Is Anyone in Charge of the Response to COVID-19?

[mpm]

On Sunday, March 22, 2020 at 2:02:52 AM UTC-4, Bill Sloman wrote:

You don't know that yet. Today's current cases got infected five days ago or more, and the latest tightening of lock-down hasn't shown up in the new case data yet.

I'm not optimistic - too few images of empty streets in the USA - but we don't know.

I was just going to say the same thing, Bill.
As bad as things are right now, they can ALWAYS get worse.

It's known in engineering circles as the Law of Evolving Systems Dynamics:
"Left unchecked, things tend to go from bad to worse. And then the cycle repeats."

 

On Sunday, March 22, 2020 at 6:03:33 AM UTC-7, mpm wrote:

On Sunday, March 22, 2020 at 2:02:52 AM UTC-4, Bill Sloman wrote:

You don't know that yet. Today's current cases got infected five days ago or more, and the latest tightening of lock-down hasn't shown up in the new case data yet.

I'm not optimistic - too few images of empty streets in the USA - but we don't know.

I was just going to say the same thing, Bill.
As bad as things are right now, they can ALWAYS get worse.

It's known in engineering circles as the Law of Evolving Systems Dynamics:
"Left unchecked, things tend to go from bad to worse. And then the cycle repeats."

It's not Wuhan style. It's not even Italy style. But people are trying to leave now.

Welcome to the Hotel California, you can check out anytime, but you can never leave...

Everyday is Sunday now. Less traffic but not no traffic.

I am still going north and south in central valley. The only thing i miss is a good sit down dinner. Restaurants are now take out only.

Amtrak reduce schedule from 13 to 5 in central valley. Occupancy seems to be down 10%, from 20% down to 10%. There were 2 passengers in the Amtrak train car i was in, around 10 total for the train. I was the only passenger in the connecting bus from Stockton to San Francisco. Great social distancing on Amtrak.

 

[Whoey Louie]

On Saturday, March 21, 2020 at 10:59:33 PM UTC-4, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:

On Sat, 21 Mar 2020 19:17:28 -0700 (PDT), edward.ming.lee@gmail.com
wrote:

Don't all seasonal flus grow exponentially? What's special about this
one?
It was a simple question. Can anybody answer it? Or did the dog eat
your homework?

We are still early in the Covid-19 season (as compared to the flu); so, hard to see the effect for some people.

Covid-19 is 2x to 3x more infectious (especially those without symptoms) as the flu, 20x to 50x more deadly, live outside hosts for days and air-borne (WHO is now confirming this).

The Diamond Princess cruise petri dish, visible from our kitchen
window, was about as bad a disease environment as you can get. Less
than 20 per cent of people on board caught the virus. About half of
those had no symptoms. 7 people died out of 3700 passengers, all of
them over 70.

The DP cases are not over. It's 8 dead as of now, with 135 still
not recovered and 15 still in serious/critical condition. After
how long? You don't typically see that with the flu. So already
the death rate is 1%+, 10x that of the flu. There is your data.
And again, data shows that across the US, 40% of patients hospitalized
are under 54. The death rate will be staggering if we don't flatten
the curve and are unable to provide adequate hospitalization.

 

[Whoey Louie]

On Saturday, March 21, 2020 at 10:17:33 PM UTC-4, edward...@gmail.com wrote:

Don't all seasonal flus grow exponentially? What's special about this
one?
It was a simple question. Can anybody answer it? Or did the dog eat
your homework?

We are still early in the Covid-19 season (as compared to the flu); so, hard to see the effect for some people.

Covid-19 is 2x to 3x more infectious (especially those without symptoms) as the flu, 20x to 50x more deadly, live outside hosts for days and air-borne (WHO is now confirming this).

A good example of that is the Jewish lawyer in Westchester. He got infected,
presumably while in FL. He in turn infected his wife, his two kids,
a friend, where it spread to the friend's wife and all three of their kids,
and he even infected the neighbor who drove him to the hospital.

We have another case here where a man in North Jersey was infected, like from
the above route as it spread. He attended a family event in central NJ,
infecting ten people. Of those ten, a grandmother and three of her
children are now dead, two or three more are in ICU.

You don't typically see that kind of thing with a typical flu season.
It's believed that some of these people are super spreaders, able for
some unknown reason to more easily spread it. Also right now the death
rate of closed cases, ie where people around the world have either recovered
or died is 11%.. You don't see that with flu either.

 

[Whoey Louie]

On Saturday, March 21, 2020 at 10:38:19 PM UTC-4, Bill Sloman wrote:

On Sunday, March 22, 2020 at 1:26:32 PM UTC+11, Whoey Louie wrote:
On Saturday, March 21, 2020 at 9:48:25 PM UTC-4, Bill Sloman wrote:
On Sunday, March 22, 2020 at 11:23:19 AM UTC+11, Whoey Louie wrote:
On Saturday, March 21, 2020 at 7:08:18 PM UTC-4, DecadentLinux...@decadence.org wrote:
dplatt@coop.radagast.org (Dave Platt) wrote in news:s8cikg-g9j.ln1
@coop.radagast.org:

No, there is no _single_ person (or government body) in charge.

The American political system doesn't work that way.

Somebody better tell the Dangerous Buffoon, Donald John Trump then.
That retarded sonofabitch has no clue how the American political system
works.

Obviously he does. He beat Hillary and got elected.

Hillary got three million more popular votes.

That's like the Yankees saying we got more home runs, but we lost the game.

Not exactly. In baseball the home run is the only thing that counts.

I see you're as pig ignorant about baseball as everything else.

 

[Whoey Louie]

On Saturday, March 21, 2020 at 11:57:44 PM UTC-4, DecadentLinux...@decadence.org wrote:

bitrex <user@example.net> wrote in news:ecAdG.438883$Mj1.427686
@fx39.iad:

On 3/21/2020 8:48 PM, DecadentLinuxUserNumeroUno@decadence.org
wrote:
mpm <mpmillard@aol.com> wrote in
news:ebd3df57-1c1b-4962-b6ee-70e9f4590635@googlegroups.com:

On Saturday, March 21, 2020 at 6:03:49 PM UTC-4, Rick C wrote:
Especially telling was Trump's response to the reporter's
question of what to say to people who are afraid. That was his
opportunity to talk to the people and reassure them. Nope, not
Trump.

Trump's probably working 22 hours a day on this Coronavirus
thing.
I'm inclined to give him a pass on it.


Bullshit, boy! Trump has been snotty with the press his entire
tenure. FACT IS... HE CAN'T HANDLE THE TRUTH!

AND I guarantee the lazy jackass gets 6 hrs a day to sleep and
several hours a day ion the waking day to 'rest' away from the
grind
too. You are pathetic to think that lazy bastard actually
responds
to the nation's needs.

THERE IS NO TIME EVER WHERE HE SHOULD HAVE LOST HIS COOL AND
NOT
BEEN DIPLOMATIC IN RESPONSE.

YOU DIG YOU STUPID FUCK!

NOT ONCE, NOT EVER.

CONDUCT UNBECOMING.

Don't expect you to get it.

https://youtu.be/oAOLhi9qWPA

Not exactly Dwight Eisenhower on the eve of Normandy, this guy.


That was 100% staged. Did you hear them all pushing the praise
first. The motherfucker is so desparate about his failed image that
he now DEMANDS praise every time he is on TV. Look back last few
weeks, you'll see it.

We live in a very sad time in the history of the United States of
America. Conduct unbecoming on the part of so many.

And just like how the bad guy always seems to get away and never
jailed or imprisoned, they will slip past getting infected too.

Trump and his team, and his family and basketball teams, and other
favoritisms. And how many millions of all these moneies are going to
be pocketed by these jackasses and their "we're bringing it to market
now", and Trump talking about it all like it is a game and he is
winning. MARKET? THIS IS A CRISIS. THERE IS NO MARKET IN A CRISIS!

No crying in baseball and no retarded idiots in the white house. I
thought you ALL knew that!

They are all Republicans, as are you. You are enabling Trump.
look in the mirror.

 

[Whoey Louie]

On Sunday, March 22, 2020 at 1:24:18 PM UTC-4, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:

On Sat, 21 Mar 2020 20:15:45 -0700 (PDT), edward.ming.lee@gmail.com
wrote:

On Saturday, March 21, 2020 at 7:59:33 PM UTC-7, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Sat, 21 Mar 2020 19:17:28 -0700 (PDT), edward.ming.lee@gmail.com
wrote:

Don't all seasonal flus grow exponentially? What's special about this
one?
It was a simple question. Can anybody answer it? Or did the dog eat
your homework?

We are still early in the Covid-19 season (as compared to the flu); so, hard to see the effect for some people.

Covid-19 is 2x to 3x more infectious (especially those without symptoms) as the flu, 20x to 50x more deadly, live outside hosts for days and air-borne (WHO is now confirming this).

The Diamond Princess cruise petri dish, visible from our kitchen
window, was about as bad a disease environment as you can get. Less
than 20 per cent of people on board caught the virus. About half of
those had no symptoms. 7 people died out of 3700 passengers, all of
them over 70.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Influenza#Epidemiology

Look at the chart halfway down. Why didn't those killers deserve 24/7
press and lockdowns?

Those have been going on for many years. This is the first year for Covid-19. We can come back and compare them in a few years.

Yes. A flu virus got a fancy name and scary pictures and 24/7 press
coverage. Any seasonal flu could have had that honor.

So, Trump your hero is lying again when even he now admits this isn't
the flu? And no, any seasonal flu could not have the same results.
Many people have immunity or partial immunity to the flu because
they have been exposed before. And this has symptoms far worse
than the flu. 40% of patients hospitalized are under 54. 11%+
of closed cases around the world are DEAD. Even your Diamond Princess
test case, that YOU brought up, has a death rate right now of 1%+
with 15 patients still in critical condition over a month later.
That is NOT the flu.

There seems to be an antibody test now. To determine the death rate of
this virus, we need to know the denominator. Something like 80% of the
infections are mild or asymptomatic, so we don't know how many people
get it, or what the infection vs time curve actually is.

Do you ever look at what's happening around the world, Italy for example?
Or do you just live in some trumptard bubble?

This could be another 1918, or it could be a common, probably mild,
seasonal corona flu.

No words for that one.



>

 

On Sat, 21 Mar 2020 20:15:45 -0700 (PDT), edward.ming.lee@gmail.com
wrote:

On Saturday, March 21, 2020 at 7:59:33 PM UTC-7, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Sat, 21 Mar 2020 19:17:28 -0700 (PDT), edward.ming.lee@gmail.com
wrote:

Don't all seasonal flus grow exponentially? What's special about this
one?
It was a simple question. Can anybody answer it? Or did the dog eat
your homework?

We are still early in the Covid-19 season (as compared to the flu); so, hard to see the effect for some people.

Covid-19 is 2x to 3x more infectious (especially those without symptoms) as the flu, 20x to 50x more deadly, live outside hosts for days and air-borne (WHO is now confirming this).

The Diamond Princess cruise petri dish, visible from our kitchen
window, was about as bad a disease environment as you can get. Less
than 20 per cent of people on board caught the virus. About half of
those had no symptoms. 7 people died out of 3700 passengers, all of
them over 70.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Influenza#Epidemiology

Look at the chart halfway down. Why didn't those killers deserve 24/7
press and lockdowns?

Those have been going on for many years. This is the first year for Covid-19. We can come back and compare them in a few years.

Yes. A flu virus got a fancy name and scary pictures and 24/7 press
coverage. Any seasonal flu could have had that honor.

There seems to be an antibody test now. To determine the death rate of
this virus, we need to know the denominator. Something like 80% of the
infections are mild or asymptomatic, so we don't know how many people
get it, or what the infection vs time curve actually is.

This could be another 1918, or it could be a common, probably mild,
seasonal corona flu.

Panic buying is interesting dynamics. People stripped the stores of
toilet paper and pasta and flour. Now that they have heaps of that at
home, they are shifting their panic buying to other stuff.

All panics have interesting dynamics. If people develop, and maintain,
habits that reduce virus spread, that will be a long-term benefit.



--

John Larkin Highland Technology, Inc

The cork popped merrily, and Lord Peter rose to his feet.
"Bunter", he said, "I give you a toast. The triumph of Instinct over Reason"

 

[Rick C]

On Sunday, March 22, 2020 at 2:22:54 PM UTC-4, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:

On Sat, 21 Mar 2020 21:53:40 -0700 (PDT), whit3rd <whit3rd@gmail.com
wrote:

On Saturday, March 21, 2020 at 4:34:51 PM UTC-7, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:

Don't all seasonal flus grow exponentially? What's special about this
one?

The roughly 100% susceptibility of individuals (no immunity from previous similar
strains), and the roughly 3:1 spread from each unaware-but-ill individual.


Aboard the Diamond Princess, under 20% of the passengers got it. Half
of those were asymptomatic. Out of 3700 passengers, seven died, all
over 70.

The usual BS. A few facts and no thinking. Do you have anything to say about these numbers???

--

Rick C.

--+- Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
--+- Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

 

[Rick C]

On Sunday, March 22, 2020 at 1:24:18 PM UTC-4, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:

This could be another 1918, or it could be a common, probably mild,
seasonal corona flu.

This is pretty amazing. JL just acknowledged this could be a very bad disease.

He is still in denial that it might be another seasonal flu though. We've already reached that point even if the requisite number of people haven't died.... yet. What many don't get is that there are a LOT of infected people who have yet to be counted because of the incubation period. So we likely already have close to 100,000 infected. Even with our efforts to contain the spread of this disease we likely will have a million infected and probably many more. Do the math and we end up with 30,000 or 40,000 dead even with our extreme measures to stop the carnage.

No, only a true, unrelenting, abject idiot would continue to compare this to the seasonal flu. You have to be one nasty piece of work to believe that..

--

Rick C.

---- Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
---- Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

 

On Sat, 21 Mar 2020 21:53:40 -0700 (PDT), whit3rd <whit3rd@gmail.com>
wrote:

On Saturday, March 21, 2020 at 4:34:51 PM UTC-7, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:

Don't all seasonal flus grow exponentially? What's special about this
one?

The roughly 100% susceptibility of individuals (no immunity from previous similar
strains), and the roughly 3:1 spread from each unaware-but-ill individual.

Aboard the Diamond Princess, under 20% of the passengers got it. Half
of those were asymptomatic. Out of 3700 passengers, seven died, all
over 70.



--

John Larkin Highland Technology, Inc

The cork popped merrily, and Lord Peter rose to his feet.
"Bunter", he said, "I give you a toast. The triumph of Instinct over Reason"

 

[Rick C]

On Sunday, March 22, 2020 at 1:30:45 PM UTC-4, Whoey Louie wrote:

Also right now the death
rate of closed cases, ie where people around the world have either recovered
or died is 11%.. You don't see that with flu either.

To be even handed, that is not a realistic number. The number of recovered typically lags by a significant margin because they don't chalk up a win because the person is getting better. You aren't counted as recovered until you have tested negative twice in subsequent days. That ratio is only useful towards the end of the infection as they have in China and the rate is about 3.4%.

--

Rick C.

---+ Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
---+ Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

 

On Sun, 22 Mar 2020 10:41:48 -0700 (PDT), Whoey Louie
<trader4@optonline.net> wrote:

On Sunday, March 22, 2020 at 1:24:18 PM UTC-4, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Sat, 21 Mar 2020 20:15:45 -0700 (PDT), edward.ming.lee@gmail.com
wrote:

On Saturday, March 21, 2020 at 7:59:33 PM UTC-7, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Sat, 21 Mar 2020 19:17:28 -0700 (PDT), edward.ming.lee@gmail.com
wrote:

Don't all seasonal flus grow exponentially? What's special about this
one?
It was a simple question. Can anybody answer it? Or did the dog eat
your homework?

We are still early in the Covid-19 season (as compared to the flu); so, hard to see the effect for some people.

Covid-19 is 2x to 3x more infectious (especially those without symptoms) as the flu, 20x to 50x more deadly, live outside hosts for days and air-borne (WHO is now confirming this).

The Diamond Princess cruise petri dish, visible from our kitchen
window, was about as bad a disease environment as you can get. Less
than 20 per cent of people on board caught the virus. About half of
those had no symptoms. 7 people died out of 3700 passengers, all of
them over 70.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Influenza#Epidemiology

Look at the chart halfway down. Why didn't those killers deserve 24/7
press and lockdowns?

Those have been going on for many years. This is the first year for Covid-19. We can come back and compare them in a few years.

Yes. A flu virus got a fancy name and scary pictures and 24/7 press
coverage. Any seasonal flu could have had that honor.

So, Trump your hero is lying again when even he now admits this isn't
the flu? And no, any seasonal flu could not have the same results.

Right. Some have been much worse.



--

John Larkin Highland Technology, Inc

The cork popped merrily, and Lord Peter rose to his feet.
"Bunter", he said, "I give you a toast. The triumph of Instinct over Reason"

 

[Rick C]

On Sunday, March 22, 2020 at 6:57:56 AM UTC-4, Andy Bennet wrote:

Do what 'mericans don't
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Hks6Nq7g6P4

That's a good one, but I just read something talking about how including humorous material in your presentation blunts learning by your audience. I'm pretty sure this won't actually impact many thinkers even if it is spot on.

--

Rick C.

+++ Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
+++ Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

 

[Whoey Louie]

On Sunday, March 22, 2020 at 2:25:26 PM UTC-4, Rick C wrote:

On Sunday, March 22, 2020 at 1:30:45 PM UTC-4, Whoey Louie wrote:
Also right now the death
rate of closed cases, ie where people around the world have either recovered
or died is 11%.. You don't see that with flu either.

To be even handed, that is not a realistic number. The number of recovered typically lags by a significant margin because they don't chalk up a win because the person is getting better. You aren't counted as recovered until you have tested negative twice in subsequent days. That ratio is only useful towards the end of the infection as they have in China and the rate is about 3.4%.

I agree, but I bet if you look at the beginning of the flu, when it's starting
to accelerate around the world, with 100K closed cases you would not see 11%
either. The 3.4% number is 34x the flu. It's also possible that it's mutated
into a deadlier strain since leaving China too. For example somehow young
people here, in France, Italy are being hit harder than in China and no one
knows why.

--

Rick C.

---+ Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
---+ Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

 

[Whoey Louie]

On Sunday, March 22, 2020 at 2:21:41 PM UTC-4, Rick C wrote:

On Sunday, March 22, 2020 at 1:24:18 PM UTC-4, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:

This could be another 1918, or it could be a common, probably mild,
seasonal corona flu.

This is pretty amazing. JL just acknowledged this could be a very bad disease.

He is still in denial that it might be another seasonal flu though. We've already reached that point even if the requisite number of people haven't died.... yet. What many don't get is that there are a LOT of infected people who have yet to be counted because of the incubation period. So we likely already have close to 100,000 infected. Even with our efforts to contain the spread of this disease we likely will have a million infected and probably many more. Do the math and we end up with 30,000 or 40,000 dead even with our extreme measures to stop the carnage.

That just shoots your whole argument. We're not in a panic, shutting
down the world economy because 40K people die from the flu here.
If it was 40K, we'd be plowing right through it, which would be the
right thing to do. Shutting down the economy will result in future
deaths of some considerable number too. If this were a bad flu,
70K dead, we could and would just keep the economy going. If we didn't
do what we're doing the Covid deaths would likely be in the hundreds
of thousands, maybe much more.

No, only a true, unrelenting, abject idiot would continue to compare this to the seasonal flu. You have to be one nasty piece of work to believe that.

--

Rick C.

---- Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
---- Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

 

The usual BS. A few facts and no thinking. Do you have anything to say about these numbers???

--

Rick C.

Here are the facts: in the USA your state has this number of
tested people and positive virus results:

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/03/how-many-people-tested-sick-coronavirus-covid-each-state-america/608413/

Hawaii 311 tested 48 positive 0 deaths

California 12000 1500 27

West Virginia 398 12 0

Shelter in place

 

[Whoey Louie]

On Sunday, March 22, 2020 at 2:32:28 PM UTC-4, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:

On Sun, 22 Mar 2020 10:41:48 -0700 (PDT), Whoey Louie
trader4@optonline.net> wrote:

On Sunday, March 22, 2020 at 1:24:18 PM UTC-4, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Sat, 21 Mar 2020 20:15:45 -0700 (PDT), edward.ming.lee@gmail.com
wrote:

On Saturday, March 21, 2020 at 7:59:33 PM UTC-7, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Sat, 21 Mar 2020 19:17:28 -0700 (PDT), edward.ming.lee@gmail.com
wrote:

Don't all seasonal flus grow exponentially? What's special about this
one?
It was a simple question. Can anybody answer it? Or did the dog eat
your homework?

We are still early in the Covid-19 season (as compared to the flu); so, hard to see the effect for some people.

Covid-19 is 2x to 3x more infectious (especially those without symptoms) as the flu, 20x to 50x more deadly, live outside hosts for days and air-borne (WHO is now confirming this).

The Diamond Princess cruise petri dish, visible from our kitchen
window, was about as bad a disease environment as you can get. Less
than 20 per cent of people on board caught the virus. About half of
those had no symptoms. 7 people died out of 3700 passengers, all of
them over 70.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Influenza#Epidemiology

Look at the chart halfway down. Why didn't those killers deserve 24/7
press and lockdowns?

Those have been going on for many years. This is the first year for Covid-19. We can come back and compare them in a few years.

Yes. A flu virus got a fancy name and scary pictures and 24/7 press
coverage. Any seasonal flu could have had that honor.

So, Trump your hero is lying again when even he now admits this isn't
the flu? And no, any seasonal flu could not have the same results.

Right. Some have been much worse.

Yes, like the Spanish Flu, 1918. Most of us learned from that. You
want to repeat it.

 

On Saturday, March 21, 2020 at 5:20:32 PM UTC-4, Whoey Louie wrote:

On Saturday, March 21, 2020 at 5:07:41 PM UTC-4, Dave Platt wrote:
No, there is no _single_ person (or government body) in charge.
snip

That's true, but you'd think the federal govt with all the billions
spent on the CDC, FEMA, etc would have thought all this through, would
have had a 1000 page document that a president could call upon when
it hits, instead of figuring it out on the fly. Part of that plan
should have been for multiple paths to a test kit. Instead we relied
on one with a single point of failure.





(Epidemiologists "get it", of course. So do some engineers. I doubt
this situation would have surprised anyone who ever studied the
physics of an atomic bomb.)

Looks like it's going to be a tough ride.

Yup.

My understanding is that FEMA in conjunction with CDC and DHS *does (did?)* have a plan for action for this type of problem. It was shaped by the Ebola and SARS incidents as well as the lessons learned from hurricane disasters over the last 15 years. Have you seen/heard much from them? The first time I heard anything from FEMA was a day or so ago - an official was describing how they are securing beds, setting up make shift hospitals, etc. I would have expected testing procedures, marshaling of equipment and supplies, logistics, etc.)
Where was their presence before that?
King trump with his superior intellect purposely minimized their involvement so he could claim that 1) he and his group are 'in control' (I feel *so much better* now that Jared is in charge), and 2) he can support his claim that he inherited a broken system (specifically the broken system that came from Obama, and btw, as a fait accompli, *everything* from Obama, and before, was broken.)

My reading of various news sources today indicates FEMA is getting more airplay and involvement.
J

 

On Saturday, March 21, 2020 at 7:34:51 PM UTC-4, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:

On Sat, 21 Mar 2020 14:07:08 -0700, dplatt@coop.radagast.org (Dave
Platt) wrote:

No, there is no _single_ person (or government body) in charge.

The American political system doesn't work that way. Never has,
really. There are (and were) multiple layers of authority and
jurisdiction, which often do not entirely agree.

I don't get it. I thought NYC was in lock down, but it seems the mayor of the city and the Governor of the state are fighting over
this. It was only today that the state of NY is requiring all non-essential personnel to stay home. Really? They are just getting to
this point? I read that Wednesday they required 50% of non-essential workers to stay home, then Thursday 75%. Now, on Friday 100% of
non-essential personnel must stay home because the numbers are still rising. Do these guys think their actions are like adjusting the
faucet? Do they really not understand it takes at least a week to see a result in this situation?

My guess (from out here in the cheap seats) is that they were trying
to reduce the shock to businesses which were going to have to shut
down... give them a day or two of transition time to prepare things
(and employees) for a long layoff.

It was rather more abrupt here in California... both the county-level
"shelter in place" orders, and the subsequent state-level order,
switched to "essential businesses only" without a ramping. Even so,
there's some disagreement between the wording of the county
shelter-in-place orders, and the state-level order, and this has led
to some confusion about just what businesses can stay open at all.

Even the medical personnel don't seem to understand the nature of exponential growth. “The most striking part is the speed with
which it has ramped up", said a Queens ER doctor. Clearly he never spent any time learning about exponential growth.

Well, there's school knowledge (which fades in our memory over time)
and practical hands-on-experience knowledge. As far as I can recall,
this is the first time in the lifetime of most Americans now alive
that we've been faced with a really serious exponential-growth disease
curve (highly contagious, high rate of complications, and little-to-no
immune memory in the population to help). So, in practice, it's a new
situation to most of us.

(Epidemiologists "get it", of course. So do some engineers. I doubt
this situation would have surprised anyone who ever studied the
physics of an atomic bomb.)

Don't all seasonal flus grow exponentially? What's special about this
one?



--

John Larkin Highland Technology, Inc

The cork popped merrily, and Lord Peter rose to his feet.
"Bunter", he said, "I give you a toast. The triumph of Instinct over Reason"

There are really intricate math models that predict the rate of infection growth with a lot of variables to play with that would provide some insight as to proliferation and geographic densities. Its a model, probably no better that 50% accurate for any one set of parameters.....what is interesting to me is that I haven't seen any news about these models or predictions. Maybe because the results are too scary, or, there are way to may variables to adjust to reflect reality...
Then again, doing the modeling is probably OBE'ed at this point