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On Thu, 02 Apr 2020 15:59:31 +0100, <edward.ming.lee@gmail.com> wrote:
On Thursday, April 2, 2020 at 7:51:42 AM UTC-7, Commander Kinsey wrote:
On Mon, 30 Mar 2020 15:50:10 +0100, <jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com> wrote:
On Mon, 30 Mar 2020 09:43:12 +0100, Martin Brown
'''newspam'''@nezumi.demon.co.uk> wrote:
On 28/03/2020 02:41, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Sat, 28 Mar 2020 01:27:07 +0000, Tom Gardner
spamjunk@blueyonder.co.uk> wrote:
On 27/03/20 22:38, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
About 2.8 million people die in the US every year. 216K of those are
considered to be upper respiratory or flu/pneumonia. C19 has
officially killed 1544 so far.
The key phrase there is "so far".
US dailies are down slightly from yesterday, but the data is so noisy
that it will take a week or a month to really spot a trend. Some
european countries seem to have peaked. Different countries, even
neighbors, have very different patterns. There must be a lot of bad
data going around.
The only European country that might perhaps be close to peaking is
Italy but their health system is now so close to collapse that they are
airlifting some critical patients to German hospitals for ICU.
UK is expected to peak in May or June if the social distancing measures
are effective. Death rate peaks about two weeks after the daily
infection count reaches its highest point (typical residence time in
ICU). Fatalities will be much higher if ICU capacity is inadequate.
One thing you really should be worried by is that the US growth curve is
running ahead of Italy at the corresponding position. This is rather
surprising given that we know the sorts of things you should not do..
http://nrg.cs.ucl.ac.uk/mjh/covid19/#wn
That's the integral of cases, but the slopes are all declining.
Doubling time in the UK, Italy and Spain is presently 3 days. In the USA
it is 2 days and in Japan it is presently 8 days (though unclear how
much longer they can hold that line without taking further measures).
This site
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
has good graphs, but is's getting too popular/slow lately.
It doesn't matter how many catch it, we know that 4% of people who get it die. So the absolute maximum death toll is 4% of the world. That's far preferable to the stupid over the top government restrictions which will see the world economy collapse and countless business go bankrupt. Why not just lock in the vulnerable (elderly etc) people and let everyone else just have a week's sick days off work if they happen to catch it? Because that's all most people get, 7 days of lying in bed.
Yes, sir:
4% to 6% die, but 20% to 30% get diminished lung capacities due to tissue damages. I think we should avoid it and control the damages.
What we should be doing is sending China the bill. That's TWICE they've sent out a virus due to unclean wet meat markets. TWICE. They clearly didn't learn from SARS.
On Thu, 02 Apr 2020 19:11:55 +0100, John Larkin <jlarkin@highland_atwork_technology.com> wrote:
On Thu, 02 Apr 2020 17:22:33 +0100, "Commander Kinsey"
CFKinsey@military.org.jp> wrote:
On Thu, 02 Apr 2020 16:50:01 +0100, <jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com> wrote:
On Thu, 02 Apr 2020 16:22:20 +0100, "Commander Kinsey"
CFKinsey@military.org.jp> wrote:
On Thu, 02 Apr 2020 16:18:04 +0100, <jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com> wrote:
On Thu, 02 Apr 2020 15:51:38 +0100, "Commander Kinsey"
CFKinsey@military.org.jp> wrote:
On Mon, 30 Mar 2020 15:50:10 +0100, <jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com> wrote:
On Mon, 30 Mar 2020 09:43:12 +0100, Martin Brown
'''newspam'''@nezumi.demon.co.uk> wrote:
On 28/03/2020 02:41, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Sat, 28 Mar 2020 01:27:07 +0000, Tom Gardner
spamjunk@blueyonder.co.uk> wrote:
On 27/03/20 22:38, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
About 2.8 million people die in the US every year. 216K of those are
considered to be upper respiratory or flu/pneumonia. C19 has
officially killed 1544 so far.
The key phrase there is "so far".
US dailies are down slightly from yesterday, but the data is so noisy
that it will take a week or a month to really spot a trend. Some
european countries seem to have peaked. Different countries, even
neighbors, have very different patterns. There must be a lot of bad
data going around.
The only European country that might perhaps be close to peaking is
Italy but their health system is now so close to collapse that they are
airlifting some critical patients to German hospitals for ICU.
UK is expected to peak in May or June if the social distancing measures
are effective. Death rate peaks about two weeks after the daily
infection count reaches its highest point (typical residence time in
ICU). Fatalities will be much higher if ICU capacity is inadequate.
One thing you really should be worried by is that the US growth curve is
running ahead of Italy at the corresponding position. This is rather
surprising given that we know the sorts of things you should not do.
http://nrg.cs.ucl.ac.uk/mjh/covid19/#wn
That's the integral of cases, but the slopes are all declining.
Doubling time in the UK, Italy and Spain is presently 3 days. In the USA
it is 2 days and in Japan it is presently 8 days (though unclear how
much longer they can hold that line without taking further measures).
This site
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
has good graphs, but is's getting too popular/slow lately.
It doesn't matter how many catch it, we know that 4% of people who get it die.
Probably not. It might kill 4% of the people who were already sick and
are in hospitals with respiratory problems, and who have tested
positive for this virus. We don't know how many have been infected.
Maybe 2x, maybe 200x the official count.
It kills almost everybody in hospitals, as they're the ones that are most vulnerable to it.
Absolutely untrue, even among old people. Look it up.
It depends which lying news broadcaster bribed by the government that you believe.
I very much doubt we have the count of infections out by much. Why would we?
Because we only test people who are very sick and seem to have it. We
don't know how many have it and ignore it, or how many had it before
tests were available.
Easily worked out by guesswork, or random checking. Just like you don't have to ask every single person in the country which way they're going to vote to get a fairly accurate idea.
What we have a lot of is fear, panic, press, politics, and bad data.
Agreed. Which is why we should have ignored it entirely and let it run its course just like a cold or flu.
We could do voluntary social distancing, wipe down handrails, do some
basic sanitary stuff that we should always do. And isolate/protect old
and sick people, which we should also always do.
Indeed, as I said earlier, we only need to protect the elderly and anyone with a medical problem that means they couldn't handle corona aswell. Most of us will just have a week in bed when we get it.
The lockdowns are trashing the economy, which hurts people, and are
probably not going to save many lives. We didn't lockdown in any of
the last few pandemics.
Indeed.
I expect some gigantic disruptions to the electronic supply chain. We
had a buying panic over some values of ceramic caps last year. You
ain't seen nothin yet.
I've already found it:
Difficult to buy the food I want.
Impossible to buy a chest freezer.
Expensive to buy brewing sugar of all things.
Very expensive (times 5 cost) to buy a home gym or weights.
We are doing a giant parts breakdown run now, and buying for a lot of
likely production, before the big panics. If we over-buy, we'll use
most of it eventually.
So you're adding to the panics.
On Thu, 02 Apr 2020 16:01:42 +0100, "Commander Kinsey"
CFKinsey@military.org.jp> wrote:
On Thu, 02 Apr 2020 15:59:31 +0100, <edward.ming.lee@gmail.com> wrote:
On Thursday, April 2, 2020 at 7:51:42 AM UTC-7, Commander Kinsey wrote:
On Mon, 30 Mar 2020 15:50:10 +0100, <jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com> wrote:
On Mon, 30 Mar 2020 09:43:12 +0100, Martin Brown
'''newspam'''@nezumi.demon.co.uk> wrote:
On 28/03/2020 02:41, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Sat, 28 Mar 2020 01:27:07 +0000, Tom Gardner
spamjunk@blueyonder.co.uk> wrote:
On 27/03/20 22:38, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
About 2.8 million people die in the US every year. 216K of those are
considered to be upper respiratory or flu/pneumonia. C19 has
officially killed 1544 so far.
The key phrase there is "so far".
US dailies are down slightly from yesterday, but the data is so noisy
that it will take a week or a month to really spot a trend. Some
european countries seem to have peaked. Different countries, even
neighbors, have very different patterns. There must be a lot of bad
data going around.
The only European country that might perhaps be close to peaking is
Italy but their health system is now so close to collapse that they are
airlifting some critical patients to German hospitals for ICU.
UK is expected to peak in May or June if the social distancing measures
are effective. Death rate peaks about two weeks after the daily
infection count reaches its highest point (typical residence time in
ICU). Fatalities will be much higher if ICU capacity is inadequate..
One thing you really should be worried by is that the US growth curve is
running ahead of Italy at the corresponding position. This is rather
surprising given that we know the sorts of things you should not do.
http://nrg.cs.ucl.ac.uk/mjh/covid19/#wn
That's the integral of cases, but the slopes are all declining.
Doubling time in the UK, Italy and Spain is presently 3 days. In the USA
it is 2 days and in Japan it is presently 8 days (though unclear how
much longer they can hold that line without taking further measures).
This site
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
has good graphs, but is's getting too popular/slow lately.
It doesn't matter how many catch it, we know that 4% of people who get it die. So the absolute maximum death toll is 4% of the world. That's far preferable to the stupid over the top government restrictions which will see the world economy collapse and countless business go bankrupt. Why not just lock in the vulnerable (elderly etc) people and let everyone else just have a week's sick days off work if they happen to catch it? Because that's all most people get, 7 days of lying in bed.
Yes, sir:
4% to 6% die, but 20% to 30% get diminished lung capacities due to tissue damages. I think we should avoid it and control the damages.
It's just a bad flu, stop being such a sissy. If you want to avoid it, nobody is stopping you. But closing half the world down is causing way more problems.
In big shutdowns, like power blackouts and hurricanes and earthquakes,
there is a bump in births nine months later. This thing may result in
a net population gain. Trade babies for old people.
On Thu, 02 Apr 2020 16:22:20 +0100, "Commander Kinsey"
CFKinsey@military.org.jp> wrote:
On Thu, 02 Apr 2020 16:18:04 +0100, <jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com> wrote:
On Thu, 02 Apr 2020 15:51:38 +0100, "Commander Kinsey"
CFKinsey@military.org.jp> wrote:
On Mon, 30 Mar 2020 15:50:10 +0100, <jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com> wrote:
On Mon, 30 Mar 2020 09:43:12 +0100, Martin Brown
'''newspam'''@nezumi.demon.co.uk> wrote:
On 28/03/2020 02:41, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Sat, 28 Mar 2020 01:27:07 +0000, Tom Gardner
spamjunk@blueyonder.co.uk> wrote:
On 27/03/20 22:38, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
About 2.8 million people die in the US every year. 216K of those are
considered to be upper respiratory or flu/pneumonia. C19 has
officially killed 1544 so far.
The key phrase there is "so far".
US dailies are down slightly from yesterday, but the data is so noisy
that it will take a week or a month to really spot a trend. Some
european countries seem to have peaked. Different countries, even
neighbors, have very different patterns. There must be a lot of bad
data going around.
The only European country that might perhaps be close to peaking is
Italy but their health system is now so close to collapse that they are
airlifting some critical patients to German hospitals for ICU.
UK is expected to peak in May or June if the social distancing measures
are effective. Death rate peaks about two weeks after the daily
infection count reaches its highest point (typical residence time in
ICU). Fatalities will be much higher if ICU capacity is inadequate.
One thing you really should be worried by is that the US growth curve is
running ahead of Italy at the corresponding position. This is rather
surprising given that we know the sorts of things you should not do.
http://nrg.cs.ucl.ac.uk/mjh/covid19/#wn
That's the integral of cases, but the slopes are all declining.
Doubling time in the UK, Italy and Spain is presently 3 days. In the USA
it is 2 days and in Japan it is presently 8 days (though unclear how
much longer they can hold that line without taking further measures).
This site
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
has good graphs, but is's getting too popular/slow lately.
It doesn't matter how many catch it, we know that 4% of people who get it die.
Probably not. It might kill 4% of the people who were already sick and
are in hospitals with respiratory problems, and who have tested
positive for this virus. We don't know how many have been infected.
Maybe 2x, maybe 200x the official count.
It kills almost everybody in hospitals, as they're the ones that are most vulnerable to it.
Absolutely untrue, even among old people. Look it up.
I very much doubt we have the count of infections out by much. Why would we?
Because we only test people who are very sick and seem to have it. We
don't know how many have it and ignore it, or how many had it before
tests were available.
What we have a lot of is fear, panic, press, politics, and bad data.
On Thursday, April 2, 2020 at 11:01:48 AM UTC-4, Commander Kinsey wrote:
On Thu, 02 Apr 2020 15:59:31 +0100, <edward.ming.lee@gmail.com> wrote:
On Thursday, April 2, 2020 at 7:51:42 AM UTC-7, Commander Kinsey wrote:
On Mon, 30 Mar 2020 15:50:10 +0100, <jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com> wrote:
On Mon, 30 Mar 2020 09:43:12 +0100, Martin Brown
'''newspam'''@nezumi.demon.co.uk> wrote:
On 28/03/2020 02:41, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Sat, 28 Mar 2020 01:27:07 +0000, Tom Gardner
spamjunk@blueyonder.co.uk> wrote:
On 27/03/20 22:38, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
About 2.8 million people die in the US every year. 216K of those are
considered to be upper respiratory or flu/pneumonia. C19 has
officially killed 1544 so far.
The key phrase there is "so far".
US dailies are down slightly from yesterday, but the data is so noisy
that it will take a week or a month to really spot a trend. Some
european countries seem to have peaked. Different countries, even
neighbors, have very different patterns. There must be a lot of bad
data going around.
The only European country that might perhaps be close to peaking is
Italy but their health system is now so close to collapse that they are
airlifting some critical patients to German hospitals for ICU.
UK is expected to peak in May or June if the social distancing measures
are effective. Death rate peaks about two weeks after the daily
infection count reaches its highest point (typical residence time in
ICU). Fatalities will be much higher if ICU capacity is inadequate.
One thing you really should be worried by is that the US growth curve is
running ahead of Italy at the corresponding position. This is rather
surprising given that we know the sorts of things you should not do.
http://nrg.cs.ucl.ac.uk/mjh/covid19/#wn
That's the integral of cases, but the slopes are all declining.
Doubling time in the UK, Italy and Spain is presently 3 days. In the USA
it is 2 days and in Japan it is presently 8 days (though unclear how
much longer they can hold that line without taking further measures).
This site
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
has good graphs, but is's getting too popular/slow lately.
It doesn't matter how many catch it, we know that 4% of people who get it die. So the absolute maximum death toll is 4% of the world. That's far preferable to the stupid over the top government restrictions which will see the world economy collapse and countless business go bankrupt. Why not just lock in the vulnerable (elderly etc) people and let everyone else just have a week's sick days off work if they happen to catch it? Because that's all most people get, 7 days of lying in bed.
Yes, sir:
4% to 6% die, but 20% to 30% get diminished lung capacities due to tissue damages. I think we should avoid it and control the damages.
It's just a bad flu, stop being such a sissy. If you want to avoid it, nobody is stopping you. But closing half the world down is causing way more problems.
More problems compared to what? What will be the impact of a 1-4% death rate? It's not all older people. There are children dying as well, without pre-existing conditions.
On Thu, 02 Apr 2020 19:18:19 +0100, "Commander Kinsey"
CFKinsey@military.org.jp> wrote:
On Thu, 02 Apr 2020 19:11:55 +0100, John Larkin <jlarkin@highland_atwork_technology.com> wrote:
On Thu, 02 Apr 2020 17:22:33 +0100, "Commander Kinsey"
CFKinsey@military.org.jp> wrote:
On Thu, 02 Apr 2020 16:50:01 +0100, <jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com> wrote:
On Thu, 02 Apr 2020 16:22:20 +0100, "Commander Kinsey"
CFKinsey@military.org.jp> wrote:
On Thu, 02 Apr 2020 16:18:04 +0100, <jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com> wrote:
On Thu, 02 Apr 2020 15:51:38 +0100, "Commander Kinsey"
CFKinsey@military.org.jp> wrote:
On Mon, 30 Mar 2020 15:50:10 +0100, <jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com> wrote:
On Mon, 30 Mar 2020 09:43:12 +0100, Martin Brown
'''newspam'''@nezumi.demon.co.uk> wrote:
On 28/03/2020 02:41, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Sat, 28 Mar 2020 01:27:07 +0000, Tom Gardner
spamjunk@blueyonder.co.uk> wrote:
On 27/03/20 22:38, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
About 2.8 million people die in the US every year. 216K of those are
considered to be upper respiratory or flu/pneumonia. C19 has
officially killed 1544 so far.
The key phrase there is "so far".
US dailies are down slightly from yesterday, but the data is so noisy
that it will take a week or a month to really spot a trend. Some
european countries seem to have peaked. Different countries, even
neighbors, have very different patterns. There must be a lot of bad
data going around.
The only European country that might perhaps be close to peaking is
Italy but their health system is now so close to collapse that they are
airlifting some critical patients to German hospitals for ICU.
UK is expected to peak in May or June if the social distancing measures
are effective. Death rate peaks about two weeks after the daily
infection count reaches its highest point (typical residence time in
ICU). Fatalities will be much higher if ICU capacity is inadequate.
One thing you really should be worried by is that the US growth curve is
running ahead of Italy at the corresponding position. This is rather
surprising given that we know the sorts of things you should not do.
http://nrg.cs.ucl.ac.uk/mjh/covid19/#wn
That's the integral of cases, but the slopes are all declining.
Doubling time in the UK, Italy and Spain is presently 3 days. In the USA
it is 2 days and in Japan it is presently 8 days (though unclear how
much longer they can hold that line without taking further measures).
This site
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
has good graphs, but is's getting too popular/slow lately.
It doesn't matter how many catch it, we know that 4% of people who get it die.
Probably not. It might kill 4% of the people who were already sick and
are in hospitals with respiratory problems, and who have tested
positive for this virus. We don't know how many have been infected.
Maybe 2x, maybe 200x the official count.
It kills almost everybody in hospitals, as they're the ones that are most vulnerable to it.
Absolutely untrue, even among old people. Look it up.
It depends which lying news broadcaster bribed by the government that you believe.
I very much doubt we have the count of infections out by much. Why would we?
Because we only test people who are very sick and seem to have it. We
don't know how many have it and ignore it, or how many had it before
tests were available.
Easily worked out by guesswork, or random checking. Just like you don't have to ask every single person in the country which way they're going to vote to get a fairly accurate idea.
What we have a lot of is fear, panic, press, politics, and bad data.
Agreed. Which is why we should have ignored it entirely and let it run its course just like a cold or flu.
We could do voluntary social distancing, wipe down handrails, do some
basic sanitary stuff that we should always do. And isolate/protect old
and sick people, which we should also always do.
Indeed, as I said earlier, we only need to protect the elderly and anyone with a medical problem that means they couldn't handle corona aswell. Most of us will just have a week in bed when we get it.
The lockdowns are trashing the economy, which hurts people, and are
probably not going to save many lives. We didn't lockdown in any of
the last few pandemics.
Indeed.
I expect some gigantic disruptions to the electronic supply chain. We
had a buying panic over some values of ceramic caps last year. You
ain't seen nothin yet.
I've already found it:
Difficult to buy the food I want.
Impossible to buy a chest freezer.
Expensive to buy brewing sugar of all things.
Very expensive (times 5 cost) to buy a home gym or weights.
None of that matters. The real problem is chocolate.
We are doing a giant parts breakdown run now, and buying for a lot of
likely production, before the big panics. If we over-buy, we'll use
most of it eventually.
So you're adding to the panics.
Sure. We want to be there first.
Did you also buy 10 times as much food at the supermarket? You're the reason nobody can buy food.
No, we didn't over-buy anything; wish we had. There's no garlic now.
People are home, feeding themselves and their kids. People aren't
eating at work or in school. Se we have to buy more than usual. But
the restaurants and schools are closed, so it should average out.
On Thu, 02 Apr 2020 20:22:02 +0100, Rick C <gnuarm.deletethisbit@gmail.com> wrote:
On Thursday, April 2, 2020 at 11:01:48 AM UTC-4, Commander Kinsey wrote:
On Thu, 02 Apr 2020 15:59:31 +0100, <edward.ming.lee@gmail.com> wrote:
On Thursday, April 2, 2020 at 7:51:42 AM UTC-7, Commander Kinsey wrote:
On Mon, 30 Mar 2020 15:50:10 +0100, <jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology..com> wrote:
On Mon, 30 Mar 2020 09:43:12 +0100, Martin Brown
'''newspam'''@nezumi.demon.co.uk> wrote:
On 28/03/2020 02:41, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Sat, 28 Mar 2020 01:27:07 +0000, Tom Gardner
spamjunk@blueyonder.co.uk> wrote:
On 27/03/20 22:38, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
About 2.8 million people die in the US every year. 216K of those are
considered to be upper respiratory or flu/pneumonia. C19 has
officially killed 1544 so far.
The key phrase there is "so far".
US dailies are down slightly from yesterday, but the data is so noisy
that it will take a week or a month to really spot a trend. Some
european countries seem to have peaked. Different countries, even
neighbors, have very different patterns. There must be a lot of bad
data going around.
The only European country that might perhaps be close to peaking is
Italy but their health system is now so close to collapse that they are
airlifting some critical patients to German hospitals for ICU.
UK is expected to peak in May or June if the social distancing measures
are effective. Death rate peaks about two weeks after the daily
infection count reaches its highest point (typical residence time in
ICU). Fatalities will be much higher if ICU capacity is inadequate.
One thing you really should be worried by is that the US growth curve is
running ahead of Italy at the corresponding position. This is rather
surprising given that we know the sorts of things you should not do.
http://nrg.cs.ucl.ac.uk/mjh/covid19/#wn
That's the integral of cases, but the slopes are all declining.
Doubling time in the UK, Italy and Spain is presently 3 days. In the USA
it is 2 days and in Japan it is presently 8 days (though unclear how
much longer they can hold that line without taking further measures).
This site
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
has good graphs, but is's getting too popular/slow lately.
It doesn't matter how many catch it, we know that 4% of people who get it die. So the absolute maximum death toll is 4% of the world. That's far preferable to the stupid over the top government restrictions which will see the world economy collapse and countless business go bankrupt. Why not just lock in the vulnerable (elderly etc) people and let everyone else just have a week's sick days off work if they happen to catch it? Because that's all most people get, 7 days of lying in bed.
Yes, sir:
4% to 6% die, but 20% to 30% get diminished lung capacities due to tissue damages. I think we should avoid it and control the damages.
It's just a bad flu, stop being such a sissy. If you want to avoid it, nobody is stopping you. But closing half the world down is causing way more problems.
More problems compared to what? What will be the impact of a 1-4% death rate? It's not all older people. There are children dying as well, without pre-existing conditions.
You can't tell if they had something undetected. Clearly most younger folk are fine. It's just weeding out the weak, which will lessen the load on hospitals in the future. 96% survive, so clearly those 4% were inferior.
Why do you think it is acceptable for a minority of the population should be allowed to put the rest of the population at risk.
They're not. Anyone who wants to hide can do so. If you stay in your house I can't infect you.
That's why speeding is illegal. No one cares if you die, but you may take out others with you.
It's only slightly illegal, it's just a fine. You get fined more for not paying your TV license.
And explain the seatbelt law....
Stop being a spoiled brat and go back to playing your video games.
Nothing spoiled about it. I'm just telling you we're royally fucking up the world by trying to press the pause button.
On Thursday, April 2, 2020 at 8:50:10 AM UTC-7, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Thu, 02 Apr 2020 16:22:20 +0100, "Commander Kinsey"
CFKinsey@military.org.jp> wrote:
I very much doubt we have the count of infections out by much. Why would we?
Because we only test people who are very sick and seem to have it. We
don't know how many have it and ignore it, or how many had it before
tests were available.
The outbreak maps do NOT show the uniformity that is consistent with
the high-undetected-infected-population hypothesis. No one believes it is safe to
assume that hypothesis, so it's useless. Testing here is showing about 7%
positives, which means the tests aren't only going to very ill (but it also
means we don't have good overall population coverage).
Waiting for a reliable test for immunity? Not a prudent option, rather we ought to
continue with isolation strategies.
On Thursday, April 2, 2020 at 11:21:28 AM UTC-4, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Thu, 02 Apr 2020 16:01:42 +0100, "Commander Kinsey"
CFKinsey@military.org.jp> wrote:
On Thu, 02 Apr 2020 15:59:31 +0100, <edward.ming.lee@gmail.com> wrote:
On Thursday, April 2, 2020 at 7:51:42 AM UTC-7, Commander Kinsey wrote:
On Mon, 30 Mar 2020 15:50:10 +0100, <jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com> wrote:
On Mon, 30 Mar 2020 09:43:12 +0100, Martin Brown
'''newspam'''@nezumi.demon.co.uk> wrote:
On 28/03/2020 02:41, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Sat, 28 Mar 2020 01:27:07 +0000, Tom Gardner
spamjunk@blueyonder.co.uk> wrote:
On 27/03/20 22:38, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
About 2.8 million people die in the US every year. 216K of those are
considered to be upper respiratory or flu/pneumonia. C19 has
officially killed 1544 so far.
The key phrase there is "so far".
US dailies are down slightly from yesterday, but the data is so noisy
that it will take a week or a month to really spot a trend. Some
european countries seem to have peaked. Different countries, even
neighbors, have very different patterns. There must be a lot of bad
data going around.
The only European country that might perhaps be close to peaking is
Italy but their health system is now so close to collapse that they are
airlifting some critical patients to German hospitals for ICU.
UK is expected to peak in May or June if the social distancing measures
are effective. Death rate peaks about two weeks after the daily
infection count reaches its highest point (typical residence time in
ICU). Fatalities will be much higher if ICU capacity is inadequate.
One thing you really should be worried by is that the US growth curve is
running ahead of Italy at the corresponding position. This is rather
surprising given that we know the sorts of things you should not do.
http://nrg.cs.ucl.ac.uk/mjh/covid19/#wn
That's the integral of cases, but the slopes are all declining.
Doubling time in the UK, Italy and Spain is presently 3 days. In the USA
it is 2 days and in Japan it is presently 8 days (though unclear how
much longer they can hold that line without taking further measures).
This site
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
has good graphs, but is's getting too popular/slow lately.
It doesn't matter how many catch it, we know that 4% of people who get it die. So the absolute maximum death toll is 4% of the world. That's far preferable to the stupid over the top government restrictions which will see the world economy collapse and countless business go bankrupt. Why not just lock in the vulnerable (elderly etc) people and let everyone else just have a week's sick days off work if they happen to catch it? Because that's all most people get, 7 days of lying in bed.
Yes, sir:
4% to 6% die, but 20% to 30% get diminished lung capacities due to tissue damages. I think we should avoid it and control the damages.
It's just a bad flu, stop being such a sissy. If you want to avoid it, nobody is stopping you. But closing half the world down is causing way more problems.
In big shutdowns, like power blackouts and hurricanes and earthquakes,
there is a bump in births nine months later. This thing may result in
a net population gain. Trade babies for old people.
For purposes of this virus you are old, so maybe I'll vote for that.
On Thu, 02 Apr 2020 20:26:13 +0100, Rick C <gnuarm.deletethisbit@gmail.com> wrote:
On Thursday, April 2, 2020 at 11:21:28 AM UTC-4, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Thu, 02 Apr 2020 16:01:42 +0100, "Commander Kinsey"
CFKinsey@military.org.jp> wrote:
On Thu, 02 Apr 2020 15:59:31 +0100, <edward.ming.lee@gmail.com> wrote:
On Thursday, April 2, 2020 at 7:51:42 AM UTC-7, Commander Kinsey wrote:
On Mon, 30 Mar 2020 15:50:10 +0100, <jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com> wrote:
On Mon, 30 Mar 2020 09:43:12 +0100, Martin Brown
'''newspam'''@nezumi.demon.co.uk> wrote:
On 28/03/2020 02:41, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Sat, 28 Mar 2020 01:27:07 +0000, Tom Gardner
spamjunk@blueyonder.co.uk> wrote:
On 27/03/20 22:38, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
About 2.8 million people die in the US every year. 216K of those are
considered to be upper respiratory or flu/pneumonia. C19 has
officially killed 1544 so far.
The key phrase there is "so far".
US dailies are down slightly from yesterday, but the data is so noisy
that it will take a week or a month to really spot a trend. Some
european countries seem to have peaked. Different countries, even
neighbors, have very different patterns. There must be a lot of bad
data going around.
The only European country that might perhaps be close to peaking is
Italy but their health system is now so close to collapse that they are
airlifting some critical patients to German hospitals for ICU.
UK is expected to peak in May or June if the social distancing measures
are effective. Death rate peaks about two weeks after the daily
infection count reaches its highest point (typical residence time in
ICU). Fatalities will be much higher if ICU capacity is inadequate.
One thing you really should be worried by is that the US growth curve is
running ahead of Italy at the corresponding position. This is rather
surprising given that we know the sorts of things you should not do.
http://nrg.cs.ucl.ac.uk/mjh/covid19/#wn
That's the integral of cases, but the slopes are all declining.
Doubling time in the UK, Italy and Spain is presently 3 days. In the USA
it is 2 days and in Japan it is presently 8 days (though unclear how
much longer they can hold that line without taking further measures).
This site
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
has good graphs, but is's getting too popular/slow lately.
It doesn't matter how many catch it, we know that 4% of people who get it die. So the absolute maximum death toll is 4% of the world. That's far preferable to the stupid over the top government restrictions which will see the world economy collapse and countless business go bankrupt. Why not just lock in the vulnerable (elderly etc) people and let everyone else just have a week's sick days off work if they happen to catch it? Because that's all most people get, 7 days of lying in bed.
Yes, sir:
4% to 6% die, but 20% to 30% get diminished lung capacities due to tissue damages. I think we should avoid it and control the damages.
It's just a bad flu, stop being such a sissy. If you want to avoid it, nobody is stopping you. But closing half the world down is causing way more problems.
In big shutdowns, like power blackouts and hurricanes and earthquakes,
there is a bump in births nine months later. This thing may result in
a net population gain. Trade babies for old people.
For purposes of this virus you are old, so maybe I'll vote for that.
Nope, they're advising pensioners to hide indoors, as in over 65.
The irony of this guy spouting his rhetoric, meanwhile he hides in his home with the blinds drawn. Or he goes to his empty business. He's been hiding from this "flu" for a lot longer than the stay at home order. So clearly he doesn't want to catch this disease.
Who is this he? If you mean me, I don't even have blinds.
On Thursday, April 2, 2020 at 1:46:14 PM UTC-4, whit3rd wrote:
On Thursday, April 2, 2020 at 8:50:10 AM UTC-7, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Thu, 02 Apr 2020 16:22:20 +0100, "Commander Kinsey"
CFKinsey@military.org.jp> wrote:
I very much doubt we have the count of infections out by much. Why would we?
Because we only test people who are very sick and seem to have it. We
don't know how many have it and ignore it, or how many had it before
tests were available.
The outbreak maps do NOT show the uniformity that is consistent with
the high-undetected-infected-population hypothesis. No one believes it is safe to
assume that hypothesis, so it's useless. Testing here is showing about 7%
positives, which means the tests aren't only going to very ill (but it also
means we don't have good overall population coverage).
Waiting for a reliable test for immunity? Not a prudent option, rather we ought to
continue with isolation strategies.
But it is not a this or that but not both choice. I am waiting for a reliable test for immunity, but am staying isolated in the mean time.
On Thursday, April 2, 2020 at 11:50:10 AM UTC-4, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Thu, 02 Apr 2020 16:22:20 +0100, "Commander Kinsey"
CFKinsey@military.org.jp> wrote:
On Thu, 02 Apr 2020 16:18:04 +0100, <jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com> wrote:
On Thu, 02 Apr 2020 15:51:38 +0100, "Commander Kinsey"
CFKinsey@military.org.jp> wrote:
On Mon, 30 Mar 2020 15:50:10 +0100, <jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com> wrote:
On Mon, 30 Mar 2020 09:43:12 +0100, Martin Brown
'''newspam'''@nezumi.demon.co.uk> wrote:
On 28/03/2020 02:41, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Sat, 28 Mar 2020 01:27:07 +0000, Tom Gardner
spamjunk@blueyonder.co.uk> wrote:
On 27/03/20 22:38, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
About 2.8 million people die in the US every year. 216K of those are
considered to be upper respiratory or flu/pneumonia. C19 has
officially killed 1544 so far.
The key phrase there is "so far".
US dailies are down slightly from yesterday, but the data is so noisy
that it will take a week or a month to really spot a trend. Some
european countries seem to have peaked. Different countries, even
neighbors, have very different patterns. There must be a lot of bad
data going around.
The only European country that might perhaps be close to peaking is
Italy but their health system is now so close to collapse that they are
airlifting some critical patients to German hospitals for ICU.
UK is expected to peak in May or June if the social distancing measures
are effective. Death rate peaks about two weeks after the daily
infection count reaches its highest point (typical residence time in
ICU). Fatalities will be much higher if ICU capacity is inadequate.
One thing you really should be worried by is that the US growth curve is
running ahead of Italy at the corresponding position. This is rather
surprising given that we know the sorts of things you should not do.
http://nrg.cs.ucl.ac.uk/mjh/covid19/#wn
That's the integral of cases, but the slopes are all declining.
Doubling time in the UK, Italy and Spain is presently 3 days. In the USA
it is 2 days and in Japan it is presently 8 days (though unclear how
much longer they can hold that line without taking further measures).
This site
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
has good graphs, but is's getting too popular/slow lately.
It doesn't matter how many catch it, we know that 4% of people who get it die.
Probably not. It might kill 4% of the people who were already sick and
are in hospitals with respiratory problems, and who have tested
positive for this virus. We don't know how many have been infected.
Maybe 2x, maybe 200x the official count.
It kills almost everybody in hospitals, as they're the ones that are most vulnerable to it.
Absolutely untrue, even among old people. Look it up.
I very much doubt we have the count of infections out by much. Why would we?
Because we only test people who are very sick and seem to have it. We
don't know how many have it and ignore it, or how many had it before
tests were available.
What we have a lot of is fear, panic, press, politics, and bad data.
You forgot two things. We also have disease and death. Larkin doesn't care about other people's pain and suffering. There are lots of ways to die, but this is one of the worst, not being able to catch your breath. No, it's not how I want to go out.
On Thu, 02 Apr 2020 22:12:27 +0100, dcaster@krl.org <dcaster@krl.org> wrote:
On Thursday, April 2, 2020 at 1:46:14 PM UTC-4, whit3rd wrote:
On Thursday, April 2, 2020 at 8:50:10 AM UTC-7, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Thu, 02 Apr 2020 16:22:20 +0100, "Commander Kinsey"
CFKinsey@military.org.jp> wrote:
I very much doubt we have the count of infections out by much. Why would we?
Because we only test people who are very sick and seem to have it. We
don't know how many have it and ignore it, or how many had it before
tests were available.
The outbreak maps do NOT show the uniformity that is consistent with
the high-undetected-infected-population hypothesis. No one believes it is safe to
assume that hypothesis, so it's useless. Testing here is showing about 7%
positives, which means the tests aren't only going to very ill (but it also
means we don't have good overall population coverage).
Waiting for a reliable test for immunity? Not a prudent option, rather we ought to
continue with isolation strategies.
But it is not a this or that but not both choice. I am waiting for a reliable test for immunity, but am staying isolated in the mean time.
You'll go insane if you stay indoors for months.
On Thu, 02 Apr 2020 20:28:32 +0100, Rick C <gnuarm.deletethisbit@gmail.com> wrote:
On Thursday, April 2, 2020 at 11:50:10 AM UTC-4, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Thu, 02 Apr 2020 16:22:20 +0100, "Commander Kinsey"
CFKinsey@military.org.jp> wrote:
On Thu, 02 Apr 2020 16:18:04 +0100, <jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com> wrote:
On Thu, 02 Apr 2020 15:51:38 +0100, "Commander Kinsey"
CFKinsey@military.org.jp> wrote:
On Mon, 30 Mar 2020 15:50:10 +0100, <jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com> wrote:
On Mon, 30 Mar 2020 09:43:12 +0100, Martin Brown
'''newspam'''@nezumi.demon.co.uk> wrote:
On 28/03/2020 02:41, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Sat, 28 Mar 2020 01:27:07 +0000, Tom Gardner
spamjunk@blueyonder.co.uk> wrote:
On 27/03/20 22:38, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
About 2.8 million people die in the US every year. 216K of those are
considered to be upper respiratory or flu/pneumonia. C19 has
officially killed 1544 so far.
The key phrase there is "so far".
US dailies are down slightly from yesterday, but the data is so noisy
that it will take a week or a month to really spot a trend. Some
european countries seem to have peaked. Different countries, even
neighbors, have very different patterns. There must be a lot of bad
data going around.
The only European country that might perhaps be close to peaking is
Italy but their health system is now so close to collapse that they are
airlifting some critical patients to German hospitals for ICU.
UK is expected to peak in May or June if the social distancing measures
are effective. Death rate peaks about two weeks after the daily
infection count reaches its highest point (typical residence time in
ICU). Fatalities will be much higher if ICU capacity is inadequate.
One thing you really should be worried by is that the US growth curve is
running ahead of Italy at the corresponding position. This is rather
surprising given that we know the sorts of things you should not do.
http://nrg.cs.ucl.ac.uk/mjh/covid19/#wn
That's the integral of cases, but the slopes are all declining.
Doubling time in the UK, Italy and Spain is presently 3 days. In the USA
it is 2 days and in Japan it is presently 8 days (though unclear how
much longer they can hold that line without taking further measures).
This site
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
has good graphs, but is's getting too popular/slow lately.
It doesn't matter how many catch it, we know that 4% of people who get it die.
Probably not. It might kill 4% of the people who were already sick and
are in hospitals with respiratory problems, and who have tested
positive for this virus. We don't know how many have been infected.
Maybe 2x, maybe 200x the official count.
It kills almost everybody in hospitals, as they're the ones that are most vulnerable to it.
Absolutely untrue, even among old people. Look it up.
I very much doubt we have the count of infections out by much. Why would we?
Because we only test people who are very sick and seem to have it. We
don't know how many have it and ignore it, or how many had it before
tests were available.
What we have a lot of is fear, panic, press, politics, and bad data.
You forgot two things. We also have disease and death. Larkin doesn't care about other people's pain and suffering. There are lots of ways to die, but this is one of the worst, not being able to catch your breath. No, it's not how I want to go out.
Then stay at home, by your own choice. But don't expect everyone else to be a pussy for a 4% chance.
On Thursday, April 2, 2020 at 6:31:44 PM UTC-4, Commander Kinsey wrote:
On Thu, 02 Apr 2020 22:12:27 +0100, dcaster@krl.org <dcaster@krl.org> wrote:
On Thursday, April 2, 2020 at 1:46:14 PM UTC-4, whit3rd wrote:
On Thursday, April 2, 2020 at 8:50:10 AM UTC-7, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Thu, 02 Apr 2020 16:22:20 +0100, "Commander Kinsey"
CFKinsey@military.org.jp> wrote:
I very much doubt we have the count of infections out by much. Why would we?
Because we only test people who are very sick and seem to have it. We
don't know how many have it and ignore it, or how many had it before
tests were available.
The outbreak maps do NOT show the uniformity that is consistent with
the high-undetected-infected-population hypothesis. No one believes it is safe to
assume that hypothesis, so it's useless. Testing here is showing about 7%
positives, which means the tests aren't only going to very ill (but it also
means we don't have good overall population coverage).
Waiting for a reliable test for immunity? Not a prudent option, rather we ought to
continue with isolation strategies.
But it is not a this or that but not both choice. I am waiting for a reliable test for immunity, but am staying isolated in the mean time.
You'll go insane if you stay indoors for months.
Nobody has to stay indoors. You just need to avoid people you don't live with.
On Thu, 02 Apr 2020 23:52:47 +0100, Ricky C <gnuarm.deletethisbit@gmail.com> wrote:
On Thursday, April 2, 2020 at 6:31:44 PM UTC-4, Commander Kinsey wrote:
On Thu, 02 Apr 2020 22:12:27 +0100, dcaster@krl.org <dcaster@krl.org> wrote:
On Thursday, April 2, 2020 at 1:46:14 PM UTC-4, whit3rd wrote:
On Thursday, April 2, 2020 at 8:50:10 AM UTC-7, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Thu, 02 Apr 2020 16:22:20 +0100, "Commander Kinsey"
CFKinsey@military.org.jp> wrote:
I very much doubt we have the count of infections out by much. Why would we?
Because we only test people who are very sick and seem to have it.. We
don't know how many have it and ignore it, or how many had it before
tests were available.
The outbreak maps do NOT show the uniformity that is consistent with
the high-undetected-infected-population hypothesis. No one believes it is safe to
assume that hypothesis, so it's useless. Testing here is showing about 7%
positives, which means the tests aren't only going to very ill (but it also
means we don't have good overall population coverage).
Waiting for a reliable test for immunity? Not a prudent option, rather we ought to
continue with isolation strategies.
But it is not a this or that but not both choice. I am waiting for a reliable test for immunity, but am staying isolated in the mean time.
You'll go insane if you stay indoors for months.
Nobody has to stay indoors. You just need to avoid people you don't live with.
Which is why I go hillwalking illegally instead off walking in town. It's nicer too.
The way people ignore the idea there is an infectious disease that can kill results in more infections and more overloading of the hospitals.
So what? There's a 96% chance you'll be fine. Greater than that if you ain't old.
I don't care about what people like you think. The facts are out there and you are free to believe what you want. Even Larkin is not going out any more than he has to. He brags that he went to work with three other people in a big building. Woo Hoo, big risk taker. Essentially he is taking this very seriously but talking like it means nothing. Maybe he should volunteer to push wheelchairs at the hospital? How about you?
You know what I think's crazy, supermarket shopping. They limit you to three of each item, so everyone shops several times, more people, more queues, more infection. They ain't got a clue.
The lockdowns are trashing the economy, which hurts people, and are
probably not going to save many lives.
We didn't lockdown in any of
the last few pandemics.
On Thursday, April 2, 2020 at 11:12:05 AM UTC-7, John Larkin wrote:
The lockdowns are trashing the economy, which hurts people, and are
probably not going to save many lives.
This displays no grasp at all of the concept of 'probability'. Show us a credible
model that gives a quantitative result other than 'many' lives in the balance.
We didn't lockdown in any of
the last few pandemics.
Which would those be? Flu was highly transmissible, and there WERE lockdowns,
but tuberculosis has a treatment and acts slowly, polio doesn't transmit quickly...
those were different. Mad cow? Syphilis? Rabies? Anthrax?
On Thu, 02 Apr 2020 15:59:31 +0100, <edward.ming.lee@gmail.com> wrote:
On Thursday, April 2, 2020 at 7:51:42 AM UTC-7, Commander Kinsey wrote:
On Mon, 30 Mar 2020 15:50:10 +0100, <jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com> wrote:
On Mon, 30 Mar 2020 09:43:12 +0100, Martin Brown
'''newspam'''@nezumi.demon.co.uk> wrote:
On 28/03/2020 02:41, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Sat, 28 Mar 2020 01:27:07 +0000, Tom Gardner
spamjunk@blueyonder.co.uk> wrote:
On 27/03/20 22:38, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
About 2.8 million people die in the US every year. 216K of those are
considered to be upper respiratory or flu/pneumonia. C19 has
officially killed 1544 so far.
The key phrase there is "so far".
US dailies are down slightly from yesterday, but the data is so noisy
that it will take a week or a month to really spot a trend. Some
european countries seem to have peaked. Different countries, even
neighbors, have very different patterns. There must be a lot of bad
data going around.
The only European country that might perhaps be close to peaking is
Italy but their health system is now so close to collapse that they are
airlifting some critical patients to German hospitals for ICU.
UK is expected to peak in May or June if the social distancing measures
are effective. Death rate peaks about two weeks after the daily
infection count reaches its highest point (typical residence time in
ICU). Fatalities will be much higher if ICU capacity is inadequate.
One thing you really should be worried by is that the US growth curve is
running ahead of Italy at the corresponding position. This is rather
surprising given that we know the sorts of things you should not do..
http://nrg.cs.ucl.ac.uk/mjh/covid19/#wn
That's the integral of cases, but the slopes are all declining.
Doubling time in the UK, Italy and Spain is presently 3 days. In the USA
it is 2 days and in Japan it is presently 8 days (though unclear how
much longer they can hold that line without taking further measures).
This site
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
has good graphs, but is's getting too popular/slow lately.
It doesn't matter how many catch it, we know that 4% of people who get it die. So the absolute maximum death toll is 4% of the world. That's far preferable to the stupid over the top government restrictions which will see the world economy collapse and countless business go bankrupt. Why not just lock in the vulnerable (elderly etc) people and let everyone else just have a week's sick days off work if they happen to catch it? Because that's all most people get, 7 days of lying in bed.
Yes, sir:
4% to 6% die, but 20% to 30% get diminished lung capacities due to tissue damages. I think we should avoid it and control the damages.
What we should be doing is sending China the bill. That's TWICE they've sent out a virus due to unclean wet meat markets. TWICE. They clearly didn't learn from SARS.