Claim That Covid-19 Came From Lab In China Completely Unfoun

[John Larkin]

On Sun, 19 Apr 2020 00:45:20 -0000 (UTC), John Doe
<always.look@message.header> wrote:

John Larkin wrote:

"Tom Del Rosso" wrote:

I didn't know you had to be a scientist to determine that. But
it was a lab if a food market is a lab.

Amazing how ancient people in the middle east figured out that
some things are not safe to eat and the Chinese still haven't.

The Japanese discovered a lot of sanitary stuff before bacteria
were imagined.

Could be, but the Japanese aren't the Chinese.

Yes, I know "they all look alike".

Actually, "they" don't.

--

John Larkin Highland Technology, Inc
picosecond timing precision measurement

jlarkin att highlandtechnology dott com
http://www.highlandtechnology.com

 

[Phil Hobbs]

On 2020-04-20 13:26, dagmargoodboat@yahoo.com wrote:

On Sunday, April 19, 2020 at 2:10:58 PM UTC-4, Phil Hobbs wrote:
On 2020-04-19 13:16, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Sun, 19 Apr 2020 10:06:57 -0700 (PDT), dagmargoodboat@yahoo.com
wrote:

On Saturday, April 18, 2020 at 8:20:30 PM UTC-4, John Larkin wrote:
On Sat, 18 Apr 2020 17:04:26 -0700 (PDT), whit3rd <whit3rd@gmail.com
wrote:

On Saturday, April 18, 2020 at 3:45:37 PM UTC-7, John Larkin wrote:

There are death projections that cover a 20:1 range.

From folk with credible models, and for the same region and time period?

One of them is possibly credible. We just don't know which one.

I once had a model of a Ferrari. It wasn't anything like an actual
Ferrari.

But then it didn't come out of a computer -- if it had come out of
a computer it wouldda been just like an actual Ferrari. Because
computers.

Grins,
James

There's a joke that if you want 10 opinions on economics, ask 5
economists.

There's a wonderful article in this morning's NY Times by an
economist. He argues both sides of an issue and comes to no
conclusions. His trained professional skill is ambiguity.

Someone remind me, why do we have economists?




My Dad used to say that he wanted to hire a one-armed economist. People
who didn't know the wheeze would ask why: "I'm sick of being told, 'on
the one hand this, on the other hand that.'"

I was wading through a list of Ronald Reagan's quips last night, and
that one was in there

Another: "An economist is someone who sees something that works in
practice, and wonders if it would work in theory." -- Ronald Reagan

BONUS:
“We have 2 classes of forecasters: Those who don't know . . . and
those who don't know they don't know. “ - John Kenneth Galbraith

How has French revolution affected world economic growth? Too early to
say.

That was Chou En-Lai's, I think. (IIRC Chou was asked whether the
French Revolution was a good thing.)

Did you hear of the economist who dove into his swimming pool and broke
his neck? He forgot to seasonally adjust.

There were two economists who were shipwrecked on a desert island. They
had no money but over the next three years, they made millions of
dollars selling their hats to each other.

Two economists were sitting at a nudist colony. The one said, "Have
you read Marx?" The other says, "It's these wicker chairs."

That doesn't sound like Reagan's style, at least not in public.

Three econometricians went out hunting and came across a large deer.
The first econometrician fired but missed by a meter to the left. The
second econometrician fired but missed by a meter to the right. The
third econometrician didn’t fire but shouted in triumph, “We got it!
We got it!”

Cheers,
James

Fun.

Cheers

Phil Hobbs

--
Dr Philip C D Hobbs
Principal Consultant
ElectroOptical Innovations LLC / Hobbs ElectroOptics
Optics, Electro-optics, Photonics, Analog Electronics
Briarcliff Manor NY 10510

http://electrooptical.net
http://hobbs-eo.com

 

[Phil Hobbs]

On 2020-04-20 14:38, John Larkin wrote:

On Mon, 20 Apr 2020 10:26:15 -0700 (PDT), dagmargoodboat@yahoo.com
wrote:

On Sunday, April 19, 2020 at 2:10:58 PM UTC-4, Phil Hobbs wrote:
On 2020-04-19 13:16, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Sun, 19 Apr 2020 10:06:57 -0700 (PDT), dagmargoodboat@yahoo.com
wrote:

On Saturday, April 18, 2020 at 8:20:30 PM UTC-4, John Larkin wrote:
On Sat, 18 Apr 2020 17:04:26 -0700 (PDT), whit3rd <whit3rd@gmail.com
wrote:

On Saturday, April 18, 2020 at 3:45:37 PM UTC-7, John Larkin wrote:

There are death projections that cover a 20:1 range.

From folk with credible models, and for the same region and time period?

One of them is possibly credible. We just don't know which one.

I once had a model of a Ferrari. It wasn't anything like an actual
Ferrari.

But then it didn't come out of a computer -- if it had come out of
a computer it wouldda been just like an actual Ferrari. Because
computers.

Grins,
James

There's a joke that if you want 10 opinions on economics, ask 5
economists.

There's a wonderful article in this morning's NY Times by an
economist. He argues both sides of an issue and comes to no
conclusions. His trained professional skill is ambiguity.

Someone remind me, why do we have economists?




My Dad used to say that he wanted to hire a one-armed economist. People
who didn't know the wheeze would ask why: "I'm sick of being told, 'on
the one hand this, on the other hand that.'"

I was wading through a list of Ronald Reagan's quips last night, and
that one was in there

Another: "An economist is someone who sees something that works in
practice, and wonders if it would work in theory." -- Ronald Reagan

BONUS:
“We have 2 classes of forecasters: Those who don't know . . . and
those who don't know they don't know. “ - John Kenneth Galbraith

How has French revolution affected world economic growth? Too early to
say.

Did you hear of the economist who dove into his swimming pool and broke
his neck? He forgot to seasonally adjust.

There were two economists who were shipwrecked on a desert island. They
had no money but over the next three years, they made millions of
dollars selling their hats to each other.

Two economists were sitting at a nudist colony. The one said, "Have
you read Marx?" The other says, "It's these wicker chairs."

Three econometricians went out hunting and came across a large deer.
The first econometrician fired but missed by a meter to the left. The
second econometrician fired but missed by a meter to the right. The
third econometrician didn’t fire but shouted in triumph, “We got it!
We got it!”

Cheers,
James

Go ahead and joke. What the Fed and the Treasury have been doing is
serious. They have been playing the markets and riding the tiger's
back and the tiger is getting hungry.

Well, the state has taken over the means of production.

Cheers

Phil Hobbs


--
Dr Philip C D Hobbs
Principal Consultant
ElectroOptical Innovations LLC / Hobbs ElectroOptics
Optics, Electro-optics, Photonics, Analog Electronics
Briarcliff Manor NY 10510

http://electrooptical.net
http://hobbs-eo.com

 

[whit3rd]

On Monday, April 20, 2020 at 11:38:26 AM UTC-7, John Larkin wrote:

Go ahead and joke. What the Fed and the Treasury have been doing is
serious. They have been playing the markets and riding the tiger's
back and the tiger is getting hungry.

The most immediate expenditures, on unemployment and relief during
the lockdown, are almost exactly credit, extended to (everyone)
but eventually to be paid back, in taxation. It's inevitable,
those Trump tax cuts you liked had to be a brief anomaly.

The value of this, though, is that a lot of people with marginal jobs and
savings will get the credit they need without a mess of middlemen getting
forms filled out. To keep a lockdown in place, and save lives, you have
to forestall desperation among folk obeying social-distance rules.

 

On Monday, April 20, 2020 at 2:38:26 PM UTC-4, John Larkin wrote:

On Mon, 20 Apr 2020 10:26:15 -0700 (PDT), dagmargoodboat@yahoo.com
wrote:

On Sunday, April 19, 2020 at 2:10:58 PM UTC-4, Phil Hobbs wrote:
On 2020-04-19 13:16, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Sun, 19 Apr 2020 10:06:57 -0700 (PDT), dagmargoodboat@yahoo.com
wrote:

On Saturday, April 18, 2020 at 8:20:30 PM UTC-4, John Larkin wrote:
On Sat, 18 Apr 2020 17:04:26 -0700 (PDT), whit3rd <whit3rd@gmail.com
wrote:

On Saturday, April 18, 2020 at 3:45:37 PM UTC-7, John Larkin wrote:

There are death projections that cover a 20:1 range.

From folk with credible models, and for the same region and time period?

One of them is possibly credible. We just don't know which one.

I once had a model of a Ferrari. It wasn't anything like an actual
Ferrari.

But then it didn't come out of a computer -- if it had come out of
a computer it wouldda been just like an actual Ferrari. Because
computers.

Grins,
James

There's a joke that if you want 10 opinions on economics, ask 5
economists.

There's a wonderful article in this morning's NY Times by an
economist. He argues both sides of an issue and comes to no
conclusions. His trained professional skill is ambiguity.

Someone remind me, why do we have economists?




My Dad used to say that he wanted to hire a one-armed economist. People
who didn't know the wheeze would ask why: "I'm sick of being told, 'on
the one hand this, on the other hand that.'"

I was wading through a list of Ronald Reagan's quips last night, and
that one was in there

Another: "An economist is someone who sees something that works in
practice, and wonders if it would work in theory." -- Ronald Reagan

BONUS:
“We have 2 classes of forecasters: Those who don't know . . . and
those who don't know they don't know. “ - John Kenneth Galbraith

How has French revolution affected world economic growth? Too early to
say.

Did you hear of the economist who dove into his swimming pool and broke
his neck? He forgot to seasonally adjust.

There were two economists who were shipwrecked on a desert island. They
had no money but over the next three years, they made millions of
dollars selling their hats to each other.

Two economists were sitting at a nudist colony. The one said, "Have
you read Marx?" The other says, "It's these wicker chairs."

Three econometricians went out hunting and came across a large deer.
The first econometrician fired but missed by a meter to the left. The
second econometrician fired but missed by a meter to the right. The
third econometrician didn’t fire but shouted in triumph, “We got it!
We got it!”


Go ahead and joke. What the Fed and the Treasury have been doing is
serious. They have been playing the markets and riding the tiger's
back and the tiger is getting hungry.

I expect we're in for some nasty inflation as a best-case. But years
ago I was in Italy as their irrationally exuberant spending came home
to roost, when a handful of well-circulated candy for change replaced
worthless coinage at the Autostrada toll booths. Everything was
crumbling, prices rising every day, yet our hosts still partied, flung
pasta acrobatically Italian-style at dinner, skied, drove like maniacs.
I concluded that Rome may have fallen, but then there was Italy.
I.e., we can still have fun, can't we?

Cheers,
James

 

On Monday, April 20, 2020 at 3:10:42 PM UTC-4, whit3rd wrote:

On Monday, April 20, 2020 at 11:38:26 AM UTC-7, John Larkin wrote:

Go ahead and joke. What the Fed and the Treasury have been doing is
serious. They have been playing the markets and riding the tiger's
back and the tiger is getting hungry.

The most immediate expenditures, on unemployment and relief during
the lockdown, are almost exactly credit, extended to (everyone)
but eventually to be paid back, in taxation. It's inevitable,
those Trump tax cuts you liked had to be a brief anomaly.

The problem is, of course, that the government spends too much.

"Government always finds a need for whatever money it gets."
--Ronald Reagan

The value of this, though, is that a lot of people with marginal jobs and
savings will get the credit they need without a mess of middlemen getting
forms filled out. To keep a lockdown in place, and save lives, you have
to forestall desperation among folk obeying social-distance rules.

What makes you think that when people come out of lockdown, however
long, that they won't get sick (same as without a lockdown)?

Meanwhile, expect the lockdown itself to kill many, many people.
Thanks to WuFlu my mom, as one example, hasn't been able to see a
doctor for two months -- they're all closed. Her neighbor's chemo
has been put off during these two months, but the neighbor's case has
progressed so shockingly that they've decided to proceed urgently.
Prognosis is dire. Mom's not in danger. Lots of others aren't as
lucky.

Cheers,
James Arthur

 

[John Larkin]

On Mon, 20 Apr 2020 12:10:37 -0700 (PDT), whit3rd <whit3rd@gmail.com>
wrote:

On Monday, April 20, 2020 at 11:38:26 AM UTC-7, John Larkin wrote:

Go ahead and joke. What the Fed and the Treasury have been doing is
serious. They have been playing the markets and riding the tiger's
back and the tiger is getting hungry.

The most immediate expenditures, on unemployment and relief during
the lockdown, are almost exactly credit, extended to (everyone)
but eventually to be paid back, in taxation. It's inevitable,
those Trump tax cuts you liked had to be a brief anomaly.

Looks like Laffer is back. He had the novel theory that there is an
optimum tax rate to maximize government revenue (not that maximizing
government revenue is a good thing.) I canceled my subscription to
Scientific American after their absurd editorial mocking Laffer. Their
argument would have negated the universal gas law, too.

The enormous US gov debt will never be paid off through taxation.
Inflation works better.

The PPP loans are designed to be forgiven.

The value of this, though, is that a lot of people with marginal jobs and
savings will get the credit they need without a mess of middlemen getting
forms filled out. To keep a lockdown in place, and save lives, you have
to forestall desperation among folk obeying social-distance rules.

A lot of marginal jobs and businesses won't survive the shutdown. Many
small biz have folded already. Some people will never work again. Some
of that is painful but good in the long term, shuffle things.

--

John Larkin Highland Technology, Inc
picosecond timing precision measurement

jlarkin att highlandtechnology dott com
http://www.highlandtechnology.com

 

[John Larkin]

On Mon, 20 Apr 2020 14:42:55 -0700 (PDT), dagmargoodboat@yahoo.com
wrote:

On Monday, April 20, 2020 at 3:10:42 PM UTC-4, whit3rd wrote:
On Monday, April 20, 2020 at 11:38:26 AM UTC-7, John Larkin wrote:

Go ahead and joke. What the Fed and the Treasury have been doing is
serious. They have been playing the markets and riding the tiger's
back and the tiger is getting hungry.

The most immediate expenditures, on unemployment and relief during
the lockdown, are almost exactly credit, extended to (everyone)
but eventually to be paid back, in taxation. It's inevitable,
those Trump tax cuts you liked had to be a brief anomaly.

The problem is, of course, that the government spends too much.

"Government always finds a need for whatever money it gets."
--Ronald Reagan

The value of this, though, is that a lot of people with marginal jobs and
savings will get the credit they need without a mess of middlemen getting
forms filled out. To keep a lockdown in place, and save lives, you have
to forestall desperation among folk obeying social-distance rules.

What makes you think that when people come out of lockdown, however
long, that they won't get sick (same as without a lockdown)?

Meanwhile, expect the lockdown itself to kill many, many people.
Thanks to WuFlu my mom, as one example, hasn't been able to see a
doctor for two months -- they're all closed. Her neighbor's chemo
has been put off during these two months, but the neighbor's case has
progressed so shockingly that they've decided to proceed urgently.
Prognosis is dire. Mom's not in danger. Lots of others aren't as
lucky.

Cheers,
James Arthur

Imagine how many cancer screenings aren't being done.

One of my kids is taking meds for a suspected problem that isn't fully
identified because her doctor can't see her, so is guessing.

--

John Larkin Highland Technology, Inc
picosecond timing precision measurement

jlarkin att highlandtechnology dott com
http://www.highlandtechnology.com

 

[Ricky C]

On Monday, April 20, 2020 at 6:11:20 PM UTC-4, John Larkin wrote:

On Mon, 20 Apr 2020 14:42:55 -0700 (PDT), dagmargoodboat@yahoo.com
wrote:

On Monday, April 20, 2020 at 3:10:42 PM UTC-4, whit3rd wrote:
On Monday, April 20, 2020 at 11:38:26 AM UTC-7, John Larkin wrote:

Go ahead and joke. What the Fed and the Treasury have been doing is
serious. They have been playing the markets and riding the tiger's
back and the tiger is getting hungry.

The most immediate expenditures, on unemployment and relief during
the lockdown, are almost exactly credit, extended to (everyone)
but eventually to be paid back, in taxation. It's inevitable,
those Trump tax cuts you liked had to be a brief anomaly.

The problem is, of course, that the government spends too much.

"Government always finds a need for whatever money it gets."
--Ronald Reagan

The value of this, though, is that a lot of people with marginal jobs and
savings will get the credit they need without a mess of middlemen getting
forms filled out. To keep a lockdown in place, and save lives, you have
to forestall desperation among folk obeying social-distance rules.

What makes you think that when people come out of lockdown, however
long, that they won't get sick (same as without a lockdown)?

Meanwhile, expect the lockdown itself to kill many, many people.
Thanks to WuFlu my mom, as one example, hasn't been able to see a
doctor for two months -- they're all closed. Her neighbor's chemo
has been put off during these two months, but the neighbor's case has
progressed so shockingly that they've decided to proceed urgently.
Prognosis is dire. Mom's not in danger. Lots of others aren't as
lucky.

Cheers,
James Arthur

Imagine how many cancer screenings aren't being done.

One of my kids is taking meds for a suspected problem that isn't fully
identified because her doctor can't see her, so is guessing.

Did the doctor go blind and can't see??? This is the 21st century. We can do video calls on our cell phones now. Why would a doctor not be able to examine a patient over the phone?

Why aren't medical services provided? I think that comes under the heading of "essential" services.

I suspect you are making a mountain out of a molehill. Obviously the doctor is satisfied with the diagnosis and prescription or wouldn't have done it. Yeah, this is one type of construction you are very good at, dramatic construction.

--

Rick C.

+-- Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
+-- Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

 

[Ricky C]

On Monday, April 20, 2020 at 5:43:01 PM UTC-4, dagmarg...@yahoo.com wrote:

What makes you think that when people come out of lockdown, however
long, that they won't get sick (same as without a lockdown)?

They will if we exit the lock down too soon. If we wait until the current case numbers are low enough we will be able to do the things we weren't able to do in January and February and March... testing, contact tracking and testing. Oh yeah, with MORE testing. Then we do impose literal quarantine on anyone in contact with anyone infected. Do it with the force of law, no exceptions.

Meanwhile, expect the lockdown itself to kill many, many people.
Thanks to WuFlu my mom, as one example, hasn't been able to see a
doctor for two months -- they're all closed.

I don't know where you live, but I see no indication that important medical services are being curtailed here in VA. I checked a few providers and while a new telehealth service is available (examinations via phone and computer), they continue all important services.

Her neighbor's chemo
has been put off during these two months, but the neighbor's case has
progressed so shockingly that they've decided to proceed urgently.
Prognosis is dire. Mom's not in danger. Lots of others aren't as
lucky.

You need to move to a state where they aren't insane about medical treatment.

Try Florida. The WWE is considered an "essential service", so surely they will not prevent any medical exam or treatment, no? In fact if that is the bar, what would be shut down??? Maybe strip joints.

--

Rick C.

-++ Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
-++ Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

 

[Ricky C]

On Monday, April 20, 2020 at 2:38:26 PM UTC-4, John Larkin wrote:

On Mon, 20 Apr 2020 10:26:15 -0700 (PDT), dagmargoodboat@yahoo.com
wrote:

On Sunday, April 19, 2020 at 2:10:58 PM UTC-4, Phil Hobbs wrote:
On 2020-04-19 13:16, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Sun, 19 Apr 2020 10:06:57 -0700 (PDT), dagmargoodboat@yahoo.com
wrote:

On Saturday, April 18, 2020 at 8:20:30 PM UTC-4, John Larkin wrote:
On Sat, 18 Apr 2020 17:04:26 -0700 (PDT), whit3rd <whit3rd@gmail.com
wrote:

On Saturday, April 18, 2020 at 3:45:37 PM UTC-7, John Larkin wrote:

There are death projections that cover a 20:1 range.

From folk with credible models, and for the same region and time period?

One of them is possibly credible. We just don't know which one.

I once had a model of a Ferrari. It wasn't anything like an actual
Ferrari.

But then it didn't come out of a computer -- if it had come out of
a computer it wouldda been just like an actual Ferrari. Because
computers.

Grins,
James

There's a joke that if you want 10 opinions on economics, ask 5
economists.

There's a wonderful article in this morning's NY Times by an
economist. He argues both sides of an issue and comes to no
conclusions. His trained professional skill is ambiguity.

Someone remind me, why do we have economists?




My Dad used to say that he wanted to hire a one-armed economist. People
who didn't know the wheeze would ask why: "I'm sick of being told, 'on
the one hand this, on the other hand that.'"

I was wading through a list of Ronald Reagan's quips last night, and
that one was in there

Another: "An economist is someone who sees something that works in
practice, and wonders if it would work in theory." -- Ronald Reagan

BONUS:
“We have 2 classes of forecasters: Those who don't know . . . and
those who don't know they don't know. “ - John Kenneth Galbraith

How has French revolution affected world economic growth? Too early to
say.

Did you hear of the economist who dove into his swimming pool and broke
his neck? He forgot to seasonally adjust.

There were two economists who were shipwrecked on a desert island. They
had no money but over the next three years, they made millions of
dollars selling their hats to each other.

Two economists were sitting at a nudist colony. The one said, "Have
you read Marx?" The other says, "It's these wicker chairs."

Three econometricians went out hunting and came across a large deer.
The first econometrician fired but missed by a meter to the left. The
second econometrician fired but missed by a meter to the right. The
third econometrician didn’t fire but shouted in triumph, “We got it!
We got it!”

Cheers,
James

Go ahead and joke. What the Fed and the Treasury have been doing is
serious. They have been playing the markets and riding the tiger's
back and the tiger is getting hungry.

Yes, and idle hands are the devil's workshop.

--

Rick C.

--+ Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
--+ Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

 

[Ricky C]

On Monday, April 20, 2020 at 5:08:10 PM UTC-4, John Larkin wrote:

On Mon, 20 Apr 2020 12:10:37 -0700 (PDT), whit3rd <whit3rd@gmail.com
wrote:

On Monday, April 20, 2020 at 11:38:26 AM UTC-7, John Larkin wrote:

Go ahead and joke. What the Fed and the Treasury have been doing is
serious. They have been playing the markets and riding the tiger's
back and the tiger is getting hungry.

The most immediate expenditures, on unemployment and relief during
the lockdown, are almost exactly credit, extended to (everyone)
but eventually to be paid back, in taxation. It's inevitable,
those Trump tax cuts you liked had to be a brief anomaly.

Looks like Laffer is back. He had the novel theory that there is an
optimum tax rate to maximize government revenue (not that maximizing
government revenue is a good thing.) I canceled my subscription to
Scientific American after their absurd editorial mocking Laffer. Their
argument would have negated the universal gas law, too.

The enormous US gov debt will never be paid off through taxation.
Inflation works better.

You can't pay off US debt with inflation. Higher inflation inexorably results in higher interest rates than the inflation factor.

The current US debt is not so bad. It's only $80,666.67 per person. I've owed a lot more than that, roughly triple and I paid it off in 30 years. The problem is we keep spending more than we make... the deficit.

Fix the deficit and the debt will take care of itself.

Oh yeah, inflation can't help with the deficit either.


> The PPP loans are designed to be forgiven.

Yes, if the employers keep paying their employees. That's the point, better PPP loans than unemployment.

The value of this, though, is that a lot of people with marginal jobs and
savings will get the credit they need without a mess of middlemen getting
forms filled out. To keep a lockdown in place, and save lives, you have
to forestall desperation among folk obeying social-distance rules.

A lot of marginal jobs and businesses won't survive the shutdown. Many
small biz have folded already. Some people will never work again. Some
of that is painful but good in the long term, shuffle things.

You don't have to be marginal. How many businesses can close their doors, send everyone home and two or three months later start back up as if nothing had happened? Restarting the economy won't be an easy transition. Sure, as soon as we let people go back to work, many will, but not everyone. Not all companies are ready to start up until their customers are buying. This will be a chain that will ramp up a bit at a time.

But unlike Larkin, I'm willing to say what I think will happen. Instead of staying in lock down until we have the infection under enough control such that we can prevent another massive spread of the disease, we will start up too soon and the infection will rapidly spread again. This time governments will be gun shy of imposing stay at home orders and the whole mess falls apart with the disease spreading much more widely than a few urban centers.

In most of the country, once you close the schools and keep non-essential workers at home, the new infection rate drops a lot. But relax these constraints and the infection rate goes up a lot.

I just think we need to get this disease under control before open things up again.

It's not entirely different from smothering a fire with a pot lid, but then because you don't see flames you take the lid off before the overheated pot has cooled and WHAM!

--

Rick C.

-+- Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
-+- Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

 

On Monday, April 20, 2020 at 7:31:55 PM UTC-4, Ricky C wrote:

On Monday, April 20, 2020 at 5:43:01 PM UTC-4, dagmarg...@yahoo.com wrote:

What makes you think that when people come out of lockdown, however
long, that they won't get sick (same as without a lockdown)?

They will if we exit the lock down too soon. If we wait until the current case numbers are low enough we will be able to do the things we weren't able to do in January and February and March... testing, contact tracking and testing. Oh yeah, with MORE testing. Then we do impose literal quarantine on anyone in contact with anyone infected. Do it with the force of law, no exceptions.

That doesn't work. The virus will still be there, and most people
carrying it won't even know they have it.

E.g., this homeless shelter in Boston, where 36% tested positive,
but were symptom-free.
https://www.dailywire.com/news/homeless-shelter-finds-36-percent-of-visitors-test-positive-nearly-all-asymptomatic

And all the people coming out of hiding, will then get it.

ISTM flattening the curve doesn't reduce deaths, it simply re-schedules
them.

The sensible, rational, epidemiologists I've heard, say the same --
it's to prevent our hospitals from being overwhelmed, like Italy,
not to reduce the total number of people who get sick. It doesn't.

Meanwhile, expect the lockdown itself to kill many, many people.
Thanks to WuFlu my mom, as one example, hasn't been able to see a
doctor for two months -- they're all closed.

I don't know where you live,

We're talking about California.

> but I see no indication that important medical services are being curtailed here in VA. I checked a few providers and while a new telehealth service is available (examinations via phone and computer), they continue all important services.

It's not possible to be hunkered down, and providing medical services.
It's one or the other.

The dental offices down the street are closed. The blood bank isn't
getting donations -- they're pleading.

Lots of hospitals are now empty, even laying employees off. Check the
news. That's incompatible with "available and providing normal care."

Her neighbor's chemo
has been put off during these two months, but the neighbor's case has
progressed so shockingly that they've decided to proceed urgently.
Prognosis is dire. Mom's not in danger. Lots of others aren't as
lucky.

You need to move to a state where they aren't insane about medical treatment.

I don't think the neighbor is in any condition to plan a move just now.
She's busy struggling to breathe. But she'll be glad you had an easy
answer for her, that's always comforting.

Cheers,
James Arthur

 

On Mon, 20 Apr 2020 18:34:39 -0700 (PDT), dagmargoodboat@yahoo.com
wrote:

On Monday, April 20, 2020 at 7:31:55 PM UTC-4, Ricky C wrote:
On Monday, April 20, 2020 at 5:43:01 PM UTC-4, dagmarg...@yahoo.com wrote:

What makes you think that when people come out of lockdown, however
long, that they won't get sick (same as without a lockdown)?

They will if we exit the lock down too soon. If we wait until the current case numbers are low enough we will be able to do the things we weren't able to do in January and February and March... testing, contact tracking and testing. Oh yeah, with MORE testing. Then we do impose literal quarantine on anyone in contact with anyone infected. Do it with the force of law, no exceptions.

That doesn't work. The virus will still be there, and most people
carrying it won't even know they have it.

E.g., this homeless shelter in Boston, where 36% tested positive,
but were symptom-free.
https://www.dailywire.com/news/homeless-shelter-finds-36-percent-of-visitors-test-positive-nearly-all-asymptomatic

And all the people coming out of hiding, will then get it.

ISTM flattening the curve doesn't reduce deaths, it simply re-schedules
them.

The sensible, rational, epidemiologists I've heard, say the same --
it's to prevent our hospitals from being overwhelmed, like Italy,
not to reduce the total number of people who get sick. It doesn't.


Meanwhile, expect the lockdown itself to kill many, many people.
Thanks to WuFlu my mom, as one example, hasn't been able to see a
doctor for two months -- they're all closed.

I don't know where you live,

We're talking about California.

but I see no indication that important medical services are being curtailed here in VA. I checked a few providers and while a new telehealth service is available (examinations via phone and computer), they continue all important services.

It's not possible to be hunkered down, and providing medical services.
It's one or the other.

The dental offices down the street are closed. The blood bank isn't
getting donations -- they're pleading.

A lot of people are going to get very shaggy and very grey soon. The
public uproar over that is going to be a political force.




--

John Larkin Highland Technology, Inc

Science teaches us to doubt.

Claude Bernard

 

[Bill Sloman]

On Tuesday, April 21, 2020 at 12:53:20 PM UTC+10, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:

On Mon, 20 Apr 2020 18:34:39 -0700 (PDT), dagmargoodboat@yahoo.com
wrote:

On Monday, April 20, 2020 at 7:31:55 PM UTC-4, Ricky C wrote:
On Monday, April 20, 2020 at 5:43:01 PM UTC-4, dagmarg...@yahoo.com wrote:

What makes you think that when people come out of lockdown, however
long, that they won't get sick (same as without a lockdown)?

They will if we exit the lock down too soon. If we wait until the current case numbers are low enough we will be able to do the things we weren't able to do in January and February and March... testing, contact tracking and testing. Oh yeah, with MORE testing. Then we do impose literal quarantine on anyone in contact with anyone infected. Do it with the force of law, no exceptions.

That doesn't work. The virus will still be there, and most people
carrying it won't even know they have it.

E.g., this homeless shelter in Boston, where 36% tested positive,
but were symptom-free.
https://www.dailywire.com/news/homeless-shelter-finds-36-percent-of-visitors-test-positive-nearly-all-asymptomatic

And all the people coming out of hiding, will then get it.

ISTM flattening the curve doesn't reduce deaths, it simply re-schedules
them.

The sensible, rational, epidemiologists I've heard, say the same --
it's to prevent our hospitals from being overwhelmed, like Italy,
not to reduce the total number of people who get sick. It doesn't.


Meanwhile, expect the lockdown itself to kill many, many people.
Thanks to WuFlu my mom, as one example, hasn't been able to see a
doctor for two months -- they're all closed.

I don't know where you live,

We're talking about California.

but I see no indication that important medical services are being curtailed here in VA. I checked a few providers and while a new telehealth service is available (examinations via phone and computer), they continue all important services.

It's not possible to be hunkered down, and providing medical services.
It's one or the other.

The dental offices down the street are closed. The blood bank isn't
getting donations -- they're pleading.

A lot of people are going to get very shaggy and very grey soon. The
public uproar over that is going to be a political force.

Australia's lock-down doesn't now include barbers and hair-dressers, though there were rules at the start which came in for quite a lot of criticism and got dumped. They still have to be careful.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

 

[Bill Sloman]

On Tuesday, April 21, 2020 at 11:34:44 AM UTC+10, dagmarg...@yahoo.com wrote:

On Monday, April 20, 2020 at 7:31:55 PM UTC-4, Ricky C wrote:
On Monday, April 20, 2020 at 5:43:01 PM UTC-4, dagmarg...@yahoo.com wrote:

What makes you think that when people come out of lockdown, however
long, that they won't get sick (same as without a lockdown)?

They will if we exit the lock down too soon. If we wait until the current case numbers are low enough we will be able to do the things we weren't able to do in January and February and March... testing, contact tracking and testing. Oh yeah, with MORE testing. Then we do impose literal quarantine on anyone in contact with anyone infected. Do it with the force of law, no exceptions.

That doesn't work. The virus will still be there, and most people
carrying it won't even know they have it.

James Arthur doesn't understand contact tracing. If you've been in contact with somebody who was infectious (even if they didn't know it) you get told to self isolate for 14 days after the contact.

It isn't perfect, but it seems to work a whole lot better than whatever the US seems to be doing at the moment.

Covid-19 victims are infectious before they have visible symptoms, and some poeple may beat the virus without ever showing symptoms. We haven't got a good grip on how many that might be, but contact tracing has made it clear that it's less than half the people who get infected, probably quite a lot less.

E.g., this homeless shelter in Boston, where 36% tested positive,
but were symptom-free.
https://www.dailywire.com/news/homeless-shelter-finds-36-percent-of-visitors-test-positive-nearly-all-asymptomatic

One incoming infected person can infect a lot of people quite quickly in that kind of environment. You can detect the infection before the infectees shown symtoms, so this isn't evidence for a high level of symptom-less infections, and James Arthur should know enough about the subject to be aware of this, so this is probably one more example of his enthusiasm for ignoring facts that don't fit his message.

> And all the people coming out of hiding, will then get it.

Ir they are let out too early.

ISTM flattening the curve doesn't reduce deaths, it simply re-schedules
them.

What stuff means to James Arthur is what he'd like it to mean.

"Flattening the curve" in China meant that they ended up with 4,632 deaths, and nobody seems to be dying of Covid-19 there any more.

The US failure to flatten the curve has cost them 42,517 deaths so far, and they are clocking up nearly 30,000 new cases every day, which probably means 1000 new deaths.

Since everybody ends up dying of something, avoiding dying of Covid-19 is merely rescheduling the inevitable, but Covid-19 does kill people who might have been expected to live quite a bit longer.

The sensible, rational, epidemiologists I've heard, say the same --
it's to prevent our hospitals from being overwhelmed, like Italy,
not to reduce the total number of people who get sick. It doesn't.

It's vital to keep hospitals from being overwhelmed, but doing it properly, as in China, South Korea and - as it seems so far - Australia can effectively eliminate the virus from the population.

It's still going to pop up again, due to travellers from places that haven't done it right (such as Italy, Spain and the US), but local lock-down and rigorous contact tracing can reduce the new infections to very low numbers.

Meanwhile, expect the lockdown itself to kill many, many people.
Thanks to WuFlu my mom, as one example, hasn't been able to see a
doctor for two months -- they're all closed.

I don't know where you live,

We're talking about California.

but I see no indication that important medical services are being curtailed here in VA. I checked a few providers and while a new telehealth service is available (examinations via phone and computer), they continue all important services.

It's not possible to be hunkered down, and providing medical services.
It's one or the other.

Of course it is. Lock-down isn't absolute.

The dental offices down the street are closed. The blood bank isn't
getting donations -- they're pleading.

Lots of hospitals are now empty, even laying employees off. Check the
news. That's incompatible with "available and providing normal care."

The US doesn't have universal health. If the hospital isn't serving enough customers to make a profit, it will close it's doors. It doesn't have to, but compensating it for serving the interests of society as whole would be socialism, and James Arthur would prefer to die (and is perfectly happy to see other people die) in the pursuit of ideological purity.

Her neighbor's chemo
has been put off during these two months, but the neighbor's case has
progressed so shockingly that they've decided to proceed urgently.
Prognosis is dire. Mom's not in danger. Lots of others aren't as
lucky.

You need to move to a state where they aren't insane about medical treatment.

I don't think the neighbor is in any condition to plan a move just now.
She's busy struggling to breathe. But she'll be glad you had an easy
answer for her, that's always comforting.

James Arthur is a font of easy answers - almost all of them wrong.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

 

[Ricky C]

On Monday, April 20, 2020 at 9:34:44 PM UTC-4, dagmarg...@yahoo.com wrote:

On Monday, April 20, 2020 at 7:31:55 PM UTC-4, Ricky C wrote:
On Monday, April 20, 2020 at 5:43:01 PM UTC-4, dagmarg...@yahoo.com wrote:

What makes you think that when people come out of lockdown, however
long, that they won't get sick (same as without a lockdown)?

They will if we exit the lock down too soon. If we wait until the current case numbers are low enough we will be able to do the things we weren't able to do in January and February and March... testing, contact tracking and testing. Oh yeah, with MORE testing. Then we do impose literal quarantine on anyone in contact with anyone infected. Do it with the force of law, no exceptions.

That doesn't work. The virus will still be there, and most people
carrying it won't even know they have it.

That's why all the testing. You do believe the testing works, right? If not, how do you know so many people are infected???

E.g., this homeless shelter in Boston, where 36% tested positive,
but were symptom-free.
https://www.dailywire.com/news/homeless-shelter-finds-36-percent-of-visitors-test-positive-nearly-all-asymptomatic

And all the people coming out of hiding, will then get it.

Not if you quarantine the people who test positive. Yeah, if you let typhoid Mary walk all over town you will have a problem.

ISTM flattening the curve doesn't reduce deaths, it simply re-schedules
them.

Well there are multiple reasons why you are wrong and they have all been explained before even if you don't get it.

The sensible, rational, epidemiologists I've heard, say the same --
it's to prevent our hospitals from being overwhelmed, like Italy,
not to reduce the total number of people who get sick. It doesn't.

Tell that to China and the other countries that have the disease under control.

Meanwhile, expect the lockdown itself to kill many, many people.
Thanks to WuFlu my mom, as one example, hasn't been able to see a
doctor for two months -- they're all closed.

I don't know where you live,

We're talking about California.

So your mom can't get medical care in California? Wait, there are people all over the country protesting in the streets that they can't have their hair cut and your aren't protesting about your Mom not getting medical care???

Something is fishy.

but I see no indication that important medical services are being curtailed here in VA. I checked a few providers and while a new telehealth service is available (examinations via phone and computer), they continue all important services.

It's not possible to be hunkered down, and providing medical services.
It's one or the other.

Is the entire world black and white to you? Where are you getting your food? Is food distribution shut down? How about the power to your home? Is the electricity industry shut down?

So if doctors are still working it's not a shut down?

The dental offices down the street are closed. The blood bank isn't
getting donations -- they're pleading.

Lots of hospitals are now empty, even laying employees off. Check the
news. That's incompatible with "available and providing normal care."

We aren't talking about hospitals. We are talking about your Mom and how you don't care. Why aren't you protesting in the streets??? You should hold a sign that says, "Why can't my Mom get kinda important medical care?"

Her neighbor's chemo
has been put off during these two months, but the neighbor's case has
progressed so shockingly that they've decided to proceed urgently.
Prognosis is dire. Mom's not in danger. Lots of others aren't as
lucky.

You need to move to a state where they aren't insane about medical treatment.

I don't think the neighbor is in any condition to plan a move just now.
She's busy struggling to breathe. But she'll be glad you had an easy
answer for her, that's always comforting.

I just want to understand. You seem to be saying she is dying there. So my suggestion for her to go somewhere to get medical care is a bad idea? Ok, please tell her that too. "Stay here and die, it's the right thing to do".

--

Rick C.

+-+ Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
+-+ Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

 

[Ricky C]

On Monday, April 20, 2020 at 10:53:20 PM UTC-4, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:

On Mon, 20 Apr 2020 18:34:39 -0700 (PDT), dagmargoodboat@yahoo.com
wrote:

On Monday, April 20, 2020 at 7:31:55 PM UTC-4, Ricky C wrote:
On Monday, April 20, 2020 at 5:43:01 PM UTC-4, dagmarg...@yahoo.com wrote:

What makes you think that when people come out of lockdown, however
long, that they won't get sick (same as without a lockdown)?

They will if we exit the lock down too soon. If we wait until the current case numbers are low enough we will be able to do the things we weren't able to do in January and February and March... testing, contact tracking and testing. Oh yeah, with MORE testing. Then we do impose literal quarantine on anyone in contact with anyone infected. Do it with the force of law, no exceptions.

That doesn't work. The virus will still be there, and most people
carrying it won't even know they have it.

E.g., this homeless shelter in Boston, where 36% tested positive,
but were symptom-free.
https://www.dailywire.com/news/homeless-shelter-finds-36-percent-of-visitors-test-positive-nearly-all-asymptomatic

And all the people coming out of hiding, will then get it.

ISTM flattening the curve doesn't reduce deaths, it simply re-schedules
them.

The sensible, rational, epidemiologists I've heard, say the same --
it's to prevent our hospitals from being overwhelmed, like Italy,
not to reduce the total number of people who get sick. It doesn't.


Meanwhile, expect the lockdown itself to kill many, many people.
Thanks to WuFlu my mom, as one example, hasn't been able to see a
doctor for two months -- they're all closed.

I don't know where you live,

We're talking about California.

but I see no indication that important medical services are being curtailed here in VA. I checked a few providers and while a new telehealth service is available (examinations via phone and computer), they continue all important services.

It's not possible to be hunkered down, and providing medical services.
It's one or the other.

The dental offices down the street are closed. The blood bank isn't
getting donations -- they're pleading.

A lot of people are going to get very shaggy and very grey soon. The
public uproar over that is going to be a political force.

Yep, I can see it. The shaggy grey brigade is out recruiting voters as soon as this is over and they get a haircut so they can go out in public.

--

Rick C.

++- Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
++- Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

 

[Tom Gardner]

On 21/04/20 06:03, Bill Sloman wrote:

On Tuesday, April 21, 2020 at 11:34:44 AM UTC+10, dagmarg...@yahoo.com
wrote:
On Monday, April 20, 2020 at 7:31:55 PM UTC-4, Ricky C wrote:
On Monday, April 20, 2020 at 5:43:01 PM UTC-4, dagmarg...@yahoo.com
wrote:

What makes you think that when people come out of lockdown, however
long, that they won't get sick (same as without a lockdown)?

They will if we exit the lock down too soon. If we wait until the
current case numbers are low enough we will be able to do the things we
weren't able to do in January and February and March... testing, contact
tracking and testing. Oh yeah, with MORE testing. Then we do impose
literal quarantine on anyone in contact with anyone infected. Do it with
the force of law, no exceptions.

That doesn't work. The virus will still be there, and most people carrying
it won't even know they have it.

James Arthur doesn't understand contact tracing. If you've been in contact
with somebody who was infectious (even if they didn't know it) you get told
to self isolate for 14 days after the contact.

Just so.

In the UK there is legislation that can compel people to
isolate themselves, but I haven't heard of it being used
(yet). I wonder if it is actually practical legislation.

"Flattening the curve" in China meant that they ended up with 4,632 deaths,
and nobody seems to be dying of Covid-19 there any more.

Yet.

The IC study and previous flu epidemics have had multiple
peaks, months apart.

None of that should be taken to infer I think the US
(or UK) response is sensible.

Since everybody ends up dying of something, avoiding dying of Covid-19 is
merely rescheduling the inevitable, but Covid-19 does kill people who might
have been expected to live quite a bit longer.

Spiegelhalter, whose job is to understand and publicise
relative risks has an interesting take on that.

He notes the covid mortality rates exactly mirror those
from other causes. In effect covid at any age compresses
the annual risk of dying into a much shorter timescale.

The US doesn't have universal health. If the hospital isn't serving enough
customers to make a profit, it will close it's doors. It doesn't have to, but
compensating it for serving the interests of society as whole would be
socialism, and James Arthur would prefer to die (and is perfectly happy to
see other people die) in the pursuit of ideological purity.

Kerala is interesting. It is highly literate, has a significant
private healthcare sector, but a trusted more-or-less communist
government.

Its covid response and results are impressive.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/apr/21/kerala-indian-state-flattened-coronavirus-curve

Background: I know Kerala as a tourist, and wouldn't mind
living there - if they would have me

 

[Tom Gardner]

On 21/04/20 00:37, Ricky C wrote:

Did the doctor go blind and can't see??? This is the 21st century. We can
do video calls on our cell phones now. Why would a doctor not be able to
examine a patient over the phone?

Only if the patient has a suitable device and can use it at
the relevant time.

My mother will never have a smartphone, nor equivalent.

If I'm really laid low by something, I may well not be in
any state to operate high tech. If I'm gasping for breath
I'm not even sure I could make myself heard when phoning
for an ambulance.