When is the Covid war over?

[Rick C]

On Monday, March 30, 2020 at 4:43:17 AM UTC-4, Martin Brown wrote:

On 28/03/2020 02:41, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Sat, 28 Mar 2020 01:27:07 +0000, Tom Gardner
spamjunk@blueyonder.co.uk> wrote:

On 27/03/20 22:38, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
About 2.8 million people die in the US every year. 216K of those are
considered to be upper respiratory or flu/pneumonia. C19 has
officially killed 1544 so far.

The key phrase there is "so far".


US dailies are down slightly from yesterday, but the data is so noisy
that it will take a week or a month to really spot a trend. Some
european countries seem to have peaked. Different countries, even
neighbors, have very different patterns. There must be a lot of bad
data going around.

The only European country that might perhaps be close to peaking is
Italy but their health system is now so close to collapse that they are
airlifting some critical patients to German hospitals for ICU.

UK is expected to peak in May or June if the social distancing measures
are effective. Death rate peaks about two weeks after the daily
infection count reaches its highest point (typical residence time in
ICU). Fatalities will be much higher if ICU capacity is inadequate.

One thing you really should be worried by is that the US growth curve is
running ahead of Italy at the corresponding position. This is rather
surprising given that we know the sorts of things you should not do.

http://nrg.cs.ucl.ac.uk/mjh/covid19/#wn

Doubling time in the UK, Italy and Spain is presently 3 days. In the USA
it is 2 days and in Japan it is presently 8 days (though unclear how
much longer they can hold that line without taking further measures).

Wow! I'd love to see your numbers. The growth rate of this disease is decreasing, not increasing. The last few days the number of new cases has be increasing less rapidly and in fact, the number of new cases was less yesterday than the day before. It is consistent enough that it seems we are finally having an impact even if it is far too small still.

The point is the doubling rate in the US was never 2 days and is not now 2 days.

--

Rick C.

--+- Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
--+- Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

 

[Bill Sloman]

On Tuesday, March 31, 2020 at 1:50:18 AM UTC+11, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:

On Mon, 30 Mar 2020 09:43:12 +0100, Martin Brown
'''newspam'''@nezumi.demon.co.uk> wrote:

On 28/03/2020 02:41, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Sat, 28 Mar 2020 01:27:07 +0000, Tom Gardner
spamjunk@blueyonder.co.uk> wrote:

On 27/03/20 22:38, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
About 2.8 million people die in the US every year. 216K of those are
considered to be upper respiratory or flu/pneumonia. C19 has
officially killed 1544 so far.

The key phrase there is "so far".

US dailies are down slightly from yesterday, but the data is so noisy
that it will take a week or a month to really spot a trend. Some
european countries seem to have peaked. Different countries, even
neighbors, have very different patterns. There must be a lot of bad
data going around.

The only European country that might perhaps be close to peaking is
Italy but their health system is now so close to collapse that they are
airlifting some critical patients to German hospitals for ICU.

UK is expected to peak in May or June if the social distancing measures
are effective. Death rate peaks about two weeks after the daily
infection count reaches its highest point (typical residence time in
ICU). Fatalities will be much higher if ICU capacity is inadequate.

One thing you really should be worried by is that the US growth curve is
running ahead of Italy at the corresponding position. This is rather
surprising given that we know the sorts of things you should not do.

http://nrg.cs.ucl.ac.uk/mjh/covid19/#wn

That's the integral of cases, but the slopes are all declining.


Doubling time in the UK, Italy and Spain is presently 3 days. In the USA
it is 2 days and in Japan it is presently 8 days (though unclear how
much longer they can hold that line without taking further measures).

This site

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

has good graphs, but is's getting too popular/slow lately.

Italy new-case count is 8 days past peak.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/

Maybe, but its not declining all that rapidly. The 28th March number is still 4050, less than the 6557 on the 21st March, but still lots of new cases.

When China peaked on the 4th February - at 3884 new cases - the new case count on the 11th February was 2015 cases. Italy may now be on the same trajectory, but the various population centres contributing clearly didn't get their schemes to reduce new infections up to the mark at the same rate.

> Spain has dropped 5 days in a row.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/spain/

but not by much yet. 30th March was 7846 new cases, down from 8271 on the 26th March, but not much. Up from 6875 on the previous day.

> UK peaked on the 26th.

But again the new case rate hasn't gone down much yet.

The US peaked on the 27th.

Not according to

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

where the 30th March number of new cases - 20253 - is the highest yet. The new case number isn't rising exponentially any more, but it isn't going down yet, and it has to go down a lot before your health system isn't at risk of running out of beds.

Most countries are down by several days from peak. I hope this isn't just
lazy weekend data collection. And I hope that testing density has
actually increased the numbers.

I think I'm seeing bell-shaped bumps about a month wide, near or past
peaks now. I hope that's real and continues.

A couple of sources suggest world total new cases peaked a couple of
days ago. But it's certainly not growing exponentially any more.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-cases/#daily-cases

A world-total bell-bump will of course be broader and somewhat later
than the earlier spikes.

It integrates over what we hope will be a series of one month wide bell curves.

Places like Iran, India and Indonesia may not do as well at going into lock down.

Iran's numbers don't look as if they are going to see decreasing number of new cases per day any time soon.

John Larkin is still in Pollyanna mode.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

 

[John Larkin]

On Tue, 31 Mar 2020 15:26:53 -0700 (PDT), dagmargoodboat@yahoo.com
wrote:

On Monday, March 30, 2020 at 4:43:17 AM UTC-4, Martin Brown wrote:
On 28/03/2020 02:41, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Sat, 28 Mar 2020 01:27:07 +0000, Tom Gardner
spamjunk@blueyonder.co.uk> wrote:

On 27/03/20 22:38, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
About 2.8 million people die in the US every year. 216K of those are
considered to be upper respiratory or flu/pneumonia. C19 has
officially killed 1544 so far.

The key phrase there is "so far".


US dailies are down slightly from yesterday, but the data is so noisy
that it will take a week or a month to really spot a trend. Some
european countries seem to have peaked. Different countries, even
neighbors, have very different patterns. There must be a lot of bad
data going around.

The only European country that might perhaps be close to peaking is
Italy but their health system is now so close to collapse that they are
airlifting some critical patients to German hospitals for ICU.

UK is expected to peak in May or June if the social distancing measures
are effective. Death rate peaks about two weeks after the daily
infection count reaches its highest point (typical residence time in
ICU). Fatalities will be much higher if ICU capacity is inadequate.

One thing you really should be worried by is that the US growth curve is
running ahead of Italy at the corresponding position. This is rather
surprising given that we know the sorts of things you should not do.

http://nrg.cs.ucl.ac.uk/mjh/covid19/#wn

Doubling time in the UK, Italy and Spain is presently 3 days. In the USA
it is 2 days

For the past seven days, the U.S. case growth has been increasing at
1.17x per day, a doubling time of just over four days.

Mar 29 / Mar 28 ratio 1.08.

Mar 29 / Mar 27 ratio 1.055

Washington state is down about 20%, this week from last week.

--

John Larkin Highland Technology, Inc
picosecond timing precision measurement

jlarkin att highlandtechnology dott com
http://www.highlandtechnology.com

 

On Monday, March 30, 2020 at 4:43:17 AM UTC-4, Martin Brown wrote:

On 28/03/2020 02:41, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Sat, 28 Mar 2020 01:27:07 +0000, Tom Gardner
spamjunk@blueyonder.co.uk> wrote:

On 27/03/20 22:38, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
About 2.8 million people die in the US every year. 216K of those are
considered to be upper respiratory or flu/pneumonia. C19 has
officially killed 1544 so far.

The key phrase there is "so far".


US dailies are down slightly from yesterday, but the data is so noisy
that it will take a week or a month to really spot a trend. Some
european countries seem to have peaked. Different countries, even
neighbors, have very different patterns. There must be a lot of bad
data going around.

The only European country that might perhaps be close to peaking is
Italy but their health system is now so close to collapse that they are
airlifting some critical patients to German hospitals for ICU.

UK is expected to peak in May or June if the social distancing measures
are effective. Death rate peaks about two weeks after the daily
infection count reaches its highest point (typical residence time in
ICU). Fatalities will be much higher if ICU capacity is inadequate.

One thing you really should be worried by is that the US growth curve is
running ahead of Italy at the corresponding position. This is rather
surprising given that we know the sorts of things you should not do.

http://nrg.cs.ucl.ac.uk/mjh/covid19/#wn

Doubling time in the UK, Italy and Spain is presently 3 days. In the USA
it is 2 days

For the past seven days, the U.S. case growth has been increasing at
1.17x per day, a doubling time of just over four days.

and in Japan it is presently 8 days (though unclear how
much longer they can hold that line without taking further measures).

Cheers,
James Arthur

 

[Rick C]

On Tuesday, March 31, 2020 at 6:26:58 PM UTC-4, dagmarg...@yahoo.com wrote:

On Monday, March 30, 2020 at 4:43:17 AM UTC-4, Martin Brown wrote:
On 28/03/2020 02:41, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Sat, 28 Mar 2020 01:27:07 +0000, Tom Gardner
spamjunk@blueyonder.co.uk> wrote:

On 27/03/20 22:38, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
About 2.8 million people die in the US every year. 216K of those are
considered to be upper respiratory or flu/pneumonia. C19 has
officially killed 1544 so far.

The key phrase there is "so far".


US dailies are down slightly from yesterday, but the data is so noisy
that it will take a week or a month to really spot a trend. Some
european countries seem to have peaked. Different countries, even
neighbors, have very different patterns. There must be a lot of bad
data going around.

The only European country that might perhaps be close to peaking is
Italy but their health system is now so close to collapse that they are
airlifting some critical patients to German hospitals for ICU.

UK is expected to peak in May or June if the social distancing measures
are effective. Death rate peaks about two weeks after the daily
infection count reaches its highest point (typical residence time in
ICU). Fatalities will be much higher if ICU capacity is inadequate.

One thing you really should be worried by is that the US growth curve is
running ahead of Italy at the corresponding position. This is rather
surprising given that we know the sorts of things you should not do.

http://nrg.cs.ucl.ac.uk/mjh/covid19/#wn

Doubling time in the UK, Italy and Spain is presently 3 days. In the USA
it is 2 days

For the past seven days, the U.S. case growth has been increasing at
1.17x per day, a doubling time of just over four days.

By my measure the growth rate was 30% on March 23 dropping nearly every day to 14% on the 30th. 17% may be the average, but the trend is pretty clear at this point. Our growth rate (in population, vs. %) is about leveling off and should start dropping. That said, this is still a long way off from the infection count leveling off and dropping. The numbers of reported recovered in the US are still very low.

With the infection count continuing to increase the infection rate will remain high even with "social distancing" and an end to the measures are a long way off.

and in Japan it is presently 8 days (though unclear how
much longer they can hold that line without taking further measures).

Just like here where we have governors who feel their state "doesn't have a problem" that needs to be addressed with severe measures. Why can't anyone learn from the mistakes of others???

I so wish I could have a 15 minute presentation to show a few charts of information to the people in charge. The final image would be the question, "Do you get it now, YOU FUCKING IDIOT?"

Apparently the Governor of AZ got that presentation from someone. After saying their state didn't need that sort of extreme measure he relented and gave a stat at home order. What a maroon as Bugs Bunny would say.

I especially like that Larkin thinks the curtailing of the infection rate we are starting to see was an inevitable consequence of infections. Yes, they will stop being exponential when a high proportion of the population is infected. But it would be so good if we stopped it before that point and that takes significant isolation. Larkin talks as if this is happening because that's what infections do.

Is Larkin really that stupid or does he just like pretending to as to wind up everyone?

--

Rick C.

--++ Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
--++ Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

 

[Dave Platt]

In article <6940e0f4-f096-4529-9815-0659b860018c@googlegroups.com>,
Rick C <gnuarm.deletethisbit@gmail.com> wrote:

and in Japan it is presently 8 days (though unclear how
much longer they can hold that line without taking further measures).

Just like here where we have governors who feel their state "doesn't have a problem" that needs to be
addressed with severe measures. Why can't anyone learn from the mistakes of others???

Because they're fond of the classics. A freak-out in Kansas, a
freak-out in Minnesota, a freak-out in Washington DC...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=svdrAHn_LGo

 

On Tuesday, March 31, 2020 at 6:34:50 PM UTC-4, John Larkin wrote:

On Tue, 31 Mar 2020 15:26:53 -0700 (PDT), dagmargoodboat@yahoo.com
wrote:

On Monday, March 30, 2020 at 4:43:17 AM UTC-4, Martin Brown wrote:
On 28/03/2020 02:41, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Sat, 28 Mar 2020 01:27:07 +0000, Tom Gardner
spamjunk@blueyonder.co.uk> wrote:

On 27/03/20 22:38, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
About 2.8 million people die in the US every year. 216K of those are
considered to be upper respiratory or flu/pneumonia. C19 has
officially killed 1544 so far.

The key phrase there is "so far".


US dailies are down slightly from yesterday, but the data is so noisy
that it will take a week or a month to really spot a trend. Some
european countries seem to have peaked. Different countries, even
neighbors, have very different patterns. There must be a lot of bad
data going around.

The only European country that might perhaps be close to peaking is
Italy but their health system is now so close to collapse that they are
airlifting some critical patients to German hospitals for ICU.

UK is expected to peak in May or June if the social distancing measures
are effective. Death rate peaks about two weeks after the daily
infection count reaches its highest point (typical residence time in
ICU). Fatalities will be much higher if ICU capacity is inadequate.

One thing you really should be worried by is that the US growth curve is
running ahead of Italy at the corresponding position. This is rather
surprising given that we know the sorts of things you should not do.

http://nrg.cs.ucl.ac.uk/mjh/covid19/#wn

Doubling time in the UK, Italy and Spain is presently 3 days. In the USA
it is 2 days

For the past seven days, the U.S. case growth has been increasing at
1.17x per day, a doubling time of just over four days.

Mar 29 / Mar 28 ratio 1.08.

Mar 29 / Mar 27 ratio 1.055

Washington state is down about 20%, this week from last week.

U.S. COVID-19 WUFLU CASES COUNTY BY COUNTY (interactive map) *****
https://www.sylacauganews.com/

Cheers,
James

 

[Rick C]

On Tuesday, March 31, 2020 at 8:59:10 PM UTC-4, dagmarg...@yahoo.com wrote:

U.S. COVID-19 CASES COUNTY BY COUNTY (interactive map) *****
https://www.sylacauganews.com/

That's a great visual to show how the infections are concentrated in parts of the US. So it is silly to talk about ppm infection rates across the country. It actually doesn't make much sense to talk about infection rates across a state. So no, a one size fits all solution doesn't make sense.

But that's not the same as saying we should not take action. In the state of VA there are about 9 counties with more than 25 infections counted. Should the other 96 counties be in total lock down with stay at home orders? It looks like a third of the counties have zero confirmed infections.

Then looking at the corridor from Boston to New York to Philadelphia to Baltimore to Washington, it's pretty well infected. Clearly all of that should be in as tight a lock down as possible.

Looking at Florida it seems insane they would resist a stay at home order. Pretty much everywhere other than the pan handle is well infected. Maybe we should draw a line just south of Disney World, cut the state and shove it off into the Caribbean.

Lather, rinse, repeat across the US. Address the problem where it is. Maybe then we can get the more infected areas cleaned up and not inoculating the rest of the country. Then some of the less infected areas can get back to work.

--

Rick C.

-+-- Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
-+-- Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

 

On Tuesday, March 31, 2020 at 6:24:55 PM UTC-7, Rick C wrote:

On Tuesday, March 31, 2020 at 8:59:10 PM UTC-4, dagmarg...@yahoo.com wrote:

U.S. COVID-19 CASES COUNTY BY COUNTY (interactive map) *****
https://www.sylacauganews.com/

That's a great visual to show how the infections are concentrated in parts of the US. So it is silly to talk about ppm infection rates across the country. It actually doesn't make much sense to talk about infection rates across a state. So no, a one size fits all solution doesn't make sense.

But misleading. It makes LA looks worst than NYC.

 

On Tue, 31 Mar 2020 17:59:03 -0700 (PDT), dagmargoodboat@yahoo.com
wrote:

On Tuesday, March 31, 2020 at 6:34:50 PM UTC-4, John Larkin wrote:
On Tue, 31 Mar 2020 15:26:53 -0700 (PDT), dagmargoodboat@yahoo.com
wrote:

On Monday, March 30, 2020 at 4:43:17 AM UTC-4, Martin Brown wrote:
On 28/03/2020 02:41, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Sat, 28 Mar 2020 01:27:07 +0000, Tom Gardner
spamjunk@blueyonder.co.uk> wrote:

On 27/03/20 22:38, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
About 2.8 million people die in the US every year. 216K of those are
considered to be upper respiratory or flu/pneumonia. C19 has
officially killed 1544 so far.

The key phrase there is "so far".


US dailies are down slightly from yesterday, but the data is so noisy
that it will take a week or a month to really spot a trend. Some
european countries seem to have peaked. Different countries, even
neighbors, have very different patterns. There must be a lot of bad
data going around.

The only European country that might perhaps be close to peaking is
Italy but their health system is now so close to collapse that they are
airlifting some critical patients to German hospitals for ICU.

UK is expected to peak in May or June if the social distancing measures
are effective. Death rate peaks about two weeks after the daily
infection count reaches its highest point (typical residence time in
ICU). Fatalities will be much higher if ICU capacity is inadequate.

One thing you really should be worried by is that the US growth curve is
running ahead of Italy at the corresponding position. This is rather
surprising given that we know the sorts of things you should not do.

http://nrg.cs.ucl.ac.uk/mjh/covid19/#wn

Doubling time in the UK, Italy and Spain is presently 3 days. In the USA
it is 2 days

For the past seven days, the U.S. case growth has been increasing at
1.17x per day, a doubling time of just over four days.

Mar 29 / Mar 28 ratio 1.08.

Mar 29 / Mar 27 ratio 1.055

Washington state is down about 20%, this week from last week.

U.S. COVID-19 WUFLU CASES COUNTY BY COUNTY (interactive map) *****
https://www.sylacauganews.com/

Cheers,
James

Our local rag, the San Francisco Chronicle (aka Chronic, aka Comical)
has for weeks been 100% corona virus. Almost every article was virus
or mentioned it, in every section. The New York Times ditto. NPR radio
too. All the Internet news ditto. Saturation.

A few years ago, it was all climate change. Then Russian Interference.
Then impeachment.

A year ago, if you turned on NPR radio, the median delay before
hearing "Trump" was about 10 seconds. A few days ago, "virus" was
about the same.

I was astonished by this morning's Chron. Half the articles had
nothing to do with coronavirus! Overnight! The big shift looks to be
back to climate change, until the news industry finds a new crisis to
fixate on. Seems the sea level here will go up four feet in the next
couple decades. The airport will be under water.

Has anyone seen The New York Times? We only get the Sunday paper.

I thought the Web would create a diversity of news and things to think
about. So many new, inexpensive ways to publish. Boy, was I wrong.
Everything swings together, echo-chamber saturation, one obcession
after another peaks and burns out.

In the early days of TV, people thought there would be education,
culture, theatre, science available to the masses. At first, there
was. Now we have 150 channels of garbage.



--

John Larkin Highland Technology, Inc

Science teaches us to doubt.

Claude Bernard

 

[John Larkin]

On Wed, 1 Apr 2020 11:07:16 -0700 (PDT), dagmargoodboat@yahoo.com
wrote:

On Sunday, March 29, 2020 at 11:09:15 PM UTC-4, Clifford Heath wrote:
On 30/3/20 1:18 pm, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Sun, 29 Mar 2020 17:35:35 -0700 (PDT), dagmargoodboat@yahoo.com
wrote:

On Saturday, March 28, 2020 at 12:57:01 PM UTC-4, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Sat, 28 Mar 2020 08:45:11 +0000, Jeff Layman
jmlayman@invalid.invalid> wrote:

On 28/03/20 03:00, Bill Sloman wrote:

But the Covid-19 death numbers are growing exponentially. If James Arthur's 1.24 increase per day persists for 23 days, there will be have been as many Civd-19 deaths in those 23 days as 216k respiratory disease deaths that the US has in a year.

I can understand the general public having little comprehension of what
"exponential" means, but I am surprised that it seems to have been
ignored or misunderstood by those who should know better. Stating
figures about deaths from other causes misses the point entirely; they
are known causes, understood, and changes in the death rate - whether
up, down, or constant, is explicable, linear, and usually minor.

One other point is misunderstood. We talk about treatment by intensive
care and use of ventilators. The problem is those are finite sources,
maybe increasing slightly as time goes on, but the exponential growth of
coronavirus infections will drown those increases. If there are 10000
ventilators today, and 20000 next week, it won't help much if there are
10000 cases of Covid-19 today and 100000 next week.

I understand exponential growth. There would be 1 million the
following week, then 10 million the next week, and 100 billion cases a
month after that. The US will hit 100 billion cases around the end of
April.

100 billion's manageable. In newsmath, those could still be funded
(a million dollars each) from Mike Bloomberg's campaign spending.

The problem happens a month later, when there'll be 8,128.5494322736
times as many cases. California's brilliant governor will need to
find another 19,543 hospital beds.

Cheers,
James

I'm mostly through re-reading Barry's influenza book. The 1918
influenza was immensely worse than this thing. Over 4000 people died
per day in Philadelphia. Europeans seemed to have some immunity, and
some native villages and islands were wiped out entirely; no
survivors.

In any locality, the time from first case to burnout was about 6
weeks, more like 4 weeks at crowded army bases. It grew as a
bell-shaped curve with the tail chopped off, exponential start and a
very abrupt end.

I can, maybe optimistically, imagine that sort of curve in the data
from a lot of countries now. Initial fast growth but now flat or
declining.

There's an exceptionally good presentation of the reasons for the
Australian approach, by someone who "gets" both the biology and the
maths, here:

https://iser.med.unsw.edu.au/blog/busting-myths-about-covid-19-herd-immunity-children-and-lives-vs-jobs

Unfortunately the USA has probably squandered the opportunity to take
this approach, so will have to be shunned by the rest of the world for
years while a million or more die in repeated cyclic outbreaks, until an
effective vaccine controls the outbreak. It's a catastrophic failure of
governance.

CH


Crunching the numbers from worldometers.info today,

cases deaths infection rate (ppm)
Europe 470,388 32,636 1,385
EU 399,188 29,132 1,176

USA 200,289 4,394 605

Cheers,
James Arthur

Stop annoying people with data.

--

John Larkin Highland Technology, Inc
picosecond timing precision measurement

jlarkin att highlandtechnology dott com
http://www.highlandtechnology.com

 

On Sunday, March 29, 2020 at 11:09:15 PM UTC-4, Clifford Heath wrote:

On 30/3/20 1:18 pm, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Sun, 29 Mar 2020 17:35:35 -0700 (PDT), dagmargoodboat@yahoo.com
wrote:

On Saturday, March 28, 2020 at 12:57:01 PM UTC-4, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Sat, 28 Mar 2020 08:45:11 +0000, Jeff Layman
jmlayman@invalid.invalid> wrote:

On 28/03/20 03:00, Bill Sloman wrote:

But the Covid-19 death numbers are growing exponentially. If James Arthur's 1.24 increase per day persists for 23 days, there will be have been as many Civd-19 deaths in those 23 days as 216k respiratory disease deaths that the US has in a year.

I can understand the general public having little comprehension of what
"exponential" means, but I am surprised that it seems to have been
ignored or misunderstood by those who should know better. Stating
figures about deaths from other causes misses the point entirely; they
are known causes, understood, and changes in the death rate - whether
up, down, or constant, is explicable, linear, and usually minor.

One other point is misunderstood. We talk about treatment by intensive
care and use of ventilators. The problem is those are finite sources,
maybe increasing slightly as time goes on, but the exponential growth of
coronavirus infections will drown those increases. If there are 10000
ventilators today, and 20000 next week, it won't help much if there are
10000 cases of Covid-19 today and 100000 next week.

I understand exponential growth. There would be 1 million the
following week, then 10 million the next week, and 100 billion cases a
month after that. The US will hit 100 billion cases around the end of
April.

100 billion's manageable. In newsmath, those could still be funded
(a million dollars each) from Mike Bloomberg's campaign spending.

The problem happens a month later, when there'll be 8,128.5494322736
times as many cases. California's brilliant governor will need to
find another 19,543 hospital beds.

Cheers,
James

I'm mostly through re-reading Barry's influenza book. The 1918
influenza was immensely worse than this thing. Over 4000 people died
per day in Philadelphia. Europeans seemed to have some immunity, and
some native villages and islands were wiped out entirely; no
survivors.

In any locality, the time from first case to burnout was about 6
weeks, more like 4 weeks at crowded army bases. It grew as a
bell-shaped curve with the tail chopped off, exponential start and a
very abrupt end.

I can, maybe optimistically, imagine that sort of curve in the data
from a lot of countries now. Initial fast growth but now flat or
declining.

There's an exceptionally good presentation of the reasons for the
Australian approach, by someone who "gets" both the biology and the
maths, here:

https://iser.med.unsw.edu.au/blog/busting-myths-about-covid-19-herd-immunity-children-and-lives-vs-jobs

Unfortunately the USA has probably squandered the opportunity to take
this approach, so will have to be shunned by the rest of the world for
years while a million or more die in repeated cyclic outbreaks, until an
effective vaccine controls the outbreak. It's a catastrophic failure of
governance.

CH

Crunching the numbers from worldometers.info today,

cases deaths infection rate (ppm)
Europe 470,388 32,636 1,385
EU 399,188 29,132 1,176

USA 200,289 4,394 605

Cheers,
James Arthur

 

[whit3rd]

On Wednesday, April 1, 2020 at 9:25:52 AM UTC-7, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:

Our local rag, the San Francisco Chronicle (aka Chronic, aka Comical)
has for weeks been 100% corona virus....
A few years ago, it was all climate change. Then Russian Interference.
Then impeachment.

Yeah, the 'daily news cycle' has a fixation on the wide world's problems
and solutions, and especially on public changes that you'll be encountering
as a result.

When you want to read something less breaking-news-topics related,
just dust off that old box of National Geographic from the attic.
Or, maybe re-read the Intel 1103 DRAM datasheet. That's safely
disconnected from current realities, ought to be quite soothing.

 

On Wednesday, April 1, 2020 at 2:18:20 PM UTC-4, John Larkin wrote:

On Wed, 1 Apr 2020 11:07:16 -0700 (PDT), dagmargoodboat@yahoo.com
wrote:

On Sunday, March 29, 2020 at 11:09:15 PM UTC-4, Clifford Heath wrote:
On 30/3/20 1:18 pm, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Sun, 29 Mar 2020 17:35:35 -0700 (PDT), dagmargoodboat@yahoo.com
wrote:

On Saturday, March 28, 2020 at 12:57:01 PM UTC-4, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Sat, 28 Mar 2020 08:45:11 +0000, Jeff Layman
jmlayman@invalid.invalid> wrote:

On 28/03/20 03:00, Bill Sloman wrote:

But the Covid-19 death numbers are growing exponentially. If James Arthur's 1.24 increase per day persists for 23 days, there will be have been as many Civd-19 deaths in those 23 days as 216k respiratory disease deaths that the US has in a year.

I can understand the general public having little comprehension of what
"exponential" means, but I am surprised that it seems to have been
ignored or misunderstood by those who should know better. Stating
figures about deaths from other causes misses the point entirely; they
are known causes, understood, and changes in the death rate - whether
up, down, or constant, is explicable, linear, and usually minor.

One other point is misunderstood. We talk about treatment by intensive
care and use of ventilators. The problem is those are finite sources,
maybe increasing slightly as time goes on, but the exponential growth of
coronavirus infections will drown those increases. If there are 10000
ventilators today, and 20000 next week, it won't help much if there are
10000 cases of Covid-19 today and 100000 next week.

I understand exponential growth. There would be 1 million the
following week, then 10 million the next week, and 100 billion cases a
month after that. The US will hit 100 billion cases around the end of
April.

100 billion's manageable. In newsmath, those could still be funded
(a million dollars each) from Mike Bloomberg's campaign spending.

The problem happens a month later, when there'll be 8,128.5494322736
times as many cases. California's brilliant governor will need to
find another 19,543 hospital beds.

Cheers,
James

I'm mostly through re-reading Barry's influenza book. The 1918
influenza was immensely worse than this thing. Over 4000 people died
per day in Philadelphia. Europeans seemed to have some immunity, and
some native villages and islands were wiped out entirely; no
survivors.

In any locality, the time from first case to burnout was about 6
weeks, more like 4 weeks at crowded army bases. It grew as a
bell-shaped curve with the tail chopped off, exponential start and a
very abrupt end.

I can, maybe optimistically, imagine that sort of curve in the data
from a lot of countries now. Initial fast growth but now flat or
declining.

There's an exceptionally good presentation of the reasons for the
Australian approach, by someone who "gets" both the biology and the
maths, here:

https://iser.med.unsw.edu.au/blog/busting-myths-about-covid-19-herd-immunity-children-and-lives-vs-jobs

Unfortunately the USA has probably squandered the opportunity to take
this approach, so will have to be shunned by the rest of the world for
years while a million or more die in repeated cyclic outbreaks, until an
effective vaccine controls the outbreak. It's a catastrophic failure of
governance.

CH


Crunching the numbers from worldometers.info today,

cases | deaths | infection rate (ppm)
--------+--------+---------------------
Europe 470,388 | 32,636 | 1,385
EU 399,188 | 29,132 | 1,176
---------------+--------+---------------------
USA 200,289 | 4,394 | 605


Stop annoying people with data.

Sooorrrrrryyyyy.

Clifford's right, it's here, and it's growing. But we didn't
start it.

Perhaps we should've cut off travel from Europe earlier.

Cheers,
James

 

[Rick C]

On Wednesday, April 1, 2020 at 2:07:28 PM UTC-4, dagmarg...@yahoo.com wrote:

On Sunday, March 29, 2020 at 11:09:15 PM UTC-4, Clifford Heath wrote:
On 30/3/20 1:18 pm, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Sun, 29 Mar 2020 17:35:35 -0700 (PDT), dagmargoodboat@yahoo.com
wrote:

On Saturday, March 28, 2020 at 12:57:01 PM UTC-4, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Sat, 28 Mar 2020 08:45:11 +0000, Jeff Layman
jmlayman@invalid.invalid> wrote:

On 28/03/20 03:00, Bill Sloman wrote:

But the Covid-19 death numbers are growing exponentially. If James Arthur's 1.24 increase per day persists for 23 days, there will be have been as many Civd-19 deaths in those 23 days as 216k respiratory disease deaths that the US has in a year.

I can understand the general public having little comprehension of what
"exponential" means, but I am surprised that it seems to have been
ignored or misunderstood by those who should know better. Stating
figures about deaths from other causes misses the point entirely; they
are known causes, understood, and changes in the death rate - whether
up, down, or constant, is explicable, linear, and usually minor.

One other point is misunderstood. We talk about treatment by intensive
care and use of ventilators. The problem is those are finite sources,
maybe increasing slightly as time goes on, but the exponential growth of
coronavirus infections will drown those increases. If there are 10000
ventilators today, and 20000 next week, it won't help much if there are
10000 cases of Covid-19 today and 100000 next week.

I understand exponential growth. There would be 1 million the
following week, then 10 million the next week, and 100 billion cases a
month after that. The US will hit 100 billion cases around the end of
April.

100 billion's manageable. In newsmath, those could still be funded
(a million dollars each) from Mike Bloomberg's campaign spending.

The problem happens a month later, when there'll be 8,128.5494322736
times as many cases. California's brilliant governor will need to
find another 19,543 hospital beds.

Cheers,
James

I'm mostly through re-reading Barry's influenza book. The 1918
influenza was immensely worse than this thing. Over 4000 people died
per day in Philadelphia. Europeans seemed to have some immunity, and
some native villages and islands were wiped out entirely; no
survivors.

In any locality, the time from first case to burnout was about 6
weeks, more like 4 weeks at crowded army bases. It grew as a
bell-shaped curve with the tail chopped off, exponential start and a
very abrupt end.

I can, maybe optimistically, imagine that sort of curve in the data
from a lot of countries now. Initial fast growth but now flat or
declining.

There's an exceptionally good presentation of the reasons for the
Australian approach, by someone who "gets" both the biology and the
maths, here:

https://iser.med.unsw.edu.au/blog/busting-myths-about-covid-19-herd-immunity-children-and-lives-vs-jobs

Unfortunately the USA has probably squandered the opportunity to take
this approach, so will have to be shunned by the rest of the world for
years while a million or more die in repeated cyclic outbreaks, until an
effective vaccine controls the outbreak. It's a catastrophic failure of
governance.

CH


Crunching the numbers from worldometers.info today,

cases deaths infection rate (ppm)
Europe 470,388 32,636 1,385
EU 399,188 29,132 1,176

USA 200,289 4,394 605

What is the trend? We can get the current and past numbers anwaywhere. Because of the reporting delays and delays in being confirmed, these numbers are up to a week out of date. The latest daily number for the US was back up again after a few days of what looked like a leveling off in the new infection rate.

The site with forecasts seems to show a wide range of peaks, this week in New York and the end of the month in Virginia. Many locations have not put in place stay at home orders. So we may see waves of infection rippling out from the infection centers. That is something you see in Petri dishes. The site of infection grows and the center maxes out and starts to die. The infection radiates out as a growing ring. Eventually a different organism emerges again where the original was dominant and radiates out in the same way. Not that I'm suggesting a different organism will do that here, but we could get reccuring waves of this disease as stay at home orders are removed too early.

We'll see over the coming months.

--

Rick C.

-+-+ Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
-+-+ Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

 

[Rick C]

On Wednesday, April 1, 2020 at 4:22:23 PM UTC-4, dagmarg...@yahoo.com wrote:

On Wednesday, April 1, 2020 at 2:18:20 PM UTC-4, John Larkin wrote:
On Wed, 1 Apr 2020 11:07:16 -0700 (PDT), dagmargoodboat@yahoo.com
wrote:

On Sunday, March 29, 2020 at 11:09:15 PM UTC-4, Clifford Heath wrote:
On 30/3/20 1:18 pm, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Sun, 29 Mar 2020 17:35:35 -0700 (PDT), dagmargoodboat@yahoo.com
wrote:

On Saturday, March 28, 2020 at 12:57:01 PM UTC-4, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Sat, 28 Mar 2020 08:45:11 +0000, Jeff Layman
jmlayman@invalid.invalid> wrote:

On 28/03/20 03:00, Bill Sloman wrote:

But the Covid-19 death numbers are growing exponentially. If James Arthur's 1.24 increase per day persists for 23 days, there will be have been as many Civd-19 deaths in those 23 days as 216k respiratory disease deaths that the US has in a year.

I can understand the general public having little comprehension of what
"exponential" means, but I am surprised that it seems to have been
ignored or misunderstood by those who should know better. Stating
figures about deaths from other causes misses the point entirely; they
are known causes, understood, and changes in the death rate - whether
up, down, or constant, is explicable, linear, and usually minor..

One other point is misunderstood. We talk about treatment by intensive
care and use of ventilators. The problem is those are finite sources,
maybe increasing slightly as time goes on, but the exponential growth of
coronavirus infections will drown those increases. If there are 10000
ventilators today, and 20000 next week, it won't help much if there are
10000 cases of Covid-19 today and 100000 next week.

I understand exponential growth. There would be 1 million the
following week, then 10 million the next week, and 100 billion cases a
month after that. The US will hit 100 billion cases around the end of
April.

100 billion's manageable. In newsmath, those could still be funded
(a million dollars each) from Mike Bloomberg's campaign spending.

The problem happens a month later, when there'll be 8,128.5494322736
times as many cases. California's brilliant governor will need to
find another 19,543 hospital beds.

Cheers,
James

I'm mostly through re-reading Barry's influenza book. The 1918
influenza was immensely worse than this thing. Over 4000 people died
per day in Philadelphia. Europeans seemed to have some immunity, and
some native villages and islands were wiped out entirely; no
survivors.

In any locality, the time from first case to burnout was about 6
weeks, more like 4 weeks at crowded army bases. It grew as a
bell-shaped curve with the tail chopped off, exponential start and a
very abrupt end.

I can, maybe optimistically, imagine that sort of curve in the data
from a lot of countries now. Initial fast growth but now flat or
declining.

There's an exceptionally good presentation of the reasons for the
Australian approach, by someone who "gets" both the biology and the
maths, here:

https://iser.med.unsw.edu.au/blog/busting-myths-about-covid-19-herd-immunity-children-and-lives-vs-jobs

Unfortunately the USA has probably squandered the opportunity to take
this approach, so will have to be shunned by the rest of the world for
years while a million or more die in repeated cyclic outbreaks, until an
effective vaccine controls the outbreak. It's a catastrophic failure of
governance.

CH


Crunching the numbers from worldometers.info today,

cases | deaths | infection rate (ppm)
--------+--------+---------------------
Europe 470,388 | 32,636 | 1,385
EU 399,188 | 29,132 | 1,176
---------------+--------+---------------------
USA 200,289 | 4,394 | 605


Stop annoying people with data.

Sooorrrrrryyyyy.

Clifford's right, it's here, and it's growing. But we didn't
start it.

Perhaps we should've cut off travel from Europe earlier.

No, we learned out lesson after starting the Swine Flu. No more mutant viruses here! We need to install UVC lamps in all airports and make everyone pass through the stripped naked. It won't help the virus situation but I'd enjoy seeing some of the videos.

--

Rick C.

-++- Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
-++- Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

 

[John Larkin]

On Wed, 1 Apr 2020 13:22:15 -0700 (PDT), dagmargoodboat@yahoo.com
wrote:

On Wednesday, April 1, 2020 at 2:18:20 PM UTC-4, John Larkin wrote:
On Wed, 1 Apr 2020 11:07:16 -0700 (PDT), dagmargoodboat@yahoo.com
wrote:

On Sunday, March 29, 2020 at 11:09:15 PM UTC-4, Clifford Heath wrote:
On 30/3/20 1:18 pm, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Sun, 29 Mar 2020 17:35:35 -0700 (PDT), dagmargoodboat@yahoo.com
wrote:

On Saturday, March 28, 2020 at 12:57:01 PM UTC-4, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Sat, 28 Mar 2020 08:45:11 +0000, Jeff Layman
jmlayman@invalid.invalid> wrote:

On 28/03/20 03:00, Bill Sloman wrote:

But the Covid-19 death numbers are growing exponentially. If James Arthur's 1.24 increase per day persists for 23 days, there will be have been as many Civd-19 deaths in those 23 days as 216k respiratory disease deaths that the US has in a year.

I can understand the general public having little comprehension of what
"exponential" means, but I am surprised that it seems to have been
ignored or misunderstood by those who should know better. Stating
figures about deaths from other causes misses the point entirely; they
are known causes, understood, and changes in the death rate - whether
up, down, or constant, is explicable, linear, and usually minor.

One other point is misunderstood. We talk about treatment by intensive
care and use of ventilators. The problem is those are finite sources,
maybe increasing slightly as time goes on, but the exponential growth of
coronavirus infections will drown those increases. If there are 10000
ventilators today, and 20000 next week, it won't help much if there are
10000 cases of Covid-19 today and 100000 next week.

I understand exponential growth. There would be 1 million the
following week, then 10 million the next week, and 100 billion cases a
month after that. The US will hit 100 billion cases around the end of
April.

100 billion's manageable. In newsmath, those could still be funded
(a million dollars each) from Mike Bloomberg's campaign spending.

The problem happens a month later, when there'll be 8,128.5494322736
times as many cases. California's brilliant governor will need to
find another 19,543 hospital beds.

Cheers,
James

I'm mostly through re-reading Barry's influenza book. The 1918
influenza was immensely worse than this thing. Over 4000 people died
per day in Philadelphia. Europeans seemed to have some immunity, and
some native villages and islands were wiped out entirely; no
survivors.

In any locality, the time from first case to burnout was about 6
weeks, more like 4 weeks at crowded army bases. It grew as a
bell-shaped curve with the tail chopped off, exponential start and a
very abrupt end.

I can, maybe optimistically, imagine that sort of curve in the data
from a lot of countries now. Initial fast growth but now flat or
declining.

There's an exceptionally good presentation of the reasons for the
Australian approach, by someone who "gets" both the biology and the
maths, here:

https://iser.med.unsw.edu.au/blog/busting-myths-about-covid-19-herd-immunity-children-and-lives-vs-jobs

Unfortunately the USA has probably squandered the opportunity to take
this approach, so will have to be shunned by the rest of the world for
years while a million or more die in repeated cyclic outbreaks, until an
effective vaccine controls the outbreak. It's a catastrophic failure of
governance.

CH


Crunching the numbers from worldometers.info today,

cases | deaths | infection rate (ppm)
--------+--------+---------------------
Europe 470,388 | 32,636 | 1,385
EU 399,188 | 29,132 | 1,176
---------------+--------+---------------------
USA 200,289 | 4,394 | 605


Stop annoying people with data.

Sooorrrrrryyyyy.

Clifford's right, it's here, and it's growing. But we didn't
start it.

Perhaps we should've cut off travel from Europe earlier.

Cheers,
James

The US and Canada are lagging europe by a couple of weeks. Maybe a
bunch of Chinese tourists seeded Italy early on.

You can't isolate an entire country. Everyplace but some small towns
and islands will get seeded sooner or later. Isolation just changes
the start date of the epidemic.

The data is still noisy and unreliable, but a 5-week hump looks about
right.

The press, even people who should know better, first showed pure
exponential growth (and told us we were too dumb to understand
exponentials) and are now drawing pure Gaussian impulses, or even
Gaussians with extended tails.

One expert on the radio this morning assured us that growth was
exponential AND that we will have two megadeath peaks.

Have you seen this one?

https://www.euromomo.eu/index.html

So far, it looks like a good year to be a grandparent.


--

John Larkin Highland Technology, Inc
picosecond timing precision measurement

jlarkin att highlandtechnology dott com
http://www.highlandtechnology.com

 

On Wednesday, April 1, 2020 at 5:41:41 PM UTC-4, John Larkin wrote:

On Wed, 1 Apr 2020 13:22:15 -0700 (PDT), dagmargoodboat@yahoo.com
wrote:

On Wednesday, April 1, 2020 at 2:18:20 PM UTC-4, John Larkin wrote:
On Wed, 1 Apr 2020 11:07:16 -0700 (PDT), dagmargoodboat@yahoo.com
wrote:

Crunching the numbers from worldometers.info today,

cases | deaths | infection rate (ppm)
--------+--------+---------------------
Europe 470,388 | 32,636 | 1,385
EU 399,188 | 29,132 | 1,176
---------------+--------+---------------------
USA 200,289 | 4,394 | 605


Stop annoying people with data.

Sooorrrrrryyyyy.

Clifford's right, it's here, and it's growing. But we didn't
start it.

Perhaps we should've cut off travel from Europe earlier.

The US and Canada are lagging europe by a couple of weeks. Maybe a
bunch of Chinese tourists seeded Italy early on.

You can't isolate an entire country. Everyplace but some small towns
and islands will get seeded sooner or later. Isolation just changes
the start date of the epidemic.

The data is still noisy and unreliable, but a 5-week hump looks about
right.

The press, even people who should know better, first showed pure
exponential growth (and told us we were too dumb to understand
exponentials) and are now drawing pure Gaussian impulses, or even
Gaussians with extended tails.

One expert on the radio this morning assured us that growth was
exponential AND that we will have two megadeath peaks.

Have you seen this one?

https://www.euromomo.eu/index.html

This site has superlative graphs of the things that matter,
growth rates, total, & per capita stats.
https://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/

> So far, it looks like a good year to be a grandparent.

Europe's winter of 2016 was awfully rough on old folks. I blame
Obama. But now it's a lot better -- I credit global warming.
<ducks>



Cheers,
James

 

On Wed, 1 Apr 2020 16:05:51 -0700 (PDT), dagmargoodboat@yahoo.com
wrote:

On Wednesday, April 1, 2020 at 5:41:41 PM UTC-4, John Larkin wrote:
On Wed, 1 Apr 2020 13:22:15 -0700 (PDT), dagmargoodboat@yahoo.com
wrote:

On Wednesday, April 1, 2020 at 2:18:20 PM UTC-4, John Larkin wrote:
On Wed, 1 Apr 2020 11:07:16 -0700 (PDT), dagmargoodboat@yahoo.com
wrote:

Crunching the numbers from worldometers.info today,

cases | deaths | infection rate (ppm)
--------+--------+---------------------
Europe 470,388 | 32,636 | 1,385
EU 399,188 | 29,132 | 1,176
---------------+--------+---------------------
USA 200,289 | 4,394 | 605


Stop annoying people with data.

Sooorrrrrryyyyy.

Clifford's right, it's here, and it's growing. But we didn't
start it.

Perhaps we should've cut off travel from Europe earlier.

The US and Canada are lagging europe by a couple of weeks. Maybe a
bunch of Chinese tourists seeded Italy early on.

You can't isolate an entire country. Everyplace but some small towns
and islands will get seeded sooner or later. Isolation just changes
the start date of the epidemic.

The data is still noisy and unreliable, but a 5-week hump looks about
right.

The press, even people who should know better, first showed pure
exponential growth (and told us we were too dumb to understand
exponentials) and are now drawing pure Gaussian impulses, or even
Gaussians with extended tails.

One expert on the radio this morning assured us that growth was
exponential AND that we will have two megadeath peaks.

Have you seen this one?

https://www.euromomo.eu/index.html

This site has superlative graphs of the things that matter,
growth rates, total, & per capita stats.
https://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/

So far, it looks like a good year to be a grandparent.

Europe's winter of 2016 was awfully rough on old folks. I blame
Obama. But now it's a lot better -- I credit global warming.
ducks



Cheers,
James

The world total new cases spiked up yesterday. But the new cases of
many countries spiked yesterday, including the US, on the last day of
the month. Strange.



--

John Larkin Highland Technology, Inc

Science teaches us to doubt.

Claude Bernard

 

[Bill Sloman]

On Thursday, April 2, 2020 at 8:41:41 AM UTC+11, John Larkin wrote:

On Wed, 1 Apr 2020 13:22:15 -0700 (PDT), dagmargoodboat@yahoo.com
wrote:

On Wednesday, April 1, 2020 at 2:18:20 PM UTC-4, John Larkin wrote:
On Wed, 1 Apr 2020 11:07:16 -0700 (PDT), dagmargoodboat@yahoo.com
wrote:

On Sunday, March 29, 2020 at 11:09:15 PM UTC-4, Clifford Heath wrote:
On 30/3/20 1:18 pm, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Sun, 29 Mar 2020 17:35:35 -0700 (PDT), dagmargoodboat@yahoo.com
wrote:

On Saturday, March 28, 2020 at 12:57:01 PM UTC-4, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Sat, 28 Mar 2020 08:45:11 +0000, Jeff Layman
jmlayman@invalid.invalid> wrote:

On 28/03/20 03:00, Bill Sloman wrote:

<snip>

The US and Canada are lagging europe by a couple of weeks. Maybe a
bunch of Chinese tourists seeded Italy early on.

Some have speculated that the close links between the Italian fashion design centres and the Chinese fashion production industry might have had something to do with it.

> You can't isolate an entire country.

China has illustrated that you can get close enough.

> Everyplace but some small towns and islands will get seeded sooner or later. Isolation just changes the start date of the epidemic.

Isolation - properly done - reduces the RO in the self-isolating community below one. No epidemic.

The data is still noisy and unreliable, but a 5-week hump looks about
right.

For communities that manage to get R0 well below 1.

The press, even people who should know better, first showed pure
exponential growth (and told us we were too dumb to understand
exponentials) and are now drawing pure Gaussian impulses, or even
Gaussians with extended tails.

There's a lot of software around that makes it easy to do that.

One expert on the radio this morning assured us that growth was
exponential AND that we will have two megadeath peaks.

If the US screws up containment badly enough to get the infection rate up to 60% you will end up with 190 million case. With a 1% mortality rate, that would be 1.9 million deaths. Since your hospitals are already overloaded in lots of place, it would probably go higher.

With 60% of the population immune, R0 would be below one, and that would end the epidemic. Not a great strategy, but it doesn't look as if you have the compentence to do better.

Have you seen this one?

https://www.euromomo.eu/index.html

So far, it looks like a good year to be a grandparent.

As they fall past the second floor.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney