Finally some common sense re electric cars

[bitrex]

On 7/3/19 12:27 PM, Rick C wrote:

On Wednesday, July 3, 2019 at 11:56:41 AM UTC-4, bitrex wrote:
On 7/3/19 9:56 AM, Rick C wrote:

can't get one stock for 35k the cheapest option I see available to order
on their site without factoring in tax incentives/gas saving is $39,900.
I guess there's an "off-menu" option for around 37? who knows how long
that take to get.

Yes, the $35,000 version is the same car as the standard plus, but they turn off features in software. So while you have to ask for it, it is as available as any other model.


It's not that many many friends my age (late 30s, early 40s) and my
girlfriend too, do not intellectually like the Model 3 just fine and
would be happy to drive one.

They...cannot...afford...one. Not even the base model. Not on their
middle-class salaries of e.g. $54,000/yr as a school-teacher or truck
maintenance guy.

Ok psych job. You should try to focus on the points you want to make. I was responding to your statements about your car preferences...

Like most American consumers I don't think I'd get an EV to _lose_ money
as compared to an ICE luxury sedan around the same price, I'd get myself

I am explaining that an EV is a cheaper car to own and you would not "lose_money"...

I'm not sure what your real point is. I guess you just like making noise and are still jealous about the Volt being dropped like a hot potato because of the dismal sales.

Pfft, my ego is not wrapped up in what vehicle I drive. I'll put 24"
rims on a Volvo. I'd be perfectly happy to let the ol' Volt go on the
used vehicle market and pick up the latest and greatest - that's what I
was expecting to be able to do when I leased the Gen 2 nearly 3 year
ago, in fact!

"I'll be able to lease a great electric performance sedan with 250 mile
range for $219/mo $1k down no problem by 2019, the future!" I says.

 

[Winfield Hill]

bitrex wrote...

"I'll be able to lease a great electric performance
sedan with 250 mile range for $219/mo $1k down
no problem by 2019, the future!" I says.

Maybe by 2020. Anyway, every year you wait
the safety features get better. I like what
my new car has now, but want more, much more.


--
Thanks,
- Win

 

[Clive Arthur]

On 01/07/2019 00:43, bitrex wrote:

>> bitrex wrote:

<snipped>

I have one of the late model Volts

It's a pretty well-engineered car overall that still hit a modest
budget. Repair costs so far after 48k miles are $4 for set of
replacement tail light bulbs at Wal-Mart.

They're not LEDs?

Cheers
--
Clive

 

[Rick C]

On Wednesday, July 3, 2019 at 1:32:59 PM UTC-4, bitrex wrote:

On 7/3/19 12:27 PM, Rick C wrote:
On Wednesday, July 3, 2019 at 11:56:41 AM UTC-4, bitrex wrote:
On 7/3/19 9:56 AM, Rick C wrote:

can't get one stock for 35k the cheapest option I see available to order
on their site without factoring in tax incentives/gas saving is $39,900.
I guess there's an "off-menu" option for around 37? who knows how long
that take to get.

Yes, the $35,000 version is the same car as the standard plus, but they turn off features in software. So while you have to ask for it, it is as available as any other model.


It's not that many many friends my age (late 30s, early 40s) and my
girlfriend too, do not intellectually like the Model 3 just fine and
would be happy to drive one.

They...cannot...afford...one. Not even the base model. Not on their
middle-class salaries of e.g. $54,000/yr as a school-teacher or truck
maintenance guy.

Ok psych job. You should try to focus on the points you want to make. I was responding to your statements about your car preferences...

Like most American consumers I don't think I'd get an EV to _lose_ money
as compared to an ICE luxury sedan around the same price, I'd get myself

I am explaining that an EV is a cheaper car to own and you would not "lose_money"...

I'm not sure what your real point is. I guess you just like making noise and are still jealous about the Volt being dropped like a hot potato because of the dismal sales. Tesla sells as many model 3s in a quarter as Volts were ever sold. But you may not know that since no one you know can afford one.


Point is the same as it always was since my first post on the topic. The
point was their current product line is too expensive to ever make them
more than a niche-market luxury automaker designed fairly specifically
to appeal to the "well, if you could afford one you'd understand.."
market segment - that's why you have one.

Looking at their upcoming product concepts that doesn't look set to
change anytime soon.

Selling high-priced products to people who can pay it is a fine business
strategy, but not usually a world-changing one. Tesla isn't the Honda or
Ford or Chevy or Volkswagen of EVs or gonna get all of America off
gasoline by its lonesome. If and when that happens my guess is it will
probably be accomplished by Honda, Ford, Chevy and Volkswagen, et al.

You have the result correct, but for the wrong reason. Yes, Tesla isn't going to electrify the US or world highways alone. But it's not because they can't. Tesla is following the best possible path for an automotive start up, introducing a luxury car first, then working their way down in price with new models to suit the market.

At this point EVs are still pricey enough to only be relative luxury items. That is inherent in the cost of the drive line. As production volumes go up prices will come down. That is true for any suppliers of autos including Tesla. Then there is the lower maintenance costs which ultimately make the cost of ownership cheaper than ICE. That is why you will find Teslas in fleet use at some point. They care about the total cost of ownership.

But Tesla has competitors, all of who face the same economic challenges. Their initial models will be in the same price range... look at the Chevy Bolt at $37,000.

There is nothing limiting Tesla to a "niche" market other than the fact that EVs are currently a "niche" market. This market will grow rapidly and the other auto makers will all introduce vehicles with similar range and prices. Some US makers may get adventurous and build tiny EVs with much more limited range as they are building in China to sell at lower price points.

My point is you are wrong in thinking Tesla can only produce cars at high price points because they choose to do so. The prices are set by the current costs of EVs. In 10 years we will see prices drop considerably.

--

Rick C.

--++ Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
--++ Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

 

[bitrex]

On 7/3/19 2:24 PM, Rick C wrote:

On Wednesday, July 3, 2019 at 1:32:59 PM UTC-4, bitrex wrote:
On 7/3/19 12:27 PM, Rick C wrote:
On Wednesday, July 3, 2019 at 11:56:41 AM UTC-4, bitrex wrote:
On 7/3/19 9:56 AM, Rick C wrote:

can't get one stock for 35k the cheapest option I see available to order
on their site without factoring in tax incentives/gas saving is $39,900.
I guess there's an "off-menu" option for around 37? who knows how long
that take to get.

Yes, the $35,000 version is the same car as the standard plus, but they turn off features in software. So while you have to ask for it, it is as available as any other model.


It's not that many many friends my age (late 30s, early 40s) and my
girlfriend too, do not intellectually like the Model 3 just fine and
would be happy to drive one.

They...cannot...afford...one. Not even the base model. Not on their
middle-class salaries of e.g. $54,000/yr as a school-teacher or truck
maintenance guy.

Ok psych job. You should try to focus on the points you want to make. I was responding to your statements about your car preferences...

Like most American consumers I don't think I'd get an EV to _lose_ money
as compared to an ICE luxury sedan around the same price, I'd get myself

I am explaining that an EV is a cheaper car to own and you would not "lose_money"...

I'm not sure what your real point is. I guess you just like making noise and are still jealous about the Volt being dropped like a hot potato because of the dismal sales. Tesla sells as many model 3s in a quarter as Volts were ever sold. But you may not know that since no one you know can afford one.


Point is the same as it always was since my first post on the topic. The
point was their current product line is too expensive to ever make them
more than a niche-market luxury automaker designed fairly specifically
to appeal to the "well, if you could afford one you'd understand.."
market segment - that's why you have one.

Looking at their upcoming product concepts that doesn't look set to
change anytime soon.

Selling high-priced products to people who can pay it is a fine business
strategy, but not usually a world-changing one. Tesla isn't the Honda or
Ford or Chevy or Volkswagen of EVs or gonna get all of America off
gasoline by its lonesome. If and when that happens my guess is it will
probably be accomplished by Honda, Ford, Chevy and Volkswagen, et al.

You have the result correct, but for the wrong reason. Yes, Tesla isn't going to electrify the US or world highways alone. But it's not because they can't. Tesla is following the best possible path for an automotive start up, introducing a luxury car first, then working their way down in price with new models to suit the market.

I don't think they really want to sell low-margin cars, it goes against
their image as a cutting-edge tech company. Cutting-edge is not cheap.
Selling low-cost vehicles under the same marque is offensive to the
people who buy it as a luxury good, too. hence Honda vs. Acura and
Nissan vs. Lexus.

Yeah you can get the reasonably-priced '3, maybe, but you can't even
order it direct off the website. you're a second-class customer from the
get-go. They don't really want you doing that.

Thy seem to like the Apple model, maybe - market cutting-edge at
cutting-edge prices to everyone and everyone will find the money somehow
because it's just that good. It more-or-less worked for Apple, even the
"welfare queens" manage to scrounge together $700 for an Apple phone. It
worked okay for Apple and arguably Apple's products really were that
much better and revolutionary. don't know how well that will work for a
car company with much higher priced products with somewhat more mixed
reviews.

At this point EVs are still pricey enough to only be relative luxury items. That is inherent in the cost of the drive line. As production volumes go up prices will come down. That is true for any suppliers of autos including Tesla. Then there is the lower maintenance costs which ultimately make the cost of ownership cheaper than ICE. That is why you will find Teslas in fleet use at some point. They care about the total cost of ownership.

But Tesla has competitors, all of who face the same economic challenges. Their initial models will be in the same price range... look at the Chevy Bolt at $37,000.

There is nothing limiting Tesla to a "niche" market other than the fact that EVs are currently a "niche" market. This market will grow rapidly and the other auto makers will all introduce vehicles with similar range and prices. Some US makers may get adventurous and build tiny EVs with much more limited range as they are building in China to sell at lower price points.

My point is you are wrong in thinking Tesla can only produce cars at high price points because they choose to do so. The prices are set by the current costs of EVs. In 10 years we will see prices drop considerably.

10 years!!! GM made an all electric compliance-car variant of the
subcompact Chevy Spark hatchback with a ~100 mile range and fast charger
option back in 2013 it retailed for about 24k IIRC, it's gonna take 10
fucking years for Musk or somebody else to grace us with a 250 mile
range fast charging-standard car like that for around the same price? shit!

 

[bitrex]

On 7/3/19 3:08 PM, bitrex wrote:

My point is you are wrong in thinking Tesla can only produce cars at
high price points because they choose to do so.  The prices are set by
the current costs of EVs.  In 10 years we will see prices drop
considerably.


10 years!!! GM made an all electric compliance-car variant of the
subcompact Chevy Spark hatchback with a ~100 mile range and fast charger
option back in 2013 it retailed for about 24k IIRC, it's gonna take 10
fucking years for Musk or somebody else to grace us with a 250 mile
range fast charging-standard car like that for around the same price? shit!

Yeah they probably lost money on that one but still. 10 years?

 

[Rick C]

On Wednesday, July 3, 2019 at 3:08:45 PM UTC-4, bitrex wrote:

On 7/3/19 2:24 PM, Rick C wrote:
On Wednesday, July 3, 2019 at 1:32:59 PM UTC-4, bitrex wrote:
On 7/3/19 12:27 PM, Rick C wrote:
On Wednesday, July 3, 2019 at 11:56:41 AM UTC-4, bitrex wrote:
On 7/3/19 9:56 AM, Rick C wrote:

can't get one stock for 35k the cheapest option I see available to order
on their site without factoring in tax incentives/gas saving is $39,900.
I guess there's an "off-menu" option for around 37? who knows how long
that take to get.

Yes, the $35,000 version is the same car as the standard plus, but they turn off features in software. So while you have to ask for it, it is as available as any other model.


It's not that many many friends my age (late 30s, early 40s) and my
girlfriend too, do not intellectually like the Model 3 just fine and
would be happy to drive one.

They...cannot...afford...one. Not even the base model. Not on their
middle-class salaries of e.g. $54,000/yr as a school-teacher or truck
maintenance guy.

Ok psych job. You should try to focus on the points you want to make.. I was responding to your statements about your car preferences...

Like most American consumers I don't think I'd get an EV to _lose_ money
as compared to an ICE luxury sedan around the same price, I'd get myself

I am explaining that an EV is a cheaper car to own and you would not "lose_money"...

I'm not sure what your real point is. I guess you just like making noise and are still jealous about the Volt being dropped like a hot potato because of the dismal sales. Tesla sells as many model 3s in a quarter as Volts were ever sold. But you may not know that since no one you know can afford one.


Point is the same as it always was since my first post on the topic. The
point was their current product line is too expensive to ever make them
more than a niche-market luxury automaker designed fairly specifically
to appeal to the "well, if you could afford one you'd understand.."
market segment - that's why you have one.

Looking at their upcoming product concepts that doesn't look set to
change anytime soon.

Selling high-priced products to people who can pay it is a fine business
strategy, but not usually a world-changing one. Tesla isn't the Honda or
Ford or Chevy or Volkswagen of EVs or gonna get all of America off
gasoline by its lonesome. If and when that happens my guess is it will
probably be accomplished by Honda, Ford, Chevy and Volkswagen, et al.

You have the result correct, but for the wrong reason. Yes, Tesla isn't going to electrify the US or world highways alone. But it's not because they can't. Tesla is following the best possible path for an automotive start up, introducing a luxury car first, then working their way down in price with new models to suit the market.

I don't think they really want to sell low-margin cars, it goes against
their image as a cutting-edge tech company. Cutting-edge is not cheap.
Selling low-cost vehicles under the same marque is offensive to the
people who buy it as a luxury good, too. hence Honda vs. Acura and
Nissan vs. Lexus.

Yeah you can get the reasonably-priced '3, maybe, but you can't even
order it direct off the website. you're a second-class customer from the
get-go. They don't really want you doing that.

Thy seem to like the Apple model, maybe - market cutting-edge at
cutting-edge prices to everyone and everyone will find the money somehow
because it's just that good. It more-or-less worked for Apple, even the
"welfare queens" manage to scrounge together $700 for an Apple phone. It
worked okay for Apple and arguably Apple's products really were that
much better and revolutionary. don't know how well that will work for a
car company with much higher priced products with somewhat more mixed
reviews.

Yeah, following Apple's lead is a sure path to failure. But your analysis of the EV market is flawed. You keep talking like there are choices in the market place. Well, there are for EVs with limited functionality. So those are the EVs built for niche markets.

At this point EVs are still pricey enough to only be relative luxury items. That is inherent in the cost of the drive line. As production volumes go up prices will come down. That is true for any suppliers of autos including Tesla. Then there is the lower maintenance costs which ultimately make the cost of ownership cheaper than ICE. That is why you will find Teslas in fleet use at some point. They care about the total cost of ownership..

But Tesla has competitors, all of who face the same economic challenges.. Their initial models will be in the same price range... look at the Chevy Bolt at $37,000.

There is nothing limiting Tesla to a "niche" market other than the fact that EVs are currently a "niche" market. This market will grow rapidly and the other auto makers will all introduce vehicles with similar range and prices. Some US makers may get adventurous and build tiny EVs with much more limited range as they are building in China to sell at lower price points.

My point is you are wrong in thinking Tesla can only produce cars at high price points because they choose to do so. The prices are set by the current costs of EVs. In 10 years we will see prices drop considerably.


10 years!!! GM made an all electric compliance-car variant of the
subcompact Chevy Spark hatchback with a ~100 mile range and fast charger
option back in 2013 it retailed for about 24k IIRC, it's gonna take 10
fucking years for Musk or somebody else to grace us with a 250 mile
range fast charging-standard car like that for around the same price? shit!

What are you talking about??? I'm tired of you continually shifting the goal posts. You know what I'm talking about. If you have something new to say, fine. Until then I think this is over.

--

Rick C.

-+-- Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
-+-- Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

 

[bitrex]

On 7/3/19 2:16 PM, Winfield Hill wrote:

bitrex wrote...

"I'll be able to lease a great electric performance
sedan with 250 mile range for $219/mo $1k down
no problem by 2019, the future!" I says.

Maybe by 2020. Anyway, every year you wait
the safety features get better. I like what
my new car has now, but want more, much more.

The right-wing criticisms of Tesla are pretty much spot-on IMO,
basically that what Tesla did was promise an affordably-priced electric
car and they got a ton of money, taxpayer money and otherwise, thrown at
them to develop that.

And then what they did was bait-and-switch and they built another luxury
vehicle for the same market segment as before, well-heeled tech dudez
and "urban elite" with an average retail sale price of $50-something
grand. And they'll build a luxury SUV and luxury pickup and so forth.

They're a late-stage capitalist company they don't give a fuk what the
"average American consumer" wants the "average American consumer"
doesn't have any money or pot to piss in by comparison with those
above-mentioned market segments, there's no reason to care what they
want. They might have had to if there were strings attached to their
stimulus funds that was sent to Tesla, there weren't.

 

[bitrex]

On 7/3/19 2:23 PM, Clive Arthur wrote:

On 01/07/2019 00:43, bitrex wrote:

bitrex wrote:

snipped

I have one of the late model Volts

It's a pretty well-engineered car overall that still hit a modest
budget. Repair costs so far after 48k miles are $4 for set of
replacement tail light bulbs at Wal-Mart.

They're not LEDs?

Cheers

Right? the tail lamps, side marker lamps, and headlights are LED. The
high-beams are halogens.

The turn signals, reverse lamps, and brake lamps are incandescent - the
brake lamps are standard Sylvania 7443:
https://www.sylvania-automotive.com/products/interior-and-exterior-bulbs/long-life/7443_longlife.jsp

That's GM for you I guess...

 

[bitrex]

On 7/3/19 4:03 PM, bitrex wrote:

On 7/3/19 2:23 PM, Clive Arthur wrote:
On 01/07/2019 00:43, bitrex wrote:

bitrex wrote:

snipped

I have one of the late model Volts

It's a pretty well-engineered car overall that still hit a modest
budget. Repair costs so far after 48k miles are $4 for set of
replacement tail light bulbs at Wal-Mart.

They're not LEDs?

Cheers

Right? the tail lamps, side marker lamps, and headlights are LED. The
high-beams are halogens.

The turn signals, reverse lamps, and brake lamps are incandescent - the
brake lamps are standard Sylvania 7443:
https://www.sylvania-automotive.com/products/interior-and-exterior-bulbs/long-life/7443_longlife.jsp


That's GM for you I guess...

They are kind enough to make the lamps fairly easily user-replaceable,
open the rear hatch, undo two screws and a hex nut and the rear lamp
housing and wiring assembly slides right out of the body panel, pull out
old lamps and pop new ones in, takes about 5 min. It hit a budget...

 

[Tom Del Rosso]

bitrex wrote:

I have one of the late model Volts with the noise-maker, people often
don't hear it at all even if I'm creeping up 10 feet behind them.

The early model had a little button on the turn-signal-stick to emit a
polite "boop boop beep" noise to alert pedestrians to your presence, I
liked that better.

Since AI is allegedly able to detect a pedestrian, that should be
automatic.

 

[bitrex]

On 7/3/19 4:55 PM, Tom Del Rosso wrote:

bitrex wrote:

I have one of the late model Volts with the noise-maker, people often
don't hear it at all even if I'm creeping up 10 feet behind them.

The early model had a little button on the turn-signal-stick to emit a
polite "boop boop beep" noise to alert pedestrians to your presence, I
liked that better.

Since AI is allegedly able to detect a pedestrian, that should be
automatic.

my girl's Hyundai has a rear cross-traffic detection system it's very
good, almost seems to be able to see around corners and detect
pedestrians coming not in direct LOS.

the system does what these systems probably should do which is alert the
DRIVER. Sounds a warning tone beep beep beep, pedestrian detected 5
o'clock, watch out!

It's not really the pedestrian's job to dodge cars...

 

[bitrex]

On 7/3/19 5:12 PM, bitrex wrote:

On 7/3/19 4:55 PM, Tom Del Rosso wrote:
bitrex wrote:

I have one of the late model Volts with the noise-maker, people often
don't hear it at all even if I'm creeping up 10 feet behind them.

The early model had a little button on the turn-signal-stick to emit a
polite "boop boop beep" noise to alert pedestrians to your presence, I
liked that better.

Since AI is allegedly able to detect a pedestrian, that should be
automatic.


my girl's Hyundai has a rear cross-traffic detection system it's very
good, almost seems to be able to see around corners and detect
pedestrians coming not in direct LOS.

the system does what these systems probably should do which is alert the
DRIVER. Sounds a warning tone beep beep beep, pedestrian detected 5
o'clock, watch out!

It's not really the pedestrian's job to dodge cars...

Pedestrians _will_ hear you with the noisemaker if you know they're
there and you _slow down_ and are patient. And if the system alerts the
driver to the ones behind them and they are patient and wait for them to
clear. And I think even jerk-drivers for whatever reason seem to pay
attention to an insistent computer-generated warning tone.