Why You Must Act Now

[Bill Sloman]

On Tuesday, March 17, 2020 at 1:23:51 AM UTC+11, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:

On Mon, 16 Mar 2020 11:18:29 +0000, Martin Brown
'''newspam'''@nezumi.demon.co.uk> wrote:

On 16/03/2020 03:20, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On 15 Mar 2020 19:26:36 -0700, Winfield Hill <winfieldhill@yahoo.com
wrote:

<snip>

The infection growth rate in a free society before any lock down
constraints are put on it is about 1.4^day_no or roughly 10^week_no. You
can see this in the graphs for Italy, France, Spain and the UK. The UK
graph actually looks *too* perfectly exponential growth for my liking.

What's also increasing exponentially is the availability of testing
kits.

The US doesn't seem to have nearly enough yet.

It remains to be seen exactly how the curve will change in the UK as
various measures are brought into play. There will be a lag of about 5
days for the latency of the virus before we can see their effects.

In China, the official infection count is about 80K, out of a
population of 1.4 billion.

But the draconian measures they used to halt the spread will have to be
taken off at some point and then the thing may well take off again.

Yes. There will be islands of infection that can reseed the country
for many months, maybe years. If they lock down for a year, people
will starve to death.

If they locked down the whole country for a year - perhaps.

Hubei Province was locked down for about two months.

If you find a island of infection, you lock down that island. The average gap between infection and visible symptoms is about five days and if you can social distance vigorously enough that you don't need all that many five day intervals for the outbreak to go away completely.

The
biggest problem is that no-one has any worthwhile immunity to this novel
virus that has only recently jumped species. No vaccine is in sight.

I think the UK government is probably doing the right thing based on
their excellent scientific advice but they are in danger of being blown
off course by panicking tabloid headlines.

The US press, and TV news, and internet, are hyperbolic on this. There
was Climate Change, then the Mueller/Russia thing, then impeachment,
now this. Single-subject hysterical monoculture.

John Larkin lacks the wit to understand what's going, let alone what is being said about it. If he can't understand what is being said, he thinks that the comments are "hysterical". It justifies his incomprehension, but it isn't actually correct.

In healthy adults the disease is very unpleasant but not normally life
threatening unless you are very unlucky. This is a novel highly
infectious disease that mostly kills the elderly and infirm with
pre-existing health conditions and the odd very unlucky medic.

This is mindless optimism. The disease hasn't killed anybody younger than nine yet, but it does kill some healthy young adults, and the death rate rises as you get older. It has been claimed to be around 10% for 70- to 80-year-olds risng to 15% for people older than 80.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

 

[Rick C]

On Monday, March 16, 2020 at 8:27:28 PM UTC-4, Phil Hobbs wrote:

Taiwan has done an excellent job with far less heavy-handed measures.
The SARS experience was an excellent dry-run. A pity the rest of the
world didn't take heed.

I did read that Taiwan and some other Asian locations are doing better than typical because of their prior experiences, but no details. Do you know what they are and aren't doing that is working?

I'm just not convinced the "social distancing" thing is going to work here. It's a limited measure in what will soon be a dire situation.

I've been in contact with a few friends today and it seems a number of them are taking this seriously, but can't just quit their jobs. But it seems companies are starting to realize they can't expect people to come to work only to get sick. Maybe a four week shutdown will cut contact enough to get the disease under control. But no one at the top (or near it) seems to realize that or at least is not in a position to discuss it publicly.

The data is just so clear. In less than two weeks we will be where China was around their peak. The numbers don't lie. We don't need Larkin's suspect simulations. Anyone can do the math, even him. An engineer should be able to believe the numbers.

--

Rick C.

---+ Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
---+ Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

 

[Bill Sloman]

On Tuesday, March 17, 2020 at 1:36:28 AM UTC+11, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:

On Mon, 16 Mar 2020 07:05:27 -0500, John S <Sophi.2@invalid.org
wrote:

On 3/15/2020 9:26 PM, Winfield Hill wrote:
Coronavirus: Why You Must Act Now - Tomas Pueyo

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-
f4d3d9cd99ca



Thanks for that Win. Excellent article, and I like the fact that he
applied math to make sensible approximations rather than just hand waving.

Computer models are wonderful. Just tweak a few parameters and get
something to publish.

John Larkin's grasp of what computer models are useful for is extremely limited.

He's got even less grasp of why people publish them.

He does exploit LTSpice, but doesn't seem to be aware that the device models are imperfect, and could be optimised for particular applications.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

 

[Gerhard Hoffmann]

Am 16.03.20 um 17:21 schrieb legg:

On Mon, 16 Mar 2020 07:16:49 -0700 (PDT),
bloggs.fredbloggs.fred@gmail.com wrote:

Hysterical nonsense - he's using the sitting duck theory wherein people

are oblivious to the danger and go on about life as usual,

and that's certainly NOT the case. The virus has been circulating in the U.S.

since at least October,

seems exaggerated,

and any deaths have been attributed to influenza. Suddenly, when the test kit becomes available, people are dying of corona left and right. Speaking of tests, someone needs to get on the ball and develop an ELISA for this virus. This testing methodology is about 10-25 % the cost of a PCR, the type they're now using, and it doesn't require a sophisticated lab to process the results. Sampling is a pin prick and they can really go to town assaying the entire population of the world if they want to. Singapore is about 90% of the way there but haven't developed anything scalable to commercial yet.

The US failure to produce effective test kits in volume is a disgrace.
CDC budget cuts occurred at roughly the same time as those to EPA etc.
New heads appointed at roughly the same time.

Space Force !

Material for a PCR test coats €2,50 as was stated in an interview with
the CEO of a local company in southern Berlin that mass produces the
stuff. Work time for a test is 6 minutes, total wall clock time 6 hours.
Total cost is abt. €10 . Here is no shortage of tests.

A black African country sent their embassador in person to make sure
the tests are delivered asap. They know they are f*cked when corona
spreads there. The CEO complained that he may not send tests to Iran,
and you Americans wonder why everybody loves you around the world.

And the day after his reclamation, DT tries to buy a leading vaccine
company in TĂźbingen, Germany that works on Corona with the Paul Ehrlich
Institute, run by the German government - for *exclusive* US use of
the results.
He got as far as in his Greenland adventure.
Vulture a****ole.

Gerhard

 

[Bill Sloman]

On Tuesday, March 17, 2020 at 1:16:58 AM UTC+11, bloggs.fre...@gmail.com wrote:

On Sunday, March 15, 2020 at 10:52:52 PM UTC-4, Winfield Hill wrote:
Coronavirus: Why You Must Act Now - Tomas Pueyo

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-
f4d3d9cd99ca

Hysterical nonsense - he's using the sitting duck theory wherein people are oblivious to the danger and go on about life as usual, and that's certainly NOT the case. The virus has been circulating in the U.S. since at least October,

I wonder why Fred thinks that. The first case seems to have been recorded on the 1st December 2019, in China.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_pandemic

If it had been circulating in the US since October - six months, 180 days or 36 5-day infection cycles - everybody in the US would have had it by the end of December 2019, absent the social distancing measures that the US doesn't really seem to fully understand.

> and any deaths have been attributed to influenza. Suddenly, when the test kit becomes available, people are dying of corona left and right.

When people start dying of the Covid-19 infection, it does get noticed. It takes a couple of hundred to get the attention of the medical establishment, but the progress of the disease seems to be different enough from influenza that the doctors treating the patients do notice.

<snip>

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

 

[Bill Sloman]

On Tuesday, March 17, 2020 at 1:46:25 AM UTC+11, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:

On Mon, 16 Mar 2020 07:16:49 -0700 (PDT),
bloggs.fredbloggs.fred@gmail.com wrote:

On Sunday, March 15, 2020 at 10:52:52 PM UTC-4, Winfield Hill wrote:
Coronavirus: Why You Must Act Now - Tomas Pueyo

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-
f4d3d9cd99ca

Hysterical nonsense - he's using the sitting duck theory wherein people are oblivious to the danger and go on about life as usual, and that's certainly NOT the case. The virus has been circulating in the U.S. since at least October, and any deaths have been attributed to influenza. Suddenly, when the test kit becomes available, people are dying of corona left and right..

If the Covid-19 virus had started circulating in the US in October, with an R0 of three, and a five day interval between infection and visible symptoms (and peak capacity to infect other people) the whole of the US would have been infected in 90 days - which would have been January this year.

Exactly. There were no confirmed cases until the test kits became
available. The first kits became available in mid-January. The test
kit supply certainly distorts the exponential growth data.

People dying of the disease is a pretty effective indicator of it's presence. That's what kicked the authorities in Iran into recognising that they had it.

Test kits give you an earlier indication - the first US death had been tested, but the result wasn't available until after they had died.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

 

[Rick C]

On Monday, March 16, 2020 at 10:11:11 PM UTC-4, dagmarg...@yahoo.com wrote:

On Monday, March 16, 2020 at 5:45:13 PM UTC-4, Rick C wrote:
On Monday, March 16, 2020 at 4:14:18 PM UTC-4, dagmarg...@yahoo.com wrote:
On Sunday, March 15, 2020 at 11:36:58 PM UTC-4, Rick C wrote:
On Sunday, March 15, 2020 at 11:20:58 PM UTC-4, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On 15 Mar 2020 19:26:36 -0700, Winfield Hill <winfieldhill@yahoo.com
wrote:

Coronavirus: Why You Must Act Now - Tomas Pueyo

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-
f4d3d9cd99ca

"It’s a matter of days. Maybe a week or two.
When it does, your healthcare system will be overwhelmed."

There was a piece in the NY Times this morning projecting that 100
million, or maybe 200 million, Americans will catch this virus. So
far, the number is reported around 4K, about 13 PPM. The chart on your
link shows only 400 cases in the US, about 1 PPM.

In China, the official infection count is about 80K, out of a
population of 1.4 billion.

Why is it that Larkin posts disconnected facts and says nothing about them?

You mean why do smart people sometimes post salient points and
assume their audience can fill in the rest?

Because it saves time, and it's an efficient way to communicate
when the audience is well-matched.

You mean he has nothing worth saying so why say it? Yes, I agree.

No, I was saying I enjoy his insights and have no trouble
understanding him.

Yes, from you that's equivalent to what I said.

--

Rick C.

--++ Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
--++ Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

 

[Bill Sloman]

On Tuesday, March 17, 2020 at 1:11:11 PM UTC+11, dagmarg...@yahoo.com wrote:

On Monday, March 16, 2020 at 5:45:13 PM UTC-4, Rick C wrote:
On Monday, March 16, 2020 at 4:14:18 PM UTC-4, dagmarg...@yahoo.com wrote:
On Sunday, March 15, 2020 at 11:36:58 PM UTC-4, Rick C wrote:
On Sunday, March 15, 2020 at 11:20:58 PM UTC-4, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On 15 Mar 2020 19:26:36 -0700, Winfield Hill <winfieldhill@yahoo.com
wrote:

Coronavirus: Why You Must Act Now - Tomas Pueyo

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-
f4d3d9cd99ca

"It’s a matter of days. Maybe a week or two.
When it does, your healthcare system will be overwhelmed."

There was a piece in the NY Times this morning projecting that 100
million, or maybe 200 million, Americans will catch this virus. So
far, the number is reported around 4K, about 13 PPM. The chart on your
link shows only 400 cases in the US, about 1 PPM.

In China, the official infection count is about 80K, out of a
population of 1.4 billion.

Why is it that Larkin posts disconnected facts and says nothing about them?

You mean why do smart people sometimes post salient points and
assume their audience can fill in the rest?

Because it saves time, and it's an efficient way to communicate
when the audience is well-matched.

You mean he has nothing worth saying so why say it? Yes, I agree.

No, I was saying I enjoy his insights and have no trouble
understanding him.

The kind of insights that James Arthur enjoys are at the level of "socialism is exactly the same as communism". They aren't actually insights - more like shared delusions.

James Arthur understands that while John Larkin isn't his kind of right-wing nitwit, he's gullible enough to believe the same kind of nonsense.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

 

[Bill Sloman]

On Tuesday, March 17, 2020 at 2:27:04 AM UTC+11, bloggs.fre...@gmail.com wrote:

On Monday, March 16, 2020 at 10:46:25 AM UTC-4, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Mon, 16 Mar 2020 07:16:49 -0700 (PDT),
bloggs.fredbloggs.fred@gmail.com wrote:

On Sunday, March 15, 2020 at 10:52:52 PM UTC-4, Winfield Hill wrote:
Coronavirus: Why You Must Act Now - Tomas Pueyo

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-
f4d3d9cd99ca

Hysterical nonsense - he's using the sitting duck theory wherein people are oblivious to the danger and go on about life as usual, and that's certainly NOT the case. The virus has been circulating in the U.S. since at least October, and any deaths have been attributed to influenza. Suddenly, when the test kit becomes available, people are dying of corona left and right.

Exactly. There were no confirmed cases until the test kits became
available. The first kits became available in mid-January. The test
kit supply certainly distorts the exponential growth data.

Getting back to the air pollution theme, a recently published study has quantified this effect:

Study: Coronavirus Lockdown Likely Saved 77,000 Lives In China Just By Reducing Pollution

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jeffmcmahon/2020/03/16/coronavirus-lockdown-may-have-saved-77000-lives-in-china-just-from-pollution-reduction/#6670c62334fe

So many interfering factors here, only a fool takes the numbers at face value.

But there are fools around who claim that Covid-19 has been circulating in the US since October.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

 

[Bill Sloman]

On Tuesday, March 17, 2020 at 2:09:19 AM UTC+11, bloggs.fre...@gmail.com wrote:

On Monday, March 16, 2020 at 10:46:25 AM UTC-4, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Mon, 16 Mar 2020 07:16:49 -0700 (PDT),
bloggs.fredbloggs.fred@gmail.com wrote:

On Sunday, March 15, 2020 at 10:52:52 PM UTC-4, Winfield Hill wrote:
Coronavirus: Why You Must Act Now - Tomas Pueyo

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-
f4d3d9cd99ca

Hysterical nonsense - he's using the sitting duck theory wherein people are oblivious to the danger and go on about life as usual, and that's certainly NOT the case. The virus has been circulating in the U.S. since at least October, and any deaths have been attributed to influenza. Suddenly, when the test kit becomes available, people are dying of corona left and right.

Exactly. There were no confirmed cases until the test kits became
available. The first kits became available in mid-January. The test
kit supply certainly distorts the exponential growth data.

And the tests were only administered to people exhibiting symptoms AND having a reasonably *high* risk of exposure. That's a very skewed sample. Bunches of people have already been infected and recovered, we'll never know.

Covid-19 is a very infectious virus. If a bunch of people had been infected early on, they would have infected a much larger bunch of people.

If - as Fred claims - the virus was circulating in the US in October, the entire country would have been infected some time in January - assuming an R0 of three and five day infection cycle 3^18 is about 330 million, and 18 five days cycles takes 90 days.

> If the average mortality is 1%, then the recovery rate is 99%. Younger healthy people have only very mild symptoms they barely notice.

But some of them still die. Even 1% of 330 million is 3.3 million deaths and that would have been noticed. The natural death rate in the US is about 4 million people per year, and the Corid-19 deaths would have been concentrated in the last month of so of the epidemic.

Iran noticed that it had a Corvid-19 problem when they'd clocked up about 100 deaths. they are now up to 853 with 15,000 cases of whom 5000 have recovered.

> Most of urban China does in fact have diseased and/or weak lungs from a lifetime of breathing heavily polluted air, and that does not bode well for surviving a serious respiratory infection in any case. The mortality data from China may not be applicable to first world western countries.

Perhaps, but it is still killing people. The Diamond Princess cruise ship has 696 cases of whom 456 have recovered, 6 have died and 15 are still in a serious or critical condition.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

 

John Larkin <jlarkin@highland_atwork_technology.com> wrote in
news:mhdv6fl7a4la7ripccsrq07d00h16nlmv1@4ax.com:

On Mon, 16 Mar 2020 11:42:21 -0400, Bob Engelhardt
BobEngelhardt@comcast.net> wrote:

On 3/16/2020 10:23 AM, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
...
The US press, and TV news, and internet, are hyperbolic on this.
There was Climate Change, then the Mueller/Russia thing, then
impeachment, now this. Single-subject hysterical monoculture.

Do you believe that the situation in Italy is just hyperbole? If
you accept that it's real, do you have any reason to think that
the US will be any different?

It is interesting that some countries are so different from
others.

Were the population of the US told to stay at home locked inside,
we would NOT be at our windows singing songs of joy and greeting each
of our neighbors.

Rank individualism fucked this country's communal mindset decades
ago. Yeah.. it's rank alright.

 

[Bill Sloman]

On Tuesday, March 17, 2020 at 1:34:20 AM UTC+11, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:

On Sun, 15 Mar 2020 23:29:36 -0700, John Robertson <spam@flippers.com
wrote:

On 2020/03/15 7:26 p.m., Winfield Hill wrote:
Coronavirus: Why You Must Act Now - Tomas Pueyo

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca



(fixed broken link above, but wrapping will likely tear it apart again
so I made a...)


TinyURL version of Winfield's original link:

https://tinyurl.com/tomaspueyo-Coronavirus

I expect that Mr. Pueyo has done his due diligence, as it appears to be
valid information based on what I have seen elsewhere on CDC and other
valid sites.

John :-#(#


He said this on March 10:

It’s coming at an exponential speed: gradually, and then suddenly..
It’s a matter of days. Maybe a week or two.
When it does, your healthcare system will be overwhelmed.

"A matter of days" is up. The first week is almost over. We have 3700
confirmed cases in the US so far, 68 deaths. On a normal day in the
US, about 10K people die.

This may be a more serious than the usual flu, or maybe not, but the
hysteria level is unprecedented.

It's blindingly obvious that it is more serious than the usual seasonal flu, and the interest in the media reflects that. Some of the responses are hysterical and over the top, and lots of them are ill-informed, but it's a serious problem even if John Larkin can't quite understand why.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

 

On Monday, March 16, 2020 at 5:45:13 PM UTC-4, Rick C wrote:

On Monday, March 16, 2020 at 4:14:18 PM UTC-4, dagmarg...@yahoo.com wrote:
On Sunday, March 15, 2020 at 11:36:58 PM UTC-4, Rick C wrote:
On Sunday, March 15, 2020 at 11:20:58 PM UTC-4, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On 15 Mar 2020 19:26:36 -0700, Winfield Hill <winfieldhill@yahoo.com
wrote:

Coronavirus: Why You Must Act Now - Tomas Pueyo

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-
f4d3d9cd99ca

"It’s a matter of days. Maybe a week or two.
When it does, your healthcare system will be overwhelmed."

There was a piece in the NY Times this morning projecting that 100
million, or maybe 200 million, Americans will catch this virus. So
far, the number is reported around 4K, about 13 PPM. The chart on your
link shows only 400 cases in the US, about 1 PPM.

In China, the official infection count is about 80K, out of a
population of 1.4 billion.

Why is it that Larkin posts disconnected facts and says nothing about them?

You mean why do smart people sometimes post salient points and
assume their audience can fill in the rest?

Because it saves time, and it's an efficient way to communicate
when the audience is well-matched.

You mean he has nothing worth saying so why say it? Yes, I agree.

No, I was saying I enjoy his insights and have no trouble
understanding him.

Cheers,
James Arthur

 

> Much as Edward tried to impress on us, there was no point where the epidemiologists didn't think it would be a world wide pandemic even if they wouldn't use that term.

I was not trying to impress anybody. Just saying that the number came out of China didn't make sense and the world was too competent about the situation.

> Back in January I know I was still waiting to see how effective the isolation would be. Now we know that if you think your country has a few hundred infections, there are likely 10,000 infected people. I saw a report that said 80 people were infected at a conference where there were no people with any symptoms.

Yes, it's the same situation in the US and many other countries, but as least they don't arrest and silence people just speaking out about the discrepancy.

 

[Rick C]

On Monday, March 16, 2020 at 9:48:19 PM UTC-4, Bill Sloman wrote:

On Tuesday, March 17, 2020 at 1:34:20 AM UTC+11, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:

He said this on March 10:

It’s coming at an exponential speed: gradually, and then suddenly.
It’s a matter of days. Maybe a week or two.
When it does, your healthcare system will be overwhelmed.

"A matter of days" is up. The first week is almost over. We have 3700
confirmed cases in the US so far, 68 deaths. On a normal day in the
US, about 10K people die.

This may be a more serious than the usual flu, or maybe not, but the
hysteria level is unprecedented.

It's blindingly obvious that it is more serious than the usual seasonal flu, and the interest in the media reflects that. Some of the responses are hysterical and over the top, and lots of them are ill-informed, but it's a serious problem even if John Larkin can't quite understand why.

I really can't imagine anyone in this entire group is paying any attention to Larkin on this matter. While there are other denialists on the other topics Larkin rants about, there are very few idiots claiming we can ignore the disease and take our family out to dinner. Mostly just politicians.

Larkin is not a politician, but he is a very special kind of idiot. One who is literally incapable of seeing when he has no idea what he is talking about.

It's precious that Larkin can't understand an exponential curve. But that should come as no surprise as he often talks about his poor math skills. But mostly Larkin is hiding with his head in the sand. It's hard to not appreciate the full extent of this matter at this point. It really takes a special kind of moron.

--

Rick C.

--+- Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
--+- Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

 

>CDC budget cuts occurred at ...

They occurred roughly at the Twilight zone. Trump shook down the place a bit yes, but it probably needed it. And the budget cuts he proposed were mainly for the chronic diseases, not epidemic preparedness.

What's more those budget cuts DID NOT EVEN GO THROUGH, in fact the budget got INCREASED.

For good or bad this government has a habit of just throwing money at a problem (with their own buddies playing catcher of course) and no amount of money budgeting a federal office is going to do anything. What HAS been done is money has been mobilised for test kits. The test kits from Germany are fraught with error, not only false positives but I heard false negatives as well. Well if they're that good WTF do we want with them. So any country using the current German made test kits might not know for sure.

So of course we do not want them. Really, weighing it all in this economy is very important right now. And we got enemies, they are shorting stocks trying to make the market crash for political reasons. Just what we fucking need.

So we will apparently make our own kits and hopefully we can trust them. They could be inherently errorsome, that remains to be seen. Let's see how they do, what else ?

I see now they are closing bars and restaurants. Well I guess that makes sense but the people who own those businesses can't take it forever. So we need this resolved.

And we don't need people politicising it.

 

[Bill Sloman]

On Tuesday, March 17, 2020 at 1:02:57 PM UTC+11, edward...@gmail.com wrote:

Much as Edward tried to impress on us, there was no point where the epidemiologists didn't think it would be a world wide pandemic even if they wouldn't use that term.

I was not trying to impress anybody. Just saying that the numbers that came out of China didn't make sense and the world was too complacent about the situation.

Sadly, dreaming up numbers you liked better, but couldn't find any evidence to support wasn't a way of getting yourself taken seriously.

> > Back in January I know I was still waiting to see how effective the isolation would be. Now we know that if you think your country has a few hundred infections, there are likely 10,000 infected people. I saw a report that said 80 people were infected at a conference where there were no people with any symptoms.

That is the unique selling point of the Covid-19 virus. More recent comments emphasise that you get progressively more infectious as you get closer to showing symptoms - the virus has to multiply in your body before there are many virus particles to shed, and some of the new virus particles are infecting your cells rather than heading out and infecting other peoples.

> Yes, it's the same situation in the US and many other countries, but as least they don't arrest and silence people just for speaking out about the discrepancy.

That does seem to have been lower level response at the start of the epidemic.
Totalitarian regimes work like that out of habit.

There are plenty of other unhelpful reactions, and Trump has managed exhibit quite a few of them.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

 

[Rick C]

On Monday, March 16, 2020 at 11:06:16 PM UTC-4, jurb...@gmail.com wrote:

I see now they are closing bars and restaurants. Well I guess that makes sense but the people who own those businesses can't take it forever. So we need this resolved.

So this is about business and not health? What does it mean "So we need this resolved"??? What do you expect anyone to do to "resolve" it?

> And we don't need people politicising it.

Of course it is going to be politicized. That's the only way to get anything done in politics and government. We need to let everyone involved know we will hold them responsible for every decision they make.

I think what you intended to say was we don't need people making this a partisan issue. No, party politics should not be playing into it. But that happens every time we try to do anything important in politics. Hell, we can't even pass a budget without it turning into a major shutdown of government where less gets done and in the end it costs us more.

Until the last few days the major concern of the Federal government has been the stock market and business survival. Who the hell cares if businesses survive and the employees and customers don't? We can easily start new businesses or actually the strong will still stand. So this is a business Darwinian event that will result in a stronger herd.

Someone needs to check the hand sanitizer dispenser at Walmart to see if the batteries have run down.

--

Rick C.

-+-- Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
-+-- Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

 

[Michael Terrell]

On Monday, March 16, 2020 at 8:37:31 PM UTC-4, mpm wrote:

On Monday, March 16, 2020 at 1:46:12 PM UTC-4, Rick C wrote:

It sounds rational, but the devil is in the details. What does it mean exactly "might change subsequent actions"? Anyone who tests positive will be treated for the disease even if this only means self quarantine at home.. But if many are not tested, many infected won't know to be quarantined.

Rick,
Have you considered that there might not be that much difference between social distancing and self-quarantine at home?

How many people (really!) are going to STAY HOME on quarantine, especially on an honor-system basis? I can almost hear the rationalizations pouring in.. "It's only a quick run to the corner store. I'll be quick." Etc...

We have instances of criminals with ankle bracelets breaking house arrest! (Of course, one could argue that criminals are stupid.)

I believe "the masses" will mostly put up with slight inconveniences for a while, out of novelty it nothing else. But I have to wonder how much cooperation there'll really be in the long term (meaning months), if it comes to that.

I normally have at least 30 days worth of food on hand, because of being disabled. As long as I don't run out of water, I also have a 90 day supply of bulk, freeze dried food. Due to several times of being stuck at home for over 30 days at a time, it's the norm to keep enough on hand. I see my VA doctor this week, then I'll have no reason to leave the house for weeks.

 

[Reinhardt Behm]

On 3/17/20 5:44 AM, Rick C wrote:

On Monday, March 16, 2020 at 4:06:43 PM UTC-4, bloggs.fre...@gmail.com wrote:

Budget? What's that? These federal agencies have any number of emergency funds they can tap into if they need money. The stuff about Trump budget cuts is all political and has nothing to do with CDC mismanagement.

Perhaps, but the matter of disbanding the NSC directorate for global health and security and bio-defense was all on Trump. No, it isn't a catastrophy that we didn't have that group for this crisis. But in the words of Dr. Anthony Fauci, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases at the National Institute of Health, "It would be nice if the office was still there... we worked very well with that office.”

Instead we have Pence.

He will pray it away.

And you know what the test kits were originally intended for? It wasn't a medical diagnostic, it was case confirmation. And then they were going to assign investigators to each confirmation to hunt down all the contacts and try to determine the source of the infection. That's an idiotic idea and it became apparent within a week there aren't enough resources in the world to make that work. Now they've completely flip-flopped on the individual-centric treatment to locking down the whole country. They don't need test kits.

Of course they need test kits. They still need to confirm diagnoses for treatment and isolation. At this point we don't need to be lumping colds in with COVID-19. It is also important to track the disease to tell which measures work and which measures don't.

--
Reinhardt