K
kreed
Guest
On Dec 8, 1:28 pm, Noddy <m...@home.com> wrote:
Let me put it in a nutshell,
I would take the small (in my opinion) risk of the climate getting
much worse
any day over the even greater and fatal risk of putting trust in a
government program or promise.
Even if the climate did go bad, I would rather take on the challenges
of coping with it than EVER
putting my trust in green or government groups.
On 8/12/2011 1:10 PM, Trevor Wilson wrote:
**Why? I don't want to pay a carbon tax. I don't want Sydney Smummers to
get any hotter. I want to be able to go skiing down Thredbo for the next
20 odd years. I don't want to pay higher insurance premiums to cover
more bushfires and floods. I don't want those who come after me to have
to clean up the mess made by my generation.
Fair enough, but in a lot of those cases you'll be paying more
regardless of there being an effect or not. "Climate change" is far to
good a topical whipping boy not to be exploited.
**Not under dispute. Your words suggest that ALL the AGW researchers are
automatically corrupt and that the denialist scientists are pure as
driven snow.
I wasn't suggesting that for a second, and to be honest I can't see how
you would get that from what I've been saying. All I said originally was
that some of the leaked emails coming out of the "climategate" scandal
seem to suggest that some scientists are more concerned with feathering
their nests than anything else.
I accept that there are probably SOME corrupt scientists on
both sides of the debate. The vast majority are likely to be honest.
I couldn't agree more, although it's a little disturbing that some of
the corruption seems to be coming from the upper levels.
**It should be. If there was no dispute about AGW, then the researchers
would be deprived of research funds, since everyone accepts the 95%
probability.
Everyone very definitely does *not* accept the 95% probability. The fact
that in this entire thread you're the *only* one who stands on the pro
climate change side would suggest that those who do accept it are in the
minority.
**Conclusive proof may never be reached. In the 1970s, we were at around
70% certainty. Now we are at 95% certainty. IOn ten years, we may be at
(say) 98%. In 20 years, 99%. In another 50 years, 99.5%. In 100 years,
99.9%. It is an asymptotic curve. 100% certainty may never be reached.
Such is the nature of these things.
And therein lies the problem.
Assuming 100% will never be reached, at what point do YOU consider the
theory acceptable? 96%? 97%? 98%?
I don't put a number on it, because the theory itself is *far* too vague
for mine.
Man *may* be causing an accelerated warming, and that *may* have an
effect on the way we live. We *may* find ourselves with food shortages,
and we *may* find ourselves facing rising water levels. In 30 years time
we *may* find our beachfront properties well under water and we *may*
find ourselves subjected to more flooding, more bushfires, and hotter
weather.
It's like a political promise. There's all kinds of predictions, but
there's sweet fuck all that's definite.
**I did not say: "95% of climatologists". I said that the climatologists
were 95% certain that AGW theory was valid.
Okay. 100% of climatologists are fairly sure, rather than 95%. I beg
your pardon.
**Yes. There is a small amount of doubt. There is, at present, around 5%
doubt.
There's a small doubt in certain circles. There's a much larger doubt in
the broader community, and probably more still who couldn't care less.
**If you consider US$0.75/day/person a "packet", then I suspect you no
longer drive a car, drink beer, drink coffee or smoke fags.
I don't consider 75 cents a day to be a lot of money, but then I don't
think that financial modelling would be accurate. I mean, how do you
accurately cost "changing the environmental state of the entire planet"?
They have to start somewhere and put a price on it, but for all we know
the cost could run into the trillions and the effects would be largely
unknown.
US$0.75/day/person is less than one cigarette per day. Significantly
less than what you and I pay for household insurance right now. Consider
it insurance. In fact, the figure is less than I pay for Greenslip
insurance right now.
Assuming for the sake of the argument that that's how much it costs.
Personally I doubt it, but then I'm sceptical of the whole debate myself.
--
Regards,
Noddy.
Let me put it in a nutshell,
I would take the small (in my opinion) risk of the climate getting
much worse
any day over the even greater and fatal risk of putting trust in a
government program or promise.
Even if the climate did go bad, I would rather take on the challenges
of coping with it than EVER
putting my trust in green or government groups.