OT: Stockmarket falls >33% in just a couple of weeks!

On Sunday, March 22, 2020 at 9:42:24 AM UTC+11, Tom Gardner wrote:
On 21/03/20 16:54, Rick C wrote:
On Saturday, March 21, 2020 at 12:24:28 PM UTC-4, Tom Gardner wrote:
On 21/03/20 16:14, Rick C wrote:
People are talking about sacrificing the relatively small percentage of
human deaths to this disease by letting it run rampant to try to save the
economy. I vote to temporarily sacrifice the economy to save workers who
will be needed when we are ready to put them back to work.

It looks like you may not have understood the Imperial College predictions.
There's a decent summary and a link to the report at
https://www.technologyreview.com/s/615370/coronavirus-pandemic-social-distancing-18-months/


Now those are fallible predictions and they can't consider
all possibilities, but they are the best we've got.

If you have something better, please convince others then tell us.

That article starts with a fundamentally flawed assertion, "That means the
pandemic needs to last, at a low level, until either enough people have had
Covid-19 to leave most immune (assuming immunity lasts for years, which we
don’t know) or there’s a vaccine."

Given the choice between believing your statements or the
statements in the IC report, I'll believe the IC report.

I'll change that if you provide evidence to support your hopes.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/china/

Tiawan, Singapore and Hong Kong got the message, and seem to have done as well.

The other option is that the disease is eradicated by isolation. I'm not
talking about social distancing. I'm talking about months long lock down
until there is no disease in a country then extended travel restrictions
until the rest of the world is safe. This is not impossible, but it will
take a long time.

And your evidence that might occur is what, exactly?

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/china/

Tiawan, Singapore and Hong Kong got the message, and seem to have done as well

That's the thing that is hard to imagine. In the US we most likely will need to be in lock down into the summer.

And that's the evidence that you don't understand the IC report.

Predicting the time course of the infection is guesswork. The crucial variable is the way people behave, and predicting how seriously a population as whole will take take social distancing isn't something that computer models are likely to do well.

Italy didn't do it near as well as China.

> > This disease doesn't kill enough people so as to make people think they need
to avoid it at all costs. In the younger age groups it's only 1 in 10 or less. They don't realize that number goes up quickly when the hospitals are overloaded. Many think "social distancing" will do the job. Is there really
something magical about a 6 foot distance when the disease is transmitted on door handles??? So we will take half measures and let the disease run through the population. Then in maybe a year it will be safe for the rest of
us to come out.
Nope, according to people that have far more expertise in the
subject than you (or I).

I'm hoping we will lock down the country and have the sort of success some of the Asian countries have had. Who do you think will be rebuilding the economies first, those who eliminate the disease or those who let it run through the population decimating the medical system?

It wouldn't decimate the medical system. It would decimate
the population.

That could be seen to bring many "advantages"; as I noted earlier...

I imagine people around Cummings and his ilk are thinking
unthinkable thoughts like
- short term:
- reduced bed blocking
- more inheritance tax income
- long term:
- reduced pension payments
- reduced care payments
- reduced pressure on the NHS
- more houses becoming available, reducing the pressure to
build more
- more stamp tax income as people move
- a hard brexit ain't our fault
- lots of opportunities to bury bad news
- city/government isn't to blame for the (overdue)
stock market "correction"
Me a cynic? Shurely shome mishtake.

Not so much cynical as unrealistic. Politicians mostly think in terms of the next head-line.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney
 
You do realize that Enron had every right to enforce the provision of their matching ESOP shares, particularly the requirement to hold matching contributions until the employee turns 50 years old.

Any reason you left out that (frankly CRITICAL) piece of information, or did you just not know about it?

Now, do I think the practice is fair? No. Not really.
But a lot of companies engage in that sort of thing. Maybe they're worried about retention.

Enron's much larger problem (among MANY) is that it offered and sold stock to employees (including the ESOP plan) without issuing a prospectus. That alone is enough safe harbor for litigants to win, (but win what if the company is toast?).
 
On Saturday, March 21, 2020 at 11:04:07 AM UTC-4, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Sat, 21 Mar 2020 01:11:32 +0000, Cursitor Doom
curd@notformail.com> wrote:

Some historic records being smashed here, along with hard-working
people's retirement dreams....

https://tinyurl.com/wjbyxq5

Too many sharks in this ocean for the small fish to survive. Stock
markets are rigged. If you have no insider info like the big boys have
access to, you get skinned alive.
Glad I sold out of this fake shit-show decades ago. :-D

The various national banks, run by economists, have pushed interest
rates down to zero to pump the stock market, and become addicted to
continuous "stimulus." That's deliberate design for crashes.

Funny, your hero Trump has been trying to bully the fed to lower interest
rates for a long time. They had been slowly raising them, he said it
was terrible. And the fed hasn;t kept rates low to boost the stock
market, they have kept them low because inflation remains low and the
economy is only growing 2.7%.



By accident, I got mostly into cash a few months ago, and didn't get
around to deciding where to re-invest.

Yes, unless the way overpriced market recovers, a lot of cities and
pension funds and 401Ks will be hit hard. That's the sorts of things
that politicians and their economist friends do for us.

Absurd. The market is down because the economy is shutting down around
the world because of the coronavirus. The denial runs deep in this one...




So, to return to my favorite theme, there are important fields of
expertise where the majority of experts are usually wrong. Electronic
design is not one of them.



--

John Larkin Highland Technology, Inc

The cork popped merrily, and Lord Peter rose to his feet.
"Bunter", he said, "I give you a toast. The triumph of Instinct over Reason"
 
On Sunday, March 22, 2020 at 10:36:05 AM UTC+11, mpm wrote:
On Saturday, March 21, 2020 at 7:06:54 PM UTC-4, Rick C wrote:

The countries that have had successes in fighting this disease. Where have you been? China has not reported new cases for some days now. The number of new infections has been less than the number of recoveries for over a month. Clearly they have nearly isolated the disease.

That's a BIG MAYBE !!
And I sincerely hope it is true, but only time will tell.
I wouldn't be quick to jump to any conclusion absent such time.

They've don a whole lot better than Italy, Iran and the US. It might be wise to jump to conclusion that they are doing someting right.

I've lost track of who said what... :)

To the point about "isolating Covid-19 out of existence"...
Let's assume that is "do-able" and that it would actually succeed.
Are there any unintended consequences to trying that?

Until we get a vaccine, the approach does require everybody to keep an eye for new eruptions of the virus, and to be willing to dump a signifcant area into lock-down for at least 14 days after the last new infection has been detected.

That's going to be horribly disruptive every time it happens.

I'm not here to list potentialities, only to mention that actions have outcomes. Maybe we lock people in their homes for 90 days and millions die from obesity (i.e, 90 days of couch-potato-ing) :)

Which I doubt of course, but divining the unintended consequences is at least worth some consideration.

Current thinking does seem to be a bit weak on divining the obviously predictable consequences. Once those have been sewn up, it may be time to start thinking about the less easily predictable effects, as on the economy or the national waistline.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney
 
On Sat, 21 Mar 2020 19:47:49 -0700 (PDT), Whoey Louie
<trader4@optonline.net> wrote:

On Saturday, March 21, 2020 at 11:04:07 AM UTC-4, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Sat, 21 Mar 2020 01:11:32 +0000, Cursitor Doom
curd@notformail.com> wrote:

Some historic records being smashed here, along with hard-working
people's retirement dreams....

https://tinyurl.com/wjbyxq5

Too many sharks in this ocean for the small fish to survive. Stock
markets are rigged. If you have no insider info like the big boys have
access to, you get skinned alive.
Glad I sold out of this fake shit-show decades ago. :-D

The various national banks, run by economists, have pushed interest
rates down to zero to pump the stock market, and become addicted to
continuous "stimulus." That's deliberate design for crashes.

Funny, your hero Trump has been trying to bully the fed to lower interest
rates for a long time.

I have no heroes, and I think he is wrong on this one. But it helps
his re-election prospects if we minimize the crash. Long-term thinking
is discouraged in politics.


They had been slowly raising them, he said it
was terrible. And the fed hasn;t kept rates low to boost the stock
market, they have kept them low because inflation remains low and the
economy is only growing 2.7%.

Economists enjoy turning big knobs in a chaotic system that nobody
understands.

Low interest rates allow governments to borrow without limits. At zero
interest rate, you can borrow all you want forever.

By accident, I got mostly into cash a few months ago, and didn't get
around to deciding where to re-invest.

Yes, unless the way overpriced market recovers, a lot of cities and
pension funds and 401Ks will be hit hard. That's the sorts of things
that politicians and their economist friends do for us.


Absurd. The market is down because the economy is shutting down around
the world because of the coronavirus. The denial runs deep in this one...

We were overdue for a crash. Something would have triggered it sooner
or later. The stock market is a relaxation oscillator.


--

John Larkin Highland Technology, Inc

The cork popped merrily, and Lord Peter rose to his feet.
"Bunter", he said, "I give you a toast. The triumph of Instinct over Reason"
 
On Saturday, March 21, 2020 at 10:47:27 PM UTC-4, mpm wrote:
> You do realize that Enron had every right to enforce the provision of their matching ESOP shares, particularly the requirement to hold matching contributions until the employee turns 50 years old.

From your earlier post...

> I don't need to "learn" any of this because I lived it

Ok, now that you have learned something about it rather than just ranting about how you are an expert and already know so much about the issue... why not address my original point which was that the people who couldn't sell their shares were complaining about losing all the money the stock wasn't worth because the value of the company was highly inflated by the illegal actions of the company.

Or you can continue to rant about whatever else you wish to go on about that is not at all related to the posts you reply to.

--

Rick C.

+-- Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
+-- Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209
 
On Saturday, March 21, 2020 at 11:19:52 PM UTC-4, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Sat, 21 Mar 2020 19:47:49 -0700 (PDT), Whoey Louie
trader4@optonline.net> wrote:

On Saturday, March 21, 2020 at 11:04:07 AM UTC-4, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:

The various national banks, run by economists, have pushed interest
rates down to zero to pump the stock market, and become addicted to
continuous "stimulus." That's deliberate design for crashes.

Funny, your hero Trump has been trying to bully the fed to lower interest
rates for a long time.

I have no heroes, and I think he is wrong on this one. But it helps
his re-election prospects if we minimize the crash. Long-term thinking
is discouraged in politics.

There is no minimizing the stock market crash... there is no minimizing the impact to the economy... other than minimizing the impact on the people of this country.

Do little, allow the disease to ravage the country and the market crashes when people stay home from the panic.

Lock down the country, shut the factories and any non-essential business and the impact to everyone is less, including the economy once we can reopen.


They had been slowly raising them, he said it
was terrible. And the fed hasn;t kept rates low to boost the stock
market, they have kept them low because inflation remains low and the
economy is only growing 2.7%.

Economists enjoy turning big knobs in a chaotic system that nobody
understands.

Certainly not you, but the impact of interest rates on the economy is not hard to understand. Even high school children can get it.


Low interest rates allow governments to borrow without limits. At zero
interest rate, you can borrow all you want forever.

Not really because that is an overnight rate, so the interest rate can go up any day. That's a long way to forever.


By accident, I got mostly into cash a few months ago, and didn't get
around to deciding where to re-invest.

Yes, unless the way overpriced market recovers, a lot of cities and
pension funds and 401Ks will be hit hard. That's the sorts of things
that politicians and their economist friends do for us.


Absurd. The market is down because the economy is shutting down around
the world because of the coronavirus. The denial runs deep in this one....

We were overdue for a crash. Something would have triggered it sooner
or later. The stock market is a relaxation oscillator.

The market often has corrections. We may have been overdue for a correction (something Trump felt would never happen in his push for 30,000, a nice round number for the election), but 33% loss in a couple of weeks... no. Records were set in the markets drops this past week. Your attempt to palm it off as a correction is absurd and makes you appear feeble minded. You are getting rather old. That would explain a lot about your thinking or lack of it.

--

Rick C.

+-+ Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
+-+ Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209
 
On Saturday, March 21, 2020 at 11:19:52 PM UTC-4, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Sat, 21 Mar 2020 19:47:49 -0700 (PDT), Whoey Louie
trader4@optonline.net> wrote:

On Saturday, March 21, 2020 at 11:04:07 AM UTC-4, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Sat, 21 Mar 2020 01:11:32 +0000, Cursitor Doom
curd@notformail.com> wrote:

Some historic records being smashed here, along with hard-working
people's retirement dreams....

https://tinyurl.com/wjbyxq5

Too many sharks in this ocean for the small fish to survive. Stock
markets are rigged. If you have no insider info like the big boys have
access to, you get skinned alive.
Glad I sold out of this fake shit-show decades ago. :-D

The various national banks, run by economists, have pushed interest
rates down to zero to pump the stock market, and become addicted to
continuous "stimulus." That's deliberate design for crashes.

Funny, your hero Trump has been trying to bully the fed to lower interest
rates for a long time.

I have no heroes, and I think he is wrong on this one. But it helps
his re-election prospects if we minimize the crash. Long-term thinking
is discouraged in politics.


They had been slowly raising them, he said it
was terrible. And the fed hasn;t kept rates low to boost the stock
market, they have kept them low because inflation remains low and the
economy is only growing 2.7%.

Economists enjoy turning big knobs in a chaotic system that nobody
understands.

Low interest rates allow governments to borrow without limits. At zero
interest rate, you can borrow all you want forever.





By accident, I got mostly into cash a few months ago, and didn't get
around to deciding where to re-invest.

Yes, unless the way overpriced market recovers, a lot of cities and
pension funds and 401Ks will be hit hard. That's the sorts of things
that politicians and their economist friends do for us.


Absurd. The market is down because the economy is shutting down around
the world because of the coronavirus. The denial runs deep in this one...

We were overdue for a crash. Something would have triggered it sooner
or later. The stock market is a relaxation oscillator.

Businesses have inherent value.

If a company reliably earns a dollar per share a year for the
foreseeable future, that's worth about ten or fifteen bucks a share
to own a piece of (about a 6-10% annual return). If earnings are
growing over time, that's worth more. If the company has tangible
assets, like cash, that adds, too.

The price varies according to the risk -- if the risk is higher,
the overall value drops, according to the risk estimate.

And if the federal government artificially depresses interest rates
for a decade, then people crowd into stocks and push the prices up.
Artificially, higher than their inherent value.

Chaotic, short-term. But it all levels out marvelously well in the
long-term.

"In the short term the stock market is a voting machine. In the long
term it's a weighing machine." --Benjamin Graham (paraphrased)

Cheers,
James
 
On Saturday, March 21, 2020 at 11:26:29 PM UTC-4, Rick C wrote:
Litigants complain about all kinds of stuff, true or not, when they want to win in court. That's all.

It's very much like an ugly divorce where the wife ends up getting a restraining order against her husband. Not because one is needed, but because there is the perception that it benefits her standing in the proceedings.

Anyway, your original point has morphed, so let's just drop it.
Enron was clearly cooking the books, and that alone is justification for a lawsuit by investors.
 
On Saturday, March 21, 2020 at 11:39:25 PM UTC-4, Rick C wrote:
> Lock down the country, shut the factories and any non-essential business and the impact to everyone is less, including the economy once we can reopen.

Wouldn't that require that the rest of the world do the same?

Or are you counting on the US government to keep the virus out of the US once we isolate it out of existence domestically? I submit that's not a viable plan, as recent history clearly demonstrates.

How can we re-open America, while preventing re-infection?
 
On Monday, March 23, 2020 at 12:13:17 AM UTC+11, mpm wrote:
On Saturday, March 21, 2020 at 11:39:25 PM UTC-4, Rick C wrote:
Lock down the country, shut the factories and any non-essential business and the impact to everyone is less, including the economy once we can reopen.

Wouldn't that require that the rest of the world do the same?

Or are you counting on the US government to keep the virus out of the US once we isolate it out of existence domestically? I submit that's not a viable plan, as recent history clearly demonstrates.

How can we re-open America, while preventing re-infection?

The same way every body else does. Let the foreigners come in and keep them in quarantine for 14 days. It is a scheme that has worked for centuries (when necessary), and seems to be working for China at the moment.

Why not think about what's actually going on, rather than spouting half-baked anxieties?

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney
 
On Sat, 21 Mar 2020 16:36:00 -0700 (PDT), mpm <mpmillard@aol.com>
wrote:

On Saturday, March 21, 2020 at 7:06:54 PM UTC-4, Rick C wrote:

The countries that have had successes in fighting this disease. Where have you been? China has not reported new cases for some days now. The number of new infections has been less than the number of recoveries for over a month. Clearly they have nearly isolated the disease.

That's a BIG MAYBE !!

The troll you're attempting to debate with is a conspicuous fool on
this group and you will get nowhere attempting to reason with it. The
only way to win is not to play - which is why this troll and a handful
of others (including Bill Sloman and Bitrex) now reside in my
killfile.
 
On Sun, 22 Mar 2020 06:13:12 -0700 (PDT), mpm <mpmillard@aol.com>
wrote:

On Saturday, March 21, 2020 at 11:39:25 PM UTC-4, Rick C wrote:
Lock down the country, shut the factories and any non-essential business and the impact to everyone is less, including the economy once we can reopen.

Wouldn't that require that the rest of the world do the same?

Or are you counting on the US government to keep the virus out of the US once we isolate it out of existence domestically? I submit that's not a viable plan, as recent history clearly demonstrates.

How can we re-open America, while preventing re-infection?

Probably we can't. Barring a vaccine, we will have to let this burn
itself out, as seasonal flus do. The social distancing and similar
measures will reduce the peak and probably save some lives, and reduce
loading on hospitals and such. Treatments would reduce the death rate.

There are too many sources of re-infection now, and eventually we have
to go back to work.



--

John Larkin Highland Technology, Inc

The cork popped merrily, and Lord Peter rose to his feet.
"Bunter", he said, "I give you a toast. The triumph of Instinct over Reason"
 
On Sat, 21 Mar 2020 09:10:06 -0700, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com
wrote:

We could leave the country in permanent lockdown and send everyone a
check for $1000 every week. We'd have income equality.

"Universal Basic Income" as they call it (aka "helicopter money") is
the last weapon in the central bank arsenal. But it can only buy a
little time and the consequences of embarking on such a course are
terminal; there's no way back if ever they start that. I'd give it 2
years tops after such a desperate move before things get *real* ugly.
 
On Sat, 21 Mar 2020 08:04:01 -0700, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com
wrote:

So, to return to my favorite theme, there are important fields of
expertise where the majority of experts are usually wrong. Electronic
design is not one of them.

Why do you persistently keep introducing electronics in this politics
discussion newsgroup of ours?
 
On Sat, 21 Mar 2020 20:19:46 -0700, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com
wrote:

Economists enjoy turning big knobs in a chaotic system that nobody
understands.

Yes, not even them, clearly.

Low interest rates allow governments to borrow without limits. At zero
interest rate, you can borrow all you want forever.

Only if you're borrowing from yourself. We live in a world of
mountainous sovereign debt. It was already mountainous and now it's
even more so. Sooner or later, when the Fed and the Bank of England,
Japan, Europe and so on need to raise money internationally, who is
going to be stupid enough to buy their bonds? We are a whisker away
from negative interests now and the global bond markets will not
tolerate this profligate imprudence indefinitely. Sooner or later,
yields will start to take off and it will become apparent that default
is inevitable. Then we'll quickly see how worthless stocks can, in the
blink of an eye, become.
 
On 3/21/2020 8:32 AM, dcaster@krl.org wrote:
On Saturday, March 21, 2020 at 6:14:25 AM UTC-4, Martin James Smith wrote:
On Fri, 20 Mar 2020 19:31:48 -0700 (PDT), "dcaster@krl.org"
dcaster@krl.org> wrote:

small fish can do well in the stock market. The stock market is not rigged and a little guy like me can do just as well as the big boys. I am glad I bought and held stocks.

You're deluded, Dan.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lVgSF8CzSy4

And you're "glad" you lost a third of your stock value in the last
fortnight?? LOL!

I am not deluded. I started investing in stocks about the time I graduated from college. At that time brokerage fees were significant. And there were no low expense index mutual funds. And I made some bad investments as in buying Washington Mutual Bank stock. ( Lost all of that money ). And stupid investments as in buying Nuculear Corp of America. That stock got so low that it was delisted on the stock exchanrge and the CEO quit. But I bought some winners too. John Fluke and Texas instruments .

And I am glad that the stock market went down. I had about $100,000 in cash and have been buying more stocks. And I have not lost a third of my stock value. You don't lose until you sell. And most of my stocks are still way above what I paid for them.

Dan

I'm with you Dan, I'm not rich, I'm just a poor boy with money. My
wife and I earned an inflation adjusted income of $71k a year over the
last 38 years, We saved and invested in no/low load mutual funds since
the late 80s. Our net worth increased $1.2M from the beginning 2011 to
the end of 2019. That does not include gains from 1988 to 2011.
In 1988 the Nasdaq was under 400, it peaked Feb, 2020 at 9520. Yes it
has dropped and My portfolio is down, But it is nowhere near 400.
The stock market is volatile, that doesn't mean it's not safe.
Over the long term the stock market is always up. Earning interest at
the bank is not safe, you will lose money to inflation.
The stock market will return to new highs and I'll take advantage of it.
Some of the comments here remind my of my neighbor, He sold
everything after 9-11, $200k. He never got back in. It's been in cash. I
didn't have the heart to tell him, if he had invested in Vanguards Total
Stock Market Fund he would have had between $500,000 and $600,000.

Here's a chart of the Nasdaq, click on Max. it is a 40 years chart,
it shows the Nasdaq has gone from 129 to 9500, A multiple of 70 times!
With the market drop, it is down to a multiple of 52 times.

> https://www.google.com/search?client=firefox-b-1-d&q=30+year+nasdaq+chart
Those gains do not include dividend payments.
If you sell when the market is down, you have locked in your losses
and you have no clue when to get back in.
 
On Sun, 22 Mar 2020 17:53:15 +0000, Cursitor Doom
<curd@notformail.com> wrote:

On Sat, 21 Mar 2020 08:04:01 -0700, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com
wrote:

So, to return to my favorite theme, there are important fields of
expertise where the majority of experts are usually wrong. Electronic
design is not one of them.

Why do you persistently keep introducing electronics in this politics
discussion newsgroup of ours?

Oh. Sorree.



--

John Larkin Highland Technology, Inc

The cork popped merrily, and Lord Peter rose to his feet.
"Bunter", he said, "I give you a toast. The triumph of Instinct over Reason"
 
On Sunday, March 22, 2020 at 9:10:27 AM UTC-4, mpm wrote:
On Saturday, March 21, 2020 at 11:26:29 PM UTC-4, Rick C wrote:
Litigants complain about all kinds of stuff, true or not, when they want to win in court. That's all.

It's very much like an ugly divorce where the wife ends up getting a restraining order against her husband. Not because one is needed, but because there is the perception that it benefits her standing in the proceedings.

Anyway, your original point has morphed, so let's just drop it.

No, the point was being ignored by you, so let's drop it.

--

Rick C.

++- Get 2,000 miles of free Supercharging
++- Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209
 
On Sunday, March 22, 2020 at 9:13:17 AM UTC-4, mpm wrote:
On Saturday, March 21, 2020 at 11:39:25 PM UTC-4, Rick C wrote:
Lock down the country, shut the factories and any non-essential business and the impact to everyone is less, including the economy once we can reopen.

Wouldn't that require that the rest of the world do the same?

Or are you counting on the US government to keep the virus out of the US once we isolate it out of existence domestically? I submit that's not a viable plan, as recent history clearly demonstrates.

How can we re-open America, while preventing re-infection?

It's only non-viable if you fail to keep restrictions on international travel up. Trump supporters are happy to note that was the first action of the Feds in this fiasco, restricting travel with the source of the infection.

If we keep all international travel restrictions in place we can keep from being reinfected until the plague is over in the rest of the world.

It's no different than locking down a city or state. Do you really not understand that?

--

Rick C.

+++ Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
+++ Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209
 

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