Guest
https://www.forbes.com/sites/annashedletsky/2020/02/07/coronavirus-hits-electronics-manufacturing-hard-companies-are-scrambling/#75d2b797369c
(Electronic) Factories have been shut down as part of the unprecedented extended Lunar New Year,
which was supposed to end on January 30, and has now been extended until February 9
(not a chance) at the earliest.
(local government requires 14 days quarantine after reporting to factory)
https://www.wsj.com/articles/coronavirus-cases-on-cruise-ship-climb-to-136-11581322993
Coronavirus Cases on Cruise Ship Climb to 135
(they need more flesh air)
(should sent the ship to warmer climate, Australia?)
https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/08/health/coronavirus-hospital-infections-frieden/index.html
A study published Friday in the medical journal JAMA found that 41% of the first 138 patients
diagnosed at one hospital in Wuhan, China, were presumed to be infected in that hospital.
(3000 patients in newly built medical concentration camps will probably all die)
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/health/2020/02/06/coronavirus-wuhan-china-recurring-winter-illness-flu/4665482002/
Last week, researchers from the University of Hong Kong estimated 75,815 had been infected
in Wuhan as of Jan. 25 and projected the epidemic would double every 6.4 days.
https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20200210-coronavirus-finding-a-cure-to-fight-the-symptoms
Donnelly and her colleagues have estimated the new coronavirus to have a
reproduction number of about 2.6
--- conservative estimates ---
W0 W1 W2 W3 W4 W5 W6
R0 12/30 1/6 1/13 1/20 1/27 2/3 2/10
WH 2.0 41 192 905 2766 13004 26008 52017
LS 1.8 180 324 583 1049
RS 1.8 197 354 638 1148
RW 1.8 137 246 443 798
G2 1.8 1120 2016 3628 6531
SH 1.5 98 147 220 330
BJ 1.5 113 169 254 381
HK 1.8 17 30
JP 1.5 100 150
US 1.5 11 16
Assumptions:
Ro for W0 to W3 was 4.7
35% spreaded from G0 (Ground 0) to G1 and G2
G0 is saturated, so actual infection rate is capped
G0 daily cremation of 1500, 40% from hospital, 60% from home
G1 (RS, RW, LS) are almost saturated
G2 is rest of China
MP Miltary police and army are not included
(Electronic) Factories have been shut down as part of the unprecedented extended Lunar New Year,
which was supposed to end on January 30, and has now been extended until February 9
(not a chance) at the earliest.
(local government requires 14 days quarantine after reporting to factory)
https://www.wsj.com/articles/coronavirus-cases-on-cruise-ship-climb-to-136-11581322993
Coronavirus Cases on Cruise Ship Climb to 135
(they need more flesh air)
(should sent the ship to warmer climate, Australia?)
https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/08/health/coronavirus-hospital-infections-frieden/index.html
A study published Friday in the medical journal JAMA found that 41% of the first 138 patients
diagnosed at one hospital in Wuhan, China, were presumed to be infected in that hospital.
(3000 patients in newly built medical concentration camps will probably all die)
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/health/2020/02/06/coronavirus-wuhan-china-recurring-winter-illness-flu/4665482002/
Last week, researchers from the University of Hong Kong estimated 75,815 had been infected
in Wuhan as of Jan. 25 and projected the epidemic would double every 6.4 days.
https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20200210-coronavirus-finding-a-cure-to-fight-the-symptoms
Donnelly and her colleagues have estimated the new coronavirus to have a
reproduction number of about 2.6
--- conservative estimates ---
W0 W1 W2 W3 W4 W5 W6
R0 12/30 1/6 1/13 1/20 1/27 2/3 2/10
WH 2.0 41 192 905 2766 13004 26008 52017
LS 1.8 180 324 583 1049
RS 1.8 197 354 638 1148
RW 1.8 137 246 443 798
G2 1.8 1120 2016 3628 6531
SH 1.5 98 147 220 330
BJ 1.5 113 169 254 381
HK 1.8 17 30
JP 1.5 100 150
US 1.5 11 16
Assumptions:
Ro for W0 to W3 was 4.7
35% spreaded from G0 (Ground 0) to G1 and G2
G0 is saturated, so actual infection rate is capped
G0 daily cremation of 1500, 40% from hospital, 60% from home
G1 (RS, RW, LS) are almost saturated
G2 is rest of China
MP Miltary police and army are not included