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Bill Sloman
Guest
On Sunday, March 22, 2020 at 9:42:24 AM UTC+11, Tom Gardner wrote:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/china/
Tiawan, Singapore and Hong Kong got the message, and seem to have done as well.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/china/
Tiawan, Singapore and Hong Kong got the message, and seem to have done as well
Predicting the time course of the infection is guesswork. The crucial variable is the way people behave, and predicting how seriously a population as whole will take take social distancing isn't something that computer models are likely to do well.
Italy didn't do it near as well as China.
> > This disease doesn't kill enough people so as to make people think they need
to avoid it at all costs. In the younger age groups it's only 1 in 10 or less. They don't realize that number goes up quickly when the hospitals are overloaded. Many think "social distancing" will do the job. Is there really
something magical about a 6 foot distance when the disease is transmitted on door handles??? So we will take half measures and let the disease run through the population. Then in maybe a year it will be safe for the rest of
us to come out.
Not so much cynical as unrealistic. Politicians mostly think in terms of the next head-line.
--
Bill Sloman, Sydney
On 21/03/20 16:54, Rick C wrote:
On Saturday, March 21, 2020 at 12:24:28 PM UTC-4, Tom Gardner wrote:
On 21/03/20 16:14, Rick C wrote:
People are talking about sacrificing the relatively small percentage of
human deaths to this disease by letting it run rampant to try to save the
economy. I vote to temporarily sacrifice the economy to save workers who
will be needed when we are ready to put them back to work.
It looks like you may not have understood the Imperial College predictions.
There's a decent summary and a link to the report at
https://www.technologyreview.com/s/615370/coronavirus-pandemic-social-distancing-18-months/
Now those are fallible predictions and they can't consider
all possibilities, but they are the best we've got.
If you have something better, please convince others then tell us.
That article starts with a fundamentally flawed assertion, "That means the
pandemic needs to last, at a low level, until either enough people have had
Covid-19 to leave most immune (assuming immunity lasts for years, which we
donât know) or thereâs a vaccine."
Given the choice between believing your statements or the
statements in the IC report, I'll believe the IC report.
I'll change that if you provide evidence to support your hopes.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/china/
Tiawan, Singapore and Hong Kong got the message, and seem to have done as well.
The other option is that the disease is eradicated by isolation. I'm not
talking about social distancing. I'm talking about months long lock down
until there is no disease in a country then extended travel restrictions
until the rest of the world is safe. This is not impossible, but it will
take a long time.
And your evidence that might occur is what, exactly?
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/china/
Tiawan, Singapore and Hong Kong got the message, and seem to have done as well
That's the thing that is hard to imagine. In the US we most likely will need to be in lock down into the summer.
And that's the evidence that you don't understand the IC report.
Predicting the time course of the infection is guesswork. The crucial variable is the way people behave, and predicting how seriously a population as whole will take take social distancing isn't something that computer models are likely to do well.
Italy didn't do it near as well as China.
> > This disease doesn't kill enough people so as to make people think they need
to avoid it at all costs. In the younger age groups it's only 1 in 10 or less. They don't realize that number goes up quickly when the hospitals are overloaded. Many think "social distancing" will do the job. Is there really
something magical about a 6 foot distance when the disease is transmitted on door handles??? So we will take half measures and let the disease run through the population. Then in maybe a year it will be safe for the rest of
us to come out.
Nope, according to people that have far more expertise in the
subject than you (or I).
I'm hoping we will lock down the country and have the sort of success some of the Asian countries have had. Who do you think will be rebuilding the economies first, those who eliminate the disease or those who let it run through the population decimating the medical system?
It wouldn't decimate the medical system. It would decimate
the population.
That could be seen to bring many "advantages"; as I noted earlier...
I imagine people around Cummings and his ilk are thinking
unthinkable thoughts like
- short term:
- reduced bed blocking
- more inheritance tax income
- long term:
- reduced pension payments
- reduced care payments
- reduced pressure on the NHS
- more houses becoming available, reducing the pressure to
build more
- more stamp tax income as people move
- a hard brexit ain't our fault
- lots of opportunities to bury bad news
- city/government isn't to blame for the (overdue)
stock market "correction"
Me a cynic? Shurely shome mishtake.
Not so much cynical as unrealistic. Politicians mostly think in terms of the next head-line.
--
Bill Sloman, Sydney