OT: more from the resident alarmist

[Whoey Louie]

On Friday, February 28, 2020 at 8:46:40 PM UTC-5, Jeff Liebermann wrote:

On Fri, 28 Feb 2020 09:35:52 -0800 (PST), Whoey Louie
trader4@optonline.net> wrote:

On Friday, February 28, 2020 at 12:10:13 PM UTC-5, Jeff Liebermann wrote:
On Fri, 28 Feb 2020 07:25:36 -0800 (PST), Whoey Louie
trader4@optonline.net> wrote:

Keep lying and denying. It's what you do best. Meanwhile claiming that
the death rate is 20% puts you in the class of village idiot, no point
in further discussion on the issue. Funny too, Rick keeps calling me
an alarmist, but he allows your 20% BS lie to go unchallenged. You
two are quite a pair.

https://plague.com
83,867 confirmed cases
2,887 deaths
36,686 recovered

2,887 / 83,867 = 3.4% death rate
36,686 / 83,867 = 43.7% recovered

The 40% difference between the two precentages are those that are
currently ill, where there is no current determination as to whether
they will recover or die. With that large and uncertainty, the death
rate can be any number between 3.4% and 43.4%.

Oh, BS.

Please note that I didn't specify a death rate except to suggest that
it could be anywhere between 3.4% and 43.4% using the above numbers.

And health officials around the world, CDC, etc say it's around 2%.
Not 43%. It's supported by two months of data, from many countries,
not just China. The Diamond Princess for example. About 700 infected,
6 deaths. There will probably be more, but it could triple and
it still would be less than 3%. If this was 43% fatal, the whole
scenario around the world would be totally different and it would
be obvious. There are also likely many uncounted
cases, where people have mild symptoms, never hospitalized or detected
and they recover.

 

[Whoey Louie]

On Friday, February 28, 2020 at 6:30:03 PM UTC-5, edward...@gmail.com wrote:

On Friday, February 28, 2020 at 3:13:52 PM UTC-8, John S wrote:
On 2/10/2020 11:10 AM, edward.ming.lee@gmail.com wrote:

https://tinyurl.com/yx5ofggy

Can we put this in perspective please? From https://www.worldometers.info/

Coronavirus deaths this year: 2876
Seasonal flu deaths this year: 78130

Yes, the flu cases have not been tested for Covid-19. There was a case in (Japan or Taiwan, i forgot) of someone who die from the flu, but it was tested positive for Covid-19.

I heard that we (in Calif) only have a few hundred test kits; so, no way of testing enough cases.

That is true. The first community based case in CA, the patient was in
two hospitals for a week, before the CDC finally agree to run the test.
I see there are now three more community cases, one in Santa Clara,
CA, one in Washington, one in Oregon. One was a student in a school.
Not good.

 

[Whoey Louie]

On Friday, February 28, 2020 at 6:13:52 PM UTC-5, John S wrote:

On 2/10/2020 11:10 AM, edward.ming.lee@gmail.com wrote:

https://tinyurl.com/yx5ofggy

Can we put this in perspective please? From https://www.worldometers.info/

Coronavirus deaths this year: 2876
Seasonal flu deaths this year: 78130

To put it in perspective you have to look at where we are in the cycle.
In the case of the flu, it's been going on for months, the flu has
been widespread for months. With Covid, it's still in it's early stages,
easily transmittable and exponentially growing with a morbidity rate
that is 20x that of the flu.

 

[Whoey Louie]

On Friday, February 28, 2020 at 5:25:47 PM UTC-5, DecadentLinux...@decadence.org wrote:

Whoey Louie <trader4@optonline.net> wrote in
news:93867bf8-0ac7-4853-8125-d6d5f5fb635f@googlegroups.com:

On Friday, February 28, 2020 at 12:52:09 PM UTC-5,
DecadentLinux...@decadence.org wrote:
edward.ming.lee@gmail.com wrote in
news:039d70f3-dc1a-4c4f-b7f8-07ee58bf23fc@googlegroups.com:

My point remains that in China all appearances indicate they
have the dis
ease under control.

Depends on who you listen to, a few days ago, in the GuangDong
region, even with cases dropped from 1300 down to 400 active
(as they claimed). There were couple of nurses asking for
external helps, then immediately censored by the government.
Medical Censorship 2.0.


Could be 3.0. For all we know they did it on purpose.

Yes, that's very logical. Cripple their economy and start a
woldwide pandemic which will further screw their own economy, on
purpose.




Maybe they
have zones of their nation they do not like. They are vindictive
that way, you know... Communist governments.

Right, they decided to destroy Wuhan, which rather than being some
rebel dissident area is actually one of their main manufacturing
hubs producing everything from steel to high tech.

Wrong, always wrong. And no expanding to stupid conspiracy
theories.



If the end result is that we all die and they live and get to
restart after, their 'new economy' is all good for them from then on,
and we are all gone. No where to go but up from there except now
everyone has home town genes.

Maybe you have problems grasping bigger picture views that folks
like that have.

No, it's just that I don't just make up bizarre conspiracy theories
that have zero factual basis.

 

[Jeff Liebermann]

On Fri, 28 Feb 2020 18:19:10 -0800 (PST), Bill Sloman
<bill.sloman@ieee.org> wrote:

On Saturday, February 29, 2020 at 4:10:13 AM UTC+11, Jeff Liebermann wrote:
On Fri, 28 Feb 2020 07:25:36 -0800 (PST), Whoey Louie
trader4@optonline.net> wrote:

Keep lying and denying. It's what you do best. Meanwhile claiming that
the death rate is 20% puts you in the class of village idiot, no point
in further discussion on the issue. Funny too, Rick keeps calling me
an alarmist, but he allows your 20% BS lie to go unchallenged. You
two are quite a pair.

https://plague.com

Doesn't load.

It loads just fine in several browsers on 4 different devices.
No clue why it might not be working. Maybe a government conspiracy to
deprive citizens of their right to information?

Here's the data repository:
<https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19>
which includes a list of other data sources. Might be interesting to
compare these.

83,867 confirmed cases
2,887 deaths
36,686 recovered

2,887 / 83,867 = 3.4% death rate
36,686 / 83,867 = 43.7% recovered

Todays numbers are:
85,953 confirmed cases
2,941 deaths
39,761 recovered

2,941 / 85,953 = 3.4% death rate
36,686 / 85,953 = 42.7% recovered

The 40% difference between the two percentages are those that are
currently ill, where there is no current determination as to whether
they will recover or die. With that large and uncertainty, the death
rate can be any number between 3.4% and 43.4%.

The Chinese figures suggest that about 20% of those that still ill
are serious or critical, which is about 7000 people. Some of those
are going to die. If half of them did it would push the death rate
up to 8%.

That isn't any kind of reliable estimate either.

It's good enough for now. I'll spare you my guess(tm) as to what the
future holds as it's less reliable than most estimates.

Note the graph in the lower right showing an increasing rate of
recovery.

Probably reflecting the fact that the early cases had to be pretty
sick to get noticed and tested, and were correspondingly more likely to die.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/
gives a more sophisticated discussion, which does go into that kind of problem.

Yep. I mentioned that in another of posting in this thread. The
first link is a warning to not use simplistic number juggling (like
we're doing now) to derive a mortality rate:
<https://smw.ch/article/doi/smw.2020.20203>

However, I beg to differ on the possibility of early cases not being
noticed. The number of initial cases are too small to have much of an
effect on the much larger current number. At worst, there would be
some uncertainty at the beginning of the graphs, but not much effect
when diluted into the current trends.

This caught my attention:
Age, Sex, Existing Conditions of COVID-19 Cases and Deaths
<https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/>
Looks like the elderly (like me) are much more at risk of dying than
the young. Same with those with pre-existing conditions (like me).

WHO and China CDC apparently reached some kind of agreement and
published a joint report.
<https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/who-china-joint-mission-on-covid-19-final-report.pdf>
Lots of pretty graphs and what seems like useful information. Reading
the section on "Zoonotic Origins" (transmitted from animals to humans)
via the Huanan Wholesale Seafood Market. It's odd that the exact
source hasn't been identified yet.


--
Jeff Liebermann jeffl@cruzio.com
150 Felker St #D http://www.LearnByDestroying.com
Santa Cruz CA 95060 http://802.11junk.com
Skype: JeffLiebermann AE6KS 831-336-2558

 

[Rick C]

On Saturday, February 29, 2020 at 1:58:39 PM UTC-5, Jeff Liebermann wrote:

This caught my attention:
Age, Sex, Existing Conditions of COVID-19 Cases and Deaths
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/
Looks like the elderly (like me) are much more at risk of dying than
the young. Same with those with pre-existing conditions (like me).

WHO and China CDC apparently reached some kind of agreement and
published a joint report.
https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/who-china-joint-mission-on-covid-19-final-report.pdf
Lots of pretty graphs and what seems like useful information. Reading
the section on "Zoonotic Origins" (transmitted from animals to humans)
via the Huanan Wholesale Seafood Market. It's odd that the exact
source hasn't been identified yet.

How exactly would you expect this to be determined?

I was watching some of Trump's press conference on COVID-19 and he seems to be playing hard on the idea that "most" (meaning 80%) will only have light symptoms. So he is ignoring the 20% who will have severe symptoms and require hospital care, which will likely overwhelm our hospitals if this thing takes off like in China.

I'm hoping we can keep a lid on it. Otherwise it is going to really mess up the economy for months.

--

Rick C.

+--- Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
+--- Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

 

[Whoey Louie]

On Saturday, February 29, 2020 at 2:22:14 PM UTC-5, Rick C wrote:

On Saturday, February 29, 2020 at 1:58:39 PM UTC-5, Jeff Liebermann wrote:

This caught my attention:
Age, Sex, Existing Conditions of COVID-19 Cases and Deaths
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/
Looks like the elderly (like me) are much more at risk of dying than
the young. Same with those with pre-existing conditions (like me).

WHO and China CDC apparently reached some kind of agreement and
published a joint report.
https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/who-china-joint-mission-on-covid-19-final-report.pdf
Lots of pretty graphs and what seems like useful information. Reading
the section on "Zoonotic Origins" (transmitted from animals to humans)
via the Huanan Wholesale Seafood Market. It's odd that the exact
source hasn't been identified yet.

How exactly would you expect this to be determined?

I was watching some of Trump's press conference on COVID-19 and he seems to be playing hard on the idea that "most" (meaning 80%) will only have light symptoms. So he is ignoring the 20% who will have severe symptoms and require hospital care, which will likely overwhelm our hospitals if this thing takes off like in China.

Could be worse, Rush Limbaugh said Covid is the common cold. Not sure
how he reached that brilliant conclusion, but I would assume it's because
some common colds are caused by another coronavirus and Rush is too
stupid to understand the difference. It's about the depth of his
analysis on global warming. There it starts and ends with the earth is
too big for man to have any impact on the climate.

Old Rush did a good job of minimizing the whole Covid thing, blaming the
media for reporting it as a big story to screw Trump. reminds me of the
time a big hurrican was approaching FL and while authorities were urging
people to prepare and/or evacuate, Rush was saying that hurrican forecasters
can't tell you where it will hit, they are usually wrong, etc. This was
with the hurricane two or three days away when we all know they are
highly accurate. When it was just short of hitting FL, Rush hopped on
his G5 that was waiting at the airport. Anyone dumb enough to listen
to his precious rantings probably didn't have that option.

 

[Whoey Louie]

On Saturday, February 29, 2020 at 1:58:39 PM UTC-5, Jeff Liebermann wrote:

On Fri, 28 Feb 2020 18:19:10 -0800 (PST), Bill Sloman
bill.sloman@ieee.org> wrote:

On Saturday, February 29, 2020 at 4:10:13 AM UTC+11, Jeff Liebermann wrote:
On Fri, 28 Feb 2020 07:25:36 -0800 (PST), Whoey Louie
trader4@optonline.net> wrote:

Keep lying and denying. It's what you do best. Meanwhile claiming that
the death rate is 20% puts you in the class of village idiot, no point
in further discussion on the issue. Funny too, Rick keeps calling me
an alarmist, but he allows your 20% BS lie to go unchallenged. You
two are quite a pair.

https://plague.com

Doesn't load.

It loads just fine in several browsers on 4 different devices.
No clue why it might not be working. Maybe a government conspiracy to
deprive citizens of their right to information?

Here's the data repository:
https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19
which includes a list of other data sources. Might be interesting to
compare these.

83,867 confirmed cases
2,887 deaths
36,686 recovered

2,887 / 83,867 = 3.4% death rate
36,686 / 83,867 = 43.7% recovered

Todays numbers are:
85,953 confirmed cases
2,941 deaths
39,761 recovered

2,941 / 85,953 = 3.4% death rate
36,686 / 85,953 = 42.7% recovered

The 40% difference between the two percentages are those that are
currently ill, where there is no current determination as to whether
they will recover or die. With that large and uncertainty, the death
rate can be any number between 3.4% and 43.4%.

The Chinese figures suggest that about 20% of those that still ill
are serious or critical, which is about 7000 people. Some of those
are going to die. If half of them did it would push the death rate
up to 8%.

That isn't any kind of reliable estimate either.

It's good enough for now. I'll spare you my guess(tm) as to what the
future holds as it's less reliable than most estimates.

Note the graph in the lower right showing an increasing rate of
recovery.

Probably reflecting the fact that the early cases had to be pretty
sick to get noticed and tested, and were correspondingly more likely to die.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/
gives a more sophisticated discussion, which does go into that kind of problem.

Yep. I mentioned that in another of posting in this thread. The
first link is a warning to not use simplistic number juggling (like
we're doing now) to derive a mortality rate:
https://smw.ch/article/doi/smw.2020.20203

However, I beg to differ on the possibility of early cases not being
noticed. The number of initial cases are too small to have much of an
effect on the much larger current number.

It's not just early cases that go unnoticed, it's cases right now
going unnoticed. Even here in the USA, if you have flu symptoms,
what are you supposed to do? NOTHING. Even if you are hospitalized,
as of this week, the CDC REFUSED to test, unless you had some history
of possible contact. That first community case near Sacremento, the
patient had been in two hospitals for a week, before the CDC finally
agreed to do the test. The patient was intubated upon arriving at the
second hospital and the CDC refused for 4 days. I assume it was only
because of persistance on the part of that hospital that they finally
did test. How many hospitals had similar patients, the CDC said no,
maybe they recover, no test. Right now, we don't even have the capacity to
do a lot more tests. Situation is similar in many countries that have
more cases. So there could be a lot of people with mild cases that
are not recorded.

 

[Whoey Louie]

On Saturday, February 29, 2020 at 12:27:20 PM UTC-5, DecadentLinux...@decadence.org wrote:

Whoey Louie <trader4@optonline.net> wrote in
news:7d00a84a-75ef-4172-b5b2-4a00e1c88228@googlegroups.com:

On Friday, February 28, 2020 at 5:25:47 PM UTC-5,
DecadentLinux...@decadence.org wrote:
Whoey Louie <trader4@optonline.net> wrote in
news:93867bf8-0ac7-4853-8125-d6d5f5fb635f@googlegroups.com:

On Friday, February 28, 2020 at 12:52:09 PM UTC-5,
DecadentLinux...@decadence.org wrote:
edward.ming.lee@gmail.com wrote in
news:039d70f3-dc1a-4c4f-b7f8-07ee58bf23fc@googlegroups.com:

My point remains that in China all appearances indicate
they have the dis
ease under control.

Depends on who you listen to, a few days ago, in the
GuangDong region, even with cases dropped from 1300 down to
400 active (as they claimed). There were couple of nurses
asking for external helps, then immediately censored by the
government. Medical Censorship 2.0.


Could be 3.0. For all we know they did it on purpose.

Yes, that's very logical. Cripple their economy and start a
woldwide pandemic which will further screw their own economy,
on purpose.




Maybe they
have zones of their nation they do not like. They are
vindictive that way, you know... Communist governments.

Right, they decided to destroy Wuhan, which rather than being
some rebel dissident area is actually one of their main
manufacturing hubs producing everything from steel to high
tech.

Wrong, always wrong. And no expanding to stupid conspiracy
theories.



If the end result is that we all die and they live and get to
restart after, their 'new economy' is all good for them from then
on, and we are all gone. No where to go but up from there except
now everyone has home town genes.

Maybe you have problems grasping bigger picture views that
folks
like that have.

No, it's just that I don't just make up bizarre conspiracy
theories that have zero factual basis.



You obviously do not know how they think, nor what they think of
us.

Irrelevant to making up crazy conspiracy theories. That's what the Russians
do.

Notice we illuminate them about their IP theft, and not
surprisingly nothing gets done about it for years running now.

Irrelevant to your conspiracy theory that China deliberately set loose
Covid to kill the world.

And Trump was in India embracing and clueing us in on how he is now
going to allow China's Huawei products into our network fabric
infrasctructures. It does not get more stupid than Donald John
Trump, other than maybe his son, but you pull a close second if you
don't think that nations like China and Russia do not have it in for
us. The KGB still exists and China has ALWAYS been against us and
has ALWAYS been hacking us since before we even put them on the world
stage by putting mfg facilities in places they now control. Now,
they have the biggest bank in the world.

All irrelevant.

They run over their own with tanks. And you think the scenario I
mentioned is beyond them because you have no grasp of how it could be
a tactic. I never said it was. I merely stated that it could be.

That is when you showed your fucktarded ignorance... again.

Wrong, always wrong. And now a conspiracy nut too.

 

[Bill Sloman]

On Sunday, March 1, 2020 at 4:06:43 AM UTC+11, Whoey Louie wrote:

On Friday, February 28, 2020 at 8:46:40 PM UTC-5, Jeff Liebermann wrote:
On Fri, 28 Feb 2020 09:35:52 -0800 (PST), Whoey Louie
trader4@optonline.net> wrote:

On Friday, February 28, 2020 at 12:10:13 PM UTC-5, Jeff Liebermann wrote:
On Fri, 28 Feb 2020 07:25:36 -0800 (PST), Whoey Louie
trader4@optonline.net> wrote:

Keep lying and denying. It's what you do best. Meanwhile claiming that
the death rate is 20% puts you in the class of village idiot, no point
in further discussion on the issue. Funny too, Rick keeps calling me
an alarmist, but he allows your 20% BS lie to go unchallenged. You
two are quite a pair.

https://plague.com
83,867 confirmed cases
2,887 deaths
36,686 recovered

2,887 / 83,867 = 3.4% death rate
36,686 / 83,867 = 43.7% recovered

The 40% difference between the two precentages are those that are
currently ill, where there is no current determination as to whether
they will recover or die. With that large and uncertainty, the death
rate can be any number between 3.4% and 43.4%.

Oh, BS.

Please note that I didn't specify a death rate except to suggest that
it could be anywhere between 3.4% and 43.4% using the above numbers.

And health officials around the world, CDC, etc say it's around 2%.

Whoey Louie keeps on making this claim, but he never provides a link to any specific site, and ignores the fact that sites that discuss the death rate in detail all agree that it's too early for us to be able to say very much..

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/

Not 43%. It's supported by two months of data, from many countries,
not just China.

Except that the data is incomplete, and probably misleading.

The Diamond Princess for example. About 700 infected,
6 deaths.

So far.

There will probably be more, but it could triple and
> it still would be less than 3%.

In Whoey Louie's ever-so-expert opinion.

If this was 43% fatal, the whole
scenario around the world would be totally different and it would
be obvious.

That 43% estimate was intentionally absurd, designed to satirise the sort of calculation that Whoey Louie is relying on (though he doesn't seem to realise it).

> There are also likely many uncounted cases, where people have mild symptoms, never hospitalized or detected and they recover.

There are certainly going to be some, but the clinical picture is that a Covid-19 infection is a good deal worse than seasonal flu, so it's unlikely to be a significant proportion of the infections. If you shift the mean of the distribution far enough to the deadly end to kill a lot more people than seasonal flu does, you get a lot fewer people being mildly sick.

This is a pity, because if a significant proportion of the population got and beat it, they wouldn't be potential carriers.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

 

[Bill Sloman]

On Sunday, March 1, 2020 at 6:22:14 AM UTC+11, Rick C wrote:

On Saturday, February 29, 2020 at 1:58:39 PM UTC-5, Jeff Liebermann wrote:

This caught my attention:
Age, Sex, Existing Conditions of COVID-19 Cases and Deaths
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/
Looks like the elderly (like me) are much more at risk of dying than
the young. Same with those with pre-existing conditions (like me).

WHO and China CDC apparently reached some kind of agreement and
published a joint report.
https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/who-china-joint-mission-on-covid-19-final-report.pdf
Lots of pretty graphs and what seems like useful information. Reading
the section on "Zoonotic Origins" (transmitted from animals to humans)
via the Huanan Wholesale Seafood Market. It's odd that the exact
source hasn't been identified yet.

How exactly would you expect this to be determined?

Find an animal carrying the virus. Ideally, a community of animals which were being harvested for the Huanan Wholesale Seafood Market.

I was watching some of Trump's press conference on COVID-19 and he seems to be playing hard on the idea that "most" (meaning 80%) will only have light symptoms. So he is ignoring the 20% who will have severe symptoms and require hospital care, which will likely overwhelm our hospitals if this thing takes off like in China.

I'm hoping we can keep a lid on it. Otherwise it is going to really mess up the economy for months.

Consumer goods not being made in China and shipped to America is going to mess up the US economy anyway. A pandemic would be a whole lot worse.

The longer we have to develop a vaccine, the better the chance of avoiding a pandemic, but development, testing (one potential vaccine is already being tested on ferrets), high volume manufacture and distribution is going to take some time.

Trump's defunding of the US CDC is going to be a rather more obvious failure of judgement than it was when he did it.

It's not the kind of thing that his rusted-on supporters will be be able to comprehend - John Larkin comes to mind - but it may cost him a few votes if he survives the epidemic.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

 

[Bill Sloman]

On Sunday, March 1, 2020 at 5:58:39 AM UTC+11, Jeff Liebermann wrote:

On Fri, 28 Feb 2020 18:19:10 -0800 (PST), Bill Sloman
bill.sloman@ieee.org> wrote:

On Saturday, February 29, 2020 at 4:10:13 AM UTC+11, Jeff Liebermann wrote:
On Fri, 28 Feb 2020 07:25:36 -0800 (PST), Whoey Louie
trader4@optonline.net> wrote:

Keep lying and denying. It's what you do best. Meanwhile claiming that
the death rate is 20% puts you in the class of village idiot, no point
in further discussion on the issue. Funny too, Rick keeps calling me
an alarmist, but he allows your 20% BS lie to go unchallenged. You
two are quite a pair.

https://plague.com

Doesn't load.

It loads just fine in several browsers on 4 different devices.

Not for me it doesn't. I just get a couple of vertical blue bars in the middle of the screen, whose lengths decrease and increase.

No clue why it might not be working. Maybe a government conspiracy to
deprive citizens of their right to information?

I'm still using Firefox as my browser.

Here's the data repository:
https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19
which includes a list of other data sources. Might be interesting to
compare these.

<snip>

The 40% difference between the two percentages are those that are
currently ill, where there is no current determination as to whether
they will recover or die. With that large and uncertainty, the death
rate can be any number between 3.4% and 43.4%.

The Chinese figures suggest that about 20% of those that still ill
are serious or critical, which is about 7000 people. Some of those
are going to die. If half of them did it would push the death rate
up to 8%.

That isn't any kind of reliable estimate either.

It's good enough for now. I'll spare you my guess(tm) as to what the
future holds as it's less reliable than most estimates.

Note the graph in the lower right showing an increasing rate of
recovery.

Probably reflecting the fact that the early cases had to be pretty
sick to get noticed and tested, and were correspondingly more likely to die.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/
gives a more sophisticated discussion, which does go into that kind of
problem.

Yep. I mentioned that in another of posting in this thread. The
first link is a warning to not use simplistic number juggling (like
we're doing now) to derive a mortality rate:
https://smw.ch/article/doi/smw.2020.20203

However, I beg to differ on the possibility of early cases not being
noticed. The number of initial cases are too small to have much of an
effect on the much larger current number. At worst, there would be
some uncertainty at the beginning of the graphs, but not much effect
when diluted into the current trends.

I'm game to argue that Covid-19 is worse than seasonal flu. What got it noticed was that it killed people, so the proportion of people who got it and didn't notice it will have been whole lot lower than it is with seasonal flu.

This caught my attention:
Age, Sex, Existing Conditions of COVID-19 Cases and Deaths
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/
Looks like the elderly (like me) are much more at risk of dying than
the young. Same with those with pre-existing conditions (like me).

At 77, I share that anxiety.

WHO and China CDC apparently reached some kind of agreement and
published a joint report.
https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/who-china-joint-mission-on-covid-19-final-report.pdf
Lots of pretty graphs and what seems like useful information.

Agree.

Reading
the section on "Zoonotic Origins" (transmitted from animals to humans)
via the Huanan Wholesale Seafood Market. It's odd that the exact
source hasn't been identified yet.

If you clean out the market before you start looking, you are pretty much guaranteed to have destroyed the "original source" in the process.

The virus genome tells us the original source was bats. I've seen speculation about pangolin's being an intermediate host, but nothing that looked a confirmation of that speculation.

--
Bill Sloman, Sytdney

 

[Jeff Liebermann]

On Sat, 29 Feb 2020 11:22:08 -0800 (PST), Rick C
<gnuarm.deletethisbit@gmail.com> wrote:

On Saturday, February 29, 2020 at 1:58:39 PM UTC-5, Jeff Liebermann wrote:

This caught my attention:
Age, Sex, Existing Conditions of COVID-19 Cases and Deaths
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/
Looks like the elderly (like me) are much more at risk of dying than
the young. Same with those with pre-existing conditions (like me).

WHO and China CDC apparently reached some kind of agreement and
published a joint report.
https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/who-china-joint-mission-on-covid-19-final-report.pdf
Lots of pretty graphs and what seems like useful information. Reading
the section on "Zoonotic Origins" (transmitted from animals to humans)
via the Huanan Wholesale Seafood Market. It's odd that the exact
source hasn't been identified yet.

How exactly would you expect this to be determined?

1. Obtain a list of people who have been infected and were known
customers at the fish market. Since it's a wholesale fish market, I
assume most of those will be businesses, restaurants, processors, etc.
2. The fish market should have a list of transactions, purchases,
orders, customers, suppliers, etc.
3. If the victims are still alive, interrogate them as to what they
ate that was made from fish.
4. If the victims are dead or too sick to answer, ask the relatives
the same question.
5. Associating cause and effect is done by building a suitable
database of probable sources, probable fish types, timing, and victims
reports.

Please note that I am not able to provide more than a probable
connection. If you want to know exactly, as in 100% certainty, how
the infection spread, methinks you are asking me for something
unrealistic and impossible to produce. What I provided is my best
guess(tm) based upon available information, which is admittedly not
particularly accurate. If you insist on 100% accuracy, may I suggest
a vacation in Wuhan and obtain numbers and procedures suitable for
your level of acceptable certainty.

I was watching some of Trump's press conference on COVID-19 and
he seems to be playing hard on the idea that "most" (meaning 80%)
will only have light symptoms. So he is ignoring the 20% who
will have severe symptoms and require hospital care, which will
likely overwhelm our hospitals if this thing takes off like in China.

I suspect it will be worse than that. The problems in the US are:

1. We will not tolerate the draconian measures that China has imposed
to restrict the spread of the virus. For example, closing down almost
all means of transport for a month (or more) could cause rioting
in the streets, widespread looting, supply deficiencies, and
other shortages.

2. Medicine is expensive in the US. The hospitals are not going
to provide a moratorium on billing victims, agencies (Medicare),
and insurance companies. If the virus doesn't kill the victims,
it will likely bankrupt them.

3. Efforts to contain the virus in China seems to be well organized.
Efforts in the US have begun by immediately sabotaging the effort
by appointing an unqualified politician to head the organization.
At the very least, it should have been someone with medical and
public health program experience.

4. Public agencies and service organizations seem to be doing little
to prepare for a loss of personnel. For example, the US Post Office
continues an obviously failed "consolidated casing" experimental
program to reduce sorting and delivery costs at the expense of
reliability and delivery speed:
<http://www.sanjoseinside.com/2020/02/27/south-bay-letter-carriers-say-mail-problems-linked-to-usps-cost-cutting-experiment/>

I'm hoping we can keep a lid on it. Otherwise it is going to
really mess up the economy for months.

Yep. Our economy runs on inertia and positive feedback. That makes
the economy rather unstable. The main indicator of a functional
economy is the stock market, which is already beginning to show signs
of reduced optimism. The potential financial mess is not going to be
pretty.

Just for fun, what might happen if we have a lockdown in the middle of
the November presidential election? Only vote online or by mail might
work. Maybe deliver the ballots by drone? Those least likely to
vote in past elections, are also least likely to vote this year. Not
a problem because we can just ignore the popular vote and rely solely
on the Electoral College vote. We're doing that now anyway. Of
course, this would only be for the duration of the emergency, which I
suspect will never end, just like the "War on Terrorism". Sigh, it's
really becoming difficult to be optimistic.


--
Jeff Liebermann jeffl@cruzio.com
150 Felker St #D http://www.LearnByDestroying.com
Santa Cruz CA 95060 http://802.11junk.com
Skype: JeffLiebermann AE6KS 831-336-2558

 

[Jeff Liebermann]

On Sat, 29 Feb 2020 14:27:27 -0800 (PST), Bill Sloman
<bill.sloman@ieee.org> wrote:

https://plague.com
Doesn't load.
It loads just fine in several browsers on 4 different devices.

Not for me it doesn't. I just get a couple of vertical blue bars
in the middle of the screen, whose lengths decrease and increase.

Try these instead:
(Desktop)
<https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6>
(Mobile)
<https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/85320e2ea5424dfaaa75ae62e5c06e61>

>I'm still using Firefox as my browser.

Do you want help figuring out why you can't see the web page?
If so, can you do a little better than "a couple of vertical blue
bars" and the name of your web browser? Anyway, try the above links,
a different computer, or some other device with a web browser.

Reading
the section on "Zoonotic Origins" (transmitted from animals to humans)
via the Huanan Wholesale Seafood Market. It's odd that the exact
source hasn't been identified yet.

If you clean out the market before you start looking, you
are pretty much guaranteed to have destroyed the "original
source" in the process.

That suggests that it would be possible for the owners of the fish
market to clean up sufficiently to purge the area from coronavirus.
Yet, us members of the great unwashed masses are unable to do the
same? I don't think so. However, in a different way, you're correct.
I suspect the Chinese would be more interested in stopping and
crushing the contagion, than in investigating trace evidence about its
origin. So, they flood the place with chlorine bleach, which might
not be totally effective but will probably help. However, it should
be possible to correlate the victims with supplier, vendor, customer,
and sales lists and not need any biological evidence.

The virus genome tells us the original source was bats. I've seen
speculation about pangolin's being an intermediate host, but
nothing that looked a confirmation of that speculation.

Coronavirus Outbreak Emerged from Bats, Genomic Findings Suggest
<https://www.genengnews.com/news/coronavirus-outbreak-emerged-from-bats-genomic-findings-suggest/>
Now, all we need is to determine how bat droppings (guano) ended up in
the fish.

Looking at the Wuhan South China Seafood Wholesale Market on Google
Maps, I notice that it's 150ft from the Wuhan Youfu Hospital:
<https://goo.gl/maps/uXMvU9DqTTg1QLsa9>
A hospital would seem to be a likely starting place for a bat
originated infection, delivered by the adjacent fish market.



--
Jeff Liebermann jeffl@cruzio.com
150 Felker St #D http://www.LearnByDestroying.com
Santa Cruz CA 95060 http://802.11junk.com
Skype: JeffLiebermann AE6KS 831-336-2558

 

[Bill Sloman]

On Sunday, March 1, 2020 at 3:51:24 AM UTC+11, Whoey Louie wrote:

On Friday, February 28, 2020 at 5:25:47 PM UTC-5, DecadentLinux...@decadence.org wrote:
Whoey Louie <trader4@optonline.net> wrote in
news:93867bf8-0ac7-4853-8125-d6d5f5fb635f@googlegroups.com:

On Friday, February 28, 2020 at 12:52:09 PM UTC-5,
DecadentLinux...@decadence.org wrote:
edward.ming.lee@gmail.com wrote in
news:039d70f3-dc1a-4c4f-b7f8-07ee58bf23fc@googlegroups.com:

<snip>

If the end result is that we all die and they live and get to
restart after, their 'new economy' is all good for them from then on,
and we are all gone. No where to go but up from there except now
everyone has home town genes.

Maybe you have problems grasping bigger picture views that folks
like that have.

No, it's just that I don't just make up bizarre conspiracy theories
that have zero factual basis.

Whoey Louie really hasn't got the capacity to make up a bizarre (or even a mundnane) conspiracy theory, but - by the same token - he hasn't got the capacity to recognise one when he runs into it, so he'll take it seriously and pass it on.

His idea of a "factual basis" is what all the other idiots claim to believe.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

 

[Rick C]

On Saturday, February 29, 2020 at 5:26:48 PM UTC-5, Jeff Liebermann wrote:

On Sat, 29 Feb 2020 11:22:08 -0800 (PST), Rick C
gnuarm.deletethisbit@gmail.com> wrote:

On Saturday, February 29, 2020 at 1:58:39 PM UTC-5, Jeff Liebermann wrote:

This caught my attention:
Age, Sex, Existing Conditions of COVID-19 Cases and Deaths
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/
Looks like the elderly (like me) are much more at risk of dying than
the young. Same with those with pre-existing conditions (like me).

WHO and China CDC apparently reached some kind of agreement and
published a joint report.
https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/who-china-joint-mission-on-covid-19-final-report.pdf
Lots of pretty graphs and what seems like useful information. Reading
the section on "Zoonotic Origins" (transmitted from animals to humans)
via the Huanan Wholesale Seafood Market. It's odd that the exact
source hasn't been identified yet.

How exactly would you expect this to be determined?

1. Obtain a list of people who have been infected and were known
customers at the fish market. Since it's a wholesale fish market, I
assume most of those will be businesses, restaurants, processors, etc.
2. The fish market should have a list of transactions, purchases,
orders, customers, suppliers, etc.
3. If the victims are still alive, interrogate them as to what they
ate that was made from fish.
4. If the victims are dead or too sick to answer, ask the relatives
the same question.
5. Associating cause and effect is done by building a suitable
database of probable sources, probable fish types, timing, and victims
reports.

Please note that I am not able to provide more than a probable
connection. If you want to know exactly, as in 100% certainty, how
the infection spread, methinks you are asking me for something
unrealistic and impossible to produce. What I provided is my best
guess(tm) based upon available information, which is admittedly not
particularly accurate. If you insist on 100% accuracy, may I suggest
a vacation in Wuhan and obtain numbers and procedures suitable for
your level of acceptable certainty.

I'm not expecting anything. You made a statement and I'm asking how you might do that. Your response is exactly the sort of things that I'm sure they have done. That's why they suspect the fish market. Getting further into the details is hard. In fact, now I read they are starting to doubt the fish market theory.

I would also point out that no one has said this disease came from fish. At least I haven't heard anyone talk about fish. They've mentioned bats and pigs, both mammals. While a virus like this doesn't have to be infective in all mammals, it is much more likely to be infective in multiple mammals rather than a mammal and a fish.

I was watching some of Trump's press conference on COVID-19 and
he seems to be playing hard on the idea that "most" (meaning 80%)
will only have light symptoms. So he is ignoring the 20% who
will have severe symptoms and require hospital care, which will
likely overwhelm our hospitals if this thing takes off like in China.

I suspect it will be worse than that. The problems in the US are:

1. We will not tolerate the draconian measures that China has imposed
to restrict the spread of the virus. For example, closing down almost
all means of transport for a month (or more) could cause rioting
in the streets, widespread looting, supply deficiencies, and
other shortages.

I don't believe that for a moment. That is what marshal law is about and plagues are all about the government stepping in to take charge.

2. Medicine is expensive in the US. The hospitals are not going
to provide a moratorium on billing victims, agencies (Medicare),
and insurance companies. If the virus doesn't kill the victims,
it will likely bankrupt them.

That goes back to that UK TV show Torchwood where the medical system was overrun by the results of no one dying. This is an issue with any illness in the US. You get sick, you have to pay. It doesn't take a plague.

3. Efforts to contain the virus in China seems to be well organized.
Efforts in the US have begun by immediately sabotaging the effort
by appointing an unqualified politician to head the organization.
At the very least, it should have been someone with medical and
public health program experience.

You mean Pence? OJT! I'm sure he is a quick study.

4. Public agencies and service organizations seem to be doing little
to prepare for a loss of personnel. For example, the US Post Office
continues an obviously failed "consolidated casing" experimental
program to reduce sorting and delivery costs at the expense of
reliability and delivery speed:
http://www.sanjoseinside.com/2020/02/27/south-bay-letter-carriers-say-mail-problems-linked-to-usps-cost-cutting-experiment/

I'm hoping we can keep a lid on it. Otherwise it is going to
really mess up the economy for months.

Yep. Our economy runs on inertia and positive feedback. That makes
the economy rather unstable. The main indicator of a functional
economy is the stock market, which is already beginning to show signs
of reduced optimism. The potential financial mess is not going to be
pretty.

Just for fun, what might happen if we have a lockdown in the middle of
the November presidential election? Only vote online or by mail might
work. Maybe deliver the ballots by drone? Those least likely to
vote in past elections, are also least likely to vote this year. Not
a problem because we can just ignore the popular vote and rely solely
on the Electoral College vote. We're doing that now anyway. Of
course, this would only be for the duration of the emergency, which I
suspect will never end, just like the "War on Terrorism". Sigh, it's
really becoming difficult to be optimistic.

Or the war on drugs? Yeah, such wars don't have definitions so they can be won whenever it is convenient for those leading.

--

Rick C.

+--+ Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
+--+ Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

 

[Rick C]

On Saturday, February 29, 2020 at 5:27:32 PM UTC-5, Bill Sloman wrote:

On Sunday, March 1, 2020 at 5:58:39 AM UTC+11, Jeff Liebermann wrote:
On Fri, 28 Feb 2020 18:19:10 -0800 (PST), Bill Sloman
bill.sloman@ieee.org> wrote:

On Saturday, February 29, 2020 at 4:10:13 AM UTC+11, Jeff Liebermann wrote:
On Fri, 28 Feb 2020 07:25:36 -0800 (PST), Whoey Louie
trader4@optonline.net> wrote:

Keep lying and denying. It's what you do best. Meanwhile claiming that
the death rate is 20% puts you in the class of village idiot, no point
in further discussion on the issue. Funny too, Rick keeps calling me
an alarmist, but he allows your 20% BS lie to go unchallenged. You
two are quite a pair.

https://plague.com

Doesn't load.

It loads just fine in several browsers on 4 different devices.

Not for me it doesn't. I just get a couple of vertical blue bars in the middle of the screen, whose lengths decrease and increase.

No clue why it might not be working. Maybe a government conspiracy to
deprive citizens of their right to information?

I'm still using Firefox as my browser.

It loads fine for me in Firefox.


> I'm game to argue that Covid-19 is worse than seasonal flu. What got it noticed was that it killed people, so the proportion of people who got it and didn't notice it will have been whole lot lower than it is with seasonal flu.

What got it noticed was that it killed people and wasn't the flu!

--

Rick C.

+-+- Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
+-+- Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

 

[Bill Sloman]

On Sunday, March 1, 2020 at 10:25:15 AM UTC+11, Jeff Liebermann wrote:

On Sat, 29 Feb 2020 14:27:27 -0800 (PST), Bill Sloman
bill.sloman@ieee.org> wrote:

https://plague.com
Doesn't load.
It loads just fine in several browsers on 4 different devices.

Not for me it doesn't. I just get a couple of vertical blue bars
in the middle of the screen, whose lengths decrease and increase.

Try these instead:
(Desktop)
https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
(Mobile)
https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/85320e2ea5424dfaaa75ae62e5c06e61

Got the same blue bars for a few seconds, then the desired image showed up.

That suggests that it would be possible for the owners of the fish
market to clean up sufficiently to purge the area from coronavirus.

It didn't sell only sea-food. Apparently the Chinese have a taste for a variety of wild animals, and they were sold there too.

Yet, us members of the great unwashed masses are unable to do the
same? I don't think so. However, in a different way, you're correct.
I suspect the Chinese would be more interested in stopping and
crushing the contagion, than in investigating trace evidence about its
origin. So, they flood the place with chlorine bleach, which might
not be totally effective but will probably help. However, it should
be possible to correlate the victims with supplier, vendor, customer,
and sales lists and not need any biological evidence.

Perfectly true, and they should have been able to do. It's possible the regime is not enthusiastic about publicising the Chinese taste for eating strange wild animals.

The virus genome tells us the original source was bats. I've seen
speculation about pangolin's being an intermediate host, but
nothing that looked a confirmation of that speculation.

Coronavirus Outbreak Emerged from Bats, Genomic Findings Suggest
https://www.genengnews.com/news/coronavirus-outbreak-emerged-from-bats-genomic-findings-suggest/

Now, all we need is to determine how bat droppings (guano) ended up in
the fish.

That would be easy enough to explain if there were bats roosting in the roof of the fish market, but the original bat virus doesn't infect humans, and it may have taken an adaption to an intermediate host to give the virus that capability.

Looking at the Wuhan South China Seafood Wholesale Market on Google
Maps, I notice that it's 150ft from the Wuhan Youfu Hospital:
https://goo.gl/maps/uXMvU9DqTTg1QLsa9
A hospital would seem to be a likely starting place for a bat
originated infection, delivered by the adjacent fish market.

Sick bats getting treated in a human hospital? China is odd, but not that odd.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

 

[Jeff Liebermann]

On Sat, 29 Feb 2020 17:21:12 -0800 (PST), Bill Sloman
<bill.sloman@ieee.org> wrote:

It didn't sell only sea-food. Apparently the Chinese have a taste
for a variety of wild animals, and they were sold there too.

Never mind the wild animals on the menu. I would be worried about the
standard faire:
<http://www.learnbydestroying.com/jeffl/crud/china-menu.jpg>

--
Jeff Liebermann jeffl@cruzio.com
150 Felker St #D http://www.LearnByDestroying.com
Santa Cruz CA 95060 http://802.11junk.com
Skype: JeffLiebermann AE6KS 831-336-2558

 

[Jeff Liebermann]

On Sat, 29 Feb 2020 17:21:12 -0800 (PST), Bill Sloman
<bill.sloman@ieee.org> wrote:

Got the same blue bars for a few seconds, then the desired image
showed up.

Weird. However, now that it's working, don't change anything.

That suggests that it would be possible for the owners of the fish
market to clean up sufficiently to purge the area from coronavirus.

It didn't sell only sea-food. Apparently the Chinese have a taste
for a variety of wild animals, and they were sold there too.

Bush meat? Sure, but bats?
<https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bat_as_food#Asia>
Bat meat is not especially popular in China.[13][14][15]
It has been contested whether or not the Huanan Seafood
Wholesale Market, suspected as having ties with the
COVID-19 outbreak, sold bat meat,[16][17] but bat meat
has not been reported as a source of food in the city
of Wuhan.[18][19][20] International agencies pressured
China to adopt legislation forbidding the hunting of
bats and sale of bat meat following the early 2000s SARS
outbreak where hundreds of people died, though no such
legislation was passed.[1] All wildlife trade in China,
including bat meat, was banned in January 2020 in response
to the coronavirus outbreak originated in Wuhan.[21][22][23]

Maybe someone was trying to emulate Shakespeare?
Eye of newt, and toe of frog,
Wool of bat, and tongue of dog,
Adder's fork, and blind-worm's sting,
Lizard's leg, and owlet's wing,...

Yet, us members of the great unwashed masses are unable to do the
same? I don't think so. However, in a different way, you're correct.
I suspect the Chinese would be more interested in stopping and
crushing the contagion, than in investigating trace evidence about its
origin. So, they flood the place with chlorine bleach, which might
not be totally effective but will probably help. However, it should
be possible to correlate the victims with supplier, vendor, customer,
and sales lists and not need any biological evidence.

Perfectly true, and they should have been able to do. It's possible
the regime is not enthusiastic about publicising the Chinese taste
for eating strange wild animals.

I'm thinking along similar lines. The source should have been
traceable by now. Perhaps they discovered something during the
investigation that might panic the public? I think I have a tolerable
guess(tm). See below.

Now, all we need is to determine how bat droppings (guano) ended up in
the fish.

That would be easy enough to explain if there were bats roosting in
the roof of the fish market, but the original bat virus doesn't infect
humans, and it may have taken an adaption to an intermediate host
to give the virus that capability.

Occam's razor suggests that overly complexicated explanations are
often very wrong. Salvaging an overly complex explanation by adding
even more complexity is almost always wrong.

Looking at the Wuhan South China Seafood Wholesale Market on Google
Maps, I notice that it's 150ft from the Wuhan Youfu Hospital:
https://goo.gl/maps/uXMvU9DqTTg1QLsa9
A hospital would seem to be a likely starting place for a bat
originated infection, delivered by the adjacent fish market.

Sick bats getting treated in a human hospital? China is odd, but
not that odd.

Sorry, I should have been more specific. Sick human, in the hospital,
visits the fish market for some fast food, and contaminates everything
they touch in the market. Another possible is that the hospital
wasn't doing a great job of sanitation and had some contaminated waste
end up near the fish market. Or, someone was digging in the hospital
trash and removed some contaminated material before it could be
incinerated.

My guess(tm) is that the outbreak did NOT start at the fish market,
but rather at the nearby hospital. It's an easy enough mistake to
make when trying to backtrack the activities of the victims. If
that's what the investigation revealed, I can see why it would need to
be kept secret. Few in China would trust the hospitals if they were
that sloppy.

Hint: When some person or group does something inexplicable or out of
character, it is often useful to ask "What problem are they trying to
solve"? Delaying or withholding results to protect the reputation of
the hospital might be such a problem.


--
Jeff Liebermann jeffl@cruzio.com
150 Felker St #D http://www.LearnByDestroying.com
Santa Cruz CA 95060 http://802.11junk.com
Skype: JeffLiebermann AE6KS 831-336-2558