Is Anyone in Charge of the Response to COVID-19?

On Thu, 26 Mar 2020 19:38:51 -0700 (PDT), whit3rd <whit3rd@gmail.com>
wrote:

On Thursday, March 26, 2020 at 5:50:18 PM UTC-7, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:

No, panic is a social-dynamic phenomenon. It deserves more study.

Oh, you mean like 'financial panic'?

All sorts of panic. Y2K. Climate Change. Russians. Runs on sugar and
gasoline and toilet paper. Sure, financial and real estate too.

What do you mean 'more' study?

I was thinking of dynamic simulations, like we have for the virus now.
Models where we can turn knobs and see what happens.

Si vis pacem, para bellum: if you want peace, prepare for war

Thinking persons (other than suicidal ones) prepare for the future,

Easy for you to say. Who can predict the future? The gain mechanisms
of panic make it a chaotic mechanism. Fear is an energy source with a
lot of distributed gain.


and

if you want health in the future, you need to deal with plague, NOW.

It's not panic (irrational fear), it's planning. And rational response.
If you want to know how it has been studied, 'panic' is the wrong keyword,
you want 'operational research' or 'contingency' or 'resource allocation',
or 'emergency preparation' or 'logistics'.

--

John Larkin Highland Technology, Inc

The cork popped merrily, and Lord Peter rose to his feet.
"Bunter", he said, "I give you a toast. The triumph of Instinct over Reason"

 

[Bill Sloman]

On Friday, March 27, 2020 at 2:17:38 PM UTC+11, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:

On Thu, 26 Mar 2020 19:38:51 -0700 (PDT), whit3rd <whit3rd@gmail.com
wrote:

On Thursday, March 26, 2020 at 5:50:18 PM UTC-7, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:

No, panic is a social-dynamic phenomenon. It deserves more study.

Oh, you mean like 'financial panic'?

All sorts of panic. Y2K. Climate Change. Russians. Runs on sugar and
gasoline and toilet paper. Sure, financial and real estate too.


What do you mean 'more' study?

I was thinking of dynamic simulations, like we have for the virus now.
Models where we can turn knobs and see what happens.

As opposed to the real world, where you can tell people to go in for social distancing until you are blue in the face and the R0 remains stubbornly higher than one.

R0 is the "knob" that the Chinese and the South Koreans have managed to twiddle to give them the result they wanted. Italy has managed to twiddle it down close to one, but they don't seem to have got it enough below one to stop the epidemic. In the US R0 was clearly well over one last week (when today's infectees got infected).

Si vis pacem, para bellum: if you want peace, prepare for war

Thinking persons (other than suicidal ones) prepare for the future,

Easy for you to say. Who can predict the future? The gain mechanisms
of panic make it a chaotic mechanism. Fear is an energy source with a
lot of distributed gain.

John Larkin loves whittering on about chaotic systems. It's a total waste of bandwidth, but seems let him think he is saying something worth posting.

and if you want health in the future, you need to deal with plague, NOW..

It's not panic (irrational fear), it's planning. And rational response..
If you want to know how it has been studied, 'panic' is the wrong keyword,
you want 'operational research' or 'contingency' or 'resource allocation',
or 'emergency preparation' or 'logistics'.

All much too polysyllabic for John Larkin. He favours nice simple explanations.

"There is always a well-known solution to every human problem — neat, plausible, and wrong." H.L. Menken.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

 

[David Brown]

On 26/03/2020 23:19, Rick C wrote:

On Thursday, March 26, 2020 at 6:12:37 PM UTC-4, David Brown wrote:
On 26/03/2020 17:41, Rick C wrote:
On Thursday, March 26, 2020 at 11:11:40 AM UTC-4, David Brown
wrote:

About the only outstanding thing I see in Americans is their
overwhelming belief in the superiority of everything American.

Please don't paint all Americans with a Larkin brush.


I don't.

But would you not agree that a solid proportion of Americans think
that their ways are better than those of any other country? Of
course I don't mean that every American thinks America is the best
in everything - some, such as your good self, have better insight.
But if you were to take a random sampling of Americans, and ask
them how they rate their country in terms of health care,
democracy, opportunities for success, equality and fairness, law
and order, education, etc., - a large majority would put their own
country at the top for nearly everything. This is something you
don't see in other countries (such surveys have been done).

In most other aspects, Americans are pretty much like anyone else
in a modern Western democracy. (And probably much like other
people from other types of societies as well - I just don't know
enough to judge.) All the Americans I have known personally have
been perfectly nice and sensible people - but then, all the
Americans I know have been people who travelled outside their
country and seen at least a little of the rest of the world.

Unlike you, I think that Americans exhibit a healthy amount of
patriotism and loyalty to their country just as most people do around
the world.

I draw a big distinction between being loyal to, supporting and loving
your country, and thinking it is the best in all things. I haven't been
talking about patriotism or loyalty to your country at all. It is good
and healthy to be patriotic (within reason), and that leads to a biased
view of how you view things in your country. But it is not healthy to
have an unrealistic view of the state of your country or its comparison
with other countries.


I am not convinced that America /does/ have a healthy level of
patriotism - in particular, I think the "pledge of allegiance" and
prominence of the American flag in schools is questionable. I will
happily admit that this view is not based on personal knowledge, and I
am very open to hearing different viewpoints here. But my loyalty to my
adoptive country (I moved to Norway 25 years ago) is based on my
knowledge of the country and what it stands for, not on daily
brainwashing and propaganda at school. (I am confident that the same
applies to smarter people and independent thinkers in the USA too - but
there is no doubt that for the majority of people, if you tell them
something repeatedly and consistently through their childhood, they will
believe it without question. It is how most religions work, and how you
get kids to grow up supporting even the most oppressive of regimes.)

Here is an interesting link I bumped into recently. I am not going to
pass judgement on it, and I certainly don't want to start a thread
discussing the details. But you might find it interesting, and I would
value a very brief opinion on it from you, as an independently thinking
American.

<https://markmanson.net/10-things-most-americans-dont-know>

That is likely the single biggest reason why Britain has
gone through Brexit.

I am not sure there is a single overriding reason for Brexit. Idiocy
and ignorance all round, desperation by the prime minister who called
fro the vote, and blind complacency on the part of the "remain" side are
prime candidates. There was certainly a high level of disillusion and
disappointment in the current state of the country before the vote. But
I don't think people voted to leave because they loved their country -
at most, it might be that they hated other countries more than they
hated their own.

Sometimes it can be overdone, others have less loyalty. But most
people in most countries love their country and support it as well as
believe it is the best in many ways.

Most people in most countries love their country and support it, yes.
And that's a good thing.

I think most probably believe their country to be the best in some ways.
But a sign of a healthy, informed and free country is to be able to
criticise - to look at aspects of your country or government and say "we
could do better". The first step to improving things is to see that you
have a problem (or at least a potential for improvement).

Don't you?

I live in Norway. We don't believe we are better than all other
countries in most aspects. We /know/ we are

 

[Michael Terrell]

On Friday, March 27, 2020 at 4:52:27 AM UTC-4, David Brown wrote:

On 26/03/2020 23:19, Rick C wrote:
On Thursday, March 26, 2020 at 6:12:37 PM UTC-4, David Brown wrote:
On 26/03/2020 17:41, Rick C wrote:
On Thursday, March 26, 2020 at 11:11:40 AM UTC-4, David Brown
wrote:

About the only outstanding thing I see in Americans is their
overwhelming belief in the superiority of everything American.

Please don't paint all Americans with a Larkin brush.


I don't.

But would you not agree that a solid proportion of Americans think
that their ways are better than those of any other country? Of
course I don't mean that every American thinks America is the best
in everything - some, such as your good self, have better insight.
But if you were to take a random sampling of Americans, and ask
them how they rate their country in terms of health care,
democracy, opportunities for success, equality and fairness, law
and order, education, etc., - a large majority would put their own
country at the top for nearly everything. This is something you
don't see in other countries (such surveys have been done).

In most other aspects, Americans are pretty much like anyone else
in a modern Western democracy. (And probably much like other
people from other types of societies as well - I just don't know
enough to judge.) All the Americans I have known personally have
been perfectly nice and sensible people - but then, all the
Americans I know have been people who travelled outside their
country and seen at least a little of the rest of the world.

Unlike you, I think that Americans exhibit a healthy amount of
patriotism and loyalty to their country just as most people do around
the world.

I draw a big distinction between being loyal to, supporting and loving
your country, and thinking it is the best in all things. I haven't been
talking about patriotism or loyalty to your country at all. It is good
and healthy to be patriotic (within reason), and that leads to a biased
view of how you view things in your country. But it is not healthy to
have an unrealistic view of the state of your country or its comparison
with other countries.


I am not convinced that America /does/ have a healthy level of
Patriotism - in particular, I think the "Pledge of Allegiance" and
prominence of the American flag in schools is questionable. I will
happily admit that this view is not based on personal knowledge, and I
am very open to hearing different viewpoints here. But my loyalty to my
adoptive country (I moved to Norway 25 years ago) is based on my
knowledge of the country and what it stands for, not on daily
brainwashing and propaganda at school.

School kids in my area compete to attend the Memorial Dy and Veteran's Day ceremonies at our Veterans Park. This is from Elementary through high school. Bands from the high schools perform there, as well.

I graduated a long time ago, but I don't remember anything that was close to 'Daily brainwashing or propaganda'.

 

[Rick C]

On Friday, March 27, 2020 at 4:52:27 AM UTC-4, David Brown wrote:

I live in Norway. We don't believe we are better than all other
countries in most aspects. We /know/ we are

And the truth emerges!

--

Rick C.

-+++- Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
-+++- Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

 

[Lasse Langwadt Christense]

fredag den 27. marts 2020 kl. 10.09.03 UTC+1 skrev Rick C:

On Friday, March 27, 2020 at 4:52:27 AM UTC-4, David Brown wrote:

I live in Norway. We don't believe we are better than all other
countries in most aspects. We /know/ we are

And the truth emerges!

around he re we have this thing, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Law_of_Jante