Past the peak, now what?

[Ricky C]

On Tuesday, April 7, 2020 at 8:40:43 PM UTC-4, Lasse Langwadt Christensen wrote:

tirsdag den 7. april 2020 kl. 22.03.28 UTC+2 skrev Ricky C:

Yeah, this hits a few very, very hard. I guess I'll be tipping extra when this is over.


over?

https://youtu.be/hIbgY1n5bDo?t=3029

I'm not so sure there won't be an "over" and we move past it. I'm sure some things will not return. I've always wondered about a few things we do that help to spread disease, but it's never been practical (or we just haven't been motivated)_to do anything about it.

The problem is there won't be a single point when it's all "over". As the infection levels drop we will resume some activities. Since we are very highly motivated to resume the economy, I'm sure it won't be like the Asian countries that resume activities and see very little infection returning. I expect we will resume too many activities too soon and infection rates will rise.

The question is do we have the will to do the lock down drill again or will we say, "fuck it, let them die!"?

In my opinion the second wave of infections will rise within two months after we resume eating in restaurants and gathering in large groups like concerts... or two weeks after people return to sailing on cruise ships.

Sooo... maybe August? In any event it will be before November and will be the big issue in the election. The economy will be a long way from recovery, so that is the joint issue in the election which does not bode well for incumbents.

--

Rick C.

+- Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
+- Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

 

[dcaster@krl.org]

On Tuesday, April 7, 2020 at 9:24:17 PM UTC-4, Ricky C wrote:

Why is that assured? Research has been going on for many, many years looking for ways to treat and cure viral infections. Relatively little has been found. No magic bullets like antibiotics for bacteria.

--

Rick C

It is not assured, but I think things are changing. There are a couple of flu medicines now. The human genome has been deciphered
..
at great expense, _And now the cost is less than $100. And DNA is able to be edited , RNA is also able to be deciphered so we know what Corona virus is. _And I think that RNA can also be edited. We have cloud computing to handle huge data bases.

So there is a lot of research being done using methods that are relatively new.

Dan

 

[Ricky C]

On Tuesday, April 7, 2020 at 10:12:01 PM UTC-4, dca...@krl.org wrote:

On Tuesday, April 7, 2020 at 9:24:17 PM UTC-4, Ricky C wrote:


Why is that assured? Research has been going on for many, many years looking for ways to treat and cure viral infections. Relatively little has been found. No magic bullets like antibiotics for bacteria.

--

Rick C



It is not assured, but I think things are changing. There are a couple of flu medicines now. The human genome has been deciphered
.
at great expense, _And now the cost is less than $100. And DNA is able to be edited , RNA is also able to be deciphered so we know what Corona virus is. _And I think that RNA can also be edited. We have cloud computing to handle huge data bases.

So there is a lot of research being done using methods that are relatively new.

Dan

And yet no viruses have been cured to date in the way you seem to be talking about. Why is CV-19 different?

It's not like this disease was not expected. We knew it was coming. We just didn't know which virus or when.

The Bill Gates lecture from 2015 about the potential for a pandemic shows a coronavirus on the intro. But if I had been pushing for a magic bullet, I would have asked them to deal with Ebola. That's the one that can potentially mess us up big time. There would literally be panic in the streets if that starts sweeping the country. You won't have to tell anyone to stay at home with that one.

So why no viral cures if "we have the technology"?

--

Rick C.

--+ Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
--+ Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

 

[Robert Baer]

Bill Sloman wrote:

On Tuesday, April 7, 2020 at 11:48:12 AM UTC+10, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Mon, 6 Apr 2020 12:13:16 -0700 (PDT), whit3rd <whit3rd@gmail.com
wrote:

On Monday, April 6, 2020 at 8:14:55 AM UTC-7, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:

Right. Simulations are usually wrong in complex human-driven systems.

Simulations aren't a true-false proposition. They cannot be adjudged 'wrong' unless in comparison with another simulation. The claim is nonsense, spin without any basis..

They are wrong if their predictive utility is zero, or less. They are
wrong is they result in harmful public policy.

They are part of the data used by the humans who make public policy.

It's fairly obvious that Trump decisions about Covid-19 are based on his idea of what might get him re-elected in November. He lacks the atten tion span to follow what the simulation are telling hos expert advisors.

The thing to compare them to is not other sims, it's reality.

Unfortunately, while that reality is becoming obvious, people are dying of Covid-19.

The US death total is now up to 10,871 and rising. China managed to clamp down their epidemic with only 3,331 deaths. South Korea got away with 192.

That's 4 per million people. The US is now up to 33 deaths per million people. China was 2. Spain has done worst so far with 285 deaths per million people (if you ignore San Marino, which is tiny) but Spain's number of new case per day peaked about a week or ago and does seem to be declining, if not all that fast.

The US new case per day number peaked at 34196 on the 4th April, but the next two days aren't all that much lower, so the places that haven't been as rigorous about social distancing will probably keep it high for a while yet..

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

People are shocked by real estate or stock market crashes.
* Selling Real Estate requires showmanship; sanity sez ban that.

"If you're an economist, how come you ain't rich?"

John Maynard Keynes was. But he was a very good economist, as opposed to one that told rich people what they wanted to hear.

 

On Monday, April 6, 2020 at 3:56:31 AM UTC-4, Tom Gardner wrote:

All true, but I'm more interested in what actions cause those
numbers to move in the right direction.

It's interesting that Sweden achieved control without shutting down.
https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2020/04/swedens-numbers-vs-americas.php

I highly suspect that, like Taiwan, Asian successes in controlling
the spread are greatly helped by their cultural propensity to don
masks in public.

I've seen U.S. Asian folks wearing masks in public for years. I'd
always thought it a bit paranoid. But maybe it was just good
sense.

Cheers,
James Arthur

 

On Monday, April 6, 2020 at 11:10:36 AM UTC-4, dca...@krl.org wrote:

On Monday, April 6, 2020 at 3:56:31 AM UTC-4, Tom Gardner wrote:
On 06/04/20

All true, but I'm more interested in what actions cause those
numbers to move in the right direction.

Absolutely amazing. No one responded to my post. Lots of posts about when one should start the economy going , but not one post about the details on exactly how the economy should be started. No discussion on when sports events should be allowed to have fans come to matches. No discussion on when schools should reopen. No discussion of when foreign travel should be permitted. When should restaurants be allowed to have unlimited numbers of customers in attendance? When should cruise ships be allowed to resume cruises. Should they get tested for infection before being allowed to book a cruise?

I expect there will be lots of posts after the fa Act about the mistakes made in starting .the economy. I do hope some thought is being done by the various government agency on loosing the restrictions.

Dan

The short answer is that no one knows -- there are too many unknowns.

But ISTM, with the information currently available, that
o most of the country isn't affected(1)
o those areas could open now, with social-distancing (and possibly
face masks)
o infected individuals and communities should be quarantined until safe
o Fever-spotting imagers might usefully exclude sick people from stores.
(I have surveillance-society concerns with that, but those concerns
aside, thermal imaging could spot and stop some super-spreaders.)

(1) see the map -- https://www.sylacauganews.com/

Thoughts?

Cheers,
James Arthur

 

On Monday, April 6, 2020 at 11:09:29 PM UTC-4, dca...@krl.org wrote:

On Monday, April 6, 2020 at 10:18:06 PM UTC-4, Bill Sloman wrote:
On Tuesday, April 7, 2020 at 3:07:44 AM UTC+10, dca...@krl.org wrote:
On Monday, April 6, 2020 at 11:51:09 AM UTC-4, DecadentLinux...@decadence.org wrote:
"dcaster@krl.org" <dcaster@krl.org> wrote in
news:4d0e5efd-cb5e-4473-8d64-320703c9e838@googlegroups.com:

On Monday, April 6, 2020 at 3:56:31 AM UTC-4, Tom Gardner wrote:
On 06/04/20

All true, but I'm more interested in what actions cause those
numbers to move in the right direction.

Absolutely amazing. No one responded to my post. Lots of posts
about when one should start the economy going , but not one post
about the details on exactly how the economy should be started.
No discussion on when sports events should be allowed to have fans
come to matches. No discussion on when schools should reopen. No
discussion of when foreign travel should be permitted. When
should restaurants be allowed to have unlimited numbers of
customers in attendance? When should cruise ships be allowed to
resume cruises. Should they get tested for infection before being
allowed to book a cruise?

I expect there will be lots of posts after the fa Act about the
mistakes made in starting .the economy. I do hope some thought is
being done by the various government agency on loosing the
restrictions.

Dan


Maybe folks think things wills just start back up again as
employers call employees back to assess what logistics are required
to 'tool up the factory' again. Whether the 'factory' is an actual
factory or just a small business.

I would rather talk about removing an extremely dangerous element
that poses immediate danger to use all.

Donald John Trump is STILL being allowed to damage our nation
further with his ZERO skill inability to perform efficaciously in ANY
task, much less this moment of crisis.

His IMMEDIATE removal would be a great first step.

There. I participated. Some will not like it, but THAT is the
right first step.

Thanks for participating.

Unfortunately there are a lot of things that are not practical. Removing of Trump may be one of those things.

It's perfectly practicable. Having him certified as a mentally incompetent lunatic would do it.

Since you say it is practicable , why don't you explain exactly how you would get Trump certified as mentally incompetent. Feel free to name the person who would be certifying.



It would upset the Republican Party no end and while certifying all of them as mentally incompetent lunatics is also practicable, it's probably too difficult to get all of them at once.

He might be able to be removed in the next general election. But my guess is he will be re-elected.

Not a particularly reliable prediction. The perception that he mismanaged the response to the Covid-19 output is likely to spread as time goes on.

We shall see. If the epidemic is over and the economy has recovered, he is likely to win in a landslide.
He might be able to be removed in the next general election. But my guess is he will be re-elected.
Dan



Another thing I think will happen is that the government will remove all the restrictions while there are still new cases concurring. And that is why I think how the economy is restarted is important.
quoted
If the US government has any sense - and it doesn't seem to be exhibiting all that much so far - it will remove restrictions on an area-by-area basis, only after there have been no new cases in each area for a fortnight.

It only takes a single infectious person to restart the epidemic.


That s true, but the US will have lots of testing capability available and with only a few cases contact tracing should be effective.

Dan

You make a good point that by waiting, we can collapse the number
of cases to a more manageable number. But there will still be
reservoirs in people scattered all over the country (who are no
longer in New York .

How do you contact-trace someone who was never sick, walking through
a public area planting viral seeds?

Cheers,
James Arthur

 

[David Brown]

On 08/04/2020 18:23, dagmargoodboat@yahoo.com wrote:

On Monday, April 6, 2020 at 3:56:31 AM UTC-4, Tom Gardner wrote:

All true, but I'm more interested in what actions cause those
numbers to move in the right direction.

It's interesting that Sweden achieved control without shutting down.
https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2020/04/swedens-numbers-vs-americas.php

Sweden does not have control at all - not remotely. It has exponential
increases in the cases and deaths, it is losing control in the hospitals
in Stockholm, several key epidemiologists are now publicly warning of a
looming disaster, and they don't even know how many deaths they have had
(they've changed the way they count several times).

The idea behind the "herd immunity" strategy is to get about 60% of the
population infected and either recovered or dead. (The figure "60%" is
mostly a guess, but commonly quoted.) Sweden is heading for disaster
with a confirmed case rate of 0.1%. Even if we assume that the real
infection rate is several times higher due to non-symptomatic or
untested infections, they are getting overwhelmed when they are less
than 1% of the way towards their goal.

In contrast, Norway has had quite a solid lockdown for a month or so,
and the spreading factor is down to 0.7 new infections per infected
person. That means the disease is dying out here - while before the
lockdowns, we had one of the highest cases per head of population in the
world. Hospitals here are not overwhelmed - there are empty beds,
routine operations are being scheduled again, and we are sending a
medical team to Italy to help.

I highly suspect that, like Taiwan, Asian successes in controlling
the spread are greatly helped by their cultural propensity to don
masks in public.

We don't wear masks in Norway (except for medical staff, of course).

I've seen U.S. Asian folks wearing masks in public for years. I'd
always thought it a bit paranoid. But maybe it was just good
sense.

It may be useful for other diseases. It is also likely to help with
their terrible air pollution.

 

[speff]

On Wednesday, 8 April 2020 12:53:25 UTC-4, dagmarg...@yahoo.com wrote:

On Monday, April 6, 2020 at 11:09:29 PM UTC-4, dca...@krl.org wrote:
On Monday, April 6, 2020 at 10:18:06 PM UTC-4, Bill Sloman wrote:
On Tuesday, April 7, 2020 at 3:07:44 AM UTC+10, dca...@krl.org wrote:
On Monday, April 6, 2020 at 11:51:09 AM UTC-4, DecadentLinux...@decadence.org wrote:
"dcaster@krl.org" <dcaster@krl.org> wrote in
news:4d0e5efd-cb5e-4473-8d64-320703c9e838@googlegroups.com:

On Monday, April 6, 2020 at 3:56:31 AM UTC-4, Tom Gardner wrote:
On 06/04/20

All true, but I'm more interested in what actions cause those
numbers to move in the right direction.

Absolutely amazing. No one responded to my post. Lots of posts
about when one should start the economy going , but not one post
about the details on exactly how the economy should be started.
No discussion on when sports events should be allowed to have fans
come to matches. No discussion on when schools should reopen. No
discussion of when foreign travel should be permitted. When
should restaurants be allowed to have unlimited numbers of
customers in attendance? When should cruise ships be allowed to
resume cruises. Should they get tested for infection before being
allowed to book a cruise?

I expect there will be lots of posts after the fa Act about the
mistakes made in starting .the economy. I do hope some thought is
being done by the various government agency on loosing the
restrictions.

Dan


Maybe folks think things wills just start back up again as
employers call employees back to assess what logistics are required
to 'tool up the factory' again. Whether the 'factory' is an actual
factory or just a small business.

I would rather talk about removing an extremely dangerous element
that poses immediate danger to use all.

Donald John Trump is STILL being allowed to damage our nation
further with his ZERO skill inability to perform efficaciously in ANY
task, much less this moment of crisis.

His IMMEDIATE removal would be a great first step.

There. I participated. Some will not like it, but THAT is the
right first step.

Thanks for participating.

Unfortunately there are a lot of things that are not practical. Removing of Trump may be one of those things.

It's perfectly practicable. Having him certified as a mentally incompetent lunatic would do it.

Since you say it is practicable , why don't you explain exactly how you would get Trump certified as mentally incompetent. Feel free to name the person who would be certifying.



It would upset the Republican Party no end and while certifying all of them as mentally incompetent lunatics is also practicable, it's probably too difficult to get all of them at once.

He might be able to be removed in the next general election. But my guess is he will be re-elected.

Not a particularly reliable prediction. The perception that he mismanaged the response to the Covid-19 output is likely to spread as time goes on.

We shall see. If the epidemic is over and the economy has recovered, he is likely to win in a landslide.
He might be able to be removed in the next general election. But my guess is he will be re-elected.
Dan



Another thing I think will happen is that the government will remove all the restrictions while there are still new cases concurring. And that is why I think how the economy is restarted is important.
quoted
If the US government has any sense - and it doesn't seem to be exhibiting all that much so far - it will remove restrictions on an area-by-area basis, only after there have been no new cases in each area for a fortnight.

It only takes a single infectious person to restart the epidemic.


That s true, but the US will have lots of testing capability available and with only a few cases contact tracing should be effective.

Dan

You make a good point that by waiting, we can collapse the number
of cases to a more manageable number. But there will still be
reservoirs in people scattered all over the country (who are no
longer in New York .

How do you contact-trace someone who was never sick, walking through
a public area planting viral seeds?

Cheers,
James Arthur

Most of them, in cities especially, CAN easily be tracked
by their cell phones, including identifying everyone who they
come into contact with within some specified radius.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1242628347034767361

Whether we WANT to do that, or perhaps admit that it's
already being done for other purposes, is another question.

-- Spehro Pefhany


(if the twitter doesn't work for you)
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/3/26/1931608/-Startling-Visualization-of-how-COVID-19-could-spread-because-of-Spring-Break-Revelers

 

On Wednesday, April 8, 2020 at 1:02:49 PM UTC-4, David Brown wrote:

On 08/04/2020 18:23, dagmargoodboat@yahoo.com wrote:
On Monday, April 6, 2020 at 3:56:31 AM UTC-4, Tom Gardner wrote:

All true, but I'm more interested in what actions cause those
numbers to move in the right direction.

It's interesting that Sweden achieved control without shutting down.
https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2020/04/swedens-numbers-vs-americas.php


Sweden does not have control at all - not remotely. It has exponential
increases in the cases and deaths, it is losing control in the hospitals
in Stockholm, several key epidemiologists are now publicly warning of a
looming disaster, and they don't even know how many deaths they have had
(they've changed the way they count several times).

Thanks for that info. However, the point remains that, starting from
the same growth rate, Swedes have lowered their exponent to comparable
or less than the U.S.', without shutting down.

The idea behind the "herd immunity" strategy is to get about 60% of the
population infected and either recovered or dead. (The figure "60%" is
mostly a guess, but commonly quoted.) Sweden is heading for disaster
with a confirmed case rate of 0.1%. Even if we assume that the real
infection rate is several times higher due to non-symptomatic or
untested infections, they are getting overwhelmed when they are less
than 1% of the way towards their goal.

In contrast, Norway has had quite a solid lockdown for a month or so,
and the spreading factor is down to 0.7 new infections per infected
person. That means the disease is dying out here - while before the
lockdowns, we had one of the highest cases per head of population in the
world. Hospitals here are not overwhelmed - there are empty beds,
routine operations are being scheduled again, and we are sending a
medical team to Italy to help.

The first U.S. cases in Washington state were immediately contained
and quarantined. And the president cut off travel almost immediately,
on Jan. 31, when we had just that handful in a Washington state nursing
home.

New York seems to be our epicenter, and fleeing New Yorkers the source
of our secondary spread.

New York is, essentially, America's Italy.

Other than that, the U.S. was doing quite well. As you can see on this
map,

https://www.sylacauganews.com/

even now, most of the countryside still isn't affected.

I highly suspect that, like Taiwan, Asian successes in controlling
the spread are greatly helped by their cultural propensity to don
masks in public.


We don't wear masks in Norway (except for medical staff, of course).

I've seen U.S. Asian folks wearing masks in public for years. I'd
always thought it a bit paranoid. But maybe it was just good
sense.


It may be useful for other diseases. It is also likely to help with
their terrible air pollution.

The chief COVID benefit I see to masking, is reducing spreading by
unwitting carriers. Another benefit is that masks prevent their
wearers from touching their faces with contaminated fingers.

Cheers,
James Arthur

 

[Lasse Langwadt Christense]

onsdag den 8. april 2020 kl. 20.58.36 UTC+2 skrev John Larkin:

On Wed, 8 Apr 2020 11:31:17 -0700 (PDT), dagmargoodboat@yahoo.com
wrote:

On Wednesday, April 8, 2020 at 1:02:49 PM UTC-4, David Brown wrote:
On 08/04/2020 18:23, dagmargoodboat@yahoo.com wrote:
On Monday, April 6, 2020 at 3:56:31 AM UTC-4, Tom Gardner wrote:

All true, but I'm more interested in what actions cause those
numbers to move in the right direction.

It's interesting that Sweden achieved control without shutting down.
https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2020/04/swedens-numbers-vs-americas.php


Sweden does not have control at all - not remotely. It has exponential
increases in the cases and deaths, it is losing control in the hospitals
in Stockholm, several key epidemiologists are now publicly warning of a
looming disaster, and they don't even know how many deaths they have had
(they've changed the way they count several times).

Thanks for that info. However, the point remains that, starting from
the same growth rate, Swedes have lowered their exponent to comparable
or less than the U.S.', without shutting down.

The idea behind the "herd immunity" strategy is to get about 60% of the
population infected and either recovered or dead. (The figure "60%" is
mostly a guess, but commonly quoted.) Sweden is heading for disaster
with a confirmed case rate of 0.1%. Even if we assume that the real
infection rate is several times higher due to non-symptomatic or
untested infections, they are getting overwhelmed when they are less
than 1% of the way towards their goal.

The JH site shows that new cases peaked in Sweden on April 1, at about
62 PPM per day.






In contrast, Norway has had quite a solid lockdown for a month or so,
and the spreading factor is down to 0.7 new infections per infected
person. That means the disease is dying out here - while before the
lockdowns, we had one of the highest cases per head of population in the
world. Hospitals here are not overwhelmed - there are empty beds,
routine operations are being scheduled again, and we are sending a
medical team to Italy to help.

The first U.S. cases in Washington state were immediately contained
and quarantined. And the president cut off travel almost immediately,
on Jan. 31, when we had just that handful in a Washington state nursing
home.

New York seems to be our epicenter, and fleeing New Yorkers the source
of our secondary spread.

New York is, essentially, America's Italy.

Other than that, the U.S. was doing quite well. As you can see on this
map,

https://www.sylacauganews.com/

even now, most of the countryside still isn't affected.

I highly suspect that, like Taiwan, Asian successes in controlling
the spread are greatly helped by their cultural propensity to don
masks in public.


We don't wear masks in Norway (except for medical staff, of course).

I've seen U.S. Asian folks wearing masks in public for years. I'd
always thought it a bit paranoid. But maybe it was just good
sense.


It may be useful for other diseases. It is also likely to help with
their terrible air pollution.

The chief COVID benefit I see to masking, is reducing spreading by
unwitting carriers. Another benefit is that masks prevent their
wearers from touching their faces with contaminated fingers.

Cheers,
James Arthur

I don't see how things like masks and distancing will change much but
the time scale of the infection curve. Might chop off the tail a
little sharper.

The rationale for all these measures was originally to reduce hospital
overloads, but hospitals have more empty beds now than normal.

here we have been shutdown about 4-5 weeks, at least 10000 operation have been postponed, only about 10% of the available ventilators are in use

218 have died, 183 of them had been in hospital within the last 5 years, 211 over 60 years old

They are going to start opening up the youngest classes in school
and kindergartens next week, we'll see what happens then

 

On Wednesday, April 8, 2020 at 2:58:36 PM UTC-4, John Larkin wrote:

On Wed, 8 Apr 2020 11:31:17 -0700 (PDT), dagmargoodboat@yahoo.com
wrote:

On Wednesday, April 8, 2020 at 1:02:49 PM UTC-4, David Brown wrote:
On 08/04/2020 18:23, dagmargoodboat@yahoo.com wrote:
On Monday, April 6, 2020 at 3:56:31 AM UTC-4, Tom Gardner wrote:

All true, but I'm more interested in what actions cause those
numbers to move in the right direction.

It's interesting that Sweden achieved control without shutting down.
https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2020/04/swedens-numbers-vs-americas.php


Sweden does not have control at all - not remotely. It has exponential
increases in the cases and deaths, it is losing control in the hospitals
in Stockholm, several key epidemiologists are now publicly warning of a
looming disaster, and they don't even know how many deaths they have had
(they've changed the way they count several times).

Thanks for that info. However, the point remains that, starting from
the same growth rate, Swedes have lowered their exponent to comparable
or less than the U.S.', without shutting down.

The idea behind the "herd immunity" strategy is to get about 60% of the
population infected and either recovered or dead. (The figure "60%" is
mostly a guess, but commonly quoted.) Sweden is heading for disaster
with a confirmed case rate of 0.1%. Even if we assume that the real
infection rate is several times higher due to non-symptomatic or
untested infections, they are getting overwhelmed when they are less
than 1% of the way towards their goal.

The JH site shows that new cases peaked in Sweden on April 1, at about
62 PPM per day.






In contrast, Norway has had quite a solid lockdown for a month or so,
and the spreading factor is down to 0.7 new infections per infected
person. That means the disease is dying out here - while before the
lockdowns, we had one of the highest cases per head of population in the
world. Hospitals here are not overwhelmed - there are empty beds,
routine operations are being scheduled again, and we are sending a
medical team to Italy to help.

The first U.S. cases in Washington state were immediately contained
and quarantined. And the president cut off travel almost immediately,
on Jan. 31, when we had just that handful in a Washington state nursing
home.

New York seems to be our epicenter, and fleeing New Yorkers the source
of our secondary spread.

New York is, essentially, America's Italy.

Other than that, the U.S. was doing quite well. As you can see on this
map,

https://www.sylacauganews.com/

even now, most of the countryside still isn't affected.

I highly suspect that, like Taiwan, Asian successes in controlling
the spread are greatly helped by their cultural propensity to don
masks in public.


We don't wear masks in Norway (except for medical staff, of course).

I've seen U.S. Asian folks wearing masks in public for years. I'd
always thought it a bit paranoid. But maybe it was just good
sense.


It may be useful for other diseases. It is also likely to help with
their terrible air pollution.

The chief COVID benefit I see to masking, is reducing spreading by
unwitting carriers. Another benefit is that masks prevent their
wearers from touching their faces with contaminated fingers.

Cheers,
James Arthur

I don't see how things like masks and distancing will change much but
the time scale of the infection curve. Might chop off the tail a
little sharper.

The rationale for all these measures was originally to reduce hospital
overloads, but hospitals have more empty beds now than normal.

I've been updating a spreadsheet daily. On our original trajectory
(x1.34/day), we'd have had 4.7 million cases today. Instead, we
have about 400k.

So, perhaps we've struck a good compromise, the hospitals won't be
overloaded, and those of us who aren't living in plague-states / cities /
counties can all get back to work.

There's lots of nasty stuff out there all the time. But we don't let
it grind our gears to a halt -- we couldn't. Humanity couldn't survive
it. Heck, most of the world lives hand-to-mouth. Staying two months in
a cave isn't an option.

Cheers,
James Arthur

 

[John Larkin]

On Wed, 8 Apr 2020 11:31:17 -0700 (PDT), dagmargoodboat@yahoo.com
wrote:

On Wednesday, April 8, 2020 at 1:02:49 PM UTC-4, David Brown wrote:
On 08/04/2020 18:23, dagmargoodboat@yahoo.com wrote:
On Monday, April 6, 2020 at 3:56:31 AM UTC-4, Tom Gardner wrote:

All true, but I'm more interested in what actions cause those
numbers to move in the right direction.

It's interesting that Sweden achieved control without shutting down.
https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2020/04/swedens-numbers-vs-americas.php


Sweden does not have control at all - not remotely. It has exponential
increases in the cases and deaths, it is losing control in the hospitals
in Stockholm, several key epidemiologists are now publicly warning of a
looming disaster, and they don't even know how many deaths they have had
(they've changed the way they count several times).

Thanks for that info. However, the point remains that, starting from
the same growth rate, Swedes have lowered their exponent to comparable
or less than the U.S.', without shutting down.

The idea behind the "herd immunity" strategy is to get about 60% of the
population infected and either recovered or dead. (The figure "60%" is
mostly a guess, but commonly quoted.) Sweden is heading for disaster
with a confirmed case rate of 0.1%. Even if we assume that the real
infection rate is several times higher due to non-symptomatic or
untested infections, they are getting overwhelmed when they are less
than 1% of the way towards their goal.

The JH site shows that new cases peaked in Sweden on April 1, at about
62 PPM per day.

In contrast, Norway has had quite a solid lockdown for a month or so,
and the spreading factor is down to 0.7 new infections per infected
person. That means the disease is dying out here - while before the
lockdowns, we had one of the highest cases per head of population in the
world. Hospitals here are not overwhelmed - there are empty beds,
routine operations are being scheduled again, and we are sending a
medical team to Italy to help.

The first U.S. cases in Washington state were immediately contained
and quarantined. And the president cut off travel almost immediately,
on Jan. 31, when we had just that handful in a Washington state nursing
home.

New York seems to be our epicenter, and fleeing New Yorkers the source
of our secondary spread.

New York is, essentially, America's Italy.

Other than that, the U.S. was doing quite well. As you can see on this
map,

https://www.sylacauganews.com/

even now, most of the countryside still isn't affected.

I highly suspect that, like Taiwan, Asian successes in controlling
the spread are greatly helped by their cultural propensity to don
masks in public.


We don't wear masks in Norway (except for medical staff, of course).

I've seen U.S. Asian folks wearing masks in public for years. I'd
always thought it a bit paranoid. But maybe it was just good
sense.


It may be useful for other diseases. It is also likely to help with
their terrible air pollution.

The chief COVID benefit I see to masking, is reducing spreading by
unwitting carriers. Another benefit is that masks prevent their
wearers from touching their faces with contaminated fingers.

Cheers,
James Arthur

I don't see how things like masks and distancing will change much but
the time scale of the infection curve. Might chop off the tail a
little sharper.

The rationale for all these measures was originally to reduce hospital
overloads, but hospitals have more empty beds now than normal.

--

John Larkin Highland Technology, Inc
picosecond timing precision measurement

jlarkin att highlandtechnology dott com
http://www.highlandtechnology.com

 

[Ricky C]

On Wednesday, April 8, 2020 at 2:31:25 PM UTC-4, dagmarg...@yahoo.com wrote:

On Wednesday, April 8, 2020 at 1:02:49 PM UTC-4, David Brown wrote:
On 08/04/2020 18:23, dagmargoodboat@yahoo.com wrote:
On Monday, April 6, 2020 at 3:56:31 AM UTC-4, Tom Gardner wrote:

All true, but I'm more interested in what actions cause those
numbers to move in the right direction.

It's interesting that Sweden achieved control without shutting down.
https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2020/04/swedens-numbers-vs-americas.php


Sweden does not have control at all - not remotely. It has exponential
increases in the cases and deaths, it is losing control in the hospitals
in Stockholm, several key epidemiologists are now publicly warning of a
looming disaster, and they don't even know how many deaths they have had
(they've changed the way they count several times).

Thanks for that info. However, the point remains that, starting from
the same growth rate, Swedes have lowered their exponent to comparable
or less than the U.S.', without shutting down.

You seem to entirely miss the point that the US response is not the gold standard of fighting this disease. If the Swedes have matched the US that means they still have a LONG way to go.

The idea behind the "herd immunity" strategy is to get about 60% of the
population infected and either recovered or dead. (The figure "60%" is
mostly a guess, but commonly quoted.) Sweden is heading for disaster
with a confirmed case rate of 0.1%. Even if we assume that the real
infection rate is several times higher due to non-symptomatic or
untested infections, they are getting overwhelmed when they are less
than 1% of the way towards their goal.

In contrast, Norway has had quite a solid lockdown for a month or so,
and the spreading factor is down to 0.7 new infections per infected
person. That means the disease is dying out here - while before the
lockdowns, we had one of the highest cases per head of population in the
world. Hospitals here are not overwhelmed - there are empty beds,
routine operations are being scheduled again, and we are sending a
medical team to Italy to help.

The first U.S. cases in Washington state were immediately contained
and quarantined. And the president cut off travel almost immediately,
on Jan. 31, when we had just that handful in a Washington state nursing
home.

But those were not the only infections in the US (maybe the only ones we knew about) and the President did NOT "cut off" travel. He cut off the Chinese from traveling to the US. There were still plenty of flights between China and the US after his order. It was the airlines who eventually cut flights to protect their crews.

New York seems to be our epicenter, and fleeing New Yorkers the source
of our secondary spread.

New York is, essentially, America's Italy.

Other than that, the U.S. was doing quite well. As you can see on this
map,

https://www.sylacauganews.com/

even now, most of the countryside still isn't affected.

Not sure what you mean by "isn't affected". We have wide open parts of the US where we can barely find 10 people per square mile. So the infection rate will of course be low. But virtually everywhere there is a major population center there are significant infections. No, not so many in South Dakota unless you are in Sioux Falls. The Okeechobee swamp doesn't have so many infections either.

I highly suspect that, like Taiwan, Asian successes in controlling
the spread are greatly helped by their cultural propensity to don
masks in public.


We don't wear masks in Norway (except for medical staff, of course).

I've seen U.S. Asian folks wearing masks in public for years. I'd
always thought it a bit paranoid. But maybe it was just good
sense.


It may be useful for other diseases. It is also likely to help with
their terrible air pollution.

The chief COVID benefit I see to masking, is reducing spreading by
unwitting carriers. Another benefit is that masks prevent their
wearers from touching their faces with contaminated fingers.

I think it helps to raise awareness of the disease. In in a less populated area (although a lot more than 10 per square mile) so the infection rate is not high yet. I think this keeps many from thinking this is a serious disease. Seeing others wearing masks helps to bring it home. I'm pretty sure the cashier behind the plexiglass screen was taking it seriously even if she failed to understand "best practices" for preventing the spread of the virus.

--

Rick C.

-+- Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
-+- Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

 

[Ricky C]

On Wednesday, April 8, 2020 at 3:28:36 PM UTC-4, Lasse Langwadt Christensen wrote:

here we have been shutdown about 4-5 weeks, at least 10000 operation have been postponed, only about 10% of the available ventilators are in use

218 have died, 183 of them had been in hospital within the last 5 years, 211 over 60 years old

They are going to start opening up the youngest classes in school
and kindergartens next week, we'll see what happens then

Sorry for not remembering but where is "here" again?

--

Rick C.

-++ Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
-++ Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

 

[John Larkin]

On Wed, 8 Apr 2020 12:28:31 -0700 (PDT), Lasse Langwadt Christensen
<langwadt@fonz.dk> wrote:

onsdag den 8. april 2020 kl. 20.58.36 UTC+2 skrev John Larkin:
On Wed, 8 Apr 2020 11:31:17 -0700 (PDT), dagmargoodboat@yahoo.com
wrote:

On Wednesday, April 8, 2020 at 1:02:49 PM UTC-4, David Brown wrote:
On 08/04/2020 18:23, dagmargoodboat@yahoo.com wrote:
On Monday, April 6, 2020 at 3:56:31 AM UTC-4, Tom Gardner wrote:

All true, but I'm more interested in what actions cause those
numbers to move in the right direction.

It's interesting that Sweden achieved control without shutting down.
https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2020/04/swedens-numbers-vs-americas.php


Sweden does not have control at all - not remotely. It has exponential
increases in the cases and deaths, it is losing control in the hospitals
in Stockholm, several key epidemiologists are now publicly warning of a
looming disaster, and they don't even know how many deaths they have had
(they've changed the way they count several times).

Thanks for that info. However, the point remains that, starting from
the same growth rate, Swedes have lowered their exponent to comparable
or less than the U.S.', without shutting down.

The idea behind the "herd immunity" strategy is to get about 60% of the
population infected and either recovered or dead. (The figure "60%" is
mostly a guess, but commonly quoted.) Sweden is heading for disaster
with a confirmed case rate of 0.1%. Even if we assume that the real
infection rate is several times higher due to non-symptomatic or
untested infections, they are getting overwhelmed when they are less
than 1% of the way towards their goal.

The JH site shows that new cases peaked in Sweden on April 1, at about
62 PPM per day.






In contrast, Norway has had quite a solid lockdown for a month or so,
and the spreading factor is down to 0.7 new infections per infected
person. That means the disease is dying out here - while before the
lockdowns, we had one of the highest cases per head of population in the
world. Hospitals here are not overwhelmed - there are empty beds,
routine operations are being scheduled again, and we are sending a
medical team to Italy to help.

The first U.S. cases in Washington state were immediately contained
and quarantined. And the president cut off travel almost immediately,
on Jan. 31, when we had just that handful in a Washington state nursing
home.

New York seems to be our epicenter, and fleeing New Yorkers the source
of our secondary spread.

New York is, essentially, America's Italy.

Other than that, the U.S. was doing quite well. As you can see on this
map,

https://www.sylacauganews.com/

even now, most of the countryside still isn't affected.

I highly suspect that, like Taiwan, Asian successes in controlling
the spread are greatly helped by their cultural propensity to don
masks in public.


We don't wear masks in Norway (except for medical staff, of course).

I've seen U.S. Asian folks wearing masks in public for years. I'd
always thought it a bit paranoid. But maybe it was just good
sense.


It may be useful for other diseases. It is also likely to help with
their terrible air pollution.

The chief COVID benefit I see to masking, is reducing spreading by
unwitting carriers. Another benefit is that masks prevent their
wearers from touching their faces with contaminated fingers.

Cheers,
James Arthur

I don't see how things like masks and distancing will change much but
the time scale of the infection curve. Might chop off the tail a
little sharper.

The rationale for all these measures was originally to reduce hospital
overloads, but hospitals have more empty beds now than normal.


here we have been shutdown about 4-5 weeks, at least 10000 operation have been postponed,

That's killing people too.

--

John Larkin Highland Technology, Inc
picosecond timing precision measurement

jlarkin att highlandtechnology dott com
http://www.highlandtechnology.com

 

[David Brown]

On 08/04/2020 20:31, dagmargoodboat@yahoo.com wrote:

On Wednesday, April 8, 2020 at 1:02:49 PM UTC-4, David Brown wrote:
On 08/04/2020 18:23, dagmargoodboat@yahoo.com wrote:
On Monday, April 6, 2020 at 3:56:31 AM UTC-4, Tom Gardner wrote:

All true, but I'm more interested in what actions cause those
numbers to move in the right direction.

It's interesting that Sweden achieved control without shutting down.
https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2020/04/swedens-numbers-vs-americas.php


Sweden does not have control at all - not remotely. It has exponential
increases in the cases and deaths, it is losing control in the hospitals
in Stockholm, several key epidemiologists are now publicly warning of a
looming disaster, and they don't even know how many deaths they have had
(they've changed the way they count several times).

Thanks for that info. However, the point remains that, starting from
the same growth rate, Swedes have lowered their exponent to comparable
or less than the U.S.', without shutting down.

There is always a delay between shutting down, and the shutdown having
an effect on the numbers. There are also many other factors involved -
some inevitable (such as the denser population in cities in the USA),
some cultural (such as the vastly different health systems), and some
dynamic (such as the very poor early testing in the USA - a certain part
of your growth of known cases is due to more testing).

It is very difficult to compare countries in general, and the USA is
significantly different here from Sweden.

The idea behind the "herd immunity" strategy is to get about 60% of the
population infected and either recovered or dead. (The figure "60%" is
mostly a guess, but commonly quoted.) Sweden is heading for disaster
with a confirmed case rate of 0.1%. Even if we assume that the real
infection rate is several times higher due to non-symptomatic or
untested infections, they are getting overwhelmed when they are less
than 1% of the way towards their goal.

In contrast, Norway has had quite a solid lockdown for a month or so,
and the spreading factor is down to 0.7 new infections per infected
person. That means the disease is dying out here - while before the
lockdowns, we had one of the highest cases per head of population in the
world. Hospitals here are not overwhelmed - there are empty beds,
routine operations are being scheduled again, and we are sending a
medical team to Italy to help.

The first U.S. cases in Washington state were immediately contained
and quarantined. And the president cut off travel almost immediately,
on Jan. 31, when we had just that handful in a Washington state nursing
home.

No, travel (to China, then Europe) was not cut off - it was limited in a
way that was of little real effect. Chinese people couldn't travel into
the USA, but Americans could travel to and from China. It was more of a
symbolic "blame China" move.

Quarantine is always a good idea, however.

New York seems to be our epicenter, and fleeing New Yorkers the source
of our secondary spread.

Yes.

It is very difficult to limit spread within a free country.

New York is, essentially, America's Italy.

Other than that, the U.S. was doing quite well. As you can see on this
map,

https://www.sylacauganews.com/

even now, most of the countryside still isn't affected.

Plagues are always a bigger issue in towns and cities.

I highly suspect that, like Taiwan, Asian successes in controlling
the spread are greatly helped by their cultural propensity to don
masks in public.


We don't wear masks in Norway (except for medical staff, of course).

I've seen U.S. Asian folks wearing masks in public for years. I'd
always thought it a bit paranoid. But maybe it was just good
sense.


It may be useful for other diseases. It is also likely to help with
their terrible air pollution.

The chief COVID benefit I see to masking, is reducing spreading by
unwitting carriers.

Yes. How much it helps there is debatable. (By that, I really mean the
experts are trying to figure this out - not that I necessarily disagree
with you.)

Another benefit is that masks prevent their
wearers from touching their faces with contaminated fingers.

Often you get the opposite effect.

You also get a significant effect of people hoarding masks that really
are needed for medical staff, until the supplies are sufficient for
everyone.

 

On Wednesday, April 8, 2020 at 4:44:30 PM UTC-4, David Brown wrote:

On 08/04/2020 20:31, dagmargoodboat@yahoo.com wrote:
On Wednesday, April 8, 2020 at 1:02:49 PM UTC-4, David Brown wrote:
On 08/04/2020 18:23, dagmargoodboat@yahoo.com wrote:
On Monday, April 6, 2020 at 3:56:31 AM UTC-4, Tom Gardner wrote:

All true, but I'm more interested in what actions cause those
numbers to move in the right direction.

It's interesting that Sweden achieved control without shutting down.
https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2020/04/swedens-numbers-vs-americas.php


Sweden does not have control at all - not remotely. It has exponential
increases in the cases and deaths, it is losing control in the hospitals
in Stockholm, several key epidemiologists are now publicly warning of a
looming disaster, and they don't even know how many deaths they have had
(they've changed the way they count several times).

Thanks for that info. However, the point remains that, starting from
the same growth rate, Swedes have lowered their exponent to comparable
or less than the U.S.', without shutting down.

There is always a delay between shutting down, and the shutdown having
an effect on the numbers. There are also many other factors involved -
some inevitable (such as the denser population in cities in the USA),
some cultural (such as the vastly different health systems), and some
dynamic (such as the very poor early testing in the USA - a certain part
of your growth of known cases is due to more testing).

You're over complicating the issues. Our excellent healthcare -- the
care people get once infected -- has little bearing on people getting
infected in the first place. Health care beyond basic supportive care
might not even change outcomes, much.

Testing is another faux controversy -- Europe had far more cases
and initially a 2-4x higher infection rate than the U.S., despite
whatever testing. Europe was COVID-swarmed weeks before the U.S.,
because Europe failed to cut off their inflow of infected individuals.
Testing, testing, testing while new vectors keep flowing in is
a losing proposition.

In Asia, testing regimens seem uncorrelated with control outcomes --
some intensively-testing countries are worst off, while certain
sparsely-testing countries have succeeded.

So, gross test-count is a poor proxy metric for overall pandemic
control. It's shallow & silly.

I'm sure you'll disagree but you don't need tests at all to stop a
pandemic. In fact that's exactly what we've done for all of human
history up until now: If you're sick, stay home. If you've been
exposed, quarantine. If someone's sick, stay clear. No testing
needed. COVID's no different, it's just the first one we've seen
spreading on Twitter in real-time.

It is very difficult to compare countries in general, and the USA is
significantly different here from Sweden.


The idea behind the "herd immunity" strategy is to get about 60% of the
population infected and either recovered or dead. (The figure "60%" is
mostly a guess, but commonly quoted.) Sweden is heading for disaster
with a confirmed case rate of 0.1%. Even if we assume that the real
infection rate is several times higher due to non-symptomatic or
untested infections, they are getting overwhelmed when they are less
than 1% of the way towards their goal.

In contrast, Norway has had quite a solid lockdown for a month or so,
and the spreading factor is down to 0.7 new infections per infected
person. That means the disease is dying out here - while before the
lockdowns, we had one of the highest cases per head of population in the
world. Hospitals here are not overwhelmed - there are empty beds,
routine operations are being scheduled again, and we are sending a
medical team to Italy to help.

The first U.S. cases in Washington state were immediately contained
and quarantined. And the president cut off travel almost immediately,
on Jan. 31, when we had just that handful in a Washington state nursing
home.


No, travel (to China, then Europe) was not cut off - it was limited in a
way that was of little real effect. Chinese people couldn't travel into
the USA, but Americans could travel to and from China. It was more of a
symbolic "blame China" move.

American citizens were still permitted to repatriate, but after
two-week quarantine. Foreign nationals were banned.

"The action means that U.S. citizens who have been in China's Hubei
Province in the past 14 days will be subject to 14 days of mandatory
quarantine if they travel back to the United States."
https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/01/31/801686524/trump-declares-coronavirus-a-public-health-emergency-and-restricts-travel-from-c

The numbers are pretty clear -- it made a whale of a difference. It
took several weeks for our infection rate to catch up to Europe's,
which is a big deal when something is growing 34% per day.

Quarantine is always a good idea, however.

New York seems to be our epicenter, and fleeing New Yorkers the source
of our secondary spread.

Yes.

It is very difficult to limit spread within a free country.

Indeed. But we're getting there. People are pitching in, sharing
information, helping each other, and making strides. Web pages have
sprouted. Advice is being shared. Ideas traded. Treatments tried.

Freedom works in wonderful ways that greatly outweigh its modest
limitations.

New York is, essentially, America's Italy.

Other than that, the U.S. was doing quite well. As you can see on this
map,

https://www.sylacauganews.com/

even now, most of the countryside still isn't affected.

Cheers,
James Arthur

 

[Lasse Langwadt Christense]

onsdag den 8. april 2020 kl. 22.15.26 UTC+2 skrev Ricky C:

On Wednesday, April 8, 2020 at 3:28:36 PM UTC-4, Lasse Langwadt Christensen wrote:

here we have been shutdown about 4-5 weeks, at least 10000 operation have been postponed, only about 10% of the available ventilators are in use

218 have died, 183 of them had been in hospital within the last 5 years, 211 over 60 years old

They are going to start opening up the youngest classes in school
and kindergartens next week, we'll see what happens then

Sorry for not remembering but where is "here" again?

Denmark, will be interesting to compare with Sweden as far as I can
tell they currently have about twice the number of deaths and people
in intensive care per million population

 

[Lasse Langwadt Christense]

onsdag den 8. april 2020 kl. 22.29.12 UTC+2 skrev John Larkin:

On Wed, 8 Apr 2020 12:28:31 -0700 (PDT), Lasse Langwadt Christensen
langwadt@fonz.dk> wrote:

onsdag den 8. april 2020 kl. 20.58.36 UTC+2 skrev John Larkin:
On Wed, 8 Apr 2020 11:31:17 -0700 (PDT), dagmargoodboat@yahoo.com
wrote:

On Wednesday, April 8, 2020 at 1:02:49 PM UTC-4, David Brown wrote:
On 08/04/2020 18:23, dagmargoodboat@yahoo.com wrote:
On Monday, April 6, 2020 at 3:56:31 AM UTC-4, Tom Gardner wrote:

All true, but I'm more interested in what actions cause those
numbers to move in the right direction.

It's interesting that Sweden achieved control without shutting down.
https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2020/04/swedens-numbers-vs-americas.php


Sweden does not have control at all - not remotely. It has exponential
increases in the cases and deaths, it is losing control in the hospitals
in Stockholm, several key epidemiologists are now publicly warning of a
looming disaster, and they don't even know how many deaths they have had
(they've changed the way they count several times).

Thanks for that info. However, the point remains that, starting from
the same growth rate, Swedes have lowered their exponent to comparable
or less than the U.S.', without shutting down.

The idea behind the "herd immunity" strategy is to get about 60% of the
population infected and either recovered or dead. (The figure "60%" is
mostly a guess, but commonly quoted.) Sweden is heading for disaster
with a confirmed case rate of 0.1%. Even if we assume that the real
infection rate is several times higher due to non-symptomatic or
untested infections, they are getting overwhelmed when they are less
than 1% of the way towards their goal.

The JH site shows that new cases peaked in Sweden on April 1, at about
62 PPM per day.






In contrast, Norway has had quite a solid lockdown for a month or so,
and the spreading factor is down to 0.7 new infections per infected
person. That means the disease is dying out here - while before the
lockdowns, we had one of the highest cases per head of population in the
world. Hospitals here are not overwhelmed - there are empty beds,
routine operations are being scheduled again, and we are sending a
medical team to Italy to help.

The first U.S. cases in Washington state were immediately contained
and quarantined. And the president cut off travel almost immediately,
on Jan. 31, when we had just that handful in a Washington state nursing
home.

New York seems to be our epicenter, and fleeing New Yorkers the source
of our secondary spread.

New York is, essentially, America's Italy.

Other than that, the U.S. was doing quite well. As you can see on this
map,

https://www.sylacauganews.com/

even now, most of the countryside still isn't affected.

I highly suspect that, like Taiwan, Asian successes in controlling
the spread are greatly helped by their cultural propensity to don
masks in public.


We don't wear masks in Norway (except for medical staff, of course).

I've seen U.S. Asian folks wearing masks in public for years. I'd
always thought it a bit paranoid. But maybe it was just good
sense.


It may be useful for other diseases. It is also likely to help with
their terrible air pollution.

The chief COVID benefit I see to masking, is reducing spreading by
unwitting carriers. Another benefit is that masks prevent their
wearers from touching their faces with contaminated fingers.

Cheers,
James Arthur

I don't see how things like masks and distancing will change much but
the time scale of the infection curve. Might chop off the tail a
little sharper.

The rationale for all these measures was originally to reduce hospital
overloads, but hospitals have more empty beds now than normal.


here we have been shutdown about 4-5 weeks, at least 10000 operation have been postponed,

That's killing people too.

It could, but critical and emergency operations are still being done so
it is mostly inconvenient, but they will have to be done (and paid for) eventually