OT: Stockmarket falls >33% in just a couple of weeks!

[Rick C]

On Sunday, March 22, 2020 at 5:52:32 PM UTC-4, Lasse Langwadt Christensen wrote:

søndag den 22. marts 2020 kl. 22.30.45 UTC+1 skrev Rick C:
On Sunday, March 22, 2020 at 9:13:17 AM UTC-4, mpm wrote:
On Saturday, March 21, 2020 at 11:39:25 PM UTC-4, Rick C wrote:
Lock down the country, shut the factories and any non-essential business and the impact to everyone is less, including the economy once we can reopen.

Wouldn't that require that the rest of the world do the same?

Or are you counting on the US government to keep the virus out of the US once we isolate it out of existence domestically? I submit that's not a viable plan, as recent history clearly demonstrates.

How can we re-open America, while preventing re-infection?

It's only non-viable if you fail to keep restrictions on international travel up. Trump supporters are happy to note that was the first action of the Feds in this fiasco, restricting travel with the source of the infection.

If we keep all international travel restrictions in place we can keep from being reinfected until the plague is over in the rest of the world.

It's no different than locking down a city or state. Do you really not understand that?


people, drugs and what not that shouldn't be crossing borders does it all
the time, what makes this different?

without a cure or vaccine it only takes one to restart this whole nightmare

Yes, all manner of things cross an open border. We don't need to have open borders until this virus is dealt with at a global level.

Do you really not see how we would act differently in the future to an outbreak than we did when this disease was unknown? If you can't understand that, there is not likely anything I can say that you would appreciate.

Read my other posts.

--

Rick C.

---- Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
---- Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

 

[Lasse Langwadt Christense]

søndag den 22. marts 2020 kl. 22.30.45 UTC+1 skrev Rick C:

On Sunday, March 22, 2020 at 9:13:17 AM UTC-4, mpm wrote:
On Saturday, March 21, 2020 at 11:39:25 PM UTC-4, Rick C wrote:
Lock down the country, shut the factories and any non-essential business and the impact to everyone is less, including the economy once we can reopen.

Wouldn't that require that the rest of the world do the same?

Or are you counting on the US government to keep the virus out of the US once we isolate it out of existence domestically? I submit that's not a viable plan, as recent history clearly demonstrates.

How can we re-open America, while preventing re-infection?

It's only non-viable if you fail to keep restrictions on international travel up. Trump supporters are happy to note that was the first action of the Feds in this fiasco, restricting travel with the source of the infection..

If we keep all international travel restrictions in place we can keep from being reinfected until the plague is over in the rest of the world.

It's no different than locking down a city or state. Do you really not understand that?

people, drugs and what not that shouldn't be crossing borders does it all
the time, what makes this different?

without a cure or vaccine it only takes one to restart this whole nightmare

 

[mpm]

On Sunday, March 22, 2020 at 5:30:45 PM UTC-4, Rick C wrote:

On Sunday, March 22, 2020 at 9:13:17 AM UTC-4, mpm wrote:
On Saturday, March 21, 2020 at 11:39:25 PM UTC-4, Rick C wrote:
Lock down the country, shut the factories and any non-essential business and the impact to everyone is less, including the economy once we can reopen.

Wouldn't that require that the rest of the world do the same?

Or are you counting on the US government to keep the virus out of the US once we isolate it out of existence domestically? I submit that's not a viable plan, as recent history clearly demonstrates.

How can we re-open America, while preventing re-infection?

It's only non-viable if you fail to keep restrictions on international travel up. Trump supporters are happy to note that was the first action of the Feds in this fiasco, restricting travel with the source of the infection.

If we keep all international travel restrictions in place we can keep from being reinfected until the plague is over in the rest of the world.

It's no different than locking down a city or state. Do you really not understand that?

Here's what I understand:
You appear to be much more willing to trust that government can take care of this situation than I am. Logically, your concept is air-tight. Ride out (suffocate) the coronavirus by locking down society, and then don't let any virus back in.

Well, I just don't think that back end of that is realistic.
At best, it would be a roller coaster.

And, admittedly, that might be better than the status-quo (still, TBD).
But in the end, I still don't think the government can do it.
Or, if you really want to argue it: can't do it without the consent and cooperation of the governed, which I submit has a limited shelf-life.

Frankly, I wonder if we'll even get two weeks' worth of meaningful compliance. Maybe.

 

[Rick C]

On Sunday, March 22, 2020 at 6:30:49 PM UTC-4, mpm wrote:

On Sunday, March 22, 2020 at 5:30:45 PM UTC-4, Rick C wrote:
On Sunday, March 22, 2020 at 9:13:17 AM UTC-4, mpm wrote:
On Saturday, March 21, 2020 at 11:39:25 PM UTC-4, Rick C wrote:
Lock down the country, shut the factories and any non-essential business and the impact to everyone is less, including the economy once we can reopen.

Wouldn't that require that the rest of the world do the same?

Or are you counting on the US government to keep the virus out of the US once we isolate it out of existence domestically? I submit that's not a viable plan, as recent history clearly demonstrates.

How can we re-open America, while preventing re-infection?

It's only non-viable if you fail to keep restrictions on international travel up. Trump supporters are happy to note that was the first action of the Feds in this fiasco, restricting travel with the source of the infection.

If we keep all international travel restrictions in place we can keep from being reinfected until the plague is over in the rest of the world.

It's no different than locking down a city or state. Do you really not understand that?

Here's what I understand:
You appear to be much more willing to trust that government can take care of this situation than I am. Logically, your concept is air-tight. Ride out (suffocate) the coronavirus by locking down society, and then don't let any virus back in.

Well, I just don't think that back end of that is realistic.
At best, it would be a roller coaster.

And, admittedly, that might be better than the status-quo (still, TBD).
But in the end, I still don't think the government can do it.
Or, if you really want to argue it: can't do it without the consent and cooperation of the governed, which I submit has a limited shelf-life.

Frankly, I wonder if we'll even get two weeks' worth of meaningful compliance. Maybe.

Ok, what's the other option?

--

Rick C.

---+ Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
---+ Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

 

Cursitor Doom <curd@notformail.com> wrote in
news:le9f7fp2qqp2l0r6aqqbh5pp0krg1gk3af@4ax.com:

On Sat, 21 Mar 2020 08:04:01 -0700,
jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:

So, to return to my favorite theme, there are important fields of
expertise where the majority of experts are usually wrong.
Electronic design is not one of them.

Why do you persistently keep introducing electronics in this
politics discussion newsgroup of ours?

Very strange song... Very electric!

Bum bum bum bum bum bum... bum bum, bum bum...

Ooh, my little pretty one, my pretty one
When you gonna give me some time, Corona
Ooh, you make my FEVER run, my FEVER run
Got it coming off o' the line, Carona!

Never gonna stop, give it up, such a dirty virus
I always get it up, for the touch of the younger kind
My, my, my, aye-aye, whoa!
M-m-m-my Carona!

Come a little closer, huh, a-will ya, huh?
Close enough to splash in my eyes, Carona!
Keeping it a mystery, it gets to me
Running down the length of my lung, Carona!

Never gonna stop, give it up, such a dirty virus
I always get it up, for the touch of the younger kind
My, my, my, aye-aye, whoa!
M-m-m-my Carona
M-m-m-my Carona
When you gonna give to me, a gift to me
Is it just a matter of time, Carona?
Is it d-d-destiny, d-destiny
Or is it just a shame...

 

[Rick C]

On Sunday, March 22, 2020 at 9:09:50 PM UTC-4, Lasse Langwadt Christensen wrote:

søndag den 22. marts 2020 kl. 23.30.49 UTC+1 skrev mpm:

Frankly, I wonder if we'll even get two weeks' worth of meaningful compliance. Maybe.

https://youtu.be/bFrlktGri4s

I think that guy is broadcasting from somewhere near Wuhan, no?

Two minutes in and he is saying the same thing for the fourth time. I get what he is saying, but what does it mean to push the pause button on everyone? At some point the wealth is just not being created and so someone has to take the blow. We can't pretend the money is there and expect everyone to forgo income for that period. The US government seems to think they can write blank checks... that's great until we take the hit on the overall budget. Who's going to pay the extra taxes... oh, wait, the first pause button is the lower taxes collected because of the income that wasn't earned. So talking about a pause button for "everyone" isn't an explanation or solution.

I don't have a solution to the financials. It's bitch. But this is no different from being tossed in the deep end of the lake. You will do what you have to for survival and getting out of the lake and then worry about your wallet being ruined and your clothes wet. We have time to sort out the financials. Meanwhile people don't get a choice. If their state doesn't allow evictions, the landlord can't cheat. So where's the short term problem?

mpm is all about finding problems in life. So far the only solution he has suggested for anything is a gun, preferably in his hands. Ok, he has guns, they solve a few problems we don't yet have, but nothing relevant. What other ideas does he have?

The only issue I'm worried about right now is the infection numbers. So compliance with the lock downs we haven't put in place is something we need to focus on.

--

Rick C.

--+- Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
--+- Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

 

[Lasse Langwadt Christense]

søndag den 22. marts 2020 kl. 23.30.49 UTC+1 skrev mpm:

On Sunday, March 22, 2020 at 5:30:45 PM UTC-4, Rick C wrote:
On Sunday, March 22, 2020 at 9:13:17 AM UTC-4, mpm wrote:
On Saturday, March 21, 2020 at 11:39:25 PM UTC-4, Rick C wrote:
Lock down the country, shut the factories and any non-essential business and the impact to everyone is less, including the economy once we can reopen.

Wouldn't that require that the rest of the world do the same?

Or are you counting on the US government to keep the virus out of the US once we isolate it out of existence domestically? I submit that's not a viable plan, as recent history clearly demonstrates.

How can we re-open America, while preventing re-infection?

It's only non-viable if you fail to keep restrictions on international travel up. Trump supporters are happy to note that was the first action of the Feds in this fiasco, restricting travel with the source of the infection.

If we keep all international travel restrictions in place we can keep from being reinfected until the plague is over in the rest of the world.

It's no different than locking down a city or state. Do you really not understand that?

Here's what I understand:
You appear to be much more willing to trust that government can take care of this situation than I am. Logically, your concept is air-tight. Ride out (suffocate) the coronavirus by locking down society, and then don't let any virus back in.

Well, I just don't think that back end of that is realistic.
At best, it would be a roller coaster.

And, admittedly, that might be better than the status-quo (still, TBD).
But in the end, I still don't think the government can do it.
Or, if you really want to argue it: can't do it without the consent and cooperation of the governed, which I submit has a limited shelf-life.

Frankly, I wonder if we'll even get two weeks' worth of meaningful compliance. Maybe.

https://youtu.be/bFrlktGri4s

 

[mpm]

On Sunday, March 22, 2020 at 7:33:36 PM UTC-4, Rick C wrote:

On Sunday, March 22, 2020 at 6:30:49 PM UTC-4, mpm wrote:

Frankly, I wonder if we'll even get two weeks' worth of meaningful compliance. Maybe.

Ok, what's the other option?

Can I get back to you in two weeks?

 

[Bill Sloman]

On Monday, March 23, 2020 at 4:44:51 AM UTC+11, Cursitor Doom wrote:

On Sat, 21 Mar 2020 16:36:00 -0700 (PDT), mpm <mpmillard@aol.com
wrote:

On Saturday, March 21, 2020 at 7:06:54 PM UTC-4, Rick C wrote:

The countries that have had successes in fighting this disease. Where have you been? China has not reported new cases for some days now. The number of new infections has been less than the number of recoveries for over a month. Clearly they have nearly isolated the disease.

That's a BIG MAYBE !!

The troll you're attempting to debate with is a conspicuous fool on
this group and you will get nowhere attempting to reason with it. The
only way to win is not to play - which is why this troll and a handful
of others (including Bill Sloman and Bitrex) now reside in my
killfile.

Cursitor Doom is clearly one of the groups resident trolls, and he doesn't like reading posts where he gets dumped on for it. Mpm is merely a right-wing nitwit, who thinks that Donald Trump is fine example of a US president.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

 

[mpm]

On Sunday, March 22, 2020 at 10:22:26 PM UTC-4, Bill Sloman wrote:

> Cursitor Doom is clearly one of the groups resident trolls, and he doesn't like reading posts where he gets dumped on for it. Mpm is merely a right-wing nitwit, who thinks that Donald Trump is fine example of a US president.

Meanwhile, we are all worried about whether you are going to be the next vector for "kangaroo coronavirus", not that you should even be having sex at your advanced age.

And look: Trump isn't perfect, but the alternative was Hillary.
Sometimes you have to hold your nose when you vote.
At the time, I may have voted for Lindsey Graham or Scott Walker, but they could not make it out of the primaries.

 

[mpm]

On Sunday, March 22, 2020 at 9:44:13 PM UTC-4, Rick C wrote:

mpm is all about finding problems in life. So far the only solution he has suggested for anything is a gun, preferably in his hands. Ok, he has guns, they solve a few problems we don't yet have, but nothing relevant. What other ideas does he have?

That's not really a fair characterization, and I'm not here to "fix" the coronavirus issue. Never said I was.

I've suggested that governments (at least, non-totalitarian ones), and the societies that they govern, really are ill-equipped to handle something like this on almost every level. That's hardly debatable, even if you only believe 10% of what you see on the news. That's another reason I take care of myself - I realize short of following the official guidance, there is precious little I can do to help - I am not a virologist, and don't pretend to be.

 

[Bill Sloman]

On Monday, March 23, 2020 at 2:22:24 PM UTC+11, mpm wrote:

On Sunday, March 22, 2020 at 10:22:26 PM UTC-4, Bill Sloman wrote:

Cursitor Doom is clearly one of the groups resident trolls, and he doesn't like reading posts where he gets dumped on for it. Mpm is merely a right-wing nitwit, who thinks that Donald Trump is fine example of a US president.

Meanwhile, we are all worried about whether you are going to be the next vector for "kangaroo coronavirus", not that you should even be having sex at your advanced age.

Central Sydney is a kangaroo-free environment, and trying to have sex with an animal that could disembowel you requires the sort of idiot who would vote for Trump.

If you came to Sydney I could direct you to Taronga Zoo which is in an inner suburb of Sydney. They don't pimp out their kangaroos, and I've never heard of anybody who does, but you could try offering loads of money - you'd most likely earn a lot of publicity and at a lot of ridicule, but you like Trump so the ridicule wouldn't worry you.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

And look: Trump isn't perfect, but the alternative was Hillary.
Sometimes you have to hold your nose when you vote.
At the time, I may have voted for Lindsey Graham or Scott Walker, but they could not make it out of the primaries.

 

mpm <mpmillard@aol.com> wrote in
news:ef2b237c-9824-46fa-b6a1-7da63cbf4eb0@googlegroups.com:

On Sunday, March 22, 2020 at 7:33:36 PM UTC-4, Rick C wrote:
On Sunday, March 22, 2020 at 6:30:49 PM UTC-4, mpm wrote:

Frankly, I wonder if we'll even get two weeks' worth of
meaningful compliance. Maybe.

Ok, what's the other option?


Can I get back to you in two weeks?

Priceless.

Every now and then, you do spout a good one.

 

[Lasse Langwadt Christense]

mandag den 23. marts 2020 kl. 02.44.13 UTC+1 skrev Rick C:

On Sunday, March 22, 2020 at 9:09:50 PM UTC-4, Lasse Langwadt Christensen wrote:
søndag den 22. marts 2020 kl. 23.30.49 UTC+1 skrev mpm:

Frankly, I wonder if we'll even get two weeks' worth of meaningful compliance. Maybe.

https://youtu.be/bFrlktGri4s

I think that guy is broadcasting from somewhere near Wuhan, no?

nope, it is from his store in New York

His point was that it'll be hard to get do social distancing and stores to stay closed if everyone thinks that it'll just result in debt and eviction in three months

 

[Rick C]

On Monday, March 23, 2020 at 4:16:37 AM UTC-4, DecadentLinux...@decadence.org wrote:

mpm <mpmillard@aol.com> wrote in
news:ef2b237c-9824-46fa-b6a1-7da63cbf4eb0@googlegroups.com:

On Sunday, March 22, 2020 at 7:33:36 PM UTC-4, Rick C wrote:
On Sunday, March 22, 2020 at 6:30:49 PM UTC-4, mpm wrote:

Frankly, I wonder if we'll even get two weeks' worth of
meaningful compliance. Maybe.

Ok, what's the other option?


Can I get back to you in two weeks?


Priceless.

Every now and then, you do spout a good one.

And that is what this situation is all about, being glib.

--

Rick C.

--++ Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
--++ Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

 

[David Brown]

On 22/03/2020 22:52, Lasse Langwadt Christensen wrote:

søndag den 22. marts 2020 kl. 22.30.45 UTC+1 skrev Rick C:
On Sunday, March 22, 2020 at 9:13:17 AM UTC-4, mpm wrote:
On Saturday, March 21, 2020 at 11:39:25 PM UTC-4, Rick C wrote:
Lock down the country, shut the factories and any non-essential business and the impact to everyone is less, including the economy once we can reopen.

Wouldn't that require that the rest of the world do the same?

Or are you counting on the US government to keep the virus out of the US once we isolate it out of existence domestically? I submit that's not a viable plan, as recent history clearly demonstrates.

How can we re-open America, while preventing re-infection?

It's only non-viable if you fail to keep restrictions on international travel up. Trump supporters are happy to note that was the first action of the Feds in this fiasco, restricting travel with the source of the infection.

If we keep all international travel restrictions in place we can keep from being reinfected until the plague is over in the rest of the world.

It's no different than locking down a city or state. Do you really not understand that?


people, drugs and what not that shouldn't be crossing borders does it all
the time, what makes this different?

without a cure or vaccine it only takes one to restart this whole nightmare

You need to lock down the country (this applies to /all/ counties)
entirely until the spreading factor is low enough that it /mostly/ dies
away. Then you can re-open inside the country, with limitations, and
partially re-open borders with tight controls. This will not eliminate
the virus - no lockdown will eliminate it. But that's not the aim. The
aim is to make sure you don't have uncontrollable spread that overwhelms
the heath service. It is inevitable that outbreaks will re-occur,
whether coming in from abroad or latent patches inside the country. You
need to have enough control that when this happens, the outbreak areas
are locked down again as necessary.

It is not until there is a vaccine that we will be able to get rid of
the virus.

Rick is absolutely right that strong lockdowns are needed. And you are
right that a vaccine is needed to end this. Both parts are required.

 

[Rick C]

On Monday, March 23, 2020 at 5:37:12 AM UTC-4, Lasse Langwadt Christensen wrote:

mandag den 23. marts 2020 kl. 02.44.13 UTC+1 skrev Rick C:
On Sunday, March 22, 2020 at 9:09:50 PM UTC-4, Lasse Langwadt Christensen wrote:
søndag den 22. marts 2020 kl. 23.30.49 UTC+1 skrev mpm:

Frankly, I wonder if we'll even get two weeks' worth of meaningful compliance. Maybe.

https://youtu.be/bFrlktGri4s

I think that guy is broadcasting from somewhere near Wuhan, no?

nope, it is from his store in New York

His point was that it'll be hard to get do social distancing and stores to stay closed if everyone thinks that it'll just result in debt and eviction in three months

I was being sarcastic. Stores won't have a choice. Stay closed or get thrown in jail where you will be most likely to get the disease and least likely to be treated.

The point is they had no trouble enforcing the orders in Wuhan because the government took it seriously. I hear they have called up the National Guard in NY. They are a backup army here in the US often called out to deal with natural disasters and to shoot protesting college students. They are pretty good at both.

--

Rick C.

-+-- Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
-+-- Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

 

On Mon, 23 Mar 2020 11:33:18 +0100, David Brown
<david.brown@hesbynett.no> wrote:

On 22/03/2020 22:52, Lasse Langwadt Christensen wrote:
sřndag den 22. marts 2020 kl. 22.30.45 UTC+1 skrev Rick C:
On Sunday, March 22, 2020 at 9:13:17 AM UTC-4, mpm wrote:
On Saturday, March 21, 2020 at 11:39:25 PM UTC-4, Rick C wrote:
Lock down the country, shut the factories and any non-essential business and the impact to everyone is less, including the economy once we can reopen.

Wouldn't that require that the rest of the world do the same?

Or are you counting on the US government to keep the virus out of the US once we isolate it out of existence domestically? I submit that's not a viable plan, as recent history clearly demonstrates.

How can we re-open America, while preventing re-infection?

It's only non-viable if you fail to keep restrictions on international travel up. Trump supporters are happy to note that was the first action of the Feds in this fiasco, restricting travel with the source of the infection.

If we keep all international travel restrictions in place we can keep from being reinfected until the plague is over in the rest of the world.

It's no different than locking down a city or state. Do you really not understand that?


people, drugs and what not that shouldn't be crossing borders does it all
the time, what makes this different?

without a cure or vaccine it only takes one to restart this whole nightmare


You need to lock down the country (this applies to /all/ counties)
entirely until the spreading factor is low enough that it /mostly/ dies
away.

When do you expect this to happen ? June or November or even later ?

Then you can re-open inside the country, with limitations, and
partially re-open borders with tight controls. This will not eliminate
the virus - no lockdown will eliminate it. But that's not the aim. The
aim is to make sure you don't have uncontrollable spread that overwhelms
the heath service. It is inevitable that outbreaks will re-occur,
whether coming in from abroad or latent patches inside the country. You
need to have enough control that when this happens, the outbreak areas
are locked down again as necessary.

If the lockdown is in force for 3-12 months, what effects does this
have on people's mental health ? What about the national economy ?

It is not until there is a vaccine that we will be able to get rid of
the virus.

This is unfortunately the case, but it can take 1-2 years.

Rick is absolutely right that strong lockdowns are needed. And you are
right that a vaccine is needed to end this. Both parts are required.

 

[dcaster@krl.org]

On Sunday, March 22, 2020 at 2:58:17 PM UTC-4, snorg

I'm with you Dan, I'm not rich, I'm just a poor boy with money. My
wife and I earned an inflation adjusted income of $71k a year over the
last 38 years, We saved and invested in no/low load mutual funds since
the late 80s. Our net worth increased $1.2M from the beginning 2011 to
the end of 2019. That does not include gains from 1988 to 2011.
In 1988 the Nasdaq was under 400, it peaked Feb, 2020 at 9520. Yes it
has dropped and My portfolio is down, But it is nowhere near 400.
The stock market is volatile, that doesn't mean it's not safe.
Over the long term the stock market is always up. Earning interest at
the bank is not safe, you will lose money to inflation.
The stock market will return to new highs and I'll take advantage of it.
Some of the comments here remind my of my neighbor, He sold
everything after 9-11, $200k. He never got back in. It's been in cash. I
didn't have the heart to tell him, if he had invested in Vanguards Total
Stock Market Fund he would have had between $50
0,000 and $600,000.

Here's a chart of the Nasdaq, click on Max. it
is a 40 years chart,
it shows the Nasdaq has gone from 129 to 9500, A multiple of 70 times!
With the market drop, it is down to a multiple
of 52 times.

https://www.google.com/search?client=firefox-b-1-d&q=30+year+nasdaq+chart
Those gains do not include dividend payments
..
If you sell when the market is down, you have
locked in your losses
and you have no clue when to get back in.

It is amazing how many people have misguided ideas about investing.

Dan
>

 

[David Brown]

On 23/03/2020 12:18, upsidedown@downunder.com wrote:

On Mon, 23 Mar 2020 11:33:18 +0100, David Brown
david.brown@hesbynett.no> wrote:

On 22/03/2020 22:52, Lasse Langwadt Christensen wrote:
søndag den 22. marts 2020 kl. 22.30.45 UTC+1 skrev Rick C:
On Sunday, March 22, 2020 at 9:13:17 AM UTC-4, mpm wrote:
On Saturday, March 21, 2020 at 11:39:25 PM UTC-4, Rick C wrote:
Lock down the country, shut the factories and any non-essential business and the impact to everyone is less, including the economy once we can reopen.

Wouldn't that require that the rest of the world do the same?

Or are you counting on the US government to keep the virus out of the US once we isolate it out of existence domestically? I submit that's not a viable plan, as recent history clearly demonstrates.

How can we re-open America, while preventing re-infection?

It's only non-viable if you fail to keep restrictions on international travel up. Trump supporters are happy to note that was the first action of the Feds in this fiasco, restricting travel with the source of the infection.

If we keep all international travel restrictions in place we can keep from being reinfected until the plague is over in the rest of the world.

It's no different than locking down a city or state. Do you really not understand that?


people, drugs and what not that shouldn't be crossing borders does it all
the time, what makes this different?

without a cure or vaccine it only takes one to restart this whole nightmare


You need to lock down the country (this applies to /all/ counties)
entirely until the spreading factor is low enough that it /mostly/ dies
away.

When do you expect this to happen ? June or November or even later ?

I don't know. But I do know that you have to wait that long - whether
it be June, November, or in three years' time (unless a vaccine is
available first).

Then you can re-open inside the country, with limitations, and
partially re-open borders with tight controls. This will not eliminate
the virus - no lockdown will eliminate it. But that's not the aim. The
aim is to make sure you don't have uncontrollable spread that overwhelms
the heath service. It is inevitable that outbreaks will re-occur,
whether coming in from abroad or latent patches inside the country. You
need to have enough control that when this happens, the outbreak areas
are locked down again as necessary.

If the lockdown is in force for 3-12 months, what effects does this
have on people's mental health ? What about the national economy ?

Do you prefer people to be poor and annoyed by their isolation, or do
you prefer them to be dead?

I expect that it will be possible to have a gradual reduction of
lockdown to get a better balance over time. But that can't happen in a
country until that country has had a /solid/ lockdown for long enough to
get control of this thing. Then there can be a careful release of
restrictions - it's okay to have /some/ people catch the virus as long
as the numbers can be kept small. (Good therapeutic drugs, once they
are actually tested properly, will let the health system handle higher
numbers of sick people.)

It is not until there is a vaccine that we will be able to get rid of
the virus.

This is unfortunately the case, but it can take 1-2 years.

Unfortunately, yes - that's a realistic minimal time-frame.

Rick is absolutely right that strong lockdowns are needed. And you are
right that a vaccine is needed to end this. Both parts are required.