OT: CEO responses to Covid-19

[Bill Sloman]

On Sunday, March 15, 2020 at 9:54:14 AM UTC+11, edward...@gmail.com wrote:

For an idea of how quickly case numbers can explode, look
to Italy. One week after it hit 320 cases, the country
reported 2,036; a week later, nearly 10,000; next week
that number will likely rise to 50,000 or more. There’s
nothing I have seen that tells me the exact same thing
isn’t coming for us in the UK. We only have around 4,000
intensive care unit (ICU) beds in England, 80% of which
are already full. If we follow the same trajectory as
Italy, with 10% of coronavirus patients needing ICU treatment,
we will need 200 beds next week, 1,000 the week after.
That’s already the entire ICU capacity. Every two days
after that, we will need twice the number of beds again.

That's exactly what happened in China, only worse.

What happened in China was that the rate of new infections peaked shortly after the affected provinces were put into lock-down.

> And the same in happening in Italy, even with the first warning.Unfortunately.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

There were 3,497 new cases in Italy today, which is worse than China at it's worst.

Italians don't seem to understand lock-down.

it's going to happen to you (UK) and me (US), despite the first
and second warnings.

The UK has 342 news cases and the US 252.

The US hasn't got anything like enough Covid-19 virus test kits, so their number isn't all that reliable.

We, in the US, are not really tracing virus sources, not (enough)
restricting of travels and social gatherings. We are destined
to repeat Wuhan and Italy.

The point about Wuhan is that lock-down worked there. In Italy it looks very much as if it has failed. The UK has a rather better disciplined civic culture than Italy, and it may work for them.

US health system isn't designed to deal with epidemics - I've got a lot of abuse here for saying that the health system is basically there to fight epidemics, and regular health care is just a bribe to keep people involved with it between epidemics.

The fact that Trump and Pence have put themselves at the head of the response doesn't inspire confidence. Trump cut back the budget for the US Centre for Disease Control when he first came to power, and he seems to have gutted it, if the US response to the Covid-19 epidemic is anything to go by.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

 

[John S]

On 3/14/2020 10:50 AM, David Brown wrote:

On 14/03/2020 13:46, John S wrote:
On 3/13/2020 8:54 AM, David Brown wrote:
On 13/03/2020 06:45, Rick C wrote:
On Friday, March 13, 2020 at 12:46:28 AM UTC-4, Robert Baer wrote:

* Excuse me, but doesn't it spread in the air?

You are excused.

While droplets containing the virus can be spread through the air,
the means of picking up the droplets is most often by touching
something and then touching your mucous membranes, eyes, nose, mouth.
The droplets can remain airborne for some time, but on a surface the
virus can live for many hours or even some days.  Droplets aren't
going to remain airborne nearly that long.

There isn't much you can do about breathing.  But you can wash your
hands and try not to touch your face until you have washed.  There
are no guarantees in life, but you can play the smart odds.


That is all good advice.

It applies equally to normal flu, and most other viruses - the path is
mainly cough/sneeze droplets to surface, then surface to face.

It's worth noting that most people don't know how to wash their hands
properly to minimise the risk of giving or getting an infection.

And as you noted, an alcohol wipe is of little use - you want 30 seconds
of wet alcohol to deactivate the virus.  (If the virus is protected by
sneeze droplets or other mucus, it takes minutes - but one would hope it
is obvious that you should at least wipe globs of phlegm from your hands
if you can't wash them.)  Washing is more effective than alcohol
sanitizers for your hands, when possible.

Disinfectant on surfaces is fine.


(Some viruses, such as noroviruses, are almost completely unaffected by
alcohol, so washing is good general practice.)


What about hydrogen peroxide rather than alcohol?

A little hydrogen peroxide is a good idea - hand sanitizer usually has
about 3% of it.  (Too much is not good for your skin.)  But still,
washing with soap and water is generally best when possible.

Yes. I use it on my cutting board after a soap and water wipe. The
cutting board is 75 x 54 cm.

Also, I have a germicidal UV-C lamp which I use on certain items
(mail, for example). Comment?

Sure, use it on items that might be infected (you have to be quite
paranoid to use it on your mail) - UV is commonly used for sterilising
medical equipment.  Don't try it on your hands, however - you'll kill
your skin cells before you destroy any virus particles.

Mail was only an example. I do not use it anywhere on my body. My
dermatologist tells me to stay out of the sun. I take vitamin D instead.

 

John S <Sophi.2@invalid.org> wrote in
news:r4jo1o$63i$5@dont-email.me:

The point was that bacteria is germs, and virus is not. Germs
self
replicate. A virus needs a host cell to duplicate itself.


Cite?

Are you really that fucking stupid?

Bacteria multiply on their own.

A virus requires a living host cell.

Are you so goddamned stupid now that YOU "can't google", you "goose
not gander" dumbfuck?

 

John S <Sophi.2@invalid.org> wrote in news:r4jnjo$63i$4@dont-email.me:

Also, corona VIRUS is NOT "a germ" nor is it a bacteria.

By #1 above, you are AlwaysWrong.

If #1 above means a fucking thing. I am sure your google selection
was one of many available.

And by your LAME use of the LAME group fucktard's "AlwaysWrong"
moniker, makes you a lame fuck as well, you immature piece of shit.

Google that. Better yet, get the fucking virus and die, jackass.

 

[John S]

On 3/13/2020 1:14 PM, John Robertson wrote:

On 2020/03/13 12:26 a.m., Rick C wrote:
On Friday, March 13, 2020 at 2:56:59 AM UTC-4, Mikko OH2HVJ wrote:
Rick C <gnuarm.deletethisbit@gmail.com> writes:

Alcohol is also not particularly useful unless used appropriately
which most people, including hospital workers, fail to do.  It is used
in places where frequent hand cleaning is required because it is less
drying or irritating to skin than soap.  But for most of us, soap and
water are much more effective at killing/removing all germs including
both bacteria and viruses.  In fact, soap and water are particularly
good at killing viruses by dissolving the lipid layers that hold the
virus together, essentially dissolving them into particles.

You're right - soap+water is a good combination. I was quite surprised
when in a biomedical lab they told they use soap to dissolve lipids to
extract RNA. The 'soap' was apparently not something you can get from
the closest supermarket, but also not too far from common cleaning
agent.

I have read nothing about triclosan use resulting in resistant strains
of bacteria. If it did, they would only be resistant to triclosan
whichwould not be a great loss.

Unfortunately triclosan resistance is sometimes related to
antiobiotic resistance:
https://www.health.harvard.edu/blog/are-antibacterial-products-with-triclosan-fueling-bacterial-resistance-2019080617473


Learn something every day.  I would have never expected this.  "Based
on these data, we hypothesized that triclosan exposure may
inadvertently drive bacteria into a state in which they are able to
tolerate normally lethal concentrations of antibiotics."

Another point they made is that people seldom do more than a cursory
wash.  Many public bathrooms have automatic soap dispensers that don't
provide enough soap even after three applications.  It takes some
serious washing to do enough damage to the pathogens on your hands.  I
believe a doctor told me he scrubbed for 15 minutes before surgery.
That is the sort of thing they actually do studies on to see how long
is needed before the benefit ends.  So 10 seconds under a cold water
tap isn't going to do much.

As to the people who don't wash at all...  I was working at a largish
company and realized that while I was washing my hands someone had
come into the bathroom, used the urinal and walked out... without
washing of course.  I knew the guy and realized I would not be shaking
his hand.  It left a bit of a permanent mark on me and now I don't
want to touch the door handle on leaving the wash room.  I use the
paper towel to open the door.  If they have no paper towels, I use
toilet paper.  Yeah, it's a phobia, but it does have some logic behind
it.  I'm not the only one either.  Many people use the paper towel to
open the door and then throw it on the floor behind the door if the
trash can is not close by.

At least I'm already trained for the Corona virus.


Using a paper towel to open the bathroom door is common here in Canadian
restaurants, theatres, etc. - any public places and many businesses.
They will have a garbage pail right beside the exit door for receiving
the used paper.

You are not phobic, it is simply good practice in washrooms!

I wholeheartedly agree. I do the same.

Our municipal, provincial and federal government have been posting
continuous updates as this spread, but then - like most countries - we
have 3 levels of government disaster planning organizations that weren't
kneecapped...

John

 

For an idea of how quickly case numbers can explode, look
to Italy. One week after it hit 320 cases, the country
reported 2,036; a week later, nearly 10,000; next week
that number will likely rise to 50,000 or more. There’s
nothing I have seen that tells me the exact same thing
isn’t coming for us in the UK. We only have around 4,000
intensive care unit (ICU) beds in England, 80% of which
are already full. If we follow the same trajectory as
Italy, with 10% of coronavirus patients needing ICU treatment,
we will need 200 beds next week, 1,000 the week after.
That’s already the entire ICU capacity. Every two days
after that, we will need twice the number of beds again.

That's exactly what happened in China, only worst. And the same
in happening in Italy, even with the first warning. Unfortunately,
it's going to happen to you (UK) and me (US), despite the first
and second warnings.

We, in the US, are not really tracing virus sources, not (enough)
restricting of travels and social gatherings. We are destined
to repeat Wuhan and Italy.

 

[John S]

On 3/13/2020 2:22 PM, DecadentLinuxUserNumeroUno@decadence.org wrote:

David Brown <david.brown@hesbynett.no> wrote in
news:r4g4t2$1oj$1@dont-email.me:

"Sanitizers" supposedly kill up to 95% germs.

Any figures like that are meaningless. In particular, there is no
indication as to whether it is is 95% of types of pathogen, 95% of
quantity, or how they decide which set of pathogens should be
counted.


What is a 'germ'?

1. a microorganism, especially one which causes disease.
2. a portion of an organism capable of developing into a new one or part
of one.

You don't know how to Google?


> Also, corona VIRUS is NOT "a germ" nor is it a bacteria.

By #1 above, you are AlwaysWrong.

If you do not GET IT on your hands, you do NOT have to wash
anything off your hands

Sanitizers are lame because they defat the tissue, which makes it
MORE porous and able to attach to debris.

Ordinary hand soap is fine. Do some dishes in nice HOT water.

Product advertising is like Doanld John Trump telling you he is a
stable genius and that he knows how to do good business.

The mobbed up criminal level NYC syhster landlord is as far from
being any kind of genius as is Sarah Palin. And he is a business
failure. He is also decidedly, a crisis response failure as well.
The guy is an abject idiot. WAKE UP AMERICA.

 

John S <Sophi.2@invalid.org> wrote in
news:r4jnjo$63i$4@dont-email.me:

1. a microorganism, especially one which causes disease.
2. a portion of an organism capable of developing into a new one
or part of one.

You don't know how to Google?

You obviously cannot comprehend what you read.

It was sarcasm, ya dopey dork.

The point was that bacteria is germs, and virus is not. Germs self
replicate. A virus needs a host cell to duplicate itself.

 

[John S]

On 3/14/2020 6:04 PM, DecadentLinuxUserNumeroUno@decadence.org wrote:

John S <Sophi.2@invalid.org> wrote in
news:r4jnjo$63i$4@dont-email.me:

1. a microorganism, especially one which causes disease.
2. a portion of an organism capable of developing into a new one
or part of one.

You don't know how to Google?


You obviously cannot comprehend what you read.

You obviously cannot read what you comprehend.

> It was sarcasm, ya dopey dork.

Didn't see the customary smiley face.

The point was that bacteria is germs, and virus is not. Germs self
replicate. A virus needs a host cell to duplicate itself.

Cite?

 

[Bill Sloman]

On Sunday, March 15, 2020 at 2:01:58 AM UTC+11, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:

On Sat, 14 Mar 2020 08:49:09 +0000, Tom Gardner
spamjunk@blueyonder.co.uk> wrote:

On 14/03/20 02:09, Bill Sloman wrote:
China has cut it's new case rate down to ten a day, and is starting to unlock the lock-down in selected areas.

It will be *very* interesting to see what happens.

If they go back to business and population density as usual, there
will be many, many sources of reinfection.

If there are many, many undetected infections running around to do the re-infection. Ten new cases a day being detected implies that there were perhaps one or two hundred undetected cases running around infecting people five days ago, most of which will have already already started showing symptoms and been recognised as new cases over the past five days.

The infection in China started in Wuhan, and the numbers outside of Hubei province don't seem to have been all that high, so the fact that there are 1..386 billion of them isn't the relevant statistic.

But ten a day in a population of 1.4 billion? Some people will believe
anything.

John Larkin is very selective in what he is sceptical about. Donald Trump and denialist web-sites are completely reliable - according to him - but his gut feel has to be much more reliable than China's published Covid-19 infection statistics.

A more interesting question is what China would have to gain from lying about their statistics. If the container loads of consumer goods don't start flowing again soon, nobody is going to pay any attention to what China is saying about it's infection rate.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

 

[Bill Sloman]

On Sunday, March 15, 2020 at 11:30:44 AM UTC+11, dca...@krl.org wrote:

On Saturday, March 14, 2020 at 7:48:00 PM UTC-4, Lasse Langwadt Christensen wrote:


Hopefully here in the US, they will treat ALL infirmed by it.

the issue is whether there is the capacity to do that if it spread too fast

My guess is that capacity is not going to be a problem.

Not a widely held opinion.

> There is a lot of excess capacity right now

Right now the US numbers are still rising exponentially.

> and the percentage of cases that require hospitalization is small.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

The current statistics say that 8% of cases are serious or critical. That's not small when the disease is epidemic.

> There may be problems with matching patients and beds

When there are more patients than beds that isn't the major problem.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

 

[Bill Sloman]

On Sunday, March 15, 2020 at 10:12:56 AM UTC+11, edward...@gmail.com wrote:

A more interesting question is what China would have to gain from lying about their statistics.

Forcing (or tricking) people back to work.

But if they were to come down with the Covid-19 infection, they wouldn't work all that effectively, and they'd develop a remarkably low opinion of the government that had lied to them and killed off quite a few of their co-workers.

You do need to keep in mind that the people who are making the decisions are old enough the Covid-19 is more likely to kill them than it would be to kill the people you imagine they are lying to.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

 

[Rick C]

On Saturday, March 14, 2020 at 7:45:11 PM UTC-4, John S wrote:

On 3/14/2020 6:09 PM, DecadentLinuxUserNumeroUno@decadence.org wrote:
John S <Sophi.2@invalid.org> wrote in
news:r4jo1o$63i$5@dont-email.me:

The point was that bacteria is germs, and virus is not. Germs
self
replicate. A virus needs a host cell to duplicate itself.


Cite?

Are you really that fucking stupid?

Bacteria multiply on their own.

A virus requires a living host cell.

Are you so goddamned stupid now that YOU "can't google", you "goose
not gander" dumbfuck?


I love tweaking you. You're so much fun.

It's annoying as hell to the rest of us. Do you pull the wings off flies and kick dogs too?

--

Rick C.

+--- Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
+--- Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

 

[John S]

On 3/14/2020 6:09 PM, DecadentLinuxUserNumeroUno@decadence.org wrote:

John S <Sophi.2@invalid.org> wrote in
news:r4jo1o$63i$5@dont-email.me:

The point was that bacteria is germs, and virus is not. Germs
self
replicate. A virus needs a host cell to duplicate itself.


Cite?

Are you really that fucking stupid?

Bacteria multiply on their own.

A virus requires a living host cell.

Are you so goddamned stupid now that YOU "can't google", you "goose
not gander" dumbfuck?

https://www.quickanddirtytips.com/education/science/virus-germ-or-bacteria

"In modern times, the term “germ” isn't widely used in formal science.
Instead, disease-causing objects are referred to by what type they are.
Viruses and bacteria are types of germs, as are certain types of fungi,
protists, and prions"

Now waiting for your, ummm, informed cite. Even without calling you the
name you deserve (and you know what that is).

 

[John S]

On 3/14/2020 6:09 PM, DecadentLinuxUserNumeroUno@decadence.org wrote:

John S <Sophi.2@invalid.org> wrote in
news:r4jo1o$63i$5@dont-email.me:

The point was that bacteria is germs, and virus is not. Germs
self
replicate. A virus needs a host cell to duplicate itself.


Cite?

Are you really that fucking stupid?

Bacteria multiply on their own.

A virus requires a living host cell.

Are you so goddamned stupid now that YOU "can't google", you "goose
not gander" dumbfuck?

I love tweaking you. You're so much fun.

 

[Lasse Langwadt Christense]

søndag den 15. marts 2020 kl. 00.27.08 UTC+1 skrev DecadentLinux...@decadence.org:

edward.ming.lee@gmail.com wrote in
news:a8ba5f16-1066-4f97-938c-74e49b551aad@googlegroups.com:

A more interesting question is what China would have to gain from
lying about their statistics.

Forcing (or tricking) people back to work.


Unlike how suck the 1918 flu got everyone, it still passed
eventually.

This one will pass to from seeing the South Korea stats, and those
from China too, if they are to be believed to be an accurate
representation as are the Korea stats.

That is regardless of whether they started out by not providing
data.

This thing will pass. It will take those of us it takes. Sad but
true. Most will fight and beat it with some showing little or no
symptoms. Some, however will respond violently to it, and contract
pneumonia and fall very ill and some will pass from us.

The differences are that in some nations, they guage whether or not
to treat eder victims at all.

Hopefully here in the US, they will treat ALL infirmed by it.

the issue is whether there is the capacity to do that if it spread too fast

 

[Bill Sloman]

On Sunday, March 15, 2020 at 10:27:08 AM UTC+11, DecadentLinux...@decadence..org wrote:

edward.ming.lee@gmail.com wrote in
news:a8ba5f16-1066-4f97-938c-74e49b551aad@googlegroups.com:

A more interesting question is what China would have to gain from
lying about their statistics.

Forcing (or tricking) people back to work.


Unlike how sick the 1918 flu got everyone, it still passed
eventually.

This one will pass to from seeing the South Korea stats, and those
from China too, if they are to be believed to be an accurate
representation as are the Korea stats.

The statistics record the effectiveness of social distancing.

https://www.econlib.org/the-answer-one-week/

The rate of new infections in South Korea is now dropping back. Italy d\has done as well.

That is regardless of whether they started out by not providing
data.

This thing will pass. It will take those of us it takes.

Effective social distancing can mean that it take a lot fewer than it might..

Italy now has a higher rate of new cases per day than China had at its peak..

> Sad but true.

Not true at all. China has demonstrated that youcan dramatically reduce the rate of infection. Italy has demonstrated that lock-down has to enforced to be effective. The US looks even more like a bunch of headless chickens than the Italians. If you haven't got enough virus testing kits, your chances of cutting back the infection rate aren't going to be good..

Most will fight and beat it with some showing little or no
symptoms. Some, however will respond violently to it, and contract
pneumonia and fall very ill and some will pass from us.

The differences are that in some nations, they gauge whether or not
to treat elder victims at all.

The difference is the number that need treatment, and the capacity of the medical system to treat the number of people that could benefit from it.

> Hopefully here in the US, they will treat ALL infected by it.

Even the US medical system has a finite capacity, and their habit is to treat the people who can pay the most for the treatment.

You can't create the capacity to treat very sick patients over-night.

If you know what's going on, you can persuade people to isolate themselves and not infect too many others, which can reduce the number who are sick at any given moment. But Trump gutted the Centre for Disease Control when he first came to power, and the US is now woefully short of virus testing kits..

> Either way, most of us will get through it.

There is a third way which could mean that most of you wouldn't have to get through it, but Trump may have blocked it for the population of the US.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

 

On Saturday, March 14, 2020 at 5:15:21 PM UTC-7, Bill Sloman wrote:

On Sunday, March 15, 2020 at 10:12:56 AM UTC+11, edward...@gmail.com wrote:
A more interesting question is what China would have to gain from lying about their statistics.

Forcing (or tricking) people back to work.

But if they were to come down with the Covid-19 infection, they wouldn't work all that effectively, and they'd develop a remarkably low opinion of the government that had lied to them and killed off quite a few of their co-workers.

There is a common saying that the chance of dying from covid-19 is only 5%, but the chance of dying from hunger is 100%. Anyway, if they simply disappear, it's not as bad as dying. In China, sick people never die, they just disappear.

 

[dcaster@krl.org]

On Saturday, March 14, 2020 at 7:48:00 PM UTC-4, Lasse Langwadt Christensen wrote:

Hopefully here in the US, they will treat ALL infirmed by it.

the issue is whether there is the capacity to do that if it spread too fast

My guess is that capacity is not going to be a problem. There is a lot of excess capacity right now and the percentage of cases that require hospitalization is small. There may be problems with matching patients and beds

Dan

 

[Rick C]

On Saturday, March 14, 2020 at 6:54:14 PM UTC-4, edward...@gmail.com wrote:

For an idea of how quickly case numbers can explode, look
to Italy. One week after it hit 320 cases, the country
reported 2,036; a week later, nearly 10,000; next week
that number will likely rise to 50,000 or more. There’s
nothing I have seen that tells me the exact same thing
isn’t coming for us in the UK. We only have around 4,000
intensive care unit (ICU) beds in England, 80% of which
are already full. If we follow the same trajectory as
Italy, with 10% of coronavirus patients needing ICU treatment,
we will need 200 beds next week, 1,000 the week after.
That’s already the entire ICU capacity. Every two days
after that, we will need twice the number of beds again.

That's exactly what happened in China, only worst. And the same
in happening in Italy, even with the first warning. Unfortunately,
it's going to happen to you (UK) and me (US), despite the first
and second warnings.

We, in the US, are not really tracing virus sources, not (enough)
restricting of travels and social gatherings. We are destined
to repeat Wuhan and Italy.

Here in the US we have not restricted travel inside the US, but gatherings are definitely being limited with nearly all of the larger ones shut down.

I have a friend in a retirement community. They have independent living, assisted living and nursing care. Today they told everyone the dining rooms are closed and that all residents should remain in their homes and admit no one. Required deliveries will be made including meals if needed. I'd say they are taking this seriously.

--

Rick C.

-+++ Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
-+++ Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209