Better Rate of Growth Data

[Bill Sloman]

On Saturday, March 28, 2020 at 5:16:17 AM UTC+11, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:

On Fri, 27 Mar 2020 06:37:59 -0700 (PDT), dagmargoodboat@yahoo.com
wrote:

On Friday, March 27, 2020 at 2:54:58 AM UTC-4, whit3rd wrote:
On Thursday, March 26, 2020 at 8:33:59 PM UTC-7, dagmarg...@yahoo.com wrote:
On Thursday, March 26, 2020 at 3:10:32 PM UTC-4, whit3rd wrote:
On Thursday, March 26, 2020 at 9:29:08 AM UTC-7, dagmarg...@yahoo.com wrote:

<snip>

Those are all objective facts from public reporting. Weighing those
facts is not "paint[ing] fear," etc., it's common sense.

Common sense is old fashioned. Nuance has replaced it.

That particular example of "common sense" was actually a chunk of anti-communist political propaganda - more of the kind of fibbing and fudging that James Arthur has been practicing for years. There was nothing nuanced about it - Donald Trump goes in for bare-faced lying, and his supporters admire him for it. Imitation is the sincerest form of flattery. and Donald Trump is even more addicted to flattery than John Larkin.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

 

[Bill Sloman]

On Saturday, March 28, 2020 at 5:13:52 AM UTC+11, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:

On Thu, 26 Mar 2020 20:33:54 -0700 (PDT), dagmargoodboat@yahoo.com
wrote:

On Thursday, March 26, 2020 at 3:10:32 PM UTC-4, whit3rd wrote:
On Thursday, March 26, 2020 at 9:29:08 AM UTC-7, dagmarg...@yahoo.com wrote:

2) <quote>Chinese laboratories identified a mystery virus as a highly infectious new pathogen by late December last year, but they were ordered to stop tests, destroy samples and suppress the news...

Yeah, there's a few weeks with only dozens of patients and resistance to
the 'new disease' hypothesis. That didn't last.

I think you missed the part about "were ordered to stop tests, destroy
samples, and suppress the news..."

Also, they denied there was human transmission, well after it was amply
established.

The China response and their
sharing of information with the rest of the world was prompt and seems
complete. The 'some Wuhan authorities' have been disciplined, for the
health of the nation (of China), and that's probably for the best.

The idea that data from China 'doesn't make sense' is a laugh, why would early stages
of an epidemic EVER give complete and useful knowledge? The early-months data from Italy, Korea, Japan, etc. aren't completely informative, either.

It's hard to trust people who fudged and fibbed, that's John's point.

I don't trust the current claims that there are 93 new cases some
days, zero some others. They reported zero for a couple of weeks of
March. That's absurd.

The claim is that most of their new cases are Chinese who have flown home from places where Covid-19 is circulating. A plane load of passengers from Italy might deliver 93 new cases in one hit.

The absurdity is all in your mindless incomprehension what's actually going on.

> >They've consistently worked hard to minimize and understate.

There as a brief period - early in the Wuhan outbreak where the local administration tried to sweep the problem under the rug. James Arthur's enthusiasm for generating anti-communist propaganda has lead him to try to exaggerate this into a criticism of the adminstratio9n of the entire country, which is the kind of fibbing and fudging he goes in for far too frequently.

> >If they've under-reported infections, that changes the case fatality rates the world's panicked over.

Sadly, that's what happens early in an epidemic.

We are now getting pretty horrible case fatality rates out of Italy, and the US debacle promises more.

Once you have enough serious and critical cases to overload your hospital system, many more people die from what should have been bad - but survivable - infections.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

 

[Tom Gardner]

On 28/03/20 03:15, Bill Sloman wrote:

Trump has been persistent in praising himself for his performance, but that
never stops, and has nothing to do with the quality of his performance.

I haven't seen the US version of "The Apprentice", but
that behaviour is exactly what is seen in the UK version
when the empty shirts are either beating their chests or
pleading not to be fired.

The US has an apprentice president, unfortunately.

 

[Martin Brown]

On 26/03/2020 16:37, Phil Hobbs wrote:

On 2020-03-25 23:34, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Wed, 25 Mar 2020 11:37:19 -0700 (PDT), dagmargoodboat@yahoo.com
wrote:

On Wednesday, March 25, 2020 at 2:02:06 PM UTC-4, Rick C wrote:
I have been collecting the data from the CDC which is dated to the
estimated time of infection.  This data shows new infections being
attributed to dates up to a month ago.  This both raises the numbers
for older data and lowers the numbers for newer data.  It also
invalidates the newest data as being incomplete.

Constructing a graph from the most recent curve up to the peak
infection rate gives a very consistent exponential line with a slope
of 0.19.  I will note this number and update it each day as the CDC
releases new data.  The data peak is 3/13 for data of 3/24 and has
moved from 3/9 in data dated 3/19.

Unfortunately this method has a much longer lag time from actions to
fight this disease.

--

   Rick C.

   - Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
   - Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

I've been following it. It is and has been growing at almost
exactly 1.34x per day in the U.S. for the past 15 days. The U.K.
growth rate is also very consistent, but considerably lower. Weird.

Take a look at the incredibly low Japanese rate of growth. They *DO* not
have any lockdown at all yet but they are on the edge of losing it now.

They are just so much better at following government advice. And always
wear a mask when they go out and have any kind of illness.

These are quite an interesting and worrying set of graphs - scroll down
to "world" to see the comparison of USA with Japan and Italy:

http://nrg.cs.ucl.ac.uk/mjh/covid19/#wn

Most of our infections are in New York, and nearly all of
the spread is from New Yorkers fleeing to Florida and
probably also visiting New Orleans' Mardi Gras, leaving
a swath of WuFlu as they go.

James Arthur


https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/coronavirus/bahrain-hydroxychloroquine-success-response-covid-19

https://nypost.com/2020/03/24/nevada-governor-bans-malaria-drugs-for-coronavirus-patients/


Does this virus cause insanity? Mild cases, just stupidity?

He climbed down, claiming that it's only permitted for inpatients, so
that worried folks don't hoard it all.  A friend of my daughter's has
rheumatoid arthritis, and is having trouble getting her Plaquenil
prescription filled.

That Ferguson guy from Imperial College has now drastically reduced his
(previously apocalyptic) mortality estimates:

https://www.newscientist.com/article/2238578-uk-has-enough-intensive-care-units-for-coronavirus-expert-predicts/

But that is on the basis of the now nearly complete lockdown in the UK
breaking the chain of transmission. Left unchecked the number of
infected people and the dead body count is increasing by 1.3x per day.
It will be at least another week before the graph starts to alter.
(people dying now have been lingering on life support for a fortnight)

New York is now only a day behind the entire of the UK for the number of
people who succumb to coronavirus. USA is running slight ahead of the
trajectory of Italy but 35% daily increase is pretty close.

BTW that Oxford paper is complete and utter crap. It has been debunked
now and got dishonourable mention on BBC R4 programme "Inside Science"
this week. They are giving the authors the benefit of the doubt that
they did genuinely believe what they had written.

--
Regards,
Martin Brown

 

[Flyguy]

On Friday, March 27, 2020 at 8:15:42 PM UTC-7, Bill Sloman wrote:

On Saturday, March 28, 2020 at 12:27:46 AM UTC+11, dagmarg...@yahoo.com wrote:
On Friday, March 27, 2020 at 5:50:17 AM UTC-4, Tom Gardner wrote:
On 27/03/20 03:33, dagmargoodboat@yahoo.com wrote:
It's hard to trust people who fudged and fibbed, that's John's point.

They've consistently worked hard to minimize and understate. If they've
under-reported infections, that changes the case fatality rates the
world's panicked over.

Sorry, are you talking about China or the Trump administration?

China. They destroyed samples, suppressed the news, and were telling
the world it wasn't contagious when they knew it was.

Briefly, early on. The twits that did it seem likely to be punsiehd for it.

The Trump administrations been brilliant, ankle-biters notwithstanding.

James Arthur would think that. The US now has more case than China, despite having been warned in advance, and having Italy as an example of what happens if you don't go in for social isolation early on, and South Korea's example demonstrating that fanatical contact tracing and isolation of all possible contacts really does work.

The Trump adminstation is up there with the ayatollahs in Iran as the people who have he done worst job of coping with the epidemic.

Trump has been persistent in praising himself for his performance, but that never stops, and has nothing to do with the quality of his performance.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

Correction: the US has more REPORTED cases than China; the REAL number of cases in China is unknown, but is MUCH larger than what they are reporting. See my post on the disconnection of 21 million cell phones.

 

[Rick C]

On Saturday, March 28, 2020 at 6:10:40 PM UTC-4, Flyguy wrote:

On Saturday, March 28, 2020 at 2:55:41 PM UTC-7, Rick C wrote:
On Saturday, March 28, 2020 at 5:25:38 PM UTC-4, Flyguy wrote:
On Friday, March 27, 2020 at 8:15:42 PM UTC-7, Bill Sloman wrote:
On Saturday, March 28, 2020 at 12:27:46 AM UTC+11, dagmarg...@yahoo..com wrote:
On Friday, March 27, 2020 at 5:50:17 AM UTC-4, Tom Gardner wrote:
On 27/03/20 03:33, dagmargoodboat@yahoo.com wrote:
It's hard to trust people who fudged and fibbed, that's John's point.

They've consistently worked hard to minimize and understate. If they've
under-reported infections, that changes the case fatality rates the
world's panicked over.

Sorry, are you talking about China or the Trump administration?

China. They destroyed samples, suppressed the news, and were telling
the world it wasn't contagious when they knew it was.

Briefly, early on. The twits that did it seem likely to be punsiehd for it.

The Trump administrations been brilliant, ankle-biters notwithstanding.

James Arthur would think that. The US now has more case than China, despite having been warned in advance, and having Italy as an example of what happens if you don't go in for social isolation early on, and South Korea's example demonstrating that fanatical contact tracing and isolation of all possible contacts really does work.

The Trump adminstation is up there with the ayatollahs in Iran as the people who have he done worst job of coping with the epidemic.

Trump has been persistent in praising himself for his performance, but that never stops, and has nothing to do with the quality of his performance.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

Correction: the US has more REPORTED cases than China; the REAL number of cases in China is unknown, but is MUCH larger than what they are reporting. See my post on the disconnection of 21 million cell phones.

The real number of cases in the US is unknown and likely MUCH larger than what is reported. The point is that the exact number doesn't matter. The issue is that China has the rate of new infection and deaths under control. The US clearly does not.

The US situation is the worst of any place on this earth. We did not put enough emphasis on isolation as in "Don't Go To Work!" rather than easing into it a little at a time. So now our infection rates are high and continuing to get higher. Maybe in another week when we are over 500,000 infected we might get this more under control. There is a small chance we will peak by Easter, but that's not the signal to relax isolation. Reports of hospitals being overwhelmed in multiple cities will probably start to have an impact on people so they take this seriously. Maybe even Larkin... no, let's not get crazy here.

--

Rick C.

+-+ Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
+-+ Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

I should have said "real KNOWN cases" rather than "real cases." Obviously, the CDC is reporting CONFIRMED cases, which is expected to grow rapidly as testing becomes more widely available. Data from China is highly suspect and does not match corroborating data like cell phone disconnects.

I'm not going to get into that nonsense. The bottom line is there is no reason to dispute the numbers from China unless you believe literally everything they tell us is a lie including that they are reopening Wuhan.

Jeez, some people are so gullible they won't believe anything.

--

Rick C.

++- Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
++- Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

 

[Flyguy]

On Saturday, March 28, 2020 at 2:55:41 PM UTC-7, Rick C wrote:

On Saturday, March 28, 2020 at 5:25:38 PM UTC-4, Flyguy wrote:
On Friday, March 27, 2020 at 8:15:42 PM UTC-7, Bill Sloman wrote:
On Saturday, March 28, 2020 at 12:27:46 AM UTC+11, dagmarg...@yahoo.com wrote:
On Friday, March 27, 2020 at 5:50:17 AM UTC-4, Tom Gardner wrote:
On 27/03/20 03:33, dagmargoodboat@yahoo.com wrote:
It's hard to trust people who fudged and fibbed, that's John's point.

They've consistently worked hard to minimize and understate. If they've
under-reported infections, that changes the case fatality rates the
world's panicked over.

Sorry, are you talking about China or the Trump administration?

China. They destroyed samples, suppressed the news, and were telling
the world it wasn't contagious when they knew it was.

Briefly, early on. The twits that did it seem likely to be punsiehd for it.

The Trump administrations been brilliant, ankle-biters notwithstanding.

James Arthur would think that. The US now has more case than China, despite having been warned in advance, and having Italy as an example of what happens if you don't go in for social isolation early on, and South Korea's example demonstrating that fanatical contact tracing and isolation of all possible contacts really does work.

The Trump adminstation is up there with the ayatollahs in Iran as the people who have he done worst job of coping with the epidemic.

Trump has been persistent in praising himself for his performance, but that never stops, and has nothing to do with the quality of his performance.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

Correction: the US has more REPORTED cases than China; the REAL number of cases in China is unknown, but is MUCH larger than what they are reporting. See my post on the disconnection of 21 million cell phones.

The real number of cases in the US is unknown and likely MUCH larger than what is reported. The point is that the exact number doesn't matter. The issue is that China has the rate of new infection and deaths under control.. The US clearly does not.

The US situation is the worst of any place on this earth. We did not put enough emphasis on isolation as in "Don't Go To Work!" rather than easing into it a little at a time. So now our infection rates are high and continuing to get higher. Maybe in another week when we are over 500,000 infected we might get this more under control. There is a small chance we will peak by Easter, but that's not the signal to relax isolation. Reports of hospitals being overwhelmed in multiple cities will probably start to have an impact on people so they take this seriously. Maybe even Larkin... no, let's not get crazy here.

--

Rick C.

+-+ Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
+-+ Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

I should have said "real KNOWN cases" rather than "real cases." Obviously, the CDC is reporting CONFIRMED cases, which is expected to grow rapidly as testing becomes more widely available. Data from China is highly suspect and does not match corroborating data like cell phone disconnects.

 

[Rick C]

On Saturday, March 28, 2020 at 5:25:38 PM UTC-4, Flyguy wrote:

On Friday, March 27, 2020 at 8:15:42 PM UTC-7, Bill Sloman wrote:
On Saturday, March 28, 2020 at 12:27:46 AM UTC+11, dagmarg...@yahoo.com wrote:
On Friday, March 27, 2020 at 5:50:17 AM UTC-4, Tom Gardner wrote:
On 27/03/20 03:33, dagmargoodboat@yahoo.com wrote:
It's hard to trust people who fudged and fibbed, that's John's point.

They've consistently worked hard to minimize and understate. If they've
under-reported infections, that changes the case fatality rates the
world's panicked over.

Sorry, are you talking about China or the Trump administration?

China. They destroyed samples, suppressed the news, and were telling
the world it wasn't contagious when they knew it was.

Briefly, early on. The twits that did it seem likely to be punsiehd for it.

The Trump administrations been brilliant, ankle-biters notwithstanding.

James Arthur would think that. The US now has more case than China, despite having been warned in advance, and having Italy as an example of what happens if you don't go in for social isolation early on, and South Korea's example demonstrating that fanatical contact tracing and isolation of all possible contacts really does work.

The Trump adminstation is up there with the ayatollahs in Iran as the people who have he done worst job of coping with the epidemic.

Trump has been persistent in praising himself for his performance, but that never stops, and has nothing to do with the quality of his performance..

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

Correction: the US has more REPORTED cases than China; the REAL number of cases in China is unknown, but is MUCH larger than what they are reporting.. See my post on the disconnection of 21 million cell phones.

The real number of cases in the US is unknown and likely MUCH larger than what is reported. The point is that the exact number doesn't matter. The issue is that China has the rate of new infection and deaths under control. The US clearly does not.

The US situation is the worst of any place on this earth. We did not put enough emphasis on isolation as in "Don't Go To Work!" rather than easing into it a little at a time. So now our infection rates are high and continuing to get higher. Maybe in another week when we are over 500,000 infected we might get this more under control. There is a small chance we will peak by Easter, but that's not the signal to relax isolation. Reports of hospitals being overwhelmed in multiple cities will probably start to have an impact on people so they take this seriously. Maybe even Larkin... no, let's not get crazy here.

--

Rick C.

+-+ Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
+-+ Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

 

[Clifford Heath]

On 29/3/20 7:17 am, Martin Brown wrote:

On 26/03/2020 16:37, Phil Hobbs wrote:
Take a look at the incredibly low Japanese rate of growth. They *DO* not
have any lockdown at all yet but they are on the edge of losing it now.

They are just so much better at following government advice. And always
wear a mask when they go out and have any kind of illness.

Most of the Japanese culture is built around a single idea: "Don't make
a nuisance of yourself". So opposite from America: "Exercise and fight
for your right to be as much of a dickhead as you can be without getting
arrested, shot or sued". And from Australia: "Disbelieve and undermine
(on principle) anything told you by anyone in authority".

CH

 

[Tom Gardner]

On 28/03/20 20:17, Martin Brown wrote:

These are quite an interesting and worrying set of graphs - scroll down to
"world" to see the comparison of USA with Japan and Italy:

http://nrg.cs.ucl.ac.uk/mjh/covid19/#wn

Thanks for those graphs; I've been waiting for
somebody with the raw data to plot them.

Recommended.

 

[Flyguy]

On Saturday, March 28, 2020 at 3:22:40 PM UTC-7, Rick C wrote:

On Saturday, March 28, 2020 at 6:10:40 PM UTC-4, Flyguy wrote:
On Saturday, March 28, 2020 at 2:55:41 PM UTC-7, Rick C wrote:
On Saturday, March 28, 2020 at 5:25:38 PM UTC-4, Flyguy wrote:
On Friday, March 27, 2020 at 8:15:42 PM UTC-7, Bill Sloman wrote:
On Saturday, March 28, 2020 at 12:27:46 AM UTC+11, dagmarg...@yahoo.com wrote:
On Friday, March 27, 2020 at 5:50:17 AM UTC-4, Tom Gardner wrote:
On 27/03/20 03:33, dagmargoodboat@yahoo.com wrote:
It's hard to trust people who fudged and fibbed, that's John's point.

They've consistently worked hard to minimize and understate.. If they've
under-reported infections, that changes the case fatality rates the
world's panicked over.

Sorry, are you talking about China or the Trump administration?

China. They destroyed samples, suppressed the news, and were telling
the world it wasn't contagious when they knew it was.

Briefly, early on. The twits that did it seem likely to be punsiehd for it.

The Trump administrations been brilliant, ankle-biters notwithstanding.

James Arthur would think that. The US now has more case than China, despite having been warned in advance, and having Italy as an example of what happens if you don't go in for social isolation early on, and South Korea's example demonstrating that fanatical contact tracing and isolation of all possible contacts really does work.

The Trump adminstation is up there with the ayatollahs in Iran as the people who have he done worst job of coping with the epidemic.

Trump has been persistent in praising himself for his performance, but that never stops, and has nothing to do with the quality of his performance.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

Correction: the US has more REPORTED cases than China; the REAL number of cases in China is unknown, but is MUCH larger than what they are reporting. See my post on the disconnection of 21 million cell phones.

The real number of cases in the US is unknown and likely MUCH larger than what is reported. The point is that the exact number doesn't matter. The issue is that China has the rate of new infection and deaths under control. The US clearly does not.

The US situation is the worst of any place on this earth. We did not put enough emphasis on isolation as in "Don't Go To Work!" rather than easing into it a little at a time. So now our infection rates are high and continuing to get higher. Maybe in another week when we are over 500,000 infected we might get this more under control. There is a small chance we will peak by Easter, but that's not the signal to relax isolation. Reports of hospitals being overwhelmed in multiple cities will probably start to have an impact on people so they take this seriously. Maybe even Larkin... no, let's not get crazy here.

--

Rick C.

+-+ Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
+-+ Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

I should have said "real KNOWN cases" rather than "real cases." Obviously, the CDC is reporting CONFIRMED cases, which is expected to grow rapidly as testing becomes more widely available. Data from China is highly suspect and does not match corroborating data like cell phone disconnects.

I'm not going to get into that nonsense. The bottom line is there is no reason to dispute the numbers from China unless you believe literally everything they tell us is a lie including that they are reopening Wuhan.

Jeez, some people are so gullible they won't believe anything.

--

Rick C.

++- Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
++- Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

That's right: I LITERALLY believe that China is lying to us and the rest of the world; why change your stripes at this point in the game?

 

[Bill Sloman]

On Sunday, March 29, 2020 at 8:25:38 AM UTC+11, Flyguy wrote:

On Friday, March 27, 2020 at 8:15:42 PM UTC-7, Bill Sloman wrote:
On Saturday, March 28, 2020 at 12:27:46 AM UTC+11, dagmarg...@yahoo.com wrote:
On Friday, March 27, 2020 at 5:50:17 AM UTC-4, Tom Gardner wrote:
On 27/03/20 03:33, dagmargoodboat@yahoo.com wrote:
It's hard to trust people who fudged and fibbed, that's John's point.

They've consistently worked hard to minimize and understate. If they've
under-reported infections, that changes the case fatality rates the
world's panicked over.

Sorry, are you talking about China or the Trump administration?

China. They destroyed samples, suppressed the news, and were telling
the world it wasn't contagious when they knew it was.

Briefly, early on. The twits that did it seem likely to be punsiehd for it.

The Trump administrations been brilliant, ankle-biters notwithstanding.

James Arthur would think that. The US now has more case than China, despite having been warned in advance, and having Italy as an example of what happens if you don't go in for social isolation early on, and South Korea's example demonstrating that fanatical contact tracing and isolation of all possible contacts really does work.

The Trump adminstation is up there with the ayatollahs in Iran as the people who have he done worst job of coping with the epidemic.

Trump has been persistent in praising himself for his performance, but that never stops, and has nothing to do with the quality of his performance..

Correction: the US has more REPORTED cases than China; the REAL number of cases in China is unknown, but is MUCH larger than what they are reporting..

The real number of case in China probably is higher than the reported cases - if you get a mild case and don't take it to the doctor, how is it going tog et reported.

The claim that it is much higher is pure conspiracy theory nitwit speculation.

> See my post on the disconnection of 21 million cell phones.

There are other explanations for that. China seems to have moved to making it a rule that you only have one cell phone and use it wherever you are, so the government knows exactly where you are.

Chinese migrant worked used to have two cell phones - one for making local calls where they worked and the other for making local calls when they were at home. If all those second phone had got retired, you've got your explanation.

Not one that any rabid conspiracy theory nut would want to pay any attention to, but still plausible.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

 

[Bill Sloman]

On Sunday, March 29, 2020 at 11:46:27 AM UTC+11, Tom Gardner wrote:

On 28/03/20 20:17, Martin Brown wrote:
These are quite an interesting and worrying set of graphs - scroll down to
"world" to see the comparison of USA with Japan and Italy:

http://nrg.cs.ucl.ac.uk/mjh/covid19/#wn

Thanks for those graphs; I've been waiting for
somebody with the raw data to plot them.

Recommended.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

has been plotting the data for several weeks now. They were the first website I found that did it, and when I got jeered at for taking them seriously I did point out that that they did say where they got their data from, but that my main reason for using them was the fact that they did post graphs.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

 

[Bill Sloman]

On Sunday, March 29, 2020 at 1:29:07 PM UTC+11, Flyguy wrote:

On Saturday, March 28, 2020 at 3:22:40 PM UTC-7, Rick C wrote:
On Saturday, March 28, 2020 at 6:10:40 PM UTC-4, Flyguy wrote:
On Saturday, March 28, 2020 at 2:55:41 PM UTC-7, Rick C wrote:
On Saturday, March 28, 2020 at 5:25:38 PM UTC-4, Flyguy wrote:
On Friday, March 27, 2020 at 8:15:42 PM UTC-7, Bill Sloman wrote:
On Saturday, March 28, 2020 at 12:27:46 AM UTC+11, dagmarg...@yahoo.com wrote:
On Friday, March 27, 2020 at 5:50:17 AM UTC-4, Tom Gardner wrote:
On 27/03/20 03:33, dagmargoodboat@yahoo.com wrote:

<snip>

I'm not going to get into that nonsense. The bottom line is there is no reason to dispute the numbers from China unless you believe literally everything they tell us is a lie including that they are reopening Wuhan.

Jeez, some people are so gullible they won't believe anything.


That's right: I LITERALLY believe that China is lying to us and the rest of the world; why change your stripes at this point in the game?

Flyguy is remarkably stupid, and might actually believe this.

More realistic observers might expect China to lie when they had a reasonable chance of getting away with it, and had something to gain by lying.

This doesn't seem to be such a situation.

And flyguy isn't consistent. He's perfectly happy to believe the Chinese report that they had retired 21 million cells phone, but insists it is because the owners had died. If that were the case the Chinese would presumably have lied about the cell phone numbers to cover it up.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

 

[Jeff Liebermann]

On Sat, 28 Mar 2020 20:14:13 -0700 (PDT), Bill Sloman
<bill.sloman@ieee.org> wrote:

Chinese migrant worked used to have two cell phones - one for making
local calls where they worked and the other for making local calls
when they were at home. If all those second phone had got retired,
you've got your explanation.

Not exactly. Chinese smart phones usually have dual SIM slots for
that purpose. Since that phone cannot connect to two different
services at the same time, they appear on call logs as one IMEI or
MEID for both SIMs.

There are also various reasons why they need dual SIMs.
"Why do Chinese smartphones have two SIM card slots?"
<https://www.quora.com/Why-do-Chinese-smartphones-have-two-SIM-card-slots>


--
Jeff Liebermann jeffl@cruzio.com
150 Felker St #D http://www.LearnByDestroying.com
Santa Cruz CA 95060 http://802.11junk.com
Skype: JeffLiebermann AE6KS 831-336-2558

 

[Rick C]

The CDC doesn't update their web page on weekends. Is that insane or what? I guess they don't want to have a second "essential" person handle that. But that data ends up being so old that it isn't saying anything useful even if it is more accurate.

Using the data from worldometers.info it appears the US new cases may be approaching a maximum. Being a differential it is fairly noisy, but the last six days have all been on the low side and the local trend is looking good.. Another couple of days may well show the new cases leveling off. That's still a heavy upward ramp, but at least it wouldn't be exponential anymore..

--

Rick C.

+++ Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
+++ Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

 

[Bill Sloman]

On Sunday, March 29, 2020 at 5:03:37 PM UTC+11, Jeff Liebermann wrote:

On Sat, 28 Mar 2020 20:14:13 -0700 (PDT), Bill Sloman
bill.sloman@ieee.org> wrote:

Chinese migrant worked used to have two cell phones - one for making
local calls where they worked and the other for making local calls
when they were at home. If all those second phone had got retired,
you've got your explanation.

Not exactly. Chinese smart phones usually have dual SIM slots for
that purpose. Since that phone cannot connect to two different
services at the same time, they appear on call logs as one IMEI or
MEID for both SIMs.

There are also various reasons why they need dual SIMs.
"Why do Chinese smartphones have two SIM card slots?"
https://www.quora.com/Why-do-Chinese-smartphones-have-two-SIM-card-slots

Same principle. It is the phone numbers that have been retired, not necessarily the phones themselves.

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0262407920305704

makes the point that the Chinese success wasn't primarily due to rigid lock-down, but the same sort of fanatical contact tracing and isolation of people who might have got infected that was used in South Korea. South Korea had enough warning that they could go straight to contact tracing, and didn't need to bother with lock-down.

If they were relying on cell-phones to keep track of people, they wouldn't be happy if the cell-phone had two SIM cards which could have been swapped between phones by people wanting to sneak out.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

 

[Bill Sloman]

On Sunday, March 29, 2020 at 6:38:13 PM UTC+11, Rick C wrote:

The CDC doesn't update their web page on weekends. Is that insane or what? I guess they don't want to have a second "essential" person handle that.. But that data ends up being so old that it isn't saying anything useful even if it is more accurate.

Using the data from worldometers.info it appears the US new cases may be approaching a maximum. Being a differential it is fairly noisy, but the last six days have all been on the low side and the local trend is looking good. Another couple of days may well show the new cases leveling off. That's still a heavy upward ramp, but at least it wouldn't be exponential anymore.

If the trend is still upwards, it just takes longer to get to the "everybody infected" stage. You've got to get to progressively fewer new cases on several successive days before you can talk about "looking good".

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

 

Jeff Liebermann <jeffl@cruzio.com> wrote in
news:b5e08fhp06qdhufeo5970nnopqam1ign3g@4ax.com:

On Sat, 28 Mar 2020 20:14:13 -0700 (PDT), Bill Sloman
bill.sloman@ieee.org> wrote:

Chinese migrant worked used to have two cell phones - one for
making local calls where they worked and the other for making
local calls when they were at home. If all those second phone had
got retired, you've got your explanation.

Not exactly. Chinese smart phones usually have dual SIM slots for
that purpose. Since that phone cannot connect to two different
services at the same time, they appear on call logs as one IMEI or
MEID for both SIMs.

There are also various reasons why they need dual SIMs.
"Why do Chinese smartphones have two SIM card slots?"
https://www.quora.com/Why-do-Chinese-smartphones-have-two-SIM-card
-slots

My very fisrt smartphone wsa from 5 years ago. It was a $900
Viewsonic and had two sim slots. It was because my boss went to
Israel a lot. Verizon would not activate it. So it has sat in a box
down near Perdue unused for the last 5 years.

 

[Jeff Liebermann]

On Sun, 29 Mar 2020 00:48:27 -0700 (PDT), Bill Sloman
<bill.sloman@ieee.org> wrote:

On Sunday, March 29, 2020 at 5:03:37 PM UTC+11, Jeff Liebermann wrote:
On Sat, 28 Mar 2020 20:14:13 -0700 (PDT), Bill Sloman
bill.sloman@ieee.org> wrote:

Chinese migrant worked used to have two cell phones - one for making
local calls where they worked and the other for making local calls
when they were at home. If all those second phone had got retired,
you've got your explanation.

Not exactly. Chinese smart phones usually have dual SIM slots for
that purpose. Since that phone cannot connect to two different
services at the same time, they appear on call logs as one IMEI or
MEID for both SIMs.

There are also various reasons why they need dual SIMs.
"Why do Chinese smartphones have two SIM card slots?"
https://www.quora.com/Why-do-Chinese-smartphones-have-two-SIM-card-slots

Same principle. It is the phone numbers that have been retired, not necessarily the phones themselves.

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0262407920305704

makes the point that the Chinese success wasn't primarily due to rigid lock-down, but the same sort of fanatical contact tracing and isolation of people who might have got infected that was used in South Korea. South Korea had enough warning that they could go straight to contact tracing, and didn't need to bother with lock-down.

If they were relying on cell-phones to keep track of people, they wouldn't be happy if the cell-phone had two SIM cards which could have been swapped between phones by people wanting to sneak out.

It doesn't matter if the phone number changes. The IMEI or MEID will
not change because they are burned into the firmware of the phone and
are not part of the user accessible SIM.

That Korea is doing is tracking people using an app (and testing):
<https://www.marketwatch.com/story/wildly-popular-coronavirus-tracker-app-helps-south-koreans-steer-clear-of-outbreak-areas-2020-03-18>
Those users are expected to enter their medical status twice per day.
If they're locked down, and they step outside the house or apartment,
the authorities will contact them with a suitable threat if they fail
to cooperate. If they are shown to be infected, or come in contact
with someone else known to be infected, the GPS location log is used
to do contact tracing and isolate everyone who might have been
exposed. I don't have any info on how China did it, but I suspect
it's similar.



--
Jeff Liebermann jeffl@cruzio.com
150 Felker St #D http://www.LearnByDestroying.com
Santa Cruz CA 95060 http://802.11junk.com
Skype: JeffLiebermann AE6KS 831-336-2558