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On Wednesday, April 1, 2020 at 2:18:20 PM UTC-4, John Larkin wrote:
On Wed, 1 Apr 2020 11:07:16 -0700 (PDT), dagmargoodboat@yahoo.com
wrote:
On Sunday, March 29, 2020 at 11:09:15 PM UTC-4, Clifford Heath wrote:
On 30/3/20 1:18 pm, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Sun, 29 Mar 2020 17:35:35 -0700 (PDT), dagmargoodboat@yahoo.com
wrote:
On Saturday, March 28, 2020 at 12:57:01 PM UTC-4, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Sat, 28 Mar 2020 08:45:11 +0000, Jeff Layman
jmlayman@invalid.invalid> wrote:
On 28/03/20 03:00, Bill Sloman wrote:
But the Covid-19 death numbers are growing exponentially. If James Arthur's 1.24 increase per day persists for 23 days, there will be have been as many Civd-19 deaths in those 23 days as 216k respiratory disease deaths that the US has in a year.
I can understand the general public having little comprehension of what
"exponential" means, but I am surprised that it seems to have been
ignored or misunderstood by those who should know better. Stating
figures about deaths from other causes misses the point entirely; they
are known causes, understood, and changes in the death rate - whether
up, down, or constant, is explicable, linear, and usually minor..
One other point is misunderstood. We talk about treatment by intensive
care and use of ventilators. The problem is those are finite sources,
maybe increasing slightly as time goes on, but the exponential growth of
coronavirus infections will drown those increases. If there are 10000
ventilators today, and 20000 next week, it won't help much if there are
10000 cases of Covid-19 today and 100000 next week.
I understand exponential growth. There would be 1 million the
following week, then 10 million the next week, and 100 billion cases a
month after that. The US will hit 100 billion cases around the end of
April.
100 billion's manageable. In newsmath, those could still be funded
(a million dollars each) from Mike Bloomberg's campaign spending.
The problem happens a month later, when there'll be 8,128.5494322736
times as many cases. California's brilliant governor will need to
find another 19,543 hospital beds.
Cheers,
James
I'm mostly through re-reading Barry's influenza book. The 1918
influenza was immensely worse than this thing. Over 4000 people died
per day in Philadelphia. Europeans seemed to have some immunity, and
some native villages and islands were wiped out entirely; no
survivors.
In any locality, the time from first case to burnout was about 6
weeks, more like 4 weeks at crowded army bases. It grew as a
bell-shaped curve with the tail chopped off, exponential start and a
very abrupt end.
I can, maybe optimistically, imagine that sort of curve in the data
from a lot of countries now. Initial fast growth but now flat or
declining.
There's an exceptionally good presentation of the reasons for the
Australian approach, by someone who "gets" both the biology and the
maths, here:
https://iser.med.unsw.edu.au/blog/busting-myths-about-covid-19-herd-immunity-children-and-lives-vs-jobs
Unfortunately the USA has probably squandered the opportunity to take
this approach, so will have to be shunned by the rest of the world for
years while a million or more die in repeated cyclic outbreaks, until an
effective vaccine controls the outbreak. It's a catastrophic failure of
governance.
CH
Crunching the numbers from worldometers.info today,
cases | deaths | infection rate (ppm)
--------+--------+---------------------
Europe 470,388 | 32,636 | 1,385
EU 399,188 | 29,132 | 1,176
---------------+--------+---------------------
USA 200,289 | 4,394 | 605
Stop annoying people with data.
Sooorrrrrryyyyy.
Clifford's right, it's here, and it's growing. But we didn't
start it.
Perhaps we should've cut off travel from Europe earlier.
On Wednesday, April 1, 2020 at 2:07:28 PM UTC-4, dagmarg...@yahoo.com wrote:
On Sunday, March 29, 2020 at 11:09:15 PM UTC-4, Clifford Heath wrote:
On 30/3/20 1:18 pm, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Sun, 29 Mar 2020 17:35:35 -0700 (PDT), dagmargoodboat@yahoo.com
wrote:
On Saturday, March 28, 2020 at 12:57:01 PM UTC-4, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Sat, 28 Mar 2020 08:45:11 +0000, Jeff Layman
jmlayman@invalid.invalid> wrote:
On 28/03/20 03:00, Bill Sloman wrote:
But the Covid-19 death numbers are growing exponentially. If James Arthur's 1.24 increase per day persists for 23 days, there will be have been as many Civd-19 deaths in those 23 days as 216k respiratory disease deaths that the US has in a year.
I can understand the general public having little comprehension of what
"exponential" means, but I am surprised that it seems to have been
ignored or misunderstood by those who should know better. Stating
figures about deaths from other causes misses the point entirely; they
are known causes, understood, and changes in the death rate - whether
up, down, or constant, is explicable, linear, and usually minor.
One other point is misunderstood. We talk about treatment by intensive
care and use of ventilators. The problem is those are finite sources,
maybe increasing slightly as time goes on, but the exponential growth of
coronavirus infections will drown those increases. If there are 10000
ventilators today, and 20000 next week, it won't help much if there are
10000 cases of Covid-19 today and 100000 next week.
I understand exponential growth. There would be 1 million the
following week, then 10 million the next week, and 100 billion cases a
month after that. The US will hit 100 billion cases around the end of
April.
100 billion's manageable. In newsmath, those could still be funded
(a million dollars each) from Mike Bloomberg's campaign spending.
The problem happens a month later, when there'll be 8,128.5494322736
times as many cases. California's brilliant governor will need to
find another 19,543 hospital beds.
Cheers,
James
I'm mostly through re-reading Barry's influenza book. The 1918
influenza was immensely worse than this thing. Over 4000 people died
per day in Philadelphia. Europeans seemed to have some immunity, and
some native villages and islands were wiped out entirely; no
survivors.
In any locality, the time from first case to burnout was about 6
weeks, more like 4 weeks at crowded army bases. It grew as a
bell-shaped curve with the tail chopped off, exponential start and a
very abrupt end.
I can, maybe optimistically, imagine that sort of curve in the data
from a lot of countries now. Initial fast growth but now flat or
declining.
There's an exceptionally good presentation of the reasons for the
Australian approach, by someone who "gets" both the biology and the
maths, here:
https://iser.med.unsw.edu.au/blog/busting-myths-about-covid-19-herd-immunity-children-and-lives-vs-jobs
Unfortunately the USA has probably squandered the opportunity to take
this approach, so will have to be shunned by the rest of the world for
years while a million or more die in repeated cyclic outbreaks, until an
effective vaccine controls the outbreak. It's a catastrophic failure of
governance.
CH
Crunching the numbers from worldometers.info today,
cases deaths infection rate (ppm)
Europe 470,388 32,636 1,385
EU 399,188 29,132 1,176
USA 200,289 4,394 605
What is the trend? We can get the current and past numbers anwaywhere. Because of the reporting delays and delays in being confirmed, these numbers are up to a week out of date. The latest daily number for the US was back up again after a few days of what looked like a leveling off in the new infection rate.
The site with forecasts seems to show a wide range of peaks, this week in New York and the end of the month in Virginia. Many locations have not put in place stay at home orders. So we may see waves of infection rippling out from the infection centers. That is something you see in Petri dishes. The site of infection grows and the center maxes out and starts to die. The infection radiates out as a growing ring. Eventually a different organism emerges again where the original was dominant and radiates out in the same way. Not that I'm suggesting a different organism will do that here, but we could get reccuring waves of this disease as stay at home orders are removed too early.
We'll see over the coming months.
On Mon, 30 Mar 2020 09:43:12 +0100, Martin Brown
'''newspam'''@nezumi.demon.co.uk> wrote:
On 28/03/2020 02:41, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Sat, 28 Mar 2020 01:27:07 +0000, Tom Gardner
spamjunk@blueyonder.co.uk> wrote:
On 27/03/20 22:38, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
About 2.8 million people die in the US every year. 216K of those are
considered to be upper respiratory or flu/pneumonia. C19 has
officially killed 1544 so far.
The key phrase there is "so far".
US dailies are down slightly from yesterday, but the data is so noisy
that it will take a week or a month to really spot a trend. Some
european countries seem to have peaked. Different countries, even
neighbors, have very different patterns. There must be a lot of bad
data going around.
The only European country that might perhaps be close to peaking is
Italy but their health system is now so close to collapse that they are
airlifting some critical patients to German hospitals for ICU.
UK is expected to peak in May or June if the social distancing measures
are effective. Death rate peaks about two weeks after the daily
infection count reaches its highest point (typical residence time in
ICU). Fatalities will be much higher if ICU capacity is inadequate.
One thing you really should be worried by is that the US growth curve is
running ahead of Italy at the corresponding position. This is rather
surprising given that we know the sorts of things you should not do.
http://nrg.cs.ucl.ac.uk/mjh/covid19/#wn
That's the integral of cases, but the slopes are all declining.
Doubling time in the UK, Italy and Spain is presently 3 days. In the USA
it is 2 days and in Japan it is presently 8 days (though unclear how
much longer they can hold that line without taking further measures).
This site
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
has good graphs, but is's getting too popular/slow lately.
On Mon, 30 Mar 2020 15:50:10 +0100, <jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com> wrote:
On Mon, 30 Mar 2020 09:43:12 +0100, Martin Brown
'''newspam'''@nezumi.demon.co.uk> wrote:
On 28/03/2020 02:41, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Sat, 28 Mar 2020 01:27:07 +0000, Tom Gardner
spamjunk@blueyonder.co.uk> wrote:
On 27/03/20 22:38, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
About 2.8 million people die in the US every year. 216K of those are
considered to be upper respiratory or flu/pneumonia. C19 has
officially killed 1544 so far.
The key phrase there is "so far".
US dailies are down slightly from yesterday, but the data is so noisy
that it will take a week or a month to really spot a trend. Some
european countries seem to have peaked. Different countries, even
neighbors, have very different patterns. There must be a lot of bad
data going around.
The only European country that might perhaps be close to peaking is
Italy but their health system is now so close to collapse that they are
airlifting some critical patients to German hospitals for ICU.
UK is expected to peak in May or June if the social distancing measures
are effective. Death rate peaks about two weeks after the daily
infection count reaches its highest point (typical residence time in
ICU). Fatalities will be much higher if ICU capacity is inadequate.
One thing you really should be worried by is that the US growth curve is
running ahead of Italy at the corresponding position. This is rather
surprising given that we know the sorts of things you should not do.
http://nrg.cs.ucl.ac.uk/mjh/covid19/#wn
That's the integral of cases, but the slopes are all declining.
Doubling time in the UK, Italy and Spain is presently 3 days. In the USA
it is 2 days and in Japan it is presently 8 days (though unclear how
much longer they can hold that line without taking further measures).
This site
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
has good graphs, but is's getting too popular/slow lately.
It doesn't matter how many catch it, we know that 4% of people who get it die. So the absolute maximum death toll is 4% of the world. That's far preferable to the stupid over the top government restrictions which will see the world economy collapse and countless business go bankrupt. Why not just lock in the vulnerable (elderly etc) people and let everyone else just have a week's sick days off work if they happen to catch it? Because that's all most people get, 7 days of lying in bed.
On Thursday, April 2, 2020 at 7:51:42 AM UTC-7, Commander Kinsey wrote:
On Mon, 30 Mar 2020 15:50:10 +0100, <jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com> wrote:
On Mon, 30 Mar 2020 09:43:12 +0100, Martin Brown
'''newspam'''@nezumi.demon.co.uk> wrote:
On 28/03/2020 02:41, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Sat, 28 Mar 2020 01:27:07 +0000, Tom Gardner
spamjunk@blueyonder.co.uk> wrote:
On 27/03/20 22:38, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
About 2.8 million people die in the US every year. 216K of those are
considered to be upper respiratory or flu/pneumonia. C19 has
officially killed 1544 so far.
The key phrase there is "so far".
US dailies are down slightly from yesterday, but the data is so noisy
that it will take a week or a month to really spot a trend. Some
european countries seem to have peaked. Different countries, even
neighbors, have very different patterns. There must be a lot of bad
data going around.
The only European country that might perhaps be close to peaking is
Italy but their health system is now so close to collapse that they are
airlifting some critical patients to German hospitals for ICU.
UK is expected to peak in May or June if the social distancing measures
are effective. Death rate peaks about two weeks after the daily
infection count reaches its highest point (typical residence time in
ICU). Fatalities will be much higher if ICU capacity is inadequate.
One thing you really should be worried by is that the US growth curve is
running ahead of Italy at the corresponding position. This is rather
surprising given that we know the sorts of things you should not do.
http://nrg.cs.ucl.ac.uk/mjh/covid19/#wn
That's the integral of cases, but the slopes are all declining.
Doubling time in the UK, Italy and Spain is presently 3 days. In the USA
it is 2 days and in Japan it is presently 8 days (though unclear how
much longer they can hold that line without taking further measures).
This site
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
has good graphs, but is's getting too popular/slow lately.
It doesn't matter how many catch it, we know that 4% of people who get it die. So the absolute maximum death toll is 4% of the world. That's far preferable to the stupid over the top government restrictions which will see the world economy collapse and countless business go bankrupt. Why not just lock in the vulnerable (elderly etc) people and let everyone else just have a week's sick days off work if they happen to catch it? Because that's all most people get, 7 days of lying in bed.
Yes, sir:
4% to 6% die, but 20% to 30% get diminished lung capacities due to tissue damages. I think we should avoid it and control the damages.
On Thursday, April 2, 2020 at 7:51:42 AM UTC-7, Commander Kinsey wrote:
On Mon, 30 Mar 2020 15:50:10 +0100, <jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com> wrote:
On Mon, 30 Mar 2020 09:43:12 +0100, Martin Brown
'''newspam'''@nezumi.demon.co.uk> wrote:
On 28/03/2020 02:41, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Sat, 28 Mar 2020 01:27:07 +0000, Tom Gardner
spamjunk@blueyonder.co.uk> wrote:
On 27/03/20 22:38, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
About 2.8 million people die in the US every year. 216K of those are
considered to be upper respiratory or flu/pneumonia. C19 has
officially killed 1544 so far.
The key phrase there is "so far".
US dailies are down slightly from yesterday, but the data is so noisy
that it will take a week or a month to really spot a trend. Some
european countries seem to have peaked. Different countries, even
neighbors, have very different patterns. There must be a lot of bad
data going around.
The only European country that might perhaps be close to peaking is
Italy but their health system is now so close to collapse that they are
airlifting some critical patients to German hospitals for ICU.
UK is expected to peak in May or June if the social distancing measures
are effective. Death rate peaks about two weeks after the daily
infection count reaches its highest point (typical residence time in
ICU). Fatalities will be much higher if ICU capacity is inadequate.
One thing you really should be worried by is that the US growth curve is
running ahead of Italy at the corresponding position. This is rather
surprising given that we know the sorts of things you should not do.
http://nrg.cs.ucl.ac.uk/mjh/covid19/#wn
That's the integral of cases, but the slopes are all declining.
Doubling time in the UK, Italy and Spain is presently 3 days. In the USA
it is 2 days and in Japan it is presently 8 days (though unclear how
much longer they can hold that line without taking further measures).
This site
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
has good graphs, but is's getting too popular/slow lately.
It doesn't matter how many catch it, we know that 4% of people who get it die. So the absolute maximum death toll is 4% of the world. That's far preferable to the stupid over the top government restrictions which will see the world economy collapse and countless business go bankrupt. Why not just lock in the vulnerable (elderly etc) people and let everyone else just have a week's sick days off work if they happen to catch it? Because that's all most people get, 7 days of lying in bed.
Yes, sir:
4% to 6% die, but 20% to 30% get diminished lung capacities due to tissue damages. I think we should avoid it and control the damages.
On Mon, 30 Mar 2020 15:50:10 +0100, <jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com> wrote:
On Mon, 30 Mar 2020 09:43:12 +0100, Martin Brown
'''newspam'''@nezumi.demon.co.uk> wrote:
On 28/03/2020 02:41, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Sat, 28 Mar 2020 01:27:07 +0000, Tom Gardner
spamjunk@blueyonder.co.uk> wrote:
On 27/03/20 22:38, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
About 2.8 million people die in the US every year. 216K of those are
considered to be upper respiratory or flu/pneumonia. C19 has
officially killed 1544 so far.
The key phrase there is "so far".
US dailies are down slightly from yesterday, but the data is so noisy
that it will take a week or a month to really spot a trend. Some
european countries seem to have peaked. Different countries, even
neighbors, have very different patterns. There must be a lot of bad
data going around.
The only European country that might perhaps be close to peaking is
Italy but their health system is now so close to collapse that they are
airlifting some critical patients to German hospitals for ICU.
UK is expected to peak in May or June if the social distancing measures
are effective. Death rate peaks about two weeks after the daily
infection count reaches its highest point (typical residence time in
ICU). Fatalities will be much higher if ICU capacity is inadequate.
One thing you really should be worried by is that the US growth curve is
running ahead of Italy at the corresponding position. This is rather
surprising given that we know the sorts of things you should not do.
http://nrg.cs.ucl.ac.uk/mjh/covid19/#wn
That's the integral of cases, but the slopes are all declining.
Doubling time in the UK, Italy and Spain is presently 3 days. In the USA
it is 2 days and in Japan it is presently 8 days (though unclear how
much longer they can hold that line without taking further measures).
This site
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
has good graphs, but is's getting too popular/slow lately.
It doesn't matter how many catch it, we know that 4% of people who get it die.
On Thu, 02 Apr 2020 15:59:31 +0100, <edward.ming.lee@gmail.com> wrote:
On Thursday, April 2, 2020 at 7:51:42 AM UTC-7, Commander Kinsey wrote:
On Mon, 30 Mar 2020 15:50:10 +0100, <jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com> wrote:
On Mon, 30 Mar 2020 09:43:12 +0100, Martin Brown
'''newspam'''@nezumi.demon.co.uk> wrote:
On 28/03/2020 02:41, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Sat, 28 Mar 2020 01:27:07 +0000, Tom Gardner
spamjunk@blueyonder.co.uk> wrote:
On 27/03/20 22:38, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
About 2.8 million people die in the US every year. 216K of those are
considered to be upper respiratory or flu/pneumonia. C19 has
officially killed 1544 so far.
The key phrase there is "so far".
US dailies are down slightly from yesterday, but the data is so noisy
that it will take a week or a month to really spot a trend. Some
european countries seem to have peaked. Different countries, even
neighbors, have very different patterns. There must be a lot of bad
data going around.
The only European country that might perhaps be close to peaking is
Italy but their health system is now so close to collapse that they are
airlifting some critical patients to German hospitals for ICU.
UK is expected to peak in May or June if the social distancing measures
are effective. Death rate peaks about two weeks after the daily
infection count reaches its highest point (typical residence time in
ICU). Fatalities will be much higher if ICU capacity is inadequate.
One thing you really should be worried by is that the US growth curve is
running ahead of Italy at the corresponding position. This is rather
surprising given that we know the sorts of things you should not do.
http://nrg.cs.ucl.ac.uk/mjh/covid19/#wn
That's the integral of cases, but the slopes are all declining.
Doubling time in the UK, Italy and Spain is presently 3 days. In the USA
it is 2 days and in Japan it is presently 8 days (though unclear how
much longer they can hold that line without taking further measures).
This site
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
has good graphs, but is's getting too popular/slow lately.
It doesn't matter how many catch it, we know that 4% of people who get it die. So the absolute maximum death toll is 4% of the world. That's far preferable to the stupid over the top government restrictions which will see the world economy collapse and countless business go bankrupt. Why not just lock in the vulnerable (elderly etc) people and let everyone else just have a week's sick days off work if they happen to catch it? Because that's all most people get, 7 days of lying in bed.
Yes, sir:
4% to 6% die, but 20% to 30% get diminished lung capacities due to tissue damages. I think we should avoid it and control the damages.
It's just a bad flu, stop being such a sissy. If you want to avoid it, nobody is stopping you. But closing half the world down is causing way more problems.
On Thu, 02 Apr 2020 15:51:38 +0100, "Commander Kinsey"
CFKinsey@military.org.jp> wrote:
On Mon, 30 Mar 2020 15:50:10 +0100, <jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com> wrote:
On Mon, 30 Mar 2020 09:43:12 +0100, Martin Brown
'''newspam'''@nezumi.demon.co.uk> wrote:
On 28/03/2020 02:41, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Sat, 28 Mar 2020 01:27:07 +0000, Tom Gardner
spamjunk@blueyonder.co.uk> wrote:
On 27/03/20 22:38, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
About 2.8 million people die in the US every year. 216K of those are
considered to be upper respiratory or flu/pneumonia. C19 has
officially killed 1544 so far.
The key phrase there is "so far".
US dailies are down slightly from yesterday, but the data is so noisy
that it will take a week or a month to really spot a trend. Some
european countries seem to have peaked. Different countries, even
neighbors, have very different patterns. There must be a lot of bad
data going around.
The only European country that might perhaps be close to peaking is
Italy but their health system is now so close to collapse that they are
airlifting some critical patients to German hospitals for ICU.
UK is expected to peak in May or June if the social distancing measures
are effective. Death rate peaks about two weeks after the daily
infection count reaches its highest point (typical residence time in
ICU). Fatalities will be much higher if ICU capacity is inadequate.
One thing you really should be worried by is that the US growth curve is
running ahead of Italy at the corresponding position. This is rather
surprising given that we know the sorts of things you should not do.
http://nrg.cs.ucl.ac.uk/mjh/covid19/#wn
That's the integral of cases, but the slopes are all declining.
Doubling time in the UK, Italy and Spain is presently 3 days. In the USA
it is 2 days and in Japan it is presently 8 days (though unclear how
much longer they can hold that line without taking further measures).
This site
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
has good graphs, but is's getting too popular/slow lately.
It doesn't matter how many catch it, we know that 4% of people who get it die.
Probably not. It might kill 4% of the people who were already sick and
are in hospitals with respiratory problems, and who have tested
positive for this virus. We don't know how many have been infected.
Maybe 2x, maybe 200x the official count.
On Thu, 02 Apr 2020 16:22:20 +0100, "Commander Kinsey"
CFKinsey@military.org.jp> wrote:
On Thu, 02 Apr 2020 16:18:04 +0100, <jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com> wrote:
On Thu, 02 Apr 2020 15:51:38 +0100, "Commander Kinsey"
CFKinsey@military.org.jp> wrote:
On Mon, 30 Mar 2020 15:50:10 +0100, <jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com> wrote:
On Mon, 30 Mar 2020 09:43:12 +0100, Martin Brown
'''newspam'''@nezumi.demon.co.uk> wrote:
On 28/03/2020 02:41, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Sat, 28 Mar 2020 01:27:07 +0000, Tom Gardner
spamjunk@blueyonder.co.uk> wrote:
On 27/03/20 22:38, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
About 2.8 million people die in the US every year. 216K of those are
considered to be upper respiratory or flu/pneumonia. C19 has
officially killed 1544 so far.
The key phrase there is "so far".
US dailies are down slightly from yesterday, but the data is so noisy
that it will take a week or a month to really spot a trend. Some
european countries seem to have peaked. Different countries, even
neighbors, have very different patterns. There must be a lot of bad
data going around.
The only European country that might perhaps be close to peaking is
Italy but their health system is now so close to collapse that they are
airlifting some critical patients to German hospitals for ICU.
UK is expected to peak in May or June if the social distancing measures
are effective. Death rate peaks about two weeks after the daily
infection count reaches its highest point (typical residence time in
ICU). Fatalities will be much higher if ICU capacity is inadequate.
One thing you really should be worried by is that the US growth curve is
running ahead of Italy at the corresponding position. This is rather
surprising given that we know the sorts of things you should not do.
http://nrg.cs.ucl.ac.uk/mjh/covid19/#wn
That's the integral of cases, but the slopes are all declining.
Doubling time in the UK, Italy and Spain is presently 3 days. In the USA
it is 2 days and in Japan it is presently 8 days (though unclear how
much longer they can hold that line without taking further measures).
This site
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
has good graphs, but is's getting too popular/slow lately.
It doesn't matter how many catch it, we know that 4% of people who get it die.
Probably not. It might kill 4% of the people who were already sick and
are in hospitals with respiratory problems, and who have tested
positive for this virus. We don't know how many have been infected.
Maybe 2x, maybe 200x the official count.
It kills almost everybody in hospitals, as they're the ones that are most vulnerable to it.
Absolutely untrue, even among old people. Look it up.
I very much doubt we have the count of infections out by much. Why would we?
Because we only test people who are very sick and seem to have it. We
don't know how many have it and ignore it, or how many had it before
tests were available.
On Thu, 02 Apr 2020 16:01:42 +0100, "Commander Kinsey"
CFKinsey@military.org.jp> wrote:
On Thu, 02 Apr 2020 15:59:31 +0100, <edward.ming.lee@gmail.com> wrote:
On Thursday, April 2, 2020 at 7:51:42 AM UTC-7, Commander Kinsey wrote:
On Mon, 30 Mar 2020 15:50:10 +0100, <jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com> wrote:
On Mon, 30 Mar 2020 09:43:12 +0100, Martin Brown
'''newspam'''@nezumi.demon.co.uk> wrote:
On 28/03/2020 02:41, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Sat, 28 Mar 2020 01:27:07 +0000, Tom Gardner
spamjunk@blueyonder.co.uk> wrote:
On 27/03/20 22:38, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
About 2.8 million people die in the US every year. 216K of those are
considered to be upper respiratory or flu/pneumonia. C19 has
officially killed 1544 so far.
The key phrase there is "so far".
US dailies are down slightly from yesterday, but the data is so noisy
that it will take a week or a month to really spot a trend. Some
european countries seem to have peaked. Different countries, even
neighbors, have very different patterns. There must be a lot of bad
data going around.
The only European country that might perhaps be close to peaking is
Italy but their health system is now so close to collapse that they are
airlifting some critical patients to German hospitals for ICU.
UK is expected to peak in May or June if the social distancing measures
are effective. Death rate peaks about two weeks after the daily
infection count reaches its highest point (typical residence time in
ICU). Fatalities will be much higher if ICU capacity is inadequate.
One thing you really should be worried by is that the US growth curve is
running ahead of Italy at the corresponding position. This is rather
surprising given that we know the sorts of things you should not do.
http://nrg.cs.ucl.ac.uk/mjh/covid19/#wn
That's the integral of cases, but the slopes are all declining.
Doubling time in the UK, Italy and Spain is presently 3 days. In the USA
it is 2 days and in Japan it is presently 8 days (though unclear how
much longer they can hold that line without taking further measures).
This site
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
has good graphs, but is's getting too popular/slow lately.
It doesn't matter how many catch it, we know that 4% of people who get it die. So the absolute maximum death toll is 4% of the world. That's far preferable to the stupid over the top government restrictions which will see the world economy collapse and countless business go bankrupt. Why not just lock in the vulnerable (elderly etc) people and let everyone else just have a week's sick days off work if they happen to catch it? Because that's all most people get, 7 days of lying in bed.
Yes, sir:
4% to 6% die, but 20% to 30% get diminished lung capacities due to tissue damages. I think we should avoid it and control the damages.
It's just a bad flu, stop being such a sissy. If you want to avoid it, nobody is stopping you. But closing half the world down is causing way more problems.
In big shutdowns, like power blackouts and hurricanes and earthquakes,
there is a bump in births nine months later. This thing may result in
a net population gain. Trade babies for old people.
On Thu, 02 Apr 2020 16:18:04 +0100, <jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com> wrote:
On Thu, 02 Apr 2020 15:51:38 +0100, "Commander Kinsey"
CFKinsey@military.org.jp> wrote:
On Mon, 30 Mar 2020 15:50:10 +0100, <jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com> wrote:
On Mon, 30 Mar 2020 09:43:12 +0100, Martin Brown
'''newspam'''@nezumi.demon.co.uk> wrote:
On 28/03/2020 02:41, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Sat, 28 Mar 2020 01:27:07 +0000, Tom Gardner
spamjunk@blueyonder.co.uk> wrote:
On 27/03/20 22:38, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
About 2.8 million people die in the US every year. 216K of those are
considered to be upper respiratory or flu/pneumonia. C19 has
officially killed 1544 so far.
The key phrase there is "so far".
US dailies are down slightly from yesterday, but the data is so noisy
that it will take a week or a month to really spot a trend. Some
european countries seem to have peaked. Different countries, even
neighbors, have very different patterns. There must be a lot of bad
data going around.
The only European country that might perhaps be close to peaking is
Italy but their health system is now so close to collapse that they are
airlifting some critical patients to German hospitals for ICU.
UK is expected to peak in May or June if the social distancing measures
are effective. Death rate peaks about two weeks after the daily
infection count reaches its highest point (typical residence time in
ICU). Fatalities will be much higher if ICU capacity is inadequate.
One thing you really should be worried by is that the US growth curve is
running ahead of Italy at the corresponding position. This is rather
surprising given that we know the sorts of things you should not do.
http://nrg.cs.ucl.ac.uk/mjh/covid19/#wn
That's the integral of cases, but the slopes are all declining.
Doubling time in the UK, Italy and Spain is presently 3 days. In the USA
it is 2 days and in Japan it is presently 8 days (though unclear how
much longer they can hold that line without taking further measures).
This site
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
has good graphs, but is's getting too popular/slow lately.
It doesn't matter how many catch it, we know that 4% of people who get it die.
Probably not. It might kill 4% of the people who were already sick and
are in hospitals with respiratory problems, and who have tested
positive for this virus. We don't know how many have been infected.
Maybe 2x, maybe 200x the official count.
It kills almost everybody in hospitals, as they're the ones that are most vulnerable to it.
On Thu, 02 Apr 2020 16:22:20 +0100, "Commander Kinsey"
CFKinsey@military.org.jp> wrote:
I very much doubt we have the count of infections out by much. Why would we?
Because we only test people who are very sick and seem to have it. We
don't know how many have it and ignore it, or how many had it before
tests were available.
On Thu, 02 Apr 2020 17:22:33 +0100, "Commander Kinsey"
CFKinsey@military.org.jp> wrote:
On Thu, 02 Apr 2020 16:50:01 +0100, <jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com> wrote:
On Thu, 02 Apr 2020 16:22:20 +0100, "Commander Kinsey"
CFKinsey@military.org.jp> wrote:
On Thu, 02 Apr 2020 16:18:04 +0100, <jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com> wrote:
On Thu, 02 Apr 2020 15:51:38 +0100, "Commander Kinsey"
CFKinsey@military.org.jp> wrote:
On Mon, 30 Mar 2020 15:50:10 +0100, <jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com> wrote:
On Mon, 30 Mar 2020 09:43:12 +0100, Martin Brown
'''newspam'''@nezumi.demon.co.uk> wrote:
On 28/03/2020 02:41, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Sat, 28 Mar 2020 01:27:07 +0000, Tom Gardner
spamjunk@blueyonder.co.uk> wrote:
On 27/03/20 22:38, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
About 2.8 million people die in the US every year. 216K of those are
considered to be upper respiratory or flu/pneumonia. C19 has
officially killed 1544 so far.
The key phrase there is "so far".
US dailies are down slightly from yesterday, but the data is so noisy
that it will take a week or a month to really spot a trend. Some
european countries seem to have peaked. Different countries, even
neighbors, have very different patterns. There must be a lot of bad
data going around.
The only European country that might perhaps be close to peaking is
Italy but their health system is now so close to collapse that they are
airlifting some critical patients to German hospitals for ICU.
UK is expected to peak in May or June if the social distancing measures
are effective. Death rate peaks about two weeks after the daily
infection count reaches its highest point (typical residence time in
ICU). Fatalities will be much higher if ICU capacity is inadequate.
One thing you really should be worried by is that the US growth curve is
running ahead of Italy at the corresponding position. This is rather
surprising given that we know the sorts of things you should not do.
http://nrg.cs.ucl.ac.uk/mjh/covid19/#wn
That's the integral of cases, but the slopes are all declining.
Doubling time in the UK, Italy and Spain is presently 3 days. In the USA
it is 2 days and in Japan it is presently 8 days (though unclear how
much longer they can hold that line without taking further measures).
This site
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
has good graphs, but is's getting too popular/slow lately.
It doesn't matter how many catch it, we know that 4% of people who get it die.
Probably not. It might kill 4% of the people who were already sick and
are in hospitals with respiratory problems, and who have tested
positive for this virus. We don't know how many have been infected.
Maybe 2x, maybe 200x the official count.
It kills almost everybody in hospitals, as they're the ones that are most vulnerable to it.
Absolutely untrue, even among old people. Look it up.
It depends which lying news broadcaster bribed by the government that you believe.
I very much doubt we have the count of infections out by much. Why would we?
Because we only test people who are very sick and seem to have it. We
don't know how many have it and ignore it, or how many had it before
tests were available.
Easily worked out by guesswork, or random checking. Just like you don't have to ask every single person in the country which way they're going to vote to get a fairly accurate idea.
What we have a lot of is fear, panic, press, politics, and bad data.
Agreed. Which is why we should have ignored it entirely and let it run its course just like a cold or flu.
We could do voluntary social distancing, wipe down handrails, do some
basic sanitary stuff that we should always do. And isolate/protect old
and sick people, which we should also always do.
The lockdowns are trashing the economy, which hurts people, and are
probably not going to save many lives. We didn't lockdown in any of
the last few pandemics.
I expect some gigantic disruptions to the electronic supply chain. We
had a buying panic over some values of ceramic caps last year. You
ain't seen nothin yet.
We are doing a giant parts breakdown run now, and buying for a lot of
likely production, before the big panics. If we over-buy, we'll use
most of it eventually.
On Thursday, April 2, 2020 at 8:50:10 AM UTC-7, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Thu, 02 Apr 2020 16:22:20 +0100, "Commander Kinsey"
CFKinsey@military.org.jp> wrote:
I very much doubt we have the count of infections out by much. Why would we?
Because we only test people who are very sick and seem to have it. We
don't know how many have it and ignore it, or how many had it before
tests were available.
The outbreak maps do NOT show the uniformity that is consistent with
the high-undetected-infected-population hypothesis. No one believes it is safe to
assume that hypothesis, so it's useless. Testing here is showing about 7%
positives, which means the tests aren't only going to very ill (but it also
means we don't have good overall population coverage).
Waiting for a reliable test for immunity? Not a prudent option, rather we ought to
continue with isolation strategies.
On Thu, 02 Apr 2020 16:22:20 +0100, "Commander Kinsey"
CFKinsey@military.org.jp> wrote:
On Thu, 02 Apr 2020 16:18:04 +0100, <jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com> wrote:
On Thu, 02 Apr 2020 15:51:38 +0100, "Commander Kinsey"
CFKinsey@military.org.jp> wrote:
On Mon, 30 Mar 2020 15:50:10 +0100, <jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com> wrote:
On Mon, 30 Mar 2020 09:43:12 +0100, Martin Brown
'''newspam'''@nezumi.demon.co.uk> wrote:
On 28/03/2020 02:41, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Sat, 28 Mar 2020 01:27:07 +0000, Tom Gardner
spamjunk@blueyonder.co.uk> wrote:
On 27/03/20 22:38, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
About 2.8 million people die in the US every year. 216K of those are
considered to be upper respiratory or flu/pneumonia. C19 has
officially killed 1544 so far.
The key phrase there is "so far".
US dailies are down slightly from yesterday, but the data is so noisy
that it will take a week or a month to really spot a trend. Some
european countries seem to have peaked. Different countries, even
neighbors, have very different patterns. There must be a lot of bad
data going around.
The only European country that might perhaps be close to peaking is
Italy but their health system is now so close to collapse that they are
airlifting some critical patients to German hospitals for ICU.
UK is expected to peak in May or June if the social distancing measures
are effective. Death rate peaks about two weeks after the daily
infection count reaches its highest point (typical residence time in
ICU). Fatalities will be much higher if ICU capacity is inadequate.
One thing you really should be worried by is that the US growth curve is
running ahead of Italy at the corresponding position. This is rather
surprising given that we know the sorts of things you should not do.
http://nrg.cs.ucl.ac.uk/mjh/covid19/#wn
That's the integral of cases, but the slopes are all declining.
Doubling time in the UK, Italy and Spain is presently 3 days. In the USA
it is 2 days and in Japan it is presently 8 days (though unclear how
much longer they can hold that line without taking further measures).
This site
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
has good graphs, but is's getting too popular/slow lately.
It doesn't matter how many catch it, we know that 4% of people who get it die.
Probably not. It might kill 4% of the people who were already sick and
are in hospitals with respiratory problems, and who have tested
positive for this virus. We don't know how many have been infected.
Maybe 2x, maybe 200x the official count.
It kills almost everybody in hospitals, as they're the ones that are most vulnerable to it.
Absolutely untrue, even among old people. Look it up.
I very much doubt we have the count of infections out by much. Why would we?
Because we only test people who are very sick and seem to have it. We
don't know how many have it and ignore it, or how many had it before
tests were available.
What we have a lot of is fear, panic, press, politics, and bad data.
On 4/2/2020 11:50 AM, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Thu, 02 Apr 2020 16:22:20 +0100, "Commander Kinsey"
CFKinsey@military.org.jp> wrote:
On Thu, 02 Apr 2020 16:18:04 +0100,
jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com> wrote:
On Thu, 02 Apr 2020 15:51:38 +0100, "Commander Kinsey"
CFKinsey@military.org.jp> wrote:
On Mon, 30 Mar 2020 15:50:10 +0100,
jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com> wrote:
On Mon, 30 Mar 2020 09:43:12 +0100, Martin Brown
'''newspam'''@nezumi.demon.co.uk> wrote:
On 28/03/2020 02:41, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Sat, 28 Mar 2020 01:27:07 +0000, Tom Gardner
spamjunk@blueyonder.co.uk> wrote:
On 27/03/20 22:38, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
About 2.8 million people die in the US every year. 216K of
those are
considered to be upper respiratory or flu/pneumonia. C19 has
officially killed 1544 so far.
The key phrase there is "so far".
US dailies are down slightly from yesterday, but the data is so
noisy
that it will take a week or a month to really spot a trend. Some
european countries seem to have peaked. Different countries, even
neighbors, have very different patterns. There must be a lot of bad
data going around.
The only European country that might perhaps be close to peaking is
Italy but their health system is now so close to collapse that
they are
airlifting some critical patients to German hospitals for ICU.
UK is expected to peak in May or June if the social distancing
measures
are effective. Death rate peaks about two weeks after the daily
infection count reaches its highest point (typical residence time in
ICU). Fatalities will be much higher if ICU capacity is inadequate.
One thing you really should be worried by is that the US growth
curve is
running ahead of Italy at the corresponding position. This is rather
surprising given that we know the sorts of things you should not do.
http://nrg.cs.ucl.ac.uk/mjh/covid19/#wn
That's the integral of cases, but the slopes are all declining.
Doubling time in the UK, Italy and Spain is presently 3 days. In
the USA
it is 2 days and in Japan it is presently 8 days (though unclear how
much longer they can hold that line without taking further
measures).
This site
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
has good graphs, but is's getting too popular/slow lately.
It doesn't matter how many catch it, we know that 4% of people who
get it die.
Probably not. It might kill 4% of the people who were already sick and
are in hospitals with respiratory problems, and who have tested
positive for this virus. We don't know how many have been infected.
Maybe 2x, maybe 200x the official count.
It kills almost everybody in hospitals, as they're the ones that are
most vulnerable to it.
Absolutely untrue, even among old people. Look it up.
I very much doubt we have the count of infections out by much. Why
would we?
Because we only test people who are very sick and seem to have it. We
don't know how many have it and ignore it, or how many had it before
tests were available.
What we have a lot of is fear, panic, press, politics, and bad data.
What's with all these whack-jobs on the right talking about
hydroxychloroquine and zithromax like it's some miracle cure? Cuz Trump
said it? e.g.
https://market-ticker.org/
"It won't work for everyone but it sure looks like it works for almost
everyone."
bullshit. no hard evidence these drugs do a thing.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-02/hyped-malaria-drug-not-showing-much-effect-at-one-paris-hospital
On Thu, 02 Apr 2020 16:50:01 +0100, <jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com> wrote:
On Thu, 02 Apr 2020 16:22:20 +0100, "Commander Kinsey"
CFKinsey@military.org.jp> wrote:
On Thu, 02 Apr 2020 16:18:04 +0100, <jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com> wrote:
On Thu, 02 Apr 2020 15:51:38 +0100, "Commander Kinsey"
CFKinsey@military.org.jp> wrote:
On Mon, 30 Mar 2020 15:50:10 +0100, <jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com> wrote:
On Mon, 30 Mar 2020 09:43:12 +0100, Martin Brown
'''newspam'''@nezumi.demon.co.uk> wrote:
On 28/03/2020 02:41, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Sat, 28 Mar 2020 01:27:07 +0000, Tom Gardner
spamjunk@blueyonder.co.uk> wrote:
On 27/03/20 22:38, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
About 2.8 million people die in the US every year. 216K of those are
considered to be upper respiratory or flu/pneumonia. C19 has
officially killed 1544 so far.
The key phrase there is "so far".
US dailies are down slightly from yesterday, but the data is so noisy
that it will take a week or a month to really spot a trend. Some
european countries seem to have peaked. Different countries, even
neighbors, have very different patterns. There must be a lot of bad
data going around.
The only European country that might perhaps be close to peaking is
Italy but their health system is now so close to collapse that they are
airlifting some critical patients to German hospitals for ICU.
UK is expected to peak in May or June if the social distancing measures
are effective. Death rate peaks about two weeks after the daily
infection count reaches its highest point (typical residence time in
ICU). Fatalities will be much higher if ICU capacity is inadequate.
One thing you really should be worried by is that the US growth curve is
running ahead of Italy at the corresponding position. This is rather
surprising given that we know the sorts of things you should not do.
http://nrg.cs.ucl.ac.uk/mjh/covid19/#wn
That's the integral of cases, but the slopes are all declining.
Doubling time in the UK, Italy and Spain is presently 3 days. In the USA
it is 2 days and in Japan it is presently 8 days (though unclear how
much longer they can hold that line without taking further measures).
This site
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
has good graphs, but is's getting too popular/slow lately.
It doesn't matter how many catch it, we know that 4% of people who get it die.
Probably not. It might kill 4% of the people who were already sick and
are in hospitals with respiratory problems, and who have tested
positive for this virus. We don't know how many have been infected.
Maybe 2x, maybe 200x the official count.
It kills almost everybody in hospitals, as they're the ones that are most vulnerable to it.
Absolutely untrue, even among old people. Look it up.
It depends which lying news broadcaster bribed by the government that you believe.
I very much doubt we have the count of infections out by much. Why would we?
Because we only test people who are very sick and seem to have it. We
don't know how many have it and ignore it, or how many had it before
tests were available.
Easily worked out by guesswork, or random checking. Just like you don't have to ask every single person in the country which way they're going to vote to get a fairly accurate idea.
What we have a lot of is fear, panic, press, politics, and bad data.
Agreed. Which is why we should have ignored it entirely and let it run its course just like a cold or flu.
On Thursday, April 2, 2020 at 11:02:51 AM UTC-4, Commander Kinsey wrote:
On Thu, 02 Apr 2020 15:59:31 +0100, <edward.ming.lee@gmail.com> wrote:
On Thursday, April 2, 2020 at 7:51:42 AM UTC-7, Commander Kinsey wrote:
On Mon, 30 Mar 2020 15:50:10 +0100, <jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com> wrote:
On Mon, 30 Mar 2020 09:43:12 +0100, Martin Brown
'''newspam'''@nezumi.demon.co.uk> wrote:
On 28/03/2020 02:41, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Sat, 28 Mar 2020 01:27:07 +0000, Tom Gardner
spamjunk@blueyonder.co.uk> wrote:
On 27/03/20 22:38, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
About 2.8 million people die in the US every year. 216K of those are
considered to be upper respiratory or flu/pneumonia. C19 has
officially killed 1544 so far.
The key phrase there is "so far".
US dailies are down slightly from yesterday, but the data is so noisy
that it will take a week or a month to really spot a trend. Some
european countries seem to have peaked. Different countries, even
neighbors, have very different patterns. There must be a lot of bad
data going around.
The only European country that might perhaps be close to peaking is
Italy but their health system is now so close to collapse that they are
airlifting some critical patients to German hospitals for ICU.
UK is expected to peak in May or June if the social distancing measures
are effective. Death rate peaks about two weeks after the daily
infection count reaches its highest point (typical residence time in
ICU). Fatalities will be much higher if ICU capacity is inadequate.
One thing you really should be worried by is that the US growth curve is
running ahead of Italy at the corresponding position. This is rather
surprising given that we know the sorts of things you should not do.
http://nrg.cs.ucl.ac.uk/mjh/covid19/#wn
That's the integral of cases, but the slopes are all declining.
Doubling time in the UK, Italy and Spain is presently 3 days. In the USA
it is 2 days and in Japan it is presently 8 days (though unclear how
much longer they can hold that line without taking further measures).
This site
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
has good graphs, but is's getting too popular/slow lately.
It doesn't matter how many catch it, we know that 4% of people who get it die. So the absolute maximum death toll is 4% of the world. That's far preferable to the stupid over the top government restrictions which will see the world economy collapse and countless business go bankrupt. Why not just lock in the vulnerable (elderly etc) people and let everyone else just have a week's sick days off work if they happen to catch it? Because that's all most people get, 7 days of lying in bed.
Yes, sir:
4% to 6% die, but 20% to 30% get diminished lung capacities due to tissue damages. I think we should avoid it and control the damages.
What we should be doing is sending China the bill. That's TWICE they've sent out a virus due to unclean wet meat markets. TWICE. They clearly didn't learn from SARS.
Do you think they will send us a bill for swine flu?
On Thu, 02 Apr 2020 15:59:31 +0100, <edward.ming.lee@gmail.com> wrote:
On Thursday, April 2, 2020 at 7:51:42 AM UTC-7, Commander Kinsey wrote:
On Mon, 30 Mar 2020 15:50:10 +0100, <jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com> wrote:
On Mon, 30 Mar 2020 09:43:12 +0100, Martin Brown
'''newspam'''@nezumi.demon.co.uk> wrote:
On 28/03/2020 02:41, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Sat, 28 Mar 2020 01:27:07 +0000, Tom Gardner
spamjunk@blueyonder.co.uk> wrote:
On 27/03/20 22:38, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
About 2.8 million people die in the US every year. 216K of those are
considered to be upper respiratory or flu/pneumonia. C19 has
officially killed 1544 so far.
The key phrase there is "so far".
US dailies are down slightly from yesterday, but the data is so noisy
that it will take a week or a month to really spot a trend. Some
european countries seem to have peaked. Different countries, even
neighbors, have very different patterns. There must be a lot of bad
data going around.
The only European country that might perhaps be close to peaking is
Italy but their health system is now so close to collapse that they are
airlifting some critical patients to German hospitals for ICU.
UK is expected to peak in May or June if the social distancing measures
are effective. Death rate peaks about two weeks after the daily
infection count reaches its highest point (typical residence time in
ICU). Fatalities will be much higher if ICU capacity is inadequate.
One thing you really should be worried by is that the US growth curve is
running ahead of Italy at the corresponding position. This is rather
surprising given that we know the sorts of things you should not do..
http://nrg.cs.ucl.ac.uk/mjh/covid19/#wn
That's the integral of cases, but the slopes are all declining.
Doubling time in the UK, Italy and Spain is presently 3 days. In the USA
it is 2 days and in Japan it is presently 8 days (though unclear how
much longer they can hold that line without taking further measures).
This site
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
has good graphs, but is's getting too popular/slow lately.
It doesn't matter how many catch it, we know that 4% of people who get it die. So the absolute maximum death toll is 4% of the world. That's far preferable to the stupid over the top government restrictions which will see the world economy collapse and countless business go bankrupt. Why not just lock in the vulnerable (elderly etc) people and let everyone else just have a week's sick days off work if they happen to catch it? Because that's all most people get, 7 days of lying in bed.
Yes, sir:
4% to 6% die, but 20% to 30% get diminished lung capacities due to tissue damages. I think we should avoid it and control the damages.
It's just a bad flu, stop being such a sissy. If you want to avoid it, nobody is stopping you. But closing half the world down is causing way more problems.