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Bill Sloman
Guest
On Friday, July 17, 2020 at 5:46:44 AM UTC+10, John Larkin wrote:
<snipped Fred Bloggs being stupid>
The problem isn\'t getting people to believe in the equations. The problem is getting them to take the reality of exponential growth into account when they look at the data.
You can\'t manage that - you look at the Covid-19 data and it always tells you that the problem is going away. Even when the US new case per day rate went up from a roughly steady 30,000 per day to 60,000 per day, yo went to trouble of telling us that the death rate hadn\'t gone up, even though the median time from infection to death (for people who die) is about 18 days.
It\'s a slightly more subtle problem than you seem to be equipped to comprehend - which puts you squarely in your \"ignorant red-neck\" class.
I wouldn\'t dream predicting mathematical sophistication on the basis of some American social classification. You graduated from Tulane, so it seems unlikely that anybody would classify you as an ignorant red-neck - gullible twits show up in every social class, and a university education doesn\'t seem to be able to instill critical thinking (though it ought to).
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Bill Sloman, Sydney
On Thu, 16 Jul 2020 12:06:23 -0700 (PDT),
bloggs.fredbloggs.fred@gmail.com wrote:
On Wednesday, July 15, 2020 at 12:16:45 AM UTC-4, Bill Sloman wrote:
Today\'s Proceedings of the (US) National Academy of Sciences has this paper
https://www.pnas.org/content/pnas/early/2020/06/23/2006048117.full.pdf
Apparently if you spend time spelling out what exponential growth really means, even conservatives become more willing to take social distancing seriously.
It probably won\'t work on John Larkin who is really resistant to having things spelled out for him, and wouldn\'t work for Trump, who hasn\'t got a long enough attention span to let him absorb the message.
<snipped Fred Bloggs being stupid>
That paper is hilarious. They declare that the public is so ignorant
that they look at a linear slope and don\'t appreciate that it\'s
actually exponential. What\'s worse, some of those ignorant rednecks
think they actually see a peak and a decline.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Some people, when equations conflict with measurement, still believe
the equations.
The problem isn\'t getting people to believe in the equations. The problem is getting them to take the reality of exponential growth into account when they look at the data.
You can\'t manage that - you look at the Covid-19 data and it always tells you that the problem is going away. Even when the US new case per day rate went up from a roughly steady 30,000 per day to 60,000 per day, yo went to trouble of telling us that the death rate hadn\'t gone up, even though the median time from infection to death (for people who die) is about 18 days.
It\'s a slightly more subtle problem than you seem to be equipped to comprehend - which puts you squarely in your \"ignorant red-neck\" class.
I wouldn\'t dream predicting mathematical sophistication on the basis of some American social classification. You graduated from Tulane, so it seems unlikely that anybody would classify you as an ignorant red-neck - gullible twits show up in every social class, and a university education doesn\'t seem to be able to instill critical thinking (though it ought to).
--
Bill Sloman, Sydney