B
Bill Sloman
Guest
On Tuesday, April 7, 2020 at 11:22:29 AM UTC+10, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
What's unknown about the current situation is how many people get infected by Covid-19 by one person who has got infected.
In society as it was before lock-downs and contract tracing, that was about 2.5 to three people, on average (unless you were addicted to touchy-feely religious services that went of for several hours, where the virus could do quite a bit better).
Vigorous contact tracing can cut that right down - to about one new infectee to about a dozen infected people.
Rigorous social isolation can get it almost as low, but there are a lot of less-than-conscientious people around.
> This interests me because I am a connoisseur of wrongness.
He's also an enthusiastic exponent of getting things wrong. When he does it with circuits, it's experimentation and he notices when they don't work.
Which in practice mostly means disagreeing with John Larkin's superficial adn wrong-headed misapprehensions.
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Bill Sloman, Sydney
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Bill Sloman, Sydney
On Mon, 6 Apr 2020 12:46:00 -0700 (PDT), Flyguy
soar2morrow@yahoo.com> wrote:
On Monday, April 6, 2020 at 8:09:45 AM UTC-7, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Mon, 6 Apr 2020 09:24:41 +0100, Martin Brown
'''newspam'''@nezumi.demon.co.uk> wrote:
On 05/04/2020 15:49, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Sun, 5 Apr 2020 14:23:01 +0100, Martin Brown
'''newspam'''@nezumi.demon.co.uk> wrote:
On 04/04/2020 01:00, John Larkin wrote:
On Fri, 3 Apr 2020 16:40:42 -0700 (PDT), whit3rd <whit3rd@gmail.com
wrote:
On Friday, April 3, 2020 at 12:26:33 PM UTC-7, Commander Kinsey wrote:
On Fri, 03 Apr 2020 02:00:21 +0100, whit3rd <whit3rd@gmail.com> wrote:
On Thursday, April 2, 2020 at 11:12:05 AM UTC-7, John Larkin wrote:
The lockdowns are trashing the economy, which hurts people, and are
probably not going to save many lives.
UK modelling suggests it may decrease the death toll by an order of
magnitude or so. That is a distinctly non-trivial contribution.
Oh. Computer modeling says that? How silly of me.
OK. *STOP* using spice then - that is also a computer model.
I accurately simulate linear systems with known accurate component
models and initial conditions. Nobody accurately simulates chaotic
systems with bad componant models and unknown initial conditions, but
that doesn't stop them from trying, and generating press releases.
The more people you predict killed, the more likely that The
Associated Press will spread your name. So there is a
dead-bodies-stacked-up bidding war based on infallible Computer
Simulations by Top Scientists. Has any quotable source got to a
billion deaths yet?
Even worse, the initial conditions were either lied about, withheld or both.
Or unknown.
The current conditions are, if anything, even more unknown.
What's unknown about the current situation is how many people get infected by Covid-19 by one person who has got infected.
In society as it was before lock-downs and contract tracing, that was about 2.5 to three people, on average (unless you were addicted to touchy-feely religious services that went of for several hours, where the virus could do quite a bit better).
Vigorous contact tracing can cut that right down - to about one new infectee to about a dozen infected people.
Rigorous social isolation can get it almost as low, but there are a lot of less-than-conscientious people around.
> This interests me because I am a connoisseur of wrongness.
He's also an enthusiastic exponent of getting things wrong. When he does it with circuits, it's experimentation and he notices when they don't work.
I am amazed by how many people can get together and reinforce their mutual
wrongness.
Which in practice mostly means disagreeing with John Larkin's superficial adn wrong-headed misapprehensions.
--
Bill Sloman, Sydney
--
Bill Sloman, Sydney