J
Jeroen Belleman
Guest
On 2019-09-08 20:21, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
I *did* say this was only a first approximation. The point is
that we're not even close to melting lead or freezing air, and
I can't believe that anyone trying to model the climate would
come up with anything like that.
I don't trust any climate model pretending to predict mean
global temperature to a fraction of a degree, but they can't
be *that* far out.
Jeroen Belleman
On Sun, 08 Sep 2019 20:11:40 +0200, Jeroen Belleman
jeroen@nospam.please> wrote:
On 2019-09-08 19:17, dagmargoodboat@yahoo.com wrote:
[Snip!]
One of NOAA's model-writers told me they'd started off modelling
with a set of energy-balance assumptions that initially had the
earth alternately melting lead or freezing atmosphere, sensitively
depending on the settings, then proceeded to twiddle various
fudge-factors from there until they got something with a
room-temperature equilibrium.
That guessclimateology doesn't produce accurate models of known
physical processes.
That seems apocryphal. Simply balancing solar radiation input
against black body radiation gets a first approximation of
260 K or so for the average surface temperature of the earth.
That's nothing like as crazy as your claim for the initial
NOAA model. They cannot possibly have been that much wrong!
Jeroen Belleman
Actual earth average temp is about 288K.
I *did* say this was only a first approximation. The point is
that we're not even close to melting lead or freezing air, and
I can't believe that anyone trying to model the climate would
come up with anything like that.
I don't trust any climate model pretending to predict mean
global temperature to a fraction of a degree, but they can't
be *that* far out.
Jeroen Belleman