Is Anyone in Charge of the Response to COVID-19?

[Clifford Heath]

On 22/3/20 10:34 am, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:

On Sat, 21 Mar 2020 14:07:08 -0700, dplatt@coop.radagast.org (Dave
Platt) wrote:

No, there is no _single_ person (or government body) in charge.

The American political system doesn't work that way. Never has,
really. There are (and were) multiple layers of authority and
jurisdiction, which often do not entirely agree.

I don't get it. I thought NYC was in lock down, but it seems the mayor of the city and the Governor of the state are fighting over
this. It was only today that the state of NY is requiring all non-essential personnel to stay home. Really? They are just getting to
this point? I read that Wednesday they required 50% of non-essential workers to stay home, then Thursday 75%. Now, on Friday 100% of
non-essential personnel must stay home because the numbers are still rising. Do these guys think their actions are like adjusting the
faucet? Do they really not understand it takes at least a week to see a result in this situation?

My guess (from out here in the cheap seats) is that they were trying
to reduce the shock to businesses which were going to have to shut
down... give them a day or two of transition time to prepare things
(and employees) for a long layoff.

It was rather more abrupt here in California... both the county-level
"shelter in place" orders, and the subsequent state-level order,
switched to "essential businesses only" without a ramping. Even so,
there's some disagreement between the wording of the county
shelter-in-place orders, and the state-level order, and this has led
to some confusion about just what businesses can stay open at all.

Even the medical personnel don't seem to understand the nature of exponential growth. “The most striking part is the speed with
which it has ramped up", said a Queens ER doctor. Clearly he never spent any time learning about exponential growth.

Well, there's school knowledge (which fades in our memory over time)
and practical hands-on-experience knowledge. As far as I can recall,
this is the first time in the lifetime of most Americans now alive
that we've been faced with a really serious exponential-growth disease
curve (highly contagious, high rate of complications, and little-to-no
immune memory in the population to help). So, in practice, it's a new
situation to most of us.

(Epidemiologists "get it", of course. So do some engineers. I doubt
this situation would have surprised anyone who ever studied the
physics of an atomic bomb.)

Don't all seasonal flus grow exponentially? What's special about this
one?

0) It's not a flu

1) It's much more infectious (easier to catch)

2) It's much more deadly

3) It does more long-term harm to survivors (up to a decade to recover
from lung scarring)

4) We have no known anti-virals that are proven to slow its impact once
you're infected

I could list ten more things, but that's quite enough for a start.

When it's all over, your denialism will still be here on record.
I guess you'll just deny that, too.

CH

 

[Clifford Heath]

On 24/3/20 6:29 am, edward.ming.lee@gmail.com wrote:

On Monday, March 23, 2020 at 10:48:04 AM UTC-7, Robert Baer wrote:
Another possible way of becoming infected is by coming into contact
with a surface that has COVID-19 on it. When someone wipes their nose,
sneezes, or coughs into their hand and touches a surface, there is a
risk of transmission to another person.
Although the CDC said that this "has not been documented" it may be
better to be safe than sorry AND BE EXTREMELY OBSESSIVE IN WIPING DOWN
SURFACES.

Couple of months ago, when the Diamond Princess started to spread, someone said (and i repeated) the virus is likely air-borne. In additional to the DP, some buildings in China got very high rate of cross-infections even in lock-down.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/16/who-considers-airborne-precautions-for-medical-staff-after-study-shows-coronavirus-can-survive-in-air.html

Airborne, yes, but not for long. It's droplets (which settle), not
aerosols (which don't) that are t he main concern.

The droplets can be inhaled (so stay the fuck away from people) or they
can be picked up fro surfaces (usually on your hands) and get into your
body when you touch your eyes or nose, or less likely, your mouth (from
where they are mostly swallowed and digested).

CH

 

On Monday, March 23, 2020 at 5:04:00 PM UTC-7, Clifford Heath wrote:

On 24/3/20 6:29 am, edward.ming.lee@gmail.com wrote:
On Monday, March 23, 2020 at 10:48:04 AM UTC-7, Robert Baer wrote:
Another possible way of becoming infected is by coming into contact
with a surface that has COVID-19 on it. When someone wipes their nose,
sneezes, or coughs into their hand and touches a surface, there is a
risk of transmission to another person.
Although the CDC said that this "has not been documented" it may be
better to be safe than sorry AND BE EXTREMELY OBSESSIVE IN WIPING DOWN
SURFACES.

Couple of months ago, when the Diamond Princess started to spread, someone said (and i repeated) the virus is likely air-borne. In additional to the DP, some buildings in China got very high rate of cross-infections even in lock-down.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/16/who-considers-airborne-precautions-for-medical-staff-after-study-shows-coronavirus-can-survive-in-air.html


Airborne, yes, but not for long. It's droplets (which settle), not
aerosols (which don't) that are t he main concern.

The droplets can be inhaled (so stay the fuck away from people) or they
can be picked up fro surfaces (usually on your hands) and get into your
body when you touch your eyes or nose, or less likely, your mouth (from
where they are mostly swallowed and digested).

CH

Aerosol is concerning because it can be circulated in central HVAC system without proper filtering. The first thing they should have done with DP was to upgrade the filters.

 

[Tom Del Rosso]

jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:

OK, you can't answer it either.

Well I don't refuse to. I just didn't feel qualified.

It seems that although other bugs have exponential growth, the base is
larger with this one.

2.5^2 vs 1.5^2

AIUI.

 

[Bill Sloman]

On Tuesday, March 24, 2020 at 6:59:12 AM UTC+11, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:

On Mon, 23 Mar 2020 10:47:54 -0700, Robert Baer
robertbaer@localnet.com> wrote:

jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Sat, 21 Mar 2020 19:17:28 -0700 (PDT), edward.ming.lee@gmail.com
wrote:

Don't all seasonal flus grow exponentially? What's special about this
one?
It was a simple question. Can anybody answer it? Or did the dog eat
your homework?

We are still early in the Covid-19 season (as compared to the flu); so, hard to see the effect for some people.

Covid-19 is 2x to 3x more infectious (especially those without symptoms) as the flu, 20x to 50x more deadly, live outside hosts for days and air-borne (WHO is now confirming this).

The Diamond Princess cruise petri dish, visible from our kitchen
window, was about as bad a disease environment as you can get. Less
than 20 per cent of people on board caught the virus. About half of
those had no symptoms. 7 people died out of 3700 passengers, all of
them over 70.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Influenza#Epidemiology

Look at the chart halfway down. Why didn't those killers deserve 24/7
press and lockdowns?



The CDC was one of the first sources to let the public know that the
COVID-19 virus is primarily spread via person-to-person contact, mainly
through sneezes and coughs.

Another possible way of becoming infected is by coming into contact
with a surface that has COVID-19 on it. When someone wipes their nose,
sneezes, or coughs into their hand and touches a surface, there is a
risk of transmission to another person.

Is C19 unique among seasonal flus in the way it propagates?

Why are so many people terrified of this one?

You do seem to resist understanding the answer that everybody has been giving you.

Covid-19 is terrifying a lot of people because it kills about an order of magnitude more of the people it infects than seasonal flu does.

It is also more easily transmitted, so more people get sick.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

 

On Mon, 23 Mar 2020 17:52:55 -0700 (PDT), whit3rd <whit3rd@gmail.com>
wrote:

On Monday, March 23, 2020 at 12:59:12 PM UTC-7, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:

Is C19 unique among seasonal flus in the way it propagates?

Not in the way it propagates, just in the lack of immune resistance in its target (us).

Are we all immune to the other viruses? If so, why do we have 34K flu
deaths so far this flu season?



--

John Larkin Highland Technology, Inc

The cork popped merrily, and Lord Peter rose to his feet.
"Bunter", he said, "I give you a toast. The triumph of Instinct over Reason"

 

[Tom Del Rosso]

Rick C wrote:

On Monday, March 23, 2020 at 3:01:12 AM UTC-4, Tom Del Rosso wrote:
Whoey Louie wrote:

Even Trump now admits it's very different. So, he's lying again?

No but lots of people lie about Trump. He blocked travel from China
before most others thought it was a problem.

Even a blind pig finds an acorn once in a while. Trump's xenophobia
actually prompted him to do something good for once.


Here in New York, our far-left Chancellor of Education, Carranza,
ordered school staff not to report symptomatic students and staff to
the Health Department only 10 days ago.

He should be brought up on charges. I would think that was criminal.
Oh wait... he said the labs doing the testing would be reporting to
the health department. So no reporting was blocked.

Or did I read that wrong?

'Health department spokesman Patrick Gallahue said Friday the agency
"was in agreement with DOE on the directive."'

It helps if you get all the facts.

They would say that since the DOH is also run by DeBlasio appointees.

I assume that what that corrupt SOB is doing with Riker's Island has
made national news, so you shouldn't put anything past him.

 

[Rick C]

On Monday, March 23, 2020 at 8:53:00 PM UTC-4, whit3rd wrote:

On Monday, March 23, 2020 at 12:59:12 PM UTC-7, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:

Is C19 unique among seasonal flus in the way it propagates?

Not in the way it propagates, just in the lack of immune resistance in its target (us).

How many times do you have to hear that?

He has never heard it and won't hear it now. He is incapable of hearing anything he doesn't want to hear... not unlike Trump who Fauci said he has to tell as many as four times before something sinks in.

I think Trump is just too old for the job. Like Reagan he got the job, but is not able to process information adequately. At least Trump doesn't fall asleep during meetings. But then it might be better if he did.

--

Rick C.

++-+ Get 2,000 miles of free Supercharging
++-+Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

 

On Mon, 23 Mar 2020 20:54:39 -0400, "Tom Del Rosso"
<fizzbintuesday@that-google-mail-domain.com> wrote:

jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:

OK, you can't answer it either.

Well I don't refuse to. I just didn't feel qualified.

It seems that although other bugs have exponential growth, the base is
larger with this one.

2.5^2 vs 1.5^2

AIUI.

We don't know R0 for this one yet. Most cases are mild or
asymptomatic, never counted. Looks like kids get it and never show
symptoms, just spread it around.

It's amazing how little hard data we have on this one. Maybe that's
the case for all seasonal flus. We just picked this one to panic over.

A different exponent just changes the time scale of an epidemic. The
same exponential-limiting effects will still kick in. No disease grows
exponentially forever, or kills 100% of humanity.



--

John Larkin Highland Technology, Inc

The cork popped merrily, and Lord Peter rose to his feet.
"Bunter", he said, "I give you a toast. The triumph of Instinct over Reason"

 

[whit3rd]

On Monday, March 23, 2020 at 12:59:12 PM UTC-7, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:

> Is C19 unique among seasonal flus in the way it propagates?

Not in the way it propagates, just in the lack of immune resistance in its target (us).

How many times do you have to hear that?

 

[Rick C]

On Monday, March 23, 2020 at 8:09:43 PM UTC-4, Clifford Heath wrote:

On 22/3/20 10:34 am, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:

Don't all seasonal flus grow exponentially? What's special about this
one?

0) It's not a flu

1) It's much more infectious (easier to catch)

2) It's much more deadly

3) It does more long-term harm to survivors (up to a decade to recover
from lung scarring)

4) We have no known anti-virals that are proven to slow its impact once
you're infected

I could list ten more things, but that's quite enough for a start.

When it's all over, your denialism will still be here on record.
I guess you'll just deny that, too.

I don't know why anyone bothers to respond to him about this. You know he isn't going to acknowledge that he heard anything you say. He will either deny it or ignore it.

Maybe Larkin is an ostrich!

--

Rick C.

++-- Get 2,000 miles of free Supercharging
++-- Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

 

[mpm]

On Monday, March 23, 2020 at 7:01:29 PM UTC-4, Rick C wrote:

Yeah, loans, but for the purpose of protecting the economy, not the banks. This time we will make sure the fat cats aren't the only ones to do well from it.

Seriously: Good luck with that.
The fat cats make the rules. (The mice are screwed.)

 

[mpm]

On Monday, March 23, 2020 at 8:11:51 PM UTC-4, Whoey Louie wrote:

The market will recover and people's investments will return.

Not if the company goes bankrupt. The stockholders typically get wiped
out.

Yeah, that part's not quite true.
And it depends greatly upon the type of bankruptcy.

A reorganization or restructuring writes off debt, but is done so in a manner adjudicated fair by the bankruptcy judge. Nearly all debt holders will take some sort of a haircut, and some get warrants too.

If it's a liquidation (no re-org possible), then the company is sold off and the proceeds go to the debt holders, typically with senior debt paid first, and the rest to subordinated debt (if any monies or value-assets remain).

But people get paid. Ever hear of "Pennies on the dollar"?
Occasionally, people go to prison.

 

[Bill Sloman]

On Tuesday, March 24, 2020 at 12:23:47 PM UTC+11, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:

On Mon, 23 Mar 2020 20:54:39 -0400, "Tom Del Rosso"
fizzbintuesday@that-google-mail-domain.com> wrote:

jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:

OK, you can't answer it either.

Well I don't refuse to. I just didn't feel qualified.

It seems that although other bugs have exponential growth, the base is
larger with this one.

2.5^2 vs 1.5^2

AIUI.

We don't know R0 for this one yet.

R0 is a function of the environment in which the infected people move around, infecting other people.

Wuhan illustrates that you can change peoples behaviour in a way that reduces the R0 for the Covid-19 virus to well below one. Italy illustrates that it isn't easy to get there.

> Most cases are mild or asymptomatic, never counted.

For which the evidence is the number of kids who have never been tested for the infection?

John Larkin is good at making insupportable assertions, less good at noticing that they are wishful thinking.

> Looks like kids get it and never show symptoms, just spread it around.

"looks like" here means "I assert without evidence that".

It's amazing how little hard data we have on this one. Maybe that's
the case for all seasonal flus. We just picked this one to panic over.

John Larkin doesn't seem to be able to find or process the hard data that is available.

He's essentially complaining that he is incapable of getting his dead around the evidence that is available, and proceeding to invent his own delusions.

> A different exponent just changes the time scale of an epidemic.

This rather ignores the evidence from Wuhan, where the disease eventually infected only some 80,000 of some eleven million people.

> The same exponential-limiting effects will still kick in. No disease grows exponentially forever, or kills 100% of humanity.

That's argument by tautology. None has yet. If one had we wouldn't be around to make the observation.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

 

[Michael Terrell]

On Monday, March 23, 2020 at 8:53:54 PM UTC-4, edward wrote:

Aerosol is concerning because it can be circulated in central HVAC system without proper filtering. The first thing they should have done with DP was to upgrade the filters.

50+ years ago, we sprayed metal air filters with Endust to trap smaller particles than the filters were made for. That was in a new school, and the same filters may still be in use. They were washed monthly in hot water, and re sprayed then put back into the systems for the gym, cafeteria and other large ares. The classrooms had steam heat, with fans and smaller filters.

 

[Tom Del Rosso]

whit3rd wrote:

On Monday, March 23, 2020 at 12:59:12 PM UTC-7,
jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:

Is C19 unique among seasonal flus in the way it propagates?

Not in the way it propagates, just in the lack of immune resistance
in its target (us).

How many times do you have to hear that?

We don't have immunity to any flu either do we?

With all this reading I'm learning more than I ever knew about flu. A
lot of people get it with no symptoms every year.

 

[Tom Del Rosso]

jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:

On Mon, 23 Mar 2020 20:54:39 -0400, "Tom Del Rosso"
fizzbintuesday@that-google-mail-domain.com> wrote:

jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:

OK, you can't answer it either.

Well I don't refuse to. I just didn't feel qualified.

It seems that although other bugs have exponential growth, the base
is larger with this one.

2.5^2 vs 1.5^2

AIUI.




We don't know R0 for this one yet. Most cases are mild or
asymptomatic, never counted. Looks like kids get it and never show
symptoms, just spread it around.

It's amazing how little hard data we have on this one. Maybe that's
the case for all seasonal flus. We just picked this one to panic over.

A different exponent just changes the time scale of an epidemic. The
same exponential-limiting effects will still kick in. No disease grows
exponentially forever, or kills 100% of humanity.

Maybe we over-reacted just because China and Italy allowed it to get out
of control. It could help if we take a 2-week vacation to sort out who
is infected, whether or not the benefit is worth costing each person a
few thousand dollars (including people who can't afford it), but I don't
see any benefit in making this last longer.

 

[Dave Platt]

In article <qqni7fdro666psu80p5gqu6mpkbumor1li@4ax.com>,
<jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com> wrote:

Is C19 unique among seasonal flus in the way it propagates?

Not in the way it propagates, just in the lack of immune resistance in its target (us).

Are we all immune to the other viruses? If so, why do we have 34K flu
deaths so far this flu season?

John, you're offering up an "excluded middle" straw man here. It's
not an either/or proposition.

As I believe you almost certainly know: we often have significant
resistance (not necessarily immunity) to flu viruses. How resistant
we are to any new strain of flu depends on our own individual medical
history (which strains of flu we've already suffered from, and thus
developed antibodies to), how long it's been since we had them (immune
memory fades with time), and how different the new strain is from the
ones we have developed a prior immunity to.

Flu strains can trigger a pandemic if they've undergone a major shift
in their antigenic profile, since our prior immunity (naturally
acquired or via vaccination) won't react effectively to the new
strain. Swine flu, pandemic Spanish flu, several others in the last
century I believe, behaved this way.

This new coronavirus is so different from the coronaviruses previously
in circulation in the population that the seems to be little or no
prior resistance in the population... and this contributes to it
spreading rapidly and efficiently.

 

[Rick C]

On Monday, March 23, 2020 at 11:32:22 PM UTC-4, Tom Del Rosso wrote:

jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Mon, 23 Mar 2020 20:54:39 -0400, "Tom Del Rosso"
fizzbintuesday@that-google-mail-domain.com> wrote:

jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:

OK, you can't answer it either.

Well I don't refuse to. I just didn't feel qualified.

It seems that although other bugs have exponential growth, the base
is larger with this one.

2.5^2 vs 1.5^2

AIUI.




We don't know R0 for this one yet. Most cases are mild or
asymptomatic, never counted. Looks like kids get it and never show
symptoms, just spread it around.

It's amazing how little hard data we have on this one. Maybe that's
the case for all seasonal flus. We just picked this one to panic over.

A different exponent just changes the time scale of an epidemic. The
same exponential-limiting effects will still kick in. No disease grows
exponentially forever, or kills 100% of humanity.

Maybe we over-reacted just because China and Italy allowed it to get out
of control. It could help if we take a 2-week vacation to sort out who
is infected, whether or not the benefit is worth costing each person a
few thousand dollars (including people who can't afford it), but I don't
see any benefit in making this last longer.

What part of the idea do you not understand??? Today's number is up and the exponential growth continues. It is showing some sign of a slightly lower R0 value, but no real sign of coming off the growth curve.

Now that the numbers by themselves are starting to look scary, there seems to be more concern from the public. That can work in our favor. But there will still be more growth in the numbers because of the latency to confirmed cases. There is even more latency to having an impact on the death rate which is presently 140 per day.

There has been no overreaction on the part of the US. If anything we have waited much too long to act and still have not acted strongly enough.

The only way for us to sort out who is affected is to test everyone in the country. I expect that will be possible by the end of May.

Yes, various countries have allowed it to get out of control and we are one of them, we just don't know it yet because we haven't tested enough people.. That was our single largest failing in this fiasco, not having tests available even with the advance notice the Chinese gave us. At the same time we locked down travel with China, we should have started ramping up usable test kits. Why did anyone think we weren't going to need them? Even without an out of control situation we needed to be able to test EVERYONE who came into the country, not just the ones who appeared sick.

Total fail!

--

Rick C.

+++- Get 2,000 miles of free Supercharging
+++- Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

 

[whit3rd]

On Monday, March 23, 2020 at 8:38:21 PM UTC-7, Tom Del Rosso wrote:

whit3rd wrote:
On Monday, March 23, 2020 at 12:59:12 PM UTC-7,
jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:

Is C19 unique among seasonal flus in the way it propagates?

Not in the way it propagates, just in the lack of immune resistance
in its target (us).

How many times do you have to hear that?

We don't have immunity to any flu either do we?

Of course, for a variant of a disease that has been around for a century (flu), there are lots
of immune folk, because the current season's bug is a very small modification on
those we've had exposure to in the past. If half or more of the population has
antibodies with some effectiveness, that cuts the growth exponent by a factor of two or more.

Reducing the exponent is very effective, even if it isn't total herd immunity. Getting
the infection rate to less than one new case per infected person means the exponential
'growth' is shrinkage.