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David Brown
Guest
On 12/04/2020 21:28, Ricky C wrote:
Yes - but I am also saying that you need a vaccine to eliminate it. I
don't think it will be practical to do so without a vaccine - it has
spread too far and wide to be contained.
Bats are the prime candidate for Ebola and related viruses, but it is
not known for sure.
Hopefully, yes.
It is likely that this particular Corona virus was the result of a
mutation or combination from one or more other corona viruses. Whether
that occurred in a human or an animal is unknown. But if it were an
animal and it hasn't spread to other animals, then maybe it is only
significantly infectious in humans and therefore could be eliminated.
(It has been found in some other animals, but only a few, and their
infectiousness is not yet known.)
I don't believe it is realistic to get good enough testing and tracking
world-wide in order to eliminate it completely without mass vaccination.
It could certainly be controllable, but not eliminated.
(This is my estimation and extrapolation, rather than a known fact.)
Remember, recovery from Covid-19 does not appear to give very good
immunity - so all you need is a few pockets of it hidden away somewhere,
and the potential for new outbreaks will be there.
(One can hope that they would be caught and isolated faster now, of course.)
Because you are only one country. To eliminate the virus anywhere, it
needs to be eliminated /everywhere/. Maybe the USA can do the kind of
tracking that South Korea managed (I doubt it - Americans are not as
obedient. Freedom works both ways). But you won't get that same
tracking across India, Africa, war-torn Syria, Afghanistan, etc.
On Sunday, April 12, 2020 at 12:27:45 PM UTC-4, David Brown wrote:
On 12/04/2020 04:52, Ricky C wrote:
That's your straw man argument. We don't need a vaccine if we
can eliminate the virus. Do they still vaccinate for smallpox?
Smallpox was eliminated by vaccines - so we don't need vaccines for
it /now/.
So you are agreeing with me that if we eliminate the virus we won't
need a vaccine?
Yes - but I am also saying that you need a vaccine to eliminate it. I
don't think it will be practical to do so without a vaccine - it has
spread too far and wide to be contained.
Some diseases are hard to eradicate because they live in other
animals or even the soil like anthrax. We don't know where the crap
Ebola comes from.
Bats are the prime candidate for Ebola and related viruses, but it is
not known for sure.
But coronavirus? Yeah, it may have leapt from
another animal previously, but there is no indication we are being
reinfected by the same means. Get rid of it in humans and we will be
rid of it forever.
Hopefully, yes.
It is likely that this particular Corona virus was the result of a
mutation or combination from one or more other corona viruses. Whether
that occurred in a human or an animal is unknown. But if it were an
animal and it hasn't spread to other animals, then maybe it is only
significantly infectious in humans and therefore could be eliminated.
(It has been found in some other animals, but only a few, and their
infectiousness is not yet known.)
Not an easy task, but once we get the infection numbers down,
aggressive contact tracing has a lot less impact than the shutdown we
are presently in.
I don't believe it is realistic to get good enough testing and tracking
world-wide in order to eliminate it completely without mass vaccination.
It could certainly be controllable, but not eliminated.
(This is my estimation and extrapolation, rather than a known fact.)
Remember, recovery from Covid-19 does not appear to give very good
immunity - so all you need is a few pockets of it hidden away somewhere,
and the potential for new outbreaks will be there.
(One can hope that they would be caught and isolated faster now, of course.)
Measles was almost eliminated by vaccines, but there so many
"anti-vaxer" morons that the elimination failed, and there are
still outbreaks - so kids still need the vaccines. The same
applies to polio.
Covid-19 can, hopefully, be eliminated by vaccines. Whether it
will or not is another matter - but good vaccines will certainly
prevent it being a problem.
But can Covid-19 be eliminated /without/ a vaccine? I don't think
so. It is far too wide-spread for that. It can be kept at bay by
other measures, and some places can be kept free of it, but if
there is freedom of movement, outbreaks will always return.
Wide spread is not the issue. The shutdown will allow us to get the
numbers to a point that contact tracing can confine the disease.
If South Korea can do it, why can't we?
Because you are only one country. To eliminate the virus anywhere, it
needs to be eliminated /everywhere/. Maybe the USA can do the kind of
tracking that South Korea managed (I doubt it - Americans are not as
obedient. Freedom works both ways). But you won't get that same
tracking across India, Africa, war-torn Syria, Afghanistan, etc.