Guest
On Wed, 22 Apr 2020 07:35:01 +0100, Tom Gardner
<spamjunk@blueyonder.co.uk> wrote:
C19 will burn out, and its descendents will hit us in the future. Some
day we may understand this ongoing dance between viruses and people.
The freeways here are blasting along at 65 MPH. I can get to work in 7
minutes. I can jay walk across Potrero Avenue because there are hardly
any cars.
But I can see the traffic building up every day, even as the lockdown
ratchets up. I'll have to resume driving back streets to work soon.
--
John Larkin Highland Technology, Inc
Science teaches us to doubt.
Claude Bernard
<spamjunk@blueyonder.co.uk> wrote:
On 21/04/20 17:27, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Tue, 21 Apr 2020 07:57:16 -0700 (PDT), dagmargoodboat@yahoo.com
wrote:
On Tuesday, April 21, 2020 at 10:40:29 AM UTC-4, Tom Gardner wrote:
On 21/04/20 15:14, Ricky C wrote:
On Tuesday, April 21, 2020 at 5:27:02 AM UTC-4, Tom Gardner wrote:
On 21/04/20 06:03, Bill Sloman wrote:
On Tuesday, April 21, 2020 at 11:34:44 AM UTC+10, dagmarg...@yahoo.com
wrote:
On Monday, April 20, 2020 at 7:31:55 PM UTC-4, Ricky C wrote:
On Monday, April 20, 2020 at 5:43:01 PM UTC-4, dagmarg...@yahoo.com
wrote:
What makes you think that when people come out of lockdown,
however long, that they won't get sick (same as without a
lockdown)?
They will if we exit the lock down too soon. If we wait until the
current case numbers are low enough we will be able to do the things
we weren't able to do in January and February and March... testing,
contact tracking and testing. Oh yeah, with MORE testing. Then we
do impose literal quarantine on anyone in contact with anyone
infected. Do it with the force of law, no exceptions.
That doesn't work. The virus will still be there, and most people
carrying it won't even know they have it.
James Arthur doesn't understand contact tracing. If you've been in
contact with somebody who was infectious (even if they didn't know it)
you get told to self isolate for 14 days after the contact.
Just so.
In the UK there is legislation that can compel people to isolate
themselves, but I haven't heard of it being used (yet). I wonder if it is
actually practical legislation.
"Flattening the curve" in China meant that they ended up with 4,632
deaths, and nobody seems to be dying of Covid-19 there any more.
Yet.
The IC study and previous flu epidemics have had multiple peaks, months
apart.
Do you understand the difference between a disease that is allowed to roam
the earth freely and one that is tracked and hunted down and killed???
China and South Korea have both reduced the number of infected to adequately
low numbers that they can reopen their businesses at least to some extent.
Once the virus is eliminated it can't come back other than from the outside.
They take adequate measures to assure the disease is not allowed to return
without being hunted down immediately.
Your big unproven assumption is that is can be completely "hunted
down and killed" or "eliminated". I, and the WHO amongst others,
don't believe that.
Without that, there /will/ be several waves of peaks, months apart.
Right -- you're absolutely right. There's no way to hunt down something
lying hidden in the overwhelming majority of people harboring it. It's
everywhere, and like kudzu, privet, fire ants, and killer bees, it's not
going away. The genii's out of the bottle.
But seasonal colds and flu do go away. This one is almost gone from a
lot of countries.
That's "gone" in the way that plague is gone from the US (it
is actually endemic in the SW). Given the right conditions,
both will reappear.
C19 will burn out, and its descendents will hit us in the future. Some
day we may understand this ongoing dance between viruses and people.
The difference between covid and is that the plague is more
easily treatable (antibiotics, fatality rate 11%), it is less
transmissable in modern societies, and the conditions are
unlikely to reoccur.
And yes of course there will be a resurgence when people start
circulating again -- it's unavoidable. So we manage it. Look for
vaccines. Test treatments. And we get back to work.
I'm at work!
I walked into the road without looking!
(which is unlikely to be a problem with the 1960s-level of
traffic around here)
The freeways here are blasting along at 65 MPH. I can get to work in 7
minutes. I can jay walk across Potrero Avenue because there are hardly
any cars.
But I can see the traffic building up every day, even as the lockdown
ratchets up. I'll have to resume driving back streets to work soon.
--
John Larkin Highland Technology, Inc
Science teaches us to doubt.
Claude Bernard