FUD...

[Don Y]

On 9/6/2022 8:13 AM, Martin Brown wrote:

On 06/09/2022 15:08, Don Y wrote:
On 9/6/2022 1:22 AM, Martin Brown wrote:

[snip]
What makes you think they can\'t think of OTHER ways of augmenting the existing
distribution system? Why can\'t energy be accumulated -- at a modest rate --
over a period LEADING UP TO the expected harvest time and \"stored\" until needed
for that \"burst of activity\"? (Harvest *may* be a 10-12 day event but it\'s not
a 365 day event!)

If you price the batteries required to do this it becomes prohibitive very
quickly. Even the passive bulk fuel stores are non-trivial costs.

Is it *cheaper* if you price the environmental costs of continuing to use
fossil fuels?

I\'m doing the sums at the moment to have storage batteries for my home and they
work out at about £600 /kWhr on the scale I want.

Note that chemical batteries aren\'t the only way to store energy.
E.g., here, we have cubic miles of water behind dams storing energy
for use when it is convenient.

Also to handle unreliability of electricity supply in winter - you can\'t not
milk the cows just because the mains has failed again.

Sounds like you\'ve got a more fundamental problem that needs addressing.
Does every \"ill\" person keep their own backup genset to cover the EXPECTED
outages? (Is this a first, second or THIRD world country?)

Anyone needing continuous power medical equipment to stay alive does and there
are mechanisms which I don\'t fully understand to get vulnerable users supplied
by small petrol or diesel units before their UPS runs out. One failing of the
rollout of VOIP and full fibre in our area is that the POTS based Care on Call
systems are dead in the water during a powercut and it seems the Telcos didn\'t
think it would be a problem!

POTS, here, runs off battery -- with backup *jet* powered gensets to keep
the exchanges alive in the event the mains go away.

If you move everything onto *glass*, then you\'re screwed. Ditto cellular.

As far as electricity and to some extent internet is concerned we are pretty
close to being a third world country (but without the resilience that would
normally imply). I expect a long cold dark winter since we have next to no gas
storage and rely on gas for 60% of our electricity!

I thought stockpiling gas stores was ongoing in light of Russia\'s hissy fits?

> The new as from today PM has said \"energy will not be rationed\".

One can *say* anything one wants. The reality may be different!
We certainly don\'t believe that \"water will not be rationed\", here!
Folks who plan on having as much as they want will likely be
unpleasantly surprised.

Actually in this instance I think that they have it right at least in the
UK. All electric combines would result in losing half the crop to weather or
needing at least double or triple the number of working units so that one or
two could be on charge whilst the other was working.

Why does the entire combine have to be sidelined while charging?

I\'ve a client who operates a fleet of large (10 ft forks, 30 ft lift)
electric forklifts, two shifts, 6 days per week. He doesn\'t plan on
having half of them on a charger while the other half are in use.

You could manhandle the batteries in and out but it is yet another damn thing
to go wrong and more downtime during harvest.

The battery can accompany the combine in a tender, tethered to the \"load\".

Necessity, mother, invention...

Battery sets at that capacity
will be enormously expensive. However you do it you have to have enough stored
energy to do the required large task or be able to get it and quickly. The time
window when the crop is ripe is narrow.

But it\'s like XMAS -- you KNOW it is coming and know roughly *when*.
I.e., planning can offset risk.

UK infrastructure is pretty screwed and generating capacity is completely
screwed so yes it is going to get interesting this winter.

But this (presumably) is a transitional state. Eventually, The Adults will
be forced to step up and make the tough decisions.

And, you don\'t have to have a battery large enough to power a 600HP combine!
Comobines got big because the number of operators (drivers) was small and
you wanted to get the most \"work\" done in the least amount of \"driver time\"
(drivers can\'t stay awake nonstop).

But, you could automate the driving function (it\'s largely straight lines
with no real obstacles to dodge) and have 5 times as many *smaller* units
operating concurrently. So, the battery requirements for an individual unit
are reduced.

Modern combines are already fairly automated and on GPS tracking yield with
field coordinates etc. It is possible that smaller units will become favoured
but right now they have the biggest brute they can fit in. UK fields are much
smaller than US ones. Near me which is mixed farming rather than grain belt
fields are about 500m x 500m.

But combines evolved into behemoths because bigger was considered an efficiency
hack. Once the relative weights of the individual design decisions are
rejiggered, a different solution will likely emerge.

Here, homes had *no* insulation in the walls at the start of the 20th century.
A certain amount of \"draft\" was to be expected; light a fire if you want to
feel cozy; burn CHEAP heating oil to deal with the larger thermal mass.

Suddenly, heating costs (and comfort) rose on the relative scale of design
criteria and the solution space changed.

We removed our lawn ~30 years ago as it was evident that watering it was a
silly waste of water in a place where water is scarce. Prior to that,
homes were developed \"in town\" *with* lawns as the concern wasn\'t as dire.
Yet, we don\'t have \"non-grass\" (bare dirt) as that would be a lousy solution
to the \"yard without need of water\" problem.

We have a 12% (electricity) tariff increase in the works (they ALWAYS get
approved so hoping it won\'t is silly!). So, we\'ll start more aggressively
looking at how much power we waste, around here... maybe turn off a few
computers or move the big freezer into \"living space\" instead of the hot
garage, etc.

Criteria change so solutions change.

And, units can swap batteries as their harvest is collected from them
(why expend energy to drag that crop around once it\'s been harvested?)

They don\'t. They run a second tractor unit parallel and dump the grain into

Yes. So, put the battery in THAT unit. When full, it can be replaced by an
\"empty one\" -- with a fresh battery!

that. The combine only uses its internal grain tank when they are swapping bulk
grain handling trailers over. The combine keeps running pretty much
relentlessly whilst the weather holds good. They start about 5am once the
nights dew has burned off and stop only when it starts to condense again
sometimes as late as midnight continuing under lights.

You can refuel a combine PDQ - it takes a long time to charge a battery
(even if the local mains distribution was up to the stress that would impose).

You\'re assuming electricity has to come from a chemical battery that
must be recharged on-site. Why can\'t a fuel cell deliver the energy to
the load? Or, a precharged battery? Or, a distribution network (\"third
rail\") that criss-crosses the field, powered from a convenient location?

The big snag is that everybody and their dog wants the same kit running flat
out at exactly the same time. Breakdowns are a nightmare.

Then there\'s obviously a *need* that isn\'t being addressed. The question is
whether or not the pols will rise to the occasion... or punt it to the next
guy (until it can\'t be punted any farther)

Neighbor switched to an all electric kitchen. And, upgraded his electric
service accordingly. There are consequences to decisions.

Fuel cells are the joke that just keeps on giving. They are in principle the
best thing since sliced bread but the catalyst gets poisoned so easily that in
practice they invariably under perform.

So, it\'s a technology that needs refining. ICEs were conceptually wonderful
creations -- as long as you ignored all the environmental consequences of
their use. Technology has tried to mitigate some of that (pollution) but
can\'t mitigate all of it (CO2). Eventually, you realize a different solution
is required.

Don\'t get me wrong here I am generally in favour of sensible approaches to
green energy and was at a major UK event in London\'s Trafalgar Square with kit
on show using fuel cells that could in principle power an entire major
telephone exchange.

However, the only fuel cells actually working were educational toys powering a
solitary LED and the whole exhibition itself was powered by noisy smelly diesel
electric generators! That says a lot!!!

It says that no one thought to make an investment in the technology as there
doesn\'t seem to be anyone clawing at a solution that could avail itself of
them. We\'ll find some way of kicking the climate can down the road cuz
*we* don\'t want to \"pay a price\".

Until someone imposes a solution on us.

Moving combine harvesters around on our narrow roads is also something of a
fraught operation. I honestly don\'t see how it could be done!

So, combines never leave their assigned farms? They are air-lifted in from
the manufacturer? Serviced in place (regardless of severity of problem)?

They do move around but they cause total chaos on even larger roads. The lead

Because they are oversized behemoths. I grew up in farm country with 20 ft
wide roadways (for bidirectional traffic). If the school bus happened to
get \"stuck\" behind a farmer driving his tractor down the roadway, we were
late to school. <shrug> Fact of life. If there was a demand to avoid
this inconvenience, then monies would have been spent to widen that roadway.
Or, the bus route would have been diverted to a roadway that was less likely
to encounter THAT farmer.

vehicle says combine escort and tows the blade and then the combine lumbers
along behind at a stately speed occupying the full width of our small rural
road. If you meet one you have no alternative but to back up the previous field
gateway.

All the more reason to downsize to smaller units! :

[I\'ve not even addressed the possibility of reducing the operations done
in *a* unit and distributing that workload over different units with
differing capabilities. Don\'t be bound by a solution to one set of
design criteria that may not be appropriate for another problem space!]

I can\'t see combine harvesters being replaced any time soon. They are insanely
expensive pieces of kit and get worked into the ground.

Ah, but the quoted email suggested they would be replaced next year
(ahead of their \"three year replacement interval\").

See the folly?

 

[Dean Hoffman]

On Monday, September 12, 2022 at 11:18:15 AM UTC-5, Don Y wrote:

On 9/12/2022 9:10 AM, rbowman wrote:
On 09/12/2022 09:23 AM, Don Y wrote:
There\'s no reason the mechanisms of the combine that performs those
tasks can\'t be replicated in another device(s) -- one that is mobile
or stationary (and you transport product *to* it)

You\'ll wind up doing a lot more transporting. A combine leaves the waste on the
field to be plowed under. With your system you\'d need to bring the high volume
of the unprocessed matter to a central location, bring it back to the fields
after extracting the grain, and distribute it uniformly.
If the alternative is NOT to harvest, there will be a means found to do this!

A second device could follow the harvester in much the same way that
a grain car does for some crops.

Or, someone will figure out a use for the \"refuse\".

Or, someone will decide that corn isn\'t an efficient crop to grow/harvest..

You might be surprised how many uses there are for it.
\"Plastics aren’t entirely made up of synthetic substances – in fact, corn-based plastics have become very popular in recent years as companies strive to find methods for reducing the environmental impact of plastics. Corn-based plastics use up to 68% less fossil fuels in production than traditional plastics, and are estimated to emit 55% less greenhouse gases. Additionally, many of these plastics are also biodegradable. You’ll find corn plastics used in food containers and plastic food packaging, disposable dishware and gift cards.\"
From: <https://www.farmprogress.com/vegetables/13-ways-corn-used-our-everyday-lives>

Or...

Thinking you can imagine the ultimate solution without numeric constraints
on the problem is an exercise in futility; WHEN the problem appears, a
solution will manifest!

 

[corvid]

On 9/12/22 07:22, John Larkin wrote:

https://www.deere.com/en/gator-utility-vehicles/traditional-gators/te-4x2-electric-utility-vehicle/

It uses eight big lead-acid batteries that cost around $400 each.

That\'s *your* price.

https://advantagebatteries.com/shop/trojan-t145-6v-deep-cycle-battery/

https://myvehicletalk.com/chevy-volt-battery-replacement-cost/
https://www.slashgear.com/984329/this-chevy-volt-battery-replacement-shows-an-outrageous-repair-cost-after-only-70k-miles/

The $30,000 Volt replacement may or may not be accurate but there is
enough data to suggest EV\'s are a lot like cellphones without user
serviceable batteries. Yes, you CAN have the battery replaced but it is
more than the car is worth so it goes into the scrap pile when the
battery dies.

Hopefully the Gator uses more or less standard golf cart / fork lift
batteries but it\'s still a chunk of change.


Dealer prices for replacement car parts must average 30:1 markup over
their cost. I just got a silly wiring harness for $300.

The parts guy recognizes you, and silly wiring harnesses are $300 for a
chump who will pay $400 for the battery.

 

[Don Y]

On 9/12/2022 9:51 AM, Dean Hoffman wrote:

On Monday, September 12, 2022 at 11:18:15 AM UTC-5, Don Y wrote:
On 9/12/2022 9:10 AM, rbowman wrote:
On 09/12/2022 09:23 AM, Don Y wrote:
There\'s no reason the mechanisms of the combine that performs those
tasks can\'t be replicated in another device(s) -- one that is mobile
or stationary (and you transport product *to* it)

You\'ll wind up doing a lot more transporting. A combine leaves the waste
on the field to be plowed under. With your system you\'d need to bring
the high volume of the unprocessed matter to a central location, bring
it back to the fields after extracting the grain, and distribute it
uniformly.
If the alternative is NOT to harvest, there will be a means found to do
this!

A second device could follow the harvester in much the same way that a
grain car does for some crops.

Or, someone will figure out a use for the \"refuse\".

Or, someone will decide that corn isn\'t an efficient crop to
grow/harvest.

You might be surprised how many uses there are for it. \"Plastics aren’t
entirely made up of synthetic substances – in fact, corn-based plastics have
become very popular in recent years as companies strive to find methods for
reducing the environmental impact of plastics. Corn-based plastics use up to
68% less fossil fuels in production than traditional plastics, and are
estimated to emit 55% less greenhouse gases. Additionally, many of these
plastics are also biodegradable. You’ll find corn plastics used in food
containers and plastic food packaging, disposable dishware and gift cards.\"

Yes, but I suspect \"other uses\" don\'t have the same \"edibility\" criteria
that goes with corn grown as a foodstuff.

Is time of harvest as critical (\"running 24 hours a day for 10-12 days)?
Moisture content? Cosmetics? Pest infestation? etc.

I.e., you have different criteria as to what you are producing
which can lead to different solutions for harvest. Is corn for
popping grown the same way as sweet corn? Corn consumed by
livestock? etc.

The whole point of this thread has been that you can\'t rely on a solution
arrived at under one set of criteria to be optimal or even efficient
under another set. \"Complaining\" that \"going electric\" is folly...
is folly! :>

 

[Martin Brown]

On 06/09/2022 20:31, Don Y wrote:

On 9/6/2022 8:13 AM, Martin Brown wrote:
On 06/09/2022 15:08, Don Y wrote:
On 9/6/2022 1:22 AM, Martin Brown wrote:

[snip]
What makes you think they can\'t think of OTHER ways of augmenting the
existing
distribution system?  Why can\'t energy be accumulated -- at a modest
rate --
over a period LEADING UP TO the expected harvest time and \"stored\"
until needed
for that \"burst of activity\"?  (Harvest *may* be a 10-12 day event
but it\'s not
a 365 day event!)

If you price the batteries required to do this it becomes prohibitive
very quickly. Even the passive bulk fuel stores are non-trivial costs.

Is it *cheaper* if you price the environmental costs of continuing to use
fossil fuels?

Probably - at least if you live 50\' above sea level.

I\'m doing the sums at the moment to have storage batteries for my home
and they work out at about £600 /kWhr on the scale I want.

Note that chemical batteries aren\'t the only way to store energy.
E.g., here, we have cubic miles of water behind dams storing energy
for use when it is convenient.

There is some pumped storage in the UK but nowhere near enough to make
any kind of dent. It is good for smoothing out the peak demand though -
it can come online very quickly.

Also to handle unreliability of electricity supply in winter - you
can\'t not milk the cows just because the mains has failed again.

Sounds like you\'ve got a more fundamental problem that needs addressing.
Does every \"ill\" person keep their own backup genset to cover the
EXPECTED
outages?  (Is this a first, second or THIRD world country?)

Anyone needing continuous power medical equipment to stay alive does
and there are mechanisms which I don\'t fully understand to get
vulnerable users supplied by small petrol or diesel units before their
UPS runs out. One failing of the rollout of VOIP and full fibre in our
area is that the POTS based Care on Call systems are dead in the water
during a powercut and it seems the Telcos didn\'t think it would be a
problem!

POTS, here, runs off battery -- with backup *jet* powered gensets to keep
the exchanges alive in the event the mains go away.

If you move everything onto *glass*, then you\'re screwed.  Ditto cellular.

Not quite. There are fewer bigger exchanges each needing a lot less
power than the old prehistoric POTS lines did to drive them. My local
phone exchange is 5 miles away. My full fibre runs back to the nearest
county town 15 miles away so only 10% as many exchanges needed.

As far as electricity and to some extent internet is concerned we are
pretty close to being a third world country (but without the
resilience that would normally imply). I expect a long cold dark
winter since we have next to no gas storage and rely on gas for 60% of
our electricity!

I thought stockpiling gas stores was ongoing in light of Russia\'s hissy
fits?

It is in mainland Europe where they actually *have* decent gas storage
facilities. Ours are all brim full (what little of it there is). Even
Spain (which is a fairly warm Mediterranean country) has more!

https://www.statista.com/statistics/688149/underground-gas-storage-volume-by-country-europe/

UK is presently exporting our gas to Europe to help fill up their
copious storage tanks. The UK closed down its biggest remaining gas
storage facility Rough in 2017 (to cut down overheads). They are
presently scrambling to get it back online and if we are lucky it might
just be ready to accept gas by Xmas by which time to spot market price
for gas in mid-winter will be truly stratospheric.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/nils-pratley-on-finance/2022/aug/31/the-rough-gas-storage-tale-is-typical-of-tory-ministers-complacency

UK all up has about 10 days of gas storage capacity between us and
rolling power cuts when the shit hits the fan. It depends a lot on
whether the EU players will sell us some of their gas back at usurious
prices or they need it all just to keep their own lights on.

Most European countries have about 60-80 days gas storage capacity that
is presently around 80% or so full according to recent reports.

The new as from today PM has said \"energy will not be rationed\".

One can *say* anything one wants.  The reality may be different!
We certainly don\'t believe that \"water will not be rationed\", here!
Folks who plan on having as much as they want will likely be
unpleasantly surprised.

We have a new form of Tinkerbellism in the latest PM. She thinks that if
you wish for something hard enough it will always come true. So far she
has been proved right - since she *is* now the new PM.

It will likely be a white knuckle ride in the UK this winter.

Actually in this instance I think that they have it right at least
in the UK. All electric combines would result in losing half the
crop to weather or needing at least double or triple the number of
working units so that one or two could be on charge whilst the other
was working.

Why does the entire combine have to be sidelined while charging?

I\'ve a client who operates a fleet of large (10 ft forks, 30 ft lift)
electric forklifts, two shifts, 6 days per week.  He doesn\'t plan on
having half of them on a charger while the other half are in use.

You could manhandle the batteries in and out but it is yet another
damn thing to go wrong and more downtime during harvest.

The battery can accompany the combine in a tender, tethered to the \"load\".

Necessity, mother, invention...

Battery sets at that capacity will be enormously expensive. However
you do it you have to have enough stored energy to do the required
large task or be able to get it and quickly. The time window when the
crop is ripe is narrow.

But it\'s like XMAS -- you KNOW it is coming and know roughly *when*.
I.e., planning can offset risk.

UK infrastructure is pretty screwed and generating capacity is
completely screwed so yes it is going to get interesting this winter.

But this (presumably) is a transitional state.  Eventually, The Adults will
be forced to step up and make the tough decisions.

I wouldn\'t like to bet on that

And, you don\'t have to have a battery large enough to power a 600HP
combine!
Comobines got big because the number of operators (drivers) was small
and
you wanted to get the most \"work\" done in the least amount of \"driver
time\"
(drivers can\'t stay awake nonstop).

But, you could automate the driving function (it\'s largely straight
lines
with no real obstacles to dodge) and have 5 times as many *smaller*
units
operating concurrently.  So, the battery requirements for an
individual unit
are reduced.

Modern combines are already fairly automated and on GPS tracking yield
with field coordinates etc. It is possible that smaller units will
become favoured but right now they have the biggest brute they can fit
in. UK fields are much smaller than US ones. Near me which is mixed
farming rather than grain belt fields are about 500m x 500m.

But combines evolved into behemoths because bigger was considered an
efficiency
hack.  Once the relative weights of the individual design decisions are
rejiggered, a different solution will likely emerge.

Here, homes had *no* insulation in the walls at the start of the 20th
century.

They still don\'t in a lot of the UK. My own Victorian era house is
extremely difficult make energy efficient with solid brick and stone
walls (though parts are 3\' thick). It is slow to warm up in summer and
correspondingly has a lot of thermal inertia in the core in winter.

Compared to a modern build with high quality insulation between a double
skin wall it is rubbish though. On the plus side mine was previously
unsympathetically extended before it could be listed. Most of the rest
of the village are stuck with a grade 2 or 2* listing which means almost
any kind of modification that wasn\'t possible in 1910 is verboten!

A certain amount of \"draft\" was to be expected; light a fire if you want to
feel cozy; burn CHEAP heating oil to deal with the larger thermal mass.

Heating oil is the worst of all possible worlds here now. Its price
isn\'t capped at all and suppliers can price gouge for supplying it.
Ironically just after the first lockdown they were begging people to
take it off their hands when there were no planes flying.

Suddenly, heating costs (and comfort) rose on the relative scale of design
criteria and the solution space changed.

The people on the worst deal in the UK right now are the ones who
previously had the best greenest local combined heat and power
generation systems built into their buildings. Co-generation of
electricity and hot water. Snag is the supplier is treated as a business
and so is on the uncapped business gas rate which is massively higher
than the domestic price capped tariff (in part to cross subsidise).

We removed our lawn ~30 years ago as it was evident that watering it was a
silly waste of water in a place where water is scarce.  Prior to that,
homes were developed \"in town\" *with* lawns as the concern wasn\'t as dire.
Yet, we don\'t have \"non-grass\" (bare dirt) as that would be a lousy
solution
to the \"yard without need of water\" problem.

We have a 12% (electricity) tariff increase in the works (they ALWAYS get
approved so hoping it won\'t is silly!).  So, we\'ll start more aggressively
looking at how much power we waste, around here... maybe turn off a few
computers or move the big freezer into \"living space\" instead of the hot
garage, etc.

Here the price cap is (was?) about to go up by 80% at the end of this
month. But it is possible the new PM will change all that.

Criteria change so solutions change.


Don\'t get me wrong here I am generally in favour of sensible
approaches to green energy and was at a major UK event in London\'s
Trafalgar Square with kit on show using fuel cells that could in
principle power an entire major telephone exchange.

However, the only fuel cells actually working were educational toys
powering a solitary LED and the whole exhibition itself was powered by
noisy smelly diesel electric generators! That says a lot!!!

It says that no one thought to make an investment in the technology as
there
doesn\'t seem to be anyone clawing at a solution that could avail itself of
them.  We\'ll find some way of kicking the climate can down the road cuz
*we* don\'t want to \"pay a price\".

I suspect that is how it will play out. Particularly now when energy
prices are sky high and the pips are really squeaking.

Until someone imposes a solution on us.


I can\'t see combine harvesters being replaced any time soon. They are
insanely expensive pieces of kit and get worked into the ground.

Ah, but the quoted email suggested they would be replaced next year
(ahead of their \"three year replacement interval\").

See the folly?

That seems most unlikely to me. Farmers only replace stuff when it quite
literally falls apart. Vintage tractors are a thing around here too.

--
Regards,
Martin Brown

 

[rbowman]

On 09/06/2022 01:31 PM, Don Y wrote:

Note that chemical batteries aren\'t the only way to store energy.
E.g., here, we have cubic miles of water behind dams storing energy
for use when it is convenient.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northfield_Mountain_(hydroelectricity_facility)

The company I worked for at the time was a distributor for Trabon
lubrication systems. I had little to do with that end of the business
but I tagged along with the installation crew one day to \'check\' the
controllers. It was an impressive facility. There were multiple
workstations with every Rigid tool known to man at each, all brand new.

https://d279m997dpfwgl.cloudfront.net/wp/2016/12/1128_hydro-battery05.jpg

It was a little eerie realizing you were under a lake. One of the guys
had crawled into a penstock to install a lube point when they opened an
adjacent one for testing. He came out a lot faster than he crawled it.

 

[Lasse Langwadt Christensen]

onsdag den 7. september 2022 kl. 01.06.14 UTC+2 skrev rbowman:

On 09/06/2022 01:31 PM, Don Y wrote:
Note that chemical batteries aren\'t the only way to store energy.
E.g., here, we have cubic miles of water behind dams storing energy
for use when it is convenient.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northfield_Mountain_(hydroelectricity_facility)

The company I worked for at the time was a distributor for Trabon
lubrication systems. I had little to do with that end of the business
but I tagged along with the installation crew one day to \'check\' the
controllers. It was an impressive facility. There were multiple
workstations with every Rigid tool known to man at each, all brand new.

https://d279m997dpfwgl.cloudfront.net/wp/2016/12/1128_hydro-battery05.jpg

It was a little eerie realizing you were under a lake. One of the guys
had crawled into a penstock to install a lube point when they opened an
adjacent one for testing. He came out a lot faster than he crawled it.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taum_Sauk_Hydroelectric_Power_Station#2005_upper_reservoir_failure

 

[rbowman]

On 09/06/2022 05:17 PM, Lasse Langwadt Christensen wrote:

onsdag den 7. september 2022 kl. 01.06.14 UTC+2 skrev rbowman:
On 09/06/2022 01:31 PM, Don Y wrote:
Note that chemical batteries aren\'t the only way to store energy.
E.g., here, we have cubic miles of water behind dams storing energy
for use when it is convenient.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northfield_Mountain_(hydroelectricity_facility)

The company I worked for at the time was a distributor for Trabon
lubrication systems. I had little to do with that end of the business
but I tagged along with the installation crew one day to \'check\' the
controllers. It was an impressive facility. There were multiple
workstations with every Rigid tool known to man at each, all brand new.

https://d279m997dpfwgl.cloudfront.net/wp/2016/12/1128_hydro-battery05.jpg

It was a little eerie realizing you were under a lake. One of the guys
had crawled into a penstock to install a lube point when they opened an
adjacent one for testing. He came out a lot faster than he crawled it.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taum_Sauk_Hydroelectric_Power_Station#2005_upper_reservoir_failure

https://www.latimes.com/archives/la-xpm-1999-oct-12-me-21385-story.html

I\'m assuming LA named Mulholland Drive prior to the dam collapse.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Castaic_Dam

Try, try again. Castaic Dam is about 5 miles west of the St. Francis
Dam, near the San Andreas fault line.

 

[Don Y]

On 9/6/2022 4:06 PM, rbowman wrote:

On 09/06/2022 01:31 PM, Don Y wrote:
Note that chemical batteries aren\'t the only way to store energy.
E.g., here, we have cubic miles of water behind dams storing energy
for use when it is convenient.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northfield_Mountain_(hydroelectricity_facility)

The company I worked for at the time was a distributor for Trabon lubrication
systems. I had little to do with that end of the business but I tagged along
with the installation crew one day to \'check\' the controllers. It was an
impressive facility. There were multiple workstations with every Rigid tool
known to man at each, all brand new.

https://d279m997dpfwgl.cloudfront.net/wp/2016/12/1128_hydro-battery05.jpg

It was a little eerie realizing you were under a lake. One of the guys had
crawled into a penstock to install a lube point when they opened an adjacent
one for testing. He came out a lot faster than he crawled it.

I\'m not particularly claustrophobic -- Karchner Kaverns was exciting, not
threatening; my tour of NORAD similarly so (2000\' of stone over your head).
But, am always amazed at how construction can be done, successfully,
underground, in the presence of other buried/invisible \"things\".

E.g., The Big Dig has lots of opportunities to run into stuff it shouldn\'t.
Or, you see documentaries of new subways being \"threaded\" between existing
ones at different Z-levels. \"Ooops! We\'re a couple of feet too high, Bob...\"

You can claim \"good recordkeeping\" is the key but how do you know your records
are complete in an area that has a long history?

 

[Don Y]

On 9/6/2022 7:32 PM, rbowman wrote:

Try, try again. Castaic Dam is about 5 miles west of the St. Francis Dam, near
the San Andreas fault line.

And the Japanese are thinking about revisiting nuclear...

I\'m sure there\'s some science that allows folks to assess the risk of
placing a structure of type X at a distance of Y from a hazzard Z
in soil of characteristics S. But, I\'m equally sure they can\'t
know, with certainty, that S is a constant or behaves in a certain
manner under all conditions.

[How do you model 1,000 year events? 10,000 year events?]

Who in their right mind would build New Orleans where it is? What were
the mathematical chances of Katrina and the damage inflicted?

ooops!

 

[Dean Hoffman]

On Monday, September 12, 2022 at 11:59:45 AM UTC-5, Don Y wrote:

On 9/12/2022 9:51 AM, Dean Hoffman wrote:
On Monday, September 12, 2022 at 11:18:15 AM UTC-5, Don Y wrote:
On 9/12/2022 9:10 AM, rbowman wrote:
On 09/12/2022 09:23 AM, Don Y wrote:
There\'s no reason the mechanisms of the combine that performs those
tasks can\'t be replicated in another device(s) -- one that is mobile
or stationary (and you transport product *to* it)

You\'ll wind up doing a lot more transporting. A combine leaves the waste
on the field to be plowed under. With your system you\'d need to bring
the high volume of the unprocessed matter to a central location, bring
it back to the fields after extracting the grain, and distribute it
uniformly.
If the alternative is NOT to harvest, there will be a means found to do
this!

A second device could follow the harvester in much the same way that a
grain car does for some crops.

Or, someone will figure out a use for the \"refuse\".

Or, someone will decide that corn isn\'t an efficient crop to
grow/harvest.

You might be surprised how many uses there are for it. \"Plastics aren’t
entirely made up of synthetic substances – in fact, corn-based plastics have
become very popular in recent years as companies strive to find methods for
reducing the environmental impact of plastics. Corn-based plastics use up to
68% less fossil fuels in production than traditional plastics, and are
estimated to emit 55% less greenhouse gases. Additionally, many of these
plastics are also biodegradable. You’ll find corn plastics used in food
containers and plastic food packaging, disposable dishware and gift cards.\"
Yes, but I suspect \"other uses\" don\'t have the same \"edibility\" criteria
that goes with corn grown as a foodstuff.

Is time of harvest as critical (\"running 24 hours a day for 10-12 days)?
Moisture content? Cosmetics? Pest infestation? etc.

I.e., you have different criteria as to what you are producing
which can lead to different solutions for harvest. Is corn for
popping grown the same way as sweet corn? Corn consumed by
livestock? etc.

Harvesting 24/7 isn\'t going to happen at least around here. Guys need to sleep . Some like to let the dew dry off in the morning also. They can find other things to do in the meantime.
There\'s a pretty good explanation here:
<https://kansasfarmfoodconnection.org/spotlights/what-arey -the-different-types-of-corn>
They left out seed corn. That\'s different also. The seed corn plant behind my house started
their drying fans ten days ago or so. Seed corn is just air dried with no heat as far as I know.
It\'s harvested with corn pickers. The whole ear, cob and all is trucked to the seed processing plant.
The farmers in my area raise mainly soybeans and corn. The beans ripen first so farmers get
the beans out then worry about the corn.
Timing of harvest is a balance between letting the corn dry in the field for free vs. the worry of a wet fall or early snowstorm. Shelled corn needs to be stored at around 14% moisture. The corn plants weaken considerably once they do their job producing an ear of corn. A snow makes a real mess since it comes with a strong wind many times. Guys usually don\'t wait. It\'s nice if they can get the crop out, then disc and apply NH3 for the next year.
They can\'t apply it before November 1st. That lets the soil cool so the NH3 doesn\'t activate for lack of a better word.
I don\'t know many that apply nitrogen through their irrigation systems. That was a hot thing for awhile but didn\'t seem to be adopted widely. It rains enough some summers here in central Nebraska that the corn could need fertilizer but not water.

The whole point of this thread has been that you can\'t rely on a solution
arrived at under one set of criteria to be optimal or even efficient
under another set. \"Complaining\" that \"going electric\" is folly...
is folly! :

 

[Dean Hoffman]

On Monday, September 12, 2022 at 3:41:21 PM UTC-5, Dean Hoffman wrote:

On Monday, September 12, 2022 at 11:59:45 AM UTC-5, Don Y wrote:
On 9/12/2022 9:51 AM, Dean Hoffman wrote:
On Monday, September 12, 2022 at 11:18:15 AM UTC-5, Don Y wrote:
On 9/12/2022 9:10 AM, rbowman wrote:
On 09/12/2022 09:23 AM, Don Y wrote:
There\'s no reason the mechanisms of the combine that performs those
tasks can\'t be replicated in another device(s) -- one that is mobile
or stationary (and you transport product *to* it)

You\'ll wind up doing a lot more transporting. A combine leaves the waste
on the field to be plowed under. With your system you\'d need to bring
the high volume of the unprocessed matter to a central location, bring
it back to the fields after extracting the grain, and distribute it
uniformly.
If the alternative is NOT to harvest, there will be a means found to do
this!

A second device could follow the harvester in much the same way that a
grain car does for some crops.

Or, someone will figure out a use for the \"refuse\".

Or, someone will decide that corn isn\'t an efficient crop to
grow/harvest.

You might be surprised how many uses there are for it. \"Plastics aren’t
entirely made up of synthetic substances – in fact, corn-based plastics have
become very popular in recent years as companies strive to find methods for
reducing the environmental impact of plastics. Corn-based plastics use up to
68% less fossil fuels in production than traditional plastics, and are
estimated to emit 55% less greenhouse gases. Additionally, many of these
plastics are also biodegradable. You’ll find corn plastics used in food
containers and plastic food packaging, disposable dishware and gift cards.\"
Yes, but I suspect \"other uses\" don\'t have the same \"edibility\" criteria
that goes with corn grown as a foodstuff.

Is time of harvest as critical (\"running 24 hours a day for 10-12 days)?
Moisture content? Cosmetics? Pest infestation? etc.

I.e., you have different criteria as to what you are producing
which can lead to different solutions for harvest. Is corn for
popping grown the same way as sweet corn? Corn consumed by
livestock? etc.
Harvesting 24/7 isn\'t going to happen at least around here. Guys need to sleep . Some like to let the dew dry off in the morning also. They can find other things to do in the meantime.
There\'s a pretty good explanation here:
https://kansasfarmfoodconnection.org/spotlights/what-arey -the-different-types-of-corn
They left out seed corn. That\'s different also. The seed corn plant behind my house started
their drying fans ten days ago or so. Seed corn is just air dried with no heat as far as I know.
It\'s harvested with corn pickers. The whole ear, cob and all is trucked to the seed processing plant.
The farmers in my area raise mainly soybeans and corn. The beans ripen first so farmers get
the beans out then worry about the corn.
Timing of harvest is a balance between letting the corn dry in the field for free vs. the worry of a wet fall or early snowstorm. Shelled corn needs to be stored at around 14% moisture. The corn plants weaken considerably once they do their job producing an ear of corn. A snow makes a real mess since it comes with a strong wind many times. Guys usually don\'t wait. It\'s nice if they can get the crop out, then disc and apply NH3 for the next year..
They can\'t apply it before November 1st. That lets the soil cool so the NH3 doesn\'t activate for lack of a better word.
I don\'t know many that apply nitrogen through their irrigation systems. That was a hot thing for awhile but didn\'t seem to be adopted widely. It rains enough some summers here in central Nebraska that the corn could need fertilizer but not water.

The whole point of this thread has been that you can\'t rely on a solution
arrived at under one set of criteria to be optimal or even efficient
under another set. \"Complaining\" that \"going electric\" is folly...
is folly! :

The link I used to describe types of corn didn\'t work when I tried it. Maybe this will.
<https://kansasfarmfoodconnection.org/spotlights/what-are-the-different-types-of-corn>

 

[rbowman]

On 09/06/2022 09:53 PM, Don Y wrote:

\'m not particularly claustrophobic -- Karchner Kaverns was exciting, not
threatening; my tour of NORAD similarly so (2000\' of stone over your head).
But, am always amazed at how construction can be done, successfully,
underground, in the presence of other buried/invisible \"things\".

https://pitwatch.org/computer-model-shows-berkeley-pit-butte-mine-tunnels/

The Museum of Mining has a couple of physical models that were used in
lawsuits between companies that claimed a neighbor had drifted into
their claim. I was curious how they had even come close to mapping them
in the early 20th century. Most of the gallows (headframes) are still
standing in Butte adding to the scenery. They\'d switched to open pit
mining. When that shut down in \'82 the pumps in the mines were turned
off and so they and the pit are filled with toxic water:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Berkeley_Pit

Ajo has the Phelps-Dodge open pit, but being Arizona there only a small
pond at the bottom of the pit. I imaging the pH and specific gravity is
something else at this point. That one shut down in \'82 or \'83 also.

I enjoyed Karcher, Mammoth, Lewis & Clark, Howe Caverns and so forth but
that was as far as it goes. The college outing club was divided between
the spelunkers and the mountaineers and I definitely was in the latter
group.

 

[Don Y]

On 9/6/2022 1:51 PM, Martin Brown wrote:

Anyone needing continuous power medical equipment to stay alive does and
there are mechanisms which I don\'t fully understand to get vulnerable users
supplied by small petrol or diesel units before their UPS runs out. One
failing of the rollout of VOIP and full fibre in our area is that the POTS
based Care on Call systems are dead in the water during a powercut and it
seems the Telcos didn\'t think it would be a problem!

POTS, here, runs off battery -- with backup *jet* powered gensets to keep
the exchanges alive in the event the mains go away.

If you move everything onto *glass*, then you\'re screwed. Ditto cellular.

Not quite. There are fewer bigger exchanges each needing a lot less power than
the old prehistoric POTS lines did to drive them. My local phone exchange is 5
miles away. My full fibre runs back to the nearest county town 15 miles away so
only 10% as many exchanges needed.

But you need local power to run your handset, modem, etc.

Traditional POTS you could operate in the absence of power -- both at
your end and at the CO!

As far as electricity and to some extent internet is concerned we are pretty
close to being a third world country (but without the resilience that would
normally imply). I expect a long cold dark winter since we have next to no
gas storage and rely on gas for 60% of our electricity!

I thought stockpiling gas stores was ongoing in light of Russia\'s hissy fits?

It is in mainland Europe where they actually *have* decent gas storage
facilities. Ours are all brim full (what little of it there is). Even Spain
(which is a fairly warm Mediterranean country) has more!

So, there\'s no \"buffer\" in your distribution network?

UK is presently exporting our gas to Europe to help fill up their copious
storage tanks. The UK closed down its biggest remaining gas storage facility
Rough in 2017 (to cut down overheads).

Margaret Thatcher would be proud! (ha!)

So, do you have an arrangement with europe to draw off THEIR stores to
reciprocate for your helping fill them?

E.g., Feenigs routes some of their water allotment to us on the
condition that we *store* it (in the aquifer) for them. (there
likely are $$ involved as well) So, I\'m sure they expect to
tap us for that stored asset, eventually...

They are presently scrambling to get it
back online and if we are lucky it might just be ready to accept gas by Xmas by
which time to spot market price for gas in mid-winter will be truly stratospheric.

Must be wonderful to have cut your ties to The Continent and be able to
go it alone! <grin>

UK all up has about 10 days of gas storage capacity between us and rolling
power cuts when the shit hits the fan. It depends a lot on whether the EU
players will sell us some of their gas back at usurious prices or they need it
all just to keep their own lights on.

Most European countries have about 60-80 days gas storage capacity that is
presently around 80% or so full according to recent reports.

So, not nearly enough to span a cold winter in the absence of other sources.

The new as from today PM has said \"energy will not be rationed\".

One can *say* anything one wants. The reality may be different!
We certainly don\'t believe that \"water will not be rationed\", here!
Folks who plan on having as much as they want will likely be
unpleasantly surprised.

We have a new form of Tinkerbellism in the latest PM. She thinks that if you
wish for something hard enough it will always come true. So far she has been
proved right - since she *is* now the new PM.

It will likely be a white knuckle ride in the UK this winter.

Amusing how strong the draw to power must be -- that folks seek it even
if they\'ll be driving the bus when the shit hits the fan! (or, perhaps
they\'ve deluded themselves into thinking they can navigate the hazards?)

Battery sets at that capacity will be enormously expensive. However you do
it you have to have enough stored energy to do the required large task or be
able to get it and quickly. The time window when the crop is ripe is narrow.

But it\'s like XMAS -- you KNOW it is coming and know roughly *when*.
I.e., planning can offset risk.

UK infrastructure is pretty screwed and generating capacity is completely
screwed so yes it is going to get interesting this winter.

But this (presumably) is a transitional state. Eventually, The Adults will
be forced to step up and make the tough decisions.

I wouldn\'t like to bet on that

The powers that be may not pull through. And, special interests may continue
to trip things up. But, eventually, promising cake and failing to deliver can
cost one one\'s head! :>

But combines evolved into behemoths because bigger was considered an efficiency
hack. Once the relative weights of the individual design decisions are
rejiggered, a different solution will likely emerge.

Here, homes had *no* insulation in the walls at the start of the 20th century.

They still don\'t in a lot of the UK. My own Victorian era house is extremely
difficult make energy efficient with solid brick and stone walls (though parts
are 3\' thick). It is slow to warm up in summer and correspondingly has a lot of
thermal inertia in the core in winter.

Compared to a modern build with high quality insulation between a double skin
wall it is rubbish though. On the plus side mine was previously
unsympathetically extended before it could be listed. Most of the rest of the
village are stuck with a grade 2 or 2* listing which means almost any kind of
modification that wasn\'t possible in 1910 is verboten!

Yet you allow EVs on your roads, indoor plumbing, etc. What are
folks trying to preserve, beyond a superficial illusion?

A certain amount of \"draft\" was to be expected; light a fire if you want to
feel cozy; burn CHEAP heating oil to deal with the larger thermal mass.

Heating oil is the worst of all possible worlds here now. Its price isn\'t
capped at all and suppliers can price gouge for supplying it. Ironically just
after the first lockdown they were begging people to take it off their hands
when there were no planes flying.

I\'ve only seen oil used as a source of heat in New England. Most of the rest
of the country relies on natural gas, some electric/heat pump, some coal.
Gas prices tend to be relatively stable whereas heating oil was a crap shoot
from one tankful to the next.

Suddenly, heating costs (and comfort) rose on the relative scale of design
criteria and the solution space changed.

The people on the worst deal in the UK right now are the ones who previously
had the best greenest local combined heat and power generation systems built
into their buildings. Co-generation of electricity and hot water. Snag is the
supplier is treated as a business and so is on the uncapped business gas rate
which is massively higher than the domestic price capped tariff (in part to
cross subsidise).

There are efforts afoot, here, to allow for the creation of \"micro-grids\"
that wouldn\'t be reliant on the public utilities. (they, of course, will
fight this tooth-and-nail as it\'s obviously a threat to their business)

One can conserve on gasoline -- by driving less, carpooling, investing in
a more fuel efficient vehicle, etc. And, to some extent, lower your
electrical footprint (same sorts of remedies).

Heating/cooling are a different matter. There\'s only so much you can do
to conserve (adjust thermostat setpoint a few degrees). And, you can\'t
easily replace/upgrade the living space to make it more efficient.
E.g., here, the floorplan is basically one large connected space with
arbitrary functional divisions (living room, den, kitchen, family room,
hallways, etc.) that don\'t have physical dividers -- like doors! So, you
can\'t \"idle\" part of the living space to reduce your heating/cooling load.

[In the peak of summer, loss of an ACbrrr will often lead to internal
temperatures approaching 100F, in short order.]

The city\'s natural gas supply was impeded (? overdrawn??) a few winters
ago. Gas was available -- but not at sufficient pressure/flow rate to
satisfy the safety cutoffs in most gas appliances. So, they would light
and then promptly shutdown (as flame sensors wouldn\'t register enough
heat to convince the appliance that the gas was actually *burning* and
not just *flowing*!)

It was an interesting experience as most folks had lived with power outages
but rarely *gas* \"outages\"!

We have a 12% (electricity) tariff increase in the works (they ALWAYS get
approved so hoping it won\'t is silly!). So, we\'ll start more aggressively
looking at how much power we waste, around here... maybe turn off a few
computers or move the big freezer into \"living space\" instead of the hot
garage, etc.

Here the price cap is (was?) about to go up by 80% at the end of this month.
But it is possible the new PM will change all that.

The 12% will be perpetual. And, augmented with cost-of-fuel pass-thrus.

I can\'t see combine harvesters being replaced any time soon. They are
insanely expensive pieces of kit and get worked into the ground.

Ah, but the quoted email suggested they would be replaced next year
(ahead of their \"three year replacement interval\").

See the folly?

That seems most unlikely to me. Farmers only replace stuff when it quite
literally falls apart. Vintage tractors are a thing around here too.

Unless some other \"necessity\" is impeded. E.g., a friend drives a
\"classic car\". Unleaded gas -- the only kind one can buy, here -- leaves
it pinging loudly. So, it costs him an extra $9/tankful to add lead
additive to his tank. Someone without deep pockets would soon come to
realize that the extra cost (50c/gallon of gas?) is a good motivator
for change.

 

[rbowman]

On 09/06/2022 09:57 PM, Don Y wrote:

On 9/6/2022 7:32 PM, rbowman wrote:

Try, try again. Castaic Dam is about 5 miles west of the St. Francis
Dam, near the San Andreas fault line.

And the Japanese are thinking about revisiting nuclear...

I\'m sure there\'s some science that allows folks to assess the risk of
placing a structure of type X at a distance of Y from a hazzard Z
in soil of characteristics S. But, I\'m equally sure they can\'t
know, with certainty, that S is a constant or behaves in a certain
manner under all conditions.

[How do you model 1,000 year events? 10,000 year events?]

Who in their right mind would build New Orleans where it is? What were
the mathematical chances of Katrina and the damage inflicted?

ooops!

https://www.conservation.ca.gov/cgs/earthquakes/northridge

Scroll down to the map Castaic is where the severity starts fading from
extreme to merely very strong. The I5/14 interchange fell down and went
boom -- again. It was destroyed in the \'71 Sylmar quake and a new,
improved version constructed. I missed the \'71 but I was a frequent
flyer between LA and Seattle in \'94 and it was a real mess.

 

[Don Y]

On 9/6/2022 10:35 PM, rbowman wrote:

On 09/06/2022 09:53 PM, Don Y wrote:
\'m not particularly claustrophobic -- Karchner Kaverns was exciting, not
threatening; my tour of NORAD similarly so (2000\' of stone over your head).
But, am always amazed at how construction can be done, successfully,
underground, in the presence of other buried/invisible \"things\".

https://pitwatch.org/computer-model-shows-berkeley-pit-butte-mine-tunnels/

The Museum of Mining has a couple of physical models that were used in lawsuits
between companies that claimed a neighbor had drifted into their claim. I was
curious how they had even come close to mapping them in the early 20th century.

You\'d assume it was done by stacking *relative* measurements and trying to
infer *actual* positions. Anyone with a bit of training knows how perilous
that can be!

Most of the gallows (headframes) are still standing in Butte adding to the
scenery. They\'d switched to open pit mining. When that shut down in \'82 the
pumps in the mines were turned off and so they and the pit are filled with
toxic water:

Most of the old mines are still visible at Cripple Creek. And, the tailings
just strewn around the entrances (\"just leave that; it\'s not OUR problem!\").
IIRC, they\'ve started mining the tailings to see if they can eek out a bit
more gold without all the effort of *digging*.

Ajo has the Phelps-Dodge open pit, but being Arizona there only a small pond at
the bottom of the pit. I imaging the pH and specific gravity is something else
at this point. That one shut down in \'82 or \'83 also.

They\'re looking to set up a new copper mine at Rosemont. \"Hydro-mining\" -- as
if water wasn\'t already scarce!

I enjoyed Karcher, Mammoth, Lewis & Clark, Howe Caverns and so forth but that
was as far as it goes. The college outing club was divided between the
spelunkers and the mountaineers and I definitely was in the latter group.

Yeah, the idea of crawling into an unexplored hole in the ground just
to see what MIGHT be inside doesn\'t appeal to me!

While the interior was impressive -- all the different formations (along with
the amusing names assigned!) as well as the size of The Great Room -- I was
more impressed with the lengths they had gone to keep the cave system \"alive\".
The airlocks on the entrance/exit, moisture monitoring, etc.

And the \"gestapo-like\" attitude of the tour guides: \"Don\'t TOUCH that
(lest you kill it!)\"

 

[Don Y]

On 9/6/2022 10:52 PM, rbowman wrote:

On 09/06/2022 09:57 PM, Don Y wrote:
On 9/6/2022 7:32 PM, rbowman wrote:

Try, try again. Castaic Dam is about 5 miles west of the St. Francis
Dam, near the San Andreas fault line.

And the Japanese are thinking about revisiting nuclear...

I\'m sure there\'s some science that allows folks to assess the risk of
placing a structure of type X at a distance of Y from a hazzard Z
in soil of characteristics S. But, I\'m equally sure they can\'t
know, with certainty, that S is a constant or behaves in a certain
manner under all conditions.

[How do you model 1,000 year events? 10,000 year events?]

Who in their right mind would build New Orleans where it is? What were
the mathematical chances of Katrina and the damage inflicted?

ooops!

https://www.conservation.ca.gov/cgs/earthquakes/northridge

Scroll down to the map Castaic is where the severity starts fading from extreme
to merely very strong. The I5/14 interchange fell down and went boom -- again.
It was destroyed in the \'71 Sylmar quake and a new, improved version
constructed. I missed the \'71 but I was a frequent flyer between LA and Seattle
in \'94 and it was a real mess.

Yeah, but how do you, realistically, make those risk assessments?

It\'s one thing to look at a wager and the *mathematical* odds of
winning and evaluate your risk/exposure. You KNOW that there is
a 1:52 chance of drawing the ace of spades from a full, shuffled
deck. Not 1:53 or 1:4.

But, all of this geological/natural stuff is \"hopeful\" analysis
of odds. There\'s no real science that PROVES their numbers are
correct.

And, even if you assume them to be correct, how do you do the
expected value computation? What\'s the likelihood of $X of
damage *if* this event occurs? What\'s a human life worth?
What are the opportunity costs if certain services are off-lined
for a period of N months?

Gotta wonder how the actuaries at the insurers make these
same assessments from the other side of the table!

 

[rbowman]

On 09/12/2022 10:18 AM, Don Y wrote:

A second device could follow the harvester in much the same way that
a grain car does for some crops.

Or a fleet... I posted a couple of videos. A 12 row combine keeps the
\'second device\' damn busy transferring just the corn.

> Or, someone will figure out a use for the \"refuse\".

https://necornstalk.com/why-most-farmers-dont-plow-their-fields/
https://sustainable-secure-food-blog.com/2019/01/22/why-do-some-farm-fields-after-harvest/

There is a use. Till or no-till the residue enriches the soil. A
cornstalk doesn\'t magically construct itself from thin air. Sure you can
use it for biomass but TANSTAAFL.

> Or, someone will decide that corn isn\'t an efficient crop to grow/harvest.

What would the world do without high fructose corn syrup?

https://www.worldatlas.com/articles/pg-editing-the-20-biggest-agricultural-products-of-the-united-states.html

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/King_Corn_(film)

That\'s an interesting movie. One of the first things the city kids learn
is dent corn isn\'t very edible without grinding it to meal or making
hominy.

Thinking you can imagine the ultimate solution without numeric constraints
on the problem is an exercise in futility; WHEN the problem appears, a
solution will manifest!

So say the cornucopians... (no pun intended)

 

[rbowman]

On 09/12/2022 10:51 AM, Dean Hoffman wrote:
> \"Plastics aren’t entirely made up of synthetic substances – in fact, corn-based plastics have become very popular in recent years as companies strive to find methods for reducing the environmental impact of plastics. Corn-based plastics use up to 68% less fossil fuels in production than traditional plastics, and are estimated to emit 55% less greenhouse gases. Additionally, many of these plastics are also biodegradable. You’ll find corn plastics used in food containers and plastic food packaging, disposable dishware and gift cards.\"

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Furfural

After the oil embargo there were attempts to replace some of thermoset
molding compound with furan. It didn\'t go well.

https://www.thedetroitbureau.com/2022/01/the-rearview-mirror-henry-fords-plastic-fantastic-car/

The soybean car was a bridge too far but Ford was using soybean derived
plastic for trim moldings, gearshift knobs and so forth in the \'30s.

 

[Don Y]

On 9/12/2022 1:41 PM, Dean Hoffman wrote:

On Monday, September 12, 2022 at 11:59:45 AM UTC-5, Don Y wrote:

Yes, but I suspect \"other uses\" don\'t have the same \"edibility\" criteria
that goes with corn grown as a foodstuff.

Is time of harvest as critical (\"running 24 hours a day for 10-12 days)?
Moisture content? Cosmetics? Pest infestation? etc.

I.e., you have different criteria as to what you are producing which can
lead to different solutions for harvest. Is corn for popping grown the
same way as sweet corn? Corn consumed by livestock? etc.

Harvesting 24/7 isn\'t going to happen at least around here. Guys need to
sleep . Some like to let the dew dry off in the morning also. They can
find other things to do in the meantime.

My high school was surrounded by corn -- a great way to ditch class and
NEVER be found! But, the farms were considerably smaller -- more like
subsistence farms (acres not thousands of acres). \"Big\" farms harvested
tree fruit.

There\'s a pretty good explanation here:
https://kansasfarmfoodconnection.org/spotlights/what-arey
-the-different-types-of-corn

They left out seed corn. That\'s different also. The seed corn plant behind
my house started their drying fans ten days ago or so. Seed corn is just
air dried with no heat as far as I know. It\'s harvested with corn pickers.
The whole ear, cob and all is trucked to the seed processing plant.

The farmers in my area raise mainly soybeans and corn. The beans ripen
first so farmers get the beans out then worry about the corn.

Don\'t they rotate what/where each crop is grown? Or, do they
rely on chemical enrichment to keep \"restoring\" the soil nutrients?

Timing of harvest is a balance between letting the corn dry in the field for
free vs. the worry of a wet fall or early snowstorm. Shelled corn needs to
be stored at around 14% moisture. The corn plants weaken considerably once
they do their job producing an ear of corn. A snow makes a real mess since
it comes with a strong wind many times. Guys usually don\'t wait. It\'s nice
if they can get the crop out, then disc and apply NH3 for the next year.

They can\'t apply it before November 1st. That lets the soil cool so the
NH3 doesn\'t activate for lack of a better word.

I don\'t know many that apply nitrogen through their irrigation systems.
That was a hot thing for awhile but didn\'t seem to be adopted widely. It
rains enough some summers here in central Nebraska that the corn could need
fertilizer but not water.

We worked on a process to *coat* seeds (herbicide? fertilizer?) but
I can\'t see how that could be economical -- except for special crops
or special conditions (it takes hours to coat a few hundred pounds).

Or, it could have just been a proof of principle (or even patent proof)
exercise waiting for a more practical means of deployment.