On 13/03/20 15:58, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Fri, 13 Mar 2020 15:44:07 +0000, Tom Gardner
spamjunk@blueyonder.co.uk> wrote:
On 13/03/20 14:51, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On 12 Mar 2020 19:16:05 -0700, Winfield Hill <winfieldhill@yahoo.com
wrote:
Today I got emails from the CEOs of three companies
about their actions to protect us against Covid-19.
Walmart said their stores are cleaned daily, with
sanitizing solutions. Subway said they're cleaning
most-touched surfaces once per hour. A local pub-
restaurant, Tavern in the Square, uses disinfectant
wipes to clean and sanitize all tables, phones, POS-
screens, check presenters, booths, chairs and menus
in between guest's seatings. Plus five other items.
We have signs up, "if you are sick, stay home."
https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/health/coronavirus-facts-vs-panic
So far, this is a modest flu that has been hyper-hyped by the internet
and politics. Possibly many people have had it and barely noticed.
In that case you wouldn't worry (about coronavirus!) if you
needed to go to Italy or South Korea.
Really?
Apparently kids don't get this. So why are we closing schools?
Not all responses are sensible. There can be a lot of
"health theatre" - cf "security theatre" i.e. visible
actions that people suppose increase security but
actually don't.
The UK appears quite sensible in that respect, but
time will tell.
Given Trump's past statements and actions, I wouldn't expect
much sense to come from Trump. Apparently as recently as
Tuesday he was saying, "It will go away, just stay calm."
The 1918 flu went away. All flus peak and go away, sometimes to mutate
for a future outbreak.
... as I noted in my next paragraph
Eventually everyone who is suceptable gets it
and becomes immune or dies. Isolation and general panic can reduce the
growth rate somewhat until a vaccine is available. There is math to
epidemilogy, but I don't see any in the press, just silly stuff.
You aren't looking at the right press
But in one sense Trump is right: /eventually/ it will
"go away" just as Spanish Flu "went away". But the problem
is what happens between now and then. Spanish Flu
killed about 1% of the world's population.
Crude and expensive public measures may well just change the time
scale of the process, possibly chop off the tail a little or keep it
out of some small populations. The 1918 flu came in two waves, which
is interesting dynamics.
To understand why changing the timescale of the process
may be very useful, spend one minute understanding
https://flowingdata.com/2020/03/09/flatten-the-coronavirus-curve/
On Friday, March 13, 2020 at 5:47:00 AM UTC-4, Tom Gardner wrote:
I am expecting my 98yo mother to catch it sometime. She will, rightly, not
be a priority, and it will kill her. Her grandmother survived the 1919 flu
and significantly influenced my mother. She died in her mid 90s, having
been born in the mid 30s. 1830s, that is. 100 years is not a long time
Why is it right that your mother's health "not be a priority"??? I guess I
shouldn't ask that. It's not likely I'll appreciate the answer.
On 13/03/20 17:57, Rick C wrote:
On Friday, March 13, 2020 at 5:47:00 AM UTC-4, Tom Gardner wrote:
I am expecting my 98yo mother to catch it sometime. She will, rightly, not
be a priority, and it will kill her. Her grandmother survived the 1919 flu
and significantly influenced my mother. She died in her mid 90s, having
been born in the mid 30s. 1830s, that is. 100 years is not a long time
Why is it right that your mother's health "not be a priority"??? I guess I
shouldn't ask that. It's not likely I'll appreciate the answer.
Triage dear boy, triage.
Given limited and insufficient resources, you put your efforts
where they will do the most good.
Wow, that's all too deep in the 'conspiracy theory' weeds for me.
Nice, but maybe think about masks and/ or a little distance too.
Re: the press.
On 2020-03-13 15:06, George Herold wrote:
On Friday, March 13, 2020 at 11:51:09 AM UTC-4, Phil Hobbs wrote:
On 2020-03-13 11:05, George Herold wrote:
On Friday, March 13, 2020 at 10:24:51 AM UTC-4, Phil Hobbs wrote:
On 2020-03-13 09:34, George Herold wrote:
On Thursday, March 12, 2020 at 10:17:54 PM UTC-4, Winfield Hill wrote:
Today I got emails from the CEOs of three companies
about their actions to protect us against Covid-19.
Walmart said their stores are cleaned daily, with
sanitizing solutions. Subway said they're cleaning
most-touched surfaces once per hour. A local pub-
restaurant, Tavern in the Square, uses disinfectant
wipes to clean and sanitize all tables, phones, POS-
screens, check presenters, booths, chairs and menus
in between guest's seatings. Plus five other items.
--
Thanks,
- Win
Sam Harris had a nice talk with Amesh Adalji.
https://samharris.org/podcast/
Where he says that hand stuff is fine, but that the virus is mostly
spread by water droplets we breath out... say it don't spray it...
with a range of a few meters. Which I guess, then face masks would help
you from not spreading it... by stopping some of your spray.
He also predicts that in ~ 1 year 30-50% of the US will have had the
virus. And we should be preparing for the medical overload.
George H.
IIRC about ten years ago it was discovered that all endemic 'flu bugs
are descended from the 1918 'flu.
Hmm I have no idea. I'm guessing all the infectious disease books
on amazon are 'sold out' along with the hand sanitizers. :^)
The experts mostly talk about mutations from some animal virus.
The fact that the Wuhan market is only a block away from the Level 4
biocontainment facility strongly suggests that it came from there.
China's a big place--what are the odds of that being an accident?
Especially since the first dozen or so patients hadn't ever been to that
market?
It may not have been genetically modified yet--perhaps it was just
collected from the wild and not stored as carefully as the strains known
to be very hot. It seems to hit Chinese men hardest of all, so it
obviously isn't a PRC bioweapon, thanks be to God.
It kills almost exclusively the old, so it's no military use to anybody.
The 1918 flu killed mostly young adults.
Wow, that's all too deep in the 'conspiracy theory' weeds for me.
Not saying you are wrong though.
I've always wondered if so many young men died in 1918
'cause they were all bunched together for the war... the
perfect place to spread a virus. I think I heard one of these
guys say that the 1918 bug was also spread by droplets in the air.
but don't quote me on that.
Amesh Adalja (I mis-spelled his name above) is not as worried as many.
~5-10 times worse than 'normal' flu. (which could still be
~500,000 dead worse case)
I get the message from the infectious disease guys that,
"We've been warning you of this."
And also... "we need more data".
Yup.
Cheers
Phil Hobbs
(Who is making hand sanitizer for the Saturday Men's Bible Study that I
host at the lab--1/3 hair gel, 2/3 Everclear. Result: 124 proof, same
as Purell. Aloe Vera gel would be better, if I can find some.)
Nice, but maybe think about masks and/ or a little distance too.
Feel free to call me paranoid here, I've been food and stuff
prepping for a few weeks now....
part of the panic,
George h.
I've been laying in beans, rice, flour, and such like, so that we can
help our neighbours if things really go pear-shaped for a few months.
If it fizzles out, I'll donate most of it to a soup kitchen. I also
have a lot of plastic bags and oxygen absorbers, so white flour, white
rice, and beans will keep for a long time. I'm going to stick them in a
couple of brand new galvanized trash cans to keep the rodents out. An
amazing percentage of the world lives on that sort of fare every day.
Maybe we can barter bread for toilet paper and hand sanitizer.
On 2020-03-13 15:06, George Herold wrote:
On Friday, March 13, 2020 at 11:51:09 AM UTC-4, Phil Hobbs wrote:
On 2020-03-13 11:05, George Herold wrote:
On Friday, March 13, 2020 at 10:24:51 AM UTC-4, Phil Hobbs wrote:
On 2020-03-13 09:34, George Herold wrote:
On Thursday, March 12, 2020 at 10:17:54 PM UTC-4, Winfield Hill wrote:
Today I got emails from the CEOs of three companies
about their actions to protect us against Covid-19.
Walmart said their stores are cleaned daily, with
sanitizing solutions. Subway said they're cleaning
most-touched surfaces once per hour. A local pub-
restaurant, Tavern in the Square, uses disinfectant
wipes to clean and sanitize all tables, phones, POS-
screens, check presenters, booths, chairs and menus
in between guest's seatings. Plus five other items.
--
Thanks,
- Win
Sam Harris had a nice talk with Amesh Adalji.
https://samharris.org/podcast/
Where he says that hand stuff is fine, but that the virus is mostly
spread by water droplets we breath out... say it don't spray it...
with a range of a few meters. Which I guess, then face masks would help
you from not spreading it... by stopping some of your spray.
He also predicts that in ~ 1 year 30-50% of the US will have had the
virus. And we should be preparing for the medical overload.
George H.
IIRC about ten years ago it was discovered that all endemic 'flu bugs
are descended from the 1918 'flu.
Hmm I have no idea. I'm guessing all the infectious disease books
on amazon are 'sold out' along with the hand sanitizers. :^)
The experts mostly talk about mutations from some animal virus.
The fact that the Wuhan market is only a block away from the Level 4
biocontainment facility strongly suggests that it came from there.
China's a big place--what are the odds of that being an accident?
Especially since the first dozen or so patients hadn't ever been to that
market?
It may not have been genetically modified yet--perhaps it was just
collected from the wild and not stored as carefully as the strains known
to be very hot. It seems to hit Chinese men hardest of all, so it
obviously isn't a PRC bioweapon, thanks be to God.
It kills almost exclusively the old, so it's no military use to anybody.
The 1918 flu killed mostly young adults.
Wow, that's all too deep in the 'conspiracy theory' weeds for me.
Not saying you are wrong though.
I've always wondered if so many young men died in 1918
'cause they were all bunched together for the war... the
perfect place to spread a virus. I think I heard one of these
guys say that the 1918 bug was also spread by droplets in the air.
but don't quote me on that.
Amesh Adalja (I mis-spelled his name above) is not as worried as many.
~5-10 times worse than 'normal' flu. (which could still be
~500,000 dead worse case)
I get the message from the infectious disease guys that,
"We've been warning you of this."
And also... "we need more data".
Yup.
Cheers
Phil Hobbs
(Who is making hand sanitizer for the Saturday Men's Bible Study that I
host at the lab--1/3 hair gel, 2/3 Everclear. Result: 124 proof, same
as Purell. Aloe Vera gel would be better, if I can find some.)
Nice, but maybe think about masks and/ or a little distance too.
Feel free to call me paranoid here, I've been food and stuff
prepping for a few weeks now....
part of the panic,
George h.
I've been laying in beans, rice, flour, and such like, so that we can
help our neighbours if things really go pear-shaped for a few months.
If it fizzles out, I'll donate most of it to a soup kitchen. I also
have a lot of plastic bags and oxygen absorbers, so white flour, white
rice, and beans will keep for a long time. I'm going to stick them in a
couple of brand new galvanized trash cans to keep the rodents out. An
amazing percentage of the world lives on that sort of fare every day.
Maybe we can barter bread for toilet paper and hand sanitizer.
Cheers
Phil Hobbs