OT: Stockmarket falls >33% in just a couple of weeks!

[Piotr Wyderski]

dagmargoodboat@yahoo.com wrote:

When people are selling stocks and buying toilet paper,
it's time to be selling toilet paper and buying stocks
(This is a rare opportunity for making money--everything's on
sale.)

Hold your horses, the true skid is still ahead of us. You will soon have
plenty of time for buying, so ensure that you will have plenty of money
as well.

My exposure to stocks and bonds is exactly zero now. Waiting.

Additionally, we are just at the BRRR level today, but bravely speeding up:

https://brrr.money/

Best regards, Piotr

 

[Rick C]

On Wednesday, March 25, 2020 at 1:08:38 AM UTC-4, Flyguy wrote:

On Tuesday, March 24, 2020 at 4:53:45 PM UTC-7, Piotr Wyderski wrote:
dagmargoodboat@yahoo.com wrote:

When people are selling stocks and buying toilet paper,
it's time to be selling toilet paper and buying stocks
(This is a rare opportunity for making money--everything's on
sale.)

Hold your horses, the true skid is still ahead of us. You will soon have
plenty of time for buying, so ensure that you will have plenty of money
as well.

My exposure to stocks and bonds is exactly zero now. Waiting.

Additionally, we are just at the BRRR level today, but bravely speeding up:

https://brrr.money/

Best regards, Piotr

The stock market right now is a chaotic system with little hope of returning to normalcy in the near term - there are simply too many unknowns. Anytime the market moves 10%+ in a single day shows extremely divergent price discovery, the mechanism of market regulation (and I don't mean govermental).. I concluded that the market was over-bought last Dec and sold most stocks and switched (partially) to fixed income. A couple of weeks ago I decided that, too, was unstable and sold everything. The real economy is going to take several QUARTERS to return to a stable level, meaning a year or (probably) more.

People who claim the market is rigged are ignorant and in search of someone else to blame for their own inadequacies - I pity them.

One should always consider that the "market" is based on all the individual stocks. When the market is moving in a direction there are always contrarian movers. Getting out of the market is something to be done if you don't know any good stocks or if you are in funds where you don't control the investment.

I moved my 401k money out of the market even earlier than you I believe. But I don't think anyone foresaw a plague emerging from the Asian continent even if it has been covered in stories. At least not before February anyway.

The stocks I sold were because I felt Tesla was overvalued at 500. The market proved me wrong so I sold more at 900. I could have made more money by cashing in all of my investment, but I prefer to not have the large tax burden as regular income. This may turn out to be a very profitable year for me in my business and the tax rate can get very high. So once the market recovers, I expect to see my remaining investment back to 900 even if it is near the end of the year.

--

Rick C.

-+++ Get 2,000 miles of free Supercharging
-+++ Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

 

[Flyguy]

On Tuesday, March 24, 2020 at 4:53:45 PM UTC-7, Piotr Wyderski wrote:

dagmargoodboat@yahoo.com wrote:

When people are selling stocks and buying toilet paper,
it's time to be selling toilet paper and buying stocks
(This is a rare opportunity for making money--everything's on
sale.)

Hold your horses, the true skid is still ahead of us. You will soon have
plenty of time for buying, so ensure that you will have plenty of money
as well.

My exposure to stocks and bonds is exactly zero now. Waiting.

Additionally, we are just at the BRRR level today, but bravely speeding up:

https://brrr.money/

Best regards, Piotr

The stock market right now is a chaotic system with little hope of returning to normalcy in the near term - there are simply too many unknowns. Anytime the market moves 10%+ in a single day shows extremely divergent price discovery, the mechanism of market regulation (and I don't mean govermental). I concluded that the market was over-bought last Dec and sold most stocks and switched (partially) to fixed income. A couple of weeks ago I decided that, too, was unstable and sold everything. The real economy is going to take several QUARTERS to return to a stable level, meaning a year or (probably) more.

People who claim the market is rigged are ignorant and in search of someone else to blame for their own inadequacies - I pity them.

 

[Piotr Wyderski]

Flyguy wrote:

The stock market right now is a chaotic system with little hope of
returning to normalcy in the near term

Precisely, -12% today, +11% tomorrow. Convulsions. The economies are
going to collapse soon in response to the lockdowns; this is
unavoidable. Patience is a virtue, keep your fluidity high.

Best regards, Piotr

 

Piotr Wyderski <peter.pan@neverland.mil> wrote in
news:r5g3n0$1taa$1@gioia.aioe.org:

DecadentLinuxUserNumeroUno@decadence.org wrote:

This guy just told us to stay calm and piss up a rope.

It is actually quite simple to stay calm if one was lucky enough
to jump out of the plane mushing toward the ground early. Total
fluidity + some bullion makes me a somewhat optimistic guy. I
don't even own the currency of my own country, as it is among the
first to fall. I have kept the equivalent of some 1000 dollars for
grocery shopping.

USD is backed up by plutonium, EUR to some extent as well, CHF by
Milka bars. The Polish zloty is fiat money in the purest form.

Best regards, Piotr

Those African do-hickeys (dollars?) at piles of billions of them at
a thousandth of a penny each end up getting traded too. I laughed
when I found that out.

An easy one to make money at *was* moving jet fuel around over in
the euro / middle / eastern / indian theater.

So was that Chicken or Beef bullion? Hi! Floo-idity!

I have Apollo 11 Moon Landing Proof coins.

 

[Piotr Wyderski]

DecadentLinuxUserNumeroUno@decadence.org wrote:

> This guy just told us to stay calm and piss up a rope.

It is actually quite simple to stay calm if one was lucky enough to jump
out of the plane mushing toward the ground early. Total fluidity + some
bullion makes me a somewhat optimistic guy. I don't even own the
currency of my own country, as it is among the first to fall. I have
kept the equivalent of some 1000 dollars for grocery shopping.

USD is backed up by plutonium, EUR to some extent as well, CHF by Milka
bars. The Polish zloty is fiat money in the purest form.

Best regards, Piotr

 

Piotr Wyderski <peter.pan@neverland.mil> wrote in news:r5g13n$e2i$1
@gioia.aioe.org:

Flyguy wrote:

The stock market right now is a chaotic system with little hope of
returning to normalcy in the near term

Precisely, -12% today, +11% tomorrow. Convulsions. The economies are
going to collapse soon in response to the lockdowns; this is
unavoidable. Patience is a virtue, keep your fluidity high.

Best regards, Piotr

This guy just told us to stay calm and piss up a rope.

As all the ropes of the world drizzle their piss upon us.

 

Piotr Wyderski <peter.pan@neverland.mil> wrote in news:r5g13n$e2i$1
@gioia.aioe.org:

> Precisely, -12% today, +11% tomorrow. Convulsions.

You spelled Coronavulsions wrong...

 

[Michael Terrell]

On Wednesday, March 25, 2020 at 1:17:29 PM UTC-4, Piotr Wyderski wrote:

DecadentLinuxUserNumeroUno@decadence.org wrote:

This guy just told us to stay calm and piss up a rope.

It is actually quite simple to stay calm if one was lucky enough to jump
out of the plane mushing toward the ground early. Total fluidity + some
bullion makes me a somewhat optimistic guy. I don't even own the
currency of my own country, as it is among the first to fall. I have
kept the equivalent of some 1000 dollars for grocery shopping.

USD is backed up by plutonium, EUR to some extent as well, CHF by Milka
bars. The Polish zloty is fiat money in the purest form.

I thought that it was backed by Polish Sausage? My Polish friends will be so disappointed!;-)

 

[amdx]

On 3/25/2020 12:08 AM, Flyguy wrote:

On Tuesday, March 24, 2020 at 4:53:45 PM UTC-7, Piotr Wyderski wrote:
dagmargoodboat@yahoo.com wrote:

When people are selling stocks and buying toilet paper,
it's time to be selling toilet paper and buying stocks
(This is a rare opportunity for making money--everything's on
sale.)

Hold your horses, the true skid is still ahead of us. You will soon have
plenty of time for buying, so ensure that you will have plenty of money
as well.

My exposure to stocks and bonds is exactly zero now. Waiting.

Additionally, we are just at the BRRR level today, but bravely speeding up:

https://brrr.money/

Best regards, Piotr

The stock market right now is a chaotic system with little hope of returning to normalcy in the near term - there are simply too many unknowns. Anytime the market moves 10%+ in a single day shows extremely divergent price discovery, the mechanism of market regulation (and I don't mean governmental). I concluded that the market was over-bought last Dec and sold most stocks and switched (partially) to fixed income. A couple of weeks ago I decided that, too, was unstable and sold everything. The real economy is going to take several QUARTERS to return to a stable level, meaning a year or (probably) more.

People who claim the market is rigged are ignorant and in search of someone else to blame for their own inadequacies - I pity them.

I sold some of my LTCGs late last year for income and because I could
do it at 0% tax. I sold non taxable accounts on 2/28/20 because of Covid
19. I just bought back in today about 20% cheaper than I sold. I didn't
want to wait to long and buy back at a higher price than I sold for.
I don't know if I bought back to early and nobody does, I do know
that over the long term I now increased my shares on those purchases by 20%.
In the long run, I did good, next week or next month, maybe not, but
again, nobody knows!
btw, I don't buy individual stocks, I buy the total stock market thru
Vanguards VTSAX.

 

[Rick C]

On Wednesday, March 25, 2020 at 12:33:02 PM UTC-4, Piotr Wyderski wrote:

Flyguy wrote:

The stock market right now is a chaotic system with little hope of
returning to normalcy in the near term

Precisely, -12% today, +11% tomorrow. Convulsions. The economies are
going to collapse soon in response to the lockdowns; this is
unavoidable. Patience is a virtue, keep your fluidity high.

Strange take on things. Yesterday I predicted Tesla stock would climb on news of the relief bill compromise being worked out. It did and the stock rose well today as did the market.

Not chaotic or random although I suppose convulsions would be accurate much like the convulsions of a pole vaulter.

You just need to understand and the market is not completely without reason.. I've done very well with it. I've made almost $300,000 in the last year alone investing only $235,000. I plan for that to become a million in another year. The hard part is starting with enough seed money.

--

Rick C.

+--- Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
+--- Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

 

[Rick C]

On Wednesday, March 25, 2020 at 12:33:02 PM UTC-4, Piotr Wyderski wrote:

Flyguy wrote:

The stock market right now is a chaotic system with little hope of
returning to normalcy in the near term

Precisely, -12% today, +11% tomorrow. Convulsions. The economies are
going to collapse soon in response to the lockdowns; this is
unavoidable. Patience is a virtue, keep your fluidity high.

Oh yeah, it's not fluidity. I thought you meant hydrating. lol The term is liquid or liquidity.

If you think the markets are going to crash you need to get into bonds. They often do well when the market is crapping out. Or cash if you think the economy is really taking a crap... or gold/bullets/toilet paper if you think the world is coming to an end.

I think Tesla stock short is a good thing now. Long sometime later when the markets are starting to recover and you can get in cheap. If this crisis is over by next year Tesla will have recovered ALL of its value and then some. Nothing about this crisis will impact Tesla's future. Their sales figure is still low enough that even if buying cars drops 50%, there will be plenty of customers who will make the change to all electric. Their sales are still production limited. Yeah, it's that good.

--

Rick C.

+--+ Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
+--+ Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

 

[Flyguy]

On Wednesday, March 25, 2020 at 4:10:26 PM UTC-7, Rick C wrote:

On Wednesday, March 25, 2020 at 12:33:02 PM UTC-4, Piotr Wyderski wrote:
Flyguy wrote:

The stock market right now is a chaotic system with little hope of
returning to normalcy in the near term

Precisely, -12% today, +11% tomorrow. Convulsions. The economies are
going to collapse soon in response to the lockdowns; this is
unavoidable. Patience is a virtue, keep your fluidity high.

Oh yeah, it's not fluidity. I thought you meant hydrating. lol The term is liquid or liquidity.

If you think the markets are going to crash you need to get into bonds. They often do well when the market is crapping out. Or cash if you think the economy is really taking a crap... or gold/bullets/toilet paper if you think the world is coming to an end.

I think Tesla stock short is a good thing now. Long sometime later when the markets are starting to recover and you can get in cheap. If this crisis is over by next year Tesla will have recovered ALL of its value and then some. Nothing about this crisis will impact Tesla's future. Their sales figure is still low enough that even if buying cars drops 50%, there will be plenty of customers who will make the change to all electric. Their sales are still production limited. Yeah, it's that good.

--

Rick C.

+--+ Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
+--+ Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

High volatility is welcomed by traders because a lot of money can be made in a short period of time, but it is also as likely to lose a lot of money. All of the factors that will drive the virus are not known at this time; if you think otherwise go look at what happened during the 1918 Spanish Flu outbreak - there were three separate phases and the first phase was the MILDEST! And spare me the bullshit about the flu didn't originate in Spain.

 

[Cursitor Doom]

On Tue, 24 Mar 2020 22:41:17 -0700, Rick C wrote:

So once the market recovers, I expect to see my remaining
investment back to 900 even if it is near the end of the year.

"This time it's different" as some say. And it is. The debt levels are
going to be crippling with taxes to match. In the unlikely event things
return to 'normal' - or what passes for it nowadays - any gains you make
after tax will pretty nominal. And that's assuming that interest rates
won't rise *when* buyers of sovereign paper become risk-avoidant, which
at some point they must.

 

[Rick C]

On Sunday, March 29, 2020 at 1:23:34 PM UTC-4, Cursitor Doom wrote:

On Tue, 24 Mar 2020 22:41:17 -0700, Rick C wrote:

So once the market recovers, I expect to see my remaining
investment back to 900 even if it is near the end of the year.

"This time it's different" as some say. And it is. The debt levels are
going to be crippling with taxes to match. In the unlikely event things
return to 'normal' - or what passes for it nowadays - any gains you make
after tax will pretty nominal. And that's assuming that interest rates
won't rise *when* buyers of sovereign paper become risk-avoidant, which
at some point they must.

You are talking in vague generalities. Tesla stock is not like GM or Toyota. It is still a start up, valued by it's longer term potential rather than it's short term profits. I am expecting to respond well to any good news about restarting the economy at which point I will sell my next traunch. I am expecting a drop in price when Tesla reports their financials in May. In particular, if the markets and general economy are still on the drop, Tesla will be hit hard and I will put all the money back in.

While it is generally valued by its long term potential, it has a lot of emotional investors and overreacts. You could say when the NASDAQ sneezes, Tesla catches the flu. lol

In reality Tesla is a bit like a constant current source. A heavy load will drag it down, but it keeps coming back up.

By 2021 I expect to own $1 million of Tesla stock.

--

Rick C.

+-+- Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
+-+- Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209