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On Saturday, March 21, 2020 at 7:59:16 PM UTC-4, Rick C wrote:
To further confuse things, on the nightly news they just said that for
areas with high infection testing will now be only for people admitted
to the hospital. Googling I see it says that it will also include
healthcare workers. So, IDK, mass confusion. NY had just opened a
few drive-thru locations in the NYC area. Northern NJ has one, another
opening in central NJ Monday. In NJ they had been doing anyone that
had symptoms, did about 600 a day. Now what? I know one thing for
sure it doesn't square with Trump's claim almost two weeks ago that
anyone that needs a test can get a test. Or with the BS about a million
test kits shipped, millions more rapidly rolling out.
On Saturday, March 21, 2020 at 7:11:50 PM UTC-4, bitrex wrote:
On 3/21/2020 6:03 PM, Rick C wrote:
On Saturday, March 21, 2020 at 5:07:41 PM UTC-4, Dave Platt wrote:
No, there is no _single_ person (or government body) in charge.
The American political system doesn't work that way. Never has,
really. There are (and were) multiple layers of authority and
jurisdiction, which often do not entirely agree.
Of course there will be a single entity making the major decisions in a major crisis. That's the only way to run anything in a crisis. When you need control the US system does provide for that which is why Trump invoked the Defense Production Act. The problem is everyone in authority still seems to be in denial about the extent of the problem.
I don't get it. I thought NYC was in lock down, but it seems the mayor of the city and the Governor of the state are fighting over
this. It was only today that the state of NY is requiring all non-essential personnel to stay home. Really? They are just getting to
this point? I read that Wednesday they required 50% of non-essential workers to stay home, then Thursday 75%. Now, on Friday 100% of
non-essential personnel must stay home because the numbers are still rising. Do these guys think their actions are like adjusting the
faucet? Do they really not understand it takes at least a week to see a result in this situation?
My guess (from out here in the cheap seats) is that they were trying
to reduce the shock to businesses which were going to have to shut
down... give them a day or two of transition time to prepare things
(and employees) for a long layoff.
I don't think that really makes any sense. Changing the status on a day by day basis doesn't reduce shock, it extends it. The real problem is no one knows what to expect next.
It was rather more abrupt here in California... both the county-level
"shelter in place" orders, and the subsequent state-level order,
switched to "essential businesses only" without a ramping. Even so,
there's some disagreement between the wording of the county
shelter-in-place orders, and the state-level order, and this has led
to some confusion about just what businesses can stay open at all.
I would not expect everything to be perfectly clear. This is a unique crisis and we are writing the playbook as we go along. My concerns are with the apparent lack of understanding of the extent of the problem. It seems that either the leaders are being given bad advice or are just ignoring it.
Even the medical personnel don't seem to understand the nature of exponential growth. âThe most striking part is the speed with
which it has ramped up", said a Queens ER doctor. Clearly he never spent any time learning about exponential growth.
Well, there's school knowledge (which fades in our memory over time)
and practical hands-on-experience knowledge. As far as I can recall,
this is the first time in the lifetime of most Americans now alive
that we've been faced with a really serious exponential-growth disease
curve (highly contagious, high rate of complications, and little-to-no
immune memory in the population to help). So, in practice, it's a new
situation to most of us.
The swine flu was pretty much the same thing. We simply were not faced with the same level of deaths. Even so the number reached 12,000. That's nothing to sneeze at (no pun intended). The spread was the same exponential.
(Epidemiologists "get it", of course. So do some engineers. I doubt
this situation would have surprised anyone who ever studied the
physics of an atomic bomb.)
I just can't imagine the briefings going on within all the governments in the US.
Leader: So what can we expect over the coming weeks?
Advisor: If we maintain the course of "social distancing" we will first see the number of seriously ill to grow slowly but after not many days the growth rate will rise dramatically. Shortly after that the numbers will overwhelm the hospitals and other care systems. This will all happen within about four weeks. To prevent this requires a lock down of the population reducing contact to the absolute minimum to allow for distribution of food and essentials.
Leader: Ok, so we don't need to close the beaches or bars or restaurants. We can recommend to keep the group sizes to 10 and under and space from other people of six feet, right? We don't need to close work spaces and inconvenience businesses?
Advisor: (palms head and looks down at the table) Ok, that sounds good. I guess it's more important to keep the economy healthy than people. BTW, what happens when... never mind.
Especially telling was Trump's response to the reporter's question of what to say to people who are afraid. That was his opportunity to talk to the people and reassure them. Nope, not Trump.
âNational Guard members should also be posted at hospitals to assure
restricted visitation is followed without having to pull direct care
staff away from patient care,â she writes. âUnfortunately, we cannot
rely on all members of the public to adhere to all directives issued by
the state and federal government. Bringing in the National Guard will
free up staff resources from having to police these issues.â
https://www.bostonherald.com/2020/03/19/nurses-call-for-national-guard-help-blizzard-of-78-travel-restrictions-over-coronavirus/
The plan in Massachusetts seems to be to mobilize the National Guard,
deploy them to any hospitals that get filled and turn people away at
gunpoint.
If that is an accurate quote, the object is to prevent non-patients from visiting patients which is an entirely reasonable goal. I've had doctors recommend to not visit hospitals because they are breeding grounds for disease without the CV.
I can't see how the National Guard will be required. That's just silly. The hospitals I've been in have an adequate number of security people to handle this sort of problem.
--
Rick C.
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To further confuse things, on the nightly news they just said that for
areas with high infection testing will now be only for people admitted
to the hospital. Googling I see it says that it will also include
healthcare workers. So, IDK, mass confusion. NY had just opened a
few drive-thru locations in the NYC area. Northern NJ has one, another
opening in central NJ Monday. In NJ they had been doing anyone that
had symptoms, did about 600 a day. Now what? I know one thing for
sure it doesn't square with Trump's claim almost two weeks ago that
anyone that needs a test can get a test. Or with the BS about a million
test kits shipped, millions more rapidly rolling out.