. Most are precautionary measures being taken to prevent the spread of the disease. Many stories are about how crappy it is to be stuck on a floating hospital while sequestered to your room. Again, where's the news?
I've read this article several times on my phone. Nothing exciting there. Hospitals often are places to catch disease rather than being cured. Ever hear of MRSA? Many hospitals routinely swap incoming and outgoing patients for this so they can track nosocomial infections.
Notice your use of the word "first" patients. That's because they have improved their procedures.
Your final statement about 3000 patients of a newly build hospital all dying is unfounded.
Yes, a lot of the "infected" statistic is estimated because for some people the disease is pretty much like a cold and is not reported to hospitals and not counted. The exact number is not important when trying to prevent a pandemic. Consistently measured numbers is important for comparison. So don't compare the university numbers with the government numbers.
Not really important if you isolate people. Are you aware that the flu kills 10's of thousands of people in the US each year? The reproduction number for flu viruses are between 1 and 4.
What is the significance of this data? Why are you so obsessed with this disease and not other diseases which are much more likely to kill you?
--
Rick C.
+ Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
+ Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209
On Monday, February 10, 2020 at 12:10:19 PM UTC-5, edward...@gmail.com wrote:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/annashedletsky/2020/02/07/coronavirus-hits-electronics-manufacturing-hard-companies-are-scrambling/#75d2b797369c
(Electronic) Factories have been shut down as part of the unprecedented extended Lunar New Year,
which was supposed to end on January 30, and has now been extended until February 9
(not a chance) at the earliest.
(local government requires 14 days quarantine after reporting to factory)
Yes, we could have told you a year ago that the factories would be shut down. We don't need a news flash for that. They also announced weeks ago that they would be extending the shutdowns and canceling many activities that bring people together. Exactly what you would expect during an outbreak of nearly any disease you want to stop. So what idea of yours is this supporting exactly?
It seems that it is actually common for some portion of the workers to not return after the holiday.
"In a normal year, factories typically expect that only 80-85% of their workforce will return after Lunar New Year, as many workers are actually from distant regions of the country."
So this really seems like a non-news event when talking about the severity of the disease rather than the impact.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/coronavirus-cases-on-cruise-ship-climb-to-136-11581322993
Coronavirus Cases on Cruise Ship Climb to 135
(they need more flesh air)
(should sent the ship to warmer climate, Australia?)
We have been hearing about Coronaviruses on cruise ships for weeks now. Most are precautionary measures being taken to prevent the spread of the disease. Many stories are about how crappy it is to be stuck on a floating hospital while sequestered to your room. Again, where's the news?
https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/08/health/coronavirus-hospital-infections-frieden/index.html
A study published Friday in the medical journal JAMA found that 41% of the first 138 patients
diagnosed at one hospital in Wuhan, China, were presumed to be infected in that hospital.
(3000 patients in newly built medical concentration camps will probably all die)
I've read this article several times on my phone. Nothing exciting there. Hospitals often are places to catch disease rather than being cured. Ever hear of MRSA? Many hospitals routinely swap incoming and outgoing patients for this so they can track nosocomial infections.
Notice your use of the word "first" patients. That's because they have improved their procedures.
Your final statement about 3000 patients of a newly build hospital all dying is unfounded.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/health/2020/02/06/coronavirus-wuhan-china-recurring-winter-illness-flu/4665482002/
Last week, researchers from the University of Hong Kong estimated 75,815 had been infected
in Wuhan as of Jan. 25 and projected the epidemic would double every 6.4 days.
Yes, a lot of the "infected" statistic is estimated because for some people the disease is pretty much like a cold and is not reported to hospitals and not counted. The exact number is not important when trying to prevent a pandemic. Consistently measured numbers is important for comparison. So don't compare the university numbers with the government numbers.
https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20200210-coronavirus-finding-a-cure-to-fight-the-symptoms
Donnelly and her colleagues have estimated the new coronavirus to have a
reproduction number of about 2.6
Not really important if you isolate people. Are you aware that the flu kills 10's of thousands of people in the US each year? The reproduction number for flu viruses are between 1 and 4.
--- conservative estimates ---
W0 W1 W2 W3 W4 W5 W6
R0 12/30 1/6 1/13 1/20 1/27 2/3 2/10
WH 2.0 41 192 905 2766 13004 26008 52017
LS 1.8 180 324 583 1049
RS 1.8 197 354 638 1148
RW 1.8 137 246 443 798
G2 1.8 1120 2016 3628 6531
SH 1.5 98 147 220 330
BJ 1.5 113 169 254 381
HK 1.8 17 30
JP 1.5 100 150
US 1.5 11 16
Assumptions:
Ro for W0 to W3 was 4.7
35% spreaded from G0 (Ground 0) to G1 and G2
G0 is saturated, so actual infection rate is capped
G0 daily cremation of 1500, 40% from hospital, 60% from home
G1 (RS, RW, LS) are almost saturated
G2 is rest of China
MP Miltary police and army are not included
What is the significance of this data? Why are you so obsessed with this disease and not other diseases which are much more likely to kill you?
--
Rick C.
+ Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
+ Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209