Is Anyone in Charge of the Response to COVID-19?

jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote in
news:qqni7fdro666psu80p5gqu6mpkbumor1li@4ax.com:

On Mon, 23 Mar 2020 17:52:55 -0700 (PDT), whit3rd
whit3rd@gmail.com> wrote:

On Monday, March 23, 2020 at 12:59:12 PM UTC-7,
jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:

Is C19 unique among seasonal flus in the way it propagates?

Not in the way it propagates, just in the lack of immune
resistance in its target (us).

Are we all immune to the other viruses? If so, why do we have 34K
flu deaths so far this flu season?

Oh looky! The RETARDED FUCK LARKIN is spouting the same LAME,
RETARDED horsehit Trump spouts!

Why don't you find the biggest red spot and go there and dance in
the streets so you can declare it dormant.

It does not get more stupid than Donald John Trump. Oh wait...
there is. A FUCKING RETARDED TRUMP SUPPORTER is even more stupid
than the putz they failed to elect and the party shoehorned into
office.

After all the stupid, and criminal, and hurtful crap he has pulled,
you dumbfuck retarded dopes STILL won't take off the horse blinders.

Fuck you, Larkin, you abject fucking idiot. Corona virus is NOT a
flu, you fucking retard.

 

[Martin Brown]

On 23/03/2020 19:59, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:

On Mon, 23 Mar 2020 10:47:54 -0700, Robert Baer
robertbaer@localnet.com> wrote:

jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Sat, 21 Mar 2020 19:17:28 -0700 (PDT), edward.ming.lee@gmail.com
wrote:

Don't all seasonal flus grow exponentially? What's special about this
one?
It was a simple question. Can anybody answer it? Or did the dog eat
your homework?

We are still early in the Covid-19 season (as compared to the flu); so, hard to see the effect for some people.

Covid-19 is 2x to 3x more infectious (especially those without symptoms) as the flu, 20x to 50x more deadly, live outside hosts for days and air-borne (WHO is now confirming this).

The Diamond Princess cruise petri dish, visible from our kitchen
window, was about as bad a disease environment as you can get. Less
than 20 per cent of people on board caught the virus. About half of
those had no symptoms. 7 people died out of 3700 passengers, all of
them over 70.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Influenza#Epidemiology

Look at the chart halfway down. Why didn't those killers deserve 24/7
press and lockdowns?

The CDC was one of the first sources to let the public know that the
COVID-19 virus is primarily spread via person-to-person contact, mainly
through sneezes and coughs.

Another possible way of becoming infected is by coming into contact
with a surface that has COVID-19 on it. When someone wipes their nose,
sneezes, or coughs into their hand and touches a surface, there is a
risk of transmission to another person.

Picking it up on your hands and touching your face is generally reckoned
to the the main vector for transmission. One contaminated door knob can
hit a lot of people and so many of them unthinkingly touch their faces.

Aerosol you have to be quite close and unlucky. Big risk for medics at
close quarters but a relatively low one if you keep a safe distance.

> Is C19 unique among seasonal flus in the way it propagates?

Its about as infectious and an order of magnitude more lethal.

> Why are so many people terrified of this one?

It is a novel zoonotic disease so no-one has any immunity to it. Half
the population show almost no symptoms and not everyone with symptoms is
badly affected but those that are and develop complications require very
serious medical intervention to survive it. Viral pneumonia is the
complication which is the most fearsome of its side/after effects.

Left to its own devices it will kill about 3% of the population before
it becomes self limiting. Here are the current statistics:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/

Mostly it kills the over 70's but a few unlucky health workers will also
die particularly if the correct PPE is not provided for them.

I suspect that outcome is now unavoidable and all we are doing at
present with the half hearted lock down is delaying the inevitable.

UK population behaved like lemmings over the weekend in the spring
sunshine and the virus will have spread to a large part of the country.

--
Regards,
Martin Brown

 

[Tom Del Rosso]

Rick C wrote:

On Monday, March 23, 2020 at 11:32:22 PM UTC-4, Tom Del Rosso wrote:
jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Mon, 23 Mar 2020 20:54:39 -0400, "Tom Del Rosso"
fizzbintuesday@that-google-mail-domain.com> wrote:

jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:

OK, you can't answer it either.

Well I don't refuse to. I just didn't feel qualified.

It seems that although other bugs have exponential growth, the base
is larger with this one.

2.5^2 vs 1.5^2

AIUI.




We don't know R0 for this one yet. Most cases are mild or
asymptomatic, never counted. Looks like kids get it and never show
symptoms, just spread it around.

It's amazing how little hard data we have on this one. Maybe that's
the case for all seasonal flus. We just picked this one to panic
over.

A different exponent just changes the time scale of an epidemic. The
same exponential-limiting effects will still kick in. No disease
grows exponentially forever, or kills 100% of humanity.

Maybe we over-reacted just because China and Italy allowed it to get
out of control. It could help if we take a 2-week vacation to sort
out who is infected, whether or not the benefit is worth costing
each person a few thousand dollars (including people who can't
afford it), but I don't see any benefit in making this last longer.

What part of the idea do you not understand??? Today's number is up
and the exponential growth continues. It is showing some sign of a
slightly lower R0 value, but no real sign of coming off the growth
curve.

You think it's beneficial for everyone to stay home for more than 2
weeks? The downside has to be worse than the benefit at some point.

Now that the numbers by themselves are starting to look scary, there
seems to be more concern from the public. That can work in our
favor. But there will still be more growth in the numbers because of
the latency to confirmed cases. There is even more latency to having
an impact on the death rate which is presently 140 per day.

There has been no overreaction on the part of the US. If anything we
have waited much too long to act and still have not acted strongly
enough.

Emptying store shelves is over-reacting. Complaining of "price gouging",
whenever supply-and-demand should raise prices, is what allows people to
do it.

The only way for us to sort out who is affected is to test everyone
in the country. I expect that will be possible by the end of May.

Maybe you can afford not to work until then.

Yes, various countries have allowed it to get out of control and we
are one of them, we just don't know it yet because we haven't tested
enough people. That was our single largest failing in this fiasco,
not having tests available even with the advance notice the Chinese
gave us. At the same time we locked down travel with China, we
should have started ramping up usable test kits. Why did anyone
think we weren't going to need them? Even without an out of control
situation we needed to be able to test EVERYONE who came into the
country, not just the ones who appeared sick.

Total fail!

We started *developing* cheap test kits as soon as we should have. I
don't know how you expected us to have the kits at the beginning.

 

Rick C <gnuarm.deletethisbit@gmail.com> wrote in news:f1b8aeb6-74ff-
403d-b770-fe9c20589f26@googlegroups.com:

Another Total Fail!

They were more concerned with their stocks.

I know a few that need to be imprisoned for those moves.

 

[Rick C]

On Tuesday, March 24, 2020 at 9:02:01 AM UTC-4, Tom Del Rosso wrote:

Rick C wrote:
On Monday, March 23, 2020 at 11:32:22 PM UTC-4, Tom Del Rosso wrote:
jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Mon, 23 Mar 2020 20:54:39 -0400, "Tom Del Rosso"
fizzbintuesday@that-google-mail-domain.com> wrote:

jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:

OK, you can't answer it either.

Well I don't refuse to. I just didn't feel qualified.

It seems that although other bugs have exponential growth, the base
is larger with this one.

2.5^2 vs 1.5^2

AIUI.




We don't know R0 for this one yet. Most cases are mild or
asymptomatic, never counted. Looks like kids get it and never show
symptoms, just spread it around.

It's amazing how little hard data we have on this one. Maybe that's
the case for all seasonal flus. We just picked this one to panic
over.

A different exponent just changes the time scale of an epidemic. The
same exponential-limiting effects will still kick in. No disease
grows exponentially forever, or kills 100% of humanity.

Maybe we over-reacted just because China and Italy allowed it to get
out of control. It could help if we take a 2-week vacation to sort
out who is infected, whether or not the benefit is worth costing
each person a few thousand dollars (including people who can't
afford it), but I don't see any benefit in making this last longer.

What part of the idea do you not understand??? Today's number is up
and the exponential growth continues. It is showing some sign of a
slightly lower R0 value, but no real sign of coming off the growth
curve.

You think it's beneficial for everyone to stay home for more than 2
weeks? The downside has to be worse than the benefit at some point.

There is nothing magical about 2 weeks. People need to stay at home until the virus is contained and we are able to manage all cases occurring beyond that point.

Yes, that is the point where the downside outweighs the benefit.

Now that the numbers by themselves are starting to look scary, there
seems to be more concern from the public. That can work in our
favor. But there will still be more growth in the numbers because of
the latency to confirmed cases. There is even more latency to having
an impact on the death rate which is presently 140 per day.

There has been no overreaction on the part of the US. If anything we
have waited much too long to act and still have not acted strongly
enough.

Emptying store shelves is over-reacting. Complaining of "price gouging",
whenever supply-and-demand should raise prices, is what allows people to
do it.

I've been in the stores and shelves are not empty.

"Do" what???

The only way for us to sort out who is affected is to test everyone
in the country. I expect that will be possible by the end of May.

Maybe you can afford not to work until then.

A good friend just bought a new house without selling the old one. I advised him not to, but he assured me it was the right way to go for him. We'll see what happens. I don't know what is going on in the real estate market, but the agents don't seem to be in hiding. But until his house sells they are paying two mortgages. They still have two incomes so for the moment it's fine but they don't have enough cash reserves to do without either income and pay two mortgages.

Yes, various countries have allowed it to get out of control and we
are one of them, we just don't know it yet because we haven't tested
enough people. That was our single largest failing in this fiasco,
not having tests available even with the advance notice the Chinese
gave us. At the same time we locked down travel with China, we
should have started ramping up usable test kits. Why did anyone
think we weren't going to need them? Even without an out of control
situation we needed to be able to test EVERYONE who came into the
country, not just the ones who appeared sick.

Total fail!

We started *developing* cheap test kits as soon as we should have. I
don't know how you expected us to have the kits at the beginning.

I expected us to have WORKING test kits when this started so they could ramp up right away rather than delays which we still have not recovered from. It has been weeks we've been hearing from the VP and President that we will have "1.4 million tests on board next week" or "end of next week... enable 1.2 million Americans to be tested for coronavirus". Now three weeks later we are still only testing those who have been in contact with infected people and show symptoms.

China reported infections January 7. The first US infection was confirmed January 20. We failed to provide adequate testing all through February an into March. That's a far cry from having "the kits at the beginning".

Another Total Fail!

--

Rick C.

++++ Get 2,000 miles of free Supercharging
++++ Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

 

[Bill Sloman]

On Tuesday, March 24, 2020 at 10:51:33 PM UTC+11, Martin Brown wrote:

On 23/03/2020 19:59, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Mon, 23 Mar 2020 10:47:54 -0700, Robert Baer
robertbaer@localnet.com> wrote:

jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Sat, 21 Mar 2020 19:17:28 -0700 (PDT), edward.ming.lee@gmail.com
wrote:

Don't all seasonal flus grow exponentially? What's special about this
one?
It was a simple question. Can anybody answer it? Or did the dog eat
your homework?

We are still early in the Covid-19 season (as compared to the flu); so, hard to see the effect for some people.

Covid-19 is 2x to 3x more infectious (especially those without symptoms) as the flu, 20x to 50x more deadly, live outside hosts for days and air-borne (WHO is now confirming this).

The Diamond Princess cruise petri dish, visible from our kitchen
window, was about as bad a disease environment as you can get. Less
than 20 per cent of people on board caught the virus. About half of
those had no symptoms. 7 people died out of 3700 passengers, all of
them over 70.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Influenza#Epidemiology

Look at the chart halfway down. Why didn't those killers deserve 24/7
press and lockdowns?

The CDC was one of the first sources to let the public know that the
COVID-19 virus is primarily spread via person-to-person contact, mainly
through sneezes and coughs.

Another possible way of becoming infected is by coming into contact
with a surface that has COVID-19 on it. When someone wipes their nose,
sneezes, or coughs into their hand and touches a surface, there is a
risk of transmission to another person.

Picking it up on your hands and touching your face is generally reckoned
to the the main vector for transmission. One contaminated door knob can
hit a lot of people and so many of them unthinkingly touch their faces.

Aerosol you have to be quite close and unlucky. Big risk for medics at
close quarters but a relatively low one if you keep a safe distance.

Is C19 unique among seasonal flus in the way it propagates?

Its about as infectious and an order of magnitude more lethal.

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0262407920305716

suggest that it has an extra trick up it's sleeve. It contains "non-structural" genes that code for proteins that interfere with our immune system, delayig our immune response and giving the virus time to propagate and get it's carrier to shed new virus particles before showing obvious symptoms.

Why are so many people terrified of this one?

It is a novel zoonotic disease so no-one has any immunity to it. Half
the population show almost no symptoms and not everyone with symptoms is
badly affected but those that are and develop complications require very
serious medical intervention to survive it. Viral pneumonia is the
complication which is the most fearsome of its side/after effects.

Left to its own devices it will kill about 3% of the population before
it becomes self limiting. Here are the current statistics:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/

Mostly it kills the over 70's but a few unlucky health workers will also
die particularly if the correct PPE is not provided for them.

It does seem to kill younger people - not as frequently as it kills older people, but quite enough to be noticeable.

I suspect that outcome is now unavoidable and all we are doing at
present with the half-hearted lock down is delaying the inevitable.

Which is getting to lock-down which is sufficiently whole-hearted to work.

China has done it, so it ought to be possible

Italy has now had two days of successively lower new case numbers. The logarithmic plot of the number infected has been bending down for about a month now, but not fast enough. Once the days by day case number start to fall, you've get into a much more promising situation.

UK population behaved like lemmings over the weekend in the spring
sunshine and the virus will have spread to a large part of the country.

Perhaps, but they may be more educatable than lemmings. We will see.

The USA looks even further away from getting their act together.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

 

[David Brown]

On 24/03/2020 15:09, Whoey Louie wrote:

On Monday, March 23, 2020 at 9:25:53 PM UTC-4, Rick C wrote:
On Monday, March 23, 2020 at 8:53:00 PM UTC-4, whit3rd wrote:
On Monday, March 23, 2020 at 12:59:12 PM UTC-7, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:

Is C19 unique among seasonal flus in the way it propagates?

Not in the way it propagates, just in the lack of immune resistance in its target (us).

How many times do you have to hear that?

He has never heard it and won't hear it now. He is incapable of hearing anything he doesn't want to hear... not unlike Trump who Fauci said he has to tell as many as four times before something sinks in.

I think Trump is just too old for the job. Like Reagan he got the job, but is not able to process information adequately.

That;s stupid, even for you. Reagan was one of the most successful presidents
in US history. His record speaks for itself. When he entered office the
economy was a disaster, double digit inflation, we were demoralized,
Iran was holding us hostage, the Cold War was ongoing, Russia had invaded
Afghanistan, we had gone from Vietnam, to Watergate, to Carter's failed
presidency. His first day in office the Iranians released the hostages
because they feared Reagan, they knew he wasn't little pussy Jimmy.
By the time he left, America's spirit was restored, we were
respected around the world again, we had signed the largest nuke deal in
history, the first that REDUCED nuclear weapons and eliminated an entire
class, inflation back to normal, interest rates back to normal, 21 mil
new, good jobs in everything from construction to high tech. Oh, and
the USSR went to the ash heap of history, we won, they lost.

How well did Reagan's war on drugs go?

How can Reagan possibly get credit for ending the Iran hostage crisis
minutes after he was sworn in? That's sillier than saying Obama
deserved the Nobel Peace Prize for not yet having started any wars.
Carter caused the hostage crisis, and Carter bought his way out of it -
the release was merely timed to annoy him.

Overall, Reagan was quite successful. But that is not at odds with
saying he was old and unable to process information very well. The main
job of a president is to get the right people in the right places and
make sure they do /their/ jobs - with a secondary job of keeping people
convinced that things are running smoothly. And Reagan did those
reasonably well, despite being old and decrepit.

A key difference with Trump is that Reagan knew he was an actor, and
couldn't run anything bigger than a village fair - he delegated to
people who did quite well at running the place. Trump is also an actor,
but he believes his own tripe and thinks he /can/ run the show. That's
why Reagan did well and Trump is a disaster.

At least Trump doesn't fall asleep during meetings. But then it might be better if he did.

--

Rick C.

++-+ Get 2,000 miles of free Supercharging
++-+Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

 

[Whoey Louie]

On Monday, March 23, 2020 at 11:38:21 PM UTC-4, Tom Del Rosso wrote:

whit3rd wrote:
On Monday, March 23, 2020 at 12:59:12 PM UTC-7,
jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:

Is C19 unique among seasonal flus in the way it propagates?

Not in the way it propagates, just in the lack of immune resistance
in its target (us).

How many times do you have to hear that?

We don't have immunity to any flu either do we?

With all this reading I'm learning more than I ever knew about flu. A
lot of people get it with no symptoms every year.

Geez of course we have some immunity and we have a large percentage
vaccinated which gives them some immunity too. Plus, this obviously
is NOT the flu, it's far worse.

 

[Whoey Louie]

On Monday, March 23, 2020 at 11:32:22 PM UTC-4, Tom Del Rosso wrote:

jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Mon, 23 Mar 2020 20:54:39 -0400, "Tom Del Rosso"
fizzbintuesday@that-google-mail-domain.com> wrote:

jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:

OK, you can't answer it either.

Well I don't refuse to. I just didn't feel qualified.

It seems that although other bugs have exponential growth, the base
is larger with this one.

2.5^2 vs 1.5^2

AIUI.




We don't know R0 for this one yet. Most cases are mild or
asymptomatic, never counted. Looks like kids get it and never show
symptoms, just spread it around.

It's amazing how little hard data we have on this one. Maybe that's
the case for all seasonal flus. We just picked this one to panic over.

A different exponent just changes the time scale of an epidemic. The
same exponential-limiting effects will still kick in. No disease grows
exponentially forever, or kills 100% of humanity.

Maybe we over-reacted just because China and Italy allowed it to get out
of control.

As if those are the only countries where it was spreading exponentially.
It's spreading rapidly in all of Europe, much of the world, the US and there
is no reason to think that we are going to somehow get lucky.



It could help if we take a 2-week vacation to sort out who

is infected, whether or not the benefit is worth costing each person a
few thousand dollars (including people who can't afford it), but I don't
see any benefit in making this last longer.

The benefit is that we are slowing the infection rate so that hospitals
can handle it without those collapsing and bodies piling up everywhere.

 

[Whoey Louie]

On Monday, March 23, 2020 at 9:25:53 PM UTC-4, Rick C wrote:

On Monday, March 23, 2020 at 8:53:00 PM UTC-4, whit3rd wrote:
On Monday, March 23, 2020 at 12:59:12 PM UTC-7, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:

Is C19 unique among seasonal flus in the way it propagates?

Not in the way it propagates, just in the lack of immune resistance in its target (us).

How many times do you have to hear that?

He has never heard it and won't hear it now. He is incapable of hearing anything he doesn't want to hear... not unlike Trump who Fauci said he has to tell as many as four times before something sinks in.

I think Trump is just too old for the job. Like Reagan he got the job, but is not able to process information adequately.

That;s stupid, even for you. Reagan was one of the most successful presidents
in US history. His record speaks for itself. When he entered office the
economy was a disaster, double digit inflation, we were demoralized,
Iran was holding us hostage, the Cold War was ongoing, Russia had invaded
Afghanistan, we had gone from Vietnam, to Watergate, to Carter's failed
presidency. His first day in office the Iranians released the hostages
because they feared Reagan, they knew he wasn't little pussy Jimmy.
By the time he left, America's spirit was restored, we were
respected around the world again, we had signed the largest nuke deal in
history, the first that REDUCED nuclear weapons and eliminated an entire
class, inflation back to normal, interest rates back to normal, 21 mil
new, good jobs in everything from construction to high tech. Oh, and
the USSR went to the ash heap of history, we won, they lost.




At least Trump doesn't fall asleep during meetings. But then it might be better if he did.

--

Rick C.

++-+ Get 2,000 miles of free Supercharging
++-+Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

 

[Whoey Louie]

On Monday, March 23, 2020 at 9:18:30 PM UTC-4, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:

On Mon, 23 Mar 2020 17:52:55 -0700 (PDT), whit3rd <whit3rd@gmail.com
wrote:

On Monday, March 23, 2020 at 12:59:12 PM UTC-7, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:

Is C19 unique among seasonal flus in the way it propagates?

Not in the way it propagates, just in the lack of immune resistance in its target (us).

Are we all immune to the other viruses? If so, why do we have 34K flu
deaths so far this flu season?

No, we are not totally immune, but many of us have some immunity and that
together with the vaccine limits the spread. Plus Covid isn't the flu,
far higher hospitalizations and death rates.

 

[Whoey Louie]

On Monday, March 23, 2020 at 10:09:36 PM UTC-4, mpm wrote:

On Monday, March 23, 2020 at 8:11:51 PM UTC-4, Whoey Louie wrote:
The market will recover and people's investments will return.

Not if the company goes bankrupt. The stockholders typically get wiped
out.


Yeah, that part's not quite true.
And it depends greatly upon the type of bankruptcy.


A reorganization or restructuring writes off debt, but is done so in a manner adjudicated fair by the bankruptcy judge. Nearly all debt holders will take some sort of a haircut, and some get warrants too.


If it's a liquidation (no re-org possible), then the company is sold off and the proceeds go to the debt holders, typically with senior debt paid first, and the rest to subordinated debt (if any monies or value-assets remain).

But people get paid. Ever hear of "Pennies on the dollar"?
Occasionally, people go to prison.

I agree. The point is that with America shut down, we don't have the
time to go through a bankruptcy process for each of the companies and
find out, like Rick wants. It's that simple. Even Obama recognized
that. Today many Democrats have gone Bernie commie crazy. As further
evidence, look at the Democrats trying to queer the emergency stimulus
by trying to put carbon restriction on the airlines in it, insisting
that $30K in student loans be forgiven, etc. Totally nuts.

 

Whoey Louie <trader4@optonline.net> wrote in
news:dcfbf2cd-fa8e-47f6-a95c-b14c921d4e99@googlegroups.com:

That;s stupid, even for you. Reagan was one of the most
successful presidents in US history. His record speaks for
itself. When he entered office the economy was a disaster, double
digit inflation,

You are an idiot. The dow jones has been on a steady uphill climb
since the early '70s. It grew far faster AFTER Reagan left office.
America is so great that the economy really does not have much to do
with the sitting president at any one moment, despite the fact that
they always lay claims do being the very engine of that growth. That
is false. America is great, and presidential fuckups USUALLY do not
weigh in much... until now.

> we were demoralized,

You are an idiot. Your whore mother was demoralized.

> Iran was holding us hostage,

Iran was holding US citzens hostage for political purpose and
because they have no clue what the UN is, yes. That had nothing to
do with the party or the person in the office of the president at the
time.

> the Cold War was ongoing,

Nor did that. Russia's economy was in freefall failure. They were
doomed regardless, and reagan's tear down the wall speech was a
trigger that was going to be pulled regardless.

You also believe the retarded lie that they released the hostages
out of fear of Reagan. You really are a true idiot. Go read about
the timeline, you retarded putz.

And if you think that none of the players have any more Neutron
devices you really are troubled by tunnel vision.

Go look at a map and tell us again... where did mother Russia go?

WAY BIGGER THAN WE ARE.

And they only yesterday began a trial of an ex marine accused of
espionage. I say yet another bad move of a bad nation, collecting
chess pieces.

Your brain went to the ash heap of your tobacco habit. Keep
restricting those blood vessels, ya dopey dumbfuck.

 

[Rick C]

On Tuesday, March 24, 2020 at 10:16:08 AM UTC-4, Whoey Louie wrote:

On Monday, March 23, 2020 at 10:09:36 PM UTC-4, mpm wrote:
On Monday, March 23, 2020 at 8:11:51 PM UTC-4, Whoey Louie wrote:
The market will recover and people's investments will return.

Not if the company goes bankrupt. The stockholders typically get wiped
out.


Yeah, that part's not quite true.
And it depends greatly upon the type of bankruptcy.


A reorganization or restructuring writes off debt, but is done so in a manner adjudicated fair by the bankruptcy judge. Nearly all debt holders will take some sort of a haircut, and some get warrants too.


If it's a liquidation (no re-org possible), then the company is sold off and the proceeds go to the debt holders, typically with senior debt paid first, and the rest to subordinated debt (if any monies or value-assets remain).

But people get paid. Ever hear of "Pennies on the dollar"?
Occasionally, people go to prison.


I agree. The point is that with America shut down, we don't have the
time to go through a bankruptcy process for each of the companies and
find out, like Rick wants. It's that simple. Even Obama recognized
that. Today many Democrats have gone Bernie commie crazy. As further
evidence, look at the Democrats trying to queer the emergency stimulus
by trying to put carbon restriction on the airlines in it, insisting
that $30K in student loans be forgiven, etc. Totally nuts.

You are showing that you don't understand the most basic of issues regarding the impact on the economy. Going through bankruptcy won't require businesses to stop doing anything. They can continue to function the entire time..

This is not likely to last long enough to actually cause our major businesses to go bankrupt anyway. That's why there's no need for massive aid to every company. Tesla has already said they have enough funds to ride this out. GM is closing down many of it's plants as is Ford as they switch direction from gas vehicles to battery. In some ways this will be good for them. Now they don't have to pay salaries and can spend their time doing engineering and design which they so desperately need to complete to complete the switch over.

Boeing may be a different story. Yes, bankruptcy is one potential result and there is no reason to bail them out without many assurances to the US taxpayers.

--

Rick C.

----- Get 2,000 miles of free Supercharging
----- Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

 

The "recovered" rate is weird. In the US, the rate is very low, about
0.6%. In some countries it's over 50%.

We have to consider the lag in timing. We (US) are few weeks behind other countries; so, the death and recovery rates are still too early to tell. The medical system can still handle the current load. It is delaying both numbers as well.

 

On Tue, 24 Mar 2020 11:51:28 +0000, Martin Brown
<'''newspam'''@nezumi.demon.co.uk> wrote:

On 23/03/2020 19:59, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Mon, 23 Mar 2020 10:47:54 -0700, Robert Baer
robertbaer@localnet.com> wrote:

jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Sat, 21 Mar 2020 19:17:28 -0700 (PDT), edward.ming.lee@gmail.com
wrote:

Don't all seasonal flus grow exponentially? What's special about this
one?
It was a simple question. Can anybody answer it? Or did the dog eat
your homework?

We are still early in the Covid-19 season (as compared to the flu); so, hard to see the effect for some people.

Covid-19 is 2x to 3x more infectious (especially those without symptoms) as the flu, 20x to 50x more deadly, live outside hosts for days and air-borne (WHO is now confirming this).

The Diamond Princess cruise petri dish, visible from our kitchen
window, was about as bad a disease environment as you can get. Less
than 20 per cent of people on board caught the virus. About half of
those had no symptoms. 7 people died out of 3700 passengers, all of
them over 70.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Influenza#Epidemiology

Look at the chart halfway down. Why didn't those killers deserve 24/7
press and lockdowns?

The CDC was one of the first sources to let the public know that the
COVID-19 virus is primarily spread via person-to-person contact, mainly
through sneezes and coughs.

Another possible way of becoming infected is by coming into contact
with a surface that has COVID-19 on it. When someone wipes their nose,
sneezes, or coughs into their hand and touches a surface, there is a
risk of transmission to another person.

Picking it up on your hands and touching your face is generally reckoned
to the the main vector for transmission. One contaminated door knob can
hit a lot of people and so many of them unthinkingly touch their faces.

Shopping cart handles may be a major vector. Our local Safeway is
making no effort to clean them before reuse.

Aerosol you have to be quite close and unlucky. Big risk for medics at
close quarters but a relatively low one if you keep a safe distance.

Is C19 unique among seasonal flus in the way it propagates?

Its about as infectious and an order of magnitude more lethal.

Why are so many people terrified of this one?

It is a novel zoonotic disease so no-one has any immunity to it. Half
the population show almost no symptoms and not everyone with symptoms is
badly affected but those that are and develop complications require very
serious medical intervention to survive it. Viral pneumonia is the
complication which is the most fearsome of its side/after effects.

Left to its own devices it will kill about 3% of the population before
it becomes self limiting. Here are the current statistics:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/

That probably ignores asymptomatics and unreported mild cases, which
may be the majority of cases.

The "recovered" rate is weird. In the US, the rate is very low, about
0.6%. In some countries it's over 50%.

Mostly it kills the over 70's but a few unlucky health workers will also
die particularly if the correct PPE is not provided for them.

I suspect that outcome is now unavoidable and all we are doing at
present with the half hearted lock down is delaying the inevitable.

We could maximally protect the people who need it and let it burn out
generally.

UK population behaved like lemmings over the weekend in the spring
sunshine and the virus will have spread to a large part of the country.

--

John Larkin Highland Technology, Inc

The cork popped merrily, and Lord Peter rose to his feet.
"Bunter", he said, "I give you a toast. The triumph of Instinct over Reason"

 

[Whoey Louie]

On Tuesday, March 24, 2020 at 10:51:36 AM UTC-4, Rick C wrote:

On Tuesday, March 24, 2020 at 10:16:08 AM UTC-4, Whoey Louie wrote:
On Monday, March 23, 2020 at 10:09:36 PM UTC-4, mpm wrote:
On Monday, March 23, 2020 at 8:11:51 PM UTC-4, Whoey Louie wrote:
The market will recover and people's investments will return.

Not if the company goes bankrupt. The stockholders typically get wiped
out.


Yeah, that part's not quite true.
And it depends greatly upon the type of bankruptcy.


A reorganization or restructuring writes off debt, but is done so in a manner adjudicated fair by the bankruptcy judge. Nearly all debt holders will take some sort of a haircut, and some get warrants too.


If it's a liquidation (no re-org possible), then the company is sold off and the proceeds go to the debt holders, typically with senior debt paid first, and the rest to subordinated debt (if any monies or value-assets remain).

But people get paid. Ever hear of "Pennies on the dollar"?
Occasionally, people go to prison.


I agree. The point is that with America shut down, we don't have the
time to go through a bankruptcy process for each of the companies and
find out, like Rick wants. It's that simple. Even Obama recognized
that. Today many Democrats have gone Bernie commie crazy. As further
evidence, look at the Democrats trying to queer the emergency stimulus
by trying to put carbon restriction on the airlines in it, insisting
that $30K in student loans be forgiven, etc. Totally nuts.

You are showing that you don't understand the most basic of issues regarding the impact on the economy. Going through bankruptcy won't require businesses to stop doing anything. They can continue to function the entire time.

And what happens when the suppliers have their credit lines reduced,
cut because vendors to them are unsure if their bills will be paid?
What happens to money market funds holding any paper? What happens
to the pension funds that take a hit as the stock goes to zero?
And why do that? Oh, because you and Bernie think it's a great idea
instead of making loans. You want all the above damage to occur and
only then make the loans. REally stupid, even for you. Is that what
Obama did?

This is not likely to last long enough to actually cause our major businesses to go bankrupt anyway.

And you know this how? You've analyzed the cash flows?



That's why there's no need for massive aid to every company.

No one has said it will be to every company.



Tesla has already said they have enough funds to ride this out. GM is closing down many of it's plants as is Ford as they switch direction from gas vehicles to battery. In some ways this will be good for them.

That's incredibly stupid, even for you.


Now they don't have to pay salaries and can spend their time doing engineering and design which they so desperately need to complete to complete the switch over.

Boeing may be a different story. Yes, bankruptcy is one potential result and there is no reason to bail them out without many assurances to the US taxpayers.

--

Rick C.

----- Get 2,000 miles of free Supercharging
----- Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard112

When did most Democrats become Bernie level stupid?

 

[Rick C]

On Tuesday, March 24, 2020 at 1:22:27 PM UTC-4, Whoey Louie wrote:

On Tuesday, March 24, 2020 at 10:51:36 AM UTC-4, Rick C wrote:
On Tuesday, March 24, 2020 at 10:16:08 AM UTC-4, Whoey Louie wrote:
On Monday, March 23, 2020 at 10:09:36 PM UTC-4, mpm wrote:
On Monday, March 23, 2020 at 8:11:51 PM UTC-4, Whoey Louie wrote:
The market will recover and people's investments will return.

Not if the company goes bankrupt. The stockholders typically get wiped
out.


Yeah, that part's not quite true.
And it depends greatly upon the type of bankruptcy.


A reorganization or restructuring writes off debt, but is done so in a manner adjudicated fair by the bankruptcy judge. Nearly all debt holders will take some sort of a haircut, and some get warrants too.


If it's a liquidation (no re-org possible), then the company is sold off and the proceeds go to the debt holders, typically with senior debt paid first, and the rest to subordinated debt (if any monies or value-assets remain).

But people get paid. Ever hear of "Pennies on the dollar"?
Occasionally, people go to prison.


I agree. The point is that with America shut down, we don't have the
time to go through a bankruptcy process for each of the companies and
find out, like Rick wants. It's that simple. Even Obama recognized
that. Today many Democrats have gone Bernie commie crazy. As further
evidence, look at the Democrats trying to queer the emergency stimulus
by trying to put carbon restriction on the airlines in it, insisting
that $30K in student loans be forgiven, etc. Totally nuts.

You are showing that you don't understand the most basic of issues regarding the impact on the economy. Going through bankruptcy won't require businesses to stop doing anything. They can continue to function the entire time.

And what happens when the suppliers have their credit lines reduced,
cut because vendors to them are unsure if their bills will be paid?

You don't know much about business. The smaller suppliers live and die on the larger customers. They give them credit because that's what it takes to get the business. It's only 30 days. It's not like it's a make or break decision for anyone. Don't give them credit and they'll go elsewhere. Everyone will be hurting so there will be plenty of suppliers looking for your business.

What happens to money market funds holding any paper? What happens
to the pension funds that take a hit as the stock goes to zero?
And why do that? Oh, because you and Bernie think it's a great idea
instead of making loans. You want all the above damage to occur and
only then make the loans. REally stupid, even for you. Is that what
Obama did?

WTF are you babbling about? Yes, that is exactly what Obama did, lend money to GM and others through bankruptcy getting a piece of the company in the process. That's where I got the idea.

This is not likely to last long enough to actually cause our major businesses to go bankrupt anyway.

And you know this how? You've analyzed the cash flows?



That's why there's no need for massive aid to every company.

No one has said it will be to every company.



Tesla has already said they have enough funds to ride this out. GM is closing down many of it's plants as is Ford as they switch direction from gas vehicles to battery. In some ways this will be good for them.

That's incredibly stupid, even for you.

Don't talk to me, tell that to Tesla.

Now they don't have to pay salaries and can spend their time doing engineering and design which they so desperately need to complete to complete the switch over.

Boeing may be a different story. Yes, bankruptcy is one potential result and there is no reason to bail them out without many assurances to the US taxpayers.

I think this conversation has reached an end. I hear what you are saying but I don't agree. The main difference is I am not calling you names. When you argue with DLUNU I have a hard time telling who is who because of the excessive personal insults on both sides. I usually skip reading past the first paragraph because the rest is all repetitious insults.

--

Rick C.

---++ Get 2,000 miles of free Supercharging
---++ Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

 

[Rick C]

On Tuesday, March 24, 2020 at 12:40:26 PM UTC-4, edward...@gmail.com wrote:

The "recovered" rate is weird. In the US, the rate is very low, about
0.6%. In some countries it's over 50%.

We have to consider the lag in timing. We (US) are few weeks behind other countries; so, the death and recovery rates are still too early to tell. The medical system can still handle the current load. It is delaying both numbers as well.

You are wasting your time. Larkin has already decided the outcome and only looks for information that supports his belief. He literally won't listen to anything you say unless it supports his preconceptions.

However, he's not totally stupid. He is sheltering in place at home and won't be coming out any sooner than the rest of us.

His level of cognitive dissonance must be tremendous. I guess that's his real skill, splitting his thoughts between what he wants to believe and what he does for self preservation.

--

Rick C.

----+ Get 2,000 miles of free Supercharging
----+ Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

 

[Whoey Louie]

On Tuesday, March 24, 2020 at 12:20:41 PM UTC-4, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:

On Tue, 24 Mar 2020 11:51:28 +0000, Martin Brown
'''newspam'''@nezumi.demon.co.uk> wrote:

On 23/03/2020 19:59, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Mon, 23 Mar 2020 10:47:54 -0700, Robert Baer
robertbaer@localnet.com> wrote:

jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Sat, 21 Mar 2020 19:17:28 -0700 (PDT), edward.ming.lee@gmail.com
wrote:

Don't all seasonal flus grow exponentially? What's special about this
one?
It was a simple question. Can anybody answer it? Or did the dog eat
your homework?

We are still early in the Covid-19 season (as compared to the flu); so, hard to see the effect for some people.

Covid-19 is 2x to 3x more infectious (especially those without symptoms) as the flu, 20x to 50x more deadly, live outside hosts for days and air-borne (WHO is now confirming this).

The Diamond Princess cruise petri dish, visible from our kitchen
window, was about as bad a disease environment as you can get. Less
than 20 per cent of people on board caught the virus. About half of
those had no symptoms. 7 people died out of 3700 passengers, all of
them over 70.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Influenza#Epidemiology

Look at the chart halfway down. Why didn't those killers deserve 24/7
press and lockdowns?

The CDC was one of the first sources to let the public know that the
COVID-19 virus is primarily spread via person-to-person contact, mainly
through sneezes and coughs.

Another possible way of becoming infected is by coming into contact
with a surface that has COVID-19 on it. When someone wipes their nose,
sneezes, or coughs into their hand and touches a surface, there is a
risk of transmission to another person.

Picking it up on your hands and touching your face is generally reckoned
to the the main vector for transmission. One contaminated door knob can
hit a lot of people and so many of them unthinkingly touch their faces.

Shopping cart handles may be a major vector. Our local Safeway is
making no effort to clean them before reuse.


Aerosol you have to be quite close and unlucky. Big risk for medics at
close quarters but a relatively low one if you keep a safe distance.

Is C19 unique among seasonal flus in the way it propagates?

Its about as infectious and an order of magnitude more lethal.

Why are so many people terrified of this one?

It is a novel zoonotic disease so no-one has any immunity to it. Half
the population show almost no symptoms and not everyone with symptoms is
badly affected but those that are and develop complications require very
serious medical intervention to survive it. Viral pneumonia is the
complication which is the most fearsome of its side/after effects.

Left to its own devices it will kill about 3% of the population before
it becomes self limiting. Here are the current statistics:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/


That probably ignores asymptomatics and unreported mild cases, which
may be the majority of cases.

The "recovered" rate is weird. In the US, the rate is very low, about
0.6%. In some countries it's over 50%.

The only country I know of where 50%+ have recovered as of now is China.
We can learn from that, what they did, or just go steaming ahead blindly
in the fog.

Mostly it kills the over 70's but a few unlucky health workers will also
die particularly if the correct PPE is not provided for them.

I suspect that outcome is now unavoidable and all we are doing at
present with the half hearted lock down is delaying the inevitable.

We could maximally protect the people who need it and let it burn out
generally.



UK population behaved like lemmings over the weekend in the spring
sunshine and the virus will have spread to a large part of the country.


--

John Larkin Highland Technology, Inc

The cork popped merrily, and Lord Peter rose to his feet.
"Bunter", he said, "I give you a toast. The triumph of Instinct over Reason"