Ventilator

[Rick C]

On Saturday, March 21, 2020 at 10:01:38 PM UTC-4, Jeff Liebermann wrote:

On Sun, 22 Mar 2020 01:07:48 +0000 (UTC),
DecadentLinuxUserNumeroUno@decadence.org wrote:

Jeff Liebermann <jeffl@cruzio.com> wrote in
news:4ced7ftdf3vnq0r7qaj3ht0h9cajv4q3a2@4ax.com:

On Mon, 16 Mar 2020 10:57:59 +1100, Clifford Heath
no.spam@please.net> wrote:

The number of critical cases not surviving the COVID-19 virus is
linked to the limited availability of ventilators. So I'm looking
at my extensive collection of project materials and thinking "how
hard can it be to make a ventilator? How many could I make in the
next two weeks?"

Can anyone summarise the key components and functions of these
things?

I'm assuming some kind of motor-driven bellows, and a face mask,
but... what else?

Clifford Heath.

This might be of interest:

"Low cost ventilator for standalone use during the Covid-19
pandemic" <https://hackaday.io/project/170401-low-cost-ventilator

Did you see the news piece on Elon Musk? He is making ventilators.
So he says...

"SpaceX and Tesla are ‘working on’ ventilators, Elon Musk says"
https://techcrunch.com/2020/03/20/spacex-and-tesla-are-working-on-ventilators-elon-musk-says/

However, they may be a problem getting some hospitals to pay for them:
"More lifesaving ventilators are available. Hospitals say they can’t
afford them."
https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/03/18/ventilator-shortage-hospital-icu-coronavirus/

I guess hospitals must be impoverished:
"Hospitals made $21B on Wall Street last year, but are patients seeing
those profits?"
https://www.nbcnews.com/business/business-news/hospitals-made-21b-wall-street-last-year-are-patients-seeing-n845176

I have to wonder how all this will play into the debate of universal healthcare.

--

Rick C.

-+-- Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
-+-- Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

 

[Jeff Liebermann]

On Sun, 22 Mar 2020 01:07:48 +0000 (UTC),
DecadentLinuxUserNumeroUno@decadence.org wrote:

Jeff Liebermann <jeffl@cruzio.com> wrote in
news:4ced7ftdf3vnq0r7qaj3ht0h9cajv4q3a2@4ax.com:

On Mon, 16 Mar 2020 10:57:59 +1100, Clifford Heath
no.spam@please.net> wrote:

The number of critical cases not surviving the COVID-19 virus is
linked to the limited availability of ventilators. So I'm looking
at my extensive collection of project materials and thinking "how
hard can it be to make a ventilator? How many could I make in the
next two weeks?"

Can anyone summarise the key components and functions of these
things?

I'm assuming some kind of motor-driven bellows, and a face mask,
but... what else?

Clifford Heath.

This might be of interest:

"Low cost ventilator for standalone use during the Covid-19
pandemic" <https://hackaday.io/project/170401-low-cost-ventilator

Did you see the news piece on Elon Musk? He is making ventilators.
So he says...

"SpaceX and Tesla are ‘working on’ ventilators, Elon Musk says"
<https://techcrunch.com/2020/03/20/spacex-and-tesla-are-working-on-ventilators-elon-musk-says/>

However, they may be a problem getting some hospitals to pay for them:
"More lifesaving ventilators are available. Hospitals say they can’t
afford them."
<https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/03/18/ventilator-shortage-hospital-icu-coronavirus/>

I guess hospitals must be impoverished:
"Hospitals made $21B on Wall Street last year, but are patients seeing
those profits?"
<https://www.nbcnews.com/business/business-news/hospitals-made-21b-wall-street-last-year-are-patients-seeing-n845176>

--
Jeff Liebermann jeffl@cruzio.com
150 Felker St #D http://www.LearnByDestroying.com
Santa Cruz CA 95060 http://802.11junk.com
Skype: JeffLiebermann AE6KS 831-336-2558

 

Jeff Liebermann <jeffl@cruzio.com> wrote in
news6hd7f1es2s66q113d56brnms1i7e5tvk3@4ax.com:

On Sun, 22 Mar 2020 01:07:48 +0000 (UTC),
DecadentLinuxUserNumeroUno@decadence.org wrote:

Jeff Liebermann <jeffl@cruzio.com> wrote in
news:4ced7ftdf3vnq0r7qaj3ht0h9cajv4q3a2@4ax.com:

On Mon, 16 Mar 2020 10:57:59 +1100, Clifford Heath
no.spam@please.net> wrote:

The number of critical cases not surviving the COVID-19 virus is
linked to the limited availability of ventilators. So I'm
looking at my extensive collection of project materials and
thinking "how hard can it be to make a ventilator? How many
could I make in the next two weeks?"

Can anyone summarise the key components and functions of these
things?

I'm assuming some kind of motor-driven bellows, and a face mask,
but... what else?

Clifford Heath.

This might be of interest:

"Low cost ventilator for standalone use during the Covid-19
pandemic"
https://hackaday.io/project/170401-low-cost-ventilator

Did you see the news piece on Elon Musk? He is making
ventilators. So he says...

"SpaceX and Tesla are ‘working on’ ventilators, Elon Musk says"
https://techcrunch.com/2020/03/20/spacex-and-tesla-are-working-on-
ventilators-elon-musk-says/

However, they may be a problem getting some hospitals to pay for
them: "More lifesaving ventilators are available. Hospitals say
they can’t afford them."
https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/03/18/ventilator-shorta
ge-hospital-icu-coronavirus/

I guess hospitals must be impoverished:
"Hospitals made $21B on Wall Street last year, but are patients
seeing those profits?"
https://www.nbcnews.com/business/business-news/hospitals-made-21b-
wall-street-last-year-are-patients-seeing-n845176

Trump thinks bad trade and abandoning manufacturers messed this
country up.

A few things..

I think it was the entire insurance paradigm. It was a nice idea,
but since there is no control over it, they make money hand over
fist. And since they make so much money, they get taxed out the ass.
So the reality is that your insurance premium is really the IRS
jacking your wallet for a little bit more, and you are at the mercy
of the insurer as to whether your claim gets paid AND as to how much.

I think that the medical community has committed fraud for DECADES,
and they, nor the insurer, nor the IRS wants anything to change, and
the whole time not only the fraudulent line items go up, but the real
items go up too.

And let's toos lawyers in there too.

And in a recession or downturn, the middle class gets nailed and
the politicians and doctors and insurance salepersons all still sit
at cherry tables eating steak.

And all they buy goods so nonchalantly and the price of everything
inflates for us and they do not even notice.

As if Trump has any clue how things are for ANY American. His
Daddy gave him his first million by age 8.

 

[Rick C]

On Saturday, March 21, 2020 at 10:56:23 PM UTC-4, DecadentLinux...@decadence.org wrote:

Trump thinks bad trade and abandoning manufacturers messed this
country up.

A few things..

I think it was the entire insurance paradigm.

I didn't even think about the insurance companies. They are going to lose big bucks this year. Of course they can raise their premiums next year, but only the ones still in business.

Interesting...

--

Rick C.

-+-+ Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
-+-+ Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

 

[Jeff Liebermann]

On Sat, 21 Mar 2020 19:43:41 -0700 (PDT), Rick C
<gnuarm.deletethisbit@gmail.com> wrote:

>I have to wonder how all this will play into the debate of universal healthcare.

Same as Hillary's Single Payer Health Plan. The congress critters
will butcher it with ammendments, riders, private bills, creative
financing, and ambiguous definitions to the point where nobody will
actually understand it. Also see Obama's Affordable Health Care Act
for another shining example of how it work. Whether yet another such
plan will pass has little to do with whether it will provide good,
affordable, timely, and universal medicine to everyone, but rather
what deals were made in order to get the votes necessary to pass the
act. See:
<https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pork_barrel>

--
Jeff Liebermann jeffl@cruzio.com
150 Felker St #D http://www.LearnByDestroying.com
Santa Cruz CA 95060 http://802.11junk.com
Skype: JeffLiebermann AE6KS 831-336-2558

 

[Rick C]

On Sunday, March 22, 2020 at 12:19:39 AM UTC-4, Jeff Liebermann wrote:

On Sat, 21 Mar 2020 19:43:41 -0700 (PDT), Rick C
gnuarm.deletethisbit@gmail.com> wrote:

I have to wonder how all this will play into the debate of universal healthcare.

Same as Hillary's Single Payer Health Plan. The congress critters
will butcher it with ammendments, riders, private bills, creative
financing, and ambiguous definitions to the point where nobody will
actually understand it. Also see Obama's Affordable Health Care Act
for another shining example of how it work. Whether yet another such
plan will pass has little to do with whether it will provide good,
affordable, timely, and universal medicine to everyone, but rather
what deals were made in order to get the votes necessary to pass the
act. See:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pork_barrel

You seem to be talking tactical issues. I'm wondering if this will cause a fundamental shift in the issues involved. I don't know there is enough interesting in universal healthcare for voters to elect representatives to vote for any such bill. This catastrophe may change that.

The UK and other countries figured out how to get there. Why are we so lagging behind when it comes to healthcare?

But maybe these are orthogonal issues. The UK doesn't seem to be doing any better fighting this disease than we are. It's the Asian countries that seem to be doing much better. I guess after the elections we may have a thorough post mortem (no pun intended) that may give us some insight into what to change. Or maybe not.

It is so discouraging to see a government so inept.

--

Rick C.

-++- Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
-++- Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

 

[Rick C]

On Sunday, March 22, 2020 at 12:58:42 AM UTC-4, DecadentLinux...@decadence.org wrote:

Rick C <gnuarm.deletethisbit@gmail.com> wrote in
news:c5cba1fe-b1bf-46b4-84e0-20ff09100705@googlegroups.com:

On Saturday, March 21, 2020 at 10:56:23 PM UTC-4,
DecadentLinux...@decadence.org wrote:

Trump thinks bad trade and abandoning manufacturers messed this
country up.

A few things..

I think it was the entire insurance paradigm.

I didn't even think about the insurance companies. They are going
to lose big bucks this year. Of course they can raise their
premiums next year, but only the ones still in business.

Interesting...


You missed what I meant. I mean that insurance is resaponsible for
decades of overt inflation. Since their very inception.

I am not interested in what you meant.

--

Rick C.

-+++ Get 2,000 miles of free Supercharging
-+++ Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

 

Rick C <gnuarm.deletethisbit@gmail.com> wrote in
news:c5cba1fe-b1bf-46b4-84e0-20ff09100705@googlegroups.com:

On Saturday, March 21, 2020 at 10:56:23 PM UTC-4,
DecadentLinux...@decadence.org wrote:

Trump thinks bad trade and abandoning manufacturers messed this
country up.

A few things..

I think it was the entire insurance paradigm.

I didn't even think about the insurance companies. They are going
to lose big bucks this year. Of course they can raise their
premiums next year, but only the ones still in business.

Interesting...

You missed what I meant. I mean that insurance is resaponsible for
decades of overt inflation. Since their very inception.

 

[Jeff Liebermann]

On Sat, 21 Mar 2020 19:43:41 -0700 (PDT), Rick C
<gnuarm.deletethisbit@gmail.com> wrote:

>I have to wonder how all this will play into the debate of universal healthcare.

This might be the breakthrough we've been waiting for. I just hope
the test works as expected:

"FDA authorizes new test that could detect coronavirus in about 45
minutes"
<https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/21/politics/fda-coronavirus-test/index.html>

Just what the doctor ordered. A really quick test is what we need.
Test, test, test, and test again, until all the carriers are removed
from the population. That what they did in one village in Italy
and it worked.

"Scientists say mass tests in Italian town have halted Covid-19 there"
<https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/18/scientists-say-mass-tests-in-italian-town-have-halted-covid-19>

The only problem I see at this time is that if the test were really
cheap and fast, it might become a requirement for entry into crowded
public venues. For example, when approaching the front door of a
restaurant, we're greeted by a bouncer demanding that we submit to a
COVID-19 test before we're allowed to enter. Not much fun, but much
better than the present situation of closed restraunts and voluntary
house arrest.


--
Jeff Liebermann jeffl@cruzio.com
150 Felker St #D http://www.LearnByDestroying.com
Santa Cruz CA 95060 http://802.11junk.com
Skype: JeffLiebermann AE6KS 831-336-2558

 

[Bill Sloman]

On Sunday, March 22, 2020 at 3:44:52 PM UTC+11, Rick C wrote:

On Sunday, March 22, 2020 at 12:19:39 AM UTC-4, Jeff Liebermann wrote:
On Sat, 21 Mar 2020 19:43:41 -0700 (PDT), Rick C
gnuarm.deletethisbit@gmail.com> wrote:

I have to wonder how all this will play into the debate of universal healthcare.

<snip>

You seem to be talking tactical issues. I'm wondering if this will cause a fundamental shift in the issues involved. I don't know there is enough interesting in universal healthcare for voters to elect representatives to vote for any such bill. This catastrophe may change that.

The UK and other countries figured out how to get there. Why are we so lagging behind when it comes to healthcare?

But maybe these are orthogonal issues. The UK doesn't seem to be doing any better fighting this disease than we are.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/

pretty much exactly the same.

It's the Asian countries that seem to be doing much better. I guess after the elections we may have a thorough post mortem (no pun intended) that may give us some insight into what to change. Or maybe not.

It is so discouraging to see a government so inept.

My argument for universal health care has always been that the main job of the health system is to detect and contain epidemic diseases - regular health care may be what keeps them busy most of the time, but it's essentially a bribe to keep people in contact with the health system so that they can be quarantined as soon as they come down with something infectious.

This hasn't gone well with the Americans who post here. Maybe it will seem more persuasive in the immediate future.

The problem with US health care - as it is with a lot of US political questions - is that people with money have a disproportionate effect on what gets done, and they don't like seeing their money spent on keeping poor people alive.

The fact that this helps to keep rich people alive for longer has been a little too indirect to register. This may change, but our resident right-wing lunatics haven't got the message yet.

John Larkin still thinks that he has a parts per million chance of being exposed to Covid-19 - which is sort of true today - 87 ppm. When I last calculated it, it was 46 ppm. If the reported cases continue rising exponentially he's a bit more than a month off a virtually certain infection.

Italy eventually managed to bend the curve down a bit, but there are still more new cases every day than there were on the previous day so they have every chance of ending up with more infections than China in a much smaller population - they are more than half-way there already - and they now look more locked down than the US does.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

 

[Rick C]

On Sunday, March 22, 2020 at 1:29:36 AM UTC-4, Jeff Liebermann wrote:

On Sat, 21 Mar 2020 19:43:41 -0700 (PDT), Rick C
gnuarm.deletethisbit@gmail.com> wrote:

I have to wonder how all this will play into the debate of universal healthcare.

This might be the breakthrough we've been waiting for. I just hope
the test works as expected:

"FDA authorizes new test that could detect coronavirus in about 45
minutes"
https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/21/politics/fda-coronavirus-test/index.html

Just what the doctor ordered. A really quick test is what we need.
Test, test, test, and test again, until all the carriers are removed
from the population. That what they did in one village in Italy
and it worked.

Do you think it will be ready for use in two weeks? That's when the hospitals in the US will be getting overrun.

We needed the testing a month ago when we had a chance to stop this before it bloomed out of control. Now it is too late. The only approaches left are total lock down of affected areas or allowing the disease to run its course and play out.

"Scientists say mass tests in Italian town have halted Covid-19 there"
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/18/scientists-say-mass-tests-in-italian-town-have-halted-covid-19

The only problem I see at this time is that if the test were really
cheap and fast, it might become a requirement for entry into crowded
public venues. For example, when approaching the front door of a
restaurant, we're greeted by a bouncer demanding that we submit to a
COVID-19 test before we're allowed to enter. Not much fun, but much
better than the present situation of closed restraunts and voluntary
house arrest.

Yes, the current approach is not working. The infection rate has actually increased the last few days. We need mandatory lock down of affected areas, but our leaders have no spines.

In this country we are fucked.

--

Rick C.

+--- Get 2,000 miles of free Supercharging
+--- Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

 

[David Brown]

On 22/03/2020 05:44, Rick C wrote:

On Sunday, March 22, 2020 at 12:19:39 AM UTC-4, Jeff Liebermann
wrote:
On Sat, 21 Mar 2020 19:43:41 -0700 (PDT), Rick C
gnuarm.deletethisbit@gmail.com> wrote:

I have to wonder how all this will play into the debate of
universal healthcare.

Same as Hillary's Single Payer Health Plan. The congress critters
will butcher it with ammendments, riders, private bills, creative
financing, and ambiguous definitions to the point where nobody
will actually understand it. Also see Obama's Affordable Health
Care Act for another shining example of how it work. Whether yet
another such plan will pass has little to do with whether it will
provide good, affordable, timely, and universal medicine to
everyone, but rather what deals were made in order to get the votes
necessary to pass the act. See:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pork_barrel

You seem to be talking tactical issues. I'm wondering if this will
cause a fundamental shift in the issues involved. I don't know
there is enough interesting in universal healthcare for voters to
elect representatives to vote for any such bill. This catastrophe
may change that.

The UK and other countries figured out how to get there. Why are we
so lagging behind when it comes to healthcare?

But maybe these are orthogonal issues. The UK doesn't seem to be
doing any better fighting this disease than we are. It's the Asian
countries that seem to be doing much better. I guess after the
elections we may have a thorough post mortem (no pun intended) that
may give us some insight into what to change. Or maybe not.

I don't think the issues are orthogonal - it is merely that a reasonable
universal healthcare system is not sufficient for dealing with an
epidemic. You need a decent health care system, and a competent
government. The UK has one but not the other. The USA has neither.
Norway has both, and is doing okay. And there's a fair degree of luck
involved too.

It is so discouraging to see a government so inept.

 

Rick C <gnuarm.deletethisbit@gmail.com> wrote in
news:dad50105-12b9-439a-85f8-fc4cf7f2491e@googlegroups.com:

Yes, the current approach is not working. The infection rate has
actually increased the last few days. We need mandatory lock down
of affected areas, but our leaders have no spines.

In this country we are fucked.

Nobody is interested in what you thingk, putz.

 

Rick C <gnuarm.deletethisbit@gmail.com> wrote in
news:8023349e-f9f5-426f-b58a-0cba339d1c37@googlegroups.com:

You missed what I meant. I mean that insurance is resaponsible
for
decades of overt inflation. Since their very inception.

I am not interested in what you meant.

Fuckyou, retarded twit. Go back to ignoring me. As if I ever gave a
fat flying fuck what you write or express interests in. Fuck you, you
little punk fuck jackass motherfucker.

 

higher mortality)

So if we upscale the death no. by 400:
(Sunday 11 am CET):
Italy: 4800 death could be estimated ca. 2 millon infected
France 560 death estimated ca. 220.000 infected
Washingtom 94 deaths estimated 400.000 infected
California: 27 death estimated ca. 12.000 infected?

there is an obvious typo for Washington: 100*400 is 40.000

 

Fatalities Confirmed cases

Germany 0.28% 44 16k
California 1.8% 18 1k
Japan 3.3% 33 1k
France 3.4% 370 11k
UK 4.8% 144 3k
Italy 8.5% 3400 41k

Source John Hopkins tabular realtime data for Covid-19:
https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6


--
Regards,
Martin Brown

Not sure our health system is sooo good or that we are thaaat healthy.

What about this hypothesis: The virus is roughly same mortality in all countries.
Germany has done a lot of testing. We confirm that (here) the infection rate is 400 times the fatality. So can we assume that holds everywhere and it is just the low testing rate in some places that make the mortality rate bad? (no tests == higher mortality)

So if we upscale the death no. by 400:
(Sunday 11 am CET):
Italy: 4800 death could be estimated ca. 2 millon infected
France 560 death estimated ca. 220.000 infected
Washingtom 94 deaths estimated 400.000 infected
California: 27 death estimated ca. 12.000 infected?

Also, press reports that new infections went down from 4000 Thursday to 2000 yesterday, since freedom of movement and meeting people was restricted in the states with highest infection rate. Significant, or just less testing done? If exponential, the 4000 new should have increased to 6000.

In any case, if we restrict movement now, the death rate can only go down in about 10 days. (Today's dead people were infected minimum 10 days ago).

 

[Bill Sloman]

On Sunday, March 22, 2020 at 9:52:56 PM UTC+11, buec...@gmail.com wrote:

Fatalities Confirmed cases

Germany 0.28% 44 16k
California 1.8% 18 1k
Japan 3.3% 33 1k
France 3.4% 370 11k
UK 4.8% 144 3k
Italy 8.5% 3400 41k

Source John Hopkins tabular realtime data for Covid-19:
https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

Not sure our health system is sooo good or that we are thaaat healthy.

What about this hypothesis: The virus is roughly same mortality in all countries.

Not remotely true. Mortality depends on age, and different population have different age structures.

> Germany has done a lot of testing. We confirm that (here) the infection rate is 400 times the fatality.

Where there's not a lot of obesity and type 2 diabetes.

> So can we assume that holds everywhere and it is just the low testing rate in some places that make the mortality rate bad? (no tests == higher mortality)

Probably not.

So if we upscale the death no. by 400:
(Sunday 11 am CET):
Italy: 4800 death could be estimated ca. 2 millon infected
France 560 death estimated ca. 220.000 infected
Washingtom 94 deaths estimated 400.000 infected
California: 27 death estimated ca. 12.000 infected?

Also, press reports that new infections went down from 4000 Thursday to 2000 yesterday, since freedom of movement and meeting people was restricted in the states with highest infection rate. Significant, or just less testing done? If exponential, the 4000 new should have increased to 6000.

The new infections detected today - in symptomatic patients - reflects the number of people infected five or more days ago, because it takes that long for symptoms to become obvious, or for there to be enough virus particles in the infected person's saliva for testing to pick them up.

And your numbers for new infections seem a bit odd.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

The 21st March number - 4824 - is less than the 20th March number - 5594. We aren't looking at a mathematical function here, but test results from a bunch of people who happen to have gone to the doctor and got tested.

Italy had a similar sort of drop from the 15th March to the 16th March, but it didn't last.

> In any case, if we restrict movement now, the death rate can only go down in about 10 days. (Today's dead people were infected minimum 10 days ago).

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/

gives a range of 6-41 days from first symptoms to death. It depends on age and the median seems to be shorter the over 70s - median 11.5 days - than in younger people (median 20 days).

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

 

There is not so much obesity in Italy or Spain or France or Switzerland. Social habits of greeting and hugging may be different and might have eased spreading of the virus. Insofar, the 'stiff' German way might actually be helpful.

Infected people in Germany - initially - might have been more healthy than elsewhere, because many brought it from journeys and business trips and skying, so they must have some resilience to start with (otherwise they wouldn't do sports). When the numbers were low enough to identify the infection chains, 'most' infections came that way.
Now it is wide spread over all age groups. My state, especially my town, bordering an official risk area with workers going back and forth, just took lead in German infections per 100.000.

 

[Rick C]

On Sunday, March 22, 2020 at 6:52:56 AM UTC-4, buec...@gmail.com wrote:

Fatalities Confirmed cases

Germany 0.28% 44 16k
California 1.8% 18 1k
Japan 3.3% 33 1k
France 3.4% 370 11k
UK 4.8% 144 3k
Italy 8.5% 3400 41k

Source John Hopkins tabular realtime data for Covid-19:
https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6


--
Regards,
Martin Brown

Not sure our health system is sooo good or that we are thaaat healthy.

What about this hypothesis: The virus is roughly same mortality in all countries.
Germany has done a lot of testing. We confirm that (here) the infection rate is 400 times the fatality. So can we assume that holds everywhere and it is just the low testing rate in some places that make the mortality rate bad? (no tests == higher mortality)

So if we upscale the death no. by 400:
(Sunday 11 am CET):
Italy: 4800 death could be estimated ca. 2 millon infected
France 560 death estimated ca. 220.000 infected
Washingtom 94 deaths estimated 400.000 infected
California: 27 death estimated ca. 12.000 infected?

There are two issues with this argument. One is that the actual mortality rate per infected person is not so important. The other is the number of dead is a time sensitive matter. With different growth rates in different countries the apparent ratio will vary. Since the number of infected varies hugely on how the testing is done, it's just not a useful ratio.

China is the only country to provide useful death information as their infection dies down. They have a 3.4% number, but because of the testing discrepancies that's not a useful number.


> Also, press reports that new infections went down from 4000 Thursday to 2000 yesterday, since freedom of movement and meeting people was restricted in the states with highest infection rate. Significant, or just less testing done? If exponential, the 4000 new should have increased to 6000.

Your numbers aren't for the US. Are you talking about Germany? In that case your days are off, 4,500 Friday, 2,500 Saturday.


> In any case, if we restrict movement now, the death rate can only go down in about 10 days. (Today's dead people were infected minimum 10 days ago).

Yup, but the number of new infections can go down in five days or so showing that it is working.

--

Rick C.

+-+- Get 2,000 miles of free Supercharging
+-+- Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

 

[Rick C]

On Sunday, March 22, 2020 at 5:32:13 AM UTC-4, David Brown wrote:

I don't think the issues are orthogonal - it is merely that a reasonable
universal healthcare system is not sufficient for dealing with an
epidemic. You need a decent health care system, and a competent
government. The UK has one but not the other. The USA has neither.
Norway has both, and is doing okay. And there's a fair degree of luck
involved too.

You are pretty full of crap. The US does have an issue of paying for healthcare, but it certainly has a world class healthcare system. So your argument is total BS.

--

Rick C.

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