Saturday Night Fight

[Martin Brown]

On 08/04/2020 00:58, John Larkin wrote:

On Tue, 7 Apr 2020 16:31:54 -0700 (PDT), Michael Terrell
terrell.michael.a@gmail.com> wrote:

On Tuesday, April 7, 2020 at 2:11:48 PM UTC-4, John Larkin wrote:
On Tue, 7 Apr 2020 02:37:36 -0700 (PDT), whit3rd wrote:

On Monday, April 6, 2020 at 1:23:05 PM UTC-7, John Larkin wrote:

We need to find them first. Try things. In parallel.

That's called epidemiology, and the starting point is medical records.
The Mayo Clinic became a world leader by keeping good, consistent records.
Consistency IS a problem, China presumably has a better system than the US
patchwork of latest-and-greatest-softwares. A very large healthcare
system in the US is the Veterans Administration; that's something
they would be good at.

So, building up a body of records certainly IS being done, you just
don't hear about it because (1) the records are confidential and (2)
no great results yet, so it's mainly 'maybe-someday'.

Ultimately we need vaccines and antibodies, but they would take time
to get into production once they work.

Thus the lockdown; to get the time.

Some expert on the radio this morning (heard while driving to work)
said that we can gradually relax the lockdown over the next year or
year-and-a-half when a vaccine is available.

As if no cold or flu ever went away without a vaccine.

As if nobody would starve to death.


A reporter for EWTN wants to know why our president hasn't shut down all supermarkets and fast food places.

EWTN is owed and operated by the Catholic church.


Here's another one.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2020/04/07/ezekiel_emanuel_us_must_stay_locked_down_for_12-18_months_until_theres_a_vaccine.html

Sound like he expects it to keep killing people forever without a
vaccine. That's a common opinion.

There is no reason to suppose it won't - at least until it has killed
about 3% of the population. Mostly the elderly and those with
pre-existing medical conditions but around 10-20% of otherwise healthy
adults who are just unlucky or medics working with Covid-19 infections
put in harms way without adequate supplies of the right PPE.

Our own Prime Minister is one such high profile victim of this virus.

Looks to me like most of the world has peaked or is getting close.
Some european countries have daily new case rates a small fraction of
peak. The ones that started sooner are falling fastest.

The only ones that have peaked so far are Italy and Spain which are in
near total lockdown. UK is just increasing linearly now rather than
exponentially as we wait for lockdown to take effect on transmission.
New confirmed cases are down a bit but testing is still so haphazard
that it is not possible to read much into that.

Yesterday was still a record high for UK reported Covid-19 deaths.

The basic curve may be a 4-6 week Gaussian, smeared out in bigger
countries that have multiple infection centers. These things tend to
have steeper tails than rises.

Rubbish.

The virus is capable of ripping through the entire population until at
least 60% have had it. There is no population immunity to this novel
virus. The roughly 80% who are asymptomatic can infect the vulnerable
20%. And 10% of them require hospital treatment if they are to survive.

That is the whole rationale for social distancing and lockdown. You can
argue (and I would agree) that the extent of lockdown and the economic
damage it will do is out of proportion to the actual threat. I fear we
will kill many more people in future due to a global economic slump that
makes the Great Depression look like a picnic to save some lives today.

Left unchecked Covid-19 would probably kill 3-5% of the global
population - which may still happen anyway if we fail to find a vaccine.

Luxembourg is a small country right in the center of Europe. It has a
half-sine looking curve, down about 5:1 from peak.

Cherry picking again! I don't see Luxembourg in the FT dataset which is
one of the most extensive sets of charts in the public domain:

https://www.ft.com/coronavirus-latest

--
Regards,
Martin Brown

 

On Wed, 8 Apr 2020 10:39:02 +0100, Martin Brown
<'''newspam'''@nezumi.demon.co.uk> wrote:

On 08/04/2020 00:58, John Larkin wrote:
On Tue, 7 Apr 2020 16:31:54 -0700 (PDT), Michael Terrell
terrell.michael.a@gmail.com> wrote:

On Tuesday, April 7, 2020 at 2:11:48 PM UTC-4, John Larkin wrote:
On Tue, 7 Apr 2020 02:37:36 -0700 (PDT), whit3rd wrote:

On Monday, April 6, 2020 at 1:23:05 PM UTC-7, John Larkin wrote:

We need to find them first. Try things. In parallel.

That's called epidemiology, and the starting point is medical records.
The Mayo Clinic became a world leader by keeping good, consistent records.
Consistency IS a problem, China presumably has a better system than the US
patchwork of latest-and-greatest-softwares. A very large healthcare
system in the US is the Veterans Administration; that's something
they would be good at.

So, building up a body of records certainly IS being done, you just
don't hear about it because (1) the records are confidential and (2)
no great results yet, so it's mainly 'maybe-someday'.

Ultimately we need vaccines and antibodies, but they would take time
to get into production once they work.

Thus the lockdown; to get the time.

Some expert on the radio this morning (heard while driving to work)
said that we can gradually relax the lockdown over the next year or
year-and-a-half when a vaccine is available.

As if no cold or flu ever went away without a vaccine.

As if nobody would starve to death.


A reporter for EWTN wants to know why our president hasn't shut down all supermarkets and fast food places.

EWTN is owed and operated by the Catholic church.


Here's another one.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2020/04/07/ezekiel_emanuel_us_must_stay_locked_down_for_12-18_months_until_theres_a_vaccine.html

Sound like he expects it to keep killing people forever without a
vaccine. That's a common opinion.

There is no reason to suppose it won't - at least until it has killed
about 3% of the population. Mostly the elderly and those with
pre-existing medical conditions but around 10-20% of otherwise healthy
adults who are just unlucky or medics working with Covid-19 infections
put in harms way without adequate supplies of the right PPE.

Our own Prime Minister is one such high profile victim of this virus.
Looks to me like most of the world has peaked or is getting close.
Some european countries have daily new case rates a small fraction of
peak. The ones that started sooner are falling fastest.

The only ones that have peaked so far are Italy and Spain which are in
near total lockdown. UK is just increasing linearly now rather than
exponentially as we wait for lockdown to take effect on transmission.
New confirmed cases are down a bit but testing is still so haphazard
that it is not possible to read much into that.

Yesterday was still a record high for UK reported Covid-19 deaths.

The basic curve may be a 4-6 week Gaussian, smeared out in bigger
countries that have multiple infection centers. These things tend to
have steeper tails than rises.

Rubbish.

The Hopkins site shows world peak new cases 4 days ago. UK three days
ago. US, 4. Spain and Italy and Switzerland, 2 or three weeks ago.

Check it out.

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html


I know it must be almost over because NPR radio has switched away from
100% coronavirus coverage. They have, in desperation, reverted back to
Climate Crisis until they can find a new issue to shriek about.

The virus is capable of ripping through the entire population until at
least 60% have had it. There is no population immunity to this novel
virus.

Everyone says that but I doubt it. Humans evolution has battled
coronaviruse evolution for centuries. It looks like people of european
descent are less suceptable to catching it than those of African
descent. Maybe it's "our" virus.

The roughly 80% who are asymptomatic can infect the vulnerable
20%. And 10% of them require hospital treatment if they are to survive.

That is the whole rationale for social distancing and lockdown. You can
argue (and I would agree) that the extent of lockdown and the economic
damage it will do is out of proportion to the actual threat. I fear we
will kill many more people in future due to a global economic slump that
makes the Great Depression look like a picnic to save some lives today.

The public rationale for lockdown isn't to reduce cases but to spread
out the hump so hospitals are not overloaded. Except in a few hot
spots, hospitals are mostly empty now.

One hospital here emergency re-built a wing for coronavirus. There are
isolated rooms, staff all suited up like astronauts, ventilators
lining hallways. Ordinary medical care is not available. They have 48
beds for corona patients. Nine beds are occupied, seven of those
confirmed or suspected corona cases.

Gov Cuomo says there are “more than enough available” hospital beds in
New York. And admissions are declining.



--

John Larkin Highland Technology, Inc

Science teaches us to doubt.

Claude Bernard

 

[Bill Sloman]

On Thursday, April 9, 2020 at 12:55:23 AM UTC+10, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:

On Wed, 8 Apr 2020 10:39:02 +0100, Martin Brown
'''newspam'''@nezumi.demon.co.uk> wrote:

On 08/04/2020 00:58, John Larkin wrote:
On Tue, 7 Apr 2020 16:31:54 -0700 (PDT), Michael Terrell
terrell.michael.a@gmail.com> wrote:

On Tuesday, April 7, 2020 at 2:11:48 PM UTC-4, John Larkin wrote:
On Tue, 7 Apr 2020 02:37:36 -0700 (PDT), whit3rd wrote:

On Monday, April 6, 2020 at 1:23:05 PM UTC-7, John Larkin wrote:

The Hopkins site shows world peak new cases 4 days ago. UK three days
ago. US, 4. Spain and Italy and Switzerland, 2 or three weeks ago.

Check it out.

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

The daily new case numbers may have levelled off, but it is a bit early to say that they've peaked. Italy's new cases per day peaked at 6557 on the 21st March, and got down to 3039 on the 7th April, but that's a lot of new infections.

The USA gives even less grounds for optimism.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I know it must be almost over because NPR radio has switched away from
100% coronavirus coverage. They have, in desperation, reverted back to
Climate Crisis until they can find a new issue to shriek about.

People get bored with any single issue. No rational observer would say that it was over yet, or even getting close.

The virus is capable of ripping through the entire population until at
least 60% have had it. There is no population immunity to this novel
virus.

Everyone says that but I doubt it.

That's because you don't know much.

> Humans evolution has battled coronavirus evolution for centuries.

This one seems to have a least one new trick which slows down our immune system response. SARS and MERS were also coronavirus variants - deadlier, but less infectious. Human evolution didn't help much with them.

It looks like people of european
descent are less suceptable to catching it than those of African
descent. Maybe it's "our" virus.

Do try to learn how to spell susceptible. Once you've managed that, try to train yourself out of half-witted racism.

The roughly 80% who are asymptomatic can infect the vulnerable
20%. And 10% of them require hospital treatment if they are to survive.

That is the whole rationale for social distancing and lockdown. You can
argue (and I would agree) that the extent of lockdown and the economic
damage it will do is out of proportion to the actual threat. I fear we
will kill many more people in future due to a global economic slump that
makes the Great Depression look like a picnic to save some lives today.

The public rationale for lockdown isn't to reduce cases but to spread
out the hump so hospitals are not overloaded. Except in a few hot
spots, hospitals are mostly empty now.

That's a safer claim. Sufficiently rigorous lock-down stops people getting infected at all, and - if kept up at that level for long enough - leaves you with no infected people in the locked-down area.

South Korea has done even better with contact tracing and isolating everybody who might have got infected. They've held their infected number down to 203 per million population. Australia is at 236.

One hospital here emergency re-built a wing for coronavirus. There are
isolated rooms, staff all suited up like astronauts, ventilators
lining hallways. Ordinary medical care is not available. They have 48
beds for corona patients. Nine beds are occupied, seven of those
confirmed or suspected corona cases.

Gov Cuomo says there are “more than enough available” hospital beds in
New York. And admissions are declining.

But the US has now 1221 people infected per million population, and the new cases per day rate may have levelled off, but it isn't actually declining yet.

Idiot politicians will say anything to try and reassure the population.

Active cases in the US are still rising linearly.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

 

On Tue, 7 Apr 2020 23:43:45 -0400, "Tom Del Rosso"
<fizzbintuesday@that-google-mail-domain.com> wrote:

John Larkin wrote:

Some expert on the radio this morning (heard while driving to work)
said that we can gradually relax the lockdown over the next year or
year-and-a-half when a vaccine is available.

As if no cold or flu ever went away without a vaccine.

As if nobody would starve to death.

Or become homeless. In 1918 the economy wasn't hurt at all because there
was no lockdown. Just a lot of dead people. There is a sensible middle
ground but it's a lot less than a year.

After a few months of this we will probably start hearing of increased
suicide and drug use, and maybe violence from drinking. Maybe a large
number of people will demand to go back to work before that point, but
more likely after that point.

My engineers are working from home. My production people are being
paid, but want to come in to work. We have documents that declare us
to be critical, so it's legal to restart manufacturing. We might
arrange for two shifts and a lot of distancing and sanitizing. We are
being pressured by defense and semiconductor customers to keep
shipping. Some are close to hysterical. That's sort of fun, to be so
important.

Some people would rather come to work than stay at home, even if they
are paid.




--

John Larkin Highland Technology, Inc

Science teaches us to doubt.

Claude Bernard

 

[Martin Brown]

On 08/04/2020 15:55, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:

On Wed, 8 Apr 2020 10:39:02 +0100, Martin Brown
'''newspam'''@nezumi.demon.co.uk> wrote:

On 08/04/2020 00:58, John Larkin wrote:
On Tue, 7 Apr 2020 16:31:54 -0700 (PDT), Michael Terrell
terrell.michael.a@gmail.com> wrote:

On Tuesday, April 7, 2020 at 2:11:48 PM UTC-4, John Larkin wrote:
On Tue, 7 Apr 2020 02:37:36 -0700 (PDT), whit3rd wrote:

On Monday, April 6, 2020 at 1:23:05 PM UTC-7, John Larkin wrote:

We need to find them first. Try things. In parallel.

That's called epidemiology, and the starting point is medical records.
The Mayo Clinic became a world leader by keeping good, consistent records.
Consistency IS a problem, China presumably has a better system than the US
patchwork of latest-and-greatest-softwares. A very large healthcare
system in the US is the Veterans Administration; that's something
they would be good at.

So, building up a body of records certainly IS being done, you just
don't hear about it because (1) the records are confidential and (2)
no great results yet, so it's mainly 'maybe-someday'.

Ultimately we need vaccines and antibodies, but they would take time
to get into production once they work.

Thus the lockdown; to get the time.

Some expert on the radio this morning (heard while driving to work)
said that we can gradually relax the lockdown over the next year or
year-and-a-half when a vaccine is available.

As if no cold or flu ever went away without a vaccine.

As if nobody would starve to death.


A reporter for EWTN wants to know why our president hasn't shut down all supermarkets and fast food places.

EWTN is owed and operated by the Catholic church.


Here's another one.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2020/04/07/ezekiel_emanuel_us_must_stay_locked_down_for_12-18_months_until_theres_a_vaccine.html

Sound like he expects it to keep killing people forever without a
vaccine. That's a common opinion.

There is no reason to suppose it won't - at least until it has killed
about 3% of the population. Mostly the elderly and those with
pre-existing medical conditions but around 10-20% of otherwise healthy
adults who are just unlucky or medics working with Covid-19 infections
put in harms way without adequate supplies of the right PPE.

Our own Prime Minister is one such high profile victim of this virus.
Looks to me like most of the world has peaked or is getting close.
Some european countries have daily new case rates a small fraction of
peak. The ones that started sooner are falling fastest.

The only ones that have peaked so far are Italy and Spain which are in
near total lockdown. UK is just increasing linearly now rather than
exponentially as we wait for lockdown to take effect on transmission.
New confirmed cases are down a bit but testing is still so haphazard
that it is not possible to read much into that.

Yesterday was still a record high for UK reported Covid-19 deaths.

The basic curve may be a 4-6 week Gaussian, smeared out in bigger
countries that have multiple infection centers. These things tend to
have steeper tails than rises.

Rubbish.

The Hopkins site shows world peak new cases 4 days ago. UK three days
ago. US, 4. Spain and Italy and Switzerland, 2 or three weeks ago.

Check it out.

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

New *confirmed* cases perhaps and only due to sampling noise, but UK is
still having large numbers of cases that are never tested for the virus.
You only get tested if you are admitted to hospital with suspected
Covid-19. The daily death toll today is the worst ever at 936.

The rate of increase has slowed to linear rather than exponential but a
sum of constant daily numbers also gets you to infinity just not quite
as quickly as exponential growth would.

I know it must be almost over because NPR radio has switched away from
100% coronavirus coverage. They have, in desperation, reverted back to
Climate Crisis until they can find a new issue to shriek about.

You are paranoid and delusional in equal measure.

The virus is capable of ripping through the entire population until at
least 60% have had it. There is no population immunity to this novel
virus.

Everyone says that but I doubt it. Humans evolution has battled
coronaviruse evolution for centuries. It looks like people of european
descent are less suceptable to catching it than those of African
descent. Maybe it's "our" virus.

There is no evidence at all for that. My friend caught it and you would
be hard pressed to find anyone with fairer hair. Likewise for Boris.

There is evidence that being male and over 50 is bad for you, having
blood group A is slightly worse and blood group O is slightly safer.

Having pre-existing health conditions like obesity, diabetes and
hypertension are all factors that significantly affect outcomes. The
majority of fatalities are in the people with underlying health
conditions but by no means all. Medics seem to be particularly at risk
of getting a lethal dose at present.

The roughly 80% who are asymptomatic can infect the vulnerable
20%. And 10% of them require hospital treatment if they are to survive.

That is the whole rationale for social distancing and lockdown. You can
argue (and I would agree) that the extent of lockdown and the economic
damage it will do is out of proportion to the actual threat. I fear we
will kill many more people in future due to a global economic slump that
makes the Great Depression look like a picnic to save some lives today.

The public rationale for lockdown isn't to reduce cases but to spread
out the hump so hospitals are not overloaded. Except in a few hot
spots, hospitals are mostly empty now.

It is to reduce the peak load on the health system. It also reduces the
number of cases as the area under the curve. This leaves an opportunity
for the virus to resurge once we ease off on containment measures.

One hospital here emergency re-built a wing for coronavirus. There are
isolated rooms, staff all suited up like astronauts, ventilators
lining hallways. Ordinary medical care is not available. They have 48
beds for corona patients. Nine beds are occupied, seven of those
confirmed or suspected corona cases.

Gov Cuomo says there are “more than enough available” hospital beds in
New York. And admissions are declining.

You really love alternative facts don't you.

--
Regards,
Martin Brown

 

On Wed, 8 Apr 2020 17:27:54 +0100, Martin Brown
<'''newspam'''@nezumi.demon.co.uk> wrote:

On 08/04/2020 15:55, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Wed, 8 Apr 2020 10:39:02 +0100, Martin Brown
'''newspam'''@nezumi.demon.co.uk> wrote:

On 08/04/2020 00:58, John Larkin wrote:
On Tue, 7 Apr 2020 16:31:54 -0700 (PDT), Michael Terrell
terrell.michael.a@gmail.com> wrote:

On Tuesday, April 7, 2020 at 2:11:48 PM UTC-4, John Larkin wrote:
On Tue, 7 Apr 2020 02:37:36 -0700 (PDT), whit3rd wrote:

On Monday, April 6, 2020 at 1:23:05 PM UTC-7, John Larkin wrote:

We need to find them first. Try things. In parallel.

That's called epidemiology, and the starting point is medical records.
The Mayo Clinic became a world leader by keeping good, consistent records.
Consistency IS a problem, China presumably has a better system than the US
patchwork of latest-and-greatest-softwares. A very large healthcare
system in the US is the Veterans Administration; that's something
they would be good at.

So, building up a body of records certainly IS being done, you just
don't hear about it because (1) the records are confidential and (2)
no great results yet, so it's mainly 'maybe-someday'.

Ultimately we need vaccines and antibodies, but they would take time
to get into production once they work.

Thus the lockdown; to get the time.

Some expert on the radio this morning (heard while driving to work)
said that we can gradually relax the lockdown over the next year or
year-and-a-half when a vaccine is available.

As if no cold or flu ever went away without a vaccine.

As if nobody would starve to death.


A reporter for EWTN wants to know why our president hasn't shut down all supermarkets and fast food places.

EWTN is owed and operated by the Catholic church.


Here's another one.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2020/04/07/ezekiel_emanuel_us_must_stay_locked_down_for_12-18_months_until_theres_a_vaccine.html

Sound like he expects it to keep killing people forever without a
vaccine. That's a common opinion.

There is no reason to suppose it won't - at least until it has killed
about 3% of the population. Mostly the elderly and those with
pre-existing medical conditions but around 10-20% of otherwise healthy
adults who are just unlucky or medics working with Covid-19 infections
put in harms way without adequate supplies of the right PPE.

Our own Prime Minister is one such high profile victim of this virus.
Looks to me like most of the world has peaked or is getting close.
Some european countries have daily new case rates a small fraction of
peak. The ones that started sooner are falling fastest.

The only ones that have peaked so far are Italy and Spain which are in
near total lockdown. UK is just increasing linearly now rather than
exponentially as we wait for lockdown to take effect on transmission.
New confirmed cases are down a bit but testing is still so haphazard
that it is not possible to read much into that.

Yesterday was still a record high for UK reported Covid-19 deaths.

The basic curve may be a 4-6 week Gaussian, smeared out in bigger
countries that have multiple infection centers. These things tend to
have steeper tails than rises.

Rubbish.

The Hopkins site shows world peak new cases 4 days ago. UK three days
ago. US, 4. Spain and Italy and Switzerland, 2 or three weeks ago.

Check it out.

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

New *confirmed* cases perhaps and only due to sampling noise, but UK is
still having large numbers of cases that are never tested for the virus.
You only get tested if you are admitted to hospital with suspected
Covid-19. The daily death toll today is the worst ever at 936.

The rate of increase has slowed to linear rather than exponential but a
sum of constant daily numbers also gets you to infinity just not quite
as quickly as exponential growth would.

What has gone up exponentially is test production.

https://news.trust.org/item/20200408103237-l2epf

"French coronavirus testing capacity has risen from 3,000 per day in
mid-March to 30,000 on a daily basis now, and will rise to
100,000-250,000 per day in about two weeks, he said."

Don't you think that affects measurements?

One possibility is that the actual infection rate is tailing down but
the measurement gain is going up much faster.

I know it must be almost over because NPR radio has switched away from
100% coronavirus coverage. They have, in desperation, reverted back to
Climate Crisis until they can find a new issue to shriek about.

You are paranoid and delusional in equal measure.

For *considering* possibilities in a very noisy measurement
environment? You are not invited to any of our brainstorming sessions;
you'd poison creativity.

NPR *has* switched away from 100% virus coverage. As have the
newspapers.

The virus is capable of ripping through the entire population until at
least 60% have had it. There is no population immunity to this novel
virus.

Everyone says that but I doubt it. Humans evolution has battled
coronaviruse evolution for centuries. It looks like people of european
descent are less suceptable to catching it than those of African
descent. Maybe it's "our" virus.

There is no evidence at all for that. My friend caught it and you would
be hard pressed to find anyone with fairer hair. Likewise for Boris.

There is evidence that being male and over 50 is bad for you, having
blood group A is slightly worse and blood group O is slightly safer.

So there are selective immunities. There have to be.

Having pre-existing health conditions like obesity, diabetes and
hypertension are all factors that significantly affect outcomes. The
majority of fatalities are in the people with underlying health
conditions but by no means all. Medics seem to be particularly at risk
of getting a lethal dose at present.

The roughly 80% who are asymptomatic can infect the vulnerable
20%. And 10% of them require hospital treatment if they are to survive.

That is the whole rationale for social distancing and lockdown. You can
argue (and I would agree) that the extent of lockdown and the economic
damage it will do is out of proportion to the actual threat. I fear we
will kill many more people in future due to a global economic slump that
makes the Great Depression look like a picnic to save some lives today.

The public rationale for lockdown isn't to reduce cases but to spread
out the hump so hospitals are not overloaded. Except in a few hot
spots, hospitals are mostly empty now.

It is to reduce the peak load on the health system. It also reduces the
number of cases as the area under the curve. This leaves an opportunity
for the virus to resurge once we ease off on containment measures.

One hospital here emergency re-built a wing for coronavirus. There are
isolated rooms, staff all suited up like astronauts, ventilators
lining hallways. Ordinary medical care is not available. They have 48
beds for corona patients. Nine beds are occupied, seven of those
confirmed or suspected corona cases.

Gov Cuomo says there are “more than enough available” hospital beds in
New York. And admissions are declining.

You really love alternative facts don't you.

Yes. I'm a design engineer, not a herd animal.








--

John Larkin Highland Technology, Inc

Science teaches us to doubt.

Claude Bernard

 

[Ricky C]

On Wednesday, April 8, 2020 at 11:36:09 AM UTC-4, Bill Sloman wrote:

But the US has now 1221 people infected per million population, and the new cases per day rate may have levelled off, but it isn't actually declining yet.

Idiot politicians will say anything to try and reassure the population.

Active cases in the US are still rising linearly.

It is premature to say new cases per day have leveled off in the US. We had a one day drop and now the numbers are still rising exponentially with a doubling period of 8 days. We'll see what happens with the numbers over the next couple of days.

Even so, the reduction in the infection rate only shows that the measures taken are working, even if a bit belatedly.

While Chinese central government was able to dictate measures to every part of the country, we can't do that here. The federal government doesn't have that authority until it becomes a matter of national security. I expect they would need to invoke a measure intended for war time such as martial law and I don't know what the regulations for that are. Anyway, that's not going to happen. As a result there will be parts of the country that act as reservoirs for this infection for a long time to come resulting in infection rates rising and falling over and over.

China and South Korea have managed to get the number of new cases down to double digits while our daily death count is higher than their new infections.

The US just doesn't seem to have the will to fight this disease in an effective way. So instead of looking at what we could do better, we blame this disease on a country and say it is all their fault. We have enough truly stupid voters in this country to continue electing people to high office who are happy to use this sort of situation for personal gain.

--

Rick C.

+-- Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
+-- Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

 

[Bill Sloman]

On Thursday, April 9, 2020 at 3:37:34 AM UTC+10, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:

On Wed, 8 Apr 2020 17:27:54 +0100, Martin Brown
'''newspam'''@nezumi.demon.co.uk> wrote:
On 08/04/2020 15:55, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Wed, 8 Apr 2020 10:39:02 +0100, Martin Brown
'''newspam'''@nezumi.demon.co.uk> wrote:
On 08/04/2020 00:58, John Larkin wrote:
On Tue, 7 Apr 2020 16:31:54 -0700 (PDT), Michael Terrell
terrell.michael.a@gmail.com> wrote:
On Tuesday, April 7, 2020 at 2:11:48 PM UTC-4, John Larkin wrote:
On Tue, 7 Apr 2020 02:37:36 -0700 (PDT), whit3rd wrote:
On Monday, April 6, 2020 at 1:23:05 PM UTC-7, John Larkin wrote:

<snip>

Gov Cuomo says there are “more than enough available” hospital beds in
New York. And admissions are declining.

You really love alternative facts don't you.

Yes. I'm a design engineer, not a herd animal.

John Larkin's claim to be a design engineer does seem to be an alternative fact.

And the fact that he approves of Donald Trump makes him a member of a remarkably gullible herd.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

 

[Jasen Betts]

On 2020-04-08, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com <jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com> wrote:

The Hopkins site shows world peak new cases 4 days ago. UK three days
ago. US, 4. Spain and Italy and Switzerland, 2 or three weeks ago.

Check it out.

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

there's the same brief dip every week-end.



--
Jasen.

 

[Ricky C]

On Thursday, April 9, 2020 at 6:32:56 AM UTC-4, Jasen Betts wrote:

On 2020-04-08, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com <jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com> wrote:

The Hopkins site shows world peak new cases 4 days ago. UK three days
ago. US, 4. Spain and Italy and Switzerland, 2 or three weeks ago.

Check it out.

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

there's the same brief dip every week-end.

The worldometer site shows 4/8 numbers and the number of new cases seems to have leveled off at this point. So it appears the various lock downs seem to have had an impact.

We'll see if the fact that they are working means people will continue to follow the orders or if they will stupidly think this is good enough and start going out again.

I read that several states are talking about allowing large church gatherings for Easter. If they do, it will be a slam dunk to see a spike in new infection numbers a week later.

--

Rick C.

+-+ Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
+-+ Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

 

On Thu, 9 Apr 2020 10:26:34 -0000 (UTC), Jasen Betts
<jasen@xnet.co.nz> wrote:

On 2020-04-08, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com <jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com> wrote:

The Hopkins site shows world peak new cases 4 days ago. UK three days
ago. US, 4. Spain and Italy and Switzerland, 2 or three weeks ago.

Check it out.

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

there's the same brief dip every week-end.

There are also big spikes all around the world simultaneously.
Especially around the end of each month.

The data is sufficiently noisy that it's hard to spot the trends.
Clickable lowpass filters would be nice.

Some small-country and cruise-ship curves are at least consistant with
a 4-6 week Gaussian (1918-style) impulse, but the noise and probable
measurement errors could be deceiving. Lockdowns will distort the
natural curve too.






--

John Larkin Highland Technology, Inc

Science teaches us to doubt.

Claude Bernard

 

[Phil Hobbs]

On 2020-04-09 11:10, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:

On Thu, 9 Apr 2020 10:26:34 -0000 (UTC), Jasen Betts
jasen@xnet.co.nz> wrote:

On 2020-04-08, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com
jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com> wrote:

The Hopkins site shows world peak new cases 4 days ago. UK three
days ago. US, 4. Spain and Italy and Switzerland, 2 or three
weeks ago.

Check it out.

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

there's the same brief dip every week-end.

There are also big spikes all around the world simultaneously.
Especially around the end of each month.

The data is sufficiently noisy that it's hard to spot the trends.
Clickable lowpass filters would be nice.

https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus

It's even open-source.

Some small-country and cruise-ship curves are at least consistant
with a 4-6 week Gaussian (1918-style) impulse, but the noise and
probable measurement errors could be deceiving. Lockdowns will
distort the natural curve too.

Cheers

Phil Hobbs

--
Dr Philip C D Hobbs
Principal Consultant
ElectroOptical Innovations LLC / Hobbs ElectroOptics
Optics, Electro-optics, Photonics, Analog Electronics
Briarcliff Manor NY 10510

http://electrooptical.net
http://hobbs-eo.com

 

On Thu, 9 Apr 2020 11:27:07 -0400, Phil Hobbs
<pcdhSpamMeSenseless@electrooptical.net> wrote:

On 2020-04-09 11:10, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Thu, 9 Apr 2020 10:26:34 -0000 (UTC), Jasen Betts
jasen@xnet.co.nz> wrote:

On 2020-04-08, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com
jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com> wrote:

The Hopkins site shows world peak new cases 4 days ago. UK three
days ago. US, 4. Spain and Italy and Switzerland, 2 or three
weeks ago.

Check it out.

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

there's the same brief dip every week-end.

There are also big spikes all around the world simultaneously.
Especially around the end of each month.

The data is sufficiently noisy that it's hard to spot the trends.
Clickable lowpass filters would be nice.


https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus

It's even open-source.

Some small-country and cruise-ship curves are at least consistant
with a 4-6 week Gaussian (1918-style) impulse, but the noise and
probable measurement errors could be deceiving. Lockdowns will
distort the natural curve too.


Cheers

Phil Hobbs

That's the first time I've seen "total tests" and "total tests per
thousand people."

We should adjust "confirmed cases" by test density. The US went from
0/1000 in early March to about 7/1000 now.

Lotta bad data.

If the official confirmed case count in the USA is now 430K, and 7 per
thousand have been tested, the crude calculation says that 61 million
people have had it. Probably less, since we preferentially test
suspected cases.









--

John Larkin Highland Technology, Inc

Science teaches us to doubt.

Claude Bernard

 

[Phil Hobbs]

On 2020-04-09 12:56, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:

On Thu, 9 Apr 2020 11:27:07 -0400, Phil Hobbs
pcdhSpamMeSenseless@electrooptical.net> wrote:

On 2020-04-09 11:10, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Thu, 9 Apr 2020 10:26:34 -0000 (UTC), Jasen Betts
jasen@xnet.co.nz> wrote:

On 2020-04-08, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com
jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com> wrote:

The Hopkins site shows world peak new cases 4 days ago. UK three
days ago. US, 4. Spain and Italy and Switzerland, 2 or three
weeks ago.

Check it out.

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

there's the same brief dip every week-end.

There are also big spikes all around the world simultaneously.
Especially around the end of each month.

The data is sufficiently noisy that it's hard to spot the trends.
Clickable lowpass filters would be nice.


https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus

It's even open-source.

Some small-country and cruise-ship curves are at least consistant
with a 4-6 week Gaussian (1918-style) impulse, but the noise and
probable measurement errors could be deceiving. Lockdowns will
distort the natural curve too.


Cheers

Phil Hobbs

That's the first time I've seen "total tests" and "total tests per
thousand people."

We should adjust "confirmed cases" by test density. The US went from
0/1000 in early March to about 7/1000 now.

Lotta bad data.

If the official confirmed case count in the USA is now 430K, and 7 per
thousand have been tested, the crude calculation says that 61 million
people have had it. Probably less, since we preferentially test
suspected cases.

I got tested today. It'll be interesting to see how it comes out--Mo
and I have been very circumspect for 3 weeks now.

Cheers

Phil Hobbs

--
Dr Philip C D Hobbs
Principal Consultant
ElectroOptical Innovations LLC / Hobbs ElectroOptics
Optics, Electro-optics, Photonics, Analog Electronics
Briarcliff Manor NY 10510

http://electrooptical.net
http://hobbs-eo.com

 

[whit3rd]

On Thursday, April 9, 2020 at 9:56:53 AM UTC-7, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:

We should adjust "confirmed cases" by test density. The US went from
0/1000 in early March to about 7/1000 now.

Lotta bad data.

So, why track it, if it's "bad"?

Even only tracking the cases that take hospital care, is some information,
a lower limit to real infections. I'd think, though, that we don't need daily updates;
whatever our actions, there's gotta be a logic margin (it'll have to gat a LOT better
before we open all the closures).

 

On Fri, 10 Apr 2020 01:45:12 -0700 (PDT), whit3rd <whit3rd@gmail.com>
wrote:

On Thursday, April 9, 2020 at 9:56:53 AM UTC-7, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:

We should adjust "confirmed cases" by test density. The US went from
0/1000 in early March to about 7/1000 now.

Lotta bad data.

So, why track it, if it's "bad"?

Even only tracking the cases that take hospital care, is some information,
a lower limit to real infections. I'd think, though, that we don't need daily updates;
whatever our actions, there's gotta be a logic margin (it'll have to gat a LOT better
before we open all the closures).

Turns out the case statistics also include suspected coronavirus
cases. Bad data is even worse, if that's possible.



--

John Larkin Highland Technology, Inc

Science teaches us to doubt.

Claude Bernard

 

[bitrex]

On 4/7/2020 6:28 PM, Clive Arthur wrote:

On 06/04/2020 10:58, Tom Gardner wrote:

snipped

Hydroxychloroquine might have the same benefits as the
Patriot missiles did in the Gulf war.

Yes, I remember that, when pressed about the claimed number of
interceptions, a military spokesman eventually admitted that
'interception' meant 'passed in the air'.

The Scuds were at the limit of their range and on the high parabolic
minimum-energy trajectory tended to come in so fast they sometimes broke
into pieces before intercept; ad-hoc decoys

 

[Bill Sloman]

On Saturday, April 11, 2020 at 1:09:26 AM UTC+10, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:

On Fri, 10 Apr 2020 01:45:12 -0700 (PDT), whit3rd <whit3rd@gmail.com
wrote:

On Thursday, April 9, 2020 at 9:56:53 AM UTC-7, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:

<snip>

Turns out the case statistics also include suspected coronavirus
cases. Bad data is even worse, if that's possible.

John Larkin throws in bad interpretation, and that certainly makes it even worse. Imperfect data, imperfectly understood takes you to Donald Trump's press
conferences, which may be worse yet.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney