Past the peak, now what?

[whit3rd]

On Monday, April 6, 2020 at 8:14:55 AM UTC-7, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:

> Right. Simulations are usually wrong in complex human-driven systems.

Simulations aren't a true-false proposition. They cannot be adjudged 'wrong'
unless in comparison with another simulation. The claim is nonsense, spin
without any basis..

Complex human-driven systems are easily treated statistically,
and 'the wisdom of crowds' is an early and interesting result in that
field.

 

[Bill Sloman]

On Tuesday, April 7, 2020 at 11:48:12 AM UTC+10, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:

On Mon, 6 Apr 2020 12:13:16 -0700 (PDT), whit3rd <whit3rd@gmail.com
wrote:

On Monday, April 6, 2020 at 8:14:55 AM UTC-7, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:

Right. Simulations are usually wrong in complex human-driven systems.

Simulations aren't a true-false proposition. They cannot be adjudged 'wrong' unless in comparison with another simulation. The claim is nonsense, spin without any basis..

They are wrong if their predictive utility is zero, or less. They are
wrong is they result in harmful public policy.

They are part of the data used by the humans who make public policy.

It's fairly obvious that Trump decisions about Covid-19 are based on his idea of what might get him re-elected in November. He lacks the atten tion span to follow what the simulation are telling hos expert advisors.

> The thing to compare them to is not other sims, it's reality.

Unfortunately, while that reality is becoming obvious, people are dying of Covid-19.

The US death total is now up to 10,871 and rising. China managed to clamp down their epidemic with only 3,331 deaths. South Korea got away with 192.

That's 4 per million people. The US is now up to 33 deaths per million people. China was 2. Spain has done worst so far with 285 deaths per million people (if you ignore San Marino, which is tiny) but Spain's number of new case per day peaked about a week or ago and does seem to be declining, if not all that fast.

The US new case per day number peaked at 34196 on the 4th April, but the next two days aren't all that much lower, so the places that haven't been as rigorous about social distancing will probably keep it high for a while yet..

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

People are shocked by real estate or stock market crashes.

"If you're an economist, how come you ain't rich?"

John Maynard Keynes was. But he was a very good economist, as opposed to one that told rich people what they wanted to hear.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

 

On Mon, 6 Apr 2020 12:13:16 -0700 (PDT), whit3rd <whit3rd@gmail.com>
wrote:

On Monday, April 6, 2020 at 8:14:55 AM UTC-7, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:

Right. Simulations are usually wrong in complex human-driven systems.

Simulations aren't a true-false proposition. They cannot be adjudged 'wrong'
unless in comparison with another simulation. The claim is nonsense, spin
without any basis..

They are wrong if their predictive utility is zero, or less. They are
wrong is they result in harmful public policy.

The thing to compare them to is not other sims, it's reality.

People are shocked by real estate or stock market crashes.

"If you're an economist, how come you ain't rich?"



--

John Larkin Highland Technology, Inc

Science teaches us to doubt.

Claude Bernard

 

[Bill Sloman]

On Tuesday, April 7, 2020 at 1:14:55 AM UTC+10, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:

On Mon, 6 Apr 2020 08:08:44 +0100, Tom Gardner
spamjunk@blueyonder.co.uk> wrote:
On 06/04/20 04:37, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:

Right. Simulations are usually wrong in complex human-driven systems.

John Larkin hasn't noticed that this is a simple virus driven system.

The only part humans play is in getting infected.

We can change the number of people an infected human is likely to infect before they become obviously infected and get quarantined.

Vigorous contact tracing - which lets you isolated almost everybody who might have been infected by a single infected person after it has become obvious that they were infected - is the most effective way of doing this.

Lock-down - which minimises social interactions - is less effective, but if it's rigorous enough it does seem to be able limit the new infection rate below one new infection per infected person.

Any simulation has got to be able to plug realistic values for R - the number of people each infected person infects - and it's not clear how they'd get that data.

The complexity is in how people interact, and in monitoring that, rather than in the process being modelled, which is pretty straight forward.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

 

[Bill Sloman]

On Tuesday, April 7, 2020 at 3:07:44 AM UTC+10, dca...@krl.org wrote:

On Monday, April 6, 2020 at 11:51:09 AM UTC-4, DecadentLinux...@decadence..org wrote:
"dcaster@krl.org" <dcaster@krl.org> wrote in
news:4d0e5efd-cb5e-4473-8d64-320703c9e838@googlegroups.com:

On Monday, April 6, 2020 at 3:56:31 AM UTC-4, Tom Gardner wrote:
On 06/04/20

All true, but I'm more interested in what actions cause those
numbers to move in the right direction.

Absolutely amazing. No one responded to my post. Lots of posts
about when one should start the economy going , but not one post
about the details on exactly how the economy should be started.
No discussion on when sports events should be allowed to have fans
come to matches. No discussion on when schools should reopen. No
discussion of when foreign travel should be permitted. When
should restaurants be allowed to have unlimited numbers of
customers in attendance? When should cruise ships be allowed to
resume cruises. Should they get tested for infection before being
allowed to book a cruise?

I expect there will be lots of posts after the fa Act about the
mistakes made in starting .the economy. I do hope some thought is
being done by the various government agency on loosing the
restrictions.

Dan


Maybe folks think things wills just start back up again as
employers call employees back to assess what logistics are required
to 'tool up the factory' again. Whether the 'factory' is an actual
factory or just a small business.

I would rather talk about removing an extremely dangerous element
that poses immediate danger to use all.

Donald John Trump is STILL being allowed to damage our nation
further with his ZERO skill inability to perform efficaciously in ANY
task, much less this moment of crisis.

His IMMEDIATE removal would be a great first step.

There. I participated. Some will not like it, but THAT is the
right first step.

Thanks for participating.

Unfortunately there are a lot of things that are not practical. Removing of Trump may be one of those things.

It's perfectly practicable. Having him certified as a mentally incompetent lunatic would do it. It would upset the Republican Party no end and while certifying all of them as mentally incompetent lunatics is also practicable, it's probably too difficult to get all of them at once.

> He might be able to be removed in the next general election. But my guess is he will be re-elected. This is just what I believe will happen.

Not a particularly reliable prediction. The perception that he mismanaged the response to the Covid-19 output is likely to spread as time goes on.

> Another thing I think will happen is that the government will remove all the restrictions while there are still new cases concurring. And that is why I think how the economy is restarted is important.

If the US government has any sense - and it doesn't seem to be exhibiting all that much so far - it will remove restrictions on an area-by-area basis, only after there have been no new cases in each area for a fortnight.

It only takes a single infectious person to restart the epidemic.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

 

[dcaster@krl.org]

On Monday, April 6, 2020 at 10:18:06 PM UTC-4, Bill Sloman wrote:

On Tuesday, April 7, 2020 at 3:07:44 AM UTC+10, dca...@krl.org wrote:
On Monday, April 6, 2020 at 11:51:09 AM UTC-4, DecadentLinux...@decadence.org wrote:
"dcaster@krl.org" <dcaster@krl.org> wrote in
news:4d0e5efd-cb5e-4473-8d64-320703c9e838@googlegroups.com:

On Monday, April 6, 2020 at 3:56:31 AM UTC-4, Tom Gardner wrote:
On 06/04/20

All true, but I'm more interested in what actions cause those
numbers to move in the right direction.

Absolutely amazing. No one responded to my post. Lots of posts
about when one should start the economy going , but not one post
about the details on exactly how the economy should be started.
No discussion on when sports events should be allowed to have fans
come to matches. No discussion on when schools should reopen. No
discussion of when foreign travel should be permitted. When
should restaurants be allowed to have unlimited numbers of
customers in attendance? When should cruise ships be allowed to
resume cruises. Should they get tested for infection before being
allowed to book a cruise?

I expect there will be lots of posts after the fa Act about the
mistakes made in starting .the economy. I do hope some thought is
being done by the various government agency on loosing the
restrictions.

Dan


Maybe folks think things wills just start back up again as
employers call employees back to assess what logistics are required
to 'tool up the factory' again. Whether the 'factory' is an actual
factory or just a small business.

I would rather talk about removing an extremely dangerous element
that poses immediate danger to use all.

Donald John Trump is STILL being allowed to damage our nation
further with his ZERO skill inability to perform efficaciously in ANY
task, much less this moment of crisis.

His IMMEDIATE removal would be a great first step.

There. I participated. Some will not like it, but THAT is the
right first step.

Thanks for participating.

Unfortunately there are a lot of things that are not practical. Removing of Trump may be one of those things.

It's perfectly practicable. Having him certified as a mentally incompetent lunatic would do it.

Since you say it is practicable , why don't you explain exactly how you would get Trump certified as mentally incompetent. Feel free to name the person who would be certifying.



It would upset the Republican Party no end and while certifying all of them as mentally incompetent lunatics is also practicable, it's probably too difficult to get all of them at once.

He might be able to be removed in the next general election. But my guess is he will be re-elected.

Not a particularly reliable prediction. The perception that he mismanaged the response to the Covid-19 output is likely to spread as time goes on.

We shall see. If the epidemic is over and the economy has recovered, he is likely to win in a landslide.

He might be able to be removed in the next general election. But my guess is he will be re-elected.
Dan

Another thing I think will happen is that the government will remove all the restrictions while there are still new cases concurring. And that is why I think how the economy is restarted is important.
quoted
If the US government has any sense - and it doesn't seem to be exhibiting all that much so far - it will remove restrictions on an area-by-area basis, only after there have been no new cases in each area for a fortnight.

It only takes a single infectious person to restart the epidemic.

That s true, but the US will have lots of testing capability available and with only a few cases contact tracing should be effective.

Dan

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

 

[Jasen Betts]

On 2020-04-06, dcaster@krl.org <dcaster@krl.org> wrote:

On Monday, April 6, 2020 at 3:56:31 AM UTC-4, Tom Gardner wrote:
On 06/04/20

All true, but I'm more interested in what actions cause those
numbers to move in the right direction.

Absolutely amazing. No one responded to my post.

[broken paraphrase of the questiuon trimmed]

It looked very much like a trick question.

--
Jasen.

 

[Bill Sloman]

On Tuesday, April 7, 2020 at 1:09:29 PM UTC+10, dca...@krl.org wrote:

On Monday, April 6, 2020 at 10:18:06 PM UTC-4, Bill Sloman wrote:
On Tuesday, April 7, 2020 at 3:07:44 AM UTC+10, dca...@krl.org wrote:
On Monday, April 6, 2020 at 11:51:09 AM UTC-4, DecadentLinux...@decadence.org wrote:
"dcaster@krl.org" <dcaster@krl.org> wrote in
news:4d0e5efd-cb5e-4473-8d64-320703c9e838@googlegroups.com:

On Monday, April 6, 2020 at 3:56:31 AM UTC-4, Tom Gardner wrote:
On 06/04/20

I would rather talk about removing an extremely dangerous element
that poses immediate danger to use all.

Donald John Trump is STILL being allowed to damage our nation
further with his ZERO skill inability to perform efficaciously in ANY
task, much less this moment of crisis.

His IMMEDIATE removal would be a great first step.

There. I participated. Some will not like it, but THAT is the
right first step.

Thanks for participating.

Unfortunately there are a lot of things that are not practical. Removing of Trump may be one of those things.

It's perfectly practicable. Having him certified as a mentally incompetent lunatic would do it.

Since you say it is practicable , why don't you explain exactly how you would get Trump certified as mentally incompetent. Feel free to name the person who would be certifying.

It would take two psychiatrists to certify him. Getting him to sit still for long enough for them to conduct the examination required before certification would probably take a lot of work, and require a lot of heavyweight political influence to let it happen. I said practicable - not practical.

It would upset the Republican Party no end and while certifying all of them as mentally incompetent lunatics is also practicable, it's probably too difficult to get all of them at once.

He might be able to be removed in the next general election. But my guess is he will be re-elected.

That depends on how well the US press manages to document his bad choices.

> > Not a particularly reliable prediction. The perception that he mismanaged the response to the Covid-19 output is likely to spread as time goes on.

<snip>

Another thing I think will happen is that the government will remove all the restrictions while there are still new cases concurring. And that is why I think how the economy is restarted is important.

If the US government has any sense - and it doesn't seem to be exhibiting all that much so far - it will remove restrictions on an area-by-area basis, only after there have been no new cases in each area for a fortnight.

It only takes a single infectious person to restart the epidemic.

That s true, but the US will have lots of testing capability available and with only a few cases contact tracing should be effective.

You'd have to be testing everybody at regular intervals. It typically takes five days to go from being infected to having obvious symptoms, and you get progressively more infectious as the exponential process multiplies the number of virus particles you are generating, so the intervals need to be pretty short.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

 

[whit3rd]

On Monday, April 6, 2020 at 6:48:12 PM UTC-7, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:

On Mon, 6 Apr 2020 12:13:16 -0700 (PDT), whit3rd <whit3rd@gmail.com
wrote:

Simulations aren't a true-false proposition. They cannot be adjudged 'wrong'
unless in comparison with another simulation.

They are wrong if their predictive utility is zero, or less. They are
wrong is they result in harmful public policy.

Is a tax a 'harmful public policy'? Shutdowns are somewhat damaging, true,
but we DO NOT KNOW future facts except through our thoughts, which
are simulations. You toss out all 'simulations', you don't have any
useful intelligence to apply to a situation. Neither does a newborn babe.

Adults should be able to do better.

Do the courageous thing for once, give a specific example.
If it's real, human experience MUST have an example.

 

On Mon, 6 Apr 2020 22:22:00 -0700 (PDT), whit3rd <whit3rd@gmail.com>
wrote:

On Monday, April 6, 2020 at 6:48:12 PM UTC-7, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Mon, 6 Apr 2020 12:13:16 -0700 (PDT), whit3rd <whit3rd@gmail.com
wrote:

Simulations aren't a true-false proposition. They cannot be adjudged 'wrong'
unless in comparison with another simulation.

They are wrong if their predictive utility is zero, or less. They are
wrong is they result in harmful public policy.

Is a tax a 'harmful public policy'? Shutdowns are somewhat damaging, true,
but we DO NOT KNOW future facts except through our thoughts, which
are simulations. You toss out all 'simulations', you don't have any
useful intelligence to apply to a situation. Neither does a newborn babe.

I make most of my living through simulations. It improves my
engineering productivy by 5:1 at least. We've gotten pretty good at
it.

We simulate in Spice, Python, VHDL, and PowerBasic. We use E/M
simulators now and then. We don't have any good 3D thermal simulators,
so we guess or breadboard thermals.

What I "toss out" is bad simulations, ones that fail miserably at
prediction of future system states. Or ones that produce wildly
different predictions for tiny changes in parameters or initial
conditions.

Adults should be able to do better.

Do the courageous thing for once, give a specific example.

Example of a bad simulation? The Population Bomb. All the stuff that
Al Gore predicted based on The Science. The course of this virus. The
stock market. The price of gold or sugar or condos. Next year's
snowpack.

>If it's real, human experience MUST have an example.

Far too many.



--

John Larkin Highland Technology, Inc

Science teaches us to doubt.

Claude Bernard

 

[Bill Sloman]

On Tuesday, April 7, 2020 at 11:04:42 PM UTC+10, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:

On Mon, 6 Apr 2020 22:22:00 -0700 (PDT), whit3rd <whit3rd@gmail.com
wrote:

On Monday, April 6, 2020 at 6:48:12 PM UTC-7, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Mon, 6 Apr 2020 12:13:16 -0700 (PDT), whit3rd <whit3rd@gmail.com
wrote:

Simulations aren't a true-false proposition. They cannot be adjudged 'wrong'
unless in comparison with another simulation.

They are wrong if their predictive utility is zero, or less. They are
wrong is they result in harmful public policy.

Is a tax a 'harmful public policy'? Shutdowns are somewhat damaging, true,
but we DO NOT KNOW future facts except through our thoughts, which
are simulations. You toss out all 'simulations', you don't have any
useful intelligence to apply to a situation. Neither does a newborn babe.

I make most of my living through simulations. It improves my
engineering productivy by 5:1 at least. We've gotten pretty good at
it.

We simulate in Spice, Python, VHDL, and PowerBasic. We use E/M
simulators now and then. We don't have any good 3D thermal simulators,
so we guess or breadboard thermals.

What I "toss out" is bad simulations, ones that fail miserably at
prediction of future system states. Or ones that produce wildly
different predictions for tiny changes in parameters or initial
conditions.


Adults should be able to do better.

Do the courageous thing for once, give a specific example.

Example of a bad simulation? The Population Bomb.

Actually the Club of Rome work, which started around 1972 with what turned out to be a rather bad model.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Club_of_Rome

> All the stuff that Al Gore predicted based on The Science.

Al Gore never predicted anything. He popularised work by quite respectable scientists, which has been vigorously attacked ever since by the denialist propaganda machine, which is devoted to the idea that the people who pay for the propaganda should be able to keep on digging fossil carbon and selling it as fuel until they've done some serious damage to the global climate.

John Larkin is a gullible twit and takes their nonsense seriously.

> The course of this virus.

Which particular bad prediction did you have in mind?

Since you don't seem to have paid any attention to any of them, this is even more fatuous than your usual claims

The stock market. The price of gold or sugar or condos. Next year's
snowpack.

None of them are susceptible to precise simulation.

If it's real, human experience MUST have an example.

Far too many.

None of which John Larkin can list.

--
Bill Sloman Sydney

 

[dcaster@krl.org]

On Tuesday, April 7, 2020 at 12:03:05 AM UTC-4, Jasen Betts wrote:

On 2020-04-06, dcaster@krl.org <dcaster@krl.org> wrote:
On Monday, April 6, 2020 at 3:56:31 AM UTC-4, Tom Gardner wrote:
On 06/04/20

All true, but I'm more interested in what actions cause those
numbers to move in the right direction.

Absolutely amazing. No one responded to my post.

[broken paraphrase of the questiuon trimmed]

It looked very much like a trick question.

--
Jasen.

Sorry, it was not intended to be a trick question.

We are going to remove the current restrictions at some point and it seems like no one is thinking about what is the best way to do that.

The US has a population of about 330 million people so each day is about 904000 man years. So there is a lot of incentive to end the current restrictions and I doubt if we will wait as long as the medical expert would like. But we are likely going to keep the restrictions longer than the waiters and barbers want.

Dan

 

[whit3rd]

On Tuesday, April 7, 2020 at 6:04:42 AM UTC-7, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:

On Mon, 6 Apr 2020 22:22:00 -0700 (PDT), whit3rd <whit3rd@gmail.com
wrote:

You toss out all 'simulations', you don't have any
useful intelligence to apply to a situation. Neither does a newborn babe.

I make most of my living through simulations.

What I "toss out" is bad simulations, ones that fail miserably at
prediction of future system states.

Why not those simulations? Such systems DO EXIST. There are
no predictions of which atom in a lump of radium will decay
next, so we have a conundrum called Schrodinger's Cat, where
the models give... more than one outcome. They give the outcome
probabilistically.

Do the courageous thing for once, give a specific example.

Example of a bad simulation? The Population BomB

Addressed by China's 'one child' program, and seems to be causing
a bit of uncomfortable global warming, and unanticipated amounts of
plastic waste killing off ocean life.
We see a new fast-traveling plague that takes advantage of urban density..
Refugee crowds and scatterings of genocides against inconvenient
neighboring tribes... in short, intolerable crowding.
All these are unintended harm, and scale with population.
It's the bomb going off.

All the stuff that
Al Gore predicted based on The Science.

That's content-free spin, specifics only need apply.

> The course of this virus.

We don't need all the outbreak info on a map, we need a plan for an extended
battle. Growth-curve is the winner. Offer something more useful if you can,
but don't ignore the growth-curve analysis, it just makes you look like... a newborn baby.

Instead of thinking quickly, try to think deeply You are missing a lot of possibilities,
and these short sound-bite phrases are only the book covers, not the full text. Did
you READ the full text?

 

[Ricky C]

On Tuesday, April 7, 2020 at 11:01:33 AM UTC-4, dca...@krl.org wrote:

On Tuesday, April 7, 2020 at 12:03:05 AM UTC-4, Jasen Betts wrote:
On 2020-04-06, dcaster@krl.org <dcaster@krl.org> wrote:
On Monday, April 6, 2020 at 3:56:31 AM UTC-4, Tom Gardner wrote:
On 06/04/20

All true, but I'm more interested in what actions cause those
numbers to move in the right direction.

Absolutely amazing. No one responded to my post.

[broken paraphrase of the questiuon trimmed]

It looked very much like a trick question.

--
Jasen.

Sorry, it was not intended to be a trick question.

We are going to remove the current restrictions at some point and it seems like no one is thinking about what is the best way to do that.

The US has a population of about 330 million people so each day is about 904000 man years. So there is a lot of incentive to end the current restrictions and I doubt if we will wait as long as the medical expert would like. But we are likely going to keep the restrictions longer than the waiters and barbers want.

Yeah, this hits a few very, very hard. I guess I'll be tipping extra when this is over.

I don't have a clue as to which industry to open at which point. I do think we need to consider both the need of the industry as well as the likelihood that the infection will spread at work. Assembly line workers who are 20 feet parts should not be a problem. Desk jockeys who are barely 6 feet apart shouldn't be back to work until this is completely cleared up.

I think a more important issue is how to help businesses that have gone bankrupt in the meantime. Smaller companies don't have the resources to pay rent and salaries when no money is coming in the door. Even if they get loans, by the time this is over and they are back to work, they may be so in debt they won't survive.

Not sure we can do anything for many of them. This is like a world wide natural disaster and there's no one left to help those who bore the brunt because it was all of us.

Got a big storm blowing in. Lots of thunder and wind.

--

Rick C.

-+ Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
-+ Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

 

[mpm]

On Tuesday, April 7, 2020 at 4:03:28 PM UTC-4, Ricky C wrote:

Got a big storm blowing in. Lots of thunder and wind.

Speaking of wind....
Let me sum it up.

All of the ideas expressed above, concerning which industries to open, when, and how closely spaced their employees can be, are so impracticable as to be impossible.

Like putting a hole in the dam and trying to dictate which water drops can pour forth.

I strongly suspect the reality will be: When things "start" to get back to normal, it won't be long (hours, days maybe??) before everything's back.

It's human nature.

Engineers like to think they can control human nature, but it's not really possible. At least, not on the grand scale contemplated here.

 

[Lasse Langwadt Christense]

tirsdag den 7. april 2020 kl. 22.03.28 UTC+2 skrev Ricky C:

On Tuesday, April 7, 2020 at 11:01:33 AM UTC-4, dca...@krl.org wrote:
On Tuesday, April 7, 2020 at 12:03:05 AM UTC-4, Jasen Betts wrote:
On 2020-04-06, dcaster@krl.org <dcaster@krl.org> wrote:
On Monday, April 6, 2020 at 3:56:31 AM UTC-4, Tom Gardner wrote:
On 06/04/20

All true, but I'm more interested in what actions cause those
numbers to move in the right direction.

Absolutely amazing. No one responded to my post.

[broken paraphrase of the questiuon trimmed]

It looked very much like a trick question.

--
Jasen.

Sorry, it was not intended to be a trick question.

We are going to remove the current restrictions at some point and it seems like no one is thinking about what is the best way to do that.

The US has a population of about 330 million people so each day is about 904000 man years. So there is a lot of incentive to end the current restrictions and I doubt if we will wait as long as the medical expert would like. But we are likely going to keep the restrictions longer than the waiters and barbers want.

Yeah, this hits a few very, very hard. I guess I'll be tipping extra when this is over.

over?

https://youtu.be/hIbgY1n5bDo?t=3029

 

[mpm]

On Tuesday, April 7, 2020 at 11:01:33 AM UTC-4, dca...@krl.org wrote:

> We are going to remove the current restrictions at some point and it seems like no one is thinking about what is the best way to do that.

I like the way you think, but the possibility remains that it's too optimistic.

For example, remember the "shoe bomber"?
Well, I'm still required to take my shoes off at airport security.

There is always the possibility that the current restrictions are with us for the long haul. Hopefully not.

 

[Ricky C]

On Tuesday, April 7, 2020 at 8:44:52 PM UTC-4, mpm wrote:

On Tuesday, April 7, 2020 at 4:03:28 PM UTC-4, Ricky C wrote:

Got a big storm blowing in. Lots of thunder and wind.


Speaking of wind....
Let me sum it up.

All of the ideas expressed above, concerning which industries to open, when, and how closely spaced their employees can be, are so impracticable as to be impossible.

Like putting a hole in the dam and trying to dictate which water drops can pour forth.

I strongly suspect the reality will be: When things "start" to get back to normal, it won't be long (hours, days maybe??) before everything's back.

It's human nature.

Engineers like to think they can control human nature, but it's not really possible. At least, not on the grand scale contemplated here.

I understand what you are saying. But you are looking at it as if the industries will open because of some economic pressure and decided by management. The trouble is some businesses are much more prone to transmitting infection than others. That's why I mentioned the examples I provided.

We currently have some businesses open and the rate of infection is improving. It still remains to be seen if this is enough. We are a long way from having this disease anything remotely like under control. I think we have reached inflection point in the total cases number which is the first detectable point of progress mathematically speaking.

Some businesses by definition require a fair amount of exposure to diseases.. Massage is a pretty extreme case. Restaurants is another. OMG, look at the woefully inadequate protection at a buffet! Nail salons... the list goes on.

Many desk jobs put people in a confined space where the 6 foot rule is not adequate and all manner of items are handled by everyone. At the store the other day they had a plastic bag over the touch pad for the card reader. It gets changed once a day. Yeah, that's fine protection!

Some jobs don't have a lot of exposure. The delivery guy is fine. Outdoor workers not in close groups are fine. Many factory workers can work far enough away from others so they can be fine. They can be resumed earlier than others.

But some jobs have too much exposure so that they should not be resumed until the infections rates are nearly zero. I can't believe the clerks in stores are still working given their pay level. I guess a lot of people accept the risk.

The dam analogy or talking about "human nature" has little to do with it. Exiting lock down and resuming our normal activities is a matter of epidemiology. That or we return to this same state in a few months.

--

Rick C.

--- Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
--- Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

 

[Ricky C]

On Tuesday, April 7, 2020 at 9:03:27 PM UTC-4, dca...@krl.org wrote:

On Tuesday, April 7, 2020 at 8:30:21 PM UTC-4, mpm wrote:
On Tuesday, April 7, 2020 at 11:01:33 AM UTC-4, dca...@krl.org wrote:

We are going to remove the current restrictions at some point and it seems like no one is thinking about what is the best way to do that.

I like the way you think, but the possibility remains that it's too optimistic.

For example, remember the "shoe bomber"?
Well, I'm still required to take my shoes off at airport security.

There is always the possibility that the current restrictions are with us for the long haul. Hopefully not.

It may be too optimistic, but I do not think it is. There are lots of testing going on. One or more will turn out to be good.

Why is that assured? Research has been going on for many, many years looking for ways to treat and cure viral infections. Relatively little has been found. No magic bullets like antibiotics for bacteria.

--

Rick C.

++ Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
++ Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

 

[dcaster@krl.org]

On Tuesday, April 7, 2020 at 8:30:21 PM UTC-4, mpm wrote:

On Tuesday, April 7, 2020 at 11:01:33 AM UTC-4, dca...@krl.org wrote:

We are going to remove the current restrictions at some point and it seems like no one is thinking about what is the best way to do that.

I like the way you think, but the possibility remains that it's too optimistic.

For example, remember the "shoe bomber"?
Well, I'm still required to take my shoes off at airport security.

There is always the possibility that the current restrictions are with us for the long haul. Hopefully not.

It may be too optimistic, but I do not think it is. There are lots of testing going on. One or more will turn out to be good.

Dan