When is the Covid war over?

jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote in
news:dv1g8fh5ft7bbeuu92h6cq5d4ettt2ekf9@4ax.com:

On Fri, 3 Apr 2020 17:42:05 -0700 (PDT), whit3rd
whit3rd@gmail.com> wrote:

On Friday, April 3, 2020 at 5:00:42 PM UTC-7, John Larkin wrote:

The Princess cruise ships were captive petri dishes, with a lot
of old people on board.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diamond_Princess_ship#2020_COVID-19

Those numbers are probably worse than you'd get in a more normal
city situation.

Again, you use 'probably' without any calculation, or even
estimate, of probability. By watching the boat for a couple of
weeks, then testing everybody, you can tell how the exponential
curve of infection in that (unusual) situation, with aware persons
trying not to contaminate each other, intersected the timeline at
14 days. That's not much info.

It wasn't a petri dish (those are round, glass, with lids). A
'more normal city' cannot be the description of a city in
lockdown, so why mention it at all? If you want to make
assumptions and draw conclusions, you have to express your
assumptions and support the conclusions, a metaphor with glass
dishes is inadequate.

You are frightened, so you can't objectively look at the available
numbers. Fear most often trumps reason.

_ ^^^^^
This fucking TrumpTainted retard just cannot help himself.

Donald John Trump is guilty of homicide by negligence.
So are the governors that followed his extremely dangerous missteps.

 

On Fri, 3 Apr 2020 17:42:05 -0700 (PDT), whit3rd <whit3rd@gmail.com>
wrote:

On Friday, April 3, 2020 at 5:00:42 PM UTC-7, John Larkin wrote:

The Princess cruise ships were captive petri dishes, with a lot of old
people on board.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diamond_Princess_ship#2020_COVID-19

Those numbers are probably worse than you'd get in a more normal city
situation.

Again, you use 'probably' without any calculation, or even estimate, of
probability. By watching the boat for a couple of weeks, then testing everybody,
you can tell how the exponential curve of infection in that (unusual) situation,
with aware persons trying not to contaminate each other, intersected
the timeline at 14 days. That's not much info.

It wasn't a petri dish (those are round, glass, with lids). A 'more normal city'
cannot be the description of a city in lockdown, so why mention it at all?
If you want to make assumptions and draw conclusions, you have to
express your assumptions and support the conclusions, a metaphor with
glass dishes is inadequate.

You are frightened, so you can't objectively look at the available
numbers. Fear most often trumps reason.





--

John Larkin Highland Technology, Inc

Science teaches us to doubt.

Claude Bernard

 

[Bill Sloman]

On Saturday, April 4, 2020 at 3:09:17 PM UTC+11, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:

On Fri, 3 Apr 2020 17:42:05 -0700 (PDT), whit3rd <whit3rd@gmail.com
wrote:

On Friday, April 3, 2020 at 5:00:42 PM UTC-7, John Larkin wrote:

The Princess cruise ships were captive petri dishes, with a lot of old
people on board.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diamond_Princess_ship#2020_COVID-19

Those numbers are probably worse than you'd get in a more normal city
situation.

Again, you use 'probably' without any calculation, or even estimate, of
probability. By watching the boat for a couple of weeks, then testing everybody,
you can tell how the exponential curve of infection in that (unusual) situation,
with aware persons trying not to contaminate each other, intersected
the timeline at 14 days. That's not much info.

It wasn't a petri dish (those are round, glass, with lids). A 'more normal city'
cannot be the description of a city in lockdown, so why mention it at all?
If you want to make assumptions and draw conclusions, you have to
express your assumptions and support the conclusions, a metaphor with
glass dishes is inadequate.

You are frightened, so you can't objectively look at the available
numbers. Fear most often trumps reason.

I wonder why John Larkin thinks that, or pretends to.

He's not creative in his choice of insulting language, and claiming that other people are 'fraidy cats is what kids do in primary school.

It's easier than constructing logical arguments.

--
bill Sloman, Sydney

 

[whit3rd]

On Friday, April 3, 2020 at 9:09:17 PM UTC-7, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:

You are frightened, so you can't objectively look at the available
numbers. Fear most often trumps reason.

Arrogant dismissal again. My mood is no concern of yours, so your
mistakes regarding it are not worth addressing. Big plague going on,
a life-threatening situation calls for addressing the real issues.

 

[Phil Hobbs]

On 2020-04-03 20:00, John Larkin wrote:

On Fri, 3 Apr 2020 16:40:42 -0700 (PDT), whit3rd <whit3rd@gmail.com
wrote:

On Friday, April 3, 2020 at 12:26:33 PM UTC-7, Commander Kinsey wrote:
On Fri, 03 Apr 2020 02:00:21 +0100, whit3rd <whit3rd@gmail.com> wrote:

On Thursday, April 2, 2020 at 11:12:05 AM UTC-7, John Larkin wrote:

The lockdowns are trashing the economy, which hurts people, and are
probably not going to save many lives.

This displays no grasp at all of the concept of 'probability'. Show us a credible
model that gives a quantitative result other than 'many' lives in the balance.

We know 96% of us can't die from it, that's good enough.

False assurance.
That was the result with an intact healthcare system, well supplied and operating
within its limits. One municipality's turnaround is not data to match a crisis overwhelming national
resources (Spain, Italy aren't finished with their reports).

And, false acceptable level of risk.
And, if 4% of us die this year (it does spread fast enough to cover the planet under one year)
that makes the effective life expectancy 25 years... it's a bigger danger to you, personally,
than other diseases. It's bigger, in fact, than ALL OTHER causes of death put together.
If you have a brain and a heart, that should raise your pulse rate.

The Princess cruise ships were captive petri dishes, with a lot of old
people on board.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diamond_Princess_ship#2020_COVID-19

Those numbers are probably worse than you'd get in a more normal city
situation.

Yeah, looking for the Diamond Princess and Grand Princess to be quietly
renamed a few months from now.

Mo and I like cruises--her idea of a vacation is going places and seeing
things, whereas mine is plunking someplace warm within sight of the
ocean and reading a book.

Cruises aren't perfect (especially in a pandemic) but they do manage to
combine our ideal vacations pretty well.

Cheers

Phil Hobbs

--
Dr Philip C D Hobbs
Principal Consultant
ElectroOptical Innovations LLC / Hobbs ElectroOptics
Optics, Electro-optics, Photonics, Analog Electronics
Briarcliff Manor NY 10510

http://electrooptical.net
http://hobbs-eo.com

 

On Sat, 4 Apr 2020 03:08:10 -0400, Phil Hobbs
<pcdhSpamMeSenseless@electrooptical.net> wrote:

On 2020-04-03 20:00, John Larkin wrote:
On Fri, 3 Apr 2020 16:40:42 -0700 (PDT), whit3rd <whit3rd@gmail.com
wrote:

On Friday, April 3, 2020 at 12:26:33 PM UTC-7, Commander Kinsey wrote:
On Fri, 03 Apr 2020 02:00:21 +0100, whit3rd <whit3rd@gmail.com> wrote:

On Thursday, April 2, 2020 at 11:12:05 AM UTC-7, John Larkin wrote:

The lockdowns are trashing the economy, which hurts people, and are
probably not going to save many lives.

This displays no grasp at all of the concept of 'probability'. Show us a credible
model that gives a quantitative result other than 'many' lives in the balance.

We know 96% of us can't die from it, that's good enough.

False assurance.
That was the result with an intact healthcare system, well supplied and operating
within its limits. One municipality's turnaround is not data to match a crisis overwhelming national
resources (Spain, Italy aren't finished with their reports).

And, false acceptable level of risk.
And, if 4% of us die this year (it does spread fast enough to cover the planet under one year)
that makes the effective life expectancy 25 years... it's a bigger danger to you, personally,
than other diseases. It's bigger, in fact, than ALL OTHER causes of death put together.
If you have a brain and a heart, that should raise your pulse rate.

The Princess cruise ships were captive petri dishes, with a lot of old
people on board.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diamond_Princess_ship#2020_COVID-19

Those numbers are probably worse than you'd get in a more normal city
situation.

Yeah, looking for the Diamond Princess and Grand Princess to be quietly
renamed a few months from now.

The one we can see from our kitchen window is the Corona Princess.

https://www.dropbox.com/s/5kklq79a7yb6j89/Corona_Princess_Binocs.jpg?dl=0

Mo and I like cruises--her idea of a vacation is going places and seeing
things, whereas mine is plunking someplace warm within sight of the
ocean and reading a book.

Cruises aren't perfect (especially in a pandemic) but they do manage to
combine our ideal vacations pretty well.

Cheers

Phil Hobbs

I mostly hate to travel - I can read a book at home - so my Mo travels
with some girl friends. All the more reason for me to stay at home.



--

John Larkin Highland Technology, Inc

Science teaches us to doubt.

Claude Bernard

 

[Ricky C]

On Saturday, April 4, 2020 at 2:09:57 PM UTC-4, Commander Kinsey wrote:

I would never go to a hospital for anything other than a broken bone. They're fucking useless at curing anything, and chances are you'll catch something else.

Once this disease gets rolling, you won't have much choice but to avoid hospitals. There won't be a bed for you.


> And people should pay to go to hospital, that would sort out the overcrowding. In times of a pandemic, just shove the entry fee up a bit. Supply and demand innit?

Indeed. Then instead of the death rate being a factor of age it will be a factor of wealth. Yup, very Amurican.

--

Rick C.

---+- Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
---+- Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

 

[Commander Kinsey]

On Thu, 02 Apr 2020 23:55:29 +0100, Ricky C <gnuarm.deletethisbit@gmail.com> wrote:

On Thursday, April 2, 2020 at 6:34:06 PM UTC-4, Commander Kinsey wrote:
On Thu, 02 Apr 2020 20:28:32 +0100, Rick C <gnuarm.deletethisbit@gmail.com> wrote:

On Thursday, April 2, 2020 at 11:50:10 AM UTC-4, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Thu, 02 Apr 2020 16:22:20 +0100, "Commander Kinsey"
CFKinsey@military.org.jp> wrote:

On Thu, 02 Apr 2020 16:18:04 +0100, <jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com> wrote:

On Thu, 02 Apr 2020 15:51:38 +0100, "Commander Kinsey"
CFKinsey@military.org.jp> wrote:

On Mon, 30 Mar 2020 15:50:10 +0100, <jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com> wrote:

On Mon, 30 Mar 2020 09:43:12 +0100, Martin Brown
'''newspam'''@nezumi.demon.co.uk> wrote:

On 28/03/2020 02:41, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Sat, 28 Mar 2020 01:27:07 +0000, Tom Gardner
spamjunk@blueyonder.co.uk> wrote:

On 27/03/20 22:38, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
About 2.8 million people die in the US every year. 216K of those are
considered to be upper respiratory or flu/pneumonia. C19 has
officially killed 1544 so far.

The key phrase there is "so far".


US dailies are down slightly from yesterday, but the data is so noisy
that it will take a week or a month to really spot a trend. Some
european countries seem to have peaked. Different countries, even
neighbors, have very different patterns. There must be a lot of bad
data going around.

The only European country that might perhaps be close to peaking is
Italy but their health system is now so close to collapse that they are
airlifting some critical patients to German hospitals for ICU.

UK is expected to peak in May or June if the social distancing measures
are effective. Death rate peaks about two weeks after the daily
infection count reaches its highest point (typical residence time in
ICU). Fatalities will be much higher if ICU capacity is inadequate.

One thing you really should be worried by is that the US growth curve is
running ahead of Italy at the corresponding position. This is rather
surprising given that we know the sorts of things you should not do.

http://nrg.cs.ucl.ac.uk/mjh/covid19/#wn

That's the integral of cases, but the slopes are all declining.


Doubling time in the UK, Italy and Spain is presently 3 days. In the USA
it is 2 days and in Japan it is presently 8 days (though unclear how
much longer they can hold that line without taking further measures).

This site

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

has good graphs, but is's getting too popular/slow lately.

It doesn't matter how many catch it, we know that 4% of people who get it die.

Probably not. It might kill 4% of the people who were already sick and
are in hospitals with respiratory problems, and who have tested
positive for this virus. We don't know how many have been infected.
Maybe 2x, maybe 200x the official count.

It kills almost everybody in hospitals, as they're the ones that are most vulnerable to it.

Absolutely untrue, even among old people. Look it up.

I very much doubt we have the count of infections out by much. Why would we?

Because we only test people who are very sick and seem to have it. We
don't know how many have it and ignore it, or how many had it before
tests were available.

What we have a lot of is fear, panic, press, politics, and bad data.

You forgot two things. We also have disease and death. Larkin doesn't care about other people's pain and suffering. There are lots of ways to die, but this is one of the worst, not being able to catch your breath. No, it's not how I want to go out.

Then stay at home, by your own choice. But don't expect everyone else to be a pussy for a 4% chance.

I really don't care if you get sick. Just don't come to a hospital if you do. Then we all will show the courage of our convictions.

I would never go to a hospital for anything other than a broken bone. They're fucking useless at curing anything, and chances are you'll catch something else.

And people should pay to go to hospital, that would sort out the overcrowding. In times of a pandemic, just shove the entry fee up a bit. Supply and demand innit?

--
This email has been checked for viruses by AVG.
https://www.avg.com

 

[Commander Kinsey]

On Fri, 03 Apr 2020 02:48:14 +0100, Bill Sloman <bill.sloman@ieee.org> wrote:

On Friday, April 3, 2020 at 1:51:42 AM UTC+11, Commander Kinsey wrote:
On Mon, 30 Mar 2020 15:50:10 +0100, <jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com> wrote:

On Mon, 30 Mar 2020 09:43:12 +0100, Martin Brown
'''newspam'''@nezumi.demon.co.uk> wrote:

On 28/03/2020 02:41, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Sat, 28 Mar 2020 01:27:07 +0000, Tom Gardner
spamjunk@blueyonder.co.uk> wrote:

On 27/03/20 22:38, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
About 2.8 million people die in the US every year. 216K of those are
considered to be upper respiratory or flu/pneumonia. C19 has
officially killed 1544 so far.

The key phrase there is "so far".


US dailies are down slightly from yesterday, but the data is so noisy
that it will take a week or a month to really spot a trend. Some
european countries seem to have peaked. Different countries, even
neighbors, have very different patterns. There must be a lot of bad
data going around.

The only European country that might perhaps be close to peaking is
Italy but their health system is now so close to collapse that they are
airlifting some critical patients to German hospitals for ICU.

UK is expected to peak in May or June if the social distancing measures
are effective. Death rate peaks about two weeks after the daily
infection count reaches its highest point (typical residence time in
ICU). Fatalities will be much higher if ICU capacity is inadequate.

One thing you really should be worried by is that the US growth curve is
running ahead of Italy at the corresponding position. This is rather
surprising given that we know the sorts of things you should not do.

http://nrg.cs.ucl.ac.uk/mjh/covid19/#wn

That's the integral of cases, but the slopes are all declining.

Doubling time in the UK, Italy and Spain is presently 3 days. In the USA
it is 2 days and in Japan it is presently 8 days (though unclear how
much longer they can hold that line without taking further measures).

This site

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

has good graphs, but it's getting too popular/slow lately.

It doesn't matter how many catch it,

It matters a lot to the people who do catch it.

Once you've caught it, you don't care how likely you were to catch it, only how likely you are to die.

we know that 4% of people who get it die.

We don't.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/

That says only 3.4%!

> More important, you chance of dying from it increases with your age.

Precisely, so old people stay indoors, young people get on with life, and stop fucking up the world with nobody working.

So the absolute maximum death toll is 4% of the world. That's far preferable to the stupid over the top government restrictions which will see the world economy collapse and countless business go bankrupt.

If the restrictions are done right, relatively few people will get it, and only some of them will die.

But the rest of us have to suffer the next decade with everything bankrupt and collossal inflation and taxes.

> As China and South Korea illustrate, if you put the restrictions in place early enough you can stop new domestic cases, and keep new infections coming in from overseas from starting new epidemics, at which point you don't need the restrictions any more - South Korea never actually went into lock-down - and can get back to making money.

So you'd enjoy being a prisoner in your own home? Nothing will make me stay indoors.

Why not just lock in the vulnerable (elderly etc) people and let everyone else just have a week's sick days off work if they happen to catch it? Because that's all most people get, 7 days of lying in bed.

Because you don't know that they've caught it until they become symptomatic, and they can infect other people (usually two or three, but they can do better in large gatherings).

But they'll only affect the people who aren't vulnerable, as the elderly are indoors!

--
This email has been checked for viruses by AVG.
https://www.avg.com

 

[Ricky C]

On Saturday, April 4, 2020 at 4:10:34 PM UTC-4, Commander Kinsey wrote:

On Fri, 03 Apr 2020 02:48:14 +0100, Bill Sloman <bill.sloman@ieee.org> wrote:

On Friday, April 3, 2020 at 1:51:42 AM UTC+11, Commander Kinsey wrote:
On Mon, 30 Mar 2020 15:50:10 +0100, <jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com> wrote:

On Mon, 30 Mar 2020 09:43:12 +0100, Martin Brown
'''newspam'''@nezumi.demon.co.uk> wrote:

On 28/03/2020 02:41, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Sat, 28 Mar 2020 01:27:07 +0000, Tom Gardner
spamjunk@blueyonder.co.uk> wrote:

On 27/03/20 22:38, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
About 2.8 million people die in the US every year. 216K of those are
considered to be upper respiratory or flu/pneumonia. C19 has
officially killed 1544 so far.

The key phrase there is "so far".


US dailies are down slightly from yesterday, but the data is so noisy
that it will take a week or a month to really spot a trend. Some
european countries seem to have peaked. Different countries, even
neighbors, have very different patterns. There must be a lot of bad
data going around.

The only European country that might perhaps be close to peaking is
Italy but their health system is now so close to collapse that they are
airlifting some critical patients to German hospitals for ICU.

UK is expected to peak in May or June if the social distancing measures
are effective. Death rate peaks about two weeks after the daily
infection count reaches its highest point (typical residence time in
ICU). Fatalities will be much higher if ICU capacity is inadequate.

One thing you really should be worried by is that the US growth curve is
running ahead of Italy at the corresponding position. This is rather
surprising given that we know the sorts of things you should not do..

http://nrg.cs.ucl.ac.uk/mjh/covid19/#wn

That's the integral of cases, but the slopes are all declining.

Doubling time in the UK, Italy and Spain is presently 3 days. In the USA
it is 2 days and in Japan it is presently 8 days (though unclear how
much longer they can hold that line without taking further measures).

This site

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

has good graphs, but it's getting too popular/slow lately.

It doesn't matter how many catch it,

It matters a lot to the people who do catch it.

Once you've caught it, you don't care how likely you were to catch it, only how likely you are to die.

Sir, you have an amazing grasp of the obvious.

we know that 4% of people who get it die.

We don't.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/

That says only 3.4%!

It's also not a true death rate. The death rate is not a useful number because we don't really know how many people have caught the disease. But none of that is very relevant. The disease is not one anyone should take likely because it kills, maims and injures people who catch it and some who don't because of the competition for medical resources... by the thousands and probably millions.

More important, you chance of dying from it increases with your age.

Precisely, so old people stay indoors, young people get on with life, and stop fucking up the world with nobody working.

So if your chance of dying in a car accident is lower, then we make you do all the driving??? Ok, I need stuff at the store. Are you going out to get it?

So the absolute maximum death toll is 4% of the world. That's far preferable to the stupid over the top government restrictions which will see the world economy collapse and countless business go bankrupt.

If the restrictions are done right, relatively few people will get it, and only some of them will die.

But the rest of us have to suffer the next decade with everything bankrupt and collossal inflation and taxes.

I like the way you say, "the rest of us" as if you were immune to the disease. The intelligent people of the world are doing you a favor and aren't even charging you for it. You are welcome.

As China and South Korea illustrate, if you put the restrictions in place early enough you can stop new domestic cases, and keep new infections coming in from overseas from starting new epidemics, at which point you don't need the restrictions any more - South Korea never actually went into lock-down - and can get back to making money.

So you'd enjoy being a prisoner in your own home? Nothing will make me stay indoors.

No one said you had to stay indoors. You just can't mingle with the masses other than essential trips. Go out, enjoy, it's a nice day!

Why not just lock in the vulnerable (elderly etc) people and let everyone else just have a week's sick days off work if they happen to catch it? Because that's all most people get, 7 days of lying in bed.

Because you don't know that they've caught it until they become symptomatic, and they can infect other people (usually two or three, but they can do better in large gatherings).

But they'll only affect the people who aren't vulnerable, as the elderly are indoors!

Wow, you keep equating "more vulnerable" and "less vulnerable" with "vulnerable" and "not vulnerable". Tain't so!

--

Rick C.

---++ Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
---++ Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

 

[Commander Kinsey]

On Fri, 03 Apr 2020 02:51:38 +0100, Bill Sloman <bill.sloman@ieee.org> wrote:

On Friday, April 3, 2020 at 2:01:48 AM UTC+11, Commander Kinsey wrote:
On Thu, 02 Apr 2020 15:59:31 +0100, <edward.ming.lee@gmail.com> wrote:

On Thursday, April 2, 2020 at 7:51:42 AM UTC-7, Commander Kinsey wrote:
On Mon, 30 Mar 2020 15:50:10 +0100, <jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com> wrote:

On Mon, 30 Mar 2020 09:43:12 +0100, Martin Brown
'''newspam'''@nezumi.demon.co.uk> wrote:

snip

Yes, sir:

4% to 6% die, but 20% to 30% get diminished lung capacities due to tissue damages. I think we should avoid it and control the damages.

It's just a bad flu, stop being such a sissy.

It's an order of magnitude worse that flu. Stop being a half-wit.

Actually it's only 4 times worse. And stop being a sissy.

If you want to avoid it, nobody is stopping you. But closing half the world down is causing way more problems.

It's causing lots of problems. But lots of dead and damaged people present problems too.

It's causing very few problems. The lockdown is causing an order of magnitude more problems.

--
This email has been checked for viruses by AVG.
https://www.avg.com

 

[whit3rd]

On Saturday, April 4, 2020 at 3:08:56 PM UTC-7, Commander Kinsey wrote:

> It's causing very few problems. The lockdown is causing an order of magnitude more problems.

Well, DUH. The worldwide cases are about a million, so under 0.1% of the population,
and the lockdown is the way we keep it from become 50%. The CORRECT way to
deal with a problem like this is to keep the case count low until a vaccine is available,
or some other (reliable, convenient) treatment can be given on an outpatient basis.

The lockdown, at only one order of magnitude, is the better solution when
a non-lockdown quickly grows the problem two or three orders of magnitude.

 

[Bill Sloman]

On Sunday, April 5, 2020 at 8:08:56 AM UTC+10, Commander Kinsey wrote:

On Fri, 03 Apr 2020 02:51:38 +0100, Bill Sloman <bill.sloman@ieee.org> wrote:

On Friday, April 3, 2020 at 2:01:48 AM UTC+11, Commander Kinsey wrote:
On Thu, 02 Apr 2020 15:59:31 +0100, <edward.ming.lee@gmail.com> wrote:

On Thursday, April 2, 2020 at 7:51:42 AM UTC-7, Commander Kinsey wrote:
On Mon, 30 Mar 2020 15:50:10 +0100, <jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology..com> wrote:

On Mon, 30 Mar 2020 09:43:12 +0100, Martin Brown
'''newspam'''@nezumi.demon.co.uk> wrote:

snip

Yes, sir:

4% to 6% die, but 20% to 30% get diminished lung capacities due to tissue damages. I think we should avoid it and control the damages.

It's just a bad flu, stop being such a sissy.

It's an order of magnitude worse that flu. Stop being a half-wit.

Actually it's only 4 times worse. And stop being a sissy.

The mortality rate from seasonal flu is about 0.1%, so on your 3.4% mortality rate it's 34 times worse.

In reality flu doesn't give you pneumonia, and what kills you is some other respiratory infection that takes advantage of the fact taht your lungs have been weakened. Covid-19 can do it all on its own.

If you want to avoid it, nobody is stopping you. But closing half the world down is causing way more problems.

It's causing lots of problems. But lots of dead and damaged people present problems too.

It's causing very few problems. The lockdown is causing an order of magnitude more problems.

The disease has caused very few problems so far because it hasn't infected all that many people so far. The lock-downs haven't all been as effective as they were in China, but they are slowing down the spread, and as they get more effective we can expect to get to the Chinese and Korean situations where there aren't any infected people around to infect their neighbours.

People coming home from overseas infected are still a problem, but a managable one.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

 

[Bill Sloman]

On Sunday, April 5, 2020 at 6:10:34 AM UTC+10, Commander Kinsey wrote:

On Fri, 03 Apr 2020 02:48:14 +0100, Bill Sloman <bill.sloman@ieee.org> wrote:

On Friday, April 3, 2020 at 1:51:42 AM UTC+11, Commander Kinsey wrote:
On Mon, 30 Mar 2020 15:50:10 +0100, <jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com> wrote:

On Mon, 30 Mar 2020 09:43:12 +0100, Martin Brown
'''newspam'''@nezumi.demon.co.uk> wrote:

On 28/03/2020 02:41, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Sat, 28 Mar 2020 01:27:07 +0000, Tom Gardner
spamjunk@blueyonder.co.uk> wrote:

On 27/03/20 22:38, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
About 2.8 million people die in the US every year. 216K of those are
considered to be upper respiratory or flu/pneumonia. C19 has
officially killed 1544 so far.

The key phrase there is "so far".


US dailies are down slightly from yesterday, but the data is so noisy
that it will take a week or a month to really spot a trend. Some
european countries seem to have peaked. Different countries, even
neighbors, have very different patterns. There must be a lot of bad
data going around.

The only European country that might perhaps be close to peaking is
Italy but their health system is now so close to collapse that they are
airlifting some critical patients to German hospitals for ICU.

UK is expected to peak in May or June if the social distancing measures
are effective. Death rate peaks about two weeks after the daily
infection count reaches its highest point (typical residence time in
ICU). Fatalities will be much higher if ICU capacity is inadequate.

One thing you really should be worried by is that the US growth curve is
running ahead of Italy at the corresponding position. This is rather
surprising given that we know the sorts of things you should not do..

http://nrg.cs.ucl.ac.uk/mjh/covid19/#wn

That's the integral of cases, but the slopes are all declining.

Doubling time in the UK, Italy and Spain is presently 3 days. In the USA
it is 2 days and in Japan it is presently 8 days (though unclear how
much longer they can hold that line without taking further measures).

This site

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

has good graphs, but it's getting too popular/slow lately.

It doesn't matter how many catch it,

It matters a lot to the people who do catch it.

Once you've caught it, you don't care how likely you were to catch it, only how likely you are to die.

we know that 4% of people who get it die.

We don't.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/

That says only 3.4%!

Depending on age, which is to say it varies with the age distribution of the population getting infected.

More important, you chance of dying from it increases with your age.

Precisely, so old people stay indoors, young people get on with life, and stop fucking up the world with nobody working.

So the absolute maximum death toll is 4% of the world. That's far preferable to the stupid over the top government restrictions which will see the world economy collapse and countless business go bankrupt.

If the restrictions are done right, relatively few people will get it, and only some of them will die.

But the rest of us have to suffer the next decade with everything bankrupt and collossal inflation and taxes.

Your ignorance about economics seems to be just a great as your ignorance about medicine.

As China and South Korea illustrate, if you put the restrictions in place early enough you can stop new domestic cases, and keep new infections coming in from overseas from starting new epidemics, at which point you don't need the restrictions any more - South Korea never actually went into lock-down - and can get back to making money.

So you'd enjoy being a prisoner in your own home? Nothing will make me stay indoors.

You don't have to stay indoors. You just have to stay at least 1.5 metres away for other people when you are outdoors.

Why not just lock in the vulnerable (elderly etc) people and let everyone else just have a week's sick days off work if they happen to catch it? Because that's all most people get, 7 days of lying in bed.

Because you don't know that they've caught it until they become symptomatic, and they can infect other people (usually two or three, but they can do better in large gatherings).

But they'll only affect the people who aren't vulnerable, as the elderly are indoors!

Everybody is vulnerable. About 20% of the people who catch it seem to end up seriously or critically, and some of them die. More if they are over 70 or have pre-existing conditions.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

 

[Bill Sloman]

On Sunday, April 5, 2020 at 4:09:57 AM UTC+10, Commander Kinsey wrote:

On Thu, 02 Apr 2020 23:55:29 +0100, Ricky C <gnuarm.deletethisbit@gmail.com> wrote:

On Thursday, April 2, 2020 at 6:34:06 PM UTC-4, Commander Kinsey wrote:
On Thu, 02 Apr 2020 20:28:32 +0100, Rick C <gnuarm.deletethisbit@gmail..com> wrote:

On Thursday, April 2, 2020 at 11:50:10 AM UTC-4, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Thu, 02 Apr 2020 16:22:20 +0100, "Commander Kinsey"
CFKinsey@military.org.jp> wrote:

On Thu, 02 Apr 2020 16:18:04 +0100, <jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com> wrote:

On Thu, 02 Apr 2020 15:51:38 +0100, "Commander Kinsey"
CFKinsey@military.org.jp> wrote:

On Mon, 30 Mar 2020 15:50:10 +0100, <jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com> wrote:

On Mon, 30 Mar 2020 09:43:12 +0100, Martin Brown
'''newspam'''@nezumi.demon.co.uk> wrote:

On 28/03/2020 02:41, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Sat, 28 Mar 2020 01:27:07 +0000, Tom Gardner
spamjunk@blueyonder.co.uk> wrote:

On 27/03/20 22:38, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
About 2.8 million people die in the US every year. 216K of those are
considered to be upper respiratory or flu/pneumonia. C19 has
officially killed 1544 so far.

The key phrase there is "so far".


US dailies are down slightly from yesterday, but the data is so noisy
that it will take a week or a month to really spot a trend. Some
european countries seem to have peaked. Different countries, even
neighbors, have very different patterns. There must be a lot of bad
data going around.

The only European country that might perhaps be close to peaking is
Italy but their health system is now so close to collapse that they are
airlifting some critical patients to German hospitals for ICU..

UK is expected to peak in May or June if the social distancing measures
are effective. Death rate peaks about two weeks after the daily
infection count reaches its highest point (typical residence time in
ICU). Fatalities will be much higher if ICU capacity is inadequate.

One thing you really should be worried by is that the US growth curve is
running ahead of Italy at the corresponding position. This is rather
surprising given that we know the sorts of things you should not do.

http://nrg.cs.ucl.ac.uk/mjh/covid19/#wn

That's the integral of cases, but the slopes are all declining..


Doubling time in the UK, Italy and Spain is presently 3 days. In the USA
it is 2 days and in Japan it is presently 8 days (though unclear how
much longer they can hold that line without taking further measures).

This site

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

has good graphs, but is's getting too popular/slow lately.

It doesn't matter how many catch it, we know that 4% of people who get it die.

Probably not. It might kill 4% of the people who were already sick and
are in hospitals with respiratory problems, and who have tested
positive for this virus. We don't know how many have been infected.
Maybe 2x, maybe 200x the official count.

It kills almost everybody in hospitals, as they're the ones that are most vulnerable to it.

Absolutely untrue, even among old people. Look it up.

I very much doubt we have the count of infections out by much. Why would we?

Because we only test people who are very sick and seem to have it. We
don't know how many have it and ignore it, or how many had it before
tests were available.

What we have a lot of is fear, panic, press, politics, and bad data..

You forgot two things. We also have disease and death. Larkin doesn't care about other people's pain and suffering. There are lots of ways to die, but this is one of the worst, not being able to catch your breath. No, it's not how I want to go out.

Then stay at home, by your own choice. But don't expect everyone else to be a pussy for a 4% chance.

I really don't care if you get sick. Just don't come to a hospital if you do. Then we all will show the courage of our convictions.

I would never go to a hospital for anything other than a broken bone. They're fucking useless at curing anything, and chances are you'll catch something else.

That depends on what you've got. I went into hospital to have an aortic valve replaced and the replacement works fine.

> And people should pay to go to hospital, that would sort out the overcrowding. In times of a pandemic, just shove the entry fee up a bit. Supply and demand innit?

No, it isn't. You put people into hospital during a pandemic to make it less likely that they will infect other people. Being richer doesn't make you more likely to infect other people, so a financial barrier doesn't make any sense.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

 

[Martin Brown]

On 04/04/2020 01:00, John Larkin wrote:

On Fri, 3 Apr 2020 16:40:42 -0700 (PDT), whit3rd <whit3rd@gmail.com
wrote:

On Friday, April 3, 2020 at 12:26:33 PM UTC-7, Commander Kinsey wrote:
On Fri, 03 Apr 2020 02:00:21 +0100, whit3rd <whit3rd@gmail.com> wrote:

On Thursday, April 2, 2020 at 11:12:05 AM UTC-7, John Larkin wrote:

The lockdowns are trashing the economy, which hurts people, and are
probably not going to save many lives.

UK modelling suggests it may decrease the death toll by an order of
magnitude or so. That is a distinctly non-trivial contribution.

My criticism of the UK lockdown strategy is that it is necessary in the
bigger cities and virus hotspots like London and Birmingham where the
probability of remaining uninfected has become intolerably low.

This displays no grasp at all of the concept of 'probability'. Show us a credible
model that gives a quantitative result other than 'many' lives in the balance.

We know 96% of us can't die from it, that's good enough.

False assurance.
That was the result with an intact healthcare system, well supplied and operating
within its limits. One municipality's turnaround is not data to match a crisis overwhelming national
resources (Spain, Italy aren't finished with their reports).

And, false acceptable level of risk.
And, if 4% of us die this year (it does spread fast enough to cover the planet under one year)
that makes the effective life expectancy 25 years... it's a bigger danger to you, personally,
than other diseases. It's bigger, in fact, than ALL OTHER causes of death put together.
If you have a brain and a heart, that should raise your pulse rate.

The Princess cruise ships were captive petri dishes, with a lot of old
people on board.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diamond_Princess_ship#2020_COVID-19

Those numbers are probably worse than you'd get in a more normal city
situation.

Not really. The population might have been atypical demographic but the
ones that got sick and tested positive had immediate access to one of
the worlds most sophisticated medical treatment centres for contagious
diseases at a time when their resources were not even remotely stressed.

We just have to wait and see how President Trump and his side-kick
perform but my money is on the USA doing uncontrolled pandemic bigger
and better than almost any other country on Earth.

He's already starting to sound like Private Frazer in Dad's Army judging
by his "inspirational" speech to the nation last night.

Only Russia, Brazil and India look to be doing a worse job.

--
Regards,
Martin Brown

 

On Sun, 5 Apr 2020 14:23:01 +0100, Martin Brown
<'''newspam'''@nezumi.demon.co.uk> wrote:

On 04/04/2020 01:00, John Larkin wrote:
On Fri, 3 Apr 2020 16:40:42 -0700 (PDT), whit3rd <whit3rd@gmail.com
wrote:

On Friday, April 3, 2020 at 12:26:33 PM UTC-7, Commander Kinsey wrote:
On Fri, 03 Apr 2020 02:00:21 +0100, whit3rd <whit3rd@gmail.com> wrote:

On Thursday, April 2, 2020 at 11:12:05 AM UTC-7, John Larkin wrote:

The lockdowns are trashing the economy, which hurts people, and are
probably not going to save many lives.

UK modelling suggests it may decrease the death toll by an order of
magnitude or so. That is a distinctly non-trivial contribution.

Oh. Computer modeling says that? How silly of me.

My criticism of the UK lockdown strategy is that it is necessary in the
bigger cities and virus hotspots like London and Birmingham where the
probability of remaining uninfected has become intolerably low.

This displays no grasp at all of the concept of 'probability'. Show us a credible
model that gives a quantitative result other than 'many' lives in the balance.

We know 96% of us can't die from it, that's good enough.

False assurance.
That was the result with an intact healthcare system, well supplied and operating
within its limits. One municipality's turnaround is not data to match a crisis overwhelming national
resources (Spain, Italy aren't finished with their reports).

And, false acceptable level of risk.
And, if 4% of us die this year (it does spread fast enough to cover the planet under one year)
that makes the effective life expectancy 25 years... it's a bigger danger to you, personally,
than other diseases. It's bigger, in fact, than ALL OTHER causes of death put together.
If you have a brain and a heart, that should raise your pulse rate.

The Princess cruise ships were captive petri dishes, with a lot of old
people on board.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diamond_Princess_ship#2020_COVID-19

Those numbers are probably worse than you'd get in a more normal city
situation.

Not really. The population might have been atypical demographic but the
ones that got sick and tested positive had immediate access to one of
the worlds most sophisticated medical treatment centres for contagious
diseases at a time when their resources were not even remotely stressed.

On the ship?

We just have to wait and see how President Trump and his side-kick
perform but my money is on the USA doing uncontrolled pandemic bigger
and better than almost any other country on Earth.

He's already starting to sound like Private Frazer in Dad's Army judging
by his "inspirational" speech to the nation last night.

Only Russia, Brazil and India look to be doing a worse job.

China is worse than any of them.



--

John Larkin Highland Technology, Inc

Science teaches us to doubt.

Claude Bernard

 

[Bill Sloman]

On Monday, April 6, 2020 at 12:49:43 AM UTC+10, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:

On Sun, 5 Apr 2020 14:23:01 +0100, Martin Brown
'''newspam'''@nezumi.demon.co.uk> wrote:

On 04/04/2020 01:00, John Larkin wrote:
On Fri, 3 Apr 2020 16:40:42 -0700 (PDT), whit3rd <whit3rd@gmail.com
wrote:

On Friday, April 3, 2020 at 12:26:33 PM UTC-7, Commander Kinsey wrote:
On Fri, 03 Apr 2020 02:00:21 +0100, whit3rd <whit3rd@gmail.com> wrote:

On Thursday, April 2, 2020 at 11:12:05 AM UTC-7, John Larkin wrote:

The lockdowns are trashing the economy, which hurts people, and are
probably not going to save many lives.

UK modelling suggests it may decrease the death toll by an order of
magnitude or so. That is a distinctly non-trivial contribution.

Oh. Computer modeling says that? How silly of me.

John Larkin is frequently silly, but rarely seems to realise it, no matter how carefully the situation of is explained to him.

He probably thinks he's being sarcastic here, although the computer model is merely confirming an insight which is trivially obvious.

My criticism of the UK lockdown strategy is that it is necessary in the
bigger cities and virus hotspots like London and Birmingham where the
probability of remaining uninfected has become intolerably low.

This displays no grasp at all of the concept of 'probability'. Show us a credible model that gives a quantitative result other than 'many' lives in the balance.

We know 96% of us can't die from it, that's good enough.

False assurance.
That was the result with an intact healthcare system, well supplied and operating within its limits. One municipality's turnaround is not data to match a crisis overwhelming national resources (Spain, Italy aren't finished with their reports).

And, false acceptable level of risk.
And, if 4% of us die this year (it does spread fast enough to cover the planet under one year)
that makes the effective life expectancy 25 years... it's a bigger danger to you, personally, than other diseases. It's bigger, in fact, than ALL OTHER causes of death put together.
If you have a brain and a heart, that should raise your pulse rate.

The Princess cruise ships were captive petri dishes, with a lot of old
people on board.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diamond_Princess_ship#2020_COVID-19

Those numbers are probably worse than you'd get in a more normal city
situation.

Not really. The population might have been atypical demographic but the
ones that got sick and tested positive had immediate access to one of
the worlds most sophisticated medical treatment centres for contagious
diseases at a time when their resources were not even remotely stressed.

On the ship?

They got taken off as soon as they got visibly sick. Anybody who needed a ventilator got hooked up to one on shore.

We just have to wait and see how President Trump and his side-kick
perform but my money is on the USA doing uncontrolled pandemic bigger
and better than almost any other country on Earth.

He's already starting to sound like Private Frazer in Dad's Army judging
by his "inspirational" speech to the nation last night.

Only Russia, Brazil and India look to be doing a worse job.

China is worse than any of them.

Only if it is lying as enthusiastically a Flyguy claims. The Australia Broadcasting Corporation has had correspondent in China since 2015, and he's still there.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/bill-birtles/5840508

What he's reporting from there is that the lock-down is being eased off, and there's no sign that epidemic has restarted.

If their infection figures are to be taken seriously - and there's no obvious reason why they shouldn't - they stopped the epidemic after it had infected a quarter of the number of people who who have now tested positive in the US.

South Korea has only had 10,000 cases so far, and it's now seeing about 100 new case per day, down from about 600 at the peak. Total cases are at 200 per million population, five times better than the US and about the same as Australia is at the moment.

It's active case peaked on the 10th March at 7362, and are now down to half that, so it's about threee weeks behind China, where they peaked on the 17th February. Australia's active case number hasn't peaked yet, but the new cases per day look as if they peaked around the 26th March around three weeks after South Korea.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

 

[Ricky C]

On Sunday, April 5, 2020 at 10:49:43 AM UTC-4, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:

On Sun, 5 Apr 2020 14:23:01 +0100, Martin Brown
'''newspam'''@nezumi.demon.co.uk> wrote:

On 04/04/2020 01:00, John Larkin wrote:
On Fri, 3 Apr 2020 16:40:42 -0700 (PDT), whit3rd <whit3rd@gmail.com
wrote:

On Friday, April 3, 2020 at 12:26:33 PM UTC-7, Commander Kinsey wrote:
On Fri, 03 Apr 2020 02:00:21 +0100, whit3rd <whit3rd@gmail.com> wrote:

On Thursday, April 2, 2020 at 11:12:05 AM UTC-7, John Larkin wrote:

The lockdowns are trashing the economy, which hurts people, and are
probably not going to save many lives.

UK modelling suggests it may decrease the death toll by an order of
magnitude or so. That is a distinctly non-trivial contribution.

Oh. Computer modeling says that? How silly of me.

This is why it is pointless to argue with the silly boy about this issue (like many others), he takes a stance that is impossible to disprove. No matter what the final numbers are, he will say it was the natural burn out for this disease and had nothing to do with social distancing, etc., etc.

Try getting him to offer a prediction of how things will go. He talks frequently about how COVID-19 is just like a stiff flu. So he should be able to place an upper bound on the death rate even without the mitigation going on.

But he won't because he is full of hot air.

--

Rick C.

--+-- Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
--+-- Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

 

[Commander Kinsey]

On Fri, 03 Apr 2020 20:41:06 +0100, Ricky C <gnuarm.deletethisbit@gmail.com> wrote:

On Friday, April 3, 2020 at 3:23:53 PM UTC-4, Commander Kinsey wrote:
On Fri, 03 Apr 2020 01:57:43 +0100, Rickie C <gnuarm.deletethisbit@gmail.com> wrote:

On Thursday, April 2, 2020 at 7:09:24 PM UTC-4, Commander Kinsey wrote:
On Thu, 02 Apr 2020 23:52:47 +0100, Ricky C <gnuarm.deletethisbit@gmail.com> wrote:


The way people ignore the idea there is an infectious disease that can kill results in more infections and more overloading of the hospitals.

So what? There's a 96% chance you'll be fine. Greater than that if you ain't old.

This is getting tiring. You just ignore any info you don't want to hear. First, the 96% is not a good number for avoiding serious disease and death. You completely ignore the collateral damage from clogging hospitals. But I get it. You've made up your mind and aren't interested in the facts.

Why would I care about the hospitals? Either I'm going to die form it or I'm not. There is nothing a hospital can do to cure me.

If you have a heart attack you will care if the hospitals are functioning. Besides, your facts are just wrong. Ventilators help people breath until their bodies can fight off the virus.

If you're bad enough to need a ventilator, you're a lost cause.

I don't care about what people like you think. The facts are out there and you are free to believe what you want.

Obviously you don't care about the facts either. You do a good job of ignoring them.

The facts are different every day, either they don't know, or the media are lying or being told what to say. If you ever watch BBC news from the UK, you'll notice whenever a scientist comes out with something groundbreaking in a live interview that upsets the status quo and goes against what the government wants us to believe, they get cut off and it's never ever shown again.

Even Larkin is not going out any more than he has to. He brags that he went to work with three other people in a big building. Woo Hoo, big risk taker. Essentially he is taking this very seriously but talking like it means nothing. Maybe he should volunteer to push wheelchairs at the hospital? How about you?

You know what I think's crazy, supermarket shopping. They limit you to three of each item, so everyone shops several times, more people, more queues, more infection. They ain't got a clue.

Why are you so obsessed with trivialities? You sound like that other guy who obsessed over the hand sanitizers at Walmart. Rather than asking them to fix the machine, he came here and griped.

It's not a triviality. It's the most annoying thing about the virus. I can't buy food, a home gym, brewing yeast, brewing sugar, or a freezer.

My heart pumps purple peanut butter for you, boo, hoo.

I'm capable of making more effort to get that food, but some are not. My neighbour for example is 90 years old and has no computer. How do you expect her to shop for food? If she wants 10 of something, she has to go shopping three times, tripling her chance of infection!

--
This email has been checked for viruses by AVG.
https://www.avg.com