40,000 dead by fake news

[Ricky C]

On Tuesday, April 21, 2020 at 11:41:40 AM UTC-4, dagmarg...@yahoo.com wrote:

On Tuesday, April 21, 2020 at 2:59:13 AM UTC-4, Tom Del Rosso wrote:
John Robertson wrote:

Thank you for presenting the data in a way that even an ardent Trumpet
could understand.

I just hope they read this.

Here in Canada we are very worried about all our friends to the south.

It's largely concentrated here in NYC, and any analysis of "how badly
the US is doing" that doesn't consider that is a superficial analysis.

And here in NYC there aren't many Trump supporters, but there are a lot
of supporters of the super-corrupt Democrat mayor who said not to worry
in February, which greatly increased the national numbers so people
could blame Trump for them.

Of course the rebel types in rural states might make it spread their
way, or might not, but you're wrong to think they are doing that because
of Trump. They're doing it because they realize, on their own, that the
decision to re-open has to be made locally.

The Powerline has an amazing graph showing cumulative cases in
America's top 25 metro areas -- it's virtually *all* in NYC/Newark.
https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2020/04/did-the-shutdown-of-new-york-city-fail.php

That one little patch of ground, with a fraction of the population,
accounts for 42% of the whole country's cases.

For who knows what reason, they never shut down the subway, the perfect inoculation facility. I never thought to see if they had because that would have been the first thing I closed.

When I saw the image of people crowding to see the hospital ship sailing up the Hudson I realized that a large portion of NYC just was not understanding the nature of this disease.

--

Rick C.

++ Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
++ Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

 

[Tom Gardner]

On 21/04/20 23:35, Phil Hobbs wrote:

On 2020-04-21 18:27, Ricky C wrote:
On Tuesday, April 21, 2020 at 10:47:18 AM UTC-4, Phil Hobbs wrote:
On 2020-04-21 04:36, Ricky C wrote:
No, I will want to kill you and I just might.  I have a lot of free
time on my hands and I've actually given it a lot of thought.  I
think I am capable of murder given the right motivations.  Then I am
pretty sure everyone else is as well.

So stay away from my friends with your infection.

-- Rick C.

Rick, seriously, man, you need to get professional help ASAP.  That's
way over the edge.

Lol, are you saying you won't take action to prevent the infection of those
you care about?

Thanks for your concern.



You laugh.

Making death threats isn't normal.

Quite.

Some of his recent posts, here and elsewhere, remind me of
posts I've seen from people that I know have been feeling
considerable stress.

Shame.

 

[Chris]

On 21/04/2020 2:03 pm, david eather wrote:

I was watching the news and saw some protesters were running around with
signs say corona virus was "fake news". How can that be with mass graves
being dug and filled in New York 40 thousand people dead in the US.

I get the point that 40,000 is just the same as a years deaths due to
car accidents. As a kid I used to be amazed at Australia's yearly death
toll on the roads (and people still drive!). But the various governments
have worked to make rods safer, cars safer etc and now I just shrug my
shoulders "meh, death toll used to be much higher"

Anyway back to point I did some maths on corona virus using John Hopkins
data.

This might be a few days old.

USA has 735 thousand confirmed cases of corona virus and 33.9 thousand
deaths. Those figures are fairly sold. Some cases would not have been
reported and people dying of pneumonia being untested for covid19
somewhat cancelling unreported cases out. And EXACT, perfect value won't
be much different to those here.

So the death toll is

(1) 4.69%

which is the situation with some hospitals over-stretched and other OK.
Thankfully it is not like Spain or Italy at closer to 15%.

Now, if you do nothing, the only thing to prevent the spread is "herd
immunity" which occurs when an infected person can (probability) only
pass the bug on to less that one person because every one else has
either had it and have antibodies or have been vaccinated and so also
have antibodies.  Now the question is how many people is that?

The lowest figure I have for the R (how many people it will spread to)
of this virus is 2.5 and the highest is 5. The crude way to find out
what percentage of the population will get infected is (R-1)/R or with
the numbers above

(2) 60% at best case
(3) 80% at worst case

That means for the American population of 331 million between

(4) 198 million infections best case
(5) 265 million infections worst case

and this will result in (using the USA figures and assuming the
hospitals will not become overwhelmed)

(6) 9 million deaths best case
(7) 12 million deaths worse case

That's not fake news. That is counting the bodies and the sick. Makes
the road toll look like a joke.

And if overwhelmed USA could be looking at about three times that number
(using Italy's and Spain's death rate).

Potentially 27 million to 36 million deaths.

Yea, I want my rights to do whatever I like, but I suspect if I
accidentally infect someone you know and they die, you will want to sue
me and want the police to charge me with manslaughter.

And of course death is forever...

Modelling is essentially futile ;-)

<https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/a-comic-strip-tour-of-the-wild-world-of-pandemic-modeling/>

--
Cheers,
Chris.

 

[Tom Del Rosso]

Ricky C wrote:

For who knows what reason, they never shut down the subway, the
perfect inoculation facility. I never thought to see if they had
because that would have been the first thing I closed.

The subway is essential here. The essential workers wouldn't be able to
get to Manhattan without it. In the other boroughs lots of people don't
have cars so they couldn't even get around to buy supplies without a bus
or train.

 

[Ricky C]

On Tuesday, April 21, 2020 at 6:35:12 PM UTC-4, Phil Hobbs wrote:

On 2020-04-21 18:27, Ricky C wrote:
On Tuesday, April 21, 2020 at 10:47:18 AM UTC-4, Phil Hobbs wrote:
On 2020-04-21 04:36, Ricky C wrote:
No, I will want to kill you and I just might. I have a lot of free
time on my hands and I've actually given it a lot of thought. I
think I am capable of murder given the right motivations. Then I am
pretty sure everyone else is as well.

So stay away from my friends with your infection.

-- Rick C.

Rick, seriously, man, you need to get professional help ASAP. That's
way over the edge.

Lol, are you saying you won't take action to prevent the infection of those you care about?

Thanks for your concern.



You laugh.

Making death threats isn't normal.

Phil Hobbs

It was a perfectly rational response to someone saying they don't care who they kill with this disease, which you conveniently trimmed out.

You don't think his statement was cause for concern? Interesting. That sounds like you could be a psychopath.

Here it is for your review.


On Tuesday, April 21, 2020 at 12:03:32 AM UTC-4, david eather wrote:

Yea, I want my rights to do whatever I like, but I suspect if I
accidentally infect someone you know and they die, you will want to sue
me and want the police to charge me with manslaughter.

And of course death is forever...

Yeah, seems pretty disturbing to me.

--

Rick C.

--+ Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
--+ Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

 

[Phil Hobbs]

On 2020-04-21 21:35, Tom Del Rosso wrote:

Ricky C wrote:

For who knows what reason, they never shut down the subway, the
perfect inoculation facility. I never thought to see if they had
because that would have been the first thing I closed.

The subway is essential here. The essential workers wouldn't be able to
get to Manhattan without it. In the other boroughs lots of people don't
have cars so they couldn't even get around to buy supplies without a bus
or train.

It wouldn't have been that costly to maintain the prior level of
service--with a 90% ridership reduction, it would have been easy to
maintain social distance. Given the results, _increasing_ service would
have been a cheap way to reduce the carnage.

<http://web.mit.edu/jeffrey/harris/HarrisJE_WP2_COVID19_NYC_13-Apr-2020.pdf>

Cheers

Phil Hobbs

--
Dr Philip C D Hobbs
Principal Consultant
ElectroOptical Innovations LLC / Hobbs ElectroOptics
Optics, Electro-optics, Photonics, Analog Electronics
Briarcliff Manor NY 10510

http://electrooptical.net
http://hobbs-eo.com

 

[Bill Sloman]

On Wednesday, April 22, 2020 at 1:59:42 AM UTC+10, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:

On Tue, 21 Apr 2020 08:35:59 -0700 (PDT), dagmargoodboat@yahoo.com
wrote:

On Tuesday, April 21, 2020 at 12:03:32 AM UTC-4, david eather wrote:
I was watching the news and saw some protesters were running around with
signs say corona virus was "fake news". How can that be with mass graves
being dug and filled in New York 40 thousand people dead in the US.

I get the point that 40,000 is just the same as a years deaths due to
car accidents. As a kid I used to be amazed at Australia's yearly death
toll on the roads (and people still drive!). But the various governments
have worked to make rods safer, cars safer etc and now I just shrug my
shoulders "meh, death toll used to be much higher"

Anyway back to point I did some maths on corona virus using John Hopkins
data.

This might be a few days old.

USA has 735 thousand confirmed cases of corona virus and 33.9 thousand
deaths. Those figures are fairly sold. Some cases would not have been
reported and people dying of pneumonia being untested for covid19
somewhat cancelling unreported cases out. And EXACT, perfect value won't
be much different to those here.

So the death toll is

(1) 4.69%

Except you're forgetting that we now have antibody studies showing
28-to-80 people who've had the disease and recovered, for every
officially confirmed case.

https://www.wired.com/story/new-covid-19-antibody-study-results-are-in-are-they-right/

We don't have the "studies" yet - merely pre-printst of what might get published if it survives the peer-review process. They aren't large and while they are being interpreted as indicating an unexpectedly large number of positive reactions for anti-bodies to Covid-19 in the - small - community tested, it's a bit early to extrapolated across the whole of California, let alone the whole of the US.

Which means the correct math, AFAWCT, is
33.9k reported deaths / (28-to-80 x 735k)

Which works out to a case fatality rate of 0.06-to-0.16%. About the
same as flu.

Not a very convincing result, after you look at the state of New York's hospitals.

which is the situation with some hospitals over-stretched and other OK..
Thankfully it is not like Spain or Italy at closer to 15%.

New York looks rather worse than Spain and Italy. New York has 13,077 cases of Covid-19 per million population where Spain has 4,367 and Italy 3043.
Deaths in New York are 1004 per million people, while Spain is at 455 and Italy 408.

Now, if you do nothing, the only thing to prevent the spread is "herd
immunity" which occurs when an infected person can (probability) only
pass the bug on to less that one person because every one else has
either had it and have antibodies or have been vaccinated and so also
have antibodies. Now the question is how many people is that?

The lowest figure I have for the R (how many people it will spread to)
of this virus is 2.5 and the highest is 5. The crude way to find out
what percentage of the population will get infected is (R-1)/R or with
the numbers above

(2) 60% at best case
(3) 80% at worst case

That means for the American population of 331 million between

(4) 198 million infections best case
(5) 265 million infections worst case

and this will result in (using the USA figures and assuming the
hospitals will not become overwhelmed)

(6) 9 million deaths best case
(7) 12 million deaths worse case

That's not fake news. That is counting the bodies and the sick. Makes
the road toll look like a joke.

But that *is* the fake news -- that's wildly misconstruing the empirical
data. That's incorporating all sorts of unjustified simplistic
presumptions, to extrapolate an unsupported extra-galactic conclusion.

James Arthur didn't like the calculation, but he couldn't find one specific error that he could argue with, so he settled for unjustified simplistic rhetoric as a substitute for any kind of reasoned argument.

Sure, there's a virus. It's unpleasant. It's killing unfortunate people
in a very unfortunate, awful way. But it's not Ebola.

Nor the Black Death,. So what?

Some day we might have another ebola or 1918-type virus that gets out
of control and kills a few percent of humanity.

Covid-19 does seem to be more lethal than the Spanish flu was.

https://www.biospace.com/article/compare-1918-spanish-influenza-pandemic-versus-covid-19/

> It's prudent to be prepared for that and to suspect and try to contain every new viral infection. This one could have been contained but wasn't, but fortunately it wasn't The Big One. That should have been obvious months ago.

"The Big One" is a figment of John Larkin's imagination, mainly designed to let him be dismissive of the existing epidemic.

> If I were in charge of everything [1],

He'd be worse than Trump ...

<snipped examples of why he'd be even worse than Trump>

We haven't got a clue what the next pandemic might look like, and military preparedness is always centered on fighting the last war. What the US needs to do is to recognise that health care system's first job is contain epidemics of infectious diseases - a proposition I've been putting forward here for years - and the what it does most of the time is merely making sure that patients trust it, so they will turn to it early when an epidemic does strike.

That means that health care has to be universal, and that you don't get charged money when you show up feeling sick. You still have to pay, but every other advanced industrial country has some kind of national health insurance scheme that covers everybody (including the indigient - who get infectious diseases just like everybody, and frequently more often).

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

 

[Bill Sloman]

On Wednesday, April 22, 2020 at 10:22:33 AM UTC+10, Chris wrote:

On 21/04/2020 2:03 pm, david eather wrote:
I was watching the news and saw some protesters were running around with
signs say corona virus was "fake news". How can that be with mass graves
being dug and filled in New York 40 thousand people dead in the US.

I get the point that 40,000 is just the same as a years deaths due to
car accidents. As a kid I used to be amazed at Australia's yearly death
toll on the roads (and people still drive!). But the various governments
have worked to make rods safer, cars safer etc and now I just shrug my
shoulders "meh, death toll used to be much higher"

Anyway back to point I did some maths on corona virus using John Hopkins
data.

This might be a few days old.

USA has 735 thousand confirmed cases of corona virus and 33.9 thousand
deaths. Those figures are fairly sold. Some cases would not have been
reported and people dying of pneumonia being untested for covid19
somewhat cancelling unreported cases out. And EXACT, perfect value won't
be much different to those here.

So the death toll is

(1) 4.69%

which is the situation with some hospitals over-stretched and other OK.
Thankfully it is not like Spain or Italy at closer to 15%.

Now, if you do nothing, the only thing to prevent the spread is "herd
immunity" which occurs when an infected person can (probability) only
pass the bug on to less that one person because every one else has
either had it and have antibodies or have been vaccinated and so also
have antibodies.  Now the question is how many people is that?

The lowest figure I have for the R (how many people it will spread to)
of this virus is 2.5 and the highest is 5. The crude way to find out
what percentage of the population will get infected is (R-1)/R or with
the numbers above

(2) 60% at best case
(3) 80% at worst case

That means for the American population of 331 million between

(4) 198 million infections best case
(5) 265 million infections worst case

and this will result in (using the USA figures and assuming the
hospitals will not become overwhelmed)

(6) 9 million deaths best case
(7) 12 million deaths worse case

That's not fake news. That is counting the bodies and the sick. Makes
the road toll look like a joke.

And if overwhelmed USA could be looking at about three times that number
(using Italy's and Spain's death rate).

Potentially 27 million to 36 million deaths.

Yea, I want my rights to do whatever I like, but I suspect if I
accidentally infect someone you know and they die, you will want to sue
me and want the police to charge me with manslaughter.

And of course death is forever...

Modelling is essentially futile ;-)

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/a-comic-strip-tour-of-the-wild-world-of-pandemic-modeling/

It's not futile, but it's mainly useful in letting you see how various scenario's might play out, and suggesting where you should concentrate your attention. It's not going to give you good predictions, but it can give useful ones..

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

 

[Ricky C]

On Tuesday, April 21, 2020 at 9:35:56 PM UTC-4, Tom Del Rosso wrote:

Ricky C wrote:

For who knows what reason, they never shut down the subway, the
perfect inoculation facility. I never thought to see if they had
because that would have been the first thing I closed.

The subway is essential here. The essential workers wouldn't be able to
get to Manhattan without it. In the other boroughs lots of people don't
have cars so they couldn't even get around to buy supplies without a bus
or train.

I guess we know why NYC is the CV capital of the world now.

They finally shut down the subway I read. So clearly it's not that essential.

I'm sorry, but I just have a hard time understanding the mind set that things which will cause massive infection rates can't be shut down. I don't have all the answers on the tip of my tongue, but I'm sure there is a better way than keeping everyone at least 6 foot apart everywhere else in the city, but twice a day shoving them elbow to elbow in the subway.

We have the results and they aren't pretty. It is clear that people just don't take this disease seriously, even in NYC.

I don't think they have any protests in NYC to go back to work, do they?

--

Rick C.

-+- Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
-+- Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

 

[david eather]

On 22/04/2020 11:05 am, Ricky C wrote:

On Tuesday, April 21, 2020 at 6:35:12 PM UTC-4, Phil Hobbs wrote:
On 2020-04-21 18:27, Ricky C wrote:
On Tuesday, April 21, 2020 at 10:47:18 AM UTC-4, Phil Hobbs wrote:
On 2020-04-21 04:36, Ricky C wrote:
No, I will want to kill you and I just might. I have a lot of free
time on my hands and I've actually given it a lot of thought. I
think I am capable of murder given the right motivations. Then I am
pretty sure everyone else is as well.

So stay away from my friends with your infection.

-- Rick C.

Rick, seriously, man, you need to get professional help ASAP. That's
way over the edge.

Lol, are you saying you won't take action to prevent the infection of those you care about?

Thanks for your concern.



You laugh.

Making death threats isn't normal.

Phil Hobbs

It was a perfectly rational response to someone saying they don't care who they kill with this disease, which you conveniently trimmed out.

You don't think his statement was cause for concern? Interesting. That sounds like you could be a psychopath.

Here it is for your review.


On Tuesday, April 21, 2020 at 12:03:32 AM UTC-4, david eather wrote:

Yea, I want my rights to do whatever I like, but I suspect if I
accidentally infect someone you know and they die, you will want to sue
me and want the police to charge me with manslaughter.

And of course death is forever...


Yeah, seems pretty disturbing to me.

I was commenting on some of the idiot protesters who were running around
with signs about their rights being infringed.

 

[david eather]

On 21/04/2020 3:32 pm, DecadentLinuxUserNumeroUno@decadence.org wrote:

david eather <eathDELETEer@tpg.com.au> wrote in news:kgunG.99262
$QJp.69292@fx08.am4:

And of course death is forever...


If one takes the 'avid' from your name it spells DEATHER!

When playing online games I use "Eric Death" which come from
D.eathEr(ic) - in cog-neato (spelling has never been my thing)

 

[david eather]

On 21/04/2020 10:17 pm, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:

On Mon, 20 Apr 2020 22:10:22 -0700, John Robertson <spam@flippers.com
wrote:

On 2020/04/20 9:03 p.m., david eather wrote:
I was watching the news and saw some protesters were running around with
signs say corona virus was "fake news". How can that be with mass graves
being dug and filled in New York 40 thousand people dead in the US.

I get the point that 40,000 is just the same as a years deaths due to
car accidents. As a kid I used to be amazed at Australia's yearly death
toll on the roads (and people still drive!). But the various governments
have worked to make rods safer, cars safer etc and now I just shrug my
shoulders "meh, death toll used to be much higher"

Anyway back to point I did some maths on corona virus using John Hopkins
data.

This might be a few days old.

USA has 735 thousand confirmed cases of corona virus and 33.9 thousand
deaths. Those figures are fairly sold. Some cases would not have been
reported and people dying of pneumonia being untested for covid19
somewhat cancelling unreported cases out. And EXACT, perfect value won't
be much different to those here.

So the death toll is

(1) 4.69%

which is the situation with some hospitals over-stretched and other OK.
Thankfully it is not like Spain or Italy at closer to 15%.

Now, if you do nothing, the only thing to prevent the spread is "herd
immunity" which occurs when an infected person can (probability) only
pass the bug on to less that one person because every one else has
either had it and have antibodies or have been vaccinated and so also
have antibodies.  Now the question is how many people is that?

The lowest figure I have for the R (how many people it will spread to)
of this virus is 2.5 and the highest is 5. The crude way to find out
what percentage of the population will get infected is (R-1)/R or with
the numbers above

(2) 60% at best case
(3) 80% at worst case

That means for the American population of 331 million between

(4) 198 million infections best case
(5) 265 million infections worst case

and this will result in (using the USA figures and assuming the
hospitals will not become overwhelmed)

(6) 9 million deaths best case
(7) 12 million deaths worse case

That's not fake news. That is counting the bodies and the sick. Makes
the road toll look like a joke.

And if overwhelmed USA could be looking at about three times that number
(using Italy's and Spain's death rate).

Potentially 27 million to 36 million deaths.

Yea, I want my rights to do whatever I like, but I suspect if I
accidentally infect someone you know and they die, you will want to sue
me and want the police to charge me with manslaughter.

And of course death is forever...

Thank you for presenting the data in a way that even an ardent Trumpet
could understand.

I just hope they read this.

Here in Canada we are very worried about all our friends to the south.

John :-#(#

36 million deaths in the USA? The thing has peaked and is probably
declining and we might have 1/1000 of that, some confirmed by test and
some assumed.

There have been clusters of hundreds of confirmed C19 infections with
zero *symptoms*

1918 was far worse:

In the U.S., about 28% of the population of 105 million became
infected, and 500,000 to 850,000 died (0.48 to 0.81 percent of the
population).

- wiki

My number was prefaced with "if you do nothing (to control the spread)"

 

[david eather]

On 22/04/2020 11:35 am, Tom Del Rosso wrote:

Ricky C wrote:

For who knows what reason, they never shut down the subway, the
perfect inoculation facility. I never thought to see if they had
because that would have been the first thing I closed.

The subway is essential here. The essential workers wouldn't be able to
get to Manhattan without it. In the other boroughs lots of people don't
have cars so they couldn't even get around to buy supplies without a bus
or train.

I may be wrong, but isn't it possible to clean and sterilize air with a
HEPA filter and UV-C lighting. It would take a bit of work and is not as
safe as just shutting down, but it would allow the use of the subway
with less risk.

 

david eather <eathDELETEer@tpg.com.au> wrote in
news:8JOnG.67240$Jj2.64805@fx11.am4:

On 21/04/2020 2:45 pm, Corvid wrote:
On 04/20/2020 09:03 PM, david eather wrote:
I was watching the news and saw some protesters were running
around with signs say corona virus was "fake news".

Don't discourage them! They're the ones we need gone by November.


Yeah, it was a hard call to make.

Make a big lye pit trap and put some "Trump rally here!" sign behind
it, and watch them all run up and fall in.

I am a willing LYE-er! All Trumpanzees, step right this way...

Just say "None shall pass!" and like telling a kid no, you would get
bull rushed by Trump idiots.

 

[david eather]

On 22/04/2020 2:11 am, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:

On Tue, 21 Apr 2020 08:41:30 -0700 (PDT), dagmargoodboat@yahoo.com
wrote:

On Tuesday, April 21, 2020 at 2:59:13 AM UTC-4, Tom Del Rosso wrote:
John Robertson wrote:

Thank you for presenting the data in a way that even an ardent Trumpet
could understand.

I just hope they read this.

Here in Canada we are very worried about all our friends to the south.

It's largely concentrated here in NYC, and any analysis of "how badly
the US is doing" that doesn't consider that is a superficial analysis.

And here in NYC there aren't many Trump supporters, but there are a lot
of supporters of the super-corrupt Democrat mayor who said not to worry
in February, which greatly increased the national numbers so people
could blame Trump for them.

Of course the rebel types in rural states might make it spread their
way, or might not, but you're wrong to think they are doing that because
of Trump. They're doing it because they realize, on their own, that the
decision to re-open has to be made locally.

The Powerline has an amazing graph showing cumulative cases in
America's top 25 metro areas -- it's virtually *all* in NYC/Newark.
https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2020/04/did-the-shutdown-of-new-york-city-fail.php

That one little patch of ground, with a fraction of the population,
accounts for 42% of the whole country's cases.

Yikes. I never understood why so many people want to pack themselves
into New York and New Jersey. This thing may change that a little.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2020/04/21/if_half_the_countrys_deaths_were_in_montana_would_new_york_shut_down_142995.html

There have been a couple of books lately about people who moved from
New York to the south, sometimes rural south, and were shocked to find
kind, intelligent people.

Science teaches us to test , review and hypothesize

 

[david eather]

On 22/04/2020 1:41 am, dagmargoodboat@yahoo.com wrote:

On Tuesday, April 21, 2020 at 2:59:13 AM UTC-4, Tom Del Rosso wrote:
John Robertson wrote:

Thank you for presenting the data in a way that even an ardent Trumpet
could understand.

I just hope they read this.

Here in Canada we are very worried about all our friends to the south.

It's largely concentrated here in NYC, and any analysis of "how badly
the US is doing" that doesn't consider that is a superficial analysis.

And here in NYC there aren't many Trump supporters, but there are a lot
of supporters of the super-corrupt Democrat mayor who said not to worry
in February, which greatly increased the national numbers so people
could blame Trump for them.

Of course the rebel types in rural states might make it spread their
way, or might not, but you're wrong to think they are doing that because
of Trump. They're doing it because they realize, on their own, that the
decision to re-open has to be made locally.

The Powerline has an amazing graph showing cumulative cases in
America's top 25 metro areas -- it's virtually *all* in NYC/Newark.
https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2020/04/did-the-shutdown-of-new-york-city-fail.php

That one little patch of ground, with a fraction of the population,
accounts for 42% of the whole country's cases.

Cheers,
James Arthur

That little bit accounts for the area with the fastest spread. That
doesn't mean the other areas are immune.

 

Ricky C <gnuarm.deletethisbit@gmail.com> wrote in news:818e9fcc-55b3-
4cc0-9c5c-5ecd7ba63b37@googlegroups.com:

I guess we know why NYC is the CV capital of the world now.

Doubtful. Folks are not all that touchy feely even on a crowded
train, and I am sure they are not crowded any more.

 

"Tom Del Rosso" <fizzbintuesday@that-google-mail-domain.com> wrote
in news:r7o71o$fke$1@dont-email.me:

Ricky C wrote:

For who knows what reason, they never shut down the subway, the
perfect inoculation facility. I never thought to see if they had
because that would have been the first thing I closed.

The subway is essential here. The essential workers wouldn't be
able to get to Manhattan without it. In the other boroughs lots
of people don't have cars so they couldn't even get around to buy
supplies without a bus or train.

Not surprizing many folks lack the grasp of the fact that NYC is a
commuter city.

The only folks owning cars also have garages to put them in, so not
a huge number. And even if you had a agrage, when you go out where
do you park? Ok... I know. HAHAHA Very funny. But that did used
to be a huge problem, and then your car would be up on blocks when
you got back.

 

[david eather]

On 21/04/2020 2:45 pm, Corvid wrote:

On 04/20/2020 09:03 PM, david eather wrote:
I was watching the news and saw some protesters were running around with
signs say corona virus was "fake news".

Don't discourage them! They're the ones we need gone by November.

Yeah, it was a hard call to make.

 

[Phil Hobbs]

On 2020-04-21 23:27, david eather wrote:

On 22/04/2020 11:35 am, Tom Del Rosso wrote:
Ricky C wrote:

For who knows what reason, they never shut down the subway, the
perfect inoculation facility.  I never thought to see if they had
because that would have been the first thing I closed.

The subway is essential here. The essential workers wouldn't be able to
get to Manhattan without it.  In the other boroughs lots of people don't
have cars so they couldn't even get around to buy supplies without a bus
or train.




I may be wrong, but isn't it possible to clean and sterilize air with a
HEPA filter and UV-C lighting. It would take a bit of work and is not as
safe as just shutting down, but it would allow the use of the subway
with less risk.

You've obviously never ridden a NYC subway. At busy periods everyone is
cheek-by-jowl, inescapably breathing in what the others exhale, and
mostly holding on to shared stanchions or straps. Good luck
disinfecting that while there are people on board.

Also there's a lot of random people coming and going at each stop, so
the opportunity for contagion is much larger than in a classroom, for
example, where it's the same dramatis personae over and over.

HEPA air filtering might helps, as it has since the airlines started
using it. Some more attention to disinfecting cars at the ends of the
line would probably help a fair amount, but the main effect would be to
maintain social distancing by running a full schedule of mostly-empty cars.


Cheers

Phil Hobbs

--
Dr Philip C D Hobbs
Principal Consultant
ElectroOptical Innovations LLC / Hobbs ElectroOptics
Optics, Electro-optics, Photonics, Analog Electronics
Briarcliff Manor NY 10510

http://electrooptical.net
http://hobbs-eo.com