Why You Must Act Now

[legg]

On 15 Mar 2020 19:26:36 -0700, Winfield Hill <winfieldhill@yahoo.com>
wrote:

Coronavirus: Why You Must Act Now - Tomas Pueyo

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-
f4d3d9cd99ca

reposting, with apologies . .

The Lancet published a recalculation of the case fatality
rate, taking the delay between 'diagnosed' and death into
account, as of March 1st. This looked to have stabilized at
about 6%, vs the 1-2% being generally spouted before March 15.
It's now 3.5%.

>https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099%2820%2930195-X/fulltext

The CFR of SARS rose from 3% to 10%, as all the data came in,
without similar delays being considered in the mean time.

By age, in China, up to Feb 11:

https://ourworldindata.org/uploads/2020/03/Coronavirus-CFR-by-age-in-China-1-800x526.png

With underlying health conditions:

https://ourworldindata.org/uploads/2020/03/Coronavirus-CFR-by-health-condition-in-China.png

Seasonal flu fatality rates are generally an order of magnitude lower.

RL

 

[Tom Gardner]

On 16/03/20 14:23, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:

On Mon, 16 Mar 2020 11:18:29 +0000, Martin Brown
'''newspam'''@nezumi.demon.co.uk> wrote:

On 16/03/2020 03:20, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On 15 Mar 2020 19:26:36 -0700, Winfield Hill <winfieldhill@yahoo.com
wrote:

Coronavirus: Why You Must Act Now - Tomas Pueyo

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-
f4d3d9cd99ca

"It’s a matter of days. Maybe a week or two.
When it does, your healthcare system will be overwhelmed."

He is being overly pessimistic there (although the US is actually blind
to its true infection levels due to inadequate testing capability).

If the infection growth rate remains at the present daily value then the
daily case count increases with day number N like 1.4^N going forward.

That means a roughly a million times more cases in about 40 days time.

Let's see.


If we can use social distancing to get the daily growth factor down to
1.2 or 1.3 then the corresponding figures are much better. Tens of
thousands in the best case and a much more manageable broad hump.

US immigration appeared to be trying for the Guinness Book of records
for how many people they could infect with their dumb stunt yesterday.

There was a piece in the NY Times this morning projecting that 100
million, or maybe 200 million, Americans will catch this virus. So
far, the number is reported around 4K, about 13 PPM. The chart on your
link shows only 400 cases in the US, about 1 PPM.

The infection growth rate in a free society before any lock down
constraints are put on it is about 1.4^day_no or roughly 10^week_no. You
can see this in the graphs for Italy, France, Spain and the UK. The UK
graph actually looks *too* perfectly exponential growth for my liking.

What's also increasing exponentially is the availability of testing
kits.

In the US that wouldn't be difficult!

In the UK we are scaling back testing of people with cough
or fever in the community, reserving testing for those in
hospital.

It remains to be seen exactly how the curve will change in the UK as
various measures are brought into play. There will be a lag of about 5
days for the latency of the virus before we can see their effects.

In China, the official infection count is about 80K, out of a
population of 1.4 billion.

But the draconian measures they used to halt the spread will have to be
taken off at some point and then the thing may well take off again.

Yes. There will be islands of infection that can reseed the country
for many months, maybe years.

I think the general presumption is that it will become endemic,
as did Spanish flu.


> If they lock down for a year, people will starve to death.

That's alarmist, and depends on what "lockdown" actually
consists of. "Lockdown" isn't binary; it is shades of grey.

The
biggest problem is that no-one has any worthwhile immunity to this novel
virus that has only recently jumped species. No vaccine is in sight.

I think the UK government is probably doing the right thing based on
their excellent scientific advice but they are in danger of being blown
off course by panicking tabloid headlines.

The US press, and TV news, and internet, are hyperbolic on this. There
was Climate Change, then the Mueller/Russia thing, then impeachment,
now this. Single-subject hysterical monoculture.

Well, it does sell newspapers and adverts, so of course
the good capitalists will jump on board.

But that indicates /nothing/ about the seriousness of
the situation.

 

On Mon, 16 Mar 2020 07:05:27 -0500, John S <Sophi.2@invalid.org>
wrote:

On 3/15/2020 9:26 PM, Winfield Hill wrote:
Coronavirus: Why You Must Act Now - Tomas Pueyo

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-
f4d3d9cd99ca



Thanks for that Win. Excellent article, and I like the fact that he
applied math to make sensible approximations rather than just hand waving.

Computer models are wonderful. Just tweak a few parameters and get
something to publish.



--

John Larkin Highland Technology, Inc

The cork popped merrily, and Lord Peter rose to his feet.
"Bunter", he said, "I give you a toast. The triumph of Instinct over Reason"

 

On Mon, 16 Mar 2020 09:21:24 +0200, upsidedown@downunder.com wrote:

On 15 Mar 2020 19:26:36 -0700, Winfield Hill <winfieldhill@yahoo.com
wrote:

Coronavirus: Why You Must Act Now - Tomas Pueyo

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-
f4d3d9cd99ca

Previously we had all kinds of climate alarmists.

Now we have all kinds of corona alarmists

"Worried? Drink a different beer."



--

John Larkin Highland Technology, Inc

The cork popped merrily, and Lord Peter rose to his feet.
"Bunter", he said, "I give you a toast. The triumph of Instinct over Reason"

 

On Mon, 16 Mar 2020 08:26:55 -0700 (PDT),
bloggs.fredbloggs.fred@gmail.com wrote:

On Monday, March 16, 2020 at 10:46:25 AM UTC-4, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Mon, 16 Mar 2020 07:16:49 -0700 (PDT),
bloggs.fredbloggs.fred@gmail.com wrote:

On Sunday, March 15, 2020 at 10:52:52 PM UTC-4, Winfield Hill wrote:
Coronavirus: Why You Must Act Now - Tomas Pueyo

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-
f4d3d9cd99ca


--
Thanks,
- Win

Hysterical nonsense - he's using the sitting duck theory wherein people are oblivious to the danger and go on about life as usual, and that's certainly NOT the case. The virus has been circulating in the U.S. since at least October, and any deaths have been attributed to influenza. Suddenly, when the test kit becomes available, people are dying of corona left and right.

Exactly. There were no confirmed cases until the test kits became
available. The first kits became available in mid-January. The test
kit supply certainly distorts the exponential growth data.

Getting back to the air pollution theme, a recently published study has quantified this effect:

Study: Coronavirus Lockdown Likely Saved 77,000 Lives In China Just By Reducing Pollution

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jeffmcmahon/2020/03/16/coronavirus-lockdown-may-have-saved-77000-lives-in-china-just-from-pollution-reduction/#6670c62334fe

So many interfering factors here, only a fool takes the numbers at face value.

The Chinese smoke a lot too, 52% among men.






--

John Larkin Highland Technology, Inc

The cork popped merrily, and Lord Peter rose to his feet.
"Bunter", he said, "I give you a toast. The triumph of Instinct over Reason"

 

[Rick C]

On Monday, March 16, 2020 at 5:41:37 AM UTC-4, Rob wrote:

Bill Sloman <bill.sloman@ieee.org> wrote:
Too bad an engineering group doesn't have people who know how to do the math for exponential increases.

Quite a few of us can do it. It's quite a while now since I pointed out that the - initially exponential - increase in case numbers in Wuhan had started rolling off and that the curve had started to look more like a logistic curve.

OF COURSE any exponential growth curve is always going to flatten at some
point, only economists believe in exponential growth.

However, the reason that those curves do not keep growing exponentially
for a while in cases of viral infections like this is not as much that
the actual number of infections stops increasing, but that the capacity
of the medical system to test for and count the infections gets saturated.

That doesn't explain the events happening in China unless you think the medical system in China can no longer detect even 50 new cases per day. The infection rate there has dropped to such low levels they barely rank in the top 20 countries.

The issue of testing capacity is more a factor early on as the more primitive countries struggle to ramp up their testing capabilities. Countries like Vietnam, Thailand, Qatar and the USA.

--

Rick C.

-- Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
-- Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

 

[Bob Engelhardt]

On 3/16/2020 10:23 AM, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
....

The US press, and TV news, and internet, are hyperbolic on this. There
was Climate Change, then the Mueller/Russia thing, then impeachment,
now this. Single-subject hysterical monoculture.

Do you believe that the situation in Italy is just hyperbole? If you
accept that it's real, do you have any reason to think that the US will
be any different?

 

On Monday, March 16, 2020 at 10:46:25 AM UTC-4, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:

On Mon, 16 Mar 2020 07:16:49 -0700 (PDT),
bloggs.fredbloggs.fred@gmail.com wrote:

On Sunday, March 15, 2020 at 10:52:52 PM UTC-4, Winfield Hill wrote:
Coronavirus: Why You Must Act Now - Tomas Pueyo

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-
f4d3d9cd99ca


--
Thanks,
- Win

Hysterical nonsense - he's using the sitting duck theory wherein people are oblivious to the danger and go on about life as usual, and that's certainly NOT the case. The virus has been circulating in the U.S. since at least October, and any deaths have been attributed to influenza. Suddenly, when the test kit becomes available, people are dying of corona left and right..

Exactly. There were no confirmed cases until the test kits became
available. The first kits became available in mid-January. The test
kit supply certainly distorts the exponential growth data.

Getting back to the air pollution theme, a recently published study has quantified this effect:

Study: Coronavirus Lockdown Likely Saved 77,000 Lives In China Just By Reducing Pollution

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jeffmcmahon/2020/03/16/coronavirus-lockdown-may-have-saved-77000-lives-in-china-just-from-pollution-reduction/#6670c62334fe

So many interfering factors here, only a fool takes the numbers at face value.

--

John Larkin Highland Technology, Inc

The cork popped merrily, and Lord Peter rose to his feet.
"Bunter", he said, "I give you a toast. The triumph of Instinct over Reason"

 

On Mon, 16 Mar 2020 07:16:49 -0700 (PDT),
bloggs.fredbloggs.fred@gmail.com wrote:

On Sunday, March 15, 2020 at 10:52:52 PM UTC-4, Winfield Hill wrote:
Coronavirus: Why You Must Act Now - Tomas Pueyo

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-
f4d3d9cd99ca


--
Thanks,
- Win

Hysterical nonsense - he's using the sitting duck theory wherein people are oblivious to the danger and go on about life as usual, and that's certainly NOT the case. The virus has been circulating in the U.S. since at least October, and any deaths have been attributed to influenza. Suddenly, when the test kit becomes available, people are dying of corona left and right.

Exactly. There were no confirmed cases until the test kits became
available. The first kits became available in mid-January. The test
kit supply certainly distorts the exponential growth data.



--

John Larkin Highland Technology, Inc

The cork popped merrily, and Lord Peter rose to his feet.
"Bunter", he said, "I give you a toast. The triumph of Instinct over Reason"

 

[Tom Gardner]

On 16/03/20 14:36, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:

On Mon, 16 Mar 2020 07:05:27 -0500, John S <Sophi.2@invalid.org
wrote:

On 3/15/2020 9:26 PM, Winfield Hill wrote:
Coronavirus: Why You Must Act Now - Tomas Pueyo

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-
f4d3d9cd99ca



Thanks for that Win. Excellent article, and I like the fact that he
applied math to make sensible approximations rather than just hand waving.

Computer models are wonderful. Just tweak a few parameters and get
something to publish.

There's some validity to that, but:
- all models are wrong - but they can still be *useful*
- you use LTSpice to model a circuit

 

On Monday, March 16, 2020 at 10:46:25 AM UTC-4, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:

On Mon, 16 Mar 2020 07:16:49 -0700 (PDT),
bloggs.fredbloggs.fred@gmail.com wrote:

On Sunday, March 15, 2020 at 10:52:52 PM UTC-4, Winfield Hill wrote:
Coronavirus: Why You Must Act Now - Tomas Pueyo

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-
f4d3d9cd99ca


--
Thanks,
- Win

Hysterical nonsense - he's using the sitting duck theory wherein people are oblivious to the danger and go on about life as usual, and that's certainly NOT the case. The virus has been circulating in the U.S. since at least October, and any deaths have been attributed to influenza. Suddenly, when the test kit becomes available, people are dying of corona left and right..

Exactly. There were no confirmed cases until the test kits became
available. The first kits became available in mid-January. The test
kit supply certainly distorts the exponential growth data.

And the tests were only administered to people exhibiting symptoms AND having a reasonably *high* risk of exposure. That's a very skewed sample. Bunches of people have already been infected and recovered, we'll never know. If the average mortality is 1%, then the recovery rate is 99%. Younger healthy people have only very mild symptoms they barely notice.
Most of urban China does in fact have diseased and/or weak lungs from a lifetime of breathing heavily polluted air, and that does not bode well for surviving a serious respiratory infection in any case. The mortality data from China may not be applicable to first world western countries.

--

John Larkin Highland Technology, Inc

The cork popped merrily, and Lord Peter rose to his feet.
"Bunter", he said, "I give you a toast. The triumph of Instinct over Reason"

 

[Rick C]

On Monday, March 16, 2020 at 9:41:32 AM UTC-4, Bill Sloman wrote:

On Monday, March 16, 2020 at 10:18:34 PM UTC+11, Martin Brown wrote:
On 16/03/2020 03:20, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On 15 Mar 2020 19:26:36 -0700, Winfield Hill <winfieldhill@yahoo.com
wrote:

Coronavirus: Why You Must Act Now - Tomas Pueyo

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-
f4d3d9cd99ca

"It’s a matter of days. Maybe a week or two.
When it does, your healthcare system will be overwhelmed."

He is being overly pessimistic there (although the US is actually blind
to its true infection levels due to inadequate testing capability).

If the infection growth rate remains at the present daily value then the
daily case count increases with day number N like 1.4^N going forward.

That means a roughly a million times more cases in about 40 days time.

If we can use social distancing to get the daily growth factor down to
1.2 or 1.3 then the corresponding figures are much better. Tens of
thousands in the best case and a much more manageable broad hump.

Social distancing can do better than that, and seems to have done so in Hubei Province.

"Social distancing" in Hubei??? I don't think that is the right term for it and that is the problem. China seems to be the only country that has its infection rate under anything like control. They did it by draconian measures that are far beyond "social distancing".

My concern is that other than buying mass quantities of toilet paper, most people don't seem to be much aware of the issues involved. Yesterday in the supermarket people were just doing their thing. A meetup group I am in is still having events. We seem to be waiting for the numbers to grow to the point of causing a huge problem before we react at a personal level.

--

Rick C.

-+ Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
-+ Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

 

[Rick C]

On Monday, March 16, 2020 at 10:44:50 AM UTC-4, Tom Gardner wrote:

On 16/03/20 14:23, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:

What's also increasing exponentially is the availability of testing
kits.

In the US that wouldn't be difficult!

In the UK we are scaling back testing of people with cough
or fever in the community, reserving testing for those in
hospital.

And that is part of the problem. People don't universally end up in the hospital with this disease. They live their lives and infect others. Without widespread testing many don't know they are infected and the problem appears better than it really is.

If they lock down for a year, people will starve to death.

That's alarmist, and depends on what "lockdown" actually
consists of. "Lockdown" isn't binary; it is shades of grey.

You are talking to someone who is calling anyone concerned about this disease "alarmist". Do you really think they are going to pay any attention to what you say as opposed to what they hear?

The US press, and TV news, and internet, are hyperbolic on this. There
was Climate Change, then the Mueller/Russia thing, then impeachment,
now this. Single-subject hysterical monoculture.

Well, it does sell newspapers and adverts, so of course
the good capitalists will jump on board.

But that indicates /nothing/ about the seriousness of
the situation.

This thread was started with a link to an excellent web site. Of course the denialists are going to say the author is an alarmist even though he is clear in his reasoning and math. But then JL will acknowledge that math is not his strong suit. So instead he focuses on a sentence or two in the whole article trying to prove it all wrong.

This is a serious disease and the US is ill prepared to deal with it. I hope I am proven wrong, but so far not many here are acting like they understand the severity. Yes, drop interest rates. That will deal with the real problem!

--

Rick C.

++ Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
++ Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

 

[Rick C]

On Monday, March 16, 2020 at 12:16:26 PM UTC-4, legg wrote:

On Mon, 16 Mar 2020 07:16:49 -0700 (PDT),
bloggs.fredbloggs.fred@gmail.com wrote:

On Sunday, March 15, 2020 at 10:52:52 PM UTC-4, Winfield Hill wrote:
Coronavirus: Why You Must Act Now - Tomas Pueyo

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-
f4d3d9cd99ca


--
Thanks,
- Win

Hysterical nonsense - he's using the sitting duck theory wherein people are oblivious to the danger and go on about life as usual, and that's certainly NOT the case. The virus has been circulating in the U.S. since at least October, and any deaths have been attributed to influenza. Suddenly, when the test kit becomes available, people are dying of corona left and right.. Speaking of tests, someone needs to get on the ball and develop an ELISA for this virus. This testing methodology is about 10-25 % the cost of a PCR, the type they're now using, and it doesn't require a sophisticated lab to process the results. Sampling is a pin prick and they can really go to town assaying the entire population of the world if they want to. Singapore is about 90% of the way there but haven't developed anything scalable to commercial yet.

The US failure to produce effective test kits in volume is a disgrace.
CDC budget cuts occurred at roughly the same time as those to EPA etc.
New heads appointed at roughly the same time.

Space Force !

MAHA, Make America Healthy Again!

--

Rick C.

--+ Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
--+ Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

 

[legg]

On Mon, 16 Mar 2020 07:16:49 -0700 (PDT),
bloggs.fredbloggs.fred@gmail.com wrote:

On Sunday, March 15, 2020 at 10:52:52 PM UTC-4, Winfield Hill wrote:
Coronavirus: Why You Must Act Now - Tomas Pueyo

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-
f4d3d9cd99ca


--
Thanks,
- Win

Hysterical nonsense - he's using the sitting duck theory wherein people are oblivious to the danger and go on about life as usual, and that's certainly NOT the case. The virus has been circulating in the U.S. since at least October, and any deaths have been attributed to influenza. Suddenly, when the test kit becomes available, people are dying of corona left and right. Speaking of tests, someone needs to get on the ball and develop an ELISA for this virus. This testing methodology is about 10-25 % the cost of a PCR, the type they're now using, and it doesn't require a sophisticated lab to process the results. Sampling is a pin prick and they can really go to town assaying the entire population of the world if they want to. Singapore is about 90% of the way there but haven't developed anything scalable to commercial yet.

The US failure to produce effective test kits in volume is a disgrace.
CDC budget cuts occurred at roughly the same time as those to EPA etc.
New heads appointed at roughly the same time.

Space Force !

RL

 

[Rick C]

On Monday, March 16, 2020 at 11:42:44 AM UTC-4, Bob Engelhardt wrote:

On 3/16/2020 10:23 AM, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
...
The US press, and TV news, and internet, are hyperbolic on this. There
was Climate Change, then the Mueller/Russia thing, then impeachment,
now this. Single-subject hysterical monoculture.

Do you believe that the situation in Italy is just hyperbole? If you
accept that it's real, do you have any reason to think that the US will
be any different?

Of course we will be different. We're the US of A!

I seem to recall S Korea has some single event early on that spurred the infection widely. I don't know what happened in Italy to promote the infection rate quickly. But what is clear is that it will continue to grow at accelerating rates until a lock down is imposed. We aren't prepared to do that in most western countries until it is clearly required... meaning even people like Larkin see the writing on the wall.

So we will report on the toilet paper runs and the shortage of short bread. Meanwhile we aren't able to test enough people to really know the extent of the infection here which feeds into the problem of people believing in the need for drastic measures.

We were supposed to have millions of test kits available by today. Where are they?

--

Rick C.

--- Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
--- Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

 

[Martin Brown]

On 16/03/2020 15:42, Bob Engelhardt wrote:

On 3/16/2020 10:23 AM, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
...
The US press, and TV news, and internet, are hyperbolic on this. There
was Climate Change, then the Mueller/Russia thing, then impeachment,
now this. Single-subject hysterical monoculture.

Do you believe that the situation in Italy is just hyperbole? If you
accept that it's real, do you have any reason to think that the US will
be any different?

The UK and US median age is quite a bit lower than in Italy 45.5).
ISTR only Japan, Germany and Monaco rank higher than Italy on that.

UK median age 40.5 is ranked 50th USA median age 38.1 is ranked 61.

Since serious complications are much more common in the over 70's it is
reasonable to suppose that countries with a mostly younger population
will fare a little better in this respect. However, handled badly it
could easily go pear shaped if intensive care capability saturates.
(you need not only the kit but the staff and the PPE for them to use)

--
Regards,
Martin Brown

 

[Rick C]

On Monday, March 16, 2020 at 10:23:51 AM UTC-4, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:

The US press, and TV news, and internet, are hyperbolic on this. There
was Climate Change, then the Mueller/Russia thing, then impeachment,
now this. Single-subject hysterical monoculture.

Yes, in a pandemic situation where many people will die, what you want to focus on is the press. Yup, makes perfect sense. Kinda like worrying about the hand cleaner dispenser at Walmart.

One thing we have working for us in this pandemic, the Darwin effect. Unfortunately while this disease has the ability to remove people from the population, most of them have already reproduced.

--

Rick C.

+- Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
+- Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

 

[Tom Gardner]

On 16/03/20 16:04, Rick C wrote:

On Monday, March 16, 2020 at 10:44:50 AM UTC-4, Tom Gardner wrote:
On 16/03/20 14:23, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:

What's also increasing exponentially is the availability of testing
kits.

In the US that wouldn't be difficult!

In the UK we are scaling back testing of people with cough or fever in the
community, reserving testing for those in hospital.

And that is part of the problem. People don't universally end up in the
hospital with this disease. They live their lives and infect others.
Without widespread testing many don't know they are infected and the problem
appears better than it really is.

Agreed.

The counter-point would be that there's no point in testing
for something if the answer won't change subsequent actions.
Better to concentrate limited efforts where the effort might
change subsequent actions.

I don't like that, but it is rational.

If they lock down for a year, people will starve to death.

That's alarmist, and depends on what "lockdown" actually consists of.
"Lockdown" isn't binary; it is shades of grey.

You are talking to someone who is calling anyone concerned about this disease
"alarmist". Do you really think they are going to pay any attention to what
you say as opposed to what they hear?

The irony had not escaped me. That's why I used "alarmist"

The US press, and TV news, and internet, are hyperbolic on this. There
was Climate Change, then the Mueller/Russia thing, then impeachment, now
this. Single-subject hysterical monoculture.

Well, it does sell newspapers and adverts, so of course the good
capitalists will jump on board.

But that indicates /nothing/ about the seriousness of the situation.

This thread was started with a link to an excellent web site. Of course the
denialists are going to say the author is an alarmist even though he is clear
in his reasoning and math. But then JL will acknowledge that math is not his
strong suit. So instead he focuses on a sentence or two in the whole article
trying to prove it all wrong.

This is a serious disease and the US is ill prepared to deal with it. I hope
I am proven wrong, but so far not many here are acting like they understand
the severity. Yes, drop interest rates. That will deal with the real
problem!

Agreed.

 

[John Larkin]

On Mon, 16 Mar 2020 17:15:47 +0000, Tom Gardner
<spamjunk@blueyonder.co.uk> wrote:

On 16/03/20 16:04, Rick C wrote:
On Monday, March 16, 2020 at 10:44:50 AM UTC-4, Tom Gardner wrote:
On 16/03/20 14:23, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:

What's also increasing exponentially is the availability of testing
kits.

In the US that wouldn't be difficult!

In the UK we are scaling back testing of people with cough or fever in the
community, reserving testing for those in hospital.

And that is part of the problem. People don't universally end up in the
hospital with this disease. They live their lives and infect others.
Without widespread testing many don't know they are infected and the problem
appears better than it really is.

Agreed.

The counter-point would be that there's no point in testing
for something if the answer won't change subsequent actions.
Better to concentrate limited efforts where the effort might
change subsequent actions.

I don't like that, but it is rational.


If they lock down for a year, people will starve to death.

That's alarmist, and depends on what "lockdown" actually consists of.
"Lockdown" isn't binary; it is shades of grey.

You are talking to someone who is calling anyone concerned about this disease
"alarmist". Do you really think they are going to pay any attention to what
you say as opposed to what they hear?

The irony had not escaped me. That's why I used "alarmist"

You used that term. I didn't.

--

John Larkin Highland Technology, Inc
picosecond timing precision measurement

jlarkin att highlandtechnology dott com
http://www.highlandtechnology.com