Follow along with the video below to see how to install our site as a web app on your home screen.
Note: This feature may not be available in some browsers.
On Tuesday, April 21, 2020 at 12:03:32 AM UTC-4, david eather wrote:
I was watching the news and saw some protesters were running around with
signs say corona virus was "fake news". How can that be with mass graves
being dug and filled in New York 40 thousand people dead in the US.
I get the point that 40,000 is just the same as a years deaths due to
car accidents. As a kid I used to be amazed at Australia's yearly death
toll on the roads (and people still drive!). But the various governments
have worked to make rods safer, cars safer etc and now I just shrug my
shoulders "meh, death toll used to be much higher"
Anyway back to point I did some maths on corona virus using John Hopkins
data.
This might be a few days old.
USA has 735 thousand confirmed cases of corona virus and 33.9 thousand
deaths. Those figures are fairly sold. Some cases would not have been
reported and people dying of pneumonia being untested for covid19
somewhat cancelling unreported cases out. And EXACT, perfect value won't
be much different to those here.
So the death toll is
(1) 4.69%
Except you're forgetting that we now have antibody studies showing
28-to-80 people who've had the disease and recovered, for every
officially confirmed case.
On 2020-04-21 23:27, david eather wrote:
On 22/04/2020 11:35 am, Tom Del Rosso wrote:
Ricky C wrote:
For who knows what reason, they never shut down the subway, the
perfect inoculation facility. I never thought to see if they had
because that would have been the first thing I closed.
The subway is essential here. The essential workers wouldn't be able to
get to Manhattan without it. In the other boroughs lots of people don't
have cars so they couldn't even get around to buy supplies without a bus
or train.
I may be wrong, but isn't it possible to clean and sterilize air with a
HEPA filter and UV-C lighting. It would take a bit of work and is not as
safe as just shutting down, but it would allow the use of the subway
with less risk.
You've obviously never ridden a NYC subway. At busy periods everyone is
cheek-by-jowl, inescapably breathing in what the others exhale, and
mostly holding on to shared stanchions or straps. Good luck
disinfecting that while there are people on board.
Also there's a lot of random people coming and going at each stop, so
the opportunity for contagion is much larger than in a classroom, for
example, where it's the same dramatis personae over and over.
HEPA air filtering might helps, as it has since the airlines started
using it. Some more attention to disinfecting cars at the ends of the
line would probably help a fair amount, but the main effect would be to
maintain social distancing by running a full schedule of mostly-empty cars.
On 22/04/2020 1:41 am, dagmargoodboat@yahoo.com wrote:
On Tuesday, April 21, 2020 at 2:59:13 AM UTC-4, Tom Del Rosso wrote:
John Robertson wrote:
Thank you for presenting the data in a way that even an ardent Trumpet
could understand.
I just hope they read this.
Here in Canada we are very worried about all our friends to the south..
It's largely concentrated here in NYC, and any analysis of "how badly
the US is doing" that doesn't consider that is a superficial analysis.
And here in NYC there aren't many Trump supporters, but there are a lot
of supporters of the super-corrupt Democrat mayor who said not to worry
in February, which greatly increased the national numbers so people
could blame Trump for them.
Of course the rebel types in rural states might make it spread their
way, or might not, but you're wrong to think they are doing that because
of Trump. They're doing it because they realize, on their own, that the
decision to re-open has to be made locally.
The Powerline has an amazing graph showing cumulative cases in
America's top 25 metro areas -- it's virtually *all* in NYC/Newark.
https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2020/04/did-the-shutdown-of-new-york-city-fail.php
That one little patch of ground, with a fraction of the population,
accounts for 42% of the whole country's cases.
Cheers,
James Arthur
That little bit accounts for the area with the fastest spread. That
doesn't mean the other areas are immune.
On 22/04/2020 11:35 am, Tom Del Rosso wrote:
Ricky C wrote:
For who knows what reason, they never shut down the subway, the
perfect inoculation facility. I never thought to see if they had
because that would have been the first thing I closed.
The subway is essential here. The essential workers wouldn't be able to
get to Manhattan without it. In the other boroughs lots of people don't
have cars so they couldn't even get around to buy supplies without a bus
or train.
I may be wrong, but isn't it possible to clean and sterilize air with a
HEPA filter and UV-C lighting. It would take a bit of work and is not as
safe as just shutting down, but it would allow the use of the subway
with less risk.
On 22/04/2020 1:35 am, dagmargoodboat@yahoo.com wrote:
On Tuesday, April 21, 2020 at 12:03:32 AM UTC-4, david eather wrote:
I was watching the news and saw some protesters were running around with
signs say corona virus was "fake news". How can that be with mass graves
being dug and filled in New York 40 thousand people dead in the US.
I get the point that 40,000 is just the same as a years deaths due to
car accidents. As a kid I used to be amazed at Australia's yearly death
toll on the roads (and people still drive!). But the various governments
have worked to make rods safer, cars safer etc and now I just shrug my
shoulders "meh, death toll used to be much higher"
Anyway back to point I did some maths on corona virus using John Hopkins
data.
This might be a few days old.
USA has 735 thousand confirmed cases of corona virus and 33.9 thousand
deaths. Those figures are fairly sold. Some cases would not have been
reported and people dying of pneumonia being untested for covid19
somewhat cancelling unreported cases out. And EXACT, perfect value won't
be much different to those here.
So the death toll is
(1) 4.69%
Except you're forgetting that we now have antibody studies showing
28-to-80 people who've had the disease and recovered, for every
officially confirmed case.
Now how would you know that seeing that the US has some of the lowest
testing rates in the world?
When I saw the image of people crowding to see the hospital ship
sailing up the Hudson I realized that a large portion of NYC just was
not understanding the nature of this disease.
On Tuesday, April 21, 2020 at 11:39:59 PM UTC-4, Phil Hobbs wrote:
On 2020-04-21 23:27, david eather wrote:
On 22/04/2020 11:35 am, Tom Del Rosso wrote:
Ricky C wrote:
For who knows what reason, they never shut down the subway, the
perfect inoculation facility. I never thought to see if they had
because that would have been the first thing I closed.
The subway is essential here. The essential workers wouldn't be able to
get to Manhattan without it. In the other boroughs lots of people don't
have cars so they couldn't even get around to buy supplies without a bus
or train.
I may be wrong, but isn't it possible to clean and sterilize air with a
HEPA filter and UV-C lighting. It would take a bit of work and is not as
safe as just shutting down, but it would allow the use of the subway
with less risk.
You've obviously never ridden a NYC subway. At busy periods everyone is
cheek-by-jowl, inescapably breathing in what the others exhale, and
mostly holding on to shared stanchions or straps. Good luck
disinfecting that while there are people on board.
Also there's a lot of random people coming and going at each stop, so
the opportunity for contagion is much larger than in a classroom, for
example, where it's the same dramatis personae over and over.
HEPA air filtering might helps, as it has since the airlines started
using it. Some more attention to disinfecting cars at the ends of the
line would probably help a fair amount, but the main effect would be to
maintain social distancing by running a full schedule of mostly-empty cars.
If it is done correctly the subway only needs to be shut down for a few weeks. If it isn't done correctly there's no point in doing it at all.
Trying to "reduce" the infections on the train is pretty pointless. There is no "try", there is only "do" or "not do".
On 22/04/2020 1:35 am, dagmargoodboat@yahoo.com wrote:
On Tuesday, April 21, 2020 at 12:03:32 AM UTC-4, david eather wrote:
I was watching the news and saw some protesters were running around with
signs say corona virus was "fake news". How can that be with mass graves
being dug and filled in New York 40 thousand people dead in the US.
I get the point that 40,000 is just the same as a years deaths due to
car accidents. As a kid I used to be amazed at Australia's yearly death
toll on the roads (and people still drive!). But the various governments
have worked to make rods safer, cars safer etc and now I just shrug my
shoulders "meh, death toll used to be much higher"
Anyway back to point I did some maths on corona virus using John Hopkins
data.
This might be a few days old.
USA has 735 thousand confirmed cases of corona virus and 33.9 thousand
deaths. Those figures are fairly sold. Some cases would not have been
reported and people dying of pneumonia being untested for covid19
somewhat cancelling unreported cases out. And EXACT, perfect value won't
be much different to those here.
So the death toll is
(1) 4.69%
Except you're forgetting that we now have antibody studies showing
28-to-80 people who've had the disease and recovered, for every
officially confirmed case.
Now how would you know that seeing that the US has some of the lowest
testing rates in the world?
On Wednesday, April 22, 2020 at 12:40:11 AM UTC-4, Ricky C wrote:
On Tuesday, April 21, 2020 at 11:39:59 PM UTC-4, Phil Hobbs wrote:
On 2020-04-21 23:27, david eather wrote:
On 22/04/2020 11:35 am, Tom Del Rosso wrote:
Ricky C wrote:
For who knows what reason, they never shut down the subway, the
perfect inoculation facility. I never thought to see if they had
because that would have been the first thing I closed.
The subway is essential here. The essential workers wouldn't be able to
get to Manhattan without it. In the other boroughs lots of people don't
have cars so they couldn't even get around to buy supplies without a bus
or train.
I may be wrong, but isn't it possible to clean and sterilize air with a
HEPA filter and UV-C lighting. It would take a bit of work and is not as
safe as just shutting down, but it would allow the use of the subway
with less risk.
You've obviously never ridden a NYC subway. At busy periods everyone is
cheek-by-jowl, inescapably breathing in what the others exhale, and
mostly holding on to shared stanchions or straps. Good luck
disinfecting that while there are people on board.
Also there's a lot of random people coming and going at each stop, so
the opportunity for contagion is much larger than in a classroom, for
example, where it's the same dramatis personae over and over.
HEPA air filtering might helps, as it has since the airlines started
using it. Some more attention to disinfecting cars at the ends of the
line would probably help a fair amount, but the main effect would be to
maintain social distancing by running a full schedule of mostly-empty cars.
If it is done correctly the subway only needs to be shut down for a few weeks. If it isn't done correctly there's no point in doing it at all.
Trying to "reduce" the infections on the train is pretty pointless. There is no "try", there is only "do" or "not do".
They could run more trains instead of fewer, such that the riders
could maintain safe distance in sparsely-occupied cars.
(That would at least be a lot better than running fewer and fewer
trains trying to keep the riders packed like sardines.)
Or they could come up with something else, better. Not being
tyrannical, I don't presume to know what's best for them, far away.
Cheers,
James Arthur
On 21/04/2020 2:03 pm, david eather wrote:
I was watching the news and saw some protesters were running around with signs
say corona virus was "fake news". How can that be with mass graves being dug
and filled in New York 40 thousand people dead in the US.
I get the point that 40,000 is just the same as a years deaths due to car
accidents. As a kid I used to be amazed at Australia's yearly death toll on
the roads (and people still drive!). But the various governments have worked
to make rods safer, cars safer etc and now I just shrug my shoulders "meh,
death toll used to be much higher"
Anyway back to point I did some maths on corona virus using John Hopkins data.
This might be a few days old.
USA has 735 thousand confirmed cases of corona virus and 33.9 thousand deaths.
Those figures are fairly sold. Some cases would not have been reported and
people dying of pneumonia being untested for covid19 somewhat cancelling
unreported cases out. And EXACT, perfect value won't be much different to
those here.
So the death toll is
(1) 4.69%
which is the situation with some hospitals over-stretched and other OK.
Thankfully it is not like Spain or Italy at closer to 15%.
Now, if you do nothing, the only thing to prevent the spread is "herd
immunity" which occurs when an infected person can (probability) only pass the
bug on to less that one person because every one else has either had it and
have antibodies or have been vaccinated and so also have antibodies. Now the
question is how many people is that?
The lowest figure I have for the R (how many people it will spread to) of this
virus is 2.5 and the highest is 5. The crude way to find out what percentage
of the population will get infected is (R-1)/R or with the numbers above
(2) 60% at best case
(3) 80% at worst case
That means for the American population of 331 million between
(4) 198 million infections best case
(5) 265 million infections worst case
and this will result in (using the USA figures and assuming the hospitals will
not become overwhelmed)
(6) 9 million deaths best case
(7) 12 million deaths worse case
That's not fake news. That is counting the bodies and the sick. Makes the road
toll look like a joke.
And if overwhelmed USA could be looking at about three times that number
(using Italy's and Spain's death rate).
Potentially 27 million to 36 million deaths.
Yea, I want my rights to do whatever I like, but I suspect if I accidentally
infect someone you know and they die, you will want to sue me and want the
police to charge me with manslaughter.
And of course death is forever...
Modelling is essentially futile ;-)
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/a-comic-strip-tour-of-the-wild-world-of-pandemic-modeling/
On Tuesday, April 21, 2020 at 11:40:25 PM UTC-4, david eather wrote:
On 22/04/2020 1:35 am, dagmargoodboat@yahoo.com wrote:
On Tuesday, April 21, 2020 at 12:03:32 AM UTC-4, david eather wrote:
I was watching the news and saw some protesters were running around with
signs say corona virus was "fake news". How can that be with mass graves
being dug and filled in New York 40 thousand people dead in the US.
I get the point that 40,000 is just the same as a years deaths due to
car accidents. As a kid I used to be amazed at Australia's yearly death
toll on the roads (and people still drive!). But the various governments
have worked to make rods safer, cars safer etc and now I just shrug my
shoulders "meh, death toll used to be much higher"
Anyway back to point I did some maths on corona virus using John Hopkins
data.
This might be a few days old.
USA has 735 thousand confirmed cases of corona virus and 33.9 thousand
deaths. Those figures are fairly sold. Some cases would not have been
reported and people dying of pneumonia being untested for covid19
somewhat cancelling unreported cases out. And EXACT, perfect value won't
be much different to those here.
So the death toll is
(1) 4.69%
Except you're forgetting that we now have antibody studies showing
28-to-80 people who've had the disease and recovered, for every
officially confirmed case.
Now how would you know that seeing that the US has some of the lowest
testing rates in the world?
a) We do not have some of the lowest testing rates in the world;
that's false. And it's not relevant.
b) I'm not talking about testing for the _virus_. I'm talking about
new studies using the brand-new antibody tests that detect whether
someone *previously* had the illness (possibly without knowing it).
c) We know the "28-to-80" undocumented-cases-per-confirmed-case figure
from actual randomized samples now available from studies in two
parts of California, demonstrating that roughly 3-4% of the population
has antibodies to SARS-CoV2.
(That top-end figure should've been 81 instead of 80. The range was
28-to-55 undocumented cases per official case in Los Angeles, and
about 48-to-81 undocumented cases per official case in Santa Clara
county.)
These are new results, still not widely disseminated and understood.
But these samplings frame the Wuhan Scourge risk for us in a way that
wasn't possible until Monday -- 600 deaths out of 7,994 confirmed cases
is one thing (LA county). But 600 out of between 221,000 and 442,000
people who actually got the Scourge -- most not realizing they'd even
had it -- is a different kettle of fish.
quote
Based on results of the first round of testing, the research team estimates that approximately 4.1% of the county's adult population has antibody to the virus. Adjusting this estimate for statistical margin of error implies about 2.8% to 5.6% of the county's adult population has antibody to the virus- which translates to approximately 221,000 to 442,000 adults in the county who have had the infection. That estimate is 28 to 55 times higher than the 7,994 confirmed cases of COVID-19 reported to the county by the time of the study in early April. The number of COVID-related deaths in the county has now surpassed 600.
/quote
http://www.publichealth.lacounty.gov/phcommon/public/media/mediapubhpdetail.cfm?prid=2328
quote
In the first large-scale research of its kind, a team led by Dr. Eran Bendavid, an associate professor at the Stanford University School of Medicine, tested 3,300 volunteers in Santa Clara County, California, and found that 2.5 to 4.2% were positive for the COVID-19 antibodies.
That means that in a county of 2 million people, between 48,000 and 81,000 residents would have had the virus, also known as SARS-CoV-2, even though the county health department had reported only about 1,000 cases on April 3-4, when the study was conducted.
/quote
https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2020/apr/17/coronavirus-much-more-widespread-previously-though/
You've obviously never ridden a NYC subway. At busy periods
everyone is cheek-by-jowl, inescapably breathing in what the
others exhale, and mostly holding on to shared stanchions or
straps. Good luck disinfecting that while there are people on
board.
These are new results, still not widely disseminated and understood.
But these samplings frame the Wuhan Scourge risk for us in a way that
wasn't possible until Monday -- 600 deaths out of 7,994 confirmed
cases
is one thing (LA county). But 600 out of between 221,000 and 442,000
people who actually got the Scourge -- most not realizing they'd even
had it -- is a different kettle of fish.
It boils down to a death rate that's approximately the same as flu.
dagmargoodboat@yahoo.com wrote:
These are new results, still not widely disseminated and understood.
But these samplings frame the Wuhan Scourge risk for us in a way that
wasn't possible until Monday -- 600 deaths out of 7,994 confirmed
cases
is one thing (LA county). But 600 out of between 221,000 and 442,000
people who actually got the Scourge -- most not realizing they'd even
had it -- is a different kettle of fish.
It boils down to a death rate that's approximately the same as flu.
Does anyone get flu without symptoms?
On Wednesday, April 22, 2020 at 1:38:13 AM UTC-4, dagmarg...@yahoo.com wrote:
On Wednesday, April 22, 2020 at 12:40:11 AM UTC-4, Ricky C wrote:
If it is done correctly the subway only needs to be shut down for a few weeks. If it isn't done correctly there's no point in doing it at all.
Trying to "reduce" the infections on the train is pretty pointless. There is no "try", there is only "do" or "not do".
They could run more trains instead of fewer, such that the riders
could maintain safe distance in sparsely-occupied cars.
(That would at least be a lot better than running fewer and fewer
trains trying to keep the riders packed like sardines.)
Or they could come up with something else, better. Not being
tyrannical, I don't presume to know what's best for them, far away.
I may not know what is "best" for them. I know they can't figure it out either, so my opinion is as good as theirs...
dagmargoodboat@yahoo.com wrote:
These are new results, still not widely disseminated and understood.
But these samplings frame the Wuhan Scourge risk for us in a way that
wasn't possible until Monday -- 600 deaths out of 7,994 confirmed
cases
is one thing (LA county). But 600 out of between 221,000 and 442,000
people who actually got the Scourge -- most not realizing they'd even
had it -- is a different kettle of fish.
It boils down to a death rate that's approximately the same as flu.
Does anyone get flu without symptoms?
On Wednesday, April 22, 2020 at 2:15:50 AM UTC-4, Ricky C wrote:
On Wednesday, April 22, 2020 at 1:38:13 AM UTC-4, dagmarg...@yahoo.com wrote:
On Wednesday, April 22, 2020 at 12:40:11 AM UTC-4, Ricky C wrote:
If it is done correctly the subway only needs to be shut down for a few weeks. If it isn't done correctly there's no point in doing it at all.
Trying to "reduce" the infections on the train is pretty pointless. There is no "try", there is only "do" or "not do".
They could run more trains instead of fewer, such that the riders
could maintain safe distance in sparsely-occupied cars.
(That would at least be a lot better than running fewer and fewer
trains trying to keep the riders packed like sardines.)
Or they could come up with something else, better. Not being
tyrannical, I don't presume to know what's best for them, far away.
I may not know what is "best" for them. I know they can't figure it out either, so my opinion is as good as theirs...
No, actually, your opinion isn't as good as theirs. You're not a
New Yorker. You don't live there, you don't see the problems or
the options in real-time 1/100th as well as they do.
You're denying, dismissing the entire premise, the whole revelation
behind the American miracle, this American Experiment in liberty --
the idea that ordinary people can manage their own lives better, than
central rule by busy-bodies who can't balance a budget.
On 22/04/2020 2:11 am, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Tue, 21 Apr 2020 08:41:30 -0700 (PDT), dagmargoodboat@yahoo.com
wrote:
On Tuesday, April 21, 2020 at 2:59:13 AM UTC-4, Tom Del Rosso wrote:
John Robertson wrote:
Thank you for presenting the data in a way that even an ardent Trumpet
could understand.
I just hope they read this.
Here in Canada we are very worried about all our friends to the south.
It's largely concentrated here in NYC, and any analysis of "how badly
the US is doing" that doesn't consider that is a superficial analysis.
And here in NYC there aren't many Trump supporters, but there are a lot
of supporters of the super-corrupt Democrat mayor who said not to worry
in February, which greatly increased the national numbers so people
could blame Trump for them.
Of course the rebel types in rural states might make it spread their
way, or might not, but you're wrong to think they are doing that because
of Trump. They're doing it because they realize, on their own, that the
decision to re-open has to be made locally.
The Powerline has an amazing graph showing cumulative cases in
America's top 25 metro areas -- it's virtually *all* in NYC/Newark.
https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2020/04/did-the-shutdown-of-new-york-city-fail.php
That one little patch of ground, with a fraction of the population,
accounts for 42% of the whole country's cases.
Yikes. I never understood why so many people want to pack themselves
into New York and New Jersey. This thing may change that a little.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2020/04/21/if_half_the_countrys_deaths_were_in_montana_would_new_york_shut_down_142995.html
There have been a couple of books lately about people who moved from
New York to the south, sometimes rural south, and were shocked to find
kind, intelligent people.
Science teaches us to test , review and hypothesize
On Wednesday, April 22, 2020 at 7:58:47 AM UTC-4, Tom Del Rosso wrote:
dagmargoodboat@yahoo.com wrote:
These are new results, still not widely disseminated and understood.
But these samplings frame the Wuhan Scourge risk for us in a way
that wasn't possible until Monday -- 600 deaths out of 7,994
confirmed cases
is one thing (LA county). But 600 out of between 221,000 and
442,000 people who actually got the Scourge -- most not realizing
they'd even had it -- is a different kettle of fish.
It boils down to a death rate that's approximately the same as flu.
Does anyone get flu without symptoms?
That's an interesting question.
A quick search on "asymptomatic flu" reveals that the answer is,
"emphatically, yes." About 3/4 have no symptoms.
https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2014/03/uk-flu-study-many-are-infected-few-are-sick
(original paper)
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanres/article/PIIS2213-2600(14)70034-7/fulltext
dagmargoodboat wrote:
On Wednesday, April 22, 2020 at 7:58:47 AM UTC-4, Tom Del Rosso wrote:
dagmargoodboat wrote:
These are new results, still not widely disseminated and understood.
But these samplings frame the Wuhan Scourge risk for us in a way
that wasn't possible until Monday -- 600 deaths out of 7,994
confirmed cases
is one thing (LA county). But 600 out of between 221,000 and
442,000 people who actually got the Scourge -- most not realizing
they'd even had it -- is a different kettle of fish.
It boils down to a death rate that's approximately the same as flu.
Does anyone get flu without symptoms?
That's an interesting question.
A quick search on "asymptomatic flu" reveals that the answer is,
"emphatically, yes." About 3/4 have no symptoms.
https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2014/03/uk-flu-study-many-are-infected-few-are-sick
(original paper)
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanres/article/PIIS2213-2600(14)70034-7/fulltext
Then flu deaths are greatly exaggerated.
This doctor also said so a few days ago (watch for 2 minutes after time
index):
https://youtu.be/y2vhVpOAC7U?t=1171
But he says it's more than what that 3/4 ratio would imply because flu
deaths are worst-case estimates.
He writes, with other ER docs, at www.brief19.com