Claim That Covid-19 Came From Lab In China Completely Unfoun

[Ricky C]

On Tuesday, April 21, 2020 at 10:35:32 AM UTC-4, Tom Gardner wrote:

On 21/04/20 15:07, Ricky C wrote:
On Tuesday, April 21, 2020 at 5:14:44 AM UTC-4, Tom Gardner wrote:
On 21/04/20 00:37, Ricky C wrote:
Did the doctor go blind and can't see??? This is the 21st century. We
can do video calls on our cell phones now. Why would a doctor not be
able to examine a patient over the phone?

Only if the patient has a suitable device and can use it at the relevant
time.

You mean a smart phone? Or a friend/relative with a smart phone? I think in
the US smart phones are >90% of the phones used. Ok, so some small
percentage of the population can't use this. Some small percentage of the
population can't use a car to reach a doctor either.

Think it through...

Someone who doesn't have a smartphone won't be able to
operate it sufficiently well for it to be useful. The
owner would have to be right next to the user.

Over here we are required to stay more than 2m from
people not in our household.

See the incompatibility?

You are being absurdly pedantic. If you need to break the 6 foot rule, break it. That doesn't cause infection. It provides a path for it. It's not such a strict rule you can never change it.

What do people do who need more intimate care such as washing, feeding, etc. Do have to adopt someone into your family?

My mother will never have a smartphone, nor equivalent.

I guess it is far too much bother for you to help your mother with your
phone.

She is 98, and we are keeping outside contact to a minimum.

See the incompatibility mentioned above.

In addition, you are assuming I live anywhere near her.

Yep. I don't know what your real issues are. You haven't explained them. I think the idea of her not being able to visit is doctor seem to be overblown. I don't believe the state has shut down medical care.

If I'm really laid low by something, I may well not be in any state to
operate high tech. If I'm gasping for breath I'm not even sure I could make
myself heard when phoning for an ambulance.

Do you really think the ambulance and emergency room aren't available if you > need them?

Have you considered that I would have to phone for an
ambulance to get there? Then re-read my point.

WTF are you going on about??? Do you think the ambulance crew is going to maintain a 6 foot separation as they load her into the vehicle?

You just want to create problems it seems.

The guidelines are guidelines, not laws.

--

Rick C.

---+ Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
---+ Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

 

[Tom Gardner]

On 21/04/20 23:20, Ricky C wrote:

On Tuesday, April 21, 2020 at 10:35:32 AM UTC-4, Tom Gardner wrote:
On 21/04/20 15:07, Ricky C wrote:
On Tuesday, April 21, 2020 at 5:14:44 AM UTC-4, Tom Gardner wrote:
On 21/04/20 00:37, Ricky C wrote:
Did the doctor go blind and can't see??? This is the 21st century. We
can do video calls on our cell phones now. Why would a doctor not be
able to examine a patient over the phone?

Only if the patient has a suitable device and can use it at the relevant
time.

You mean a smart phone? Or a friend/relative with a smart phone? I think in
the US smart phones are >90% of the phones used. Ok, so some small
percentage of the population can't use this. Some small percentage of the
population can't use a car to reach a doctor either.

Think it through...

Someone who doesn't have a smartphone won't be able to
operate it sufficiently well for it to be useful. The
owner would have to be right next to the user.

Over here we are required to stay more than 2m from
people not in our household.

See the incompatibility?

You are being absurdly pedantic. If you need to break the 6 foot rule, break it. That doesn't cause infection. It provides a path for it. It's not such a strict rule you can never change it.

What do people do who need more intimate care such as washing, feeding, etc. Do have to adopt someone into your family?


My mother will never have a smartphone, nor equivalent.

I guess it is far too much bother for you to help your mother with your
phone.

She is 98, and we are keeping outside contact to a minimum.

See the incompatibility mentioned above.

In addition, you are assuming I live anywhere near her.

Yep. I don't know what your real issues are. You haven't explained them. I think the idea of her not being able to visit is doctor seem to be overblown. I don't believe the state has shut down medical care.


If I'm really laid low by something, I may well not be in any state to
operate high tech. If I'm gasping for breath I'm not even sure I could make
myself heard when phoning for an ambulance.

Do you really think the ambulance and emergency room aren't available if you > need them?

Have you considered that I would have to phone for an
ambulance to get there? Then re-read my point.

WTF are you going on about??? Do you think the ambulance crew is going to maintain a 6 foot separation as they load her into the vehicle?

You just want to create problems it seems.

The guidelines are guidelines, not laws.

You need to work on your reading and your comprehension.

That would be a starting point for combining words into
coherent sentences that bear some resemblance to the point
being made.

 

[Tom Gardner]

On 21/04/20 23:21, Ricky C wrote:
> Can you show me a statement by the WHO that says the disease wasn't eliminated in Wuhan?

If I did, the your statements on comp.arch.embedded lead me to believe you
couldn't be bothered to read it.

 

[Ricky C]

On Tuesday, April 21, 2020 at 10:40:29 AM UTC-4, Tom Gardner wrote:

On 21/04/20 15:14, Ricky C wrote:
On Tuesday, April 21, 2020 at 5:27:02 AM UTC-4, Tom Gardner wrote:
On 21/04/20 06:03, Bill Sloman wrote:
On Tuesday, April 21, 2020 at 11:34:44 AM UTC+10, dagmarg...@yahoo.com
wrote:
On Monday, April 20, 2020 at 7:31:55 PM UTC-4, Ricky C wrote:
On Monday, April 20, 2020 at 5:43:01 PM UTC-4, dagmarg...@yahoo.com
wrote:

What makes you think that when people come out of lockdown,
however long, that they won't get sick (same as without a
lockdown)?

They will if we exit the lock down too soon. If we wait until the
current case numbers are low enough we will be able to do the things
we weren't able to do in January and February and March... testing,
contact tracking and testing. Oh yeah, with MORE testing. Then we
do impose literal quarantine on anyone in contact with anyone
infected. Do it with the force of law, no exceptions.

That doesn't work. The virus will still be there, and most people
carrying it won't even know they have it.

James Arthur doesn't understand contact tracing. If you've been in
contact with somebody who was infectious (even if they didn't know it)
you get told to self isolate for 14 days after the contact.

Just so.

In the UK there is legislation that can compel people to isolate
themselves, but I haven't heard of it being used (yet). I wonder if it is
actually practical legislation.


"Flattening the curve" in China meant that they ended up with 4,632
deaths, and nobody seems to be dying of Covid-19 there any more.

Yet.

The IC study and previous flu epidemics have had multiple peaks, months
apart.

Do you understand the difference between a disease that is allowed to roam
the earth freely and one that is tracked and hunted down and killed???

China and South Korea have both reduced the number of infected to adequately
low numbers that they can reopen their businesses at least to some extent.
Once the virus is eliminated it can't come back other than from the outside.
They take adequate measures to assure the disease is not allowed to return
without being hunted down immediately.


Your big unproven assumption is that is can be completely "hunted
down and killed" or "eliminated". I, and the WHO amongst others,
don't believe that.

Without that, there /will/ be several waves of peaks, months apart.

You can believe what you want... and do.

Can you show me a statement by the WHO that says the disease wasn't eliminated in Wuhan?

--

Rick C.

--+- Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
--+- Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

 

[George Herold]

On Sunday, April 19, 2020 at 12:57:28 PM UTC-4, dagmarg...@yahoo.com wrote:

On Saturday, April 18, 2020 at 6:26:06 PM UTC-4, George Herold wrote:
On Saturday, April 18, 2020 at 5:12:39 PM UTC-4, dagmarg...@yahoo.com wrote:

Despite the deference to "scientists," I didn't see any scientific
arguments, merely "scientists" speculating, and their speculations
being tossed around non-scientifically by non-scientists.

ISTM it's a forensic matter rather than scientific. If China were
a free country, we'd simply scour their labs' collections for traces
of the Wuhan Scourge. If it's not there, the lab's excluded. And
we'd look at personnel records too, maybe, to find the first cases.
However, China won't allow it.

Absent that, it's entirely possible this group -- known to have been
studying coronavirus reservoirs in the wild -- collected SARS-CoV2,
then lost control. Or synthesized something, or collected, then
modified something wild, etc. Or that none of that happened.

There are manifold possibilities that can't be excluded -- it's a
mystery.

The NYU Shanghai prof's Twitter thread is full of gaping holes.


I agree. Say James, what news sources do you read? I find most news
almost impossible to read, because of the 'slant' of the source.
It's not that the 'slants' have gotten worse, but my tolerance is
much lower. (grumpy old man complex)

George H.

That's a good question about news sources. I had to think a bit to
re-trace my process.

In my youth I was exposed to some honest-to-goodness communist
propagandizing from directly across the Iron Curtain, which has affected
the way I process information later in life. I've seen Orwellian police
states personally and heard their official voices deny obvious truths.
And all of that has bred a keen sense for when I'm getting incomplete
information, straw-men, narratives, and rhetorical devices instead of
facts. I can usually spot con-men instantly, too. Same thing.

I think my staying-informed process consists essentially of collecting
seeds from wherever, suggesting possibly interesting happenings to
investigate. From there, I'll possibly read a few treatments of the
issue first to see what's being argued, then go directly to the source
so that I can evaluate the arguments being made.

When I go to the source and watch the actual person saying the actual
thing, or read the law itself, or proposed legislation, I often find
the popular reporting omits critical details, or flat-out
mischaracterizes or even misstates what was actually said.

So when reading an article in the popular press, I just read through
the slant gleaning objective facts. For example, this AP article says

Right, I agree with all that. But these days, I seem to glean more
anger than fact. (Reading the news pisses me off before I'm informed.)

" The punishment of eight doctors for “rumor-mongering,” broadcast
on national television on Jan. 2, sent a chill through the city’s
hospitals.

“Doctors in Wuhan were afraid,” said Dali Yang, a professor of Chinese
politics at the University of Chicago. “It was truly intimidation of
an entire profession.” "
https://apnews.com/68a9e1b91de4ffc166acd6012d82c2f9

Okay, on Jan. 2, China was aware of and suppressing news of their
epidemic. That's useful. But later, after making a balanced
presentation about why Chinese leaders might have wanted to avoid
public panic, the article takes a swipe at President Trump for the
same thing with no such mitigation. Orange Man is Bad, you see.
That's slant.

In pursuit of their Orange Man Bad thesis the AP article makes
ignorant statements about the U.S. response, such as "However, even
the public announcement on Jan. 20 left the U.S. nearly two months
to prepare for the pandemic."

The AP is clearly trying to argue that the U.S. failed to act, and paint
that on The Donald. But I already know the U.S. didn't have its first
known case until Jan. 21st -- by that measure we had exactly one day
to prepare for the pandemic. It's a lame argument. And I also know
that on Jan. 20th, Dr. Fauci had announced the National Institutes
of Health was already working on a vaccine for the coronavirus. That
doesn't sound like inaction or inattention to me. That sounds like our
officials were on high alert, working aggressively to counter the
threat. But the AP doesn't mention those things I already know,
important things devastating to their argument. So, I immediately know
the AP is cherry-picking, poorly-informed, or they're pitching me.

So, I try to dig out the facts wherever I can, read through the slant,
and reach a reasonable understanding of reality.

And never forget -- the most insidious power of the media is the power
to ignore. Whenever you're getting only the costs of a thing but not
the benefits, or only the benefits but not the cost, you're not being
informed, you're being played.

Yeah, or are we even asking the right questions.
As my fav podcast host Eric Weinstein asks, who decided on this
'frame' for the conversation?

You know what bothers me the most (at least at this particular moment)
we are selling our kids future for our current benefit.
As Phil H said on some other thread, the national debt is a fiction...
(well he said something like that anyway. :^)

Do you have any kids James? nieces or nephews

George H.

Cheers,
James Arthur

 

[whit3rd]

On Tuesday, April 21, 2020 at 10:47:42 AM UTC-7, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:

But the lockdown was supposed to "flatten the curve."

The curve doesn't matter?

Ah, at last you have a clue! The lives being threatened by the
disease matter, and a nonzero value means threat. The upward
trend matters because (in a new disease with no immunities)
the expected trend is exponential, and if the first derivative
(the slope) is positive, so are all the other derivatives.

There's a capability of healthcare that has limits (number of beds etc.),
and the count of active cases , on a timescale, could touch that limit,
meaning our healthcare system would be broken, in addition
to the viral ailment.

So, 'flatten the curve' makes sense in avoiding that breakdown.
Such a breakdown made ebola a very costly disease some years ago.

Yes, of course, the curve does not incorporate enough information to
deal with the disease, either on an individual basis, or throughout an urban area,
or on a national level, nor does it provide services like testing, life support,
financial assistance... it's a small tool with a few small uses. If you
want to scratch an itchy back... nope, it's not the curve that matters.

 

On Tuesday, April 21, 2020 at 12:12:30 PM UTC-4, Tom Gardner wrote:

On 21/04/20 15:57, dagmargoodboat@yahoo.com wrote:
On Tuesday, April 21, 2020 at 10:40:29 AM UTC-4, Tom Gardner wrote:

Your big unproven assumption is that is can be completely "hunted
down and killed" or "eliminated". I, and the WHO amongst others,
don't believe that.

Without that, there /will/ be several waves of peaks, months apart.

Right -- you're absolutely right. There's no way to hunt down something
lying hidden in the overwhelming majority of people harboring it. It's
everywhere, and like kudzu, privet, fire ants, and killer bees, it's not
going away. The genii's out of the bottle.

And yes of course there will be a resurgence when people start
circulating again -- it's unavoidable. So we manage it. Look for
vaccines. Test treatments. And we get back to work.

And the big unanswered (currently unanswerable) questions are
- what stages of relaxation are valid (by some defined criteria)
- what are the preconditions for relaxation
- what are the preconditions for re-imposition of restrictions

This is an uncommonly intelligent, responsible, timely discussion of
those issues, conducted with the doctor behind the antibody prevalence
studies in Santa Clara and Los Angeles counties.

Highlights:
- contact-tracing is infeasible at these prevalence levels
- details Santa Clara study method
- estimates COVID-19 case fatality rate ~= 0.1 to 0.2%, same as flu
- influenza mortality stats are lowered by the availability of vaccines;
w/o vaccines, flu CFR would be higher.
- recommends widespread serological studies
- hospital utilization level should guide re-opening efforts
- shutdown devastating to impoverished nations
https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2020/04/an-update-from-dr-b.php

Cheers,
James Arthur

 

On Tuesday, April 21, 2020 at 12:27:44 PM UTC-4, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:

On Tue, 21 Apr 2020 07:57:16 -0700 (PDT), dagmargoodboat@yahoo.com
wrote:

On Tuesday, April 21, 2020 at 10:40:29 AM UTC-4, Tom Gardner wrote:
On 21/04/20 15:14, Ricky C wrote:
On Tuesday, April 21, 2020 at 5:27:02 AM UTC-4, Tom Gardner wrote:
On 21/04/20 06:03, Bill Sloman wrote:
On Tuesday, April 21, 2020 at 11:34:44 AM UTC+10, dagmarg...@yahoo.com
wrote:
On Monday, April 20, 2020 at 7:31:55 PM UTC-4, Ricky C wrote:
On Monday, April 20, 2020 at 5:43:01 PM UTC-4, dagmarg...@yahoo.com
wrote:

What makes you think that when people come out of lockdown,
however long, that they won't get sick (same as without a
lockdown)?

They will if we exit the lock down too soon. If we wait until the
current case numbers are low enough we will be able to do the things
we weren't able to do in January and February and March... testing,
contact tracking and testing. Oh yeah, with MORE testing. Then we
do impose literal quarantine on anyone in contact with anyone
infected. Do it with the force of law, no exceptions.

That doesn't work. The virus will still be there, and most people
carrying it won't even know they have it.

James Arthur doesn't understand contact tracing. If you've been in
contact with somebody who was infectious (even if they didn't know it)
you get told to self isolate for 14 days after the contact.

Just so.

In the UK there is legislation that can compel people to isolate
themselves, but I haven't heard of it being used (yet). I wonder if it is
actually practical legislation.


"Flattening the curve" in China meant that they ended up with 4,632
deaths, and nobody seems to be dying of Covid-19 there any more.

Yet.

The IC study and previous flu epidemics have had multiple peaks, months
apart.

Do you understand the difference between a disease that is allowed to roam
the earth freely and one that is tracked and hunted down and killed???

China and South Korea have both reduced the number of infected to adequately
low numbers that they can reopen their businesses at least to some extent.
Once the virus is eliminated it can't come back other than from the outside.
They take adequate measures to assure the disease is not allowed to return
without being hunted down immediately.


Your big unproven assumption is that is can be completely "hunted
down and killed" or "eliminated". I, and the WHO amongst others,
don't believe that.

Without that, there /will/ be several waves of peaks, months apart.

Right -- you're absolutely right. There's no way to hunt down something
lying hidden in the overwhelming majority of people harboring it. It's
everywhere, and like kudzu, privet, fire ants, and killer bees, it's not
going away. The genii's out of the bottle.

But seasonal colds and flu do go away. This one is almost gone from a
lot of countries.

I don't think that's correct. Prevalence falls dramatically
out-of-season, but AIUI they persist in the population (people
still get flu mid-summer, just not as often) and resurge when
conditions favor (promote / facilitate) effective propagation.

And yes of course there will be a resurgence when people start
circulating again -- it's unavoidable. So we manage it. Look for
vaccines. Test treatments. And we get back to work.

I'm at work!

Cool! Me too!

Cheers,
James

 

[John Doe]

whit3rd <whit3rd@gmail.com> wrote:

jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:

But the lockdown was supposed to "flatten the curve."

The curve doesn't matter?

Ah, at last you have a clue! The lives being threatened by the
disease matter, and a nonzero value means threat.

Over twice as many people die from the flu than so far have died
from the coronavirus.

There's a capability of healthcare that has limits (number of beds
etc.), and the count of active cases , on a timescale, could touch
that limit, meaning our healthcare system would be broken, in
addition to the viral ailment.

Only in a vacuum.

Florida has more available/unused hospital beds now than it had
before the coronavirus.

The state of Wyoming has a grand total of TWO coronavirus deaths.

People in flyover states... "It's a bird, it's a plane. No, it's a
bunch of coronavirus".

As time goes on, personal protective equipment becomes available,
exponentially. Some very intelligent people all over the country are
working on solutions and ramping up production of needed products.

 

[keith wright]

On Tuesday, 21 April 2020 17:55:14 UTC-7, John Doe wrote:
....

Over twice as many people die from the flu than so far have died
from the coronavirus.

Covid-19 is making a good attempt at overtaking the flu in a short time unless we do something about it:

This is a plot of the weekly deaths in New York compared to those from the flu.

https://ibb.co/R99KRVZ

from: https://medium.com/swlh/misinformation-goes-viral-1aad951e4492

....

 

[Ricky C]

On Tuesday, April 21, 2020 at 10:09:28 PM UTC-4, keith wright wrote:

On Tuesday, 21 April 2020 17:55:14 UTC-7, John Doe wrote:
...
Over twice as many people die from the flu than so far have died
from the coronavirus.

Covid-19 is making a good attempt at overtaking the flu in a short time unless we do something about it:

This is a plot of the weekly deaths in New York compared to those from the flu.

https://ibb.co/R99KRVZ

from: https://medium.com/swlh/misinformation-goes-viral-1aad951e4492

...

I don't get it. So COVID-19 lumps all it's victims into a short span rather than spreading them over the year. Sounds convenient to me.

The flu makes you wait all year long. Try COVID-19, the convenient killer. Now faster acting, halving your time in the ICU.



Do you guys think Larkin is serious about the questions he asks? He certainly appears to be an obnoxious troll. Maybe he really doesn't understand people enough (along with science) to appreciate that he questions sound like he is baiting people. He did say he is autistic. Is he really that unaware of how other people feel?

No wonder he likes Trump.

--

Rick C.

--++ Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
--++ Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

 

On Tue, 21 Apr 2020 17:27:14 -0700 (PDT), dagmargoodboat@yahoo.com
wrote:

On Tuesday, April 21, 2020 at 12:27:44 PM UTC-4, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Tue, 21 Apr 2020 07:57:16 -0700 (PDT), dagmargoodboat@yahoo.com
wrote:

On Tuesday, April 21, 2020 at 10:40:29 AM UTC-4, Tom Gardner wrote:
On 21/04/20 15:14, Ricky C wrote:
On Tuesday, April 21, 2020 at 5:27:02 AM UTC-4, Tom Gardner wrote:
On 21/04/20 06:03, Bill Sloman wrote:
On Tuesday, April 21, 2020 at 11:34:44 AM UTC+10, dagmarg...@yahoo.com
wrote:
On Monday, April 20, 2020 at 7:31:55 PM UTC-4, Ricky C wrote:
On Monday, April 20, 2020 at 5:43:01 PM UTC-4, dagmarg...@yahoo.com
wrote:

What makes you think that when people come out of lockdown,
however long, that they won't get sick (same as without a
lockdown)?

They will if we exit the lock down too soon. If we wait until the
current case numbers are low enough we will be able to do the things
we weren't able to do in January and February and March... testing,
contact tracking and testing. Oh yeah, with MORE testing. Then we
do impose literal quarantine on anyone in contact with anyone
infected. Do it with the force of law, no exceptions.

That doesn't work. The virus will still be there, and most people
carrying it won't even know they have it.

James Arthur doesn't understand contact tracing. If you've been in
contact with somebody who was infectious (even if they didn't know it)
you get told to self isolate for 14 days after the contact.

Just so.

In the UK there is legislation that can compel people to isolate
themselves, but I haven't heard of it being used (yet). I wonder if it is
actually practical legislation.


"Flattening the curve" in China meant that they ended up with 4,632
deaths, and nobody seems to be dying of Covid-19 there any more.

Yet.

The IC study and previous flu epidemics have had multiple peaks, months
apart.

Do you understand the difference between a disease that is allowed to roam
the earth freely and one that is tracked and hunted down and killed???

China and South Korea have both reduced the number of infected to adequately
low numbers that they can reopen their businesses at least to some extent.
Once the virus is eliminated it can't come back other than from the outside.
They take adequate measures to assure the disease is not allowed to return
without being hunted down immediately.


Your big unproven assumption is that is can be completely "hunted
down and killed" or "eliminated". I, and the WHO amongst others,
don't believe that.

Without that, there /will/ be several waves of peaks, months apart.

Right -- you're absolutely right. There's no way to hunt down something
lying hidden in the overwhelming majority of people harboring it. It's
everywhere, and like kudzu, privet, fire ants, and killer bees, it's not
going away. The genii's out of the bottle.

But seasonal colds and flu do go away. This one is almost gone from a
lot of countries.

I don't think that's correct. Prevalence falls dramatically
out-of-season, but AIUI they persist in the population (people
still get flu mid-summer, just not as often) and resurge when
conditions favor (promote / facilitate) effective propagation.

If every cold and flu virus lingered forever, we'd all be dead. We'd
get 50 infections at a time all year.

I wonder why we don't.

And yes of course there will be a resurgence when people start
circulating again -- it's unavoidable. So we manage it. Look for
vaccines. Test treatments. And we get back to work.

I'm at work!

Cool! Me too!

Cheers,
James

--

John Larkin Highland Technology, Inc

Science teaches us to doubt.

Claude Bernard

 

[Bill Sloman]

On Wednesday, April 22, 2020 at 12:07:56 PM UTC+10, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:

On Tue, 21 Apr 2020 17:27:14 -0700 (PDT), dagmargoodboat@yahoo.com
wrote:

On Tuesday, April 21, 2020 at 12:27:44 PM UTC-4, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Tue, 21 Apr 2020 07:57:16 -0700 (PDT), dagmargoodboat@yahoo.com
wrote:

On Tuesday, April 21, 2020 at 10:40:29 AM UTC-4, Tom Gardner wrote:
On 21/04/20 15:14, Ricky C wrote:
On Tuesday, April 21, 2020 at 5:27:02 AM UTC-4, Tom Gardner wrote:
On 21/04/20 06:03, Bill Sloman wrote:
On Tuesday, April 21, 2020 at 11:34:44 AM UTC+10, dagmarg...@yahoo.com
wrote:
On Monday, April 20, 2020 at 7:31:55 PM UTC-4, Ricky C wrote:
On Monday, April 20, 2020 at 5:43:01 PM UTC-4, dagmarg...@yahoo.com
wrote:

What makes you think that when people come out of lockdown,
however long, that they won't get sick (same as without a
lockdown)?

They will if we exit the lock down too soon. If we wait until the
current case numbers are low enough we will be able to do the things
we weren't able to do in January and February and March... testing,
contact tracking and testing. Oh yeah, with MORE testing. Then we
do impose literal quarantine on anyone in contact with anyone
infected. Do it with the force of law, no exceptions.

That doesn't work. The virus will still be there, and most people
carrying it won't even know they have it.

James Arthur doesn't understand contact tracing. If you've been in
contact with somebody who was infectious (even if they didn't know it)
you get told to self isolate for 14 days after the contact.

Just so.

In the UK there is legislation that can compel people to isolate
themselves, but I haven't heard of it being used (yet). I wonder if it is
actually practical legislation.


"Flattening the curve" in China meant that they ended up with 4,632
deaths, and nobody seems to be dying of Covid-19 there any more..

Yet.

The IC study and previous flu epidemics have had multiple peaks, months
apart.

Do you understand the difference between a disease that is allowed to roam
the earth freely and one that is tracked and hunted down and killed???

China and South Korea have both reduced the number of infected to adequately
low numbers that they can reopen their businesses at least to some extent.
Once the virus is eliminated it can't come back other than from the outside.
They take adequate measures to assure the disease is not allowed to return
without being hunted down immediately.


Your big unproven assumption is that is can be completely "hunted
down and killed" or "eliminated". I, and the WHO amongst others,
don't believe that.

Without that, there /will/ be several waves of peaks, months apart.

Right -- you're absolutely right. There's no way to hunt down something
lying hidden in the overwhelming majority of people harboring it. It's
everywhere, and like kudzu, privet, fire ants, and killer bees, it's not
going away. The genii's out of the bottle.

But seasonal colds and flu do go away. This one is almost gone from a
lot of countries.

I don't think that's correct. Prevalence falls dramatically
out-of-season, but AIUI they persist in the population (people
still get flu mid-summer, just not as often) and resurge when
conditions favor (promote / facilitate) effective propagation.

If every cold and flu virus lingered forever, we'd all be dead. We'd
get 50 infections at a time all year.

I wonder why we don't.

It's called the immune system. Trying reading something about it, sometime.

You will be amazed, if you have the attention span to keep reading without regular doses of flattery. Since you will get reminded of all of the idiotic things you have posted on the subject, you would find the experience anything but flattering.

The reason why we keep on getting new infections - maybe one ever few years - is that the viruses involved mutate very frequently, and the one's that can still infect you have changed enough that your immune system doesn't recognise them any more, and has to find a new antibody to label them as foreign, dangerous and in need of termination. This takes a couple of days.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

 

[Bill Sloman]

On Wednesday, April 22, 2020 at 10:10:26 AM UTC+10, dagmarg...@yahoo.com wrote:

On Tuesday, April 21, 2020 at 12:12:30 PM UTC-4, Tom Gardner wrote:
On 21/04/20 15:57, dagmargoodboat@yahoo.com wrote:
On Tuesday, April 21, 2020 at 10:40:29 AM UTC-4, Tom Gardner wrote:

Your big unproven assumption is that is can be completely "hunted
down and killed" or "eliminated". I, and the WHO amongst others,
don't believe that.

Without that, there /will/ be several waves of peaks, months apart.

Right -- you're absolutely right. There's no way to hunt down something
lying hidden in the overwhelming majority of people harboring it. It's
everywhere, and like kudzu, privet, fire ants, and killer bees, it's not
going away. The genii's out of the bottle.

And yes of course there will be a resurgence when people start
circulating again -- it's unavoidable. So we manage it. Look for
vaccines. Test treatments. And we get back to work.

And the big unanswered (currently unanswerable) questions are
- what stages of relaxation are valid (by some defined criteria)
- what are the preconditions for relaxation
- what are the preconditions for re-imposition of restrictions

This is an uncommonly intelligent, responsible, timely discussion of
those issues, conducted with the doctor behind the antibody prevalence
studies in Santa Clara and Los Angeles counties.

Highlights:
- contact-tracing is infeasible at these prevalence levels
- details Santa Clara study method
- estimates COVID-19 case fatality rate ~= 0.1 to 0.2%, same as flu
- influenza mortality stats are lowered by the availability of vaccines;
w/o vaccines, flu CFR would be higher.
- recommends widespread serological studies
- hospital utilization level should guide re-opening efforts
- shutdown devastating to impoverished nations
https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2020/04/an-update-from-dr-b.php

It does make the point that the testers got the result that they wanted and expected.

Stephen J Gould's book "The Mismeasure of Man" does go into the way that experimenter bias can influence published results.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

 

[Bill Sloman]

On Wednesday, April 22, 2020 at 10:55:14 AM UTC+10, John Doe wrote:

whit3rd <whit3rd@gmail.com> wrote:

jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:

But the lockdown was supposed to "flatten the curve."

The curve doesn't matter?

Ah, at last you have a clue! The lives being threatened by the
disease matter, and a nonzero value means threat.

Over twice as many people die from the flu than so far have died
from the coronavirus.

Over a much longer period.

There's a capability of healthcare that has limits (number of beds
etc.), and the count of active cases , on a timescale, could touch
that limit, meaning our healthcare system would be broken, in
addition to the viral ailment.

Only in a vacuum.

The healthcare systems in Italy, Spain and New York have looked pretty broken.

Florida has more available/unused hospital beds now than it had
before the coronavirus.

So the epidemic hasn't got there yet.

> The state of Wyoming has a grand total of TWO coronavirus deaths.

So the epidemic hasn't got there yet.

People in flyover states... "It's a bird, it's a plane. No, it's a
bunch of coronavirus".

As time goes on, personal protective equipment becomes available,
exponentially. Some very intelligent people all over the country are
working on solutions and ramping up production of needed products.

Unfortunately none of them seem to be in charge of enforcing lock-down or organising contact tracing.

The US performance at containing the epidemic has been dire - down there with Spain and Italy. New York State has had three times as many confirmed Covid-19 infections per million people as Spain and Italy.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

There are now five states - and the District of Columbia - which have had more, and Trump is encouraging people to ease up on lock-downs. Make America greatly infected?

John Doe does seem to be a Flyguy-level imbecile. But then he always did.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

 

[whit3rd]

On Tuesday, April 21, 2020 at 5:55:14 PM UTC-7, John Doe wrote:

Over twice as many people die from the flu than so far have died
from the coronavirus.

Meaningless without matching timescales.

There's a capability of healthcare that has limits (number of beds
etc.), and the count of active cases , on a timescale, could touch
that limit, meaning our healthcare system would be broken, in
addition to the viral ailment.

Only in a vacuum.

Yes, this is a planet orbiting in a vacuum.
Was that supposed to be meaningful?

Florida has more available/unused hospital beds now than it had
before the coronavirus.

Is that because they've stopped a lot of routine healthcare like hospitals here?

My dentist appointment, made over a month ago, has been rescheduled to late May.

 

[John Doe]

A lazy troll...

--
whit3rd <whit3rd@gmail.com> wrote:

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Subject: Re: Claim That Covid-19 Came From Lab In China Completely Unfounded, Scientists Say
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On Tuesday, April 21, 2020 at 5:55:14 PM UTC-7, John Doe wrote:

Over twice as many people die from the flu than so far have died
from the coronavirus.

Meaningless without matching timescales.

There's a capability of healthcare that has limits (number of beds
etc.), and the count of active cases , on a timescale, could touch
that limit, meaning our healthcare system would be broken, in
addition to the viral ailment.

Only in a vacuum.

Yes, this is a planet orbiting in a vacuum.
Was that supposed to be meaningful?


Florida has more available/unused hospital beds now than it had
before the coronavirus.

Is that because they've stopped a lot of routine healthcare like hospitals here?

My dentist appointment, made over a month ago, has been rescheduled to late May.

 

[John Doe]

Ricky C <gnuarm.deletethisbit@gmail.com> wrote:

whit3rd wrote:
John Doe wrote:

Over twice as many people die from the flu than so far have died
from the coronavirus.

Meaningless without matching timescales.

He's saying if we exit the lock down we can play catchup!

I'm saying you are a blathering idiot.

If you want to provide the timescale, go for it...

 

[Bill Sloman]

On Wednesday, April 22, 2020 at 2:26:51 PM UTC+10, John Doe wrote:

Bill Sloman <bill.sloman@ieee.org> wrote:
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Subject: Re: Claim That Covid-19 Came From Lab In China Completely Unfounded, Scientists Say
From: Bill Sloman <bill.sloman@ieee.org
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On Wednesday, April 22, 2020 at 10:55:14 AM UTC+10, John Doe wrote:
whit3rd <whit3rd@gmail.com> wrote:

jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:

But the lockdown was supposed to "flatten the curve."

The curve doesn't matter?

Ah, at last you have a clue! The lives being threatened by the
disease matter, and a nonzero value means threat.

Over twice as many people die from the flu than so far have died
from the coronavirus.

Over a much longer period.

There's a capability of healthcare that has limits (number of beds
etc.), and the count of active cases , on a timescale, could touch
that limit, meaning our healthcare system would be broken, in
addition to the viral ailment.

Only in a vacuum.

The healthcare systems in Italy, Spain and New York have looked pretty broken.

Florida has more available/unused hospital beds now than it had
before the coronavirus.

So the epidemic hasn't got there yet.

The state of Wyoming has a grand total of TWO coronavirus deaths.

So the epidemic hasn't got there yet.

People in flyover states... "It's a bird, it's a plane. No, it's a
bunch of coronavirus".

As time goes on, personal protective equipment becomes available,
exponentially. Some very intelligent people all over the country are
working on solutions and ramping up production of needed products.

Unfortunately none of them seem to be in charge of enforcing lock-down or organising contact tracing.

The US performance at containing the epidemic has been dire - down there with Spain and Italy. New York State has had three times as many confirmed Covid-19 infections per million people as Spain and Italy.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

There are now five states - and the District of Columbia - which have had more, and Trump is encouraging people to ease up on lock-downs. Make America greatly infected?

John Doe does seem to be a Flyguy-level imbecile. But then he always did.

Regular Australian troll...

John Doe is a top-posting troll. I can fix the top-posting, but curing him of being a troll is beyond my powers. Covid-19 may be able to manage it.

Calling other people trolls is troll-like behaviour, but John Doe is a special case - its' more like calling a spade a bloody shovel.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

 

[John Doe]

Regular Australian troll...

--
Bill Sloman <bill.sloman@ieee.org> wrote:

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On Wednesday, April 22, 2020 at 10:55:14 AM UTC+10, John Doe wrote:
whit3rd <whit3rd@gmail.com> wrote:

jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:

But the lockdown was supposed to "flatten the curve."

The curve doesn't matter?

Ah, at last you have a clue! The lives being threatened by the
disease matter, and a nonzero value means threat.

Over twice as many people die from the flu than so far have died
from the coronavirus.

Over a much longer period.

There's a capability of healthcare that has limits (number of beds
etc.), and the count of active cases , on a timescale, could touch
that limit, meaning our healthcare system would be broken, in
addition to the viral ailment.

Only in a vacuum.

The healthcare systems in Italy, Spain and New York have looked pretty broken.

Florida has more available/unused hospital beds now than it had
before the coronavirus.

So the epidemic hasn't got there yet.

The state of Wyoming has a grand total of TWO coronavirus deaths.

So the epidemic hasn't got there yet.

People in flyover states... "It's a bird, it's a plane. No, it's a
bunch of coronavirus".

As time goes on, personal protective equipment becomes available,
exponentially. Some very intelligent people all over the country are
working on solutions and ramping up production of needed products.

Unfortunately none of them seem to be in charge of enforcing lock-down or organising contact tracing.

The US performance at containing the epidemic has been dire - down there with Spain and Italy. New York State has had three times as many confirmed Covid-19 infections per million people as Spain and Italy.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

There are now five states - and the District of Columbia - which have had more, and Trump is encouraging people to ease up on lock-downs. Make America greatly infected?

John Doe does seem to be a Flyguy-level imbecile. But then he always did.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney