B
Bill Sloman
Guest
On Thursday, July 16, 2020 at 2:13:05 AM UTC+10, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
<snip>
The problem here is that you are being a fathead. We\'ve frequently invited you to try to think about what you post, but it never seems to happen.
And there is an element of poetic justice when their blind spots turn out to make them more likely to catch Covid19.
All based on computer modelling. John Larkin trusts it when it produces a result he likes.
But it does depend on human behavior. Presumably more intelligent people change their behavior sooner and more effectively, so the average IQ may end up higher than it was before the pandemic. Sadly, a 4% mortality rate doesn\'t kill enough people to make much of a difference and the age distribution of fatal outcomes means that most of them will have already reproduced.
> > That was what happened in the UK until they switched into lockdown. It is calculated that locking down one week sooner would have halved the death toll and meant a shorter lockdown period to get back to a traceable baseline
level. That is assuming the government managed to get track and trace
right (they didn\'t and the much vaunted UK world beating app sank
without trace).
Not if it is done right.
> >Not exactly. You need a decent track and trace system that can close
down any local infections before they escape back into full community
transmission. This is more easily done in societies like Japan and Korea
where people trust their government and are compliant with advice. And
in China where the population have no choice but to obey the government.
It may be more that the antiquated US political system means that the elected authorities are less impressive than they are places with better political systems.
> Selective migration did that. I wonder if recklessness is hereditary.
Attention seeking behavior in males does seem to be driven by a desire to get noticed by fertile females. As James Arthur is always reminding us, kids brought up by couples do better than kids brought up by single mothers, so any reproductive advantage from recklessness is dearly bought.
<snip>
But it\'s not obvious that you can protect them. Aged care homes get infected remarkably often, despite their best efforts.
Silly question.
<snip>
Lock downs don\'t seem to be starving anybody to death.
But increasing the chances that people in your community will get infected.
Only if you are doing the math. Ignoring the potential negative consequences of you own free-loading does make you look good.
On-line sharing is probably even cheaper than exploiting shared office space.
--
Bill Sloman, sydney
On Wed, 15 Jul 2020 09:16:36 +0100, Martin Brown
\'\'\'newspam\'\'\'@nezumi.demon.co.uk> wrote:
On 14/07/2020 22:43, John Larkin wrote:
On Tue, 14 Jul 2020 21:16:22 +0200, David Brown
david.brown@hesbynett.no> wrote:
On 14/07/2020 19:50, John Larkin wrote:
<snip>
Why clearly wrong? Can 100% of a population catch this virus? 400% ?
We already know that the population vulnerability is *at least* 87% from
that hapless choir who had a symptomatic carrier in their midst.
Cool. The survivors are immune. They should volunteer to work in
nursing homes, and save some lives.
You seem completely unable to grasp the very simple fact that you have
to be exposed to the virus before you can catch it.
Now don\'t be a fathead. Try thinking once in a while maybe.
The problem here is that you are being a fathead. We\'ve frequently invited you to try to think about what you post, but it never seems to happen.
Lockdowns are why you have a tail at all in this period, rather than
continuing to have /more/ infections for a much longer period.
Or the same number of infections in a short period. Maybe even fewer
total infections.
We can watch and wait as the southern righttard states
Nobody like mindless bigots either.
And there is an element of poetic justice when their blind spots turn out to make them more likely to catch Covid19.
exercise their constitutional freedom to catch Covid-19. Only Brazil is making a more serious balls up of handling the pandemic than the USA. Both have a very long way to go before the infection gets anywhere near herd immunity.
Some recent estimates by \"experts\" put herd immunity as low as 20%.
Sounds reasonable to me.
All based on computer modelling. John Larkin trusts it when it produces a result he likes.
If you do nothing with business as usual you will see exponential growth
with a characteristic doubling time of about 3 days.
In that case, we\'re all dead. But the growth soon stops being
exponential and peaks and declines. Look it up.
But it does depend on human behavior. Presumably more intelligent people change their behavior sooner and more effectively, so the average IQ may end up higher than it was before the pandemic. Sadly, a 4% mortality rate doesn\'t kill enough people to make much of a difference and the age distribution of fatal outcomes means that most of them will have already reproduced.
> > That was what happened in the UK until they switched into lockdown. It is calculated that locking down one week sooner would have halved the death toll and meant a shorter lockdown period to get back to a traceable baseline
level. That is assuming the government managed to get track and trace
right (they didn\'t and the much vaunted UK world beating app sank
without trace).
The up-swing in the US south may well be caused by air conditioning.
Influenced by, perhaps, but not /caused/ by. The blame lies with the idiot authorities who opened up far too fast, far too much and far too soon.
Again, should they lock down forever? Opening gradually (or rather,
opening politically) just creates a long tail, with panic driven
bumps.
Not if it is done right.
> >Not exactly. You need a decent track and trace system that can close
down any local infections before they escape back into full community
transmission. This is more easily done in societies like Japan and Korea
where people trust their government and are compliant with advice. And
in China where the population have no choice but to obey the government.
USA people seem to wilfully go out of their way to court disaster.
Not much, but I think we are much less afraid, and unimpressed by
authority, than most places.
It may be more that the antiquated US political system means that the elected authorities are less impressive than they are places with better political systems.
> Selective migration did that. I wonder if recklessness is hereditary.
Attention seeking behavior in males does seem to be driven by a desire to get noticed by fertile females. As James Arthur is always reminding us, kids brought up by couples do better than kids brought up by single mothers, so any reproductive advantage from recklessness is dearly bought.
<snip>
The lockdown thing was and is grossly mismanaged. People under 40 have
a tiny mortality from this virus, and they could keep working. Spend
the trillions to protect the vulnerable; we mostly know who they are.
But it\'s not obvious that you can protect them. Aged care homes get infected remarkably often, despite their best efforts.
If our lockdowns kill more people in poor countries than they save in
mostly white developed countries (and they may not even save lives
here) then the lockdowns are racist genocide. Do Black Lives Matter in
Africa?
Silly question.
<snip>
I\'d rather catch this thing and take my chances to live or die, than
see myself and my family slowly starve to death.
Lock downs don\'t seem to be starving anybody to death.
Your choice of course but if you are male and over 60 be very careful
what you wish for. Take a very good look at the age related IFR first.
Yes, my choice. I am keeping my business alive and my employees paid.
But increasing the chances that people in your community will get infected.
And sending some fraction of our profits to fund life-changing and
life-saving medical care in Africa. If that kills me, lives are still
net saved.
Only if you are doing the math. Ignoring the potential negative consequences of you own free-loading does make you look good.
Sensible countries run their essential systems so that utilities and
food production remain available. Pretty much everything else in the UK
was shut down until about a week ago. Many office workers have found
that they can work from home more effectively than in the office - fewer
distractions and no early starts for a tedious commute into the city.
If many workers continue to work from home, which I think they will,
workers need not pack into dense, expensive cities. Don\'t invest in
WeWork.
On-line sharing is probably even cheaper than exploiting shared office space.
--
Bill Sloman, sydney