OT: CEO responses to Covid-19

[Tom Gardner]

On 13/03/20 14:51, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:

On 12 Mar 2020 19:16:05 -0700, Winfield Hill <winfieldhill@yahoo.com
wrote:

Today I got emails from the CEOs of three companies
about their actions to protect us against Covid-19.
Walmart said their stores are cleaned daily, with
sanitizing solutions. Subway said they're cleaning
most-touched surfaces once per hour. A local pub-
restaurant, Tavern in the Square, uses disinfectant
wipes to clean and sanitize all tables, phones, POS-
screens, check presenters, booths, chairs and menus
in between guest's seatings. Plus five other items.

We have signs up, "if you are sick, stay home."

https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/health/coronavirus-facts-vs-panic

So far, this is a modest flu that has been hyper-hyped by the internet
and politics. Possibly many people have had it and barely noticed.

In that case you wouldn't worry (about coronavirus!) if you
needed to go to Italy or South Korea.

Really?


> Apparently kids don't get this. So why are we closing schools?

Not all responses are sensible. There can be a lot of
"health theatre" - cf "security theatre" i.e. visible
actions that people suppose increase security but
actually don't.

The UK appears quite sensible in that respect, but
time will tell.

Given Trump's past statements and actions, I wouldn't expect
much sense to come from Trump. Apparently as recently as
Tuesday he was saying, "It will go away, just stay calm."

But in one sense Trump is right: /eventually/ it will
"go away" just as Spanish Flu "went away". But the problem
is what happens between now and then. Spanish Flu
killed about 1% of the world's population.

 

[George Herold]

On Friday, March 13, 2020 at 10:52:01 AM UTC-4, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:

On 12 Mar 2020 19:16:05 -0700, Winfield Hill <winfieldhill@yahoo.com
wrote:

Today I got emails from the CEOs of three companies
about their actions to protect us against Covid-19.
Walmart said their stores are cleaned daily, with
sanitizing solutions. Subway said they're cleaning
most-touched surfaces once per hour. A local pub-
restaurant, Tavern in the Square, uses disinfectant
wipes to clean and sanitize all tables, phones, POS-
screens, check presenters, booths, chairs and menus
in between guest's seatings. Plus five other items.

We have signs up, "if you are sick, stay home."

https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/health/coronavirus-facts-vs-panic

So far, this is a modest flu that has been hyper-hyped by the internet
and politics. Possibly many people have had it and barely noticed.

Apparently kids don't get this. So why are we closing schools?

Hmm I'd recommend the Sam Harris podcast with Amesh A. But Sam is a bit
of a Trump basher.. so you may not like it in that regard.
(It does stink that absolutely everything is political these days.)

A few things he says:
You are infectious for a few days before you show signs of being sick,
so staying home when sick may be too late.
Kids don't have an extreme reaction, but they still get sick and then
transport it home. So the idea is to try and slow the spread.
Overall the idea is to flatten the infection curve... spread the
time out so that our health care system can handle it.
AIUI Italy is in a bit of crisis mode at the moment.
(Any Italians on SED with a report?)

Lots of other useful info.

George H.

--

John Larkin Highland Technology, Inc

The cork popped merrily, and Lord Peter rose to his feet.
"Bunter", he said, "I give you a toast. The triumph of Instinct over Reason"

 

On Friday, March 13, 2020 at 9:41:17 AM UTC-4, Winfield Hill wrote:

Bill Sloman wrote...

Tom Gardner wrote:

The most such measures can do is *delay* the spread
of infection; they are unlikely to *reduce* it.

If they delay it long enough, somebody will have come
up with an effective vaccine.

I don't have much hope for the vaccine approach. To work
well a huge fraction of the population must be vaccinated.
That's after laborious testing, approval and manufacturing.

A more hopeful path is the rapid development of custom-
designed highly-effective Covid-19 therapeutics. These
are easier to create and get approved, and much smaller
quantities are required to squash the death rate, even
for the very old and compromised. A number of companies
and organizations are making good progress on this.


--
Thanks,
- Win

If by therapeutics you mean antivirals, they don't have anything customized for corona yet. They're throwing a bunch of money at Gilead with their remdesivir, which is an ebola antiviral that has shown "promising" results in monkeys, and this is now being applied in clinical trials in China. Generally the antivirals that target only one stage of replication eventually fail and the virus bounces back through mutation. Then you end up with is a virus circulating in the general population that's resistant to your one and only treatment. Antivirals can be highly toxic and therefore require extensive safety testing, so don't expect them to be available quickly.
Two biotechs in your neck of the woods, Biogen and Vir, just received big money to develop the monoclonal antibody approach:
https://www.genengnews.com/news/biogen-vir-to-partner-on-manufacturing-antibodies-to-treat-covid-19/
This is the modernized method of survivor serum transfusion, more effective and scalable. I believe this treatment is only administered to people with severe symptoms. It doesn't work like a vaccine.
As a practical matter, you should plan on NOTHING being available to treat the virus for a very long time.

 

[Phil Hobbs]

On 2020-03-13 11:05, George Herold wrote:

On Friday, March 13, 2020 at 10:24:51 AM UTC-4, Phil Hobbs wrote:
On 2020-03-13 09:34, George Herold wrote:
On Thursday, March 12, 2020 at 10:17:54 PM UTC-4, Winfield Hill wrote:
Today I got emails from the CEOs of three companies
about their actions to protect us against Covid-19.
Walmart said their stores are cleaned daily, with
sanitizing solutions. Subway said they're cleaning
most-touched surfaces once per hour. A local pub-
restaurant, Tavern in the Square, uses disinfectant
wipes to clean and sanitize all tables, phones, POS-
screens, check presenters, booths, chairs and menus
in between guest's seatings. Plus five other items.


--
Thanks,
- Win

Sam Harris had a nice talk with Amesh Adalji.

https://samharris.org/podcast/

Where he says that hand stuff is fine, but that the virus is mostly
spread by water droplets we breath out... say it don't spray it...
with a range of a few meters. Which I guess, then face masks would help
you from not spreading it... by stopping some of your spray.

He also predicts that in ~ 1 year 30-50% of the US will have had the
virus. And we should be preparing for the medical overload.

George H.


IIRC about ten years ago it was discovered that all endemic 'flu bugs
are descended from the 1918 'flu.

Hmm I have no idea. I'm guessing all the infectious disease books
on amazon are 'sold out' along with the hand sanitizers. :^)

The experts mostly talk about mutations from some animal virus.

The fact that the Wuhan market is only a block away from the Level 4
biocontainment facility strongly suggests that it came from there.
China's a big place--what are the odds of that being an accident?
Especially since the first dozen or so patients hadn't ever been to that
market?

It may not have been genetically modified yet--perhaps it was just
collected from the wild and not stored as carefully as the strains known
to be very hot. It seems to hit Chinese men hardest of all, so it
obviously isn't a PRC bioweapon, thanks be to God.

It kills almost exclusively the old, so it's no military use to anybody.
The 1918 flu killed mostly young adults.

Amesh Adalja (I mis-spelled his name above) is not as worried as many.
~5-10 times worse than 'normal' flu. (which could still be
~500,000 dead worse case)

I get the message from the infectious disease guys that,
"We've been warning you of this."
And also... "we need more data".

Yup.

Cheers

Phil Hobbs

(Who is making hand sanitizer for the Saturday Men's Bible Study that I
host at the lab--1/3 hair gel, 2/3 Everclear. Result: 124 proof, same
as Purell. Aloe Vera gel would be better, if I can find some.)


--
Dr Philip C D Hobbs
Principal Consultant
ElectroOptical Innovations LLC
Optics, Electro-optics, Photonics, Analog Electronics

160 North State Road #203
Briarcliff Manor NY 10510

hobbs at electrooptical dot net
http://electrooptical.net

 

[Phil Hobbs]

On 2020-03-13 10:51, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:

On 12 Mar 2020 19:16:05 -0700, Winfield Hill <winfieldhill@yahoo.com
wrote:

Today I got emails from the CEOs of three companies
about their actions to protect us against Covid-19.
Walmart said their stores are cleaned daily, with
sanitizing solutions. Subway said they're cleaning
most-touched surfaces once per hour. A local pub-
restaurant, Tavern in the Square, uses disinfectant
wipes to clean and sanitize all tables, phones, POS-
screens, check presenters, booths, chairs and menus
in between guest's seatings. Plus five other items.

We have signs up, "if you are sick, stay home."

https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/health/coronavirus-facts-vs-panic

So far, this is a modest flu that has been hyper-hyped by the internet
and politics. Possibly many people have had it and barely noticed.

Apparently kids don't get this. So why are we closing schools?

Because they have grandparents. There are indications that teenagers
are very efficient carriers.

Cheers

Phil Hobbs

--
Dr Philip C D Hobbs
Principal Consultant
ElectroOptical Innovations LLC
Optics, Electro-optics, Photonics, Analog Electronics

160 North State Road #203
Briarcliff Manor NY 10510

hobbs at electrooptical dot net
http://electrooptical.net

 

[Tom Gardner]

On 13/03/20 15:58, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:

On Fri, 13 Mar 2020 15:44:07 +0000, Tom Gardner
spamjunk@blueyonder.co.uk> wrote:

On 13/03/20 14:51, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On 12 Mar 2020 19:16:05 -0700, Winfield Hill <winfieldhill@yahoo.com
wrote:

Today I got emails from the CEOs of three companies
about their actions to protect us against Covid-19.
Walmart said their stores are cleaned daily, with
sanitizing solutions. Subway said they're cleaning
most-touched surfaces once per hour. A local pub-
restaurant, Tavern in the Square, uses disinfectant
wipes to clean and sanitize all tables, phones, POS-
screens, check presenters, booths, chairs and menus
in between guest's seatings. Plus five other items.

We have signs up, "if you are sick, stay home."

https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/health/coronavirus-facts-vs-panic

So far, this is a modest flu that has been hyper-hyped by the internet
and politics. Possibly many people have had it and barely noticed.

In that case you wouldn't worry (about coronavirus!) if you
needed to go to Italy or South Korea.

Really?


Apparently kids don't get this. So why are we closing schools?

Not all responses are sensible. There can be a lot of
"health theatre" - cf "security theatre" i.e. visible
actions that people suppose increase security but
actually don't.

The UK appears quite sensible in that respect, but
time will tell.

Given Trump's past statements and actions, I wouldn't expect
much sense to come from Trump. Apparently as recently as
Tuesday he was saying, "It will go away, just stay calm."

The 1918 flu went away. All flus peak and go away, sometimes to mutate
for a future outbreak.

.... as I noted in my next paragraph

Eventually everyone who is suceptable gets it
and becomes immune or dies. Isolation and general panic can reduce the
growth rate somewhat until a vaccine is available. There is math to
epidemilogy, but I don't see any in the press, just silly stuff.

You aren't looking at the right press

But in one sense Trump is right: /eventually/ it will
"go away" just as Spanish Flu "went away". But the problem
is what happens between now and then. Spanish Flu
killed about 1% of the world's population.

Crude and expensive public measures may well just change the time
scale of the process, possibly chop off the tail a little or keep it
out of some small populations. The 1918 flu came in two waves, which
is interesting dynamics.

To understand why changing the timescale of the process
may be very useful, spend one minute understanding
https://flowingdata.com/2020/03/09/flatten-the-coronavirus-curve/

Now the UK NHS has been politically pared over the years so
that it operates at 95% occupancy. Italy, apparently, has more
spare capacity, but has still been overwhelmed.

 

On Friday, March 13, 2020 at 12:43:03 AM UTC-4, Robert Baer wrote:

DIY? Purposely get exposed and then isolate yourself until well.

It has to be a micro-dose but it is a documented method of developing immunity that has worked in the past. Prostitutes in Nairobi were found to develop immunity to HIV that way.

 

On Fri, 13 Mar 2020 15:44:07 +0000, Tom Gardner
<spamjunk@blueyonder.co.uk> wrote:

On 13/03/20 14:51, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On 12 Mar 2020 19:16:05 -0700, Winfield Hill <winfieldhill@yahoo.com
wrote:

Today I got emails from the CEOs of three companies
about their actions to protect us against Covid-19.
Walmart said their stores are cleaned daily, with
sanitizing solutions. Subway said they're cleaning
most-touched surfaces once per hour. A local pub-
restaurant, Tavern in the Square, uses disinfectant
wipes to clean and sanitize all tables, phones, POS-
screens, check presenters, booths, chairs and menus
in between guest's seatings. Plus five other items.

We have signs up, "if you are sick, stay home."

https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/health/coronavirus-facts-vs-panic

So far, this is a modest flu that has been hyper-hyped by the internet
and politics. Possibly many people have had it and barely noticed.

In that case you wouldn't worry (about coronavirus!) if you
needed to go to Italy or South Korea.

Really?


Apparently kids don't get this. So why are we closing schools?

Not all responses are sensible. There can be a lot of
"health theatre" - cf "security theatre" i.e. visible
actions that people suppose increase security but
actually don't.

The UK appears quite sensible in that respect, but
time will tell.

Given Trump's past statements and actions, I wouldn't expect
much sense to come from Trump. Apparently as recently as
Tuesday he was saying, "It will go away, just stay calm."

The 1918 flu went away. All flus peak and go away, sometimes to mutate
for a future outbreak. Eventually everyone who is suceptable gets it
and becomes immune or dies. Isolation and general panic can reduce the
growth rate somewhat until a vaccine is available. There is math to
epidemilogy, but I don't see any in the press, just silly stuff.

But in one sense Trump is right: /eventually/ it will
"go away" just as Spanish Flu "went away". But the problem
is what happens between now and then. Spanish Flu
killed about 1% of the world's population.

Crude and expensive public measures may well just change the time
scale of the process, possibly chop off the tail a little or keep it
out of some small populations. The 1918 flu came in two waves, which
is interesting dynamics.





--

John Larkin Highland Technology, Inc

The cork popped merrily, and Lord Peter rose to his feet.
"Bunter", he said, "I give you a toast. The triumph of Instinct over Reason"

 

[David Brown]

On 13/03/2020 15:30, Tom Gardner wrote:

On 13/03/20 13:54, David Brown wrote:

And as you noted, an alcohol wipe is of little use - you want 30 seconds
of wet alcohol to deactivate the virus.  (If the virus is protected by
sneeze droplets or other mucus, it takes minutes - but one would hope it
is obvious that you should at least wipe globs of phlegm from your hands
if you can't wash them.)  Washing is more effective than alcohol
sanitizers for your hands, when possible.

The principal advantage of alcohol sanitisers is
that they can be anywhere convenient, whereas
soap-based cleaning has to be near a sink.

Yes. The secondary advantages are that it is a bit faster, especially
if you are on the move, and that you avoid the dry skin problems
associated with too much soap washing. These are particularly important
for medical staff - much less relevant for the majority of other people.

 

[Martin Brown]

On 13/03/2020 15:58, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:

On Fri, 13 Mar 2020 15:44:07 +0000, Tom Gardner
spamjunk@blueyonder.co.uk> wrote:

On 13/03/20 14:51, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On 12 Mar 2020 19:16:05 -0700, Winfield Hill <winfieldhill@yahoo.com
wrote:

Today I got emails from the CEOs of three companies
about their actions to protect us against Covid-19.
Walmart said their stores are cleaned daily, with
sanitizing solutions. Subway said they're cleaning
most-touched surfaces once per hour. A local pub-
restaurant, Tavern in the Square, uses disinfectant
wipes to clean and sanitize all tables, phones, POS-
screens, check presenters, booths, chairs and menus
in between guest's seatings. Plus five other items.

We have signs up, "if you are sick, stay home."

https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/health/coronavirus-facts-vs-panic

So far, this is a modest flu that has been hyper-hyped by the internet
and politics. Possibly many people have had it and barely noticed.

It is somewhat 40x more lethal than seasonal flu and there appears to be
a cohort of people for whom the virus makes them infective without
showing any symptoms or it becomes infective well before symptoms show.
The venue in London where my wife should have been yesterday is being
deep cleaned today after someone tested positive for coronavirus.

In that case you wouldn't worry (about coronavirus!) if you
needed to go to Italy or South Korea.

Really?


Apparently kids don't get this. So why are we closing schools?

UK isn't - at least not yet. Only schools with confirmed cases have been
closed and deep cleaned for a week before reopening.

Not all responses are sensible. There can be a lot of
"health theatre" - cf "security theatre" i.e. visible
actions that people suppose increase security but
actually don't.

The UK appears quite sensible in that respect, but
time will tell.

Much as I think our Prime Minister Boris Johnson is a buffoon he appears
to be listening and acting on the advice of his scientific advisors.
This is a bit of a surprise but credit where it is due.

Trump appears to be a Trojan horse installed by Putin to destroy Western
democracy. His crazy panic speech yesterday totally spooked the markets
and destroyed shareholder value big time.

Given Trump's past statements and actions, I wouldn't expect
much sense to come from Trump. Apparently as recently as
Tuesday he was saying, "It will go away, just stay calm."

The 1918 flu went away. All flus peak and go away, sometimes to mutate
for a future outbreak. Eventually everyone who is suceptable gets it
and becomes immune or dies. Isolation and general panic can reduce the
growth rate somewhat until a vaccine is available. There is math to
epidemilogy, but I don't see any in the press, just silly stuff.

The simplest model is exponential growth which holds good until
something like half the population has been exposed. The best estimate
of the daily exponent is presently between 1.3x and 1.6x based on
current UK figures. The gradient on the infection graphs on those
countries that actually are able to test their population are *VERY*
similar. Italy was caught napping and let it get away from them. See:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51858987

Today's number of cases is 208 confirmed with cumulative 590 yesterday
which is an exponent of 1.35 or an 8 fold increase in cases per week.
That is broadly in line with the slope of the lines on the graphs.

Of course Trump destroyed the US ability to deal with infectious
diseases as one of his first actions after taking office. Who needs
experts when you have inane soundbites from Faux News. It would be
helpful if America could provide statistics on its CV-19 test results.

https://metro.co.uk/2020/03/04/experts-use-pictures-explain-coronavirus-vaccine-trump-12346279/

Who needs scientific and medical experts when you have a Trump?

Better hope that Pence is *really* good at praying...

But in one sense Trump is right: /eventually/ it will
"go away" just as Spanish Flu "went away". But the problem
is what happens between now and then. Spanish Flu
killed about 1% of the world's population.

Crude and expensive public measures may well just change the time
scale of the process, possibly chop off the tail a little or keep it
out of some small populations. The 1918 flu came in two waves, which
is interesting dynamics.

The hope is that they can delay the peak out of winter and avoid totally
saturating the high dependency care hospital systems. Italy is past the
point where some hospitals do not have enough oxygen supply capacity for
all the patients needing it. That is a scary prospect.

The UK government appears to be be doing about the right amount to slow
the spread without shutting everything down. Schools are still open
unless there has been a confirmed case and then they are deep cleaned.

A lot of public events like football, rugby and elections have been
cancelled today. It will certainly get worse before it gets better.

The thing we don't yet have a good feel for is what proportion of the
population have the virus and are infective without showing any
symptoms. Our House of Commons will provide an interesting Petri dish to
study the transmission mechanism in since they are still sitting and a
couple of them have now tested positive (including a health minister).

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus-mp-nadine-dorries-health-minister-covid-19-positive-government-a9392941.html

--
Regards,
Martin Brown

 

[Michael Terrell]

On Friday, March 13, 2020 at 10:52:01 AM UTC-4, jlarkin wrote:

Apparently kids don't get this. So why are we closing schools?

Even if they can't get it, they can carry it home to older family members.

 

[David Brown]

On 13/03/2020 16:51, Phil Hobbs wrote:

On 2020-03-13 11:05, George Herold wrote:
On Friday, March 13, 2020 at 10:24:51 AM UTC-4, Phil Hobbs wrote:
On 2020-03-13 09:34, George Herold wrote:
On Thursday, March 12, 2020 at 10:17:54 PM UTC-4, Winfield Hill wrote:
Today I got emails from the CEOs of three companies
   about their actions to protect us against Covid-19.
   Walmart said their stores are cleaned daily, with
   sanitizing solutions.  Subway said they're cleaning
   most-touched surfaces once per hour.  A local pub-
   restaurant, Tavern in the Square, uses disinfectant
   wipes to clean and sanitize all tables, phones, POS-
   screens, check presenters, booths, chairs and menus
   in between guest's seatings.  Plus five other items.


-- 
   Thanks,
      - Win

Sam Harris had a nice talk with Amesh Adalji.

https://samharris.org/podcast/

Where he says that hand stuff is fine, but that the virus is mostly
spread by water droplets we breath out... say it don't spray it...
with a range of a few meters.  Which I guess, then face masks would
help
you from not spreading it... by stopping some of your spray.

He also predicts that in ~ 1 year 30-50% of the US will have had the
virus.  And we should be preparing for the medical overload.

George H.


IIRC about ten years ago it was discovered that all endemic 'flu bugs
are descended from the 1918 'flu.

Hmm I have no idea.  I'm guessing all the infectious disease books
on amazon are 'sold out' along with the hand sanitizers.  :^)

The experts mostly talk about mutations from some animal virus.

The fact that the Wuhan market is only a block away from the Level 4
biocontainment facility strongly suggests that it came from there.
China's a big place--what are the odds of that being an accident?
Especially since the first dozen or so patients hadn't ever been to that
market?

Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by
stupidity. The Chinese biotech folk at not infallible, but they are not
idiots - they take great precautions in dealing with pathogens, just
like in any other country. Their live animal markets, on the other
hand, are swarming with all sorts of creatures captured illegally by
smugglers from all sorts of places, with no concept of hygiene or
infection safety.

There are no guarantees here, but without new incriminating evidence,
the odds are orders of magnitude on side of it having jumped from an
animal host to a human at the live food market in Wuhan.

The ignorant, paranoid, xenophobic and Trumpists of the world would be
happier to believe it is the result of Chinese biowarfare. But that
does not make it realistic.

 

[Phil Hobbs]

On 2020-03-13 13:23, David Brown wrote:

On 13/03/2020 16:51, Phil Hobbs wrote:
On 2020-03-13 11:05, George Herold wrote:
On Friday, March 13, 2020 at 10:24:51 AM UTC-4, Phil Hobbs
wrote:
On 2020-03-13 09:34, George Herold wrote:
On Thursday, March 12, 2020 at 10:17:54 PM UTC-4, Winfield
Hill wrote:
Today I got emails from the CEOs of three companies about
their actions to protect us against Covid-19. Walmart said
their stores are cleaned daily, with sanitizing solutions.
Subway said they're cleaning most-touched surfaces once per
hour. A local pub- restaurant, Tavern in the Square, uses
disinfectant wipes to clean and sanitize all tables,
phones, POS- screens, check presenters, booths, chairs and
menus in between guest's seatings. Plus five other items.


-- Thanks, - Win

Sam Harris had a nice talk with Amesh Adalji.

https://samharris.org/podcast/

Where he says that hand stuff is fine, but that the virus is
mostly spread by water droplets we breath out... say it don't
spray it... with a range of a few meters. Which I guess,
then face masks would help you from not spreading it... by
stopping some of your spray.

He also predicts that in ~ 1 year 30-50% of the US will have
had the virus. And we should be preparing for the medical
overload.

George H.


IIRC about ten years ago it was discovered that all endemic
'flu bugs are descended from the 1918 'flu.

Hmm I have no idea. I'm guessing all the infectious disease
books on amazon are 'sold out' along with the hand sanitizers.
:^)

The experts mostly talk about mutations from some animal virus.

The fact that the Wuhan market is only a block away from the Level
4 biocontainment facility strongly suggests that it came from
there. China's a big place--what are the odds of that being an
accident? Especially since the first dozen or so patients hadn't
ever been to that market?


Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by
stupidity.

I'm not attributing it to malice. When I say "what are the odds of that
being an accident", I'm talking about the _spatial_ coincidence, not the
apparent fact of (accidental) release. There are an awful lot of city
blocks in Wuhan, and a lot more blocks in other cities in China where
all sorts of unsanitary things happen, just like Wuhan.

The Chinese biotech folk at not infallible, but they are not idiots
- they take great precautions in dealing with pathogens, just like
in any other country.

Except that in other countries you don't put Level 4 labs in the middle
of fantastically crowded cities. _That_ is certainly stupid. And
precautions sometimes fail--e.g. the Ebola outbreak in Reston, VA, where
the disease returned even after all the monkeys were destroyed and the
entire building fumigated with formaldehyde.

China is worse than other countries at this. A Nature article from two
years ago states, "Many staff from the Wuhan lab have been training at a
BSL-4 lab in Lyon, which some scientists find reassuring. And the
facility has already carried out a test-run using a low-risk virus."

"But worries surround the Chinese lab, too. The SARS virus has escaped
from high-level containment facilities in Beijing multiple times, notes
Richard Ebright, a molecular biologist at Rutgers University in
Piscataway, New Jersey. Tim Trevan, founder of CHROME Biosafety and
Biosecurity Consulting in Damascus, Maryland, says that an open culture
is important to keeping BSL-4 labs safe, and he questions how easy this
will be in China, where society emphasizes hierarchy. 'Diversity of
viewpoint, flat structures where everyone feels free to speak up, and
openness of information are important,' he says."

<https://www.nature.com/news/inside-the-chinese-lab-poised-to-study-world-s-most-dangerous-pathogens-1.21487>

Their live animal markets, on the other hand, are swarming with all
sorts of creatures captured illegally by smugglers from all sorts of
places, with no concept of hygiene or infection safety.

But the first dozen or so patients had no connection with the market.
Epidemiology 101, first semester.

There are no guarantees here, but without new incriminating evidence,
the odds are orders of magnitude on side of it having jumped from an
animal host to a human at the live food market in Wuhan.

How many orders, and how did you calculate that?

The ignorant, paranoid, xenophobic and Trumpists of the world would
be happier to believe it is the result of Chinese biowarfare. But
that does not make it realistic.

Pure ad hominem. You've got nothing, so you rag on people you despise.

Cheers

Phil Hobbs


--
Dr Philip C D Hobbs
Principal Consultant
ElectroOptical Innovations LLC / Hobbs ElectroOptics
Optics, Electro-optics, Photonics, Analog Electronics
Briarcliff Manor NY 10510

http://electrooptical.net
http://hobbs-eo.com

 

On Friday, March 13, 2020 at 1:23:49 PM UTC-4, David Brown wrote:

On 13/03/2020 16:51, Phil Hobbs wrote:
On 2020-03-13 11:05, George Herold wrote:
On Friday, March 13, 2020 at 10:24:51 AM UTC-4, Phil Hobbs wrote:
On 2020-03-13 09:34, George Herold wrote:
On Thursday, March 12, 2020 at 10:17:54 PM UTC-4, Winfield Hill wrote:
Today I got emails from the CEOs of three companies
   about their actions to protect us against Covid-19.
   Walmart said their stores are cleaned daily, with
   sanitizing solutions.  Subway said they're cleaning
   most-touched surfaces once per hour.  A local pub-
   restaurant, Tavern in the Square, uses disinfectant
   wipes to clean and sanitize all tables, phones, POS-
   screens, check presenters, booths, chairs and menus
   in between guest's seatings.  Plus five other items.


-- 
   Thanks,
      - Win

Sam Harris had a nice talk with Amesh Adalji.

https://samharris.org/podcast/

Where he says that hand stuff is fine, but that the virus is mostly
spread by water droplets we breath out... say it don't spray it...
with a range of a few meters.  Which I guess, then face masks would
help
you from not spreading it... by stopping some of your spray.

He also predicts that in ~ 1 year 30-50% of the US will have had the
virus.  And we should be preparing for the medical overload.

George H.


IIRC about ten years ago it was discovered that all endemic 'flu bugs
are descended from the 1918 'flu.

Hmm I have no idea.  I'm guessing all the infectious disease books
on amazon are 'sold out' along with the hand sanitizers.  :^)

The experts mostly talk about mutations from some animal virus.

The fact that the Wuhan market is only a block away from the Level 4
biocontainment facility strongly suggests that it came from there.
China's a big place--what are the odds of that being an accident?
Especially since the first dozen or so patients hadn't ever been to that
market?


Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by
stupidity. The Chinese biotech folk at not infallible, but they are not
idiots - they take great precautions in dealing with pathogens, just
like in any other country. Their live animal markets, on the other
hand, are swarming with all sorts of creatures captured illegally by
smugglers from all sorts of places, with no concept of hygiene or
infection safety.

There are no guarantees here, but without new incriminating evidence,
the odds are orders of magnitude on side of it having jumped from an
animal host to a human at the live food market in Wuhan.

The ignorant, paranoid, xenophobic and Trumpists of the world would be
happier to believe it is the result of Chinese biowarfare. But that
does not make it realistic.

Original story was promulgated by competing labs in China. They have no credibility as it is, just by being Chinese, then add a motive and you have total bs.

 

[Rick C]

On Friday, March 13, 2020 at 5:47:00 AM UTC-4, Tom Gardner wrote:

On 13/03/20 02:16, Winfield Hill wrote:
Today I got emails from the CEOs of three companies
about their actions to protect us against Covid-19.
Walmart said their stores are cleaned daily, with
sanitizing solutions. Subway said they're cleaning
most-touched surfaces once per hour. A local pub-
restaurant, Tavern in the Square, uses disinfectant
wipes to clean and sanitize all tables, phones, POS-
screens, check presenters, booths, chairs and menus
in between guest's seatings. Plus five other items.

The most such measures can do is *delay* the spread of
infection; they are unlikely to *reduce* it.

I'm not sure you understand the nature of this disease. There is a number that represents how many people are infected from a single infected person. Actions like these reduce the rate of infection. If we can get that rate of infection below 1, the disease will die out as it is in China. 80,000 total cases, 22 new cases in the last day.

Even spraying/wiping is unlikely to be very helpful.
E.g. consider opening the door on the way to the WC, then
thoroughly cleaning your hands, then opening the door
again on the way out; oops. I believe hospital staff
are trained to not touch the door on the way out,
either by it being held open by someone on the way
in or by using a towel to open the door and dispose
of that towel.

Lockdowns will, to some extent, prevent the next
person catching the disease. But they have to come
out of lockdown sometime, and they will catch it
then.

That is a fallacy.

The benefit of delaying the spread is
(1) to delay infection until summer when it *might*
be less contagious
(2) to reduce the peak demand on health services,
thus allowing them to treat a higher proportion of cases

Or to reduce the infection rate so the disease dies out rather than spreading to everyone.

Your idea seems to be it is inevitable that everyone in the world will be infected, which is not true. Most people don't get the flu each year even though only a relatively small percentage are vaccinated.

The best visualisation of the latter I've seen is
https://flowingdata.com/2020/03/09/flatten-the-coronavirus-curve/

The curve is flawed in that it seems to show the same number of infected no matter what.

The best estimates are that 60%-70% of people will
get it sooner or later, and not much will change
that.

If catching the virus is inevitable, why only 60-70%? Why not everyone???

One positive effect in the UK is that "bed blocking"
will be reduced. Bed blockers are those that are
well enough to be discharged from hospital, but have
to wait there because the help/care at home is
insufficient.

I am expecting my 98yo mother to catch it sometime.
She will, rightly, not be a priority, and it will
kill her. Her grandmother survived the 1919 flu
and significantly influenced my mother. She died in
her mid 90s, having been born in the mid 30s.
1830s, that is. 100 years is not a long time

Why is it right that your mother's health "not be a priority"??? I guess I shouldn't ask that. It's not likely I'll appreciate the answer.

--

Rick C.

+- Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
+- Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

 

On Friday, March 13, 2020 at 1:52:55 PM UTC-4, Phil Hobbs wrote:

On 2020-03-13 13:23, David Brown wrote:
On 13/03/2020 16:51, Phil Hobbs wrote:
On 2020-03-13 11:05, George Herold wrote:
On Friday, March 13, 2020 at 10:24:51 AM UTC-4, Phil Hobbs
wrote:
On 2020-03-13 09:34, George Herold wrote:
On Thursday, March 12, 2020 at 10:17:54 PM UTC-4, Winfield
Hill wrote:
Today I got emails from the CEOs of three companies about
their actions to protect us against Covid-19. Walmart said
their stores are cleaned daily, with sanitizing solutions.
Subway said they're cleaning most-touched surfaces once per
hour. A local pub- restaurant, Tavern in the Square, uses
disinfectant wipes to clean and sanitize all tables,
phones, POS- screens, check presenters, booths, chairs and
menus in between guest's seatings. Plus five other items.


-- Thanks, - Win

Sam Harris had a nice talk with Amesh Adalji.

https://samharris.org/podcast/

Where he says that hand stuff is fine, but that the virus is
mostly spread by water droplets we breath out... say it don't
spray it... with a range of a few meters. Which I guess,
then face masks would help you from not spreading it... by
stopping some of your spray.

He also predicts that in ~ 1 year 30-50% of the US will have
had the virus. And we should be preparing for the medical
overload.

George H.


IIRC about ten years ago it was discovered that all endemic
'flu bugs are descended from the 1918 'flu.

Hmm I have no idea. I'm guessing all the infectious disease
books on amazon are 'sold out' along with the hand sanitizers.
:^)

The experts mostly talk about mutations from some animal virus.

The fact that the Wuhan market is only a block away from the Level
4 biocontainment facility strongly suggests that it came from
there. China's a big place--what are the odds of that being an
accident? Especially since the first dozen or so patients hadn't
ever been to that market?


Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by
stupidity.

I'm not attributing it to malice. When I say "what are the odds of that
being an accident", I'm talking about the _spatial_ coincidence, not the
apparent fact of (accidental) release. There are an awful lot of city
blocks in Wuhan, and a lot more blocks in other cities in China where
all sorts of unsanitary things happen, just like Wuhan.

The Chinese biotech folk at not infallible, but they are not idiots
- they take great precautions in dealing with pathogens, just like
in any other country.

Except that in other countries you don't put Level 4 labs in the middle
of fantastically crowded cities. _That_ is certainly stupid. And
precautions sometimes fail--e.g. the Ebola outbreak in Reston, VA, where
the disease returned even after all the monkeys were destroyed and the
entire building fumigated with formaldehyde.

China is worse than other countries at this. A Nature article from two
years ago states, "Many staff from the Wuhan lab have been training at a
BSL-4 lab in Lyon, which some scientists find reassuring. And the
facility has already carried out a test-run using a low-risk virus."

"But worries surround the Chinese lab, too. The SARS virus has escaped
from high-level containment facilities in Beijing multiple times, notes
Richard Ebright, a molecular biologist at Rutgers University in
Piscataway, New Jersey. Tim Trevan, founder of CHROME Biosafety and
Biosecurity Consulting in Damascus, Maryland, says that an open culture
is important to keeping BSL-4 labs safe, and he questions how easy this
will be in China, where society emphasizes hierarchy. 'Diversity of
viewpoint, flat structures where everyone feels free to speak up, and
openness of information are important,' he says."

https://www.nature.com/news/inside-the-chinese-lab-poised-to-study-world-s-most-dangerous-pathogens-1.21487

Their live animal markets, on the other hand, are swarming with all
sorts of creatures captured illegally by smugglers from all sorts of
places, with no concept of hygiene or infection safety.

But the first dozen or so patients had no connection with the market.
Epidemiology 101, first semester.

There are no guarantees here, but without new incriminating evidence,
the odds are orders of magnitude on side of it having jumped from an
animal host to a human at the live food market in Wuhan.

How many orders, and how did you calculate that?

The ignorant, paranoid, xenophobic and Trumpists of the world would
be happier to believe it is the result of Chinese biowarfare. But
that does not make it realistic.

Pure ad hominem. You've got nothing, so you rag on people you despise.

Cheers

Phil Hobbs

COVID-19 is not SARS. You have nothing.

--
Dr Philip C D Hobbs
Principal Consultant
ElectroOptical Innovations LLC / Hobbs ElectroOptics
Optics, Electro-optics, Photonics, Analog Electronics
Briarcliff Manor NY 10510

http://electrooptical.net
http://hobbs-eo.com

 

[Rick C]

On Friday, March 13, 2020 at 8:58:19 AM UTC-4, dca...@krl.org wrote:

On Friday, March 13, 2020 at 12:41:27 AM UTC-4, Robert Baer wrote:



...and if you do, you are making antibodies for future protection.

There was a blurb on TV about taking blood from people who have survived having the virus and making plasma. Then using the plasma to introduce antibodies in people who have not had the virus.

_It may be approved in as little as 4 weeks ( or not approved ).

Dan

If it was that simple, why wouldn't they do that for every disease? Antibodies are what your body makes to fight the infection. Vaccines are composed of at least parts of the infectious agent containing the specific molecules which act as antigens promoting YOUR production of antibodies. I've never heard anyone indicate providing antibodies will stimulate the production of antibodies. The few antibodies in the blood you receive would not be enough to make much difference.

Perhaps the idea is there are still a few antigens in the blood of a previously infected person and these antigens stimulate your immune response.

--

Rick C.

++ Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
++ Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

 

[Rick C]

On Friday, March 13, 2020 at 9:30:07 AM UTC-4, Winfield Hill wrote:

Mikko OH2HVJ wrote...

... proper washing is a surprisingly long and boring effort.
And the next thing our teenagers do after washing is to get
the phone back to same hands..

That brings up the issue of decontaminating our phones.

Is that a Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy joke?

--

Rick C.

--- Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
--- Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

 

[Rick C]

On Friday, March 13, 2020 at 9:34:26 AM UTC-4, George Herold wrote:

On Thursday, March 12, 2020 at 10:17:54 PM UTC-4, Winfield Hill wrote:
Today I got emails from the CEOs of three companies
about their actions to protect us against Covid-19.
Walmart said their stores are cleaned daily, with
sanitizing solutions. Subway said they're cleaning
most-touched surfaces once per hour. A local pub-
restaurant, Tavern in the Square, uses disinfectant
wipes to clean and sanitize all tables, phones, POS-
screens, check presenters, booths, chairs and menus
in between guest's seatings. Plus five other items.


--
Thanks,
- Win

Sam Harris had a nice talk with Amesh Adalji.

https://samharris.org/podcast/

Where he says that hand stuff is fine, but that the virus is mostly
spread by water droplets we breath out... say it don't spray it...
with a range of a few meters. Which I guess, then face masks would help
you from not spreading it... by stopping some of your spray.

He also predicts that in ~ 1 year 30-50% of the US will have had the
virus. And we should be preparing for the medical overload.

George H.

No transcript? I hate listing to people when reading would be so much faster.

--

Rick C.

--+ Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
--+ Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

 

[John Robertson]

On 2020/03/13 12:26 a.m., Rick C wrote:

On Friday, March 13, 2020 at 2:56:59 AM UTC-4, Mikko OH2HVJ wrote:
Rick C <gnuarm.deletethisbit@gmail.com> writes:

Alcohol is also not particularly useful unless used appropriately
which most people, including hospital workers, fail to do. It is used
in places where frequent hand cleaning is required because it is less
drying or irritating to skin than soap. But for most of us, soap and
water are much more effective at killing/removing all germs including
both bacteria and viruses. In fact, soap and water are particularly
good at killing viruses by dissolving the lipid layers that hold the
virus together, essentially dissolving them into particles.

You're right - soap+water is a good combination. I was quite surprised
when in a biomedical lab they told they use soap to dissolve lipids to
extract RNA. The 'soap' was apparently not something you can get from
the closest supermarket, but also not too far from common cleaning agent.

I have read nothing about triclosan use resulting in resistant strains
of bacteria. If it did, they would only be resistant to triclosan
whichwould not be a great loss.

Unfortunately triclosan resistance is sometimes related to antiobiotic resistance:
https://www.health.harvard.edu/blog/are-antibacterial-products-with-triclosan-fueling-bacterial-resistance-2019080617473

Learn something every day. I would have never expected this. "Based on these data, we hypothesized that triclosan exposure may inadvertently drive bacteria into a state in which they are able to tolerate normally lethal concentrations of antibiotics."

Another point they made is that people seldom do more than a cursory wash. Many public bathrooms have automatic soap dispensers that don't provide enough soap even after three applications. It takes some serious washing to do enough damage to the pathogens on your hands. I believe a doctor told me he scrubbed for 15 minutes before surgery. That is the sort of thing they actually do studies on to see how long is needed before the benefit ends. So 10 seconds under a cold water tap isn't going to do much.

As to the people who don't wash at all... I was working at a largish company and realized that while I was washing my hands someone had come into the bathroom, used the urinal and walked out... without washing of course. I knew the guy and realized I would not be shaking his hand. It left a bit of a permanent mark on me and now I don't want to touch the door handle on leaving the wash room. I use the paper towel to open the door. If they have no paper towels, I use toilet paper. Yeah, it's a phobia, but it does have some logic behind it. I'm not the only one either. Many people use the paper towel to open the door and then throw it on the floor behind the door if the trash can is not close by.

At least I'm already trained for the Corona virus.

Using a paper towel to open the bathroom door is common here in Canadian
restaurants, theatres, etc. - any public places and many businesses.
They will have a garbage pail right beside the exit door for receiving
the used paper.

You are not phobic, it is simply good practice in washrooms!

Our municipal, provincial and federal government have been posting
continuous updates as this spread, but then - like most countries - we
have 3 levels of government disaster planning organizations that weren't
kneecapped...

John