OT: CEO responses to Covid-19

[Winfield Hill]

Today I got emails from the CEOs of three companies
about their actions to protect us against Covid-19.
Walmart said their stores are cleaned daily, with
sanitizing solutions. Subway said they're cleaning
most-touched surfaces once per hour. A local pub-
restaurant, Tavern in the Square, uses disinfectant
wipes to clean and sanitize all tables, phones, POS-
screens, check presenters, booths, chairs and menus
in between guest's seatings. Plus five other items.


--
Thanks,
- Win

 

[Rick C]

On Thursday, March 12, 2020 at 10:17:54 PM UTC-4, Winfield Hill wrote:

Today I got emails from the CEOs of three companies
about their actions to protect us against Covid-19.
Walmart said their stores are cleaned daily, with
sanitizing solutions. Subway said they're cleaning
most-touched surfaces once per hour. A local pub-
restaurant, Tavern in the Square, uses disinfectant
wipes to clean and sanitize all tables, phones, POS-
screens, check presenters, booths, chairs and menus
in between guest's seatings. Plus five other items.

While this may or may not have an impact on the transmission of the COVID-19 disease (hereafter refered to as "the disease"), it is not likely to have much impact on people's willingness to go out and expose themselves to the disease.

You only need to look at the extreme measures they had to take in China to put a dent in the transmission rate to see that we are not going to be able to slow this disease without extreme measures... far beyond wiping and disinfecting surfaces in restaurants. I don't recall all the details of what I've read about disinfecting, but using simple wipes and such aren't really going to do much anyway. For example, disinfecting your hands with an alcohol wipe requires wiping for a fairly long amount of time, minutes I believe. This was from an article that explained how much more effective simple soap and water was than nearly any other agent. Even then it requires rigorous soapy washing for some amount of time longer than we are accustomed to.

Businesses are going to be hurt very badly no matter what. I find it almost funny that our leaders think the important thing is to support the businesses that will be hit hardest while virtually dismissing the actual threat to persons who will become sick and some percentage die. My understanding is that they still will not test someone with light symptoms if there is no history of contact with an infected or exposed person. So while many who have the flu or a cold won't "waste" test kits, there will remain some number of those infected with "the disease" who are not diagnosed and continue to spread the disease.

Personally I have very limited exposure, so even while in the age group more likely to be seriously impacted, I may well never get the disease. On the other hand, it may be months before we can return to our habits of shopping and visiting with friends without worrying about transmitting this disease.

--

Rick C.

- Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
- Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

 

[Bill Sloman]

On Friday, March 13, 2020 at 1:26:21 PM UTC+11, Clifford Heath wrote:

On 13/3/20 1:16 pm, Winfield Hill wrote:
Today I got emails from the CEOs of three companies
about their actions to protect us against Covid-19.
Walmart said their stores are cleaned daily, with
sanitizing solutions. Subway said they're cleaning
most-touched surfaces once per hour. A local pub-
restaurant, Tavern in the Square, uses disinfectant
wipes to clean and sanitize all tables, phones, POS-
screens, check presenters, booths, chairs and menus
in between guest's seatings. Plus five other items.

Trying to protect their profits. All the same, you're more likely to
stay healthy if you stay away. Even if you personally would recover ok,
if you don't get sick, you can't infect other people.

True, and Win is the age group where the mortality rate seems to be around 10%.

I'm thinking of bunkering down until I can get vaccinated against it.

And most of the academic get-together that usually motivate our annual trip to Europe have already been cancelled, which should help us keep a low profile until a vaccine is available.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

 

[Clifford Heath]

On 13/3/20 1:16 pm, Winfield Hill wrote:

Today I got emails from the CEOs of three companies
about their actions to protect us against Covid-19.
Walmart said their stores are cleaned daily, with
sanitizing solutions. Subway said they're cleaning
most-touched surfaces once per hour. A local pub-
restaurant, Tavern in the Square, uses disinfectant
wipes to clean and sanitize all tables, phones, POS-
screens, check presenters, booths, chairs and menus
in between guest's seatings. Plus five other items.

Trying to protect their profits. All the same, you're more likely to
stay healthy if you stay away. Even if you personally would recover ok,
if you don't get sick, you can't infect other people.

CH

 

[Robert Baer]

Clifford Heath wrote:

On 13/3/20 1:16 pm, Winfield Hill wrote:
  Today I got emails from the CEOs of three companies
  about their actions to protect us against Covid-19.
  Walmart said their stores are cleaned daily, with
  sanitizing solutions.  Subway said they're cleaning
  most-touched surfaces once per hour.  A local pub-
  restaurant, Tavern in the Square, uses disinfectant
  wipes to clean and sanitize all tables, phones, POS-
  screens, check presenters, booths, chairs and menus
  in between guest's seatings.  Plus five other items.

Trying to protect their profits. All the same, you're more likely to
stay healthy if you stay away. Even if you personally would recover ok,
if you don't get sick, you can't infect other people.

CH
....and if you do, you are making antibodies for future protection.

 

[Robert Baer]

Bill Sloman wrote:

On Friday, March 13, 2020 at 1:26:21 PM UTC+11, Clifford Heath wrote:
On 13/3/20 1:16 pm, Winfield Hill wrote:
Today I got emails from the CEOs of three companies
about their actions to protect us against Covid-19.
Walmart said their stores are cleaned daily, with
sanitizing solutions. Subway said they're cleaning
most-touched surfaces once per hour. A local pub-
restaurant, Tavern in the Square, uses disinfectant
wipes to clean and sanitize all tables, phones, POS-
screens, check presenters, booths, chairs and menus
in between guest's seatings. Plus five other items.

Trying to protect their profits. All the same, you're more likely to
stay healthy if you stay away. Even if you personally would recover ok,
if you don't get sick, you can't infect other people.

True, and Win is the age group where the mortality rate seems to be around 10%.

I'm thinking of bunkering down until I can get vaccinated against it.

And most of the academic get-together that usually motivate our annual trip to Europe have already been cancelled, which should help us keep a low profile until a vaccine is available.

DIY? Purposely get exposed and then isolate yourself until well.

 

[Robert Baer]

Winfield Hill wrote:

Today I got emails from the CEOs of three companies
about their actions to protect us against Covid-19.
Walmart said their stores are cleaned daily, with
sanitizing solutions. Subway said they're cleaning
most-touched surfaces once per hour. A local pub-
restaurant, Tavern in the Square, uses disinfectant
wipes to clean and sanitize all tables, phones, POS-
screens, check presenters, booths, chairs and menus
in between guest's seatings. Plus five other items.

"Sanitizers" supposedly kill up to 95% germs.
1) What about the remaining 5%? THOSE are obviously dangerous and
might mutate to worse.
2) I understand that what they use is triclosan, which has the
ability to disrupt hormones and contribution to a rise in resistant
strains of bacteria.

Better to use alcohol wipes, best to use the common old-fashioned
soap and water!

 

[Robert Baer]

Rick C wrote:

On Thursday, March 12, 2020 at 10:17:54 PM UTC-4, Winfield Hill wrote:
Today I got emails from the CEOs of three companies
about their actions to protect us against Covid-19.
Walmart said their stores are cleaned daily, with
sanitizing solutions. Subway said they're cleaning
most-touched surfaces once per hour. A local pub-
restaurant, Tavern in the Square, uses disinfectant
wipes to clean and sanitize all tables, phones, POS-
screens, check presenters, booths, chairs and menus
in between guest's seatings. Plus five other items.

While this may or may not have an impact on the transmission of the COVID-19 disease (hereafter refered to as "the disease"), it is not likely to have much impact on people's willingness to go out and expose themselves to the disease.

You only need to look at the extreme measures they had to take in China to put a dent in the transmission rate to see that we are not going to be able to slow this disease without extreme measures... far beyond wiping and disinfecting surfaces in restaurants. I don't recall all the details of what I've read about disinfecting, but using simple wipes and such aren't really going to do much anyway. For example, disinfecting your hands with an alcohol wipe requires wiping for a fairly long amount of time, minutes I believe. This was from an article that explained how much more effective simple soap and water was than nearly any other agent. Even then it requires rigorous soapy washing for some amount of time longer than we are accustomed to.
* Excuse me, but doesn't it spread in the air?

Businesses are going to be hurt very badly no matter what. I find it almost funny that our leaders think the important thing is to support the businesses that will be hit hardest while virtually dismissing the actual threat to persons who will become sick and some percentage die. My understanding is that they still will not test someone with light symptoms if there is no history of contact with an infected or exposed person. So while many who have the flu or a cold won't "waste" test kits, there will remain some number of those infected with "the disease" who are not diagnosed and continue to spread the disease.

Personally I have very limited exposure, so even while in the age group more likely to be seriously impacted, I may well never get the disease. On the other hand, it may be months before we can return to our habits of shopping and visiting with friends without worrying about transmitting this disease.

 

[Rick C]

On Friday, March 13, 2020 at 12:39:58 AM UTC-4, Robert Baer wrote:

Winfield Hill wrote:
Today I got emails from the CEOs of three companies
about their actions to protect us against Covid-19.
Walmart said their stores are cleaned daily, with
sanitizing solutions. Subway said they're cleaning
most-touched surfaces once per hour. A local pub-
restaurant, Tavern in the Square, uses disinfectant
wipes to clean and sanitize all tables, phones, POS-
screens, check presenters, booths, chairs and menus
in between guest's seatings. Plus five other items.


"Sanitizers" supposedly kill up to 95% germs.
1) What about the remaining 5%? THOSE are obviously dangerous and
might mutate to worse.
2) I understand that what they use is triclosan, which has the
ability to disrupt hormones and contribution to a rise in resistant
strains of bacteria.

Better to use alcohol wipes, best to use the common old-fashioned
soap and water!

The "sanitizers" you mention containing triclosan are anti-bacterial, not anti-viral and do little for either.

Alcohol is also not particularly useful unless used appropriately which most people, including hospital workers, fail to do. It is used in places where frequent hand cleaning is required because it is less drying or irritating to skin than soap. But for most of us, soap and water are much more effective at killing/removing all germs including both bacteria and viruses. In fact, soap and water are particularly good at killing viruses by dissolving the lipid layers that hold the virus together, essentially dissolving them into particles.

I have read nothing about triclosan use resulting in resistant strains of bacteria. If it did, they would only be resistant to triclosan which would not be a great loss.

--

Rick C.

+ Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
+ Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

 

[Rick C]

On Friday, March 13, 2020 at 12:46:28 AM UTC-4, Robert Baer wrote:

Rick C wrote:
On Thursday, March 12, 2020 at 10:17:54 PM UTC-4, Winfield Hill wrote:
Today I got emails from the CEOs of three companies
about their actions to protect us against Covid-19.
Walmart said their stores are cleaned daily, with
sanitizing solutions. Subway said they're cleaning
most-touched surfaces once per hour. A local pub-
restaurant, Tavern in the Square, uses disinfectant
wipes to clean and sanitize all tables, phones, POS-
screens, check presenters, booths, chairs and menus
in between guest's seatings. Plus five other items.

While this may or may not have an impact on the transmission of the COVID-19 disease (hereafter refered to as "the disease"), it is not likely to have much impact on people's willingness to go out and expose themselves to the disease.

You only need to look at the extreme measures they had to take in China to put a dent in the transmission rate to see that we are not going to be able to slow this disease without extreme measures... far beyond wiping and disinfecting surfaces in restaurants. I don't recall all the details of what I've read about disinfecting, but using simple wipes and such aren't really going to do much anyway. For example, disinfecting your hands with an alcohol wipe requires wiping for a fairly long amount of time, minutes I believe. This was from an article that explained how much more effective simple soap and water was than nearly any other agent. Even then it requires rigorous soapy washing for some amount of time longer than we are accustomed to.
* Excuse me, but doesn't it spread in the air?

You are excused.

While droplets containing the virus can be spread through the air, the means of picking up the droplets is most often by touching something and then touching your mucous membranes, eyes, nose, mouth. The droplets can remain airborne for some time, but on a surface the virus can live for many hours or even some days. Droplets aren't going to remain airborne nearly that long.

There isn't much you can do about breathing. But you can wash your hands and try not to touch your face until you have washed. There are no guarantees in life, but you can play the smart odds.

--

Rick C.

-- Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
-- Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

 

[Rick C]

On Friday, March 13, 2020 at 2:56:59 AM UTC-4, Mikko OH2HVJ wrote:

Rick C <gnuarm.deletethisbit@gmail.com> writes:

Alcohol is also not particularly useful unless used appropriately
which most people, including hospital workers, fail to do. It is used
in places where frequent hand cleaning is required because it is less
drying or irritating to skin than soap. But for most of us, soap and
water are much more effective at killing/removing all germs including
both bacteria and viruses. In fact, soap and water are particularly
good at killing viruses by dissolving the lipid layers that hold the
virus together, essentially dissolving them into particles.

You're right - soap+water is a good combination. I was quite surprised
when in a biomedical lab they told they use soap to dissolve lipids to
extract RNA. The 'soap' was apparently not something you can get from
the closest supermarket, but also not too far from common cleaning agent.

I have read nothing about triclosan use resulting in resistant strains
of bacteria. If it did, they would only be resistant to triclosan
whichwould not be a great loss.

Unfortunately triclosan resistance is sometimes related to antiobiotic resistance:
https://www.health.harvard.edu/blog/are-antibacterial-products-with-triclosan-fueling-bacterial-resistance-2019080617473

Learn something every day. I would have never expected this. "Based on these data, we hypothesized that triclosan exposure may inadvertently drive bacteria into a state in which they are able to tolerate normally lethal concentrations of antibiotics."

Another point they made is that people seldom do more than a cursory wash. Many public bathrooms have automatic soap dispensers that don't provide enough soap even after three applications. It takes some serious washing to do enough damage to the pathogens on your hands. I believe a doctor told me he scrubbed for 15 minutes before surgery. That is the sort of thing they actually do studies on to see how long is needed before the benefit ends. So 10 seconds under a cold water tap isn't going to do much.

As to the people who don't wash at all... I was working at a largish company and realized that while I was washing my hands someone had come into the bathroom, used the urinal and walked out... without washing of course. I knew the guy and realized I would not be shaking his hand. It left a bit of a permanent mark on me and now I don't want to touch the door handle on leaving the wash room. I use the paper towel to open the door. If they have no paper towels, I use toilet paper. Yeah, it's a phobia, but it does have some logic behind it. I'm not the only one either. Many people use the paper towel to open the door and then throw it on the floor behind the door if the trash can is not close by.

At least I'm already trained for the Corona virus.

--

Rick C.

-+ Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
-+ Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

 

[Mikko OH2HVJ]

Rick C <gnuarm.deletethisbit@gmail.com> writes:

Alcohol is also not particularly useful unless used appropriately
which most people, including hospital workers, fail to do. It is used
in places where frequent hand cleaning is required because it is less
drying or irritating to skin than soap. But for most of us, soap and
water are much more effective at killing/removing all germs including
both bacteria and viruses. In fact, soap and water are particularly
good at killing viruses by dissolving the lipid layers that hold the
virus together, essentially dissolving them into particles.

You're right - soap+water is a good combination. I was quite surprised
when in a biomedical lab they told they use soap to dissolve lipids to
extract RNA. The 'soap' was apparently not something you can get from
the closest supermarket, but also not too far from common cleaning agent.

I have read nothing about triclosan use resulting in resistant strains
of bacteria. If it did, they would only be resistant to triclosan
whichwould not be a great loss.

Unfortunately triclosan resistance is sometimes related to antiobiotic resistance:
https://www.health.harvard.edu/blog/are-antibacterial-products-with-triclosan-fueling-bacterial-resistance-2019080617473

 

[Mikko OH2HVJ]

Rick C <gnuarm.deletethisbit@gmail.com> writes:

Unfortunately triclosan resistance is sometimes related to antiobiotic resistance:
https://www.health.harvard.edu/blog/are-antibacterial-products-with-triclosan-fueling-bacterial-resistance-2019080617473

Learn something every day. I would have never expected this. "Based
on these data, we hypothesized that triclosan exposure may
inadvertently drive bacteria into a state in which they are able to
tolerate normally lethal concentrations of antibiotics."

Yep, I would also have expected that strenghtness against X would at
least not increase resistance towards Y. But I think both attack the
bacteria wall, so the mechanisms might be related.

Another point they made is that people seldom do more than a cursory
wash. Many public bathrooms have automatic soap dispensers that don't
provide enough soap even after three applications. It takes some
serious washing to do enough damage to the pathogens on your hands. I
believe a doctor told me he scrubbed for 15 minutes before surgery.
That is the sort of thing they actually do studies on to see how long
is needed before the benefit ends. So 10 seconds under a cold water
tap isn't going to do much.

That's very true - proper washing is a surprisingly long and boring
effort. And the next thing our teenagers do after washing is to get
the phone back to same hands..

As to the people who don't wash at all... I was working at a largish
company and realized that while I was washing my hands someone had
come into the bathroom, used the urinal and walked out... without
washing of course. I knew the guy and realized I would not be shaking
his hand. It left a bit of a permanent mark on me and now I don't
want to touch the door handle on leaving the wash room. I use the
paper towel to open the door. If they have no paper towels, I use
toilet paper. Yeah, it's a phobia, but it does have some logic behind
it. I'm not the only one either. Many people use the paper towel to
open the door and then throw it on the floor behind the door if the
trash can is not close by.

At least I'm already trained for the Corona virus.

I don't consider that a phobia - just good hygiene. Around here there's
always some trash can close enough.

--
mikko

 

[Clifford Heath]

On 13/3/20 9:27 pm, Clive Arthur wrote:

On 13/03/2020 02:16, Winfield Hill wrote:
  Today I got emails from the CEOs of three companies
  about their actions to protect us against Covid-19.

snip

Avis (car rental) emailed to say that they are "...vigilantly
implementing enhanced protocols to ensure your safety".

Translation: "... to protect what we can of our profitability"

CH

 

[Tom Gardner]

On 13/03/20 10:14, Bill Sloman wrote:

On Friday, March 13, 2020 at 8:47:00 PM UTC+11, Tom Gardner wrote:
On 13/03/20 02:16, Winfield Hill wrote:

snip

The most such measures can do is *delay* the spread of infection; they are
unlikely to *reduce* it.

If they delay it long enough, somebody will have come up with an effective
vaccine.

There are already candidate vaccines in early testing - the local one is
still being tested on ferrets - but it will be months at least before there
is anything in volume production.

Indeed, but many peaks will occur before vaccines are widely available.
UK peak is expected to start in a few weeks.

I am expecting my 98yo mother to catch it sometime. She will, rightly, not
be a priority, and it will kill her.

It's possible, but not guaranteed. Mortality is said to be about 10% for the
70-80 age group, and 15% for those older than 80. If she's still a wrinkly,
rather than a crumbly, she's probably got a respectable chance of surviving.

While she still lives on her own, she has 6 legs, and is crumbly.

She had a low-level UTI (detected via slightly more bizarre
statements than usual ), and the antibiotics knocked her
for 6 for a week over the new year. She only avoided being
in hospital due to the local "rapid response" NHS team that
whose purpose is to keep people out of hospital. Even then
they were working 12 hour shifts, and were *very* grateful
that I could help reduce the load on them.

If the spread can be slowed enough to give her time get vaccinated, her
chances will be better. For 98-year-old Australian women, life expectancy is
2.79 years, which isn't great, and younger people are likely to get
vaccinated before she does.

Seems reasonable.

 

[Clive Arthur]

On 13/03/2020 02:16, Winfield Hill wrote:

Today I got emails from the CEOs of three companies
about their actions to protect us against Covid-19.

<snip>

Avis (car rental) emailed to say that they are "...vigilantly
implementing enhanced protocols to ensure your safety".

--
Cheers
Clive

 

[Tom Gardner]

On 13/03/20 02:16, Winfield Hill wrote:

Today I got emails from the CEOs of three companies
about their actions to protect us against Covid-19.
Walmart said their stores are cleaned daily, with
sanitizing solutions. Subway said they're cleaning
most-touched surfaces once per hour. A local pub-
restaurant, Tavern in the Square, uses disinfectant
wipes to clean and sanitize all tables, phones, POS-
screens, check presenters, booths, chairs and menus
in between guest's seatings. Plus five other items.

The most such measures can do is *delay* the spread of
infection; they are unlikely to *reduce* it.

Even spraying/wiping is unlikely to be very helpful.
E.g. consider opening the door on the way to the WC, then
thoroughly cleaning your hands, then opening the door
again on the way out; oops. I believe hospital staff
are trained to not touch the door on the way out,
either by it being held open by someone on the way
in or by using a towel to open the door and dispose
of that towel.

Lockdowns will, to some extent, prevent the next
person catching the disease. But they have to come
out of lockdown sometime, and they will catch it
then.

The benefit of delaying the spread is
(1) to delay infection until summer when it *might*
be less contagious
(2) to reduce the peak demand on health services,
thus allowing them to treat a higher proportion of cases

The best visualisation of the latter I've seen is
https://flowingdata.com/2020/03/09/flatten-the-coronavirus-curve/

The best estimates are that 60%-70% of people will
get it sooner or later, and not much will change
that.

One positive effect in the UK is that "bed blocking"
will be reduced. Bed blockers are those that are
well enough to be discharged from hospital, but have
to wait there because the help/care at home is
insufficient.

I am expecting my 98yo mother to catch it sometime.
She will, rightly, not be a priority, and it will
kill her. Her grandmother survived the 1919 flu
and significantly influenced my mother. She died in
her mid 90s, having been born in the mid 30s.
1830s, that is. 100 years is not a long time

 

[Bill Sloman]

On Friday, March 13, 2020 at 8:47:00 PM UTC+11, Tom Gardner wrote:
> On 13/03/20 02:16, Winfield Hill wrote:

<snip>

The most such measures can do is *delay* the spread of
infection; they are unlikely to *reduce* it.

If they delay it long enough, somebody will have come up with an effective vaccine.

There are already candidate vaccines in early testing - the local one is still being tested on ferrets - but it will be months at least before there is anything in volume production.

<snip>

I am expecting my 98yo mother to catch it sometime.
She will, rightly, not be a priority, and it will
kill her.

It's possible, but not guaranteed. Mortality is said to be about 10% for the 70-80 age group, and 15% for those older than 80. If she's still a wrinkly, rather than a crumbly, she's probably got a respectable chance of surviving.

If the spread can be slowed enough to give her time get vaccinated, her chances will be better. For 98-year-old Australian women, life expectancy is 2.79 years, which isn't great, and younger people are likely to get vaccinated before she does.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

 

[Martin Brown]

On 13/03/2020 10:14, Bill Sloman wrote:

On Friday, March 13, 2020 at 8:47:00 PM UTC+11, Tom Gardner wrote:
On 13/03/20 02:16, Winfield Hill wrote:

snip

The most such measures can do is *delay* the spread of infection;
they are unlikely to *reduce* it.

If they delay it long enough, somebody will have come up with an
effective vaccine.

Wishful thinking - the virus is transmissible by carriers with little or
no symptoms and in cultures where going to work with a slight illness is
the norm transmission to work colleagues is pretty much guaranteed.

That vaccine doesn't really look credible for at least twelve months.
The UK is probably following the most rational scientifically informed
policy at the moment and the best we can realistically hope for without
truly draconian measures imposed is to track mainland Europe infection
rates about a fortnight behind and as much as six weeks behind Italy
where the infection is presently raging. That will get us out of the
winter flu season when the transmissibility might be a little lower.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51768274
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51858987

The UK trace all contacts and isolate strategy was abandoned yesterday
as the number of cases in the wild has crossed a threshold where the
resources needed to do that would be better deployed in other ways. The
new rule is self-isolate and stay at home if think you are infected and
only call 111 if symptoms worsen or do not improve after 7 days.

It is disheartening to see that Covid-19 is still infecting people in
Australia where it is presently warm late summer season. It is still
within the trace all contacts and isolate regime for now though.

The growth ratio of confirmed cases in the wild based on current UK
figures is around 1.3x (optimistic) to 1.6x (pessimistic) per day
exponential growth which is equivalent to 6 to 30x increase per week.

At that rate half the UK 66M population will have been exposed within
the next two months. If we manage to get the growth ratio down to 1.2x
then the corresponding numbers would only be in the tens of thousands.

There are already candidate vaccines in early testing - the local one
is still being tested on ferrets - but it will be months at least
before there is anything in volume production.

snip

It will be a long while before they are available in quantity even if
the prototype trial vaccine is safe and demonstrably effective.

USA is still struggling to make up half decent test kits for the virus.

https://eu.usatoday.com/story/news/2020/03/11/coronavirus-covid-19-response-hurt-by-shortage-testing-components/5013586002/

The big problem for the USA is that the TrumpDontCare "health" system
ensures that the poor have to work even when they are sick so that the
Covid-19 infection will tear through the country like a dose of salts.

--
Regards,
Martin Brown

 

[Bill Sloman]

On Friday, March 13, 2020 at 10:22:14 PM UTC+11, Martin Brown wrote:

On 13/03/2020 10:14, Bill Sloman wrote:
On Friday, March 13, 2020 at 8:47:00 PM UTC+11, Tom Gardner wrote:
On 13/03/20 02:16, Winfield Hill wrote:

snip

The most such measures can do is *delay* the spread of infection;
they are unlikely to *reduce* it.

If they delay it long enough, somebody will have come up with an
effective vaccine.

Wishful thinking - the virus is transmissible by carriers with little or
no symptoms and in cultures where going to work with a slight illness is
the norm transmission to work colleagues is pretty much guaranteed.

China does seem to have worked out how to stop people going to work.

100,000 cases is a lot, but in a population of 1.3 billion it's a brilliant success.

That vaccine doesn't really look credible for at least twelve months.
The UK is probably following the most rational scientifically informed
policy at the moment and the best we can realistically hope for without
truly draconian measures imposed is to track mainland Europe infection
rates about a fortnight behind and as much as six weeks behind Italy
where the infection is presently raging. That will get us out of the
winter flu season when the transmissibility might be a little lower.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51768274
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51858987

The UK trace all contacts and isolate strategy was abandoned yesterday
as the number of cases in the wild has crossed a threshold where the
resources needed to do that would be better deployed in other ways. The
new rule is self-isolate and stay at home if think you are infected and
only call 111 if symptoms worsen or do not improve after 7 days.

That's what China did, and it largely worked.

It is disheartening to see that Covid-19 is still infecting people in
Australia where it is presently warm late summer season.

Contact tracing is still practical here. We've current got 170 active cases and 43 new cases. The UK has 590 active cases and 134 new cases(roughly the same proportion of the population).

It is still within the trace all contacts and isolate regime for now though.

The growth ratio of confirmed cases in the wild based on current UK
figures is around 1.3x (optimistic) to 1.6x (pessimistic) per day
exponential growth which is equivalent to 6 to 30x increase per week.

And it will stay that way until the affected parts of the country go into lock down

At that rate half the UK 66M population will have been exposed within
the next two months. If we manage to get the growth ratio down to 1.2x
then the corresponding numbers would only be in the tens of thousands.

There are already candidate vaccines in early testing - the local one
is still being tested on ferrets - but it will be months at least
before there is anything in volume production.

snip

It will be a long while before they are available in quantity even if
the prototype trial vaccine is safe and demonstrably effective.

USA is still struggling to make up half decent test kits for the virus.

https://eu.usatoday.com/story/news/2020/03/11/coronavirus-covid-19-response-hurt-by-shortage-testing-components/5013586002/

The big problem for the USA is that the TrumpDontCare "health" system
ensures that the poor have to work even when they are sick so that the
Covid-19 infection will tear through the country like a dose of salts.

Trump apparently defunded their Centre for Infectious Diseases Centre shortly after he came to power, and gutted it so effectively that they didn't start churning out virus test kits as soon as the Chinese situation showed that they were going to be necessary.

His grasp of what's going on doesn't be all that good even now.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney