Claim That Covid-19 Came From Lab In China Completely Unfoun

[John Doe]

keith wright <keith@kjwdesigns.com> wrote:

John Doe wrote:

Over twice as many people die from the flu than so far have died
from the coronavirus.

Covid-19 is making a good attempt at overtaking the flu in a short
time unless we do something about it:

This is a plot of the weekly deaths in New York compared to those
from the flu.

The rest of the country isn't anything like New York. Even
California has a small fraction of that.

Here is a frequently updated map of the states (page down about
three times), with confirmed cases and deaths...

https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/03/16/816707182/map-tracking-the-spread-of-the-coronavirus-in-the-u-s

Notice Wyoming has a grand total of TWO deaths. North and South
Dakota have a total of *21* deaths. Many of the flyover states have
no more than 100 deaths.

 

[Ricky C]

On Tuesday, April 21, 2020 at 11:22:03 PM UTC-4, whit3rd wrote:

On Tuesday, April 21, 2020 at 5:55:14 PM UTC-7, John Doe wrote:

Over twice as many people die from the flu than so far have died
from the coronavirus.

Meaningless without matching timescales.

He's saying if we exit the lock down we can play catchup!

--

Rick C.

-+-- Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
-+-- Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

 

[John Doe]

Regular Australian troll...

--
Bill Sloman <bill.sloman@ieee.org> wrote:

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Subject: Re: Claim That Covid-19 Came From Lab In China Completely Unfounded, Scientists Say
From: Bill Sloman <bill.sloman@ieee.org
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On Wednesday, April 22, 2020 at 12:07:56 PM UTC+10, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Tue, 21 Apr 2020 17:27:14 -0700 (PDT), dagmargoodboat@yahoo.com
wrote:

On Tuesday, April 21, 2020 at 12:27:44 PM UTC-4, jla...@highlandsniptech
nology.com wrote:
On Tue, 21 Apr 2020 07:57:16 -0700 (PDT), dagmargoodboat@yahoo.com
wrote:

On Tuesday, April 21, 2020 at 10:40:29 AM UTC-4, Tom Gardner wrote:
On 21/04/20 15:14, Ricky C wrote:
On Tuesday, April 21, 2020 at 5:27:02 AM UTC-4, Tom Gardner wrote
:
On 21/04/20 06:03, Bill Sloman wrote:
On Tuesday, April 21, 2020 at 11:34:44 AM UTC+10, dagmarg...@ya
hoo.com
wrote:
On Monday, April 20, 2020 at 7:31:55 PM UTC-4, Ricky C wrote:
On Monday, April 20, 2020 at 5:43:01 PM UTC-4, dagmarg...@yah
oo.com
wrote:

What makes you think that when people come out of lockdown,
however long, that they won't get sick (same as without a
lockdown)?

They will if we exit the lock down too soon. If we wait unti
l the
current case numbers are low enough we will be able to do the
things
we weren't able to do in January and February and March... te
sting,
contact tracking and testing. Oh yeah, with MORE testing. T
hen we
do impose literal quarantine on anyone in contact with anyone
infected. Do it with the force of law, no exceptions.

That doesn't work. The virus will still be there, and most peo
ple
carrying it won't even know they have it.

James Arthur doesn't understand contact tracing. If you've been
in
contact with somebody who was infectious (even if they didn't k
now it)
you get told to self isolate for 14 days after the contact.

Just so.

In the UK there is legislation that can compel people to isolate
themselves, but I haven't heard of it being used (yet). I wonder
if it is
actually practical legislation.


"Flattening the curve" in China meant that they ended up with 4
,632
deaths, and nobody seems to be dying of Covid-19 there any more
.

Yet.

The IC study and previous flu epidemics have had multiple peaks,
months
apart.

Do you understand the difference between a disease that is allowe
d to roam
the earth freely and one that is tracked and hunted down and kill
ed???

China and South Korea have both reduced the number of infected to
adequately
low numbers that they can reopen their businesses at least to som
e extent.
Once the virus is eliminated it can't come back other than from t
he outside.
They take adequate measures to assure the disease is not allowed
to return
without being hunted down immediately.


Your big unproven assumption is that is can be completely "hunted
down and killed" or "eliminated". I, and the WHO amongst others,
don't believe that.

Without that, there /will/ be several waves of peaks, months apart.

Right -- you're absolutely right. There's no way to hunt down someth
ing
lying hidden in the overwhelming majority of people harboring it. It
's
everywhere, and like kudzu, privet, fire ants, and killer bees, it's
not
going away. The genii's out of the bottle.

But seasonal colds and flu do go away. This one is almost gone from a
lot of countries.

I don't think that's correct. Prevalence falls dramatically
out-of-season, but AIUI they persist in the population (people
still get flu mid-summer, just not as often) and resurge when
conditions favor (promote / facilitate) effective propagation.

If every cold and flu virus lingered forever, we'd all be dead. We'd
get 50 infections at a time all year.

I wonder why we don't.

It's called the immune system. Trying reading something about it, sometime.

You will be amazed, if you have the attention span to keep reading without regular doses of flattery. Since you will get reminded of all of the idiotic things you have posted on the subject, you would find the experience anything but flattering.

The reason why we keep on getting new infections - maybe one ever few years - is that the viruses involved mutate very frequently, and the one's that can still infect you have changed enough that your immune system doesn't recognise them any more, and has to find a new antibody to label them as foreign, dangerous and in need of termination. This takes a couple of days.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

 

[Ricky C]

On Wednesday, April 22, 2020 at 12:36:03 AM UTC-4, John Doe wrote:

keith wright <keith@kjwdesigns.com> wrote:

John Doe wrote:

Over twice as many people die from the flu than so far have died
from the coronavirus.

Covid-19 is making a good attempt at overtaking the flu in a short
time unless we do something about it:

This is a plot of the weekly deaths in New York compared to those
from the flu.

The rest of the country isn't anything like New York. Even
California has a small fraction of that.

Here is a frequently updated map of the states (page down about
three times), with confirmed cases and deaths...

https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/03/16/816707182/map-tracking-the-spread-of-the-coronavirus-in-the-u-s

Notice Wyoming has a grand total of TWO deaths. North and South
Dakota have a total of *21* deaths. Many of the flyover states have
no more than 100 deaths.

The flyover states also have MUCH lower populations. They essentially are not so important in this endeavor, but we should not let the new infection rate climb even there.

--

Rick C.

-+-+ Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
-+-+ Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

 

On Tuesday, April 21, 2020 at 10:07:56 PM UTC-4, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:

On Tue, 21 Apr 2020 17:27:14 -0700 (PDT), dagmargoodboat@yahoo.com
wrote:

On Tuesday, April 21, 2020 at 12:27:44 PM UTC-4, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Tue, 21 Apr 2020 07:57:16 -0700 (PDT), dagmargoodboat@yahoo.com
wrote:
On Tuesday, April 21, 2020 at 10:40:29 AM UTC-4, Tom Gardner wrote:

Your big unproven assumption is that is can be completely "hunted
down and killed" or "eliminated". I, and the WHO amongst others,
don't believe that.

Without that, there /will/ be several waves of peaks, months apart.

Right -- you're absolutely right. There's no way to hunt down something
lying hidden in the overwhelming majority of people harboring it. It's
everywhere, and like kudzu, privet, fire ants, and killer bees, it's not
going away. The genii's out of the bottle.

But seasonal colds and flu do go away. This one is almost gone from a
lot of countries.

I don't think that's correct. Prevalence falls dramatically
out-of-season, but AIUI they persist in the population (people
still get flu mid-summer, just not as often) and resurge when
conditions favor (promote / facilitate) effective propagation.

If every cold and flu virus lingered forever, we'd all be dead. We'd
get 50 infections at a time all year.

FLU SEASONALITY
"While seasonal influenza (flu) viruses are detected year-round in the United States, flu viruses are most common during the fall and winter."
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/season/flu-season.htm

> I wonder why we don't.

a) Sub-optimal propagation conditions, seasonal, reduce exposures
b) We develop immunity?

Cheers,
James

 

[Tom Gardner]

On 21/04/20 17:27, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:

On Tue, 21 Apr 2020 07:57:16 -0700 (PDT), dagmargoodboat@yahoo.com
wrote:

On Tuesday, April 21, 2020 at 10:40:29 AM UTC-4, Tom Gardner wrote:
On 21/04/20 15:14, Ricky C wrote:
On Tuesday, April 21, 2020 at 5:27:02 AM UTC-4, Tom Gardner wrote:
On 21/04/20 06:03, Bill Sloman wrote:
On Tuesday, April 21, 2020 at 11:34:44 AM UTC+10, dagmarg...@yahoo.com
wrote:
On Monday, April 20, 2020 at 7:31:55 PM UTC-4, Ricky C wrote:
On Monday, April 20, 2020 at 5:43:01 PM UTC-4, dagmarg...@yahoo.com
wrote:

What makes you think that when people come out of lockdown,
however long, that they won't get sick (same as without a
lockdown)?

They will if we exit the lock down too soon. If we wait until the
current case numbers are low enough we will be able to do the things
we weren't able to do in January and February and March... testing,
contact tracking and testing. Oh yeah, with MORE testing. Then we
do impose literal quarantine on anyone in contact with anyone
infected. Do it with the force of law, no exceptions.

That doesn't work. The virus will still be there, and most people
carrying it won't even know they have it.

James Arthur doesn't understand contact tracing. If you've been in
contact with somebody who was infectious (even if they didn't know it)
you get told to self isolate for 14 days after the contact.

Just so.

In the UK there is legislation that can compel people to isolate
themselves, but I haven't heard of it being used (yet). I wonder if it is
actually practical legislation.


"Flattening the curve" in China meant that they ended up with 4,632
deaths, and nobody seems to be dying of Covid-19 there any more.

Yet.

The IC study and previous flu epidemics have had multiple peaks, months
apart.

Do you understand the difference between a disease that is allowed to roam
the earth freely and one that is tracked and hunted down and killed???

China and South Korea have both reduced the number of infected to adequately
low numbers that they can reopen their businesses at least to some extent.
Once the virus is eliminated it can't come back other than from the outside.
They take adequate measures to assure the disease is not allowed to return
without being hunted down immediately.


Your big unproven assumption is that is can be completely "hunted
down and killed" or "eliminated". I, and the WHO amongst others,
don't believe that.

Without that, there /will/ be several waves of peaks, months apart.

Right -- you're absolutely right. There's no way to hunt down something
lying hidden in the overwhelming majority of people harboring it. It's
everywhere, and like kudzu, privet, fire ants, and killer bees, it's not
going away. The genii's out of the bottle.

But seasonal colds and flu do go away. This one is almost gone from a
lot of countries.

That's "gone" in the way that plague is gone from the US (it
is actually endemic in the SW). Given the right conditions,
both will reappear.

The difference between covid and is that the plague is more
easily treatable (antibiotics, fatality rate 11%), it is less
transmissable in modern societies, and the conditions are
unlikely to reoccur.

And yes of course there will be a resurgence when people start
circulating again -- it's unavoidable. So we manage it. Look for
vaccines. Test treatments. And we get back to work.

I'm at work!

I walked into the road without looking!

(which is unlikely to be a problem with the 1960s-level of
traffic around here)

 

[Tom Gardner]

On 22/04/20 01:10, dagmargoodboat@yahoo.com wrote:

On Tuesday, April 21, 2020 at 12:12:30 PM UTC-4, Tom Gardner wrote:
On 21/04/20 15:57, dagmargoodboat@yahoo.com wrote:
On Tuesday, April 21, 2020 at 10:40:29 AM UTC-4, Tom Gardner wrote:

Your big unproven assumption is that is can be completely "hunted
down and killed" or "eliminated". I, and the WHO amongst others,
don't believe that.

Without that, there /will/ be several waves of peaks, months apart.

Right -- you're absolutely right. There's no way to hunt down something
lying hidden in the overwhelming majority of people harboring it. It's
everywhere, and like kudzu, privet, fire ants, and killer bees, it's not
going away. The genii's out of the bottle.

And yes of course there will be a resurgence when people start
circulating again -- it's unavoidable. So we manage it. Look for
vaccines. Test treatments. And we get back to work.

And the big unanswered (currently unanswerable) questions are
- what stages of relaxation are valid (by some defined criteria)
- what are the preconditions for relaxation
- what are the preconditions for re-imposition of restrictions

This is an uncommonly intelligent, responsible, timely discussion of
those issues, conducted with the doctor behind the antibody prevalence
studies in Santa Clara and Los Angeles counties.

Highlights:
- contact-tracing is infeasible at these prevalence levels
- details Santa Clara study method
- estimates COVID-19 case fatality rate ~= 0.1 to 0.2%, same as flu
- influenza mortality stats are lowered by the availability of vaccines;
w/o vaccines, flu CFR would be higher.
- recommends widespread serological studies
- hospital utilization level should guide re-opening efforts
- shutdown devastating to impoverished nations
https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2020/04/an-update-from-dr-b.php

I'd look at that but, since I'm rather deaf, videos require
a lot more effort on my part than reading. In addition, it
is 42 minutes long, and I'm sure that I could read the
information therein faster.

Having said that, the highlights you mention seem unremarkable,
although some of the details will inevitably turn out to
be imperfect.

The "hospital utilization level should guide re-opening efforts"
point is essentially the same as the Imperial College report,
provided that re-imposition occurs when the case rate rises
again.

The IC report estimates that we would then be shutdown for 2/3
the time until a vaccine is developed.

 

[Tom Gardner]

On 22/04/20 06:45, dagmargoodboat@yahoo.com wrote:

On Tuesday, April 21, 2020 at 10:07:56 PM UTC-4, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Tue, 21 Apr 2020 17:27:14 -0700 (PDT), dagmargoodboat@yahoo.com
wrote:

On Tuesday, April 21, 2020 at 12:27:44 PM UTC-4, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Tue, 21 Apr 2020 07:57:16 -0700 (PDT), dagmargoodboat@yahoo.com
wrote:
On Tuesday, April 21, 2020 at 10:40:29 AM UTC-4, Tom Gardner wrote:

Your big unproven assumption is that is can be completely "hunted
down and killed" or "eliminated". I, and the WHO amongst others,
don't believe that.

Without that, there /will/ be several waves of peaks, months apart.

Right -- you're absolutely right. There's no way to hunt down something
lying hidden in the overwhelming majority of people harboring it. It's
everywhere, and like kudzu, privet, fire ants, and killer bees, it's not
going away. The genii's out of the bottle.

But seasonal colds and flu do go away. This one is almost gone from a
lot of countries.

I don't think that's correct. Prevalence falls dramatically
out-of-season, but AIUI they persist in the population (people
still get flu mid-summer, just not as often) and resurge when
conditions favor (promote / facilitate) effective propagation.

If every cold and flu virus lingered forever, we'd all be dead. We'd
get 50 infections at a time all year.

FLU SEASONALITY
"While seasonal influenza (flu) viruses are detected year-round in the United States, flu viruses are most common during the fall and winter."
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/season/flu-season.htm

I wonder why we don't.

a) Sub-optimal propagation conditions, seasonal, reduce exposures
b) We develop immunity?

Quite!

It isn't rocket science!

 

On Tuesday, April 21, 2020 at 10:28:28 PM UTC-4, Ricky C wrote:

On Tuesday, April 21, 2020 at 10:09:28 PM UTC-4, keith wright wrote:
On Tuesday, 21 April 2020 17:55:14 UTC-7, John Doe wrote:
...
Over twice as many people die from the flu than so far have died
from the coronavirus.

Covid-19 is making a good attempt at overtaking the flu in a short time unless we do something about it:

This is a plot of the weekly deaths in New York compared to those from the flu.

https://ibb.co/R99KRVZ

from: https://medium.com/swlh/misinformation-goes-viral-1aad951e4492

...

I don't get it. So COVID-19 lumps all it's victims into a short span rather than spreading them over the year. Sounds convenient to me.

The flu makes you wait all year long. Try COVID-19, the convenient killer. Now faster acting, halving your time in the ICU.



Do you guys think Larkin is serious about the questions he asks? He certainly appears to be an obnoxious troll. Maybe he really doesn't understand people enough (along with science) to appreciate that he questions sound like he is baiting people. He did say he is autistic. Is he really that unaware of how other people feel?

No wonder he likes Trump.

John asks perfectly reasonable questions that, for some reason,
a few people aren't able to understand or process. Whooooosh.

I find him delightful, articulate, thoughtful, easy to understand,
and usually right.

Asking questions can be an attempt to get people to think things
out, rather than just telling them something. If someone considers
a question and formulates answers in his own mind, then perhaps
he'll see the thing whole, and understand it entirely.

But the communications can fail if the two minds attempting lack
sufficient commonalities.

Try explaining nuclear physics to a cow. The cow will listen patiently,
courteously, patronizing you. When you're done, she'll belch. And when
you leave she'll gossip with the other cows, pitying you, the loon,
rambling, and incoherent.

Cheers,
James Arthur

 

[Bill Sloman]

On Wednesday, April 22, 2020 at 2:42:36 PM UTC+10, John Doe wrote:

Ricky C <gnuarm.deletethisbit@gmail.com> wrote:

whit3rd wrote:
John Doe wrote:

Over twice as many people die from the flu than so far have died
from the coronavirus.

Meaningless without matching timescales.

He's saying if we exit the lock down we can play catchup!

I'm saying you are a blathering idiot.

John Doe says a lot things like that. He really is an idiot, so it doesn't signify.

> If you want to provide the timescale, go for it...

He hasn't understood what was actually being said, which is typical.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

 

[Ricky C]

On Wednesday, April 22, 2020 at 2:35:06 AM UTC-4, Tom Gardner wrote:

On 21/04/20 17:27, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:

But seasonal colds and flu do go away. This one is almost gone from a
lot of countries.

That's "gone" in the way that plague is gone from the US (it
is actually endemic in the SW). Given the right conditions,
both will reappear.

That's a lack of knowledge on the part of both of you. The plague lives in rodents and their fleas. You can get rid of it in people, but it will reappear because you haven't gotten rid of the germ in the rodent population.

Once you rid the US of SARS=CoV-2 it is gone (unless you have infected pet pandolins). You just have to keep it out from other infected countries. It's looking like we may be the last country in the world to get rid of this disease. We can't even keep it from continuing to spread in the human population without worrying about pandolins.

--

Rick C.

-++- Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
-++- Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

 

[Tom Gardner]

On 21/04/20 18:47, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:

On Tue, 21 Apr 2020 18:07:25 +0100, Tom Gardner
spamjunk@blueyonder.co.uk> wrote:

On 21/04/20 17:24, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Tue, 21 Apr 2020 15:40:24 +0100, Tom Gardner
spamjunk@blueyonder.co.uk> wrote:

On 21/04/20 15:14, Ricky C wrote:
On Tuesday, April 21, 2020 at 5:27:02 AM UTC-4, Tom Gardner wrote:
On 21/04/20 06:03, Bill Sloman wrote:
On Tuesday, April 21, 2020 at 11:34:44 AM UTC+10, dagmarg...@yahoo.com
wrote:
On Monday, April 20, 2020 at 7:31:55 PM UTC-4, Ricky C wrote:
On Monday, April 20, 2020 at 5:43:01 PM UTC-4, dagmarg...@yahoo.com
wrote:

What makes you think that when people come out of lockdown,
however long, that they won't get sick (same as without a
lockdown)?

They will if we exit the lock down too soon. If we wait until the
current case numbers are low enough we will be able to do the things
we weren't able to do in January and February and March... testing,
contact tracking and testing. Oh yeah, with MORE testing. Then we
do impose literal quarantine on anyone in contact with anyone
infected. Do it with the force of law, no exceptions.

That doesn't work. The virus will still be there, and most people
carrying it won't even know they have it.

James Arthur doesn't understand contact tracing. If you've been in
contact with somebody who was infectious (even if they didn't know it)
you get told to self isolate for 14 days after the contact.

Just so.

In the UK there is legislation that can compel people to isolate
themselves, but I haven't heard of it being used (yet). I wonder if it is
actually practical legislation.


"Flattening the curve" in China meant that they ended up with 4,632
deaths, and nobody seems to be dying of Covid-19 there any more.

Yet.

The IC study and previous flu epidemics have had multiple peaks, months
apart.

Do you understand the difference between a disease that is allowed to roam
the earth freely and one that is tracked and hunted down and killed???

China and South Korea have both reduced the number of infected to adequately
low numbers that they can reopen their businesses at least to some extent.
Once the virus is eliminated it can't come back other than from the outside.
They take adequate measures to assure the disease is not allowed to return
without being hunted down immediately.


Your big unproven assumption is that is can be completely "hunted
down and killed" or "eliminated". I, and the WHO amongst others,
don't believe that.

Without that, there /will/ be several waves of peaks, months apart.

It's always interesting to hear people, especially amateurs, do
control theory by guesswork. Most people say A causes B and B causes A
so it must oscillate.

There are all sorts of crazy waveforms predicted for this one. The
most common viral infection curve, a mostly Gaussian impulse, is
rarely seen in the press.

Nobody cares what the exact shape will be!

But the lockdown was supposed to "flatten the curve."

The curve doesn't matter?

It almost certainly did, and it doesn't matter that much.

The key point is the R value: >1 and the numbers
increase, <1 and they fall.

Unless there is /reason/ (i.e not emotion, not hope) to
believe otherwise, then history is a reasonable starting
point.



Not the stuff I've seen.

https://science.sciencemag.org/content/sci/367/6485/1414.2/F1.large.jpg?width=800&height=600&carousel=1

Some are worse!

I'm not sure what your point is.

History indicates several peaks over years rather than months.

If you are predicting that we will have another cold and flu season
next winter, I agree.

Given this virus' characteristics and the lack of a vaccine,
it will be far more frequent than yearly

 

[Martin Brown]

On 21/04/2020 15:40, Tom Gardner wrote:

On 21/04/20 15:14, Ricky C wrote:
On Tuesday, April 21, 2020 at 5:27:02 AM UTC-4, Tom Gardner wrote:
On 21/04/20 06:03, Bill Sloman wrote:

"Flattening the curve" in China meant that they ended up with 4,632
deaths, and nobody seems to be dying of Covid-19 there any more.

Yet.

The IC study and previous flu epidemics have had multiple peaks, months
apart.

Do you understand the difference between a disease that is allowed to
roam
the earth freely and one that is tracked and hunted down and killed???

The cat is already so far out of the bag that the only way we will ever
eliminate it now is if an effective vaccine can be made against it.

That has worked for smallpox and almost for polio.

Even *with* a vaccine we may still struggle to obtain full coverage
thanks to the the anti-vaxxer movement and the conspiracy theory nutters
who are torching mobile phone masts. I expect other fringe groups too.

China and South Korea have both reduced the number of infected to
adequately
low numbers that they can reopen their businesses at least to some
extent.
Once the virus is eliminated it can't come back other than from the
outside.
They take adequate measures  to assure the disease is not allowed to
return
without being hunted down immediately.

Their lockdown was much more draconian than the UK or USA. I'm not sure
any western population would tolerate the measures they used in China.

Your big unproven assumption is that is can be completely "hunted
down and killed" or "eliminated". I, and the WHO amongst others,
don't believe that.

That there is now a resurgence in Japan where for a very long time it
seemed to be well under control does not bode well for removing the
lockdown safely without having an uncontrolled resurgence of Covid.

It is basically just too good at evading containment measures when such
a high proportion of the population can be unwitting carriers.

Singapore is also going haywire with Covid infections in the underclass
of overcrowded migrant labourers they employ to do their dirty work.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/17/singapores-cramped-migrant-worker-dorms-hide-covid-19-surge-risk

> Without that, there /will/ be several waves of peaks, months apart.

To be fair the Imperial paper did anticipate that possibility and
assumed bang bang imposition of relaxing and then lockdowns to prevent
the disease swamping the health system. The odd thing was that they also
dropped all measures at the end and had a sharper higher spike result.
(perhaps due to timing at the start of winter - November is the start of
flu season and the code has its roots in flu epidemic modelling)

--
Regards,
Martin Brown

 

[Bill Sloman]

On Wednesday, April 22, 2020 at 4:07:56 PM UTC+10, dagmarg...@yahoo.com wrote:

On Tuesday, April 21, 2020 at 10:28:28 PM UTC-4, Ricky C wrote:
On Tuesday, April 21, 2020 at 10:09:28 PM UTC-4, keith wright wrote:
On Tuesday, 21 April 2020 17:55:14 UTC-7, John Doe wrote:
...
Over twice as many people die from the flu than so far have died
from the coronavirus.

Covid-19 is making a good attempt at overtaking the flu in a short time unless we do something about it:

This is a plot of the weekly deaths in New York compared to those from the flu.

https://ibb.co/R99KRVZ

from: https://medium.com/swlh/misinformation-goes-viral-1aad951e4492

...

I don't get it. So COVID-19 lumps all it's victims into a short span rather than spreading them over the year. Sounds convenient to me.

The flu makes you wait all year long. Try COVID-19, the convenient killer. Now faster acting, halving your time in the ICU.

Do you guys think Larkin is serious about the questions he asks? He certainly appears to be an obnoxious troll. Maybe he really doesn't understand people enough (along with science) to appreciate that he questions sound like he is baiting people. He did say he is autistic. Is he really that unaware of how other people feel?

No wonder he likes Trump.

John asks perfectly reasonable questions that, for some reason,
a few people aren't able to understand or process. Whooooosh.

James Arthur's idea of a perfectly reasonable question is something he is able to hang a bit more right-wing propaganda onto. That makes John Larkin a useful idiot.

I find him delightful, articulate, thoughtful, easy to understand,
and usually right.

Which means far-right. John Larkin doesn't understand enough about politics to have any kind of actual political stance, but he's a gullible twit (outside of electronics) and happy to fall for the sort right-twaddle that James Arthur peddles. This level of gullibility may be rare enough to make him attractive to James Arthur, who may have trouble finding people silly enough to agree with (or at least be tolerant of) his bizarre right-wing lunacies.

Asking questions can be an attempt to get people to think things
out, rather than just telling them something. If someone considers
a question and formulates answers in his own mind, then perhaps
he'll see the thing whole, and understand it entirely.

Not something that John Larkin seems capable of managing.

But the communications can fail if the two minds attempting lack
sufficient commonalities.

Far-right-wing lunatics run into this quite often, but are surprisingly resistant to the idea that they are the people who are out of touch with reality.

Try explaining nuclear physics to a cow. The cow will listen patiently,
courteously, patronizing you. When you're done, she'll belch. And when
you leave she'll gossip with the other cows, pitying you, the loon,
rambling, and incoherent.

John Larkin on climate change comes to mind. He'll explain what he has learned from climate change denial propaganda web-sites, and feels hurt when people are unreceptive to his neatly organised - if utterly fallacious - ideas.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

 

[Bill Sloman]

On Wednesday, April 22, 2020 at 2:44:41 PM UTC+10, John Doe wrote:

whit3rd <whit3rd@gmail.com> wrote:

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Subject: Re: Claim That Covid-19 Came From Lab In China Completely Unfounded, Scientists Say
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On Tuesday, April 21, 2020 at 5:55:14 PM UTC-7, John Doe wrote:

Over twice as many people die from the flu than so far have died
from the coronavirus.

Meaningless without matching timescales.

There's a capability of healthcare that has limits (number of beds
etc.), and the count of active cases , on a timescale, could touch
that limit, meaning our healthcare system would be broken, in
addition to the viral ailment.

Only in a vacuum.

Yes, this is a planet orbiting in a vacuum.
Was that supposed to be meaningful?


Florida has more available/unused hospital beds now than it had
before the coronavirus.

Is that because they've stopped a lot of routine healthcare like hospitals here?

My dentist appointment, made over a month ago, has been rescheduled to late May.

A lazy troll...

John Doe really is a top-posting troll, and silly enough to think that it's worth his while to call anybody else a troll. Whit3rd is less like a troll than most of the people who post here, which makes John Doe more obviously idiotic than usual, not that that signifies much.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

 

[Tom Gardner]

On 22/04/20 09:03, Martin Brown wrote:

On 21/04/2020 15:40, Tom Gardner wrote:
On 21/04/20 15:14, Ricky C wrote:
On Tuesday, April 21, 2020 at 5:27:02 AM UTC-4, Tom Gardner wrote:
On 21/04/20 06:03, Bill Sloman wrote:

"Flattening the curve" in China meant that they ended up with 4,632
deaths, and nobody seems to be dying of Covid-19 there any more.

Yet.

The IC study and previous flu epidemics have had multiple peaks,
months apart.

Do you understand the difference between a disease that is allowed to
roam the earth freely and one that is tracked and hunted down and
killed???

The cat is already so far out of the bag that the only way we will ever
eliminate it now is if an effective vaccine can be made against it.

I strongly suspect that is the case, but it is too much of
a jump for some members of this forum (even ignoring the
popup trolls like Flyguy).

Hence there may be (some limited) value in making less
unequivocal statements.

That has worked for smallpox and almost for polio.

Even *with* a vaccine we may still struggle to obtain full coverage thanks to
the the anti-vaxxer movement and the conspiracy theory nutters who are
torching mobile phone masts. I expect other fringe groups too.

Yes

Although we can hope than the casual and less rabid
anti-vaxxers will have pause for thought. It would
be amusing to see their reaction to mandatory vaccination.

China and South Korea have both reduced the number of infected to
adequately low numbers that they can reopen their businesses at least to
some extent. Once the virus is eliminated it can't come back other than
from the outside. They take adequate measures to assure the disease is
not allowed to return without being hunted down immediately.

Their lockdown was much more draconian than the UK or USA. I'm not sure any
western population would tolerate the measures they used in China.

Your big unproven assumption is that is can be completely "hunted down and
killed" or "eliminated". I, and the WHO amongst others, don't believe
that.

That there is now a resurgence in Japan where for a very long time it seemed
to be well under control does not bode well for removing the lockdown safely
without having an uncontrolled resurgence of Covid.

It is basically just too good at evading containment measures when such a
high proportion of the population can be unwitting carriers.

Singapore is also going haywire with Covid infections in the underclass of
overcrowded migrant labourers they employ to do their dirty work.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/17/singapores-cramped-migrant-worker-dorms-hide-covid-19-surge-risk

It was obvious (to me at least) just as things were
hotting up in Wuhan, that a key indicator would be
what happened as restrictions were relaxed.

Even then I had hopes and fears.

Without that, there /will/ be several waves of peaks, months apart.

To be fair the Imperial paper did anticipate that possibility and assumed
bang bang imposition of relaxing and then lockdowns to prevent the disease
swamping the health system. The odd thing was that they also dropped all
measures at the end and had a sharper higher spike result. (perhaps due to
timing at the start of winter - November is the start of flu season and the
code has its roots in flu epidemic modelling)

That is one of the sources for my belief.

It is always helpful to avoid multiple independent
statements based on a common imperfect source from
being taken more seriously than staements from multiple
independent sources. But you knew that.

 

[Bill Sloman]

On Wednesday, April 22, 2020 at 6:03:08 PM UTC+10, Martin Brown wrote:

On 21/04/2020 15:40, Tom Gardner wrote:
On 21/04/20 15:14, Ricky C wrote:
On Tuesday, April 21, 2020 at 5:27:02 AM UTC-4, Tom Gardner wrote:
On 21/04/20 06:03, Bill Sloman wrote:

"Flattening the curve" in China meant that they ended up with 4,632
deaths, and nobody seems to be dying of Covid-19 there any more.

Yet.

The IC study and previous flu epidemics have had multiple peaks, months
apart.

Do you understand the difference between a disease that is allowed to
roam the earth freely and one that is tracked and hunted down and killed???

The cat is already so far out of the bag that the only way we will ever
eliminate it now is if an effective vaccine can be made against it.

That has worked for smallpox and almost for polio.

Even *with* a vaccine we may still struggle to obtain full coverage
thanks to the the anti-vaxxer movement and the conspiracy theory nutters
who are torching mobile phone masts. I expect other fringe groups too.

China and South Korea have both reduced the number of infected to adequately low numbers that they can reopen their businesses at least to some
extent. Once the virus is eliminated it can't come back other than from the outside. They take adequate measures  to assure the disease is not allowed to return without being hunted down immediately.

Their lock-down was much more draconian than the UK or USA. I'm not sure
any western population would tolerate the measures they used in China.

Australia seems to have managed it. It has been argued that the lock-down mainly serves to make contact tracing easier, and the contact tracing - with isolation of people who might have been infected by contact with a confirmed case - is the more effective part of the Chinese and South Korean success. Since South Korea never actually locked down, this is plausible. Australia does seem to be doing a lot of contact tracing on the relatively few cases we have got.

<snip>

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

 

On Tue, 21 Apr 2020 22:45:55 -0700 (PDT), dagmargoodboat@yahoo.com
wrote:

On Tuesday, April 21, 2020 at 10:07:56 PM UTC-4, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Tue, 21 Apr 2020 17:27:14 -0700 (PDT), dagmargoodboat@yahoo.com
wrote:

On Tuesday, April 21, 2020 at 12:27:44 PM UTC-4, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Tue, 21 Apr 2020 07:57:16 -0700 (PDT), dagmargoodboat@yahoo.com
wrote:
On Tuesday, April 21, 2020 at 10:40:29 AM UTC-4, Tom Gardner wrote:

Your big unproven assumption is that is can be completely "hunted
down and killed" or "eliminated". I, and the WHO amongst others,
don't believe that.

Without that, there /will/ be several waves of peaks, months apart.

Right -- you're absolutely right. There's no way to hunt down something
lying hidden in the overwhelming majority of people harboring it. It's
everywhere, and like kudzu, privet, fire ants, and killer bees, it's not
going away. The genii's out of the bottle.

But seasonal colds and flu do go away. This one is almost gone from a
lot of countries.

I don't think that's correct. Prevalence falls dramatically
out-of-season, but AIUI they persist in the population (people
still get flu mid-summer, just not as often) and resurge when
conditions favor (promote / facilitate) effective propagation.

If every cold and flu virus lingered forever, we'd all be dead. We'd
get 50 infections at a time all year.

FLU SEASONALITY
"While seasonal influenza (flu) viruses are detected year-round in the United States, flu viruses are most common during the fall and winter."
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/season/flu-season.htm

I wonder why we don't.

a) Sub-optimal propagation conditions, seasonal, reduce exposures
b) We develop immunity?

Cheers,
James

Sure we develop immunity, or at least some immunity. Just enough to
allow a background level of essentially continuous (seasonally
modulated) viral attack. Why are we so friendly to viruses?




--

John Larkin Highland Technology, Inc

Science teaches us to doubt.

Claude Bernard

 

[Bill Sloman]

On Wednesday, April 22, 2020 at 8:28:20 PM UTC+10, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:

On Tue, 21 Apr 2020 22:45:55 -0700 (PDT), dagmargoodboat@yahoo.com
wrote:

On Tuesday, April 21, 2020 at 10:07:56 PM UTC-4, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Tue, 21 Apr 2020 17:27:14 -0700 (PDT), dagmargoodboat@yahoo.com
wrote:

On Tuesday, April 21, 2020 at 12:27:44 PM UTC-4, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Tue, 21 Apr 2020 07:57:16 -0700 (PDT), dagmargoodboat@yahoo.com
wrote:
On Tuesday, April 21, 2020 at 10:40:29 AM UTC-4, Tom Gardner wrote:

FLU SEASONALITY
"While seasonal influenza (flu) viruses are detected year-round in the United States, flu viruses are most common during the fall and winter."
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/season/flu-season.htm

I wonder why we don't.

a) Sub-optimal propagation conditions, seasonal, reduce exposures
b) We develop immunity?

Sure we develop immunity, or at least some immunity.

We probably develop perfect immunity to any flu virus that happens to attack us (and doesn't manage to kill us before we develop that immunity).

Flu viruses mutate frequently, and far enough that our immune systems don't recognise them any more, and we have to go to the trouble of developing a new - and slightly different - antibody to go after the new and slightly different virus.

Just enough to allow a background level of essentially continuous (seasonally
modulated) viral attack. Why are we so friendly to viruses?

We aren't. They keep on changing until they can get around the defenses that worked against their recent ancestors.

This is Biology 101 - did you skip those lectures at Tulane?

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

 

On Tue, 21 Apr 2020 23:07:50 -0700 (PDT), dagmargoodboat@yahoo.com
wrote:

On Tuesday, April 21, 2020 at 10:28:28 PM UTC-4, Ricky C wrote:
On Tuesday, April 21, 2020 at 10:09:28 PM UTC-4, keith wright wrote:
On Tuesday, 21 April 2020 17:55:14 UTC-7, John Doe wrote:
...
Over twice as many people die from the flu than so far have died
from the coronavirus.

Covid-19 is making a good attempt at overtaking the flu in a short time unless we do something about it:

This is a plot of the weekly deaths in New York compared to those from the flu.

https://ibb.co/R99KRVZ

from: https://medium.com/swlh/misinformation-goes-viral-1aad951e4492

...

I don't get it. So COVID-19 lumps all it's victims into a short span rather than spreading them over the year. Sounds convenient to me.

The flu makes you wait all year long. Try COVID-19, the convenient killer. Now faster acting, halving your time in the ICU.



Do you guys think Larkin is serious about the questions he asks? He certainly appears to be an obnoxious troll. Maybe he really doesn't understand people enough (along with science) to appreciate that he questions sound like he is baiting people. He did say he is autistic. Is he really that unaware of how other people feel?

No wonder he likes Trump.

John asks perfectly reasonable questions that, for some reason,
a few people aren't able to understand or process. Whooooosh.

I ask a lot of perfectly unreasonable questions too. That's the way to
discover things.

Most people, especially here, are hostile to ideas. They shoot down
concepts instead of playing with them.

Concept: viruses are a component of horizontal evolution. They hurt
individuals but help species, so we tolerate some.

I find him delightful, articulate, thoughtful, easy to understand,
and usually right.

Asking questions can be an attempt to get people to think things
out, rather than just telling them something. If someone considers
a question and formulates answers in his own mind, then perhaps
he'll see the thing whole, and understand it entirely.

But the communications can fail if the two minds attempting lack
sufficient commonalities.

It's hard to brainstorm, super hard in a public forum.



--

John Larkin Highland Technology, Inc

Science teaches us to doubt.

Claude Bernard