OT: Stockmarket falls >33% in just a couple of weeks!

On Mon, 23 Mar 2020 13:15:29 +0100, David Brown
<david.brown@hesbynett.no> wrote:

If the lockdown is in force for 3-12 months, what effects does this
have on people's mental health ? What about the national economy ?

How many will be killed by domestic violence when people are forced to
look at each other indoors for months ?

Do you prefer people to be poor and annoyed by their isolation, or do
you prefer them to be dead?

What is the death rate ?

If seasonal flu has a 0.1 % death rate, what is the death rate for
this virus ?

If it is also 0.1 %, in Italy with 5500 deaths this would suggest that
at least 5 million has gotten the infection, a much larger number than
the official number of infected.

 

[Bill Sloman]

On Tuesday, March 24, 2020 at 12:35:39 AM UTC+11, upsid...@downunder.com wrote:

On Mon, 23 Mar 2020 13:15:29 +0100, David Brown
david.brown@hesbynett.no> wrote:

If the lockdown is in force for 3-12 months, what effects does this
have on people's mental health ? What about the national economy ?

How many will be killed by domestic violence when people are forced to
look at each other indoors for months ?

Do you prefer people to be poor and annoyed by their isolation, or do
you prefer them to be dead?

What is the death rate?

An order of magnitude higher than seasonal flu, but it's a bit early to be all that precise

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/

If seasonal flu has a 0.1 % death rate, what is the death rate for
this virus ?

If it is also 0.1 %, in Italy with 5500 deaths this would suggest that
at least 5 million has gotten the infection, a much larger number than
the official number of infected.

The death is clearly higher than 0.1%. One of the complications is that the death rate is age-dependent, and Italy - with its relatively elderly population - is being hit particularly hard.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

 

[David Brown]

On 23/03/2020 14:35, upsidedown@downunder.com wrote:

On Mon, 23 Mar 2020 13:15:29 +0100, David Brown
david.brown@hesbynett.no> wrote:

If the lockdown is in force for 3-12 months, what effects does this
have on people's mental health ? What about the national economy ?

How many will be killed by domestic violence when people are forced to
look at each other indoors for months ?

Do you prefer people to be poor and annoyed by their isolation, or do
you prefer them to be dead?

What is the death rate ?

If seasonal flu has a 0.1 % death rate, what is the death rate for
this virus ?

Current estimates are 0.5% to 1%, but they are only estimates, and it
depends a lot on the circumstances. The trouble is, once hospitals
start getting overwhelmed the death rate rises very quickly. The
hospitalisation rate is something like 10% to 20% (again, accurate
numbers are very difficult to get). Once hospitals are beyond capacity,
those that could have been cured in hospital now die.

We can expect the outlook to improve somewhat as therapeutic drugs get
tested and established, reduced the load on hospitals. Or possibly
mutations in the virus will make things worse.

Either way, this is not the flu, and a lot of people /will/ die before
it is over. Many will die of the disease, many of these will die
because people don't take it seriously and the numbers get out of
control. Many will die from indirect effects (such as people annoying
each other to death), and if there isn't a good enough lockdown, people
will die from anarchy and lawlessness.

If it is also 0.1 %, in Italy with 5500 deaths this would suggest that
at least 5 million has gotten the infection, a much larger number than
the official number of infected.

 

On Mon, 23 Mar 2020 06:57:07 -0700 (PDT), Bill Sloman
<bill.sloman@ieee.org> wrote:

On Tuesday, March 24, 2020 at 12:35:39 AM UTC+11, upsid...@downunder.com wrote:
On Mon, 23 Mar 2020 13:15:29 +0100, David Brown
david.brown@hesbynett.no> wrote:

If the lockdown is in force for 3-12 months, what effects does this
have on people's mental health ? What about the national economy ?

How many will be killed by domestic violence when people are forced to
look at each other indoors for months ?

Do you prefer people to be poor and annoyed by their isolation, or do
you prefer them to be dead?

What is the death rate?

An order of magnitude higher than seasonal flu, but it's a bit early to be all that precise

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/

That is weeks old data from China.

The problem is that you do not know the number of people infected,
only number of persons tested positive. If the mortality rate is
calculated as deaths / tested_positive, you get a high mortality rate.
To get a true mortality rate, you would need to test he whole
population on a daily or at least weekly basis.

If seasonal flu has a 0.1 % death rate, what is the death rate for
this virus ?

If it is also 0.1 %, in Italy with 5500 deaths this would suggest that
at least 5 million has gotten the infection, a much larger number than
the official number of infected.

The death is clearly higher than 0.1%. One of the complications is that the death rate is age-dependent, and Italy - with its relatively elderly population - is being hit particularly hard.

You have to check the absolute number of deaths at the end of spring
and compare it to previous years.

 

On Monday, March 23, 2020 at 12:51:48 PM UTC-4, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:

On Mon, 23 Mar 2020 13:15:29 +0100, David Brown
david.brown@hesbynett.no> wrote:

On 23/03/2020 12:18, upsidedown@downunder.com wrote:
On Mon, 23 Mar 2020 11:33:18 +0100, David Brown
david.brown@hesbynett.no> wrote:

On 22/03/2020 22:52, Lasse Langwadt Christensen wrote:
søndag den 22. marts 2020 kl. 22.30.45 UTC+1 skrev Rick C:
On Sunday, March 22, 2020 at 9:13:17 AM UTC-4, mpm wrote:
On Saturday, March 21, 2020 at 11:39:25 PM UTC-4, Rick C wrote:
Lock down the country, shut the factories and any non-essential business and the impact to everyone is less, including the economy once we can reopen.

Wouldn't that require that the rest of the world do the same?

Or are you counting on the US government to keep the virus out of the US once we isolate it out of existence domestically? I submit that's not a viable plan, as recent history clearly demonstrates.

How can we re-open America, while preventing re-infection?

It's only non-viable if you fail to keep restrictions on international travel up. Trump supporters are happy to note that was the first action of the Feds in this fiasco, restricting travel with the source of the infection.

If we keep all international travel restrictions in place we can keep from being reinfected until the plague is over in the rest of the world.

It's no different than locking down a city or state. Do you really not understand that?


people, drugs and what not that shouldn't be crossing borders does it all
the time, what makes this different?

without a cure or vaccine it only takes one to restart this whole nightmare


You need to lock down the country (this applies to /all/ counties)
entirely until the spreading factor is low enough that it /mostly/ dies
away.

When do you expect this to happen ? June or November or even later ?

I don't know. But I do know that you have to wait that long - whether
it be June, November, or in three years' time (unless a vaccine is
available first).

If it is multiplying 10x per week, there will be over 10^150 infected
people in three years.

OMG, that would be >10% of the population of California! --Gavin Newsom

Quick, raise everyone's taxes! (Taxes fix everything.)

Cheers,
James

 

On Mon, 23 Mar 2020 11:33:18 +0100, David Brown
<david.brown@hesbynett.no> wrote:

On 22/03/2020 22:52, Lasse Langwadt Christensen wrote:
sřndag den 22. marts 2020 kl. 22.30.45 UTC+1 skrev Rick C:
On Sunday, March 22, 2020 at 9:13:17 AM UTC-4, mpm wrote:
On Saturday, March 21, 2020 at 11:39:25 PM UTC-4, Rick C wrote:
Lock down the country, shut the factories and any non-essential business and the impact to everyone is less, including the economy once we can reopen.

Wouldn't that require that the rest of the world do the same?

Or are you counting on the US government to keep the virus out of the US once we isolate it out of existence domestically? I submit that's not a viable plan, as recent history clearly demonstrates.

How can we re-open America, while preventing re-infection?

It's only non-viable if you fail to keep restrictions on international travel up. Trump supporters are happy to note that was the first action of the Feds in this fiasco, restricting travel with the source of the infection.

If we keep all international travel restrictions in place we can keep from being reinfected until the plague is over in the rest of the world.

It's no different than locking down a city or state. Do you really not understand that?


people, drugs and what not that shouldn't be crossing borders does it all
the time, what makes this different?

without a cure or vaccine it only takes one to restart this whole nightmare


You need to lock down the country (this applies to /all/ counties)
entirely until the spreading factor is low enough that it /mostly/ dies
away. Then you can re-open inside the country, with limitations, and
partially re-open borders with tight controls. This will not eliminate
the virus - no lockdown will eliminate it. But that's not the aim. The
aim is to make sure you don't have uncontrollable spread that overwhelms
the heath service. It is inevitable that outbreaks will re-occur,
whether coming in from abroad or latent patches inside the country. You
need to have enough control that when this happens, the outbreak areas
are locked down again as necessary.

It is not until there is a vaccine that we will be able to get rid of
the virus.

All flu viruses burn out on their own. Several studies show that C19
has the usual winter flu effect, much less virulent in warm weather.

Enough lockdown might succeed in pushing the pandemic into next
winter. And wreck economies for a lot longer.



--

John Larkin Highland Technology, Inc

The cork popped merrily, and Lord Peter rose to his feet.
"Bunter", he said, "I give you a toast. The triumph of Instinct over Reason"

 

On Mon, 23 Mar 2020 13:15:29 +0100, David Brown
<david.brown@hesbynett.no> wrote:

On 23/03/2020 12:18, upsidedown@downunder.com wrote:
On Mon, 23 Mar 2020 11:33:18 +0100, David Brown
david.brown@hesbynett.no> wrote:

On 22/03/2020 22:52, Lasse Langwadt Christensen wrote:
sřndag den 22. marts 2020 kl. 22.30.45 UTC+1 skrev Rick C:
On Sunday, March 22, 2020 at 9:13:17 AM UTC-4, mpm wrote:
On Saturday, March 21, 2020 at 11:39:25 PM UTC-4, Rick C wrote:
Lock down the country, shut the factories and any non-essential business and the impact to everyone is less, including the economy once we can reopen.

Wouldn't that require that the rest of the world do the same?

Or are you counting on the US government to keep the virus out of the US once we isolate it out of existence domestically? I submit that's not a viable plan, as recent history clearly demonstrates.

How can we re-open America, while preventing re-infection?

It's only non-viable if you fail to keep restrictions on international travel up. Trump supporters are happy to note that was the first action of the Feds in this fiasco, restricting travel with the source of the infection.

If we keep all international travel restrictions in place we can keep from being reinfected until the plague is over in the rest of the world.

It's no different than locking down a city or state. Do you really not understand that?


people, drugs and what not that shouldn't be crossing borders does it all
the time, what makes this different?

without a cure or vaccine it only takes one to restart this whole nightmare


You need to lock down the country (this applies to /all/ counties)
entirely until the spreading factor is low enough that it /mostly/ dies
away.

When do you expect this to happen ? June or November or even later ?

I don't know. But I do know that you have to wait that long - whether
it be June, November, or in three years' time (unless a vaccine is
available first).

If it is multiplying 10x per week, there will be over 10^150 infected
people in three years.



--

John Larkin Highland Technology, Inc

The cork popped merrily, and Lord Peter rose to his feet.
"Bunter", he said, "I give you a toast. The triumph of Instinct over Reason"

 

[Robert Baer]

jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:

On Sat, 21 Mar 2020 19:47:49 -0700 (PDT), Whoey Louie
trader4@optonline.net> wrote:

On Saturday, March 21, 2020 at 11:04:07 AM UTC-4, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Sat, 21 Mar 2020 01:11:32 +0000, Cursitor Doom
curd@notformail.com> wrote:

Some historic records being smashed here, along with hard-working
people's retirement dreams....

https://tinyurl.com/wjbyxq5

Too many sharks in this ocean for the small fish to survive. Stock
markets are rigged. If you have no insider info like the big boys have
access to, you get skinned alive.
Glad I sold out of this fake shit-show decades ago. :-D

The various national banks, run by economists, have pushed interest
rates down to zero to pump the stock market, and become addicted to
continuous "stimulus." That's deliberate design for crashes.

Funny, your hero Trump has been trying to bully the fed to lower interest
rates for a long time.

I have no heroes, and I think he is wrong on this one. But it helps
his re-election prospects if we minimize the crash. Long-term thinking
is discouraged in politics.


They had been slowly raising them, he said it
was terrible. And the fed hasn;t kept rates low to boost the stock
market, they have kept them low because inflation remains low and the
economy is only growing 2.7%.

Economists enjoy turning big knobs in a chaotic system that nobody
understands.

Low interest rates allow governments to borrow without limits. At zero
interest rate, you can borrow all you want forever.





By accident, I got mostly into cash a few months ago, and didn't get
around to deciding where to re-invest.

Yes, unless the way overpriced market recovers, a lot of cities and
pension funds and 401Ks will be hit hard. That's the sorts of things
that politicians and their economist friends do for us.


Absurd. The market is down because the economy is shutting down around
the world because of the coronavirus. The denial runs deep in this one...

We were overdue for a crash. Something would have triggered it sooner
or later. The stock market is a relaxation oscillator.


....and since the market has gone down so far, NOBODY is relaxing.

 

On Mon, 23 Mar 2020 10:22:58 -0700 (PDT), dagmargoodboat@yahoo.com
wrote:

On Monday, March 23, 2020 at 12:51:48 PM UTC-4, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Mon, 23 Mar 2020 13:15:29 +0100, David Brown
david.brown@hesbynett.no> wrote:

On 23/03/2020 12:18, upsidedown@downunder.com wrote:
On Mon, 23 Mar 2020 11:33:18 +0100, David Brown
david.brown@hesbynett.no> wrote:

On 22/03/2020 22:52, Lasse Langwadt Christensen wrote:
sřndag den 22. marts 2020 kl. 22.30.45 UTC+1 skrev Rick C:
On Sunday, March 22, 2020 at 9:13:17 AM UTC-4, mpm wrote:
On Saturday, March 21, 2020 at 11:39:25 PM UTC-4, Rick C wrote:
Lock down the country, shut the factories and any non-essential business and the impact to everyone is less, including the economy once we can reopen.

Wouldn't that require that the rest of the world do the same?

Or are you counting on the US government to keep the virus out of the US once we isolate it out of existence domestically? I submit that's not a viable plan, as recent history clearly demonstrates.

How can we re-open America, while preventing re-infection?

It's only non-viable if you fail to keep restrictions on international travel up. Trump supporters are happy to note that was the first action of the Feds in this fiasco, restricting travel with the source of the infection.

If we keep all international travel restrictions in place we can keep from being reinfected until the plague is over in the rest of the world.

It's no different than locking down a city or state. Do you really not understand that?


people, drugs and what not that shouldn't be crossing borders does it all
the time, what makes this different?

without a cure or vaccine it only takes one to restart this whole nightmare


You need to lock down the country (this applies to /all/ counties)
entirely until the spreading factor is low enough that it /mostly/ dies
away.

When do you expect this to happen ? June or November or even later ?

I don't know. But I do know that you have to wait that long - whether
it be June, November, or in three years' time (unless a vaccine is
available first).

If it is multiplying 10x per week, there will be over 10^150 infected
people in three years.

OMG, that would be >10% of the population of California! --Gavin Newsom

The problem is that too many people just don't understand exponential
growth.



--

John Larkin Highland Technology, Inc

The cork popped merrily, and Lord Peter rose to his feet.
"Bunter", he said, "I give you a toast. The triumph of Instinct over Reason"

 

On Mon, 23 Mar 2020 10:51:29 -0700, Robert Baer
<robertbaer@localnet.com> wrote:

jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Sat, 21 Mar 2020 19:47:49 -0700 (PDT), Whoey Louie
trader4@optonline.net> wrote:

On Saturday, March 21, 2020 at 11:04:07 AM UTC-4, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Sat, 21 Mar 2020 01:11:32 +0000, Cursitor Doom
curd@notformail.com> wrote:

Some historic records being smashed here, along with hard-working
people's retirement dreams....

https://tinyurl.com/wjbyxq5

Too many sharks in this ocean for the small fish to survive. Stock
markets are rigged. If you have no insider info like the big boys have
access to, you get skinned alive.
Glad I sold out of this fake shit-show decades ago. :-D

The various national banks, run by economists, have pushed interest
rates down to zero to pump the stock market, and become addicted to
continuous "stimulus." That's deliberate design for crashes.

Funny, your hero Trump has been trying to bully the fed to lower interest
rates for a long time.

I have no heroes, and I think he is wrong on this one. But it helps
his re-election prospects if we minimize the crash. Long-term thinking
is discouraged in politics.


They had been slowly raising them, he said it
was terrible. And the fed hasn;t kept rates low to boost the stock
market, they have kept them low because inflation remains low and the
economy is only growing 2.7%.

Economists enjoy turning big knobs in a chaotic system that nobody
understands.

Low interest rates allow governments to borrow without limits. At zero
interest rate, you can borrow all you want forever.





By accident, I got mostly into cash a few months ago, and didn't get
around to deciding where to re-invest.

Yes, unless the way overpriced market recovers, a lot of cities and
pension funds and 401Ks will be hit hard. That's the sorts of things
that politicians and their economist friends do for us.


Absurd. The market is down because the economy is shutting down around
the world because of the coronavirus. The denial runs deep in this one...

We were overdue for a crash. Something would have triggered it sooner
or later. The stock market is a relaxation oscillator.


...and since the market has gone down so far, NOBODY is relaxing.

I'm relaxed!

Too relaxed. I'd rather be back with the crew at work.



--

John Larkin Highland Technology, Inc

The cork popped merrily, and Lord Peter rose to his feet.
"Bunter", he said, "I give you a toast. The triumph of Instinct over Reason"

 

[Rick C]

On Monday, March 23, 2020 at 2:09:34 PM UTC-4, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:

On Mon, 23 Mar 2020 10:22:58 -0700 (PDT), dagmargoodboat@yahoo.com
wrote:

On Monday, March 23, 2020 at 12:51:48 PM UTC-4, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Mon, 23 Mar 2020 13:15:29 +0100, David Brown
david.brown@hesbynett.no> wrote:

On 23/03/2020 12:18, upsidedown@downunder.com wrote:
On Mon, 23 Mar 2020 11:33:18 +0100, David Brown
david.brown@hesbynett.no> wrote:

On 22/03/2020 22:52, Lasse Langwadt Christensen wrote:
søndag den 22. marts 2020 kl. 22.30.45 UTC+1 skrev Rick C:
On Sunday, March 22, 2020 at 9:13:17 AM UTC-4, mpm wrote:
On Saturday, March 21, 2020 at 11:39:25 PM UTC-4, Rick C wrote:
Lock down the country, shut the factories and any non-essential business and the impact to everyone is less, including the economy once we can reopen.

Wouldn't that require that the rest of the world do the same?

Or are you counting on the US government to keep the virus out of the US once we isolate it out of existence domestically? I submit that's not a viable plan, as recent history clearly demonstrates.

How can we re-open America, while preventing re-infection?

It's only non-viable if you fail to keep restrictions on international travel up. Trump supporters are happy to note that was the first action of the Feds in this fiasco, restricting travel with the source of the infection.

If we keep all international travel restrictions in place we can keep from being reinfected until the plague is over in the rest of the world.

It's no different than locking down a city or state. Do you really not understand that?


people, drugs and what not that shouldn't be crossing borders does it all
the time, what makes this different?

without a cure or vaccine it only takes one to restart this whole nightmare


You need to lock down the country (this applies to /all/ counties)
entirely until the spreading factor is low enough that it /mostly/ dies
away.

When do you expect this to happen ? June or November or even later ?

I don't know. But I do know that you have to wait that long - whether
it be June, November, or in three years' time (unless a vaccine is
available first).

If it is multiplying 10x per week, there will be over 10^150 infected
people in three years.

OMG, that would be >10% of the population of California! --Gavin Newsom


The problem is that too many people just don't understand exponential
growth.

Exactly correct.

--

Rick C.

-+-+ Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
-+-+ Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

 

[Michael Terrell]

On Monday, March 23, 2020 at 2:10:58 PM UTC-4, John Larkin wrote:

I'm relaxed!

Too relaxed. I'd rather be back with the crew at work.

www.archive.org and www.Gutenberg.org have a wealth of out of copyright books for free reading if you get bored. I love classic Science Fiction (Space Opera) and early electrical engineering books.

If you want to see some really bad circuits, www.americanradiohistory.com is an archive of thousands of old hobby electronics magazines.

 

Rick C <gnuarm.deletethisbit@gmail.com> wrote in
news:30821a97-ca7d-4fef-a492-81b8ddbbf02b@googlegroups.com:

On Monday, March 23, 2020 at 2:09:34 PM UTC-4,
jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Mon, 23 Mar 2020 10:22:58 -0700 (PDT),
dagmargoodboat@yahoo.com wrote:

On Monday, March 23, 2020 at 12:51:48 PM UTC-4,
jla...@highlandsniptechn
ology.com wrote:
On Mon, 23 Mar 2020 13:15:29 +0100, David Brown
david.brown@hesbynett.no> wrote:

On 23/03/2020 12:18, upsidedown@downunder.com wrote:
On Mon, 23 Mar 2020 11:33:18 +0100, David Brown
david.brown@hesbynett.no> wrote:

On 22/03/2020 22:52, Lasse Langwadt Christensen wrote:
søndag den 22. marts 2020 kl. 22.30.45 UTC+1 skrev Rick
C:
On Sunday, March 22, 2020 at 9:13:17 AM UTC-4, mpm
wrote:
On Saturday, March 21, 2020 at 11:39:25 PM UTC-4, Rick
C wrote:
Lock down the country, shut the factories and any
non-essentia
l business and the impact to everyone is less, including the
economy once we can reopen.

Wouldn't that require that the rest of the world do the
same?

Or are you counting on the US government to keep the
virus out
of the US once we isolate it out of existence domestically? I
submit that's not a viable plan, as recent history clearly
demonstrates.

How can we re-open America, while preventing
re-infection?

It's only non-viable if you fail to keep restrictions on
interna
tional travel up. Trump supporters are happy to note that was the
first action of the Feds in this fiasco, restricting travel with
the source of the infection.

If we keep all international travel restrictions in
place we can
keep from being reinfected until the plague is over in the rest
of the world.

It's no different than locking down a city or state. Do
you rea
lly not understand that?


people, drugs and what not that shouldn't be crossing
borders doe
s it all
the time, what makes this different?

without a cure or vaccine it only takes one to restart
this whole
nightmare


You need to lock down the country (this applies to /all/
counties) entirely until the spreading factor is low
enough that it /mostly/
dies
away.

When do you expect this to happen ? June or November or
even later
?

I don't know. But I do know that you have to wait that long
- whethe
r
it be June, November, or in three years' time (unless a
vaccine is available first).

If it is multiplying 10x per week, there will be over 10^150
infected people in three years.

OMG, that would be >10% of the population of California! --Gavin
Newsom


The problem is that too many people just don't understand
exponential growth.

Exactly correct.

That's what I told her, but she really didn't believe me until I
showed her. ;-)

Then, the only thing she seemed to like saying was "Don't!...
Stop!... Don't:... Stop!... I could never seem to get the
smile off her face and her mood was exponentially better.

 

Rick C <gnuarm.deletethisbit@gmail.com> wrote in
news:30821a97-ca7d-4fef-a492-81b8ddbbf02b@googlegroups.com:

On Monday, March 23, 2020 at 2:09:34 PM UTC-4,
jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Mon, 23 Mar 2020 10:22:58 -0700 (PDT),
dagmargoodboat@yahoo.com wrote:

On Monday, March 23, 2020 at 12:51:48 PM UTC-4,
jla...@highlandsniptechn
ology.com wrote:
On Mon, 23 Mar 2020 13:15:29 +0100, David Brown
david.brown@hesbynett.no> wrote:

On 23/03/2020 12:18, upsidedown@downunder.com wrote:
On Mon, 23 Mar 2020 11:33:18 +0100, David Brown
david.brown@hesbynett.no> wrote:

On 22/03/2020 22:52, Lasse Langwadt Christensen wrote:
søndag den 22. marts 2020 kl. 22.30.45 UTC+1 skrev Rick
C:
On Sunday, March 22, 2020 at 9:13:17 AM UTC-4, mpm
wrote:
On Saturday, March 21, 2020 at 11:39:25 PM UTC-4, Rick
C wrote:
Lock down the country, shut the factories and any
non-essentia
l business and the impact to everyone is less, including the
economy once we can reopen.

Wouldn't that require that the rest of the world do the
same?

Or are you counting on the US government to keep the
virus out
of the US once we isolate it out of existence domestically? I
submit that's not a viable plan, as recent history clearly
demonstrates.

How can we re-open America, while preventing
re-infection?

It's only non-viable if you fail to keep restrictions on
interna
tional travel up. Trump supporters are happy to note that was the
first action of the Feds in this fiasco, restricting travel with
the source of the infection.

If we keep all international travel restrictions in
place we can
keep from being reinfected until the plague is over in the rest
of the world.

It's no different than locking down a city or state. Do
you rea
lly not understand that?


people, drugs and what not that shouldn't be crossing
borders doe
s it all
the time, what makes this different?

without a cure or vaccine it only takes one to restart
this whole
nightmare


You need to lock down the country (this applies to /all/
counties) entirely until the spreading factor is low
enough that it /mostly/
dies
away.

When do you expect this to happen ? June or November or
even later
?

I don't know. But I do know that you have to wait that long
- whethe
r
it be June, November, or in three years' time (unless a
vaccine is available first).

If it is multiplying 10x per week, there will be over 10^150
infected people in three years.

OMG, that would be >10% of the population of California! --Gavin
Newsom


The problem is that too many people just don't understand
exponential growth.

Exactly correct.

Want to understand it? Go out and buy stock in Proctor and Gamble or
Dixie or other paper products company.

I'll bet Italian stuff goes through the roof too. That $8 wedge of
Italian Parmesian is now $14. French stuff too.

Get ready to get exponentially screwed financially by the virus
after getting your health screwed exponentially by the virus.

 

On Monday, March 23, 2020 at 2:09:34 PM UTC-4, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:

On Mon, 23 Mar 2020 10:22:58 -0700 (PDT), dagmargoodboat@yahoo.com
wrote:

On Monday, March 23, 2020 at 12:51:48 PM UTC-4, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Mon, 23 Mar 2020 13:15:29 +0100, David Brown
david.brown@hesbynett.no> wrote:

On 23/03/2020 12:18, upsidedown@downunder.com wrote:
On Mon, 23 Mar 2020 11:33:18 +0100, David Brown
david.brown@hesbynett.no> wrote:

On 22/03/2020 22:52, Lasse Langwadt Christensen wrote:
søndag den 22. marts 2020 kl. 22.30.45 UTC+1 skrev Rick C:
On Sunday, March 22, 2020 at 9:13:17 AM UTC-4, mpm wrote:
On Saturday, March 21, 2020 at 11:39:25 PM UTC-4, Rick C wrote:
Lock down the country, shut the factories and any non-essential business and the impact to everyone is less, including the economy once we can reopen.

Wouldn't that require that the rest of the world do the same?

Or are you counting on the US government to keep the virus out of the US once we isolate it out of existence domestically? I submit that's not a viable plan, as recent history clearly demonstrates.

How can we re-open America, while preventing re-infection?

It's only non-viable if you fail to keep restrictions on international travel up. Trump supporters are happy to note that was the first action of the Feds in this fiasco, restricting travel with the source of the infection.

If we keep all international travel restrictions in place we can keep from being reinfected until the plague is over in the rest of the world.

It's no different than locking down a city or state. Do you really not understand that?


people, drugs and what not that shouldn't be crossing borders does it all
the time, what makes this different?

without a cure or vaccine it only takes one to restart this whole nightmare


You need to lock down the country (this applies to /all/ counties)
entirely until the spreading factor is low enough that it /mostly/ dies
away.

When do you expect this to happen ? June or November or even later ?

I don't know. But I do know that you have to wait that long - whether
it be June, November, or in three years' time (unless a vaccine is
available first).

If it is multiplying 10x per week, there will be over 10^150 infected
people in three years.

OMG, that would be >10% of the population of California! --Gavin Newsom


The problem is that too many people just don't understand exponential
growth.

Fertilize in the spring, water amply, and your exponentials will grow
just fine -- it's dirt simple.

Mike Bloomberg coulda toldjah that.

Cheers,
James

 

[Rick C]

On Monday, March 23, 2020 at 7:42:09 PM UTC-4, dagmarg...@yahoo.com wrote:

On Monday, March 23, 2020 at 2:09:34 PM UTC-4, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Mon, 23 Mar 2020 10:22:58 -0700 (PDT), dagmargoodboat@yahoo.com
wrote:

On Monday, March 23, 2020 at 12:51:48 PM UTC-4, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Mon, 23 Mar 2020 13:15:29 +0100, David Brown
david.brown@hesbynett.no> wrote:

On 23/03/2020 12:18, upsidedown@downunder.com wrote:
On Mon, 23 Mar 2020 11:33:18 +0100, David Brown
david.brown@hesbynett.no> wrote:

On 22/03/2020 22:52, Lasse Langwadt Christensen wrote:
søndag den 22. marts 2020 kl. 22.30.45 UTC+1 skrev Rick C:
On Sunday, March 22, 2020 at 9:13:17 AM UTC-4, mpm wrote:
On Saturday, March 21, 2020 at 11:39:25 PM UTC-4, Rick C wrote:
Lock down the country, shut the factories and any non-essential business and the impact to everyone is less, including the economy once we can reopen.

Wouldn't that require that the rest of the world do the same?

Or are you counting on the US government to keep the virus out of the US once we isolate it out of existence domestically? I submit that's not a viable plan, as recent history clearly demonstrates.

How can we re-open America, while preventing re-infection?

It's only non-viable if you fail to keep restrictions on international travel up. Trump supporters are happy to note that was the first action of the Feds in this fiasco, restricting travel with the source of the infection.

If we keep all international travel restrictions in place we can keep from being reinfected until the plague is over in the rest of the world.

It's no different than locking down a city or state. Do you really not understand that?


people, drugs and what not that shouldn't be crossing borders does it all
the time, what makes this different?

without a cure or vaccine it only takes one to restart this whole nightmare


You need to lock down the country (this applies to /all/ counties)
entirely until the spreading factor is low enough that it /mostly/ dies
away.

When do you expect this to happen ? June or November or even later ?

I don't know. But I do know that you have to wait that long - whether
it be June, November, or in three years' time (unless a vaccine is
available first).

If it is multiplying 10x per week, there will be over 10^150 infected
people in three years.

OMG, that would be >10% of the population of California! --Gavin Newsom


The problem is that too many people just don't understand exponential
growth.

Fertilize in the spring, water amply, and your exponentials will grow
just fine -- it's dirt simple.

Mike Bloomberg coulda toldjah that.

Sounds more like Chauncey Gardiner.

--

Rick C.

-++- Get 2,000 miles of free Supercharging
-++- Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

 

On Mon, 23 Mar 2020 16:42:03 -0700 (PDT), dagmargoodboat@yahoo.com
wrote:

On Monday, March 23, 2020 at 2:09:34 PM UTC-4, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Mon, 23 Mar 2020 10:22:58 -0700 (PDT), dagmargoodboat@yahoo.com
wrote:

On Monday, March 23, 2020 at 12:51:48 PM UTC-4, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Mon, 23 Mar 2020 13:15:29 +0100, David Brown
david.brown@hesbynett.no> wrote:

On 23/03/2020 12:18, upsidedown@downunder.com wrote:
On Mon, 23 Mar 2020 11:33:18 +0100, David Brown
david.brown@hesbynett.no> wrote:

On 22/03/2020 22:52, Lasse Langwadt Christensen wrote:
sřndag den 22. marts 2020 kl. 22.30.45 UTC+1 skrev Rick C:
On Sunday, March 22, 2020 at 9:13:17 AM UTC-4, mpm wrote:
On Saturday, March 21, 2020 at 11:39:25 PM UTC-4, Rick C wrote:
Lock down the country, shut the factories and any non-essential business and the impact to everyone is less, including the economy once we can reopen.

Wouldn't that require that the rest of the world do the same?

Or are you counting on the US government to keep the virus out of the US once we isolate it out of existence domestically? I submit that's not a viable plan, as recent history clearly demonstrates.

How can we re-open America, while preventing re-infection?

It's only non-viable if you fail to keep restrictions on international travel up. Trump supporters are happy to note that was the first action of the Feds in this fiasco, restricting travel with the source of the infection.

If we keep all international travel restrictions in place we can keep from being reinfected until the plague is over in the rest of the world.

It's no different than locking down a city or state. Do you really not understand that?


people, drugs and what not that shouldn't be crossing borders does it all
the time, what makes this different?

without a cure or vaccine it only takes one to restart this whole nightmare


You need to lock down the country (this applies to /all/ counties)
entirely until the spreading factor is low enough that it /mostly/ dies
away.

When do you expect this to happen ? June or November or even later ?

I don't know. But I do know that you have to wait that long - whether
it be June, November, or in three years' time (unless a vaccine is
available first).

If it is multiplying 10x per week, there will be over 10^150 infected
people in three years.

OMG, that would be >10% of the population of California! --Gavin Newsom


The problem is that too many people just don't understand exponential
growth.

Fertilize in the spring, water amply, and your exponentials will grow
just fine -- it's dirt simple.

Mike Bloomberg coulda toldjah that.

Cheers,
James

Right. Any moron can farm. And anybody who can shovel coal can learn
to code.

I wonder how many farm states Bloomberg lost the Dems.



--

John Larkin Highland Technology, Inc

The cork popped merrily, and Lord Peter rose to his feet.
"Bunter", he said, "I give you a toast. The triumph of Instinct over Reason"

 

[Bill Sloman]

On Tuesday, March 24, 2020 at 3:48:06 AM UTC+11, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:

On Mon, 23 Mar 2020 11:33:18 +0100, David Brown
david.brown@hesbynett.no> wrote:

On 22/03/2020 22:52, Lasse Langwadt Christensen wrote:
søndag den 22. marts 2020 kl. 22.30.45 UTC+1 skrev Rick C:
On Sunday, March 22, 2020 at 9:13:17 AM UTC-4, mpm wrote:
On Saturday, March 21, 2020 at 11:39:25 PM UTC-4, Rick C wrote:
Lock down the country, shut the factories and any non-essential business and the impact to everyone is less, including the economy once we can reopen.

Wouldn't that require that the rest of the world do the same?

Or are you counting on the US government to keep the virus out of the US once we isolate it out of existence domestically? I submit that's not a viable plan, as recent history clearly demonstrates.

How can we re-open America, while preventing re-infection?

It's only non-viable if you fail to keep restrictions on international travel up. Trump supporters are happy to note that was the first action of the Feds in this fiasco, restricting travel with the source of the infection.

If we keep all international travel restrictions in place we can keep from being reinfected until the plague is over in the rest of the world.

It's no different than locking down a city or state. Do you really not understand that?


people, drugs and what not that shouldn't be crossing borders does it all
the time, what makes this different?

without a cure or vaccine it only takes one to restart this whole nightmare


You need to lock down the country (this applies to /all/ counties)
entirely until the spreading factor is low enough that it /mostly/ dies
away. Then you can re-open inside the country, with limitations, and
partially re-open borders with tight controls. This will not eliminate
the virus - no lockdown will eliminate it. But that's not the aim. The
aim is to make sure you don't have uncontrollable spread that overwhelms
the heath service. It is inevitable that outbreaks will re-occur,
whether coming in from abroad or latent patches inside the country. You
need to have enough control that when this happens, the outbreak areas
are locked down again as necessary.

It is not until there is a vaccine that we will be able to get rid of
the virus.

All flu viruses burn out on their own.

Covid-19 isn't a flu virus.

Several studies show that C19
has the usual winter flu effect, much less virulent in warm weather.

So post a link to one of them. It's virulent enough in Australia in early autumn to be scaring the government into imposing a nationwide lock down.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/australia/

Enough lockdown might succeed in pushing the pandemic into next
winter. And wreck economies for a lot longer.

Enough lockdown in Hubei Province eliminated the virus completely. China is still seeing new cases, but they seem to be people flying home from infected areas, and they get tested and quarantined for 14-days even of they don't test positive when they get off the plane.

Nobody seems to be claimning that Hubei Province is back into full production yet, but the lockdown is clearly being wound back.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

 

[Bill Sloman]

On Tuesday, March 24, 2020 at 1:56:48 AM UTC+11, upsid...@downunder.com wrote:

On Mon, 23 Mar 2020 06:57:07 -0700 (PDT), Bill Sloman
bill.sloman@ieee.org> wrote:

On Tuesday, March 24, 2020 at 12:35:39 AM UTC+11, upsid...@downunder.com wrote:
On Mon, 23 Mar 2020 13:15:29 +0100, David Brown
david.brown@hesbynett.no> wrote:

If the lockdown is in force for 3-12 months, what effects does this
have on people's mental health ? What about the national economy ?

How many will be killed by domestic violence when people are forced to
look at each other indoors for months ?

Do you prefer people to be poor and annoyed by their isolation, or do
you prefer them to be dead?

What is the death rate?

An order of magnitude higher than seasonal flu, but it's a bit early to be all that precise

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/

That is weeks old data from China.

The worldometer data gets up-dated daily. Most of discussion of the mortality rate is based on Chinese data, because it is - as is discussed - harder to extract mortality data from situations where the number of people being hospitlaised is rising rapidly

The problem is that you do not know the number of people infected,
only number of persons tested positive. If the mortality rate is
calculated as deaths / tested_positive, you get a high mortality rate.
To get a true mortality rate, you would need to test he whole
population on a daily or at least weekly basis.

Not true. Once you have been infected and recovered, you test positive for antibodies against the virus for years.

You only die once, so the proportion who did get infected in Wuhan is measurable now, and the number who died is a matter of record.

If seasonal flu has a 0.1 % death rate, what is the death rate for
this virus ?

If it is also 0.1 %, in Italy with 5500 deaths this would suggest that
at least 5 million has gotten the infection, a much larger number than
the official number of infected.

The death is clearly higher than 0.1%. One of the complications is that the death rate is age-dependent, and Italy - with its relatively elderly population - is being hit particularly hard.

You have to check the absolute number of deaths at the end of spring
and compare it to previous years.

To do what?

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

 

[Bill Sloman]

On Tuesday, March 24, 2020 at 3:51:48 AM UTC+11, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:

On Mon, 23 Mar 2020 13:15:29 +0100, David Brown
david.brown@hesbynett.no> wrote:

On 23/03/2020 12:18, upsidedown@downunder.com wrote:
On Mon, 23 Mar 2020 11:33:18 +0100, David Brown
david.brown@hesbynett.no> wrote:

On 22/03/2020 22:52, Lasse Langwadt Christensen wrote:
søndag den 22. marts 2020 kl. 22.30.45 UTC+1 skrev Rick C:
On Sunday, March 22, 2020 at 9:13:17 AM UTC-4, mpm wrote:
On Saturday, March 21, 2020 at 11:39:25 PM UTC-4, Rick C wrote:
Lock down the country, shut the factories and any non-essential business and the impact to everyone is less, including the economy once we can reopen.

Wouldn't that require that the rest of the world do the same?

Or are you counting on the US government to keep the virus out of the US once we isolate it out of existence domestically? I submit that's not a viable plan, as recent history clearly demonstrates.

How can we re-open America, while preventing re-infection?

It's only non-viable if you fail to keep restrictions on international travel up. Trump supporters are happy to note that was the first action of the Feds in this fiasco, restricting travel with the source of the infection.

If we keep all international travel restrictions in place we can keep from being reinfected until the plague is over in the rest of the world.

It's no different than locking down a city or state. Do you really not understand that?


people, drugs and what not that shouldn't be crossing borders does it all
the time, what makes this different?

without a cure or vaccine it only takes one to restart this whole nightmare


You need to lock down the country (this applies to /all/ counties)
entirely until the spreading factor is low enough that it /mostly/ dies
away.

When do you expect this to happen ? June or November or even later ?

I don't know. But I do know that you have to wait that long - whether
it be June, November, or in three years' time (unless a vaccine is
available first).

If it is multiplying 10x per week, there will be over 10^150 infected
people in three years.

Quite how it's going to get to adjacent star systems is left as an exercise for the reader.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney