Better Rate of Growth Data

[Bill Sloman]

On Friday, March 27, 2020 at 3:58:36 AM UTC+11, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:

On Thu, 26 Mar 2020 12:37:43 -0400, Phil Hobbs
pcdhSpamMeSenseless@electrooptical.net> wrote:

On 2020-03-25 23:34, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Wed, 25 Mar 2020 11:37:19 -0700 (PDT), dagmargoodboat@yahoo.com
wrote:

On Wednesday, March 25, 2020 at 2:02:06 PM UTC-4, Rick C wrote:
I have been collecting the data from the CDC which is dated to the estimated time of infection. This data shows new infections being attributed to dates up to a month ago. This both raises the numbers for older data and lowers the numbers for newer data. It also invalidates the newest data as being incomplete.

Constructing a graph from the most recent curve up to the peak infection rate gives a very consistent exponential line with a slope of 0.19. I will note this number and update it each day as the CDC releases new data. The data peak is 3/13 for data of 3/24 and has moved from 3/9 in data dated 3/19.

Unfortunately this method has a much longer lag time from actions to fight this disease.

--

Rick C.

- Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
- Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

I've been following it. It is and has been growing at almost
exactly 1.34x per day in the U.S. for the past 15 days. The U.K.
growth rate is also very consistent, but considerably lower. Weird.

Most of our infections are in New York, and nearly all of
the spread is from New Yorkers fleeing to Florida and
probably also visiting New Orleans' Mardi Gras, leaving
a swath of WuFlu as they go.

James Arthur


https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/coronavirus/bahrain-hydroxychloroquine-success-response-covid-19

https://nypost.com/2020/03/24/nevada-governor-bans-malaria-drugs-for-coronavirus-patients/

Does this virus cause insanity? Mild cases, just stupidity?

He climbed down, claiming that it's only permitted for inpatients, so
that worried folks don't hoard it all. A friend of my daughter's has
rheumatoid arthritis, and is having trouble getting her Plaquenil
prescription filled.

That Ferguson guy from Imperial College has now drastically reduced his
(previously apocalyptic) mortality estimates:

https://www.newscientist.com/article/2238578-uk-has-enough-intensive-care-units-for-coronavirus-expert-predicts/

If this thing does peak and go away naturally in the summer, as colds
and flu usually do, there will be no end of people to take credit for
it.

Perhaps, but it does seem to be more infectious than seasonal flu, and late summer conditions aren't helping much in Australia. We only had 359 new cases on Wednesday, down from a peak of 537 last Sunday but it looks more as if last Sunday was blip up, rather than the peak of a smooth curve.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/australia/

John Larkin seems to be in full Pollyanna mode here.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

 

[Bill Sloman]

On Friday, March 27, 2020 at 3:29:08 AM UTC+11, dagmarg...@yahoo.com wrote:

On Thursday, March 26, 2020 at 1:24:07 AM UTC-4, whit3rd wrote:
On Wednesday, March 25, 2020 at 6:54:19 PM UTC-7, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:

I don't trust the data from China. Doesn't make sense. I suspect they
will open the country for business and pretend there are no more
deaths.

Since China's history is that they alerted everyone to the disease, and closed
parts of the country, it's illogical to expect such a reversal. Are you having a
panic attack?

1) <quote
"In late December, rumors of a mysterious virus started circulating
on Chinese social media. China notified the WHO on Dec. 31 that there
was a pneumonia of unknown cause in Wuhan. Based on Chinese data, the
WHO issued a Jan. 5 statement saying there were 44 cases and no
evidence of person-to-person transmission.

But a Washington Post reconstruction of events showed that by Jan. 5, some Wuhan authorities knew that doctors were discussing the spread of a SARS-like virus. For this, they were detained and denounced."
/quote

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/chinese-officials-note-serious-problems-in-coronavirus-response-the-world-health-organization-keeps-praising-them/2020/02/08/b663dd7c-4834-11ea-91ab-ce439aa5c7c1_story.html

That story is behind a paywall. From what I remember, the detentions and denunciations were a local reaction, designed to maintain business as usual in Wuhan. Once the central authorities realised that they were seeing the early stages of an epidemic they started keeping WHO informed.

> 2) <quote>Chinese laboratories identified a mystery virus as a highly infectious new pathogen by late December last year, but they were ordered to stop tests, destroy samples and suppress the news, a Chinese media outlet has revealed.</quote>

Again, that seems to have been a lower-level "lets ignore it an hope it goes away" reaction.

> https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/chinese-scientists-destroyed-proof-of-virus-in-december-rz055qjnj

Again behind a paywall.

3)
.--
| January 20, 2020
|
| The World Health Organization confirmed that there is evidence of "limited human-to-human transmission" of the new virus.
| https://abcnews.go.com/Health/human-human-transmission-coronavirus-reported-china/story?id=68403105
'--

Once there were a significant number of cases, the Chinese authorities went public. This doesn't really suggest that they are going to start lying about it now.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

 

[Bill Sloman]

On Friday, March 27, 2020 at 1:17:04 AM UTC+11, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:

On Wed, 25 Mar 2020 22:24:03 -0700 (PDT), whit3rd <whit3rd@gmail.com
wrote:

On Wednesday, March 25, 2020 at 6:54:19 PM UTC-7, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:

I don't trust the data from China. Doesn't make sense. I suspect they
will open the country for business and pretend there are no more
deaths.

Since China's history is that they alerted everyone to the disease, and closed parts of the country, it's illogical to expect such a reversal. Are you having a panic attack?

1) China did everything they could do to hide the disease, until they
couldn't any more.

Some local lower level bureaucrats in Wuhan tried to suppress local discussion and investigation, but these attempts seem to have been overtaken by events fairly early on.

2) I never panic. I was born without a fear mechanism. I have no
startle reflex. That forces me to think with neurons, not hormones.

Sadly, whatever it is that damaged the neurones involved in your startle reflex (which isn't hormonal) seems to done quite a lot of damage to the neurones you use for general thinking.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

 

[John Larkin]

On Thu, 26 Mar 2020 10:20:29 -0700 (PDT), dagmargoodboat@yahoo.com
wrote:

On Thursday, March 26, 2020 at 12:37:54 PM UTC-4, Phil Hobbs wrote:
On 2020-03-25 23:34, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Wed, 25 Mar 2020 11:37:19 -0700 (PDT), dagmargoodboat@yahoo.com
wrote:

On Wednesday, March 25, 2020 at 2:02:06 PM UTC-4, Rick C wrote:
I have been collecting the data from the CDC which is dated to the estimated time of infection. This data shows new infections being attributed to dates up to a month ago. This both raises the numbers for older data and lowers the numbers for newer data. It also invalidates the newest data as being incomplete.

Constructing a graph from the most recent curve up to the peak infection rate gives a very consistent exponential line with a slope of 0.19. I will note this number and update it each day as the CDC releases new data. The data peak is 3/13 for data of 3/24 and has moved from 3/9 in data dated 3/19.

Unfortunately this method has a much longer lag time from actions to fight this disease.

--

Rick C.

- Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
- Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

I've been following it. It is and has been growing at almost
exactly 1.34x per day in the U.S. for the past 15 days. The U.K.
growth rate is also very consistent, but considerably lower. Weird.

Most of our infections are in New York, and nearly all of
the spread is from New Yorkers fleeing to Florida and
probably also visiting New Orleans' Mardi Gras, leaving
a swath of WuFlu as they go.

James Arthur


https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/coronavirus/bahrain-hydroxychloroquine-success-response-covid-19

https://nypost.com/2020/03/24/nevada-governor-bans-malaria-drugs-for-coronavirus-patients/

Does this virus cause insanity? Mild cases, just stupidity?

He climbed down, claiming that it's only permitted for inpatients, so
that worried folks don't hoard it all. A friend of my daughter's has
rheumatoid arthritis, and is having trouble getting her Plaquenil
prescription filled.

That Ferguson guy from Imperial College has now drastically reduced his
(previously apocalyptic) mortality estimates:

https://www.newscientist.com/article/2238578-uk-has-enough-intensive-care-units-for-coronavirus-expert-predicts/

Cheers

Phil Hobbs

Hey, that means the stimulus package Congress hasn't passed yet is
already working!

Cheers,
James Arthur
---

If the virus does peak soon, and go away as winter colds usually do,
do the Feds get their two trillion dollars back?

Politicians used to fling billions around for dramatic effect and
general porkiness. Now it's "I'll see your trillion, and raise you a
trillion more."

None of this debt can ever be paid back. It will be inflated out of
existence. It has to.

--

John Larkin Highland Technology, Inc
picosecond timing precision measurement

jlarkin att highlandtechnology dott com
http://www.highlandtechnology.com

 

[Tom Gardner]

On 26/03/20 19:45, Phil Hobbs wrote:

On 2020-03-26 13:05, Tom Gardner wrote:
On 26/03/20 16:37, Phil Hobbs wrote:
On 2020-03-25 23:34, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Wed, 25 Mar 2020 11:37:19 -0700 (PDT), dagmargoodboat@yahoo.com
wrote:

On Wednesday, March 25, 2020 at 2:02:06 PM UTC-4, Rick C wrote:
I have been collecting the data from the CDC which is dated to the
estimated time of infection.  This data shows new infections being
attributed to dates up to a month ago.  This both raises the numbers for
older data and lowers the numbers for newer data.  It also invalidates the
newest data as being incomplete.

Constructing a graph from the most recent curve up to the peak infection
rate gives a very consistent exponential line with a slope of 0.19.  I
will note this number and update it each day as the CDC releases new
data.  The data peak is 3/13 for data of 3/24 and has moved from 3/9 in
data dated 3/19.

Unfortunately this method has a much longer lag time from actions to fight
this disease.

--

   Rick C.

   - Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
   - Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

I've been following it. It is and has been growing at almost
exactly 1.34x per day in the U.S. for the past 15 days. The U.K.
growth rate is also very consistent, but considerably lower. Weird.

Most of our infections are in New York, and nearly all of
the spread is from New Yorkers fleeing to Florida and
probably also visiting New Orleans' Mardi Gras, leaving
a swath of WuFlu as they go.

James Arthur


https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/coronavirus/bahrain-hydroxychloroquine-success-response-covid-19


https://nypost.com/2020/03/24/nevada-governor-bans-malaria-drugs-for-coronavirus-patients/


Does this virus cause insanity? Mild cases, just stupidity?

He climbed down, claiming that it's only permitted for inpatients, so that
worried folks don't hoard it all.  A friend of my daughter's has rheumatoid
arthritis, and is having trouble getting her Plaquenil prescription filled.

That Ferguson guy from Imperial College has now drastically reduced his
(previously apocalyptic) mortality estimates:

https://www.newscientist.com/article/2238578-uk-has-enough-intensive-care-units-for-coronavirus-expert-predicts/



Probably because the UK has now taken relatively drastic
lockdown precautions. They listened to him and the *range*
of mortality estimates, and took action to avoid the
*worst* of them.

So of course he would reduce the mortality estimates away
from the "there's no problem" do-nothing worst cases!
It would be noteworthy if he didn't!

Sure, but a whole lot of the heavy breathing that's still going on assumes that
we're going to saturate all the hospitals.

Without taking significant actions, that is almost certainly
what would (have) occur(ed) here.

The NHS is on the edge in a normal winter, due to lack of
funding and political meddling. Italy had more spare capacity,
and look what happened there

It remains to be seen in what ways and to what extent the current
measures will effect the peak*s*.

 

[Bill Sloman]

On Friday, March 27, 2020 at 4:05:09 AM UTC+11, Tom Gardner wrote:

On 26/03/20 16:37, Phil Hobbs wrote:
On 2020-03-25 23:34, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Wed, 25 Mar 2020 11:37:19 -0700 (PDT), dagmargoodboat@yahoo.com
wrote:

On Wednesday, March 25, 2020 at 2:02:06 PM UTC-4, Rick C wrote:
I have been collecting the data from the CDC which is dated to the estimated
time of infection.  This data shows new infections being attributed to dates
up to a month ago.  This both raises the numbers for older data and lowers
the numbers for newer data.  It also invalidates the newest data as being
incomplete.

Constructing a graph from the most recent curve up to the peak infection
rate gives a very consistent exponential line with a slope of 0.19.  I will
note this number and update it each day as the CDC releases new data..  The
data peak is 3/13 for data of 3/24 and has moved from 3/9 in data dated 3/19.

Unfortunately this method has a much longer lag time from actions to fight
this disease.

--

   Rick C.

   - Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
   - Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

I've been following it. It is and has been growing at almost
exactly 1.34x per day in the U.S. for the past 15 days. The U.K.
growth rate is also very consistent, but considerably lower. Weird.

Most of our infections are in New York, and nearly all of
the spread is from New Yorkers fleeing to Florida and
probably also visiting New Orleans' Mardi Gras, leaving
a swath of WuFlu as they go.

James Arthur


https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/coronavirus/bahrain-hydroxychloroquine-success-response-covid-19


https://nypost.com/2020/03/24/nevada-governor-bans-malaria-drugs-for-coronavirus-patients/


Does this virus cause insanity? Mild cases, just stupidity?

He climbed down, claiming that it's only permitted for inpatients, so that
worried folks don't hoard it all.  A friend of my daughter's has rheumatoid
arthritis, and is having trouble getting her Plaquenil prescription filled.

That Ferguson guy from Imperial College has now drastically reduced his
(previously apocalyptic) mortality estimates:

https://www.newscientist.com/article/2238578-uk-has-enough-intensive-care-units-for-coronavirus-expert-predicts/

Probably because the UK has now taken relatively drastic
lockdown precautions. They listened to him and the *range*
of mortality estimates, and took action to avoid the
*worst* of them.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/

tells you how effective lock-down that was in force a week ago was. They might have reduced the R0 a bit, but it definitely needed to do better.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/

Italy's new case per day figure has been stable at about 5000 per day for a couple of days, so one hopes they had raised their game sometime last week..

So of course he would reduce the mortality estimates away
from the "there's no problem" do-nothing worst cases!
It would be noteworthy if he didn't!

OTOH, the Oxford University "we're all already infected"
speculations feel like "we can't rule this out and need
more money to study it" statements.

It might have been designed to prompt more enthusiasm for testing to see who has already had it.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

 

[Bill Sloman]

On Friday, March 27, 2020 at 6:45:14 AM UTC+11, Phil Hobbs wrote:

On 2020-03-26 13:05, Tom Gardner wrote:
On 26/03/20 16:37, Phil Hobbs wrote:
On 2020-03-25 23:34, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Wed, 25 Mar 2020 11:37:19 -0700 (PDT), dagmargoodboat@yahoo.com
wrote:

On Wednesday, March 25, 2020 at 2:02:06 PM UTC-4, Rick C wrote:

<snip>

So of course he would reduce the mortality estimates away
from the "there's no problem" do-nothing worst cases!
It would be noteworthy if he didn't!

Sure, but a whole lot of the heavy breathing that's still going on
assumes that we're going to saturate all the hospitals.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

The US new cases per day numbers are still rising rapidly. The logarithmic plot of total cases is bending down a bit, so whatever social distancing that was being enforced a week ago was anywhere near rigorous enough.

OTOH, the Oxford University "we're all already infected"
speculations feel like "we can't rule this out and need
more money to study it" statements.

The authors are computational types, and calling for field surveys,
which I don't think is their gig.

The result seems to have been a rush order for 3 million antibody prick tests, so the UK can tell who has already had the disease, and test some of the more bizarre Oxford speculations.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

 

[Flyguy]

On Wednesday, March 25, 2020 at 9:05:27 PM UTC-7, Bill Sloman wrote:

On Thursday, March 26, 2020 at 1:47:58 PM UTC+11, dagmarg...@yahoo.com wrote:
On Wednesday, March 25, 2020 at 9:54:19 PM UTC-4, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Wed, 25 Mar 2020 11:37:19 -0700 (PDT), dagmargoodboat@yahoo.com
wrote:

On Wednesday, March 25, 2020 at 2:02:06 PM UTC-4, Rick C wrote:
I have been collecting the data from the CDC which is dated to the estimated time of infection. This data shows new infections being attributed to dates up to a month ago. This both raises the numbers for older data and lowers the numbers for newer data. It also invalidates the newest data as being incomplete.

Constructing a graph from the most recent curve up to the peak infection rate gives a very consistent exponential line with a slope of 0.19. I will note this number and update it each day as the CDC releases new data. The data peak is 3/13 for data of 3/24 and has moved from 3/9 in data dated 3/19.

Unfortunately this method has a much longer lag time from actions to fight this disease.

I've been following it. It is and has been growing at almost
exactly 1.34x per day in the U.S. for the past 15 days. The U.K.
growth rate is also very consistent, but considerably lower. Weird.

Most of our infections are in New York, and nearly all of
the spread is from New Yorkers fleeing to Florida and
probably also visiting New Orleans' Mardi Gras, leaving
a swath of WuFlu as they go.

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

I'm watching the "daily increase" graphs. The last few days are flat
or declining for some. Italy, France, Germany, Austria, Switzerland
(which has no shelter-in-place rules) all seem to have peaked a few
days ago. You can sort of mentally plop a bell-shaped curve over a lot
of those graphs. We need another week of data.

The CDC has a useful graph of the various states:
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/cases-in-us.html?CDC_AA_refVal

Screen-grabbing that graph's evolution over time shows the spread.

I've been following https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
for the overall picture -- the log graphs make it easy. But we
can't vouch for the site's accuracy.

They do say where they get their data from.

I don't trust the data from China. Doesn't make sense.

John Larkin's idea of what might make sense isn't all that useful.
I've not seen anybody claim that the China data is false with any kind of supporting evidence.

The general line is that they don't like the data and think the fact that it come from China is an excuse for them to invent their own.

I suspect they will open the country for business and pretend there are no more deaths.

As Trump seems to be planning to do.

snip

--
Bill Sloman. Sydney

LOL! OF COURSE they isn't any supporting data: China arrests anyone who attempts to do that, and kicks news reporters out of the country to be sure they don't get their story heard.

A curious thing has happened China: 21 million cell phone subscriptions have disappeared, and a drop in subscriptions has not occurred before, let alone 21 million:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A1F_kWYdqUY

https://www.theepochtimes.com/the-closing-of-21-million-cell-phone-accounts-in-china-may-suggest-a-high-ccp-virus-death-toll_3281291.html

The only thing we know for sure about data from Chinese communists is that it is doctored.

 

On Thursday, March 26, 2020 at 3:10:32 PM UTC-4, whit3rd wrote:

On Thursday, March 26, 2020 at 9:29:08 AM UTC-7, dagmarg...@yahoo.com wrote:

2) <quote>Chinese laboratories identified a mystery virus as a highly infectious new pathogen by late December last year, but they were ordered to stop tests, destroy samples and suppress the news...

Yeah, there's a few weeks with only dozens of patients and resistance to
the 'new disease' hypothesis. That didn't last.

I think you missed the part about "were ordered to stop tests, destroy
samples, and suppress the news..."

Also, they denied there was human transmission, well after it was amply
established.

The China response and their
sharing of information with the rest of the world was prompt and seems
complete. The 'some Wuhan authorities' have been disciplined, for the
health of the nation (of China), and that's probably for the best.

The idea that data from China 'doesn't make sense' is a laugh, why would early stages
of an epidemic EVER give complete and useful knowledge? The early-months data
from Italy, Korea, Japan, etc. aren't completely informative, either.

It's hard to trust people who fudged and fibbed, that's John's point.

They've consistently worked hard to minimize and understate. If they've
under-reported infections, that changes the case fatality rates the
world's panicked over.

Cheers,
James Arthur

 

On Thursday, March 26, 2020 at 6:04:38 PM UTC-4, John Larkin wrote:

On Thu, 26 Mar 2020 10:20:29 -0700 (PDT), dagmargoodboat@yahoo.com
wrote:

On Thursday, March 26, 2020 at 12:37:54 PM UTC-4, Phil Hobbs wrote:
On 2020-03-25 23:34, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Wed, 25 Mar 2020 11:37:19 -0700 (PDT), dagmargoodboat@yahoo.com
wrote:

On Wednesday, March 25, 2020 at 2:02:06 PM UTC-4, Rick C wrote:
I have been collecting the data from the CDC which is dated to the estimated time of infection. This data shows new infections being attributed to dates up to a month ago. This both raises the numbers for older data and lowers the numbers for newer data. It also invalidates the newest data as being incomplete.

Constructing a graph from the most recent curve up to the peak infection rate gives a very consistent exponential line with a slope of 0.19. I will note this number and update it each day as the CDC releases new data. The data peak is 3/13 for data of 3/24 and has moved from 3/9 in data dated 3/19.

Unfortunately this method has a much longer lag time from actions to fight this disease.

--

Rick C.

- Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
- Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

I've been following it. It is and has been growing at almost
exactly 1.34x per day in the U.S. for the past 15 days. The U.K.
growth rate is also very consistent, but considerably lower. Weird.

Most of our infections are in New York, and nearly all of
the spread is from New Yorkers fleeing to Florida and
probably also visiting New Orleans' Mardi Gras, leaving
a swath of WuFlu as they go.

James Arthur


https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/coronavirus/bahrain-hydroxychloroquine-success-response-covid-19

https://nypost.com/2020/03/24/nevada-governor-bans-malaria-drugs-for-coronavirus-patients/

Does this virus cause insanity? Mild cases, just stupidity?

He climbed down, claiming that it's only permitted for inpatients, so
that worried folks don't hoard it all. A friend of my daughter's has
rheumatoid arthritis, and is having trouble getting her Plaquenil
prescription filled.

That Ferguson guy from Imperial College has now drastically reduced his
(previously apocalyptic) mortality estimates:

https://www.newscientist.com/article/2238578-uk-has-enough-intensive-care-units-for-coronavirus-expert-predicts/

Cheers

Phil Hobbs

Hey, that means the stimulus package Congress hasn't passed yet is
already working!

Cheers,
James Arthur
---

If the virus does peak soon, and go away as winter colds usually do,
do the Feds get their two trillion dollars back?

Politicians used to fling billions around for dramatic effect and
general porkiness. Now it's "I'll see your trillion, and raise you a
trillion more."

None of this debt can ever be paid back. It will be inflated out of
existence. It has to.

The spending is a far greater threat than the virus. It's all extracted
from the economy, reallocates the country's resources foolishly,
and is guaranteed to depress America's vigor for a decade. That's
the best-case.


Cheers,
James Arthur

 

[Rick C]

On Thursday, March 26, 2020 at 7:29:56 PM UTC-4, Tom Gardner wrote:

The NHS is on the edge in a normal winter, due to lack of
funding and political meddling. Italy had more spare capacity,
and look what happened there

It remains to be seen in what ways and to what extent the current
measures will effect the peak*s*.

No small part of the problem is to enact the measures when the infection rates are still low so you are fighting a smaller problem and your resources can be used more effectively. But if you don't have tests, people don't fully cooperate with authorities and the authorities are slow to issue the orders we all know they needed to issue then you get... what we have.

But now that the US is in the lead in this race, I'm sure we will show the world how it is done. Well, we'll show them something.

--

Rick C.

++ Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
++ Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

 

[Bill Sloman]

On Friday, March 27, 2020 at 2:41:17 PM UTC+11, dagmarg...@yahoo.com wrote:

On Thursday, March 26, 2020 at 6:04:38 PM UTC-4, John Larkin wrote:
On Thu, 26 Mar 2020 10:20:29 -0700 (PDT), dagmargoodboat@yahoo.com
wrote:
On Thursday, March 26, 2020 at 12:37:54 PM UTC-4, Phil Hobbs wrote:
On 2020-03-25 23:34, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Wed, 25 Mar 2020 11:37:19 -0700 (PDT), dagmargoodboat@yahoo.com
wrote:
On Wednesday, March 25, 2020 at 2:02:06 PM UTC-4, Rick C wrote:

<snip>

The spending is a far greater threat than the virus. It's all extracted
from the economy, reallocates the country's resources foolishly,
and is guaranteed to depress America's vigor for a decade. That's
the best-case.

Whereas James Arthur would prefer a full-blown depression. The last one - from 1929 to 1933 - didn't exactly invigorate the country, but James Arthur is rather like those doctors who went in for blood-letting, who blamed any failure on not having bled the patient enthusiastically enough.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

 

[Bill Sloman]

On Friday, March 27, 2020 at 11:16:49 AM UTC+11, Flyguy wrote:

On Wednesday, March 25, 2020 at 9:05:27 PM UTC-7, Bill Sloman wrote:
On Thursday, March 26, 2020 at 1:47:58 PM UTC+11, dagmarg...@yahoo.com wrote:
On Wednesday, March 25, 2020 at 9:54:19 PM UTC-4, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Wed, 25 Mar 2020 11:37:19 -0700 (PDT), dagmargoodboat@yahoo.com
wrote:

On Wednesday, March 25, 2020 at 2:02:06 PM UTC-4, Rick C wrote:

<snip>

I've not seen anybody claim that the China data is false with any kind of supporting evidence.

The general line is that they don't like the data and think the fact that it come from China is an excuse for them to invent their own.

I suspect they will open the country for business and pretend there are no more deaths.

As Trump seems to be planning to do.

snip

LOL! OF COURSE they isn't any supporting data: China arrests anyone who attempts to do that, and kicks news reporters out of the country to be sure they don't get their story heard.

They certainly try to intimidate reporters, and like to control what the outside world gets to hear, but there are ways of getting around that.

A curious thing has happened China: 21 million cell phone subscriptions have disappeared, and a drop in subscriptions has not occurred before, let alone 21 million:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A1F_kWYdqUY

https://www.theepochtimes.com/the-closing-of-21-million-cell-phone-accounts-in-china-may-suggest-a-high-ccp-virus-death-toll_3281291.html

Or it might suggest that the CCP has found out that some phones support encryption, and shut them down.

One point in one of the reports was that migrant workers used to have different cell phones for use at at home and when at work. If China is locking down on one cell phone per person (which is used to identify and locate them all the time) it's easy enough to see how a lot of second cell phones might have get retired.
o
> The only thing we know for sure about data from Chinese communists is that it is doctored.

You don't even know that for sure. Doctoring data takes a lot of work on making the associated data consistent with the doctored data, and its rarely worth the effort.

Rabid idiots like you want ignore any Chinese data you don't like and replace with your own bizarre inventions, which isn't helpful.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

 

[Bill Sloman]

On Friday, March 27, 2020 at 2:33:59 PM UTC+11, dagmarg...@yahoo.com wrote:

On Thursday, March 26, 2020 at 3:10:32 PM UTC-4, whit3rd wrote:
On Thursday, March 26, 2020 at 9:29:08 AM UTC-7, dagmarg...@yahoo.com wrote:

2) <quote>Chinese laboratories identified a mystery virus as a highly infectious new pathogen by late December last year, but they were ordered to stop tests, destroy samples and suppress the news...

Yeah, there's a few weeks with only dozens of patients and resistance to
the 'new disease' hypothesis. That didn't last.

I think you missed the part about "were ordered to stop tests, destroy
samples, and suppress the news..."

That does seem to have been a stupid low level response. Once the problem was recognised higher in the power structure, the responses got more constructive - and more sustainable - almost immediately.

Also, they denied there was human transmission, well after it was amply
established.

For exactly how long?

The China response and their
sharing of information with the rest of the world was prompt and seems
complete. The 'some Wuhan authorities' have been disciplined, for the
health of the nation (of China), and that's probably for the best.

The idea that data from China 'doesn't make sense' is a laugh, why would early stages of an epidemic EVER give complete and useful knowledge? The early-months data from Italy, Korea, Japan, etc. aren't completely informative, either.

It's hard to trust people who fudged and fibbed, that's John's point.

And James Arthur fits squarely into that category. So does John Larkin for that matter, even if his fudges and fibs are second hand consequences of being a gullible twit.

They've consistently worked hard to minimize and understate. If they've
under-reported infections, that changes the case fatality rates the
world's panicked over.

Their hospitalisation rate,and serious and critical patient numbers don't look all that different from Italy.

It's rather difficult to report all infections of a new virus - you need antibody detection kits for that, and they take a while to put together. Virus detection kits to identify active cases take priority, and the US made a hash of ramping up their stock of them even after they'd got the heads-up from China.

James Arthur has a political axe to grind, and long history of fudging and fibbing to make his silly ideas look more plausible.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

 

[whit3rd]

On Thursday, March 26, 2020 at 8:33:59 PM UTC-7, dagmarg...@yahoo.com wrote:

On Thursday, March 26, 2020 at 3:10:32 PM UTC-4, whit3rd wrote:
On Thursday, March 26, 2020 at 9:29:08 AM UTC-7, dagmarg...@yahoo.com wrote:

2) <quote>Chinese laboratories identified a mystery virus as a highly infectious new pathogen by late December last year, but they were ordered to stop tests, destroy samples and suppress the news...

Yeah, there's a few weeks with only dozens of patients and resistance to
the 'new disease' hypothesis. That didn't last.

I think you missed the part about "were ordered to stop tests, destroy
samples, and suppress the news..."

The China response and their
sharing of information with the rest of the world was prompt and seems
complete. The 'some Wuhan authorities' have been disciplined, for the
health of the nation (of China), and that's probably for the best.

It's hard to trust people who fudged and fibbed, that's John's point.

Meaningless mudslinging. It's in the self-interest of
China to combat a major disease, and fibbing isn't how to do that.

Pandemic means this doesn't stop at the border; not at ANY border.

Why try to paint fear, uncertainty, and doubt onto such an unlikely surface? It doesn't stick.

 

[Bill Sloman]

On Friday, March 27, 2020 at 8:50:17 PM UTC+11, Tom Gardner wrote:

On 27/03/20 03:33, dagmargoodboat@yahoo.com wrote:
It's hard to trust people who fudged and fibbed, that's John's point.

They've consistently worked hard to minimize and understate. If they've
under-reported infections, that changes the case fatality rates the
world's panicked over.

Sorry, are you talking about China or the Trump administration?

James Arthur claims to approve of Trump.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

 

[Tom Gardner]

On 27/03/20 03:33, dagmargoodboat@yahoo.com wrote:

It's hard to trust people who fudged and fibbed, that's John's point.

They've consistently worked hard to minimize and understate. If they've
under-reported infections, that changes the case fatality rates the
world's panicked over.

Sorry, are you talking about China or the Trump administration?

 

On Friday, March 27, 2020 at 5:50:17 AM UTC-4, Tom Gardner wrote:

On 27/03/20 03:33, dagmargoodboat@yahoo.com wrote:
It's hard to trust people who fudged and fibbed, that's John's point.

They've consistently worked hard to minimize and understate. If they've
under-reported infections, that changes the case fatality rates the
world's panicked over.

Sorry, are you talking about China or the Trump administration?

China. They destroyed samples, suppressed the news, and were telling
the world it wasn't contagious when they knew it was.

The Trump administration's been brilliant, ankle-biters notwithstanding.


Cheers,
James Arthur

 

On Friday, March 27, 2020 at 2:54:58 AM UTC-4, whit3rd wrote:

On Thursday, March 26, 2020 at 8:33:59 PM UTC-7, dagmarg...@yahoo.com wrote:
On Thursday, March 26, 2020 at 3:10:32 PM UTC-4, whit3rd wrote:
On Thursday, March 26, 2020 at 9:29:08 AM UTC-7, dagmarg...@yahoo.com wrote:

2) <quote>Chinese laboratories identified a mystery virus as a highly infectious new pathogen by late December last year, but they were ordered to stop tests, destroy samples and suppress the news...

Yeah, there's a few weeks with only dozens of patients and resistance to
the 'new disease' hypothesis. That didn't last.

I think you missed the part about "were ordered to stop tests, destroy
samples, and suppress the news..."

The China response and their
sharing of information with the rest of the world was prompt and seems
complete. The 'some Wuhan authorities' have been disciplined, for the
health of the nation (of China), and that's probably for the best.

It's hard to trust people who fudged and fibbed, that's John's point.

Meaningless mudslinging. It's in the self-interest of
China to combat a major disease, and fibbing isn't how to do that.

Pandemic means this doesn't stop at the border; not at ANY border.

Why try to paint fear, uncertainty, and doubt onto such an unlikely surface? It doesn't stick.

That's being silly. The communists tried to suppress the reports and
they insisted the virus was not transmissible for weeks after they
knew it was. They ejected reporters; they summoned and silenced those
trailblazers who dared discuss it; they withheld critical information
from international medical teams sent in to help.

Those are all objective facts from public reporting. Weighing those
facts is not "paint[ing] fear," etc., it's common sense.

Cheers,
James Arthur

 

[Tom Gardner]

On 27/03/20 13:27, dagmargoodboat@yahoo.com wrote:

On Friday, March 27, 2020 at 5:50:17 AM UTC-4, Tom Gardner wrote:
On 27/03/20 03:33, dagmargoodboat@yahoo.com wrote:
It's hard to trust people who fudged and fibbed, that's John's point.

They've consistently worked hard to minimize and understate. If they've
under-reported infections, that changes the case fatality rates the
world's panicked over.

Sorry, are you talking about China or the Trump administration?

China. They destroyed samples, suppressed the news, and were telling
the world it wasn't contagious when they knew it was.

They certainly weren't perfect. Being afraid to tell truth
to power leads to imperfection.


> The Trump administration's been brilliant, ankle-biters notwithstanding.

Being afraid to tell truth to power leads to imperfection.