New test for Coronavirus

[John Larkin]

On Wed, 25 Mar 2020 14:35:27 -0400, Phil Hobbs
<pcdhSpamMeSenseless@electrooptical.net> wrote:

On 2020-03-25 13:23, John Larkin wrote:
On Mon, 23 Mar 2020 17:08:24 -0400, Phil Hobbs
pcdhSpamMeSenseless@electrooptical.net> wrote:

On 2020-03-22 13:26, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Sat, 21 Mar 2020 22:51:29 -0700 (PDT), Michael Terrell
terrell.michael.a@gmail.com> wrote:

The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) issued emergency
authorization Saturday for a novel coronavirus (COVID-19) test
kit made by Cepheid Inc. that can yield results in a matter of
hours instead of days.

The new tool is called the “Cepheid Xpert Xpress SARS-CoV-2
test” and will be made available to the public by the end of
the month.

https://conservativefighters.org/news/new-coronavirus-test-can-have-results-within-hours-see-how-it-works/




There is also an antibody test coming soon, so we can see who has or
had the infection.

Looking forward to that one. I suspect Mo and I both caught it a
couple of weeks ago from a world traveller, but of course we won't
stop hiding under the bed until that's confirmed.

Cheers

Phil Hobbs

My Mo and I have something mild too. It could be C9, but
statistically it's probably something else.


Our world traveller was staying with us, and had no respiratory issues,
but did have a weird symptom that has turned out to be pretty diagnostic
for Wu 'flu: total loss of sensations of taste and smell for several
days. We didn't have that, but did have some bug sniffing around us for
a few days there.

This very second, I'm eating a filet mignon sandwich on a brioche bun.
It tastes mighty good.

OTOH there's a CDC study out that shows that only 10% or so of family
members quarantined with people with confirmed cases come down with it.

Oh. I was ridiculed here for suggesting 20%.

There's another study that claims that 50% of the UK population may have
already caught it. If so, most of whom must have gotten over it
quickly, because the percentage testing positive for the virus is much
less than that.

Suppose this is agressively virulent like measles (R0 about 15) among
suceptable people, but the symptoms are usually mild or none. Suppose
most people, especially kids, had already had it by the time the test
kits ramped up.

Cheers

Phil Hobbs
--

John Larkin Highland Technology, Inc
picosecond timing precision measurement

jlarkin att highlandtechnology dott com
http://www.highlandtechnology.com

 

[Rick C]

On Wednesday, March 25, 2020 at 1:23:58 PM UTC-4, John Larkin wrote:

On Mon, 23 Mar 2020 17:08:24 -0400, Phil Hobbs
pcdhSpamMeSenseless@electrooptical.net> wrote:

On 2020-03-22 13:26, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Sat, 21 Mar 2020 22:51:29 -0700 (PDT), Michael Terrell
terrell.michael.a@gmail.com> wrote:

The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) issued emergency
authorization Saturday for a novel coronavirus (COVID-19) test kit
made by Cepheid Inc. that can yield results in a matter of hours
instead of days.

The new tool is called the “Cepheid Xpert Xpress SARS-CoV-2 test”
and will be made available to the public by the end of the month.

https://conservativefighters.org/news/new-coronavirus-test-can-have-results-within-hours-see-how-it-works/


There is also an antibody test coming soon, so we can see who has or
had the infection.

Looking forward to that one. I suspect Mo and I both caught it a couple
of weeks ago from a world traveller, but of course we won't stop hiding
under the bed until that's confirmed.

Cheers

Phil Hobbs

My Mo and I have something mild too. It could be C9, but statistically
it's probably something else.

I don't know what C9 is, but I'd be happy to get you some C-4.

--

Rick C.

+- Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
+- Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

 

[Rick C]

On Wednesday, March 25, 2020 at 2:35:42 PM UTC-4, Phil Hobbs wrote:

There's another study that claims that 50% of the UK population may have
already caught it. If so, most of whom must have gotten over it
quickly, because the percentage testing positive for the virus is much
less than that.

<Palm slaps forehead> Yes, and what might be the proof the study used to determine 50% of the population had this bug? ESP? Or are you displaying a dry, British wit?

--

Rick C.

++ Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
++ Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

 

[Phil Hobbs]

On 2020-03-25 19:45, Rick C wrote:

On Wednesday, March 25, 2020 at 2:35:42 PM UTC-4, Phil Hobbs wrote:

There's another study that claims that 50% of the UK population may have
already caught it. If so, most of whom must have gotten over it
quickly, because the percentage testing positive for the virus is much
less than that.

Palm slaps forehead> Yes, and what might be the proof the study used to determine 50% of the population had this bug? ESP? Or are you displaying a dry, British wit?

You really shouldn't be touching your face like that.

The study is from the University of Oxford, and highlights the need for
antibody studies ASAP.

https://www.dropbox.com/s/oxmu2rwsnhi9j9c/Draft-COVID-19-Model%20(13).pdf?dl=1

Cheers

Phil Hobbs

--
Dr Philip C D Hobbs
Principal Consultant
ElectroOptical Innovations LLC / Hobbs ElectroOptics
Optics, Electro-optics, Photonics, Analog Electronics
Briarcliff Manor NY 10510

http://electrooptical.net
http://hobbs-eo.com

 

[Bill Sloman]

On Thursday, March 26, 2020 at 6:34:24 AM UTC+11, John Larkin wrote:

On Wed, 25 Mar 2020 14:35:27 -0400, Phil Hobbs
pcdhSpamMeSenseless@electrooptical.net> wrote:

On 2020-03-25 13:23, John Larkin wrote:
On Mon, 23 Mar 2020 17:08:24 -0400, Phil Hobbs
pcdhSpamMeSenseless@electrooptical.net> wrote:

On 2020-03-22 13:26, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Sat, 21 Mar 2020 22:51:29 -0700 (PDT), Michael Terrell
terrell.michael.a@gmail.com> wrote:

The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) issued emergency
authorization Saturday for a novel coronavirus (COVID-19) test
kit made by Cepheid Inc. that can yield results in a matter of
hours instead of days.

The new tool is called the “Cepheid Xpert Xpress SARS-CoV-2
test” and will be made available to the public by the end of
the month.

https://conservativefighters.org/news/new-coronavirus-test-can-have-results-within-hours-see-how-it-works/




There is also an antibody test coming soon, so we can see who has or
had the infection.

Looking forward to that one. I suspect Mo and I both caught it a
couple of weeks ago from a world traveller, but of course we won't
stop hiding under the bed until that's confirmed.

Cheers

Phil Hobbs

My Mo and I have something mild too. It could be C9, but
statistically it's probably something else.


Our world traveller was staying with us, and had no respiratory issues,
but did have a weird symptom that has turned out to be pretty diagnostic
for Wu 'flu: total loss of sensations of taste and smell for several
days. We didn't have that, but did have some bug sniffing around us for
a few days there.

This very second, I'm eating a filet mignon sandwich on a brioche bun.
It tastes mighty good.

OTOH there's a CDC study out that shows that only 10% or so of family
members quarantined with people with confirmed cases come down with it.

Oh. I was ridiculed here for suggesting 20%.

Deservedly. Family member who are quarantined with the virus do keep their distance from the rest of the family.

You claim was that only 20% of the population are susceptible (note the spelling) which is a very different claim. Confusing the claims in that way isn't exactly clever.

There's another study that claims that 50% of the UK population may have
already caught it. If so, most of whom must have gotten over it
quickly, because the percentage testing positive for the virus is much
less than that.

Suppose this is aggressively virulent like measles (R0 about 15) among
susceptible people, but the symptoms are usually mild or none.

R0 seems to be something like 2.5 to 3 in popuations which aren't practising social distancing. Imagining that it is as infectious as measles isn't a useful exercise

Suppose most people, especially kids, had already had it by the time the test
kits ramped up.

Then they'd have antibodies to the Covid-19 virus. which we should be able to test for.

I've yet to see any evidence suggesting that lots of kids have had it. Speculative papers can suggest anything they like, but they've got to make predictions that get reflected in real numbers before they can get taken seriously.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

 

[whit3rd]

On Wednesday, March 25, 2020 at 12:34:24 PM UTC-7, John Larkin wrote:

On Wed, 25 Mar 2020 14:35:27 -0400, Phil Hobbs
pcdhSpamMeSenseless@electrooptical.net> wrote:

OTOH there's a CDC study out that shows that only 10% or so of family
members quarantined with people with confirmed cases come down with it.

Oh. I was ridiculed here for suggesting 20%.

Not the same situation; folk in quarantine KNOW there's a problem, and take
effective precautions. Your suggestion was that only 20% of folk are capable of catching the bug,
which is entirely different.

 

whit3rd <whit3rd@gmail.com> wrote in
news:201f47b4-c17b-4a36-98a4-9c0d76167c5c@googlegroups.com:

On Wednesday, March 25, 2020 at 12:34:24 PM UTC-7, John Larkin
wrote:
On Wed, 25 Mar 2020 14:35:27 -0400, Phil Hobbs
pcdhSpamMeSenseless@electrooptical.net> wrote:

OTOH there's a CDC study out that shows that only 10% or so of
family members quarantined with people with confirmed cases come
down with it.

Oh. I was ridiculed here for suggesting 20%.

Not the same situation; folk in quarantine KNOW there's a problem,
and take effective precautions. Your suggestion was that only
20% of folk are capable of catching the bug, which is entirely
different.

After we spent so long getting the life expectancy number up into
the seventies. Now you'll get told that after 50 you are susceptible
to being TrumpCulled.

 

[Rick C]

On Wednesday, March 25, 2020 at 8:55:40 PM UTC-4, Phil Hobbs wrote:

On 2020-03-25 19:45, Rick C wrote:
On Wednesday, March 25, 2020 at 2:35:42 PM UTC-4, Phil Hobbs wrote:

There's another study that claims that 50% of the UK population may have
already caught it. If so, most of whom must have gotten over it
quickly, because the percentage testing positive for the virus is much
less than that.

Palm slaps forehead> Yes, and what might be the proof the study used to determine 50% of the population had this bug? ESP? Or are you displaying a dry, British wit?

You really shouldn't be touching your face like that.

The study is from the University of Oxford, and highlights the need for
antibody studies ASAP.

https://www.dropbox.com/s/oxmu2rwsnhi9j9c/Draft-COVID-19-Model%20(13).pdf?dl=1

Perhaps you can explain exactly what is meant by "proportion of population at risk of severe disease"?

They talk about the ρ value "decreased to plausible values". What are "plausible values"?

If antibody tests are used or not used, what will change with this disease?

--

Rick C.

--- Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
--- Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

 

[Bill Sloman]

On Thursday, March 26, 2020 at 1:42:39 PM UTC+11, Rick C wrote:

On Wednesday, March 25, 2020 at 8:55:40 PM UTC-4, Phil Hobbs wrote:
On 2020-03-25 19:45, Rick C wrote:
On Wednesday, March 25, 2020 at 2:35:42 PM UTC-4, Phil Hobbs wrote:

There's another study that claims that 50% of the UK population may have
already caught it. If so, most of whom must have gotten over it
quickly, because the percentage testing positive for the virus is much
less than that.

Palm slaps forehead> Yes, and what might be the proof the study used to determine 50% of the population had this bug? ESP? Or are you displaying a dry, British wit?

You really shouldn't be touching your face like that.

The study is from the University of Oxford, and highlights the need for
antibody studies ASAP.

https://www.dropbox.com/s/oxmu2rwsnhi9j9c/Draft-COVID-19-Model%20(13).pdf?dl=1

Perhaps you can explain exactly what is meant by "proportion of population at risk of severe disease"?

They talk about the ρ value "decreased to plausible values". What are "plausible values"?

If antibody tests are used or not used, what will change with this disease?

Our reaction to it, and our plans for minimisng the number of people killed by it. The more you know about what is going, the more effective are your actions to change the situation.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

 

[Bill Sloman]

On Thursday, March 26, 2020 at 3:51:21 PM UTC+11, Rick C wrote:

On Thursday, March 26, 2020 at 12:21:59 AM UTC-4, Bill Sloman wrote:
On Thursday, March 26, 2020 at 1:42:39 PM UTC+11, Rick C wrote:
On Wednesday, March 25, 2020 at 8:55:40 PM UTC-4, Phil Hobbs wrote:
On 2020-03-25 19:45, Rick C wrote:
On Wednesday, March 25, 2020 at 2:35:42 PM UTC-4, Phil Hobbs wrote:

There's another study that claims that 50% of the UK population may have
already caught it. If so, most of whom must have gotten over it
quickly, because the percentage testing positive for the virus is much
less than that.

Palm slaps forehead> Yes, and what might be the proof the study used to determine 50% of the population had this bug? ESP? Or are you displaying a dry, British wit?

You really shouldn't be touching your face like that.

The study is from the University of Oxford, and highlights the need for
antibody studies ASAP.

https://www.dropbox.com/s/oxmu2rwsnhi9j9c/Draft-COVID-19-Model%20(13).pdf?dl=1

Perhaps you can explain exactly what is meant by "proportion of population at risk of severe disease"?

They talk about the ρ value "decreased to plausible values". What are "plausible values"?

If antibody tests are used or not used, what will change with this disease?

Our reaction to it, and our plans for minimisng the number of people killed by it. The more you know about what is going, the more effective are your actions to change the situation.

So explain to me the possible results of the tests and what the government will do in response.

The possible results of the tests range from indicating that very few people who caught Covid-19 didn't know about it, to support for the UK study's wildest hypothesis which was the half the UK population had already had the disease and recovered from it without noticing.

It isn't going to indicate anything higher, because if it did the disease wouldn't be able to sustain the epidemic spread we are now seeing in the UK.

About the only thing that the government might do if there are lot of recovered patients around would be their harvest their antibodies and use them to treat people who are having trouble coping with the infection.

It doesn't seem likely that it would modify the course of the current lock-downs, but it might affect the choices made about local lock-downs around new centres of infection.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

 

[Rick C]

On Thursday, March 26, 2020 at 12:21:59 AM UTC-4, Bill Sloman wrote:

On Thursday, March 26, 2020 at 1:42:39 PM UTC+11, Rick C wrote:
On Wednesday, March 25, 2020 at 8:55:40 PM UTC-4, Phil Hobbs wrote:
On 2020-03-25 19:45, Rick C wrote:
On Wednesday, March 25, 2020 at 2:35:42 PM UTC-4, Phil Hobbs wrote:

There's another study that claims that 50% of the UK population may have
already caught it. If so, most of whom must have gotten over it
quickly, because the percentage testing positive for the virus is much
less than that.

Palm slaps forehead> Yes, and what might be the proof the study used to determine 50% of the population had this bug? ESP? Or are you displaying a dry, British wit?

You really shouldn't be touching your face like that.

The study is from the University of Oxford, and highlights the need for
antibody studies ASAP.

https://www.dropbox.com/s/oxmu2rwsnhi9j9c/Draft-COVID-19-Model%20(13)..pdf?dl=1

Perhaps you can explain exactly what is meant by "proportion of population at risk of severe disease"?

They talk about the ρ value "decreased to plausible values". What are "plausible values"?

If antibody tests are used or not used, what will change with this disease?

Our reaction to it, and our plans for minimisng the number of people killed by it. The more you know about what is going, the more effective are your actions to change the situation.

So explain to me the possible results of the tests and what the government will do in response.

--

Rick C.

--+ Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
--+ Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

 

[Rick C]

On Thursday, March 26, 2020 at 1:41:58 AM UTC-4, Bill Sloman wrote:

On Thursday, March 26, 2020 at 3:51:21 PM UTC+11, Rick C wrote:
On Thursday, March 26, 2020 at 12:21:59 AM UTC-4, Bill Sloman wrote:
On Thursday, March 26, 2020 at 1:42:39 PM UTC+11, Rick C wrote:
On Wednesday, March 25, 2020 at 8:55:40 PM UTC-4, Phil Hobbs wrote:
On 2020-03-25 19:45, Rick C wrote:
On Wednesday, March 25, 2020 at 2:35:42 PM UTC-4, Phil Hobbs wrote:

There's another study that claims that 50% of the UK population may have
already caught it. If so, most of whom must have gotten over it
quickly, because the percentage testing positive for the virus is much
less than that.

Palm slaps forehead> Yes, and what might be the proof the study used to determine 50% of the population had this bug? ESP? Or are you displaying a dry, British wit?

You really shouldn't be touching your face like that.

The study is from the University of Oxford, and highlights the need for
antibody studies ASAP.

https://www.dropbox.com/s/oxmu2rwsnhi9j9c/Draft-COVID-19-Model%20(13).pdf?dl=1

Perhaps you can explain exactly what is meant by "proportion of population at risk of severe disease"?

They talk about the ρ value "decreased to plausible values". What are "plausible values"?

If antibody tests are used or not used, what will change with this disease?

Our reaction to it, and our plans for minimisng the number of people killed by it. The more you know about what is going, the more effective are your actions to change the situation.

So explain to me the possible results of the tests and what the government will do in response.

The possible results of the tests range from indicating that very few people who caught Covid-19 didn't know about it, to support for the UK study's wildest hypothesis which was the half the UK population had already had the disease and recovered from it without noticing.

It isn't going to indicate anything higher, because if it did the disease wouldn't be able to sustain the epidemic spread we are now seeing in the UK.

About the only thing that the government might do if there are lot of recovered patients around would be their harvest their antibodies and use them to treat people who are having trouble coping with the infection.

Since when have we been treating people by transfusing them with antibodies??? Heck, much of the time we can't even get people do donate enough blood or platelets. Trying to harvest antibodies to fight this disease would be harder than just coming up with a vaccine.


> It doesn't seem likely that it would modify the course of the current lock-downs, but it might affect the choices made about local lock-downs around new centres of infection.

How?

--

Rick C.

-+- Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
-+- Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

 

[Phil Hobbs]

On 2020-03-25 22:42, Rick C wrote:

On Wednesday, March 25, 2020 at 8:55:40 PM UTC-4, Phil Hobbs wrote:
On 2020-03-25 19:45, Rick C wrote:
On Wednesday, March 25, 2020 at 2:35:42 PM UTC-4, Phil Hobbs wrote:

There's another study that claims that 50% of the UK population may have
already caught it. If so, most of whom must have gotten over it
quickly, because the percentage testing positive for the virus is much
less than that.

Palm slaps forehead> Yes, and what might be the proof the study used to determine 50% of the population had this bug? ESP? Or are you displaying a dry, British wit?

You really shouldn't be touching your face like that.

The study is from the University of Oxford, and highlights the need for
antibody studies ASAP.

https://www.dropbox.com/s/oxmu2rwsnhi9j9c/Draft-COVID-19-Model%20(13).pdf?dl=1

Perhaps you can explain exactly what is meant by "proportion of population at risk of severe disease"?

They talk about the ρ value "decreased to plausible values". What are "plausible values"?

If antibody tests are used or not used, what will change with this disease?

If you can't understand the paper, I can't help that. Soooorrry.

Cheers

Phil Hobbs

--
Dr Philip C D Hobbs
Principal Consultant
ElectroOptical Innovations LLC / Hobbs ElectroOptics
Optics, Electro-optics, Photonics, Analog Electronics
Briarcliff Manor NY 10510

http://electrooptical.net
http://hobbs-eo.com

 

[Rick C]

On Thursday, March 26, 2020 at 2:36:43 AM UTC-4, Phil Hobbs wrote:

On 2020-03-25 22:42, Rick C wrote:
On Wednesday, March 25, 2020 at 8:55:40 PM UTC-4, Phil Hobbs wrote:
On 2020-03-25 19:45, Rick C wrote:
On Wednesday, March 25, 2020 at 2:35:42 PM UTC-4, Phil Hobbs wrote:

There's another study that claims that 50% of the UK population may have
already caught it. If so, most of whom must have gotten over it
quickly, because the percentage testing positive for the virus is much
less than that.

Palm slaps forehead> Yes, and what might be the proof the study used to determine 50% of the population had this bug? ESP? Or are you displaying a dry, British wit?

You really shouldn't be touching your face like that.

The study is from the University of Oxford, and highlights the need for
antibody studies ASAP.

https://www.dropbox.com/s/oxmu2rwsnhi9j9c/Draft-COVID-19-Model%20(13).pdf?dl=1

Perhaps you can explain exactly what is meant by "proportion of population at risk of severe disease"?

They talk about the ρ value "decreased to plausible values". What are "plausible values"?

If antibody tests are used or not used, what will change with this disease?


If you can't understand the paper, I can't help that. Soooorrry.

LOL! You don't even understand the question!

--

Rick C.

-++ Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
-++ Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

 

[Mikko OH2HVJ]

Phil Hobbs <pcdhSpamMeSenseless@electrooptical.net> writes:

The study is from the University of Oxford, and highlights the need
for antibody studies ASAP.

https://www.dropbox.com/s/oxmu2rwsnhi9j9c/Draft-COVID-19-Model%20(13).pdf?dl=1

Antibody testing is thus super important for the recovery of the society.

We need to get the recovered (and hopefully immune) people back to work
as soon as possible.

--
mikko

 

[Mikko OH2HVJ]

John Larkin <jlarkin@highland_atwork_technology.com> writes:

Suppose this is agressively virulent like measles (R0 about 15) among
suceptable people, but the symptoms are usually mild or none. Suppose
most people, especially kids, had already had it by the time the test
kits ramped up.

Nope - tracing the transmissions chains and testing exposed people has
shown R0 to be between 2 and 3.

In Finland initial R0 calculated from simple SEIR model fit and detected
cases went up to 4.7, but that was because most infections were
imported and the transmission chains were not fully tested.

With current limitations the estimate for R0 is somewhere between
1.4 - 1.8.


--
mikko

 

[Martin Brown]

On 25/03/2020 18:35, Phil Hobbs wrote:

On 2020-03-25 13:23, John Larkin wrote:
On Mon, 23 Mar 2020 17:08:24 -0400, Phil Hobbs
pcdhSpamMeSenseless@electrooptical.net> wrote:

On 2020-03-22 13:26, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Sat, 21 Mar 2020 22:51:29 -0700 (PDT), Michael Terrell
terrell.michael.a@gmail.com> wrote:

The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) issued emergency
authorization Saturday for a novel coronavirus (COVID-19) test
 kit made by Cepheid Inc. that can yield results in a matter of
 hours instead of days.

The new tool is called the “Cepheid Xpert Xpress SARS-CoV-2 test”
and will be made available to the public by the end of the month.

https://conservativefighters.org/news/new-coronavirus-test-can-have-results-within-hours-see-how-it-works/





There is also an antibody test coming soon, so we can see who has or
had the infection.

Looking forward to that one.  I suspect Mo and I both caught it a
couple of weeks ago from a world traveller, but of course we won't
 stop hiding under the bed until that's confirmed.

Cheers

Phil Hobbs

My Mo and I have something mild too. It could be C9, but statistically
it's probably something else.


Our world traveller was staying with us, and had no respiratory issues,
but did have a weird symptom that has turned out to be pretty diagnostic
for Wu 'flu: total loss of sensations of taste and smell for several
days.  We didn't have that, but did have some bug sniffing around us for
a few days there.

OTOH there's a CDC study out that shows that only 10% or so of family
members quarantined with people with confirmed cases come down with it.

I'm not sure that I trust CDC any more. Trump can censor what they say.

There's another study that claims that 50% of the UK population may have
already caught it.  If so, most of whom must have gotten over it
quickly, because the percentage testing positive for the virus is much
less than that.

That's some utterly bogus internet rumour. I doubt if we in UK are even
past 3% yet. It might be a bit higher locally in bad parts of London or
Birmingham. Until there is an antibody test it is pure guesswork.

They are predicting peak UK infection in 2 to 3 weeks time. That would
not be possible if 50% had already had it. For the moment we are still
seeing unmitigated exponential daily growth in the number of cases with
roughly the same 1.4x exponent. So long as the gradient continues to get
steeper we are very long way away from the 50% immune situation.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51768274

It will shift up first for last weekends "lets all get infected" party
insanity and then down when the lockdown incubation period is finally
reached. It remains to be seen what that number looks like and whether
or not UK hospitals have sufficient beds and ventilators to cope.

I only know of one unconfirmed corona virus infection amongst my wide
range of contacts so far. They had the symptoms and as someone used to
expeditions into serious deserts are not unaccustomed to privations.
(*) They were *NOT* tested because they didn't need hospitalisation.

They described the experience as a bit like being drunk (in the H2G2
sense). Think severe fever and the worst hangover you've ever had
lasting for 3 days followed by a period of breathless drowsiness and no
appetite or sense of taste. He is recovering OK now. Didn't lose his
sense of humour even when he was having quite a bad time of it either.

Sadly the virus has now claimed the life on one apparently healthy 21
year old in the UK. This coronavirus isn't just affecting the elderly.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-beds-bucks-herts-52041709

Trumps US policy looks like a deliberate and cynical attempt to cull the
poor, economically inactive and elderly section of the US population. It
will be interesting to see how such a laissez faire approach pans out.

--
Regards,
Martin Brown

 

On Thu, 26 Mar 2020 09:06:03 +0200, Mikko OH2HVJ
<mikko.syrjalahti@nospam.fi> wrote:

John Larkin <jlarkin@highland_atwork_technology.com> writes:

Suppose this is agressively virulent like measles (R0 about 15) among
suceptable people, but the symptoms are usually mild or none. Suppose
most people, especially kids, had already had it by the time the test
kits ramped up.

Nope - tracing the transmissions chains and testing exposed people has
shown R0 to be between 2 and 3.

In Finland initial R0 calculated from simple SEIR model fit and detected
cases went up to 4.7, but that was because most infections were
imported and the transmission chains were not fully tested.

With current limitations the estimate for R0 is somewhere between
1.4 - 1.8.

I said "among suceptable people."

Measles is still about 15 among suceptable people, but vaccination
reduces the pool of available victims. Except for anti-vac morons.



--

John Larkin Highland Technology, Inc

The cork popped merrily, and Lord Peter rose to his feet.
"Bunter", he said, "I give you a toast. The triumph of Instinct over Reason"

 

On Thu, 26 Mar 2020 09:10:19 +0200, Mikko OH2HVJ
<mikko.syrjalahti@nospam.fi> wrote:

Phil Hobbs <pcdhSpamMeSenseless@electrooptical.net> writes:

The study is from the University of Oxford, and highlights the need
for antibody studies ASAP.

https://www.dropbox.com/s/oxmu2rwsnhi9j9c/Draft-COVID-19-Model%20(13).pdf?dl=1

Antibody testing is thus super important for the recovery of the society.

We need to get the recovered (and hopefully immune) people back to work
as soon as possible.

Yes. And it would be great to have only immune people be the
intensive-care nurses and doctors. We would know who is immune with an
antibody test.



--

John Larkin Highland Technology, Inc

The cork popped merrily, and Lord Peter rose to his feet.
"Bunter", he said, "I give you a toast. The triumph of Instinct over Reason"

 

On Thu, 26 Mar 2020 02:36:38 -0400, Phil Hobbs
<pcdhSpamMeSenseless@electrooptical.net> wrote:

On 2020-03-25 22:42, Rick C wrote:
On Wednesday, March 25, 2020 at 8:55:40 PM UTC-4, Phil Hobbs wrote:
On 2020-03-25 19:45, Rick C wrote:
On Wednesday, March 25, 2020 at 2:35:42 PM UTC-4, Phil Hobbs wrote:

There's another study that claims that 50% of the UK population may have
already caught it. If so, most of whom must have gotten over it
quickly, because the percentage testing positive for the virus is much
less than that.

Palm slaps forehead> Yes, and what might be the proof the study used to determine 50% of the population had this bug? ESP? Or are you displaying a dry, British wit?

You really shouldn't be touching your face like that.

The study is from the University of Oxford, and highlights the need for
antibody studies ASAP.

https://www.dropbox.com/s/oxmu2rwsnhi9j9c/Draft-COVID-19-Model%20(13).pdf?dl=1

Perhaps you can explain exactly what is meant by "proportion of population at risk of severe disease"?

They talk about the ? value "decreased to plausible values". What are "plausible values"?

If antibody tests are used or not used, what will change with this disease?


If you can't understand the paper, I can't help that. Soooorrry.

Cheers

Phil Hobbs

Why would anyone WANT to be ignorant of the dynamics of this
infection? That should shock me but, sadly, it doesn't.

If indeed most people have had it, if it peaks and burns out quickly,
we don't need an extended lockdown.



--

John Larkin Highland Technology, Inc

The cork popped merrily, and Lord Peter rose to his feet.
"Bunter", he said, "I give you a toast. The triumph of Instinct over Reason"