When is the Covid war over?

[Jeff Layman]

On 28/03/20 03:00, Bill Sloman wrote:

> But the Covid-19 death numbers are growing exponentially. If James Arthur's 1.24 increase per day persists for 23 days, there will be have been as many Civd-19 deaths in those 23 days as 216k respiratory disease deaths that the US has in a year.

I can understand the general public having little comprehension of what
"exponential" means, but I am surprised that it seems to have been
ignored or misunderstood by those who should know better. Stating
figures about deaths from other causes misses the point entirely; they
are known causes, understood, and changes in the death rate - whether
up, down, or constant, is explicable, linear, and usually minor.

One other point is misunderstood. We talk about treatment by intensive
care and use of ventilators. The problem is those are finite sources,
maybe increasing slightly as time goes on, but the exponential growth of
coronavirus infections will drown those increases. If there are 10000
ventilators today, and 20000 next week, it won't help much if there are
10000 cases of Covid-19 today and 100000 next week.

--

Jeff

 

[Bill Sloman]

On Saturday, March 28, 2020 at 8:19:46 PM UTC+11, Rick C wrote:

On Saturday, March 28, 2020 at 4:45:17 AM UTC-4, Jeff Layman wrote:
On 28/03/20 03:00, Bill Sloman wrote:

<snip>

> Amazingly, in spite of all the mistakes the Feds have made and all the lies Trump has said about it all, his approval numbers seem to be as strong as ever.

There's no such thing as bad publicity.

In fact the numbers change very little - he has had a roughly 43% approval rating for most of his presidency/ It seems anybody silly enough to fall for his propaganda is too silly to notice how disconnected from reality it is.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

 

On Friday, March 27, 2020 at 3:44:03 PM UTC-4, Harry D wrote:

Trump is mainly concerned about reducing a possible humongous deficit that is on course to break $4T. FY20 budget was on course to break $1T as it was, then the $2T recovery package is pure deficit, bringing the total to $3T. Since the FY is only at the 50% mark, a loss of $1T in tax revenue by year end is very likely an underestimate given the looks of the economy. That totals to $4T. The morons are heading for default.

 

[Jeff Layman]

On 28/03/20 09:19, Rick C wrote:

On Saturday, March 28, 2020 at 4:45:17 AM UTC-4, Jeff Layman wrote:
On 28/03/20 03:00, Bill Sloman wrote:

But the Covid-19 death numbers are growing exponentially. If James Arthur's 1.24 increase per day persists for 23 days, there will be have been as many Civd-19 deaths in those 23 days as 216k respiratory disease deaths that the US has in a year.

I can understand the general public having little comprehension of what
"exponential" means, but I am surprised that it seems to have been
ignored or misunderstood by those who should know better. Stating
figures about deaths from other causes misses the point entirely; they
are known causes, understood, and changes in the death rate - whether
up, down, or constant, is explicable, linear, and usually minor.

I have to say, I'm not following you. What point are you talking about being missed???

I think you've identified the person who seems to be denying the
increase. There are others I've seen in other NGs who, despite an
apparent scientific background, can't seem to get their heads round
anything other than a linear increase in cases or deaths. They see 100
last week and 200 this as a simple linear progression, perhaps
conveniently forgetting that in the weeks before that it was 25 and 50,
and believing next week it will be 300, not 400, and so on.

I think Bill is comparing CV19 to other respiratory diseases because, not unlike the President, our resident denialist keeps saying "so far" this disease has a low death tally compared to "the flu".

I think the rest of us understand that the number of deaths from other causes is totally irrelevant. But explain that to Larkin.

I can't. There are none so blind as those that will not see.

One other point is misunderstood. We talk about treatment by intensive
care and use of ventilators. The problem is those are finite sources,
maybe increasing slightly as time goes on, but the exponential growth of
coronavirus infections will drown those increases. If there are 10000
ventilators today, and 20000 next week, it won't help much if there are
10000 cases of Covid-19 today and 100000 next week.

I think that has been addressed here ad nauseam. Again, Larkin loves to belittle this concern even though it is pointed out that an exponential rise in the numbers will swamp virtually any finite resource. While this disease does show some sign of relenting a small amount, the number of infected continues to grow and at a faster rate. It is simply the rate of the acceleration that is not as high as it was. Meanwhile we have already reached the limits of the healthcare system in NY city. From here on out this disease will cause patients with other diseases to suffer from the competition for resources.

Indeed, but they will be a fraction of those who need ICU treatment due
to coronavirus. I wonder if those who don't have Covid-19, yet died
because they were not treated for something else, and would have
survived if they had been treated for that, should really be considered
a Covid-19 death.

I just can't understand why anyone would be in denial about this and talking about asymptomatic "ghost" cases of the virus as if it has some bearing on the matter at this point.

All we need to do now is track the numbers of the people in the ER/ICU and how many can't be treated and of course, how many die. That will tell us how we are doing. So far we have sucked.

Well, we in the UK are a couple of weeks behind Italy, and it won't be
good here in mid-April. Over there, what will New York be like at that
time. Some things don't bear thinking about.

> Amazingly, in spite of all the mistakes the Feds have made and all the lies Trump has said about it all, his approval numbers seem to be as strong as ever.

Well, $2T can buy lots of friends...

--

Jeff

 

[Rick C]

On Saturday, March 28, 2020 at 10:51:09 AM UTC-4, Jeff Layman wrote:

Well, $2T can buy lots of friends...

Yeah, I considered that as the Republicans pushed hard for the stimulus package. I wish they would push so hard for universal healthcare. Sometimes I just want to give up on the US and move somewhere else.

No matter who is elected President or controls the Senate and House we will still have full bore contention in government rather than anything remotely like cooperation.

Maybe it's time to get rid of them all. Anyone see "Designated Survivor"?

--

Rick C.

+- Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
+- Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

 

[Rick C]

On Saturday, March 28, 2020 at 12:57:01 PM UTC-4, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:

On Sat, 28 Mar 2020 08:45:11 +0000, Jeff Layman
jmlayman@invalid.invalid> wrote:

One other point is misunderstood. We talk about treatment by intensive
care and use of ventilators. The problem is those are finite sources,
maybe increasing slightly as time goes on, but the exponential growth of
coronavirus infections will drown those increases. If there are 10000
ventilators today, and 20000 next week, it won't help much if there are
10000 cases of Covid-19 today and 100000 next week.

I understand exponential growth. There would be 1 million the
following week, then 10 million the next week, and 100 billion cases a
month after that. The US will hit 100 billion cases around the end of
April.

That's the difference between an engineer and a normal person. A normal person would understand why the infection count can't reach 100 billion. The infection count CAN reach 1,000,000 and it CAN reach 10,000,000. It will likely take a bit longer than a week each because we seem to have modified R0 a bit. The doubling time is now 5 days while it used to be 3 days. With more and more areas of the US acting like this disease matters the doubling time should stretch out longer yet. But when will the new infection rate stop increasing and trend negative? Not soon enough.

Meanwhile Larkin continues to show why he doesn't use math when he designs electronics. He uses intuition and simulation much like a college sophomore.

--

Rick C.

++ Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
++ Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

 

On Sat, 28 Mar 2020 08:45:11 +0000, Jeff Layman
<jmlayman@invalid.invalid> wrote:

On 28/03/20 03:00, Bill Sloman wrote:

But the Covid-19 death numbers are growing exponentially. If James Arthur's 1.24 increase per day persists for 23 days, there will be have been as many Civd-19 deaths in those 23 days as 216k respiratory disease deaths that the US has in a year.

I can understand the general public having little comprehension of what
"exponential" means, but I am surprised that it seems to have been
ignored or misunderstood by those who should know better. Stating
figures about deaths from other causes misses the point entirely; they
are known causes, understood, and changes in the death rate - whether
up, down, or constant, is explicable, linear, and usually minor.

One other point is misunderstood. We talk about treatment by intensive
care and use of ventilators. The problem is those are finite sources,
maybe increasing slightly as time goes on, but the exponential growth of
coronavirus infections will drown those increases. If there are 10000
ventilators today, and 20000 next week, it won't help much if there are
10000 cases of Covid-19 today and 100000 next week.

I understand exponential growth. There would be 1 million the
following week, then 10 million the next week, and 100 billion cases a
month after that. The US will hit 100 billion cases around the end of
April.



--

John Larkin Highland Technology, Inc

The cork popped merrily, and Lord Peter rose to his feet.
"Bunter", he said, "I give you a toast. The triumph of Instinct over Reason"

 

[Rick C]

On Saturday, March 28, 2020 at 2:12:22 PM UTC-4, Jeff Layman wrote:

On 28/03/20 16:56, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:

I understand exponential growth. There would be 1 million the
following week, then 10 million the next week, and 100 billion cases a
month after that. The US will hit 100 billion cases around the end of
April.

And 5 weeks previously there would be 0.1 of a case, and the week before
that 0.01 of a case, etc.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reductio_ad_absurdum

You do realize you won't make any difference in what he says, right? It's not like he is an unknown quantity around here.

--

Rick C.

--- Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
--- Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

 

[Jeff Layman]

On 28/03/20 16:56, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:

On Sat, 28 Mar 2020 08:45:11 +0000, Jeff Layman
jmlayman@invalid.invalid> wrote:

On 28/03/20 03:00, Bill Sloman wrote:

But the Covid-19 death numbers are growing exponentially. If James Arthur's 1.24 increase per day persists for 23 days, there will be have been as many Civd-19 deaths in those 23 days as 216k respiratory disease deaths that the US has in a year.

I can understand the general public having little comprehension of what
"exponential" means, but I am surprised that it seems to have been
ignored or misunderstood by those who should know better. Stating
figures about deaths from other causes misses the point entirely; they
are known causes, understood, and changes in the death rate - whether
up, down, or constant, is explicable, linear, and usually minor.

One other point is misunderstood. We talk about treatment by intensive
care and use of ventilators. The problem is those are finite sources,
maybe increasing slightly as time goes on, but the exponential growth of
coronavirus infections will drown those increases. If there are 10000
ventilators today, and 20000 next week, it won't help much if there are
10000 cases of Covid-19 today and 100000 next week.

I understand exponential growth. There would be 1 million the
following week, then 10 million the next week, and 100 billion cases a
month after that. The US will hit 100 billion cases around the end of
April.

And 5 weeks previously there would be 0.1 of a case, and the week before
that 0.01 of a case, etc.
<https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reductio_ad_absurdum>

--

Jeff

 

[Flyguy]

On Saturday, March 28, 2020 at 11:36:41 AM UTC-7, Rick C wrote:

On Saturday, March 28, 2020 at 2:12:22 PM UTC-4, Jeff Layman wrote:
On 28/03/20 16:56, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:

I understand exponential growth. There would be 1 million the
following week, then 10 million the next week, and 100 billion cases a
month after that. The US will hit 100 billion cases around the end of
April.

And 5 weeks previously there would be 0.1 of a case, and the week before
that 0.01 of a case, etc.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reductio_ad_absurdum

You do realize you won't make any difference in what he says, right? It's not like he is an unknown quantity around here.

--

Rick C.

--- Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
--- Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

Infection rates (cases ppm) vary widely from state-to-state. The lowest rate (Nebraska) is 52 times less than NY. Thus, imposing (and relaxing) lockdown edicts need to be made, not only on a state-by-state, but also a county-by-county basis.

The number of COVID cases in the US grew by 24% in just the last 24 hr (93,000 to 115,334). This was expected as testing became more widely available. The biggest jump was NJ, where the number jumped by 62%.

 

On Sat, 28 Mar 2020 18:12:15 +0000, Jeff Layman
<jmlayman@invalid.invalid> wrote:

On 28/03/20 16:56, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Sat, 28 Mar 2020 08:45:11 +0000, Jeff Layman
jmlayman@invalid.invalid> wrote:

On 28/03/20 03:00, Bill Sloman wrote:

But the Covid-19 death numbers are growing exponentially. If James Arthur's 1.24 increase per day persists for 23 days, there will be have been as many Civd-19 deaths in those 23 days as 216k respiratory disease deaths that the US has in a year.

I can understand the general public having little comprehension of what
"exponential" means, but I am surprised that it seems to have been
ignored or misunderstood by those who should know better. Stating
figures about deaths from other causes misses the point entirely; they
are known causes, understood, and changes in the death rate - whether
up, down, or constant, is explicable, linear, and usually minor.

One other point is misunderstood. We talk about treatment by intensive
care and use of ventilators. The problem is those are finite sources,
maybe increasing slightly as time goes on, but the exponential growth of
coronavirus infections will drown those increases. If there are 10000
ventilators today, and 20000 next week, it won't help much if there are
10000 cases of Covid-19 today and 100000 next week.

I understand exponential growth. There would be 1 million the
following week, then 10 million the next week, and 100 billion cases a
month after that. The US will hit 100 billion cases around the end of
April.

And 5 weeks previously there would be 0.1 of a case, and the week before
that 0.01 of a case, etc.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reductio_ad_absurdum

I'm halfway through re-reading Barry's great and terrible book The
Great Influenza. It's horrifying. H1N1 was insanely infectuous and
killed millions of healthy young people in ghastly ways. Some died 12
hours after first symptoms. In some towns 80% of the population got
seriously sick. Estimated deaths are 20-100 million, in a smaller
world. Anyone interested in the current pandemic should read his book.

If this C19 thing turns out to be a hyped seasonal cold, its benefit
may be that the world finally does some rational assessment of risk
and some serious research to prepare for it. Another 1918-type flu
could be thousands of times worse than this corona thing. Or a comet
strike, or a big earthquake. I guess the criterion would be to
optimize research spending scaled to the probable cost per life saved.
Imagine what we could have done with the money we wasted on failed
military projects, stupid wars, the space shuttle/ISS, the
Supercollider, or the several manufactured investment crisies.

If the original virus were recovered from a frozen body or something,
would it start a similar epidemic now? Probably not. I wonder why.



--

John Larkin Highland Technology, Inc

The cork popped merrily, and Lord Peter rose to his feet.
"Bunter", he said, "I give you a toast. The triumph of Instinct over Reason"

 

[Rick C]

On Saturday, March 28, 2020 at 3:35:50 PM UTC-4, Flyguy wrote:

On Saturday, March 28, 2020 at 11:36:41 AM UTC-7, Rick C wrote:
On Saturday, March 28, 2020 at 2:12:22 PM UTC-4, Jeff Layman wrote:
On 28/03/20 16:56, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:

I understand exponential growth. There would be 1 million the
following week, then 10 million the next week, and 100 billion cases a
month after that. The US will hit 100 billion cases around the end of
April.

And 5 weeks previously there would be 0.1 of a case, and the week before
that 0.01 of a case, etc.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reductio_ad_absurdum

You do realize you won't make any difference in what he says, right? It's not like he is an unknown quantity around here.

--

Rick C.

--- Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
--- Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

Infection rates (cases ppm) vary widely from state-to-state. The lowest rate (Nebraska) is 52 times less than NY. Thus, imposing (and relaxing) lockdown edicts need to be made, not only on a state-by-state, but also a county-by-county basis.

Yup. A Governor has that authority and should have the information. Like Trump, some Governors don't want to harm the economy. It was just this past Tuesday the state of VA finally instituted a restaurant closure order.


> The number of COVID cases in the US grew by 24% in just the last 24 hr (93,000 to 115,334). This was expected as testing became more widely available. The biggest jump was NJ, where the number jumped by 62%.

Not sure where you get your numbers. I use the numbers on worldometers.info so I have consistent data. They typically update for the day by midnight.. The new cases for yesterday was 9% above the day before. The last several days has averaged 15%. It appears we are making a small dent in the numbers. The rate was closer to 30% a day.

--

Rick C.

--+ Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
--+ Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

 

[Rick C]

On Saturday, March 28, 2020 at 3:50:41 PM UTC-4, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:

If this C19 thing turns out to be a hyped seasonal cold,

Why does JL keep talking about a comet when we are in a pandemic???

--

Rick C.

-+- Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
-+- Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

 

[Flyguy]

On Saturday, March 28, 2020 at 1:29:21 PM UTC-7, Rick C wrote:

On Saturday, March 28, 2020 at 3:35:50 PM UTC-4, Flyguy wrote:
On Saturday, March 28, 2020 at 11:36:41 AM UTC-7, Rick C wrote:
On Saturday, March 28, 2020 at 2:12:22 PM UTC-4, Jeff Layman wrote:
On 28/03/20 16:56, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:

I understand exponential growth. There would be 1 million the
following week, then 10 million the next week, and 100 billion cases a
month after that. The US will hit 100 billion cases around the end of
April.

And 5 weeks previously there would be 0.1 of a case, and the week before
that 0.01 of a case, etc.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reductio_ad_absurdum

You do realize you won't make any difference in what he says, right? It's not like he is an unknown quantity around here.

--

Rick C.

--- Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
--- Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

Infection rates (cases ppm) vary widely from state-to-state. The lowest rate (Nebraska) is 52 times less than NY. Thus, imposing (and relaxing) lockdown edicts need to be made, not only on a state-by-state, but also a county-by-county basis.

Yup. A Governor has that authority and should have the information. Like Trump, some Governors don't want to harm the economy. It was just this past Tuesday the state of VA finally instituted a restaurant closure order.


The number of COVID cases in the US grew by 24% in just the last 24 hr (93,000 to 115,334). This was expected as testing became more widely available. The biggest jump was NJ, where the number jumped by 62%.

Not sure where you get your numbers. I use the numbers on worldometers.info so I have consistent data. They typically update for the day by midnight. The new cases for yesterday was 9% above the day before. The last several days has averaged 15%. It appears we are making a small dent in the numbers. The rate was closer to 30% a day.

--

Rick C.

--+ Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
--+ Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

I posted the link to my data source (different from the CDC, but pretty comparable). Your data is for the WORLD infection rate - I am looking at the US only. World data depends upon numbers from China, where they are lying.

 

[Rick C]

On Saturday, March 28, 2020 at 5:33:45 PM UTC-4, Flyguy wrote:

On Saturday, March 28, 2020 at 1:29:21 PM UTC-7, Rick C wrote:
On Saturday, March 28, 2020 at 3:35:50 PM UTC-4, Flyguy wrote:
On Saturday, March 28, 2020 at 11:36:41 AM UTC-7, Rick C wrote:
On Saturday, March 28, 2020 at 2:12:22 PM UTC-4, Jeff Layman wrote:
On 28/03/20 16:56, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:

I understand exponential growth. There would be 1 million the
following week, then 10 million the next week, and 100 billion cases a
month after that. The US will hit 100 billion cases around the end of
April.

And 5 weeks previously there would be 0.1 of a case, and the week before
that 0.01 of a case, etc.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reductio_ad_absurdum

You do realize you won't make any difference in what he says, right? It's not like he is an unknown quantity around here.

--

Rick C.

--- Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
--- Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

Infection rates (cases ppm) vary widely from state-to-state. The lowest rate (Nebraska) is 52 times less than NY. Thus, imposing (and relaxing) lockdown edicts need to be made, not only on a state-by-state, but also a county-by-county basis.

Yup. A Governor has that authority and should have the information. Like Trump, some Governors don't want to harm the economy. It was just this past Tuesday the state of VA finally instituted a restaurant closure order..


The number of COVID cases in the US grew by 24% in just the last 24 hr (93,000 to 115,334). This was expected as testing became more widely available. The biggest jump was NJ, where the number jumped by 62%.

Not sure where you get your numbers. I use the numbers on worldometers..info so I have consistent data. They typically update for the day by midnight. The new cases for yesterday was 9% above the day before. The last several days has averaged 15%. It appears we are making a small dent in the numbers. The rate was closer to 30% a day.

--

Rick C.

--+ Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
--+ Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

I posted the link to my data source (different from the CDC, but pretty comparable). Your data is for the WORLD infection rate - I am looking at the US only. World data depends upon numbers from China, where they are lying.

I'm using the US daily data published by worldometers.info.

Don't make that mistake. Data from arbitrary sources collects it in different ways. worldometers.info updates their daily number once a day "Data as of 0:00 GMT+0". Consistency in timing is important if you are just looking at what is supposed to be a 24 hour number.

--

Rick C.

-++ Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
-++ Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

 

[Clifford Heath]

On 28/3/20 7:45 pm, Jeff Layman wrote:

On 28/03/20 03:00, Bill Sloman wrote:

But the Covid-19 death numbers are growing exponentially. If James
Arthur's 1.24 increase per day persists for 23 days, there will be
have been as many Civd-19 deaths in those 23 days as 216k respiratory
disease deaths that the US has in a year.

I can understand the general public having little comprehension of what
"exponential" means, but I am surprised that it seems to have been
ignored or misunderstood by those who should know better.

Economists and politicians spend their entire lives managing and
worrying about systems that are mostly linear (or very low-order
polynomial). They have massive cognitive biases against any system being
driven by fundamentally non-linear behaviour - they just can't really
conceive of it.

CH

 

[Clifford Heath]

On 29/3/20 9:11 am, Rick C wrote:

I'm using the US daily data published by worldometers.info.

Don't make that mistake. Data from arbitrary sources collects it in different ways. worldometers.info updates their daily number once a day "Data as of 0:00 GMT+0". Consistency in timing is important if you are just looking at what is supposed to be a 24 hour number.

I guarantee you they still get the data "as it comes" - sporadic
reporting - and just tell you the figures at 0:00GMT+0. They're not
telling you what the trend line would be at 0:00GMT+0. So it's still
noisy data, depending on the noise in the reporting they receive.

 

[Clifford Heath]

On 29/3/20 6:50 am, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:

If the original virus were recovered from a frozen body or something,
would it start a similar epidemic now? Probably not. I wonder why.

It's been done, and it's believed to be just as infectious as ever.
But after initial infection, it would be less serious because it
contains many features that are still present in current flu strains.

Unlike the current virus!

There are plenty of novel pathogens that haven't yet had the opportunity
to infect humans. Bats alone carry at least 60 different species of
corona viruses that have been studied, and most of those have not yet
jumped into something that affects humans. There are plenty more nasties
where SARS-COV-19 came from.

We need to study bats' immune systems in much greater detail, to find
out how they survive their complex pathogens.

CH

 

[Clifford Heath]

On 29/3/20 12:49 am, bloggs.fredbloggs.fred@gmail.com wrote:

On Friday, March 27, 2020 at 3:44:03 PM UTC-4, Harry D wrote:
The morons are heading for default.

You mean where all the numbers in billionaires' bank accounts start to
become meaningless, because there isn't enough "stuff" they could buy if
they decided to spend up?

We've been "in default" - trading while insolvent - for decades, and
it's getting worse, but everyone has their fingers in their ears
ignoring that.

CH

 

[Rick C]

On Saturday, March 28, 2020 at 7:00:54 PM UTC-4, Clifford Heath wrote:

On 28/3/20 7:45 pm, Jeff Layman wrote:
On 28/03/20 03:00, Bill Sloman wrote:

But the Covid-19 death numbers are growing exponentially. If James
Arthur's 1.24 increase per day persists for 23 days, there will be
have been as many Civd-19 deaths in those 23 days as 216k respiratory
disease deaths that the US has in a year.

I can understand the general public having little comprehension of what
"exponential" means, but I am surprised that it seems to have been
ignored or misunderstood by those who should know better.

Economists and politicians spend their entire lives managing and
worrying about systems that are mostly linear (or very low-order
polynomial). They have massive cognitive biases against any system being
driven by fundamentally non-linear behaviour - they just can't really
conceive of it.

Economists??? I had roommate in college pursuing a PhD in economics. He had to swat a ton of math. It's virtually all math.

--

Rick C.

+-- Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
+-- Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209